Season 2026 Round 20 Preview

[MUSIC] >> G'day, Pantsers. Welcome to another episode of the 'Footy Form God podcast. I'm of course, I was. Wally joined us always by my good mate, Harrow. How are you mate? >> I'm fired up, Wally. >> Absolutely fired up here. Rare ring to go. Let's get into it. >> Let's get stuck in. And there is a reason for that, because we've got a bit of a new segment. We've got something new to announce, which you're going to meet us off with. But before we do that, we start where we always start, Harrow. We're going to look at what was good and bad from last week. What were our highlights on the pun? >> Well, we started off with the crows over the swans. We were quite keen on that. We said that the crows were going over on a mission. And it appeared that that was exactly what they did. And they got the job done for us. So that was pleasing. Here's another one, Wally. And I think this has been, I'm going to say this has been the best play for the year. It's Port V3O. We were over taking on the trend over in the total points in this game. And so Port have been over the total three times this year. Twice, we've been on it when they've gone over. Every other time, we've been on the under. So it's just been a gravy train. The port total points bets. And so we've been able to pick out the couple that they went over. Everything else has been under. That's been a lot of fun. We had the D's as the second best bet on the weekend. I was very keen on that. And they just covered in the end. We got on it 14 and a half. They won by 16. There were some punters who got on later. When the line went up a little bit. And they were very stiff. So with the D's giving up the last three goals in the last three minutes. So but we were fine. In that game, we also had Simpkin and River. So it was a good game for us. Port V. Tigers. We got lucky here. Didn't we, Wally? The last kick of the game was a goal, which sent the total over. You got to recognise sometimes when one goes your way. They don't all go against you. They say we got lucky there. The punters who followed us in with the idea of the Tigers second half line or the last quarter line. They, the Tigers actually won the last quarter, which paid $6. That was nice. We also had Sicily and Toronto over in that game. So that was really good. Now, Wally, this is leading into the new segment that we're going to have. And we're going to create a footy form, guide, hall of fame. All right. And so this people can be nominated right back from the very start of footy form, guide. But basically, the idea is if you've had a big win or a long odds win or just a memorable win and it's come down to the performance of one player, he can be nominated for the hall of fame. And on the weekend, mate, we tipped up in the discord. This was Matt Kennedy to kick two goals was the tip. That was paying $14. And some of the punters in there, they also got on him to kick three, which paid $71. So our first nominee and inducted to the footy form, guide, hall of fame is Matt Kennedy, mate. Very good. How do I want to start? That's going to be so we're going to have a hall of fame and we'll track this and we'll get a graphic up which will be posting. And we will be adding retrospective ones. I've got a couple of the back of my mind already harrowed, but in the coming weeks, we will be adding retrospective ones as well because there's definitely been some absolute crackers over the years. But Kennedy for two and three, I think, guys, he's a good one to go in. What did we miss on the weekend, mate? So we had one bad game for the round, basically. We had, we went pretty light actually throughout throughout the round, but the one game that we got wrong was the pies versus blues and they have, and I open myself up to this and I accept there's been a little bit of feedback from pie supporters, all in good faith, of course. And well down to the pie, so you've got the job done against the blues. That was the one that we got wrong and we also got wrong in that game. I was quite certain, well, not certain because you can't be certain on these things, but I thought that Krippa would get the tag instead of Walsh. And so they went the other way with that one, which I, you know, I tracked this stuff and McCrae's always put the time into Krippa. You know, he's used Pandel's to tag him in the past and Walsh has got a great record against the pies. And so I thought they would continue with that, but they flipped it up. They sent Alan to Krippa and obviously the blues got done by 20 points and we were on the blues at plus six and a half. So and that was, was the best bet. And so that was our worst result for the round, mate. Yeah, absolutely. So I was a good coach, Harold. I'm good coach. I'm a good coach. I want the best. Yeah. I think you should do that. He's got his conference stuff. I just know you're good with coaches. Hey, well, if, if the blues hadn't had Harry McCoy going into that game, it probably changes everything we do. So you've got to acknowledge that as well that like they lost Harry McCoy very early in the game. The blues only, they only went down by one scoring shot. So I'm not beating myself up too much about getting that one wrong. You know, if it hadn't gone the other way, the blues are a little bit more accurate and say, mixed day and lapinski went out. I'm pretty sure the blues would have won. But you know, the blues lost Chera and McCoy. Things went against him and we got done there. Which happens, mate? All right. I did straight to the selection table, a couple of ins, got out here. All right. So first in Wildcard Round is an infamy hero. I've realised that this stupid, silly, unnecessary thing is now that was, it was created just as a distraction for the A foul, just to, you know, distract from all the other things that are going wrong and how bad they're doing. But I'm, I'm keen now because what is happening here? I would have got bagged to get in and have like a carton-congling thing. But the likelihood is one of Melbourne and Jogging are going to be involved. So you got it. You got a team that's playing high quality, ability to play high quality and play high quality for the audience here. Then you're going to have probably Pies Dog Saints. So you have the ability to land on like a Pies Cats Dog Saints scenario. There's no buy round. I'm absolutely, I'm, I mean, I know Wildcard Round now. And I think the reason I'm in on it is that my team's not going to finish seventh or eighth. I think if I finish seventh or eighth, we've got to play again. It's five finals now. Like I just, but the fact that if you're in that six and you look like you're in the six and also you'll be interested if you're fighting for it. The best possible position and finish in Gather round obviously is 9 or 10 because you're usually not involved. But it's just for me, I'm starting to get excited about it. And I've bought in Harrow. So I'm looking forward to Gather round to Wildcard Round this year. All right. Another end for me. End day cost brown low is currently loading. I'm assuming it's in the engravers. He would have got another two or three on the weekend. He must be through four games. Clear. So resign. I thought I'd bring it up. Harrow could just resign yourself to that. He's going to be winning it. And that's all there is. He could have won the last three apart from injury. The creeps thing and the round getting votes when he had 14 touches. But hey, Wally, I cost loading and and so happy about it at my end. How funny will it be if he actually doesn't know? No, I think that no, you just can't be. Do you know it's a fun little stat harrow and not to pile on your blues. But taking out Harrow McCoy, they got injured. Do you know that Nick Day cost everyone goes, I just need you just have a receipt and like uncontested disposal? He had in a game they won more tackles than 10 carton prize. That shouldn't be happening. So I found that an interesting little stat just I feel like occasionally I have to stand up for the calling calling with community. Harrow there. There's such a quiet humble bunch that I feel that sometimes they need a voice. But all right. Well, one other thing that's a massive infamy, the AFL posted an Insta post yesterday with Tony Madra and he's back at home. He's doing well. He's on the mend. He goes, they put me back together and it just made me smile. Because this bloke is just one of the I've had the pleasure of meeting him and having a few beers with him a couple of years ago. And he's genuinely one of the better bloke should make. He's not just that family man, all that like hardworking guy, not just the superstar you sell on the field. So I was so happy to see that. I just wanted to mention that because sort of like there was a lot of news initially and it's been a bit quiet the last few weeks. But it's all positive, which is great Harrow. And apparently he's also the dud to 25% of people who were born in Adelaide in the 1980s or 90s. That should be. He's the king, mate. One out for me this week is a simple one. The giants. The giants have continually been the team that we go if we, they get in, they can make a run. They're the ones that can do some damage. They're the ones that can beat the top teams. And I've worked out, I think we all have, there's no surprise here. Every team they play, they go to that level. I'll give you their ask, this is what they've done. This is who they're beating in their last nine games. Frio, Brisbane, Junglong, Melbourne, lost a Hawthorne by two goals. That's it. Here's who they've lost to. Sincilda, West Coast, Carleton and Essenden. Make sense of that. So that for me is an out. They have not, this is more, I don't think they can become a betting pro. It's so hard. How do you bet on a team like that? They're actually backing against their line every time. That's the other option. Because they started as a heavy enough underdog against the teams they beat and they started a heavy enough favourite against the teams to us too. So backing against their line and probably be pretty safe. Well, I think that's the section table for this week, Harrow. Yeah. I think the giants are right down the bottom on the line ladder. So that sort of backs up your point. They are. Yeah. Absolutely. All right. Now, questions from the punters, Harrow. There's a bit of feedback for you on calling what I want by the getting into all of that. Robby wants to know your thoughts on backing brown low favourites that have big games towards the end of the year. He reckons of work well for him last year. Do we do it again this year? We spoke about it on the party last year. I'm pretty sure. Yeah. And they're definitely is a bit of feeding. It goes on of the brown low guys, especially when the game gets a little bit dead. They can be the ones that are, you know, their coaches aren't going to give them that little bit of rest or anything like that. They try and just squeeze a few more out of themselves. So yeah, Robby is correct with that. It's definitely worth following. But, you know, at the moment, I mean, nobody's probably riding themselves off it as a brown low chance if you're in the top five. And it does look like, you know, Nick Daikos, obviously a very heavy favourite now. So he will definitely be one to follow in terms of that sort of stuff. But you're not going to be getting any, any easy sort of lines for Daikos. No. All right. Next one, general bookie double question. What happens if you ever, is obviously, oh, shit, does happen with that. A payout or a pick him as a winner? Well, I think this is, I had to read this couple of times, but we're just asking you a simple question. If you have a bookie payout, they pay you out, you withdraw the money and then the bet changes. So there's a change to that bet. What happens to the money? Yeah. Well, that your account will go into deficit, basically, and you'll owe the bookie that money. As it probably should. So they will ask you to pay it back. I would imagine you can refuse to or you can pay it back. But if you refuse to look, you're probably going to get, there's every chance that they will, you know, you'll probably get a letter or something like that to that effect because and then, yeah, who knows where it goes from there. But really, I like to play fair with most things. And so if it was me, I'll just square the account. And most likely, if you do that, you'll probably get a nice, like, generous free bet as, you know, from the bookie, especially if the bookies like, we're if they're way, they will go, okay, he's done the right thing. Here's a free bet. That's what I reckon probably should happen most of the time. I had a account with a British, a, like bookmaker back long time ago now that went into deficit with this sort of thing happening. And in the end, I paid, I just paid the money back. And now you let me keep betting with them for ages after that. So that was an end up doing pretty well out of the account. So I don't know. If it goes, if it goes the other way, like you'd expect the same, wouldn't you? Basically. What are your actual goals? And sometimes, for example, let's say a player got upgraded two days later on Champion Data and that pushed them over their underline. They probably wouldn't vote and reverse that bet anyway, would they? Oh, don't know about that. I mean, the rules are that they go by the AFL starts and Champion Data starts. I mean, and it like you got to expect sometimes they go your way, maybe occasionally you'll go against you as well. I feel like you've just got to take the good with the bad. But I understand, like some people might, you know, we've drawn that money and spend it and they don't have it to give back. So what are you doing that situation? Maybe it's the bookies error or whatnot. I don't know. It's a tricky one. But if you can, just like you said, some risk occasionally. Yeah. And some of that risk isn't just they got someone want to bet. Some of his is that they stuffed up. True. And I think that occasionally you just got to own it. But that's it. That's another thing. All right. What have we got here? Harrow mentioned adjusting for last week. Is that an index you keep or just a mental note watching some games some weeks? Harrow. Yeah. Like I try to adjust the score for if everything played out normally, how what the scoreline should be. So obviously there's expected scoring from scoring shots, which is why way to do it as well. So you're always looking at that. That gives a pretty good adjustment for like if there was normal kicking. I don't keep like an index of it, but it's more something when I'm looking at the form, I try and go, well, how would this have looked if they didn't get, you know, a 24 to 8 free kick count with, you know, five goals coming from free kicks and things like that. And I just keep it in my mind that that performance probably wasn't as bad as what it looks. And when I'm doing my form going forward, take it into account basically. Yeah. Fair enough too. Last one, Bradley Hill plays it forward every time I have him for the overs. Can you predict how Ross will use him this week? Probably one to discuss during the game. I reckon Harrow on that one just as a, I don't give you that as a precursor. But if you've got something off top of the head, go for it. I'll have a look at his hatemap and come back to it during the game. Right. All right. Let's get started. And before we go to the game, so just remind you again, if you're watching on YouTube, make sure you're subscribing to the YouTube channel. Obviously helps us, but also means you get notifications when this drops. Now, speaking about pods dropping if you're not in the discord yet, it's worth checking it out. Having a crack, as you said, there's some big winners in there that aren't just going to be everywhere else. Obviously, everybody gets the pod, but we try and go above and beyond for that discord with previews. We've got an extra podcast that goes out on a Friday morning post teams that we put out. It was a really chunky one this week. Harrow with a lot in there. The worked out to be really, really fruitful for our discord. On top of that, they get the pot a bit earlier. There's a lot of, there's a lot of benefits. So we've run competitions out there. So the discord Instagram on X at the top there in the bio is their pin to the top of it. It's easy enough to get involved and you can always reach out if you need help. All right. Let's get stuck in. We've got Adirade Coynewood on Thursday night, which is an absolute cracker. Adirade's $1.43. Coynewood's $2.84. The line is $14.5. Over there is different gravy. Adirade are flying. You spoke about this a couple of months ago, man, and you spoke about it earlier in the season. They are building for finals. They don't want to just go and win a minor premiership and then fall off a cliff. They are genuinely building to try and have a crack up winning a flag. And they're doing about as good a job as you could. They've got themselves in a box seat that if anybody slips up in front of them, they'll finish in the top four and they've just gone into Sydney and beaten them. Yeah. Yeah. No, I'm very impressed with what the crows have been doing. And obviously they've won five of their last six and we've been following them most weeks. Look, the one thing that firstly came to my mind here is that the pies are off a five day break. And I reckon five day breaks when you get to around 20, they mean a little bit. Okay. Like you can get a five day break in round three. It's not the same as getting a five day break in round 20. So little advantage, therefore the crows also, crows being at home. So you add those two together. There's definitely, you know, you've got to think if you're going to give them for home ground advantage and a bit of an extra break, if you're going to give them 10 points, say, you could pick a number. But say I'm going to give them 10 points. Is that really just five points between these two teams? I don't think so. So although the pies have been getting the job done lately, they haven't had this quality of opposition to deal with for a while now. And perhaps that's that's making them a little bit overrated here. So I like the pies. I'm sorry. I like the crows minus. 14 and a half. Also, yeah, I'm not getting carried away with the pies win over Carlton. I think once you adjust that for scoring shots in injuries and stuff, they don't really come out ahead or fire ahead. They were definitely more efficient and you've got to give them some credit for that. But I didn't, I think if you played that game 10 times, they're probably not winning it more than six times. Put it that way. To total points in this one, the line is low and it's not going to be playing back conditions. But you've got to have a look at the previous contests between these two teams and they've been on the low scoring side. Even though I know the pies are trying to play a bit more with a bit more flare at the moment, you know, I did listen to Fly's presser and he did emphasize the fact that they enjoy trying to defend these skinny grounds. And he mentioned defense like quite a few times. So and also their game was quite defensive on the weekend against the Blues. Even though the pies still scored well, that was mainly down to accuracy. So they didn't generate a heap of scoring shots. Like one of our favorites, Wally's not quite a whole fame level, but yeah, but Isaac Rankin, we've been on him the last couple of weeks and he's gone 2731 and 30. Fly was asked who's going to get the tag this week. And the first player that came out of his mouth was Rankin. He said, he said, look, Isaac Rankins in great form. He said, and then he said Jordan Dawson, he moves position quite a lot and he's so he's hard to tag. So I'm just going to stay out of both Dawson and Rankin this week because I'm kind of guessing at who's going to get that job. One guy is Warrill, right? We mentioned last week that he had a bad matchup with Robo on him, likely to get a job on him. Now he gets a really good matchup in the pies and he hasn't had a good matchup for a while. So I'm happy to back him to get 21 disposals here. Text is a guy who interests me mate. They're freshening him up. I think he might be on the verge of some sort of record, is he? Do you know anything about this wall? Because it's, we saw it with Tom Lynch on the weekend that Tigers were trying to get him a goal. I think there is some record that Texas chasing in his close to it, but I can't remember what it is. Now he's $2 to kick two and Foggedy's out of the side too. So he could get a bit more ball directed to him. If you think he has a bit of a birthday party, he's paying $29 to kick five. He's done that twice this season already. But I like the two goals for text anyway. I just, on Tiger Walker, he needs one goal for 700. Okay, right. That's what it is. Well, they'll try and get that out of the way early, probably if they get the opportunity to feed him an early one. So when you're back in a guy to kick two, you know, they're going to try and get him one at least. Yeah, I feel like that's not a bad area. Just a little note, like in terms of guys like Josh Daykos. Now he, the crows are the toughest team in the comp for backs to rack up easy disposals again. So I could look under Josh Daykos at 25.5 or you know, he's actually a little bit of down. I think he'll play, but also there's the other guys like Houston, how these types of guys, if you get all the lines aren't really out yet, but they're all guys that I consider the unless for as well. All right, no worries, mate. We'll move on to Friday night games in the AFL and there. We just can't be a part, we'll just can't pump up for the wild card now. They've hidden the Western Derby on a C again, Harrow. So now that is officially, I believe it's a showdown on two Derby's. They've hidden on Friday night backs of access season. But before we get to that, we've got Melbourne V. Jalong Harrow, Melbourne or a $1.84 Jalong's two bucks, the lines one and a half. This is on the MCG. This is basically a pick him game, mate. This is a huge one. Massive this one, Wally. Absolutely massive game. And I'm probably called this game at around our Ecken. Really looking forward to watching it just as a neutral. I love the way the days play. And so look, I'm just looking forward to this game just as a spectacle and working out who wins. Now, when the lines came out and everything, the days were actually underdog getting a three point start. And I was very keen on that. It's flipped now and the days are giving a one point start. I still like the days based on, look, they play very good at the MCG and their forms really good too. And Jalong are running into a couple of little hurdles now. Now, when I first, when this game first came up, I thought this is looking like best bet territory. I still like it, but I've had a bit of a deeper thing about it. And although Jalong will have a few guys out, they're still going to have a very solid team on the park, Wally. Like you've got to think about that. Alright, guys are going out, but they're bringing in like AFL footballers. So they're definitely going to be still super competitive. I just think the days will edge them here. The other thing that came to my attention was the DJ Turner's going to be out. And I rate this guy so highly, Wally, he's an absolute wall in defense. And I reckon he's the big reason why the days have stopped conceiting big scores. And why their defences working so well. So don't underestimate DJ Turner being out. But having said that, still like the days, okay. Also, there's a few opportunities opening up for some lesser likes for the cats with the, with a few like main ball winners being out. And we saw, we saw the warpedo get I think 24 or 25 on the weekend. So he got a bit of a, he got to step up into a main role in there. There was also Clark, who had a big game. But I couldn't really work out what role he was playing. So that was a little bit of a tricky one like he didn't have high center bounce numbers or anything like that. And it was a really high disposal game. So mainly I think it was Wawpool who got the, the more opportunity on the weekend. And now Holmes goes out. That should only increase, basically. Little doubt in my mind that Mullin will go to Cosy. So you can go under Cosy if you like or you can, you can just stay away from Cosy. Gone. This is an interesting one, Wally, because I watched Marshall get 30 plus against, against the cats on the weekend. And when I'm watching that, I was just thinking, like, can't wait to back Maxie. Gone next week. They have said he's lined a 23.5 there. And he's only got there twice. He's only got to 24 twice this season. So they have adjusted for it really. And forced to bet I'd probably still lean over, but you got to understand, you know, I was looking forward to this one, but I thought his line would be where it's been most of the season around that 21 mark. So you are giving up a little bit there. Now the days have a little weakness to small forwards. And the cats have a few down there as well. The one I've picked out here is, look, Sean Madam might not play. So I've looked outside of him and it's Jack Martin, who I think will be coming back fresh is $2.65 to kick two. And he's done that three of his last four games. Down the other end, the cats actually also struggle against small forwards. And let's roll pick it is $2 for a goal. He's gone 21 and to the last three weeks. So there's a few areas for the punters. If you want to have a disposal or a goals bet, but otherwise I'll be cheering on the days, mate. Alright, then as we spoke about how we move over to the West for the Derby. Frayos at $1.07 West Coast, eight bucks. The lines 42 and a half. I don't know. I reckon the Eagles could show up here and force a bit of a game. And I think they'll be winning. But like when they've looked all right, they've actually looked all right. And at home at times they've been pretty good. Do we think they can give a side here? Just hard, I think this time here with these teams that are up the top. And we saw Frayos didn't look that interested in trying to bury poor Adelaide out all on the way. They kind of just coasting I reckon through this part of the season right now. So you've got to be a little bit careful. If we had full confidence at Frayos, we're going to turn up and you know, want to have a full crack here. You'd be probably keen on them. But these mode of, when you get these motivational issues, it's quite hard to bet confidently. So I'm probably just leaving that one at the line there. I do agree like Frayos will win. But West Coast has showed a lot. I think they're leading the line ladder this season. So they've been the most underrated side by the bookies this season. They again won't have the line on the weekend against the line. So they're definitely showing a bit. Now there's one little area. And we mentioned it last week with playing the Zorco Unders. Like West Coast are doing this weekend week out now. And they're bottom three to conceding to defensive ball users, they're using a tagger as a high-half forward, basically. And the guy who makes most sense this week would be Clark for Frio, so you could look to play his unders or his month to avoid. I'm also interested in will the dockers continue to rest players, as they did with Shai Bolton, but also if they do rest to play out, that's the player I'm probably keen to support the following week. And Alton at 22.5, I'd be happy to back his over, as he's coming off a rest, he's likely to get a full crack. And apart from that, Wally, I'm not liking a hell of a lot in this game. Fair enough to, Harrah, but I will say this, if you're West Coast, you're not going to win this game, you're also not playing Wild Card of Finals. Surely the Derby is the last game that you throw everything out and have a crack. So as you say, whereas Frio probably just want to get the job done, get the points, they got bigger fish to fry. And I even know it is a Derby. I can't imagine them just absolutely playing it out to the death if they're up by a lot. Could we have another live bet opportunity, Harrah, if they're up by a lot at half time, pre-quarter time, West Coast to finish off strongly? Yeah. Never know. All right, move on. Go to Saturday's games and we start with Count and Gold Coast. I'm really keen to hear your thoughts because it's such a tricky one because Gold Coast are just a head case. And I feel like you've had, yeah, Colin, we were good. I mean, you had a Hawthorne in the way that you can put a line for that. But this is the game where maybe it just gets back on track. Or if you just now drop off a cliff and just secure a Walker and worry about picks. All right, Count is $1.67. Gold Coast is $2.21. The line's $6.5. Talk to us about the baggers and the suns and what can happen here? I guess my first thoughts go to the suns. And I think if you're losing to an underman, doggie side who have poor profile, if you're losing to them on your home deck, like really, you're not backable. And all even though you look at the names on paper, and their team looks all right, you've just got to look at the overall performance in the form and it stinks for the suns. And now they travel away into state and they'll turn up to Marvel with most likely a full house of cult and supporters. And they just don't look interested enough. I mean, they kind of looked interested in the first half against the dogs, but when the game was kind of on the line, they just showed nothing at all. It was very disappointing from their point of view where their seasons ended up and it does look to me like they've kind of given up. So they come up against Carlton who looked to be frank that their form has dropped off in the last three weeks if you look at it, you know, a narrow win against the Tigers who have been belted since. Obviously, I kind of have been a slack for losing to the Hawks in the wet and then an average performance against the pies on the weekend. So you can't have full confidence, but I'm happy to be with the team that saves me playing the more spirited football and that's the blues at minus six and a half at home. Just looking at some players, I do like back in a guy who's coming off a tag who's unlikely to get one the following week and that would be Welsh this week. So happy to look there now. The blues are very restrictive to defenders and noble is the guy who you probably want to target his un there's at 25 and a half and he's got a terrible record away from home to noble. He doesn't like to travel. So, but you could look at and also when you're putting your bets together, just be aware that yeah, you're all one brothers in these types of guys aren't likely to rack up the big numbers they have recently just with the way that the blues pressure the opposition backs. So keep that one in mind. Now this guy, Riholi returned to the team and it impacted his role. That was Joel Jeffrey and he moved to the forward line with Riholi coming back. So keep an eye out for a goal bet or potential unders bet for him. If McCoy doesn't come back into the sidewall, this is a bit speculative and you want to wait for teams. But I could see a situation where Dirkson goes forward and maybe like a Lewis Young comes in and plays defense and I know that Dirkson is, I think he's $2.25 for a goal at the moment, but if you wait and get some clarity around the teams, that could be a good area to play. And they also, the sun's defense is so leaky. You know, that guys goal kicker bets against the suns have been going well. So here's a guy from the suns, so that I like. They kind of handed the keys to the midfield back to took Miller on the weekend. Most of the season he's been getting 25% type CBAs and on the weekend he had 87% he played a full game in the midfield and he had almost four tip possessions. And I use this as a bit of a guide, Riholi, whether I think a guy's going to continue in that role. And that guide is coaches votes. He got coaches votes on the weekend. And so I think with a line of 24.5, I think that they keep him in there and he will cruise over that. So there's a few play bets, but otherwise locking the blues to win by a goal or more. All right, great. All right. Okay. And then on Saturday we go to the twilight game. We've got the, so we've got the double twilight. And again, this is the thing we're hiding. We're hiding the Sydney Derby or Derby or whatever we're calling that one or better than the bridge or whatever they call it here. So you got that, you got that kicking off 20 minutes after the Hawthorneesland game. So we're just, we just hide into state games. How are we? Does my head in? I love watching these games. Showdown Derby. I don't care about the cue clash. I reckon that's kind of like meh, but Jato EOS and Sydney hate each other. So it's any, when you got two teams that hate each other, Hawthorne, Jaronne, Carlton, Collingwood, these other interstaters, it's great. It's absolutely great. And then they hide it from behind. And of course, hide them on the game. I'm going to be out. Anyway, Hawthorne's a dollar, I'm free. S and it's 1250. Like it would be 50 for and a half points. I mean, that like the record of since they've been taking bets on games, I think $12 is the biggest upset price. So it's like water our angles here. I mean, and the other thing is that Essin and they had their win. Good. I'm sure we've been celebrating each, I mean, they are not going to be ready for this game. They are not coming into this one. They're like, we got our win. Richmond's not winning again, mother books of it. We're not going to win the Spoon. Few, let's just try and stem the breeding a little bit. So we don't lose too much percentage. Yeah. So this one's at the G, isn't it? Yeah. There's a tiny little weather watch on it, just looking at 0 to 4 mil on Saturday. So I don't think it's really going to play a factor, but just keep it in mind when you around this game, if you're looking at your total points on the day or what, not just be aware of that one. But I've kind of proven this game as if it's going to be dry. Anyway, it probably will be. Last week, anyone who followed the advice on the Richmond second half line or fourth quarter line, Hawthorne have had the draw fakes. So just remember that that's the biggest factor and we saw them definitely put the queue in the rack at three quarter time. They look like they played pretty normal third quarter. Yeah. But hopefully the fourth quarter, they put their feet up. And also, I mentioned this to some of our, in my preview that I put on the discord as well, just be like, you got to be careful around guys like Newcombe, because I saw him earlier in the season. They gave him a bit of a light run in the fourth quarter when they were well ahead against S and that was before they had their draw. And I'm sure some punters out there got stung by Newcombe not having one touch in the last quarter against Richmond. So you got to think about who they might put on ice, who the guys are that they can't really replace and all that sort of stuff as well. But also you could just follow the same bets as last week and with having, you know, S and then in the fourth quarter line, you're probably going to get a 14 point start, something like that. Yeah. That's definitely on the table. And also you can wait and do it live in case the games close at three quarter time, you don't really want to be on that type of bet, but likely won't be. We're looking also here. Oh, look, Wally, it wasn't it nice to see Zach Merritt back playing in the midfield on the weekend, where he should have been all along. I don't know what was going on in previous weeks, but they put him back in the midfield. He had his 35. He looked fantastic and Hawthorne who don't really tag through the midfield here, he can get merit over 27.5. Sissley is another guy. I'm happy to run him back again, Wally, especially with the idea that the Hawks can go into a bit of chip mark mode and especially in the second halves. And we saw Sissley have 15 in the second half on the weekend when they decided to to take the sting out of the game and just control the footy. So, sisterly again, Connor McDonald isn't he looking good at the moment, Wally? He really enjoyed Will Day's absence. He's had 30 plus the last two games. He's CBA's jumped up from 20% to 45% and he's had 33 disposals. You can get him over 23.5. Now, this is an interesting one, Wally. Mitch Lewis. He is $1.78 to kick two goals if you shop around. Not all bookies are offering that, but there's definitely a couple are offering $2 about Mitch Lewis to kick $1.78. He looks to me like a guy that the Hawks are trying to fatten up his trade value coming into the back end of the year. They've definitely prioritized him on the weekend. I'll tell you what, if you're gonna have goal bets, it's nice to have him on a bloke who knows how to kick. He's set shut, routine, and everything what he does is phenomenally kicks down. He barely misses. So that always helps when you're back a guy to kick a couple of goals. That's where I'm gonna be in this one, Wally. Probably gonna be a one-sided one, but there's definitely some player angles there for the punters. - Probably gonna stay in our harrow, just saying, oh, they're looking at the, they want to talk to his recommitted, so just the heads up. Well, I don't know if we're fattening trade value or whatever. But everyone's got an opinion across the line. By the way, like some of these journals, I just all over the place, I reckon what should have to happen. If you come out one week and go, this person's going there and then they don't. If you're a journal and you're getting paid to do it, like the AFL players, I reckon you just gotta go, I reckon you owe it to your audience to have an explanation and go, "Look, this is what happened, "this is why I got it wrong." And not a BS one like we get, like Karen, Sam and Coulgate. I'm talking about a real one. Tommy Morris has given a couple. Mitch Coulgate doesn't get a huge amount wrong, so it doesn't need to be like, "Can actual, they might have barred, I've heard them." Like just don't listen to John Ruff, he just will not, he will come in a week late and wrong or super super-light if it's right. We know that with him, right? We just know that team, that team, that team's like he's sticked. And it's sort of, "I hear Alvis A.J. doing these things." "Oh, yeah, it's fun." Tweet this, Tweet that. He even, you know, he even creating all that with the stuff. He's had to go at some of the new media and then he just continually stuff stuff himself. But my thing is, like so much chat. So Ben King is now going with three different cubs, Mitchell's sustaining and signing. And multiple people have gone, "I don't know what's gonna happen. "I can't, I don't give a shit at this point, Harrow." Like, "Well, wait and see. "We're gonna have an over-rice key forward next year, "whichever way, okay." "Do you know what I find funny as well?" When one of the journalists get it right, they all celebrate like, "Oh, right." "It's not about you, son. "Like, who gives a shit?" They're all celebrating Tom Morris for breaking the story about Kenny Hinckley. I found that. I like Tommy Ben. No, well, that was just five of it. I found that so funny. Yeah, they're all getting, "Congratulating your wards." That's what you do behind closed doors. Do that at the awards. Do that, all of that sort of stuff. Do that in your world. Like, honestly, let's just celebrate Ken and what it means for Tasmania. Yeah, they make it about themselves so much. It's so funny. All right, John's take on Sydney. John's a $2.41, Sydney's a $1.57. The line's 10 and a half points, Harrow. I love these games. Sydney have had the wood over them. We know that, GWAS did get that win in there. That was that comeback win that we saw while it was that last year. But it's out at the show grounds. So this is huge. So Sydney glues this. They are not finishing top two. That's because Brisbane or Hawthorne, the winner of Brisbane or Hawthorne will go past them. Yeah. So that's the bottom line. And other teams, I mean, the other teams are a little bit further. There's a big percentage gap, so they should be fine. If GWAS win this, they can still make the 10. If they lose this and so forth. There's actually a lot on the line between these two, which is great. Yeah. I really had to trust GWAS, so sorry. Yeah. I actually had it in my notes all the stuff you talked about earlier about GWAS. So I won't go back over that. But yeah, it is hard to fathom the teams that they've beaten to and the teams that they've lost. So, but I just look at the, this one's actually, I bet critical of their form for a little while now. We've opposed them a couple of times to good effects. But when I look at the Adelaide game, they looked only lost by one scoring shot. And I do believe that the crows are hot right now. And so I think the swanies aren't a bad bounce back spot this week. They also often ate a day break with no travel. So they'll be fully wound up, Wally, for this. And I think that the swanies, with a line of 10.5, I'm happy to be with them here. I mean, there's two possibilities. The Giants show up fully. And I play the best footage they've played all year and it's close at this line. Or they don't show up and the swans brain this line. So I'm just happy to be with the swans either way. I don't think there's any risk if the swanies not show enough here. Also, you've got to look at the teams and how close to full strength they are. And obviously Toby Green now goes out as well for the Giants. And he's a massive out. Let's be honest. But you also read the list of the names that you can go on the AFL website and go through the list. But it's extensive, mate. They've got a very good team in the outskollum at the moment. And you'll look at the swanies. To me, they're only missing a couple, but they've also got reasonable replacements for those types of guys like McLean is out. Oh, sorry, Amari is out, but he's replaced by McLean. That's not a big downgrade. Wix is out, but he's replaced by a cunning ham, not a big downgrade. McLean is a little bit of an out, but they've been able to bring back Golden. So I don't think the swanies really have too many excuses here. Play a bet. I think the obvious tag, so to say, is Calla-Han. Jordan will go to him and he's done it the last two times and he's kept him to 21 and 26 those last two times. And he's lines 27.5. So you're happy to play the Unders? The swan's also like to play close attention to Wicfield. And he's lines 28.5. He's only been over that once and he's last eight goes against the swans. And when he did it, he got there with the bear 29. So that's another area that the swanies, they will like to try and clamp those, those good ball users off half black. Oliver made his an interesting one. But he's sent about the attendance numbers down over the last two weeks. And I did listen to King his talk about him. And he said that they're trying to develop him to be able to play a little bit forward when he's not on the ball. And he only had the 23 against the Don's. And we did a good job avoiding him because I think a lot of punters would have dived into Oliver. But just with those low center bounce numbers, he's one to keep an eye on it avoid. Heaney, he's obviously in good form while he went, he did the job for us on the weekend. Now, when these two teams played each other back in, I think it was about round eight. Ryan Angu and got a tagging job on Heaney. Heaney still had 28 disposals. And he's lines 27.5 now. Now the giants are giving up the third most disposals in the comp to inside mids. And also it's number one across the last five games. So I'm happy to play Gouldon. I'm happy to play Warner and Heaney and thinking that at least two out of the three will go over if not all three. So I think there's a bit of a strategy there. Papley is another guy I want to mention. He's on fire. He's come back full of run and vigor. And he's $2.30 to kick two, which he kicked, I think four or five on the way, Cam. He's he's kicked two plus in all of his last three full games. And I think perhaps he'll be fired up for this one and happy to give him a chance at $2.30. Yeah, very good show. Well, we all right, so they know me yet. Western Bulldogs are a Richmond. Don't know how many of that game are I just quietly? Western Bulldogs are a dollar 10. Richmond seven bucks the lines 41.5. Yeah, I like the Tigers here, mate, put it simply. What triggers this is we saw Wes Coast come and play the Doggy's at Marvel only a fortnight ago. And to my eye, the West Coast should have won that. I think they had five more scoring shots, something like that, top my head. And I feel like the Tigers are capable of matching that type of performance. But even if they can't, they don't have to because they're getting a 41.5 start against the team that I haven't seen much really strong form from the Doggy. So for quite a while now, even their wins, Wally, they've got question marks on them. So I'm happy to be with the Tigers getting a 41 point start. They're obviously trying, you know, so un. un sort of test and players in roles and things like that. So it comes with a bit of risk that like if you look at their midfield rotations on the weekend they often had like three guys in there with under 25 games or 50 games or whatnot but they still have a bit of experience around to to shore them up and if the Tigers turn up here mate I give them a sneaky chance actually winning but I'm happy just to play the 41 and a half start. Outside of that we know that K forwards can pose issues for the doggies they don't have like a gun key defender down there and Tommy Lynch made his is a dollar and I need to kick two. I just don't see a great matchup for him and if the Tigers can provide a fair few more opportunities for him than what they've provided in the last few weeks and Tom can actually put his kicking boots on. I like him for two plus and they do like they every now and then they do cough up a bag the doggies and I'm not saying this is going to happen but just for an example like he's $101 to kick six so it's a little bit of a speculative off it's a very speculative one but mainly focusing on Lynch to kick two. Another one we saw on the weekend and this goes back to the coach's votes Wally like I said before if something pops up in there I reckon they run it back again and Matt Kennedy just to kick the one is a dollar 80 this week I think he'll play that role again. He got coach's votes last week and he kicked three the good thing about him he's a very nice set shot Wally and he can mark overhead so I feel like he's a good chance to kick at least one and it's a dollar 80 if he does that. Bayley Williams I want to mention him Wally he was the main beneficiary of day all going out of the side and he got 29 disposals and that was in a game where the team only got 300 in total now the dogs are likely to have many more than 300 against the Tigers and the Tigers are actually a great match up for the defensive ball user type player and with a line of 21.5 I'm very happy to be over that and also Wally if you wanted to get involved in a higher line he's paying $7.50 to get 30. Right I got one more here for you it is buslinger now he took 50% of the kickouts on the way canned so he's got a bit of a bump in that and that was without Dale being there so looking where the kickouts are going he's line is 17.5 and with a good match up here I don't actually mind him as a player I think he looks a lot of use is good for a tall back happy to play that too mate. I said you off air and I'm just I'll mention it now so I said you off air am I over at stat mate post today a stat today over 30% of Bayley Dale's disposal this year have been kick-ins. That is extraordinary. I hope there's no there's no one restrained chat around him is there because I would not want to hear that if a 30 a kicks are from kick-ins let's not even I don't want to hear I don't want to see you can't be in the 40 yeah I know there was chat over in the year but sure that's extraordinary and 21% of breakies and I'd be interested to see if you're adding handball receives how I want that what that goes to yeah now I'm on I'm on you with that one wall yet it's a good point mate hopefully they're looking at all that sort of stuff when they're picking these types of teams and whatnot correct correct all right we move on mate we've got Sundays games now first game up on sunday is Brisbane V-port out of I Brisbane's the dollar 13 ports six dollars and five the lines 37 and a half Paul continue doing what they're doing they don't get blown out they pay decent games of 40 they go okay they didn't get blown out against fray they were competitive but they're just not they don't win the games of 40 do you think they can go up there and be competitive or do you think Brisbane just see this as high we need to make sure we continue winning we need to make sure we continue building percentage and they just put foot on the throat oh you couldn't really be against the lines in terms of in terms of all of that they obviously have a lot more to play for so you know that you I don't think it's a but yeah sorry trying to get it out here I don't think there's a bet basically at the line yeah but the lines should be winning 100% now what I do like and we saw some some opportunity given to a few different port plays through the midfield on the way Ken Wally and and Joey Richards was one he got and he had a great game Wally as well so expect that to continue we had the 31 disposal against fray and we can get him just just to get the 21 here at his line I think he's a good he's a good bet based on the extra exposure he's getting with no butters and what not in the team Bergman went in there as well but he's not he's probably not as proficient at finding the footy and he could go back now because Hall and Francis comes back in the team so just be aware of that one and apart from that Wally that's not a game that I'm looking to get hugely involved in on the like port out of late they were really restrictive earlier in the year they're not they're not doing that so much anymore they're handing the ball back to the op-out fair bit and so earlier in the season I was probably looking at avoiding guys like Zorco and whatnot but now I'm more happier to to play him and like Zorco is a guy who's coming off a tag which is another thing we like to back players in those sort of situations so happy to look at Yuzorco or your the other boy down there who's getting more of the footy now and it and seems like he's found better form is like your Jasper Fletcher's these types of guys another guy Wally and I've been super impressed with and he's kicking goals for fun is the showman Lohman and we just have a look here what he's say their body's odds in a little bit he's a dollar sixty five to kick two but you look at his last four weeks he's kicked two against his swan he's five against the cats three against the dons and four against the Eagles so he's getting plenty of it and and he's a guy I'd probably like to keep following two Wally. Yep very good all right move on to the last game of the round we've got North Melbourne St. Kilda under the lead North Melbourne's at two sixty one St. Kilda's a dollar fifty the ones twelve and a half I actually like the Saints here I just think that these are the sort of when Saints are paying these teams around their level they seem to get the chalky they're the they're the they're the a bit of the anomaly this year like I feel like teams are paying a different levels against different areas of the comp but the Saints are I feel like if they go up against the team at a similar level you can have a bit of faith in them maybe I'm wrong yeah now I agree with you Wally I think that the Saints are a little level above North I haven't been really that impressive North some form going back obviously all the way back to that fray again where they got hammered the North form has been more like bottom six where the Saints been clearly like above that for me anyway and just looking at like I don't also discount well I don't give I don't treat teams too harshly when they go down and lose actual long either like which is what the Saints did on the weekend because it's just such an unfamiliar venue to you know everybody who goes and plays there and so you know losing to to the cats by sort of whatever four or five goals whatever it was down there I'm not going to penalize the Saints too harshly based on that one thing we know is like the Saints they get back to Marvel here they've been racking up huge disposals in Marvel games especially and even against Jolong when we thought that maybe the the disposals might drop off a bit because they're playing a bit of a tougher opponent but they still had four hundred and ten disposals against against the cats so expected high disposal game in this one and I think that's where we'll put most of our energy in in trying to find some bets here walley so look at but I do like the Saints to win by two goals plus tonight before you go into the disposal something I look at is when teams have similar losses I mean North Melbourne have lost under it by a few goals couple of goals eight it was probably close to a four or five goal win realistically secured has done the same down to Jolong they're both had a similar uh level of a possession uh around that high 30 low 40 amount secured eight 81 tackles North Melbourne eight 48 tackles so I look at this and I go yes I look at the two games in isolation and go okay well you know what I'm saying is some similarities here one of the teams wants the ball when they don't have the ball and fought for it and that's in Kielder and that's a Rossignol I think and I think it's a mine 48 tackles and getting done by four or five girls. It needs to be more than that. And the matter is the same. So at least they have a crack. That was, I just wanted to talk about that. I thought 81 tackles is exactly what you want to see from a team that don't have the footy. - Yeah, yeah. No, they definitely, they're definitely playing a higher, like a higher standard footy right now, the same. And just to sort of illustrate that, like you've only got to go back a couple of weeks. And, you know, Port haven't been too bad. Have they? They were clearly like too good for Port. They beat S and number 67 points. I don't think North have been playing around the similar level to those types of teams. So I'm pretty happy to be with the same. Is now player bets, well, because we think it's going to be a high disposal game. And there's also some guys that you probably like want to avoid. And so for four, yeah, who's it going to be? Like, they're going to be running a tag through the midfield, which is what North do most weeks with Finna Sullivan or whatnot. So, yeah, so looking at who North might target with that tag, I mean, Naz is the obvious one, but his line is so low now at 27.5. I mean, he's already had games like where he's been tagged. So he got tagged against Brisbane, he got 29 tagged against Port, he got 28 tagged against Adelaide, he got 28. Taged against West Coast, he got 34. So there's plenty of examples here where Naz has been tagged and he's still gone well over this line. So I feel like it's come low enough now that you can probably back Naz. And you'll either break the tag or the tag might drop off at some point. He's shown his good enough to beat it anyway. Also, like we've been talking about North's backs. Now the States can concede to backs. So we could look to go back to a Luke Parker this week who gets a better matchup. Also outside of that, we've played this guy the last two weeks, and his line hasn't really gone up and it's Joy Simpkin. You can still get him at 22.5. And he's coming off 32 against the Pies and 25 against the D. So I feel like we'll have more on this game too after teams are out, but it shouldn't line up because a really good one. Under the lead for Disposals two teams who like to rack them up. Yeah, very good, Harrow. All right, mate, before we wrap up, we're going to need your best better than round. What do we got? Well, I'm going to put some faith in the Swanee. So we've been very conceded to this year, especially early on. But expecting a big response for them, and I'm going to back to the Swanees to get the job done against the Giants at -10.5. Very good, Harrow. You've been great as always, mate. That's it from us. If you, as I said earlier, if you haven't subscribed and you're on YouTube, make sure you subscribe. And if you haven't joined Discord, worth giving it a shot now, plenty going on there. And to everyone that follows the Discord, we'll see you again on Friday morning. Harrow, have a good one. Enjoy the wake. And I've been to good wake in a 40. All the best, brothers. [MUSIC PLAYING] What's gambling really costing you? For free and confidential support, call the number on the screen or visit the website.