Scott Galloway’s Predictions for 2026

[Speaker 2] Support for the show comes from fund rise. For the past seven years there's been a room in finance most people couldn't enter. A room where you could have invested in some of the biggest names in tech companies like Airbnb and Uber before their multi-billion dollar IPOs. I'm talking about venture capital. Fund rise recently took a select hammer to those closed doors by launching a venture capital product that's available to anyone. Their mission is to give everyone the chance to invest in the best tech and AI companies before they go public. You can visit fund rise.com/profty to check out fund rises venture portfolio and get in early today. All investments involved risk including a potential loss principle. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is a paid advertisement. Today is number 187 million. That's not many minutes our fans spent listening to profty markets in 2025 on Spotify alone. That's equivalent to 356 years in celebration it's not I'm gonna watch jaws with my son. We're gonna do it a bit different though we're gonna watch it backwards and it's actually when you watch it backwards a heartwarming story of a shark who helps people work through their disabilities. All the podcast jokes are kind of lame it's like it's like going to therapy in your therapist or people have matured since 2011. I like that one better yeah I like [Speaker 9] that. Congratulations Ed you're not only 30 under 30 but we're wasting people's [Speaker 2] time. We're pretty good pretty good numbers. Should we do a crime podcast where we describe where we describe hideous murders as like skincare routine. We'd be [Speaker 4] more successful. True crime podcast absolutely crush which I do not understand I've never found a true crime podcast interesting in the list. [Speaker 2] Let's bring it clear how does any woman ever be around any man or live in an apartment building or stand her car when she parks after listening to crime podcasts. It's basically all the same thing. There's a stranger in town who's introduced early in the podcast who commits a terrible murder against a woman. They're all the same. Claire. You want my take on true crime. I don't listen to [Speaker 5] them either. Yeah, let's know. No, no. I don't listen to a lot of podcasts Scott. I don't have a lot of time to listen to anything other than this was [Speaker 4] together. You want to take on how women and how women feel. Yeah. What actually [Speaker 2] Claire what what I'm the same way the first podcast I ever listened to was the one I was on with Cara Swisher. I still don't listen to this one but what podcast do you listen to Claire? I actually I listened to one podcast recently [Speaker 5] called Articles of Interest. It's all about how our fashion industry is inherently linked to the the American military and it's been an exploration of kind of how each war has shaped what we wear as Americans. I think that one's pretty fascinating. I think you would like it actually. That's not cool. Articles of interest. Yeah. Ed, what do you listen to? I listen to me. I listen to who [Speaker 7] else. I listen to Lex Friedman sometimes actually I've been listening to that. [Speaker 4] Yeah. It's been good. Lex. Yeah. Well, that was fascinating. Let's move on [Speaker 2] from these personal interest stories. You know, you're the one who started [Speaker 4] this. Yeah, I was just hoping I had more interesting friends. I listen to the [Speaker 8] daily. I used to listen to radical history and then I realized no one was [Speaker 2] watching me listen so I don't need to listen to him because I'm not impressing anybody. So I mostly I listen to our stuff. I listen to occasionally I listen to an interview that Kara does on on with Kara Swisher. I really like the daily. I think they do a great job and it makes me feel very old and very white. I'm kind of settling in to get off my lawn when I'm listening to the daily. I like that that guy asks a couple questions that is producer cheese up and then every few seconds goes huh huh. So what you're saying is it was difficult. I'm like a lot of skill there. What do you mean by [Speaker 4] that? By the way, I made fun of him and supposedly he's really upset and all [Speaker 2] about her. We're talking about Babara. Michael Babara. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Michael welcome to come on anytime. You sexy beast. He's got all that November hair on his head now on his face now. He's very handsome. Very good voice too. I actually have no idea what he looks like. What are your reflections on on [Speaker 4] 2025 for the show? We are entering a new year but those minutes sounded like a lot of a lot of listening time. Reflections on the show and how we've done? Well, so kind of zooming out. I thought that podcasting, [Speaker 2] so my company in 2017 started another company and I realized someone off this hamster wheeled of more money. I like more money but I wanted I want other things to drive me. I thought what would make me really happy and I want creativity to hit intellectual property to hit influence and try and do meaningful work and we started property media and we want to make enough money to pair people well and make good livings but it was never it was different. It was a different approach. It was never about okay I've always been, how do I raise a lot of money, build something and then sell it to a company. That's been my strategy for the last 30 years. This was different. This was more about you know, quote unquote emotional and intellectual reward and about two years ago we started doing really well and we started launching new voices and new programs and now my agreements are going again and so property markets within the portfolio of the five podcasts is growing faster I think than any other of our properties and the most exciting thing about it is earlier in the year you and Claire basically went to five days a week and I'm basically like one one and a half and so and by the way that doesn't that's not in any way slowed the growth so and I also believe the opportunity so I think CMBC sucks. I don't know if you've ever picked up on that for me but I think there's a huge opportunity to be the premier business media property especially going after young people. I think the average age of a CMBC viewer is like dead and we get the average age of our listeners is 34 so and that's where all the money is so I like the idea of surrounding a set of consumers with shows on economics, China, the markets, media are political podcasts but there's just no getting around it. You and Claire have in the property markets seem to have killed it. You guys are what I mean you've won a bunch of in addition you're 30 Jesus what what is the podcast one we won best business podcast what did we win we won the signal award best business podcast [Speaker 4] we also won the webby award there you go so it's been it's been great it's been I think this was [Speaker 2] Claire's first job I know it was your first job Claire was it your first job yeah it was after internships okay so think about this the two people running this show the person running it behind the mic and the person in front of the mic this was their first job so I think that but that's really exciting that's really nice and and you guys work well together and I like the yeah I'm just this is probably prophecy markets I think is growing is probably the most successful product I've ever been involved in right out of the gates I don't have anything I can wow I don't think I've ever launched typically when I launch a product or a website or a business it's kind of like well I have a great idea and I raise some money I'm like well this isn't working and I pivot and I pivot and it does okay and then pivot again and we catch on to something and that's why I tell entrepreneurs that the key is just starting because whatever you think makes sense until you face the enemy being the marketplace you don't know and the vision for this granted we have probably we had prophecy markets for a while at twice a week but then when we went to five times a week and also I love that you guys have done a great job incorporating other book I'm talking my own book here but I'm really happy how do you guys feel about it Claire you go first you're the you're the brains behind this Joey Bagadona taco stand it's been a really rewarding year I mean it kind of went off without a hitch and we've [Speaker 5] got such a good team behind us so I don't know it's been it's been a lot of fun it's been a year of hard work but it hasn't been a hard year it's been a really fun year so I've loved it and I think we're going into year four wow it's been that long I didn't know that it's been that long we started we started with one episode in 2022 in July of 22 add reflections I'm just surprised that there's [Speaker 4] so much to talk about I remember when we when you said I want to do a daily show I was like well there's not enough stuff that happens in the world to talk about oh my god was I wrong you can talk about anything there is so much crazy shit happening especially in business and markets so it's been really fun learning how to do that I need to come up with something with a plan for 2026 our 2025 thing was okay now we're going to do it daily every year we have a thing that we're working towards yeah and they just think about what that's going to be for 2026 you know I think it's going to be [Speaker 2] events events that's good that's a good one we can make it events such as I can have people come up to me and ask me about if you're single which I'm really looking forward to 2026 is going to be about I think about events and alternative platforms for distribution but I think Claire's point is a really important one that she's gotten a lot of psychic compensation because this year the monetary compensation will be dramatically lower for both of you so I just want to prepare you and I want to acknowledge Claire's recognition of the psychic compensation I need nothing else Scott yeah I've [Speaker 4] had a terrible time yeah that's been wonderful thanks thanks for your good work just consider that for for my review okay let's get into our episode here this is our first episode of the year it is pre taped so we'll be back next week for our proper episode and we'll get into everything it's been happening but for this episode to kick it off we are going to walk through your predictions for 2026 we're going to cover your thoughts on what is in store for AI for media for emerging tech try to address some audience questions and comments we got on the live stream that sound good yeah sounds great okay we're going to zoom through this so your first prediction here Scott AI stocks correct please unpack that yeah so I think the groundwork for this is I think China [Speaker 2] is so sick of dealing with the sclerotic raccoon on math policies of the Trump administration where he has changed the terror policy with China 17 times since entering office and if I were him and they've seen this for a while they've been diversifying away from the US they've gone from 17% of their exports went to the US it's down to 10 and they have reduced just in the last the last eight months their exports to the US by 70 billion and if I were advising she and I've said this before I'd go for the jugular and I'd start dumping AI into the US market with open weight less expensive AI models and I believe they're already starting to do that and as you see is technical specifications or performance of these things start to reach parity and they seem to be able to train their models for less money and have build models that require less energy I think they're just going to dump a massive amount of AI into the market and crash our market or force a correction in the valuation of these companies so I think that's I think that's coming and these coming it's really interesting now they appear to be doing this making these advances with substantially less catbacks some people would say that the catbacks is hidden because similar to how blowing benefited from massive government military spending a lot of people say the local governments are propping up these AI or open weight AI models but one thing is clear they're reaching sort of technical parity so if you can get 90% of open AI and the topic for 30% of the price that's a really good value proposition and the CEO of Airbnb Brian Chesky kind of rattled markets when he said that they were relying on Alibaba's I don't know if it's QN or QN model he said it's very good and it's also fast and cheap so I think anyways I think these stocks are going to come under these valuations are going to come under huge pressure as more and more companies announce that they're using you know much less expensive Chinese models I'm just going to zoom us to the the second prediction which is that the [Speaker 4] data sent to bubble busts yeah I find it a lot of the data center modeling is essentially such that [Speaker 2] Sam Altman can pretend his business is going to be much bigger than it is the number of data centers announced is up 240% but if you look at the actual number that have begun construction it's a fraction of that I feel like a lot of this is signaling as opposed to actual construction and also there's huge points of constraint and specifically like one of the biggest data centers in a video's hometown is still empty because it's awaiting power it it they're estimating for a lot of these things it would take five day years to connect them to the grid and if you believe the statements around the revenue projections and the power required to fund the data centers implicit in these revenues projections we would need 250 nuclear plants new nuclear power plants in a cost at a cost of ten trillion dollars so yeah I just think it's you know Alman said our vision is simple we want to create a factory they can produce a gig a lot of new AI infrastructure every week I just don't see how that's feasible also don't think it's true I think he's just trying to say I know my business so well and as a head fake look at we're going to need all this power and I just don't I just don't think it's it's going to happen and all the data I think the data storage projections are way off and that that that bubble is going to is going to pop and whether or not the infrastructure power infrastructure keeps up or increases or not the CapEx will absolutely increase it but meanwhile China kind of is continuing to power ahead they they brought on 256 gigawatts of new solar capacity in 2025 the first half and that's more than the rest of the world so it doesn't even appear that we have the infrastructure or we have the capital but it doesn't appear like we're actually going on with it so it strikes me that one it'll either be huge constraints logistically or that we're going to find that in fact AI just slowed down and there are cheaper or less energy-consumptive ways of powering these LLMs or that they'll be powered out of China with open weight models so I think we're going to see a bit of a bubble burst in not only AI stocks but in this data storage hysteria in addition unfortunately what we're going to see is another wealth transfer from middle-class households in the form of higher electricity prices because it will put a strain on the existing grid which will transfer to an increase in electricity prices from middle-class consumers but also incumbent in the first prediction about those stocks we're correcting I think there's going to be a bailout in 2026 and the bailout is going to be of AI specifically though position is some sort of strategic government investment in the form of loan guarantees to continue the music playing but it's effectively going to be a bailout and that is all of these companies are built on such ridiculous expectations around revenue growth and the way they will want to get to that revenue growth and provide the infrastructure and buy more chips will be to take on massive downloads back by the government which in my mind is essentially a bailout yeah I mean well AI [Speaker 4] bailed out Trump's administration so it only makes sense that the next year Trump's administration bails out AI it would bring everything full circle your third prediction the Nvidia and Open AI Duopoly comes under siege please unpack that prediction well it's just a great thing about [Speaker 2] competition Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world because they're able to a command incredible operating margins it reminds me when I got out of business school in 92 the premier job was Intel and Apple and Motorola got sick of Intel's essential duopoly in conjunction with a partnership with Microsoft and it started producing their own chips and you know Open AI is saying they're going to increase their revenues by 180 billion dollars by 2030 and Nvidia 800 billion by 2030 and then if you look at I mean it's just it's just staggering and we're also saying that while these companies still dominate we are seeing some shared dispersion specifically Gemini's now 15% deep sea which was at zero is now at 4% and also you know as we've said we think Gemini is probably the most underrated LLM because of the fire hose of you know a couple billion users each day that they can fire via Google search and I find that the AI summaries at the top of Google queries are getting better and better I think anthropic for our comments around I think it's going to be a successful IPO I think it'll grow it's share so and even Amazon and Google are trying to get into the game producing their own chips to compete with Nvidia this is a good thing but right now Nvidia's share of GPU market is 94% that will come way down and their market cap right now is greater than the entire stock market of Canada UK France Germany and Italy and then if you just look at the market cap with this company relative Nvidia's market cap is greater than the market cap of Costco Bank of America IBM Palantir Exxon Mobile Walmart Netflix Oracle Home Depot and Salesforce combined I don't think that's sustainable and go back to the Intel example Intel had a similar type of duopoly with Microsoft versus Nvidia and open AI and in 1999 it was a 200 billion dollar market cap by 2000 it was half a trillion now it's 165 billion and granted Intel may be the worst managed big tech company the last 25 years given their leadership but I do think it's somewhat of a metaphor for what might happen to Nvidia and also Nvidia is a premium price product it costs about 10 bucks an hour to use their Nvidia H 100 versus about half the price for an AWS Trainiam or a Google TPU so I don't think this is kind of a this is a bit of a layout because these two companies are too profitable to maintain to not attract huge sharks there's so much blood in the water here so it's just logical their share would come down so that's not that bolder prediction I guess the question is how much their share will come down and who will come for them who are they gonna be [Speaker 4] the main attackers well it's like Gary Oldman said in the movie wasn't the assassin with Natalie [Speaker 2] Natalie Portman's first first movie he says bring everyone and he's like what do you mean he's like everyone so everyone I think everyone's coming for these guys I think Amazon every big tech player I mean Madda everyone's gonna be trying to develop their own chips and their own LLMs and again per the previous prediction China's just gonna just start massive AI dumping I don't know if they have the IP around the chip but you know this Jeff Bezos looks at all these rockets going into space and the value space acts and start saying okay Kuiper and I would bet that they're thinking a lot long and hard about how to develop a pre-robust chip offering we'll be right back [Speaker 4] after the break and if you're enjoying the show send to a friend and please follow us if you haven't ready [Speaker 2] support for the show comes from fund rise investing in companies already in the S&B 500 can sometimes feel like you're being served someone else's leftovers it still a grave meal but it's hard not to imagine what the food tasted like when it was fresh out of the oven historically only venture capital investors were served access to the best tech companies in the world that hadn't gone public yet and that meant the rest of the world simply had to sit on their hands and wait for an IPO fund rise says they're completely upending that dynamic with its new venture capital product with 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episode wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrichbf we're back with profty markets okay big tech stock pic is amazon why is that [Speaker 2] so it's all about obviously their earnings growth strategic positioning and also all of this relative to their current valuation and amazon sorry big tech stock pic of last year was alpha that it's up 68 percent the worst performing stock of the last of the year to date is amazon only up 7 percent and if you look at their revenue per employee it's actually down 28 percent in the last 10 years versus up 49 56 and 62 at meta alphabet and Microsoft respectively and i think a lot of that it's not because of underperformance of amazon but because of huge investments in more people to staff their factories and also huge investments in robotics and AI and i think that where AI begins to pay real dividends in terms of market cap increases is that i think it will lose market cap across the infrastructure and l_l_m_ layer but i think it's going to increase market cap and quote unquote the application layer specifically around autonomous and robotics and i think amazon's acquisition and kiva was genius and the fact that amazon has a million robots or a million operational industrial robots versus the rest of the nation of 400,000 and the prediction that they can double their retail revenue by 20 33 or 32 without any increase in employees to assess me that one of the biggest businesses in the world and that is amazon's retail business is going to register margin expansion typically what's happened over the last 10 years is all the margin expansion has come from amazon media group or from AWS but if you're able to expand the margins substantially across one of the world's largest revenue streams and that is amazon's platform retail that's going to be dramatic and amazon is the forward of the 21st century forward in about 10 or 15 years took the production time of a car down 90% and in the last decade amazon's been able to do the same thing from click to order and i think it's going to take it down 99% and you're going to have huge amazon warehouses and delivery basically almost the entire supply chain operated by these industrial robots and that obviously has societal implications but it's going to be great for amazon shareholders and any layer and kuiper which is it's a baseless attempt to develop launch capability i think that'll become it's kind of been a pimple on the elephant's space acts i think that's going to become not a big competitor but a player if you will and i just don't see AWS is being kind of hammered is being seen as the least a i compatible at least a i enabled cloud but it is still the number one cloud company and it's also trading at what are typically historically low multiples for amazon it typically trades at 58 p of 58 which is rich it's now trading at 33 it's enterprise value to EBITO over the last five years is average 23 it's now at 17 in some just as alphabet looked cheap to me last year or reasonable i should say not cheap amazon doesn't look cheap but it looks reasonable and i think people are going to realize that ai the best interface of ai is an autonomous or in robotics in amazon is a leader in collapsing ai in robotics listen to comment kind of surprise [Speaker 4] the pick is an alphabet again given how you've praised google's progress in ai why not google against could be i think so i own some alphabet and i'm not selling and the thing i'm most excited about [Speaker 2] quite frankly with alphabet is way mo because again i think the the place that ai starts to register stakeholder growth is an autonomous i i like alphabet i'm not selling it's it's up 69% this year so it's had or 68% so it's had a pretty a pretty big run but i still think it's it's one of the more reasonably price stocks the prediction space becomes the next thing well tech of the year so i you know ai then i'd pretty good voice and ai then g op 1 and last year predicted nuclear this year i'm predicting space and that is what technology or platform or sector traps attracts the most cheap capital and sees the most the greatest increase in valuations and i think it's going to be space and if i were running ir for space x the way i would position it is okay google gets 90% of search met uh 60% of all social amazon 5% of all the calmer's but we at space x have 90% of literally everything else and that is if you look at this tiny little pale blue dot in one of 10,000 universes or galaxies we own 90% of everything outside of that blue dot we are putting i think 90% of launch launch capacity right now two-thirds of satellites they can get they can get items or products into space for less than anyone else the price per kilograms come down 90% which sort of gives them a bit of a many monopoly on space and spaces evolve from kind of weird narcissism and nihilism like people like space tourism as a stupidest fucking business i'd ever heard but space hauling is huge and uh connectivity and then where i think you're going to get real from real serious like um new unicorns is going to be in space defense like what is the underl underl as i was called of space and it might be underl uh but there's going to be some companies who um are going to say we're the best to build in weapons deployed in space and those companies are going to go crazy so i think that the next kind of big technology that results in a massive increase in attention capital and companies who never heard of becoming unicorns is um this base [Speaker 4] that's investment you don't have access to tiktok us so uh trump in what is socialism means [Speaker 2] cronism is basically forced China to sell tiktok to a group of Republican donors that is total bullshit socialism uh denial of rule of law and he's carving it up like a birthday cake and giving it to us Republican buddies and they're getting it for a song supposedly their price is 14 billion 50% of the revenues are going to go back to the ccp um uh which technically makes it a $28 billion price tag uh it tiktok's US business is about 12 billion revenue if you assign the same multiple alphabet has despite the fact tiktok's probably going fast in alphabet which is 10 you get an implied valuation of 120 billion so it's effectively these guys are getting um getting a four and a half acts on their investment from day zero when they are awarded the company and unfortunately as democrats we don't have access to this investment but this is probably the biggest hundred billion dollar giveaway i think in recent memory based on cronism and a lack of a feckless neutered uh co-equal branch or or not equal other branches of congress that should be blocking this deal but this is the this will be the easiest way that any group of people have made a hundred billion dollars in 12 months listen to a question what happens to tiktok when democrats win back [Speaker 4] government control it's a really interesting question the problem is they're so fucking old that [Speaker 2] they just don't understand it and i don't know how they unwind that deal do they unwind it i don't know i'm not sure i'm not sure anything happens because you know what's it's like trying i we know instagram i mean congress really fucked up approving meta-sacquisition of instagram they fucked up letting alphabet acquire youtube these would be two great companies competitors battling it out lowering rents on advertisers and consumers because there'd be more options for advertisers but once these acquisitions are done they're very hard it's it's very hard to break out companies so i don't know i don't i don't know if anything's going to happen it's exactly what Jonathan [Speaker 4] Kant has pointed as well just this retroactive approach to policy is so useless it never gets us anywhere so hard prediction number seven short form video and ai meteors strike hollywood since 2019 [Speaker 2] us restaurants have come back and then some airlines have come back and then some concerts broadways back to almost where it was hotel occupancy is slightly down theme park attendance is still slightly down but the film industry is off 30 to 40 percent since covid it just never came back when industries are in structural decline it's like something happens and takes they have a step change down and they never recover and if you're a listener in the creative community here you absolutely want to run as fast as you can to a small screen if you're if you're making shit for the big screen i went and saw that movie battle after battle the Leo de caprio movie was called battle after battle yeah one battle for another it's literally peak artistic masturbation spells do the thing cost 200 to 300 million it's you know it's a decent film on Netflix that should a cost 12 million we're all talking or i'm in time for a while for a couple years now about how AI is coming for hollywood and that all of the you know these these unions who just think they're so fucking precious and not and somewhat immune from a market realities are just going to have such a root awakening and i think that the elephants get hold of these assets and have to justify or find efficiencies from overpaying for these things AI is coming for them what people aren't talking about is these short form video platforms like something called the kids dianna show has 137 million subscribers versus disney at 128 million subscribers so these really short form it's basically quibi but with better storytelling i mean megawoman and jeff cats and verge of their credit they were actually right in 2019 one of my predictions was quibi would fold and i was right they were just ahead of their time and that is we're basically punching out into the market a group of adults who have attention spans of two to three minutes and the idea of a series that is two three or ten minutes seems weird to people my age but it's actually kind of in line with the brain being trained by tiktok and so i think a lot of these platforms are going to start to a road share not only from traditional streaming networks but especially for movies i even find myself i have a tough time sitting through a movie and i think it's because i've gotten so used to short form video and i will not go to a movie unless i know it's at least good if not great i just won't do it i won't take a risk on a movie where it's when i was your age ad i used to go at least when i was a teenager i would go to two movies a week i would just see everything i would see everything when it came out and the good movies i saw Empire Strikes Back like six times i saw grease five times wonderful movie ad uh i don't know if you saw grease if you ever seen grease with john chivalton live indian john of course and jeff conway who later died of opiate addiction um fantastic film anyways uh these short form video first it was tiktok coming for them and i think that you're going to see a bunch of upstarts with new platforms yeah it's just going to be streaming streaming video will hold on uh movies are just gonna it's sometimes it's darkest before it's pitch black i think you're gonna see more theaters closed and i think you're gonna see unless it's it's just so discouraging but we're just gonna see sequel after sequel after sequel because the cost i just saw a movie called Ruth man which is a wonderful film uh barely broke it'll be lucky if it breaks even just no one seeing movies anymore let's move on to your eighth prediction waimo speeds ahead [Speaker 4] so a million trips uh september 2025 they've pulled ahead of absolutely everybody it's a it's a time [Speaker 2] machine i think i think waimo could drive about half a trillion dollars in value at alphabet because if you want a trillion dollar company got to build a time machine this gives back a ton of a ton of time to people and uh the cost you know the downside of waimo is the car cost about a quarter of a million dollars versus versus Tesla's at 40 and buy dues at 30 but i think that cost will come way down because of the lidar sensors but uh the two domestic competitors tesla and zoos are absolutely nowhere compared to waimo there i mean waimo in um 2025 had nine million or it looks like it's gonna have nine million rides i think tesla's gonna have less than a hundred thousand and so a zoos so um you know tesla's one and a quarter million miles with a human safety monitor in the front which kind of defeats all purpose and waimo's already a hundred million miles so uh the other player that's really going to benefit from the autonomous explosion in 2026 is going to be uber who i think dara cost was shy is one of the brightest managers in tech right now and he's taking an agnostic approach letting all of these players massively spend on the technology and he'll just be the front end and uses custody the consumer to offer people autonomous across a variety of players so i think as the distribution kind of mechanism for for uh autonomous i actually think it'll be a winner everyone's saying was gonna eat into their business i think he's smart and is gonna actually benefit from it [Speaker 4] ninth prediction humanoid robots are the self-driving calls of 2015 better now i should have said [Speaker 2] they're the segue this is just so fucking ridiculous again more weapons of mass distraction for milan boss trying to get people not to look at the fact as a car company worth a hundred billion not one point four trillion and he even said that uh robots would for comprised 90 percent of the enterprise value of tesla basically what he's saying is i need to find something to be 90 percent of the value because it's not here with cars and i just don't think i it's just so interesting people don't do any consumer research the last fucking thing i want in my home is a robot traipsing around i mean it's just so ridiculous what if it was really exclusive and expensive yeah i don't think i'm quite that level of douchebag but um now i don't want a robot i don't i just think these things are ridiculous i don't i don't see these things i don't think they've done any consumer research around do people really want a humanoid robot traipsing around their house in addition the utility's just not there they don't the technology's just not there and this is one place you're going to have a million non-college or you know non-high school grad mostly men put out of business because the experience unfortunately the human contribution to that job the delta's just not that much greater than or it's less because they're more dangerous than an autonomous whereas uh quote unquote whatever you call it domestic help is still 10 x what a fucking robot's going to do in your house these things just don't work and they're creepy and they're weird um so i again this is the segue the the autonomous 10 years ago vastly overhyped a weapon of mass distraction going nowhere listen a question is now the time to short tesla i would never tell anyone to short tesla because i wanted to short it at 30 bucks a share what's it at now i i've been so wrong on tesla and this company is a meme stock meaning it's not connected to its underlying fundamentals so wrote they they could announce terrible earnings they could announce these robots make no sense and the stock could be up 20 percent it's been we come totally disconnected from its underlying fundamentals so rather than advice i'll say what i'm doing i'm looking at buying these two and three x leverage uh short positions on the magnum's intent including tesla because i think it's all overvalued right now just as a hedge not a big bet but just as a hedge that's out of the market you know it throws up and these things are off 50 percent i'll still lose money because everything is correlated you know my total portfolio will probably go down 20 or 30 percent but i'll maybe get 10 10 or 15 back if i if i take this short position so i i wouldn't tell anyone to short tesla because this company has become disconnected from its fundamentals a long time ago we'll be right back and for even more markets content sign up for our newsletter at proftumarchets.com/subscribe [Speaker 4] we're back with proftumarchets. 10th prediction, vice of the year is prediction markets. [Speaker 2] yeah these things are fascinating they have built into them the most incredible marketing and that is the the wisdom of crowds is fascinating and they become it's not only inside into what might happen but become self-fulfilling prophecies when you see these digital billboards in Manhattan saying 95 percent likelihood from i think it was kalshi that mom donny would win the election it becomes a self-fulfilling for filling prophecy and a lot of times these prediction markets really have insight into what's going to happen because you're getting thousands of points of light from different processors called human brains so and so it's incredible marketing more and more people get excited more and more people will be arguing over the you know Thanksgiving dinner about who will be present decide to make bets so and people love the dope of gambling and especially young men who want to believe that they can find easy riches without actually showing the grid and discipline of getting up and going to work and the kalshi CEO said something interesting he said if we're gambling then i think you're basically calling the entire financial market gambling and there's some truth of that the problem is it's going to be the mother of all insider trading because of if there's a one and three chance Eric Adams will drop out of the race in the next seven days what's to say he can or is even illegal for him to raise ten million bucks from his friends and say let's put ten million on me you know it's three to one that i'll drop out in the next week and then we'll make the bet and i'll drop out tomorrow and i get a twenty million dollar severance package for dropping out of the race in the next seven days i mean the betting is getting down to will this pitch be faster than 95 miles an hour so the temptation just to coordinate with people betting real time and manipulate the market it's just extraordinary here they're getting into the market or they're starting to bet on sports we have a very lax administration they will just give millions of dollars to the next i don't know he wants to build i don't know a dance hall or a disco or i i don't know pull he wants to put in pull dancing and you know the oval office or something the losers here hands down at the gaming communities i mean gaming stocks are down between seven and thirty eight percent ceasers off thirty eight ceasers i think ceasers off thirty eight percent all there's no you don't why be in vegas when vegas is in you and that is it's in your pocket and you're just saying a crash in vegas visitor volume is down eight percent of vegas the problem with it is that he's had another thing i mean so much about the most valuable companies in the world basically exploit a flaunt our instincts and and free safe play has been in short supply and envy of getting all these notifications on your phone is made a less sophisticated and matured brain of young man think that they can get rich quick with speculating and fifty percent of us men 18 to 49 have a sports betting account and about a third of sports bettors say they're addicted so this is and you know the consequences are pretty dramatic here when a state legalizes gambling there's a twenty eight percent increase in bankruptcies there's a huge increase in domestic violence and also my mom was a dosen at the belagio telling she's come home with all these fun facts gambling has the highest suicide rate of any addiction because if you become addicted to math people figure it out and try and intervene you can work at your house spend your kids college fun on gambling and nobody knows and so you feel like there's only one way way out it's a matter of one in five people with gambling addiction at some point attempt suicide 11th prediction synthetic relationships take center stage yeah i hope that we have gotten a little bit smarter about the damage that big tech and these platforms have done to young people in that we have a more prompt response to synthetic relationships i really do think these things are a real threat to our youth by the way i want to acknowledge there's some really positive things are potential about synthetic relationships a quarter of people 65 and older are socially isolated because they've outlived their friends and family or they're alienated from their family and social isolation among seniors increases the risk of a stroke by 30 percent and increases the risk of dementia by 50 percent and chronic loneliness is has the same impact on your health is smoking 15 cigarettes per day and also nursing homes are vastly understaffed and a lot of it you know a lot of what health care workers say in these nursing homes is that what what their residents really want is company what they want is companionship and so the share of the population that is 65 or older is going from 12 percent in 2004 to by 23rd it'll be 21 percent so i do think these these synthetic relationships have big opportunities with seniors seniors they'll be cementing companies there the problem is it should be educated three quarters of teens have used have had a relationship with an AI companion and half of them say they're using it a few times in month or more and four fifths of users are under the age of 35 which means Congress will do nothing because they'll all be watching fucking murder she wrote and have no idea that what a synthetic relationship is and they're just not in touch with this this technology and how dangerous it is and when you look at just searches for how to make a friend exploding on google and how lonely people are in the fact that their amount of time they spend with their family each day has been cut by two thirds in the last 20 years and the number of high school teens who sees their friends every day has been cut in half in the last 15 years and the number of people stating that they're lonely is up 60 percent you just see where this is headed and that is people sequestering from society especially young men and I've said this before that big tech wants to evolve a new species of a social asexual males and it's you know one in eight one in eight people say they have no close friends one in seven men says they have no friends and unfortunately there's so much profit in this because the amount of the average duration or time spent on chat GBT is 14 minutes and get this said the average amount of time spent on a character AI or with a character AI the average amount of time is 93 minutes these things are really seductive so I would I hope that our elected representatives and some scholars really take a hard line against synthetic relationships for people under the age of 18 I really do think that it's pretty basic the most rewarding and stabilizing thing in life are relationships but organic relationships and these things are sequestering young people from their family and their friends your final prediction here [Speaker 4] is that the college is dead narrative will collapse this is just hilarious all these people saying [Speaker 2] college is over and you don't need to have a college degree anyone is saying that usually has a double e degree and masters from Stanford and the parents as I'm in the full process around my kid applying to college right now whenever I hear people saying that I'm like oh your kid fucked up on the ACT and you're trying to make yourself feel better that they're not going to get into a good school there's just no evidence that that in fact is the case and the the narrative is very striking you know the number of people who say college is very important Republicans it's gone from get this it's gone from 70% in 2014 to 20% basically Republicans think that college is no longer important and yet anyone with any money is going to work their ass off to get their kid into college and Google and Apple have all made these big announcements that they no longer require a college degree because it should be skills based as opposed to certification based which I agree and that's a great idea but meanwhile their hiring hasn't changed at all the number of workers without degrees is increased a whopping three and a half percent and half of firms have made no changes at all so the distinct of the fact that college supposedly has no value you're still seeing big firms who are you know we kids who come to school think they're the customer they're not corporations are the customers of colleges kids of the product and the kids that get corporations to show up and pay incremental salary in exchange for an admissions department that makes sure the kid is in mentally ill has group skills critical thinking and a little bit of training but that value is still there now that's not to say that white collar workers are going to go through a down cycle or new college grads because of AI but the down cycle won't be as bad I mean there might be an uptick in vocational programming but it's still a pretty good plan B and people have been talking about Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg dropping out of college to start these amazing companies and I just say the same thing assume you are not Mark Zuckerberg and what we see is that over time the average median household income for two college grads is 133K in the medium the medium household income for people with high school education since 58,000 and by the way last year it didn't change and people who graduate from college have much lower divorce rates 26% versus 39 lower obesity 27 versus 34 two thirds of people go to college to get married versus half of people without a college degree and men with a high school education were twice as likely to die by suicide versus those with a college degree and this is you know one of my big social pushes is that if you had a pill that increased the likelihood you would get married run for Congress have strong household income and decrease the likelihood you would be obese take your life be abusive be subject to conspiracy theory have diabetes wouldn't you give that drug as many people as possible but instead we and higher education who think we're really noble have decided to hoard this drug and artificially sequester supply there's no reason to Dartmouth Harvard and these schools with over a billion dollars in the diamonds couldn't double triple quintuple their enrollments and actually pretend that they're fucking social servants or civil servants as opposed to Chanel bags so what's happened this year despite college having no value enrollments fall undergrad enrollments is up 4.7% and so and by the way it's the southern schools and the public schools that are booming the problem is see above how fucking corrupt me my colleagues are is that public schools have increased their tuition since 2000 adjusted for inflation by 53% that's adjusted for inflation and private schools are up 32% in the last 25 years adjusted for inflation the good news is we are seeing we've seen an 18% increase over the last five years in trade schools that's a hopeful sign but the notion that somehow college doesn't matter be careful with that and I'm not saying that your kid should go to a second to your school and take out a bunch of debt if he or she really isn't cut out for school but this whole narrative of college is going away and you don't need college anymore yeah that that that's bullshit those are the [Speaker 4] predictions before we go here there was a final reflection from one of the viewers who watched this prediction's live stream they say this is the most depressing hour I have spent in years because I am afraid that Scott isn't wrong what would you say to that well my last slide was [Speaker 2] I think a lot about risk in the markets and my life how risk aggressive I've been and it's paid such huge dividends in terms of starting companies even if they failed I started again expressing friendship making overtures to to women who were out of my weight class you know my father's wrist DNA I inherited some of that risk aggressiveness from my parents who decided to take huge risk and leave their families in the UK I think a lot about risk and how I diversify against risk now that I'm older and I don't want to lose all my money for a third time but I think that unfortunately what we have is we've tied our economy to trying to increase or decrease young people's risk aggression around relationships and that is we've said you can get all of your risk aggressiveness out on betting on sports or on who's going to win the mayoral race or taking risks online by saying really incendiary things and seeing how people respond and that's the miss one of the greatest miss allocations of a resource in history and what I would suggest to any young person especially young man is take less risk with your money try and be a little more risk risk averse with your money and try to be much more risk aggressive with your time and your relationships in that is don't take as many risks with Calche Polymarket Robinhood and crypto and take more risks by getting out of the house and approaching strangers and expressing friendship and expressing romantic interest that that's where risk needs to really increase take more risks outside of the house and take less risks on your screen nothing wonderful is going to happen to you without taking risks but there's bad risks and there's good risks in expressing friendship telling people you care about them telling people you're interested in them those are the good risks that that young people need to take more of [Speaker 4] this episode is produced by Claire Miller an engineer by Benjamin Spencer our associate producer is out of some wise me as a very as a researcher you don't research associates are the better council d'Angelaan and Chris no Donna you drew burrows is our technical director and Catherine Dylan is our executive producer thank you for listening to property markets from property media tune in tomorrow for a fresh take on markets [Unknown Speaker] ♪ In the bright, in the bright ♪