Seahawks and Texans BIG BETS! NFL Week 14 Best Bets & ATS Picks

it is not cutting time for the 2025 NFL season. Week number 14 is here. Tom Brawley and I will preview each game from a betting and total perspective with news discussion, initial leans and more. That on Best Betts. Good evening. Hey bro, well good morning. Whichever time you're listening to this, good afternoon. It could be any time of day that you're listening to this because once we put it out into the ether, it belongs to the people. Welcome to Best Betts. I'm Joe Dolan. That is Tom Brawley. Tea bro, we are week 14. It is the final week of buys for the 2025 NFL season. And then we hit the home stretch. We have five more weeks of regular season betting. And then of course, there's going to be playoff betting. And we're going to be with you every step of the way. I want to welcome in anybody who has listened all year, but now has been a part of fantasy points. NFL premium are all in thanks to our Black Friday and Cyber Monday special. That has expired. But I can tell you that we will have some news about 2026 coming up in the next few weeks. So I want everybody to pay attention to that. Tea bro, we talk about our wins and our losses on this program. I can finally say I do not have a prop going on Monday night football. Okay. From a props and from my Dolan teaser perspective, I had a perfect week in week number 13. I went five and oh on props and I hit my teaser. So that is a good way to rebound from a couple of rough weeks. And well, you've just been kind of riding the wave all year. Yeah, great stuff from you, Joe. It feels like we're sick. The call, you know, I think it was your turn to hit big over the weekend and started with the wicks props. And I know you got the Pat Bryant last night. So a nice little Thanksgiving for you. I survived. Hey, this was a pretty, you know, I'm not going to lie. We bet a lot of overs. We like to look at things in a positive light. So we've been, I'm probably betting mostly like 80% overs. And this was very much an under weekend, especially once we got away from Thursday and Friday games. So I went nine and six heading into Monday night football. So I will take that on a under type of weekend. Need a little bit of Tyrone Tracy and old DiMario Douglas tonight on Monday night football. So hopefully when you're listening to this on Tuesday, they have both gone over their numbers. So yeah, this is, you know, we're getting down. As you said, it's not cutting time. Man, this leg, it is wide freaking open. We saw that on Thanksgiving and on Black Friday with your Eagles. We do staff picks. We had 40. There's 10 of us that pick. We had four correct on Thursday and Friday. Only four individual picks were correct out of 40. But that was, I mean, the survivor polls, they all got destroyed because a lot of those polls out in Vegas, at least, you have to pick a game on Thursday or Black Friday. So a lot of people saved some favorites for those days and just absolutely got demolished. So it was a chaotic weekend of football. We got the Chicago Bears at the top of the NFC. We could, I guess we could have the New England Patriots at the top of the AFC standings if they pull out the win on Monday night football. So it is just wide. This is as wide open as I can remember, at least in the last 10, 15 years. And then, of course, everybody gassing up the Rams is, and rightfully so, by the way, I'm not trying to say that that was wrong, but everybody gassing up the Rams, they go to Carolina and lose to the most bipolar team in the NFL, the Carolina Panthers, just a wild slate. And, you know, Tom, it was a big underdogs week, as you mentioned. Let's see if then maybe the favorites can rebound. And we're going to start on Thursday night with an absolutely pivotal game for the NFC playoff race. Two teams that are in, I guess, Dallas, though, was left for dead a couple of weeks ago. But now, if you were just grading them right up based on where they are right now, you would say two teams in danger of missing the playoffs. And that would be the Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are favored by three, 53 and a half, the total tee, bro. And they are not going to have Amon Ross St. Brown in this game. Dallas's defense has obviously played a lot better the last few weeks. Detroit coming off of an uninspiring performance against the Green Bay Packers. Detroit is giving three at home. And we are expecting a Thursday night track meet with a total of 53 and a half. And the good news here, tee, bro, is this is not your Thursday night short week. Well, to these teams played on Thanksgiving. Yeah, we see this always the Thursday after Thanksgiving. They always pit two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving. And usually one of them is Dallas. Got to get Dallas in those national TV spots. But hey, they're actually pretty fun to watch right now. Three straight wins since the buy. They've, you know, cover and spreads. We got home with them on Thanksgiving day. I gave out three and a half with the Cowboys. And I'm back on them again this week. I'm riding it. This was one of those we gave out. I gave out in our betting discord on Friday morning after the Thanksgiving games. It was sitting at plus four at some books, including the former ESPN Bet. I think it's now Bet, Bet score or something now. But, but now it's down to plus three, as you said, but it does look like there is a little bit of money towards the Detroit Lions side. So if you want to join me on that Cowboys side, I think we might see some plus three and a half pop back up. So I definitely want to try to grab that hook. If you want to join me on the Cowboys side, if you do like the Lions, you probably want to grab the minus three. Now we'll see how the injury report shakes out. But it does seem like almond raw, same brown. We'll miss at least one game here. And he's been a pivotal part of this offense. We'll see just, you know, how Dallas game plans for me, you know, kind of shutting down Jameson Williams in the passing game. And, you know, Detroit will come into this game trying to scheme some of the, maybe Tesla and some of their other players. So this is going to be an interesting matchup. Great Thursday night game. And as you said, a pivotal one for the NFC playoff picture, I would think the winner has a really good chance of getting into the postseason. And the loser is definitely on the outside looking in now. Sunday, early game, Tom, start the early slate starting at 1pm. New Orleans at Tampa Bay. New Orleans refused to let Miami give them that game. But Miami certainly still showing why I bet they're under. And I am sweating that eight and a half right now. And I know you are as well. But New Orleans is catching eight and a half in Tampa, 42 and a half the total time. And on Monday, Todd Bowles said Mike Evans could return to practice this week. Now, I don't know if I would anticipate him playing Jalen McMillan, also the forgotten man who had the preseason neck injury. He's starting to ramp up a little bit. Don't know if they're going to be back to help out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But I will tell you who was back, Bucky Irving. And he was immediately a bell cow. And now the Buccaneers stopped the bleeding a little bit. They are eight and a half point favorites at home against the Saints. Yeah, this is one that we had just a couple of weeks ago. I was on the Saints side. I thought it was a really good spot for them. And they laid an absolute egg before their buy. So yeah, we're getting this match up again here with the Buccaneers laying eight and a half. I mean, Tampa Bay has been kind of a tough watch here for the last couple of weeks. But Bucky Irving definitely gave us this offense a little bit of a jumpstart. And we'll see about Mike Evans. Maybe we get him back probably in maybe week 15 or 16. Maybe they're just trying to get him back up and into a peak condition here before he's able to take some hits. But this is a big game here. All of a sudden the NFC South Carolina Panthers will not go away. So Buccaneers need to keep winning to stay at the top of that NFC South. But I think my initial lean would be back towards this Saints side. We did see them put up a little bit of a fight whenever they were down multiple scores to the Dolphins last week. They were able to climb back into it. And they showed a little bit of that in the the previous week. So Tyler Shuck has been able to put up a little bit of garbage time production, keep the back door open and in this type of match up here. So my initial lean is towards the Saints here plus eight and a half. We have another game that surprisingly has playoff implications because the AFC North has devolved into absolute hell. Nobody wants to win it. You've got Baltimore fans boo in their team. You've got Pittsburgh fans boo in Renegade. And now all of a sudden Joe Burrow is back in town in Cincinnati. And he's got the Bengals with some life here, believe it or not. They have to go to Buffalo minus six, the Bills at home, 51 and a half the total. But you watch that Buffalo passing game, Tom. And good thing they have James Cook because they can't do anything else on offense. And this total is 51 and a half, which speaks to what people think of the Bengal defense despite what the Ravens did last week. Yeah. And I think I mean, obviously Baltimore's offense is in shambles a little bit. But since and eggs defense has played at least marginally better here in the last couple of weeks. So you know, that makes them a much tougher out if they're going to, you know, get a couple of stops every once in a while. Cincinnati played well with the Joe Burrow back in the lineup. I don't think he was totally sharp, especially down in the red zone area had to settle for a bunch of field goals in that game. But, you know, I obviously use a clear upgrade over the quarterbacks they've been playing with. And hopefully they get a little healthier this week. We'll be watching to see if T Higgins gets out of the concussion protocol and is back available for them. They had a bunch of wasted targets to Mitchell Tinsley. But we did get our player prop on that one. But T Higgins would certainly be a major upgrade at receiver for the Bengals moving forward. This is one we got to watch for weather here. Of course, we're into December in Buffalo. I did take a quick look this morning. It looked like, yeah, what you'd expect for Buffalo, probably a little cold, maybe the chance for precipitation, but definitely one of those forecasts. If you're going to be putting some money on this game, you want to see what that forecast is going to say later in the week. Buffalo kind of watching Joey Bosa left that game a little bit early with a hamstring injury. That may have been because the game was out of control either. Maybe he's maybe he was healthy enough to come back, but they didn't want to push him. So I'm with you though. This Bill's offense continues to, you know, it was leaning heavily on that running game. We'll see if they are able to get something going with this passing game. I'm sure they'll be kicking the tires on Adam Thielen here this week after he was released by the Vikings. They've been kind of testing the waters with all of these veteran receivers that have been released over the last couple of weeks. And Thielen, by the way, asked for his release probably so he can go to a contender. Oh yeah, absolutely. So the Bill's keep stacking these veteran receivers like Tetris and they're finally waiting for one of them to be the one that collapses the thing. I sucked at Tetris and I'm pretty sure I still do, but I used to suck also. The Bill's apparently suck at it too. Yeah, no doubt about that. Brandon Cooks did lead their receivers in receiving, yeah, 13 yards. But anyway, these spreads are from DraftKings Sportsbook and Totals and Tom Brawley will always be giving out the best number when he goes into our subscriber discord. But we also have that quick pick bot in our subscriber discord that allows you to find the best number, which is very helpful. All right, T-Bro, this is a number I want to tease here. We've got Seattle at the Falcons, 43 and a half the total. Seattle laying seven and a half against the team on the road against a team that just lost to the New York Jets. Yeah, that says it all. I am on this one. I am laying at the points with the Seattle Seahawks minus seven and a half heading to the road, heading on the road to Atlanta. We saw what they did to Max Brozmer, completely overwhelmed in his first start against the Seahawks defense. And now they get to go up against the immobile Kirk Cousins this week. So he's really struggled here. I doubt we see Drake London this week that would maybe move this line towards seven if he's possibly could play, but he was kind of, he didn't practice last week and Raheem Morse kind of rolled him out pretty early in the week, basically said he didn't have a chance to play in week 12, week 13. So I think that probably puts him more on the doubtful side for week 14, but we'll see later this week. But yeah, Seattle's been a covering machine six of the last seven games and Atlanta has not, they've been there two, four and one since that Buffalo bills upset on Monday night football. So I'd like the Seahawks to keep it rolling here, laying a big, laying a big number here on the road, but this Falcons team does not have, you know, very much life left right now. So lay it out with the Seahawks minus seven and a half. We're going to take a quick break at a word from our sponsors and then we'll talk about two teams that are going in the same direction and yet still are battling for first place. What's going on guys? It's your good friend Trey here and in these betting streets, you know, some of these, some of these weekends can go a little rough. Usually it's good weekends and I'm hoping for good weekends always for you guys, but I listen, I've been on the wrong end of some brutal beats, some bad weekends and I've been a little jammed up financially. Our friends at Chime, they understand that every dollar counts and that's why when you set up direct deposit through Chime, you get access to fee free features like free overdraft coverage, getting paid up to two days early with direct deposit and more. You got to learn more at chime.com/points. Listen, my younger self, maybe even my more recent self, we've had some financial struggles. You guys have seen the pics that I put out there. It's degenerate stuff. So it's not the worst thing in the world when a finance company will go ahead and get you paid two days early. Trust me, it could come in handy every now and then. So you got to work on your financial goals through Chime today. Open an account in two minutes at chime.com/points. That's chime.com/points. Chime feels like progress. Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services and debit card provided by the Bank or Bank N.A. or Stride Bank N.A., members FDIC, spot me eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply. Timing depends on submission of payment file, fees apply at out-of-network ATMs, bank ranking and number of ATMs according to U.S. News and World Report 2023. Chime checking account required. Tom Brawley, the videos hit social media. One of the worst moments in the history of the city of Pittsburgh, renegade got booed at Ackresher Stadium. You can't tell me Ackresher Stadium isn't a problem in and of itself. It's Hinesfield. It was Hinesfield. It's always going to be Hinesfield. That's a Pittsburgh institution. Hines catch up T-brow, but at Ackresher Stadium, renegade has been booed. The Steeze are Aaron Rodgers has gripes with his receivers. Some of them valid. That's coming. Yeah, but Arthur Smith's running 47 tight ends out there. Mike Tomlin is throwing. The fire Tomlin chance started. That was the other, the crowd was very restless about that. It was a, it was an ugly scene in Pittsburgh and not much better for the team that they're going to be going against here in Baltimore. That was a, not a, not a friendly crowd in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night either. Well, I told you, I fell asleep. I was up at 5 45 on Thanksgiving morning. I did the Turkey trot and which is, you know, it's a 5 K. All right. Yay. I'm not, I'm not trying to sit here and tell you, I accomplished something significant, but I'm not a runner and my joints are just, they, they, they, they're, they're, they're in pain, you know, after that. So up at 5 45, I'm cooking all day, a little drinking, you know, not too bad. I did not make it through the game and I woke up and I saw that score. I woke up on my couch and I saw the score and I was like, Oh my God. And I knew Thomas Tipple was going to be in our discord. Absolutely going off about his beloved Baltimore Ravens. Nobody is more negative about the Ravens than Thomas Tipple. And you've been proven right this year, but T bro, our group chat with the bunch of Yinsers, well, it was not very positive about the Pittsburgh Steelers yesterday. You put the collar on the dog before the game was even over. Oh yeah. It was either the, my roommate or friend here as a Buffalo Bills fan. So the dog gets either the Steelers or the Bills collar. And yeah, I made the switch midway through the third quarter when it snowballed very quickly at the start of the second half there once Aaron Rodgers fumbled that ball. And it's like, Oh, this offense isn't moving going to move the ball enough to score here. So, but yeah, this is going to be, I mean, both of these teams kind of control their own destiny here, both still at the top of the AFC North, whoever wins is kind of in control as crazy as that sounds. But yeah, I, I, this is a game you couldn't really give me any money to weigh on this. Exactly. Like I should, I should give the number out, by the way. It's five and a half. The Ravens are five and a half point favorites at home minus 108, 43 and a half the total. I was like, hmm, man, I could really tease the Ravens to, to Victor. And then I'm like, they just lost to the exhumed body of Joe Burrow. So like, what am I, by three touchdowns? So what am I like? What would I be doing betting on this? Yeah. And the other side, the Steelers, I mean, you want to get five and a half points with that offense and a defense that just gave up the most rushing yards and the history of Accra shore slash Heinz field history. So yeah, this is one of those games. I'll let somebody else, you know, wager on it. If I had to give an early lean here, it would be towards the Ravens underneath the key number of six. The Colts travel to the Jaguars in a pivotal game. The Colts are in the midst of collapsing. But the Jaguars are kind of one of those teams that you look at the standings, you're like, really three or four, you know, with all the discourse about Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence played a really, really clean game against the Tennessee Titans, but they are still underdogs. The Jags are underdogs at home, one and a half points, 48 and a half the total. The Colts will not have sauce gardener for this game, Tom, but that injury was not as bad as it looked. It is a calf strain, but no Achilles damage for sauce. He will not go on IR poor Shane Steichen. So they are expecting sauce gardener back at some point, but it probably will not be this week against the Jaguars. Yeah, this one made me do a double take a little bit. I thought maybe the Jaguars would be short home favorites here, but the Colts are still getting a lot of respect in the market for their performance early in the season. But yeah, they've run into two good teams here at the Texans and the Chiefs the last two weeks and dropped both of those games. And now we'll see if this defense can withstand the loss of sauce gardener. Of course, they played most of the season without sauce gardener. So they should be used to it, but we'll see if Daniel Jones improves at all. He's playing through this hairline fracture in his fibula right now and his rushing. He's kind of dialed that way back here since it came out. So we'll see if he feels any better and starts to run a little bit more, but they really need to get Jonathan Taylor going again. He's been kind of bottled up the last couple of weeks and their offense kind of goes as Jonathan Taylor goes and he hasn't been going very, you know, anywhere very much here over the last couple of weeks. So this is a fascinating one. We got Parker Washington on the Jacksonville side who who could miss. He left that game early in week 13 and he's been kind of a little bit of a pivotal piece for Trevor Lawrence in the middle of the field. So definitely watching that injury. But man, this is one, Joe, I've been I've been going against Jaguars pretty much all season here and it has kind of backfired me backfired on me and ATS and in our staff picks. And so I have, you know, as soon as I get on the Jaguars, it might be this week, I'm sure it will backfire on me and the Colts will win by like two touchdowns. Oh, here we go, T-Bro. Look, there's eight games in the one o'clock PM window on Sunday. So I have the ability to watch six at once in my setup. Okay. I am telling you, this will not be one of the six. The Cleveland and he window are hosting the Tennessee Titans. Cleveland minus four and a half with a total of 33 and a half in this game. I mean, that is an army Navy over under. That is unbelievable. I have no interest in betting on this game. If I had to, it would probably be on Cleveland just because Miles Garrett is going to eat Camward alive. But, but a four and a half is too much. 33 and a half the total. This is, this is bad one, man. Yeah. This is, it might be one of those like weirdly entertaining games though. You're like, just kind of want to keep check on and see what's going on. You know, but yeah, this is a battle for the bottom of the standings right now. Cleveland is does have a couple of injuries. They lost Malik Collins who's been a big piece of that defensive line so far this year and Jack Conklin left early for a concussion. So a couple of injuries on the, the Cleveland side. I also think we're going to be watching the weather for this game clearly anytime Cleveland in December. I wonder if some weather might be a factor in this total as well. But yeah, this is one. Honestly, I'd probably look towards the Titan side a little bit just catching the points is thinking these are two very bad teams and you know, we could see Tennessee, you know, keep it close in this one. But I also thought Tennessee was building a little bit of momentum heading into week 13. And they did score on their opening drive, but that's about all they did the rest of the game. So the Titans I thought they were showing some signs of improvement under Cam Ward, but it all disappeared in week 13. Let's move on now to Miami and the Jets, which might be another game that gets relegated here. Miami's been kind of frisky and at least they have Devon H and minus two and a half, 41 and a half the total. And all of a sudden the Jets a little bit of life, you know, Tyrod Taylor, the lady Mitchell, they've given them something to like at least hang your hat on with that from a fantasy football perspective. But now they can at least score some points. Jets getting two and a half at home. You know, I am absolutely sweating that Miami under eight and a half wins Tom at this point. But the Jets are, they're a tougher out than you would think at this point of the season. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm on that dolphins one, two and man, the Steelers match up in a week or two looks a little easier now. Like all of a sudden like Miami, they really live to get to like nine and eight. It certainly feels that way. And we'll see this is this could be a pivotal one here playing up in New York against your rival up, you know, under two, you know, two and a half here under a field goal for this game. My lean would be toward the dolphins here. But they kind of, they kind of screwed me a little bit. Anybody that had, I didn't have, I didn't have a bet on them, but for staff picks and stuff, I did have the dolphins minus five and a half. And it looked like it was going to be an easy cover there. But they did give up multiple touchdowns against the Saints late in that game. That bizarre onside kick where they said it hit somebody, although it didn't really look like it hit anybody that was based on the rolling on the field that it did hit somebody. So it was a game that the dolphins probably should have covered pretty easily, but they let the Saints back into it. So that's where my lean is towards the, the dolphins in this one. But yeah, I don't blame you, Joe. I think your decision has already been made. You're putting that Browns Titans game off the TVs, and I would keep this Jets dolphins game off the TV too. Uh, well, be careful what you wish for because nine is coming back this weekend. And, uh, well, it depends on what your definition of watchable is because I, I personally view that Max Rosemary interception is highly watchable. That was just good football. But nine will be returning for the Vikings. He does not have concussion symptoms per Kevin O'Connell. And this is where nine and the Vikings are at their home underdogs to a three and 10 Washington team. Yeah, but that one and a half, 41 and a half the total. Yeah, I will say that three and 10 commanders team or three and nine or whatever they are, they three something. Yeah, they have three wins. Uh, they did, you know, they, that was a fun game on Sunday night football. That was a, one of the better games I saw this year, uh, back and forth, a lot of big plays on both sides on both offense and defense. So, uh, the commanders are still showing some signs of fight and you know, this is where my lean would be towards the commanders here. And we have maybe Jaden Daniels getting back for this game. It does seem like he's kind of pushing to play and we'll see if the commanders and their brass ultimately let him play. So we might be getting a little bit of a discount here minus one and a half if, if Jaden Daniels does end up coming back to play. So if I was making a play early in the week here, I'd probably take the commanders laying the price here minus one and a half because I could see this getting up to three. If it does look like, uh, Jaden Daniels does play. So, uh, definitely one of those we'll be watching later in the week and, uh, honestly, no, no real change in the point spread. Well, since I started looking early this morning, uh, the line was one and a half, uh, towards the commanders. And, uh, since then the, the news that McCarthy was likely to be back this week, uh, no real change in the, the spread for this game. So, uh, the markets do not really respect whoever is at quarterback for the Vikings this weekend. All right, T-Brow, we're going to take our final break and then we're going to talk about the late afternoon and prime time games. Okay, T-Brow, we have just three late afternoon games here. Uh, there is one unwatchable one, but at least it contains the Denver Broncos who are battling for the AFCs one seed. Denver's laying eight and a half in Vegas, 40 and a half the total. Uh, look, I understand they fire Chip Kelly for a reason, but that firing a coach is not going to fix that Raider offense. Brock Bowers is an absolute freak. They can't run the ball. They can't block anybody. And Gino Smith is a final destination interception machine. Uh, it, it, the interceptions will find him eventually, even if he avoids one. Uh, eight and a half is the number here, Tom. I have zero interest in this Raiders team right now, but also Denver is not beating teams by margin as you saw against Washington on Sunday night. Yeah, this is, they, they like playing in tight games every week. So, uh, laying a large price like this, seven and a half. It's kind of a little bit of a tough ask, uh, with the Broncos right now. Uh, they did get a little healthier. Patrick Sartan did come back in week 13, but, uh, we don't have to go back too far. This awesome Thursday night game between the Raiders and Broncos, uh, they battled to a 10 seven decision on the Thursday night football in early November. I think that was a game, uh, where, you know, Denver was kind of a similar kind of spread, I think, uh, right between seven and 10 points. So, uh, once again, uh, if I was going to be going to a side, it would probably, uh, you know, plug my nose and, and take the points with the Raiders because Broncos really haven't shown any ability to win by margin at all. And, uh, they went really, I gave out a RJ Harvey prop last night and was feeling pretty good about it early in the game. And, uh, they just totally abandoned the run. They do not have any faith in this running game right now in Denver. So, uh, even if they're trying to close out a game, uh, could, they could leave the back door open a little bit for, for Geno Smith, but we'll see if he is able to actually, uh, step through it and cover a spread. Chicago at Green Bay and, and Tom, I think Green Bay going into Detroit and winning on Thanksgiving is kind of a, a big time. Like, hey, we had our little bit of a swoon. Um, we're here, you know, we're, we have arrived and we, we are dangerous and our defense is dangerous. And we have this great receiving group that might be getting Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden back. And now there's six and a half point favorites at home, 44 and a half the total. Now you can correct me if I'm wrong. Chicago feels like a very public side here other than the one seed. They haven't been, they haven't been, uh, you know, respected and all that coming off the game with the huge rushing performance, but the, it's six and a half a reason. I think, uh, I am going to tease Green Bay with Seattle. I'm going to tease Green Bay down to half a point, essentially a pick them. And then I'm going to tease Seattle down to a point and a half, uh, in Atlanta. That's going to be my teaser. I'm picking Green Bay to win this football game. And, uh, if I had to bet it right now, I think I would bet Green Bay minus six and a half, but looking for your read on this. Yeah. That's where my head is here early in the week. I'm probably leaning towards the back packer side minus six and a half. But, uh, to be completely honest, I've been very wrong on the bears all season long. Uh, I don't know how they keep getting away with it. Yep. Uh, I mean, I don't think Caleb Williams is, I mean, he's certainly improved since his rookie season, but, uh, I don't think he's, uh, you know, you know, one of these, uh, yeah, he's taken a step or anything. I, I do think they're vulnerable, but they, they keep finding ways to win games. Uh, the running game has been elite here, uh, since they're by early in the season. So, uh, they, they, they really stuck it to the Eagles on the ground last week. So, we'll see if they are able to do that again. This could be, uh, one of these ground and pound type of games were, were up in, uh, Green Bay in December here. So this is another one where we got to, we got to monitor what's happening with the weather. But, uh, this is monster game here, you know, two teams with, uh, three losses in the NFC North. This will go a long way to deciding who's, uh, you know, gets the, uh, the home game in the post season and, uh, potentially, uh, maybe home field advantage. It's still very much up in the air here. So, uh, yeah, this is a critical game. And I believe they both, they have two games against each other, uh, remaining over the last month of the season. So, uh, we'll get another showdown with them later in the year. Uh, the Rams go to the Cardinals, Tom. So, uh, we've got the, the, the closest point spread of these three late afternoon games is six and a half. The Rams coming off of a, I don't know, it's so much a bad loss. It's just a really good performance for the, for the Panthers. Rams minus eight and a half, uh, 48 and a half the total in Arizona. Arizona has been buttering our bread from a fantasy football perspective. Um, even Marvin Harrison got in on the action, but he leaves the game. The problem for Arizona is they haven't been able to win football games. Eight and a half is the number 48 and a half is the total. And you would think Jonathan Gannon's hot seat is, is just absolutely blazing right now. Yeah. This is, uh, could be the beginning of, oh, it's already kind of been the beginning of the end here. And now they get a Rams team that's coming off a pretty embarrassing loss against Carolina. So, uh, you would think that Arizona's going to get their best shot from the Rams this week. Uh, so I would lean towards the Rams side here. Uh, I've been, they, you know, I was, I joined, I was on the Rams this past week. So, uh, laying 10 and a half against the Panthers didn't even come close to sniffing that cover. But, uh, before that they've been very hot, you know, winning like six or seven games in a row. So, you know, I think they'll probably bounce back here. Uh, but you know, Arizona's, they've been, you know, relatively competitive in, in some of these games and, uh, just missed getting a cover again last week. Oh, they did get a cover. I got it a bad number. That's, uh, when we did our staff picks, uh, it was two and a half because of the Baker Mayfield uncertainty. It did settle at four points by the time kickoff came around. But, uh, so they were able to get a cover last week. They have been, uh, most weeks, you know, relatively competitive, but, uh, against these NFC West teams, they've kind of struggled. Uh, they got whooped by the 49ers and NC Hawks at the beginning of the month. So, uh, we'll see if the Rams are the next NFC West team to, to lay a big number on the, uh, the Cardinals this week. We've got a really pivotal, uh, Sunday night football game here, Tom, CJ Stroud returned. There's some really good games this week. Yeah. So this is a really good one. Uh, we have a massive one between the Texans and the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Texans who are hot now catching, uh, three and a half in Arrowhead. Uh, we've got a total of 42 and a half. And let me pull up the athletics playoff simulator, Tom, but I am going to imagine this is going to be an absolutely massive game. Yeah. Look at this. Look at this. If the Chiefs win per the athletics playoff simulator against the Texans, they have a 51% chance to make the playoffs. If they lose, they are down to 11%. The Kansas City Chiefs, if they lose this game, down to 11% to make the playoffs as for the Houston Texans, if they win 84%, they're virtually, they're gonna, well, virtually going to lock themselves into a playoff spot. If they lose 45%, what a massive game from a playoff seating standpoint. And really, Andy's last stand here, Tom. So they're getting three in the hook at home. But I think you, you're leaning to the, to the Texans here. I am. This is one of the, the bets I did give out in the discord. I'll kind of kick it myself. I've liked the Texans the last couple of weeks and I didn't give them out against the Colts. So hopefully they're still riding their hot hand here. I got them plus three and a half. I would not bet this at three if you can. It does feel like this game is going to bounce between three and three and a half for most of the week. But yeah, I like what I've seen from this Texans defense, the best defense in the league, in my opinion, and the offense is, you know, it's not, you know, humming, but they're starting to get contributions from Jaden Higgins and Nico Collins has been able to stay healthy. The Wartie Marks and, and the running game hasn't been atrocious. So they're starting to do just enough on offense to, to, you know, win some of these games with their elite defense. So I think this, the teams have played in three straight games decided by a field goal or less. So I could see another game where we're going down to the wire and I like getting the Texans, getting that hook if you can, plus three and a half, really looking forward to this game. As you said, this, the winner probably has a pretty good chance of making the playoffs and the loser might be on the outside looking in, in January, which would be a shame. These are two, two of the 12 to 14 best teams in the league. Yeah. I mean, Kansas City is just though that one score game lock and some of it inflicted on them themselves, but some of that one score game look, look has gone against them. Tom, we have an interesting game and I'm not sure how much we can talk about with, with regards to the Eagles and the chargers because the Eagles are three point favorites right now. 40 and a half is the total. And the chargers might not have Justin Herbert in this game. He is having a procedure on Monday or yesterday, if you're listening to this to repair a fracture or broken bone in his left hand, he could not hand the ball off with his left hand. Could not take snaps from under center. And I know he's coming out and saying, oh, I'm acting like I'm playing. They've got the chiefs next week. So this, this right now, I don't, I don't think this is a Tray Lantz line. I think this would be closer to the Eagles six. Yeah, I would think six and a half if Lance is the quarter. It's definitely shaded a little bit just in case it is Lance. I think this would have been like one and a half, maybe two and a half towards the Eagles if, if we did know that Justin Herbert was playing. So it's shaded ever so slightly towards the, just in case Tray Lance is the starter. Yeah. So, right. So the chiefs game, so let's go, let's go to my trusty athletic playoff simulator again, just to look at what this would be for the chargers here. So let's look at, let me, let me go dig in the numbers for the chargers as we talk about this game. 40 and a half the total time. I mean, people are collapsing on the Eagles offense. I don't blame them. Ultimately, it's with the Eagles that it all comes down to they can't run the ball. How are we assigning the blame and all this stuff? Well, it's not pretty. No doubt about that. Now, here's the deal, Tom. If the chargers win this game, they're 75% to make the playoffs. But if they lose, they're still 50% to make the playoffs. Okay. So the much more pivotal game for them is the chiefs game next week. So if Justin Herbert is not 100%, you know, especially if you can't handle the football, they could sit him in this game and still have a coin flips chance at making the playoffs with a pivotal game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Moreover, Omerian Hampton is going to come back this week. That's the prevailing sense. Are you going to put Omerian Hampton out there with a quarterback who can't handle football off? Yeah. And that probably also means not a lot of under center. I mean, we saw this past week with the Steelers. Everything was pistol or shotgun because Aaron Rodgers couldn't get under center with his busted up left hand. So definitely something to keep in mind whenever you start looking at this game for props later in the week, too. If we get any kind of indication, if maybe Herbert is going to play, it could affect just the way they operate the offense. But yeah, of course, this is a Monday night game. So we're going to have to wait till Thursday or Friday to really get a sense of if Herbert was going to play. It's going to be clear. I honestly think Herbert likes to play through some injuries and he did play this past week. So I probably put it like 55%. He plays 45. He doesn't. But ultimately, it's going to come down to what the doctor, if he's at serious risk of aggravating the injury and forcing him to get future surgery. So I do think maybe we'll get a little bit more information later in the week. But it's going to be close. I don't mind if you do think that Lance has a decent chance of playing. If you want to put a little bit of money down now on the Eagles, it is a pretty significant downgrade. We did go through the numbers earlier this year before the season started. But I would have to think Herbert to Lance would be one of the bigger downgrades across the league. Yeah. And obviously the question is, are the Eagles going to have their backs against the wall and rally like they did last year? Or are they going to have their backs against the wall and cower like they did two years ago? And that is a question that is going to dictate the point spreads here for the rest of the season. T-Bro, it was good talking to you. It was good talking to everybody who's a new fantasy points premium or all-in subscriber. Thank you for subscribing this week. Get in that discord because that is where Tom, myself, and then good friend Trey, we post all of our picks. Even good friend Trey had a winner on Thanksgiving. He had a couple. Yeah, he had a common on guy on Black Friday. And Chase Brown. So look out for good friend Trey. He's hitting the winning streak as well. I had an undefeated week. You had a good week. I hope everybody had a good week. This has been Best Bets here at fantasypoints.com. Remember to subscribe, rate, and review on your favorite platform. It really helps us out. Thanks, everybody, and we will talk to you on Thursday.