Saturday, July 18th. What’s Next for Markets and Mortgage Rates?
34m 3s
The transcript covers several economic and financial topics, starting with early earnings season, where companies are posting strong growth, particularly in technology and energy, though high expectations sometimes mute stock price reactions. Retail sales show consumer strength, with core spending healthy despite lower gasoline prices. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s congressional testimony focused on central bank independence and a data-driven approach, avoiding firm guidance on rate changes. In housing, non-qualified mortgages are gaining traction among wealthy individuals with non-traditional income, enabling asset-based loan qualification. Meanwhile, a record number of young adults live with parents, driven by housing costs and affordability, but financial advisors argue that lifestyle expectations and money management also play key roles. Tax issues with Trump accounts are flagged, as seven states have not aligned with federal tax benefits, potentially creating state-level tax liabilities for dividends and contributions. Finally, historical lessons from the Roaring 20s are discussed, noting how innovations like electricity and assembly lines fueled economic booms and stock market bubbles, emphasizing the importance of learning from past mistakes to avoid repeating them today.
Eyes are still on the fed early earning season so far so good and take a look at some retail sales here today. This is money talk the annex wealth management shell great to have you here chief economic strategist dr. Brian Jacobson on the show is always hey Brian. It's wonderful to be here looking at a lot of things another busy week early earning season I guess so far so good. I would say so it's been interesting the market reaction to some of the releases because coming into this earning season. According to fact set the expectation was for businesses to post about a 20% or more increase in earnings from a year ago that would be the second quarter in a row of more than 20% earnings growth which is very strong you don't typically see that type of rebound or acceleration in earnings except for coming out of like a recession so it's pretty impressive as far as some of these numbers and it's not just technology it's also energy obviously a lot of energy companies. They have been enjoying the gains from higher all prices and we'll just have to see what happens with the straight from you as us Iran right that stuff that's way above our pay grade we don't try to predict it it's more about trying to build a portfolio that can weather whatever the storms are that get thrown at us but in terms of some of the big names that came out I would highlight there were companies like asml and TSMC these are companies that are very much involved in the semiconductor industry asml they do. So a lot of machinery that does it TSMC they kind of you know create the semiconductors their numbers showed me strong growth but the stock price reactions sometimes weren't maybe what you would expect because it shows that even with high expectations that actually just creates a high var for those companies to need to clear in order to push prices higher and real quick let's explain what a semiconductor is and that's right yes so the semiconductors if you think about it it's like the brain of your computer and these are really important because. With all the spending on artificial intelligence the data centers is really powered by these semiconductors then there's also the memory chips so the memory chips if you want to think about it that Ian Phillips are managing director of the client and community engagement she had a really good analogy where she talking about imagine your kitchen where the brain is almost like the chef and the pantry is like the memory and really important components to making a good dish you know a lot of people want to part of those semiconductors let's talk about retail sales Oh yeah I always love looking at retail sales the consumer showed that they were in pretty decent shape with gasoline prices in June having gone down from the previous month the retail sales for gas stations dropped more than 5% on that month but most of it was because of the price of gasoline and then the other areas of retail spending were actually continuing to show some strength so if we exclude gasoline station store sales and auto so people buying cars and trucks and things like that retail sales were actually pretty healthy so it's impressive how resilient the consumer has been despite some of the shocks that have been thrown their way over not just this year but over the last five to six years these are still on the fence share a wash already on the hot seat yes he was he had his semi annual report before Congress so twice a year he gets to do the song and dance where he actually testifies before Congress it's part of congressional oversight of the Federal Reserve Congress created the Fed and they have to have their due diligence and oversight and what he was testifying on was basically you fed independence what he thinks might happen with the economy as far as inflation artificial intelligence most of his statement I think we're just really underscoring the fact that it is a regime change it is a change of the guard going from chair Powell to chair wash he's going to run things differently he's not going to try to paint the Fed into a corner saying that oh yeah we think that we need to cut rates or we need to hike he's not going to try to give that sort of what's called forward guidance it's more about this is the way that we kind of look at the world look at the economy we think that artificial intelligence it could be a great productivity enhancement in which case longer term it could read lead to lower inflation near term there been a lot of shocks with energy prices and we're just going to have to see how that plays out in the data going forward and to take a look at the housing market we bring in director of financial planning Eric strom at annex wealth management. So Eric thank you so much for being here we wanted to talk about mortgages and mortgage rates so from your perspective what you're hearing from clients and what you're seeing as well as far as your all of your industry intelligence what's going on with the housing market especially with higher income individuals yeah and we all know where mortgage rates are now but there are some very interesting trends that we're seeing especially like you mentioned for higher net worth individuals and one really big one is what are called non-qualified mortgages so these are mortgages that the bar where it doesn't meet conventional lending requirements and these are actually comprising a very large percentage of larger mortgages even over a million dollars or higher what these are these are not subprime mortgages surely not low quality right so these are really increasingly being used for people let's say that an investor maybe their asset rich but they don't have conventional income requirements like a job or sure or in many cases of certain borrowers need money to close much more quickly than a conventional mortgage so these non-qualified mortgages with the rates having been a bit higher lately and some client needs changing are becoming incredibly popular they just have a lot of unique attributes they so I've heard that from people like in retirement or starting retirement right if you need some sort of income qualification like well what do you do if you're in that position where you don't have that steady income maybe you're not collecting social security the income requirements coming from your IRA distributions or is it that they just look then at your assets look at your portfolio because they understand that while you're not getting a W2 so what are they going to do for some of the analysis oh yeah that's right and so even you know sort of more conventional mortgages routinely will obtain your assets and of course as someone who you know you and I both I'm sure bought homes and we go in it and everything and with that I'm sure that many of our listeners have gone through this but what's happening now even with conventional mortgages is you may not have started social security yet maybe you haven't started required minimum distributions but you might have built up a pretty decent nest egg and of course you have to tell the show the lender all of that information and yeah then they will use formulas to say okay they've got let's say two million dollars in between taxable accounts and IRA and maybe a 401k and they have formulas based on that to qualify even if you have no actual income but you have those assets so you're right that that trend has even affected conventional mortgages as well that now for listeners right conventional mortgages those really came from those government sponsored enterprises like fanny may Freddie Mac as far as you know they help originate the loan so banks will originate it and then sell them off to these government agencies or government related agencies but they have certain caps as far as the amount that the loans can be they have those qualifications so jumbo mortgages are above that and I think the most recent numbers are something like 833,000 is kind of that line if the loan is going to be more than that it's a jumbo so it might be non qualifying or if you have a unique situation without standard income yeah that's where this can come into play so it's never been more important than ever to shop around for the best mortgage rates available and it follows the market trends on a daily basis and can help guide you through the numbers with an experience team that is all in house you can make informed decisions have a clear plan no pressure we listen first then work with you towards the lifestyle you want click that get started button at annex wealth dot com this is money talk the annex wealth management show no the difference with annex wealth management well this new realtor dot com report finds that a record 25.2 million a million Americans under age 35 roughly one in three young adults are living with their parents as rising housing costs continue to put independent living out of reach for a lot of people despite common stereotypes about 70% of these young adults are employed and the trend is driven more by housing affordability and a shortage of available homes than by unemployment the report highlights a US housing deficit of roughly 4 million homes along with the home prices and rents that have increased significantly since 2019 creating a generation of delayed home buyers and renters so how do you say what do you do director of retirement plan services and annex wealth management Tom Parks is back on the show hey Tom thanks for having me what do you think is the biggest barrier preventing young adults from moving out on their own today it's not just laziness we don't want to say that but you know it's kind of starting those saving habits earlier or the education that we provide here at annex I think it's a ton of different things and I agree with you that thing that they say 70 plus percent of my employed so it's not an issue I don't think for the most part of laziness or anything like that they're working they have income and stuff like that the idea in the article is they're living at home because they cannot afford to live anywhere else and the reason they can't afford to live anywhere else is because houses are too expensive that's the premise and there's for sure truth to that but I do think it's an over simplification the reason they can't live somewhere else is because houses cost too much there are other reasons people don't have enough money to buy a house and people need to take a step back and say okay what are my overall money behaviors that are resulting in me not being able to do some of the stuff that I want to do I would say it's kind of where people need to start the conversation because we have this with clients all the time part of the reason you and I are having this conversation
people might be thinking it was the 401k guy I have to do with any of this. Part of it is when we go out and we talk to people and they're saying, "I can't afford to save enough for retirement." We ask them, "Why can't you? What are you doing with your money that's making it so that you cannot do this thing?" And I would apply that same question to the housing market. Yes, houses are expensive. I look at all this stuff from an overall budgeting perspective. You look at how much cars cost, what are car payments, student loans, all of those things contribute to people not being able to spend money on the house. It's not just the house. Well, and how does that affect your retirement? And the trickle-down effect for generations moving forward in that family and the family dynamics? You've seen all the graphs that we use talking about the time value of money. And this is where I tell the younger people with whom we work. And the younger people here, we got a lot of young people starting here. Start saving now. Start with something. We say 10 to 15% of your pay and all that good stuff. Even if you can't do that much, start now because the time will be so valuable for however many dollars you put in there. It's going to make a huge difference a decade or so starting earlier than waiting later. So it does impact all of these things. I just push back on the, it's because houses are too expensive. That's why people can't do it. I would say absolutely that is a part of the equation, but it is not the whole story. The overall behaviors with money. You look at social media and all this stuff. People with the lifestyles, they are at least purporting to live. And they are not reasonably priced lifestyles. So that's a big part of it, I think. As people just need to kind of completely reset their expectations of what can I afford. And the reality is a lot of people cannot afford the lifestyle that they want to have. And it's like too bad to be careless. Look at my daughter as an example. So I have a daughter who's 20 years old. She is living on her own. She has a roommate. Her apartment is not glamorous. And then there were some new apartment buildings there. And she was like, oh wow, those are so cool. But she's like, oh, yeah, but I can't afford to live there. So she doesn't. What happens is too many people are like, yeah, but I really like it. So I want to live there. And it's like, that's not how money works. I think that is the bigger issue. They can't afford a house. And it's like, no, no, no, they can't afford the house that they want. They would be able to afford a house that they don't want so much. But that's how it always used to be. And then you'd save up later. And you can get a bigger house later. I think expectations are a big problem. Well, a lot of people say, I want to enjoy it now. I don't want to enjoy it when I'm older. And I came over around as much. So I think maybe sometimes that's the thinking. And we hear that too. And I understand that. But I also explain to people, if you spend all of that money now, and you're not saving any of it, now we're back to the whole long-term compounding growth issue, then you have to make a sacrifice. That's life. The question is, are you going to make a sacrifice now? Or are you going to make one later? And the longer you wait to make the sacrifice, the fewer your options and the more severe the sacrifice. So I think when we look at the living situation, there was the whole narrative of these people playing video games in their parents' basement. I don't think that's what we're talking about here. I really don't. The question is, what is the combination of money factors that's keeping this from happening? I just don't think it's as simple as the housing price. But overall, the standard of living is way better in the world and in the United States than it was decades and decades ago. So yes, there are challenges. They are real. Is it exponentially worse than it was for our parents? I don't know if that's the case. Director of Retirement Plan Services, Tom Parks, thanks for being on the show again. Thanks for having me. Click that get started button at anixwealth.com. Thanks for being with us on Money Talk. The Anix Wealth Management Show, Director of Financial Planning, Eric Strahm is here and back to Chief Economic Strategies that annex Dr. Brian Jacobson. There's some really interesting aspects to Trump accounts to keep track of. Eric, you've were flagging something that I thought was really undercovered in the media about the importance of state tax law. That's right. I live in the state of Wisconsin. Out of our 50 states, there are now seven states left in the country that have not yet passed legislation to mirror the tax benefits of these Trump 530A accounts. And what's very important, and I'll use Wisconsin as an example, but there's also California and Massachusetts and some other states. To be very clear, Wisconsin did not actively choose to do this. It's more just because we have not passed any law yet. But this is very, very important because under current state of Wisconsin law, the tax deferred growth of Trump accounts is not applicable at the state level. So in other words, I already opened up to for my daughter. I've got each of my two daughters now have Trump accounts. And any dividends, and by the way, 80% of companies in the S&P 500 pay dividends. Yeah. And we're all defaulted to the S&P 500. So everyone will be getting dividends if you're in a Trump account. These dividends are going to be taxed at the state level in Wisconsin. Unless something is passed. And in addition to that, it's believed that under current Wisconsin law, employer contributions if a company, which already major companies have announced, that they're putting in money for these kids. Under current state law, that money is taxable as well. And gift contributions. So, you know, we've all seen, I think it was Michael Dell and others who have, those are taxable to Wisconsin as well. Unless legislation is passed. And this is very problematic because even if one of these other large states like California intentionally doesn't pass certain legislation, then it's very likely that Robin Hood as the custodian will, you know, generate these tax forms and that we're going to have a mess to clean up if this does not get passed. I can't even imagine what that might look like if you need one tax form for federal purposes. And then you have to make all those adjustments for state purposes. Does that happen in other parts of the tax code? Well, there won't need to be tax forms at all, assuming that all seven states fear this. Same like 529 accounts. I don't get a tax form. I've got them for my kids as well. I don't get a tax form for that. So, very important that people are aware of this. We're in an interesting place at the state level and we're keeping an eye on it. Financial planning at every level, Annex Comprehensive Wealth, Annex Private Client, and Annex Ignite. Hey, couples in retirement is coming up this Thursday, July 23rd at our Brookfield headquarters. Retirement, a major transition beyond just the finances. Explore lifestyle, health care, share goals, other resources that maybe didn't know even existed. So, you can reserve your spot space is limited on the events page at AnnexWelfth.com. Well, in celebration of America's 250th, we have been taking a look back here at Annex on the history of the American economy and the decisions good and maybe not so good times. Well, we've learned that led to where we are today. And last time we looked at the creation of the federal reserve, which was very interesting. The income tax and World War I. This time, a big era, a big decade, the roaring 20s. So, 1920 to 1929, some people have been calling the 2020s the roaring 20s. There are a lot of parallels and to help us break down these parallels, chief economic strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobson, electricity and car manufacturing, led to kind of a big boom during that decade, along with some other not so good things, which we have cherished have learned from. That's right. And it is interesting what we can learn from history. And hopefully learning from the past, so you don't repeat the same mistakes of the past. And I think one of the big lessons from the 1920s is that oftentimes, these innovations, electricity, the assembly lines. So if you remember, like Ford Motor Company, they didn't exactly invent the assembly name, but kind of perfected it. They are. They really did. And in terms of what that did to lower cost, it created more of a consumer society. Along with a lot of these innovations, you also get investment and some of the enthusiasm from investors. So we almost had during that 1920s period of time, this massive increase in productivity, along with an inflating of a stock market bubble as well. The stock market ordinary people were able to kind of jump on board for the first time. Yeah. And sometimes they did it without their life vest. So they jumped on board, but didn't actually put on their life jackets. And you saw a massive increase in the Dow Jones industrial average throughout that era. There were a lot of people who were saying that, well, these valuations, these price increases are justified. You had stories about individuals like Shushain boys that were giving out stock tips. And also you had the thing called leverage margin lending, where people could actually borrow up to 90% of the amount that they were then investing. And really that created some of those vulnerabilities. You have this story, which had substance to it about increased productivity led to some new error thinking, coupled that then with some debt. And then that's actually creating those vulnerabilities that eventually that bubble did pop. You know, we talk about kind of managing expectations and risk and all those kinds of things. And even the smartest people kind of got swept up in the hype. They really did. So there were two economists that I would really point to that some people probably heard of Irving Fisher. He was a very famous economist. He famously or infamously said about how he thought that earnings had reached a new plateau that there was nowhere to go but up. Now he was talking about earnings, not necessarily for the market, but it's been construed to kind of reinterpret history to be like he was saying that the market was going to keep going up. And shortly thereafter, it actually, that's when the bubble popped. And also another famous economist, John Manier-Kaines, who he came up with a lot of the ideas for coming out of the Great Depression about how to work through that. He lost a lot of his money during that bubble. So economists aren't immune to some of that new error thinking. You've learned from it? Hey, yes, that's right. Yeah. What to say? What not to say? So what is this error kind of tell us today? What did we learn? Yeah, I think some of the big lessons obviously be humble with some of your projections about stories about the future. Don't get caught up in the hype. And also be very careful about leverage. I think
See, that is one of the things that caused a lot of vulnerabilities was just the amount of people who were investing based purely on debt. Some people say debt is a four-letter word, right? D-E-B-T. It doesn't always have to be, but it can be especially in very speculative areas. The roaring 20s prove that the most dangerous words in investing are this time is different. Next week and next episode, the day the music stopped and the decade that changed government forever. Check out more of our 250th of America's economy on the NX YouTube page. Know the difference with Annex wealth management. You might have heard about a high profile legal dispute between a professional racing athlete and a major insurance company shining a spotlight on the complexities of retirement, planning, and financial products. So this particular case in this situation raises questions about how investment and insurance strategies are marketed, the importance of understanding the risk, and what consumers should expect from financial advisors and providers. So what is the lesson investors can take away when evaluating long-term wealth and retirement plans or life insurance products? Here to help us walk through this particular situation, manager of financial planning at Annex wealth management, Tom Burke, Ultae Tom. Hey, thanks for having me, Joe. So this is an interesting situation. It is since gone viral, very famous professional racing athlete who has unfortunately since passed away. So his family might be dealing with this along with their legal team. But it is, we want to say this is a circumstantial situation. We are involved with situations like this, plans like this with some of our clients. But when consumers evaluate retirement focused financial products, what are the most important risks they should understand before investing? Yeah, great question. Because at the end of the day, we're product agnostic here where we think every different product has advantages, disadvantages, and strings attached. So in this situation, it sounds like this professional athlete was kind of sold something that he didn't fully understand. There may have been a different type of insurance that may have been perhaps more suitable. But at the end of the day, I think the lesson here is really that it's important to know, I mean, we say it all the time in the radio, but it's really important to know what you own, why you own it and how much it costs. So how can investors maybe distinguish between realistic projections and optimistic performance? Yeah, because generally these products are sold by some sort of life insurance agent. And they're going to show what's called a, known as an illustration where it's kind of like a spreadsheet grid layout of, hey, this is how this policy can perform over time. And this is what it looks like in your 70s, 80s, and 90s. At the end of the day, these are just illustrations and there can be different assumptions baked into it, like different rate of return assumptions, different fees. Often the illustration can be more rosy than the actual outcome. So it's important to ask those questions. Know what questions to ask. And if you haven't figured it out by now, this is Kyle Bush, he is a professional racing athlete or was and who has since passed away. So maybe they didn't know what questions to ask. Maybe his team didn't help him pick the right plan, but what questions should somebody ask a financial advisor or maybe an insurance agent before committing significant assets like he had to a long term plan? Generally, it's always good to start with, hey, what type of life insurance product should I own? In general, life insurance is a good idea. Like you want to protect your family, you want to protect your loved ones, but it's about knowing what type of product because there's generally two different types of life insurance out there. There's term and permanent. Term is the most straightforward, generally it's the most cost efficient. I like to think of it as like your cable bill where you just pay this monthly bill and if you pay for it, you get the service. Similar with term insurance. If you pay the monthly premium, you get the death benefit protection. You can cancel at any time type of thing. On the other hand, there's the permanent life insurance, which is designed to last your entire life. It's more complicated because there's a cash value component and the performance can vary. And the worst case outcome that the policy can actually drain to zero and potentially laps. Well, and you looking at the term versus the permanent and for me, until about, I don't know, five years ago, I didn't know what the difference was. So term meeting, it expires. Yeah, term. It's generally you purchase it for a set period of time, like 20 years or 30 years and then it expires. Along the way, you can also cancel it at any time if you find that you don't need it or want it anymore. Where permanent insurance is designed to last your whole life. And where do the misunderstandings come in with some of these plans? They often arise around maybe complex products that combine insurance and investment features. So then it gets a little bit complicated. Yeah. And there's more misunderstandings that are. And that permanent life insurance side, there's all these different types of products. There's IULs, there's VULs. And to your point, they can be tied to investment performance. It can get really complicated because there's different caps and spreads and participation rates and all these things that can hinder performance and that the insurance company can change as you own the policy. So it can get complicated. Well, and we do have legal experts here at Annex wealth management. But what legal and regulatory protections exist for people who maybe didn't ask the right questions and they weren't fully informed about the risks of a financial product? Yeah, I always think it starts with getting a second opinion with these. So if you're ever being pitched one of these products, just bring it to someone who can look at this and give you an independent third party review because sometimes these are irreversible or there's large fees to get out of if you start one of these. But in terms of the regulatory things with this is that they're generally regulated by the state. So each state has their own insurance commission that would regulate these. In my opinion, I would like to see even more regulations scrutiny around these. I think sometimes the licenses you need to sell a product like this. I think the barrier to entry sometimes is a little bit too low. So I'd like to see that improve in our industry as well. Ask the right questions. Take it to a third party. Maybe those are some of the other lessons that we can especially high net worth individuals and everyday investors take from the situation. Yeah, of course. He is manager of financial planning, Tom Berkholz at Annex wealth management. Thanks for being on the show again, Tom. My pleasure. Click that get started button at annex wealth.com. Hey, thanks for having us on today. This is Money Talk, the Annex wealth management show. The show is also a podcast and ready for you at the top of the hour as soon as the show is over. A lot of people are finding us that way. So thank you if you've downloaded Money Talk, wherever you get your podcasts. Another way to get our free education is with the axiom. That is our newsletter with our week and review video from this show in your email on Sunday morning, along with what we're watching for the week ahead for our clients. Just search annex axiom. It's a really great way to stay up to date on things that can really matter to your portfolio. Three other podcasts as well, like the wealthiest ideas, strategies and decisions of the wealthy in America. Also, the SWAT podcast strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the current market with a new episode. Women and wealth podcast featuring special guests helping to empower women through genuine conversations, director of financial planning, Eric Strommas here and chief economic strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobson. Yeah, thank you. So America turns 250 this year. We've been celebrating that. You can celebrate it year round. And I always like birthdays as an opportunity to reminisce, but then also to look forward. And what I really liked is that for clients, you and your team put together the planning outlook, which was actually a celebration of like 250 years of financial planning in America. So let's go through some of the highlights there. And I think maybe let's just start at the beginning in terms of Ben Franklin. I think most people have heard about him. They think about him for those spectacles that he wore and the kite. Yes, exactly. But he did more than just that and all of his witty sayings. He was pretty pivotal in the world of insurance as well. Yes, he actually founded America's oldest property insurance company, which believe it or not, is still operating today from 1752 to today. This was a fire insurance company. At the time, houses burned down much more often than they do today. So members would join Ben Franklin's property insurance company and they would mark their buildings with a fire market. It was four hands clasped together. And that way the companies, you know, fire brigade would know which houses were insured. And if they got on fire, they look for the market. Okay, this one's good. Can we extinguish that fire or not? Exactly. And then what's interesting is later on, they stopped covering trees that had any houses that had trees in front of it because it was too hard to get those out. And so then another, that started a competition. So another company was created, Mutual Assurance Company. And they would put a leafy green tree stamp on these houses and say, okay, we're covering those houses. And so it's very interesting that Ben Franklin's legacy was that as well. And so, but the, the less in from that is that we're all facing risks in our life. And we want to know what those are and when appropriate, have insurance for that. Sure. Yeah. The insurance planning, doing that type of assessment, incredibly important. So with Ben Franklin, one of his famous sayings was about, you know, in this world nothing can be said to be certain except death and taxes. But during that period of time in the 1789 period, Congress didn't really have the authority to tax income. There's another phrase that came up during that period of time called not worth a continental. Can you talk a little bit about that and how that ties into financial planning? to fund the revolution, the Congress at the time of the Continental Congress.
They couldn't tax. So instead, they printed about $240 million worth of what we're called Continentals. And starting in the 1770s, as economic warfare, Britain started flooding the colonies with counterfeit bills. Which is kind of amazing. And it absolutely worked. So the paper dollar became practically worthless over time because of this economic warfare. And after the war, those notes were just redeemed, you know, a penny of the dollar. And some Americans were even using them to, you know, wallpaper. And because they just weren't worth anything. It's an interesting story. But it really reminds us all that inflation is real. And you need to build your financial plan with inflation in mind. Incredibly important. Yes, absolutely. Yeah. But planning over the future have to incorporate inflation. But now let's fast forward about a 100 years to a really interesting story about the accidental birth of the 401k. Yeah, and come to think of it, it's 200 years, right? Yeah, that's right. This is the 1970s. And a lot of people don't understand that the 401k that very many people are familiar with is actually completely came about by accident. The section 401k when it was written was really meant to clarify an obscure tax treatment of bonuses for people getting bonuses. But there was a man Ted Benna. He was a benefits consultant and he was creative and looked at the wording and said, you know what? You almost could read this section as in a creative way to let workers save pre-tax money into this language that was kind of written. And so he started finding companies that would be willing to adopt it. And the first company talked to you said, no, I don't know. Sounds risky. Seems like a loophole. They probably close it. So Benna said, you know what? Never mind. I'm going to start this at my own firm. So in 1981, his own company started the first 401k and it exploded after that. And now we have over $8 trillion in 401k. It's so ubiquitous. Hard to imagine that it was actually kind of a niche thing when it came out. Now let's fast forward now to today. What do you think when we have the benefit of a few more years under a belt that history will say about this era that we've been living in? So a term that Annex has come up with is we refer to from 2017 with the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act through 2025 with the big, beautiful bill. We are at Annex referring to this as the rolling reform era of tax law because it is an absolutely unprecedented time where eight major pieces of legislation in eight years reshaped hundreds of provisions, eliminating the stretch IRA, completely changing, requirement of distributions, many more changes. And if you look back at the Bush tax cuts, the Reagan tax cuts or any prior period of tax change, we have never seen so many changes so quickly due to a combination of COVID, Trump, error policies and the rare by partisan work on the Secure Act. So a very interesting time period that we've been in lately. Another episode of Money Talk, the Annex Waltz Management Show, the podcast version is ready right now on the radio station website or just search Annex Money Talk for Eric Strom and Dr. Brian Jacobson, I'm Joe Kraus, have a great week. Annex Waltz Management LLC is a registered investment advisor. For more information about our firm, please visit AnnexWelk.com. The information in this podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is subject to change without notice. The opinions expressed are those of the participants and don't necessarily reflect on those of Annex Waltz Management LLC. Information presented should not be construed as tax, legal or investment advice or a recommendation or a solicitation for the sale of any product or strategy. Listers are encouraged to seek advice from qualified professionals to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Investments involve risk. Neither Annex Waltz Management LLC nor its podcast participants shall be liable for losses resulting from decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on this podcast.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Early earnings season shows strong growth, with expectations of over 20% earnings increase for a second consecutive quarter, driven by technology and energy sectors.
Retail sales data indicates consumer resilience, with healthy spending excluding gasoline and auto sales, despite declines in gas station revenues due to lower prices.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s testimony emphasized independence, a cautious approach to rate cuts or hikes, and the potential long-term impact of AI on productivity and inflation.
Non-qualified mortgages are increasingly popular for high-net-worth individuals, especially those with asset-rich but income-light profiles, such as retirees or investors.
A record 25.2 million young adults live with parents due to housing affordability, but financial behaviors and lifestyle expectations also contribute to this trend.
State-level tax issues with Trump accounts (529A) persist, with seven states not mirroring federal tax benefits, potentially causing tax complications for dividends and contributions.
Historical parallels from the Roaring 20s highlight innovation-driven booms (electricity, cars) and stock market bubbles, offering lessons for today’s economy.
Summary:
The transcript covers several economic and financial topics, starting with early earnings season, where companies are posting strong growth, particularly in technology and energy, though high expectations sometimes mute stock price reactions. Retail sales show consumer strength, with core spending healthy despite lower gasoline prices. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s congressional testimony focused on central bank independence and a data-driven approach, avoiding firm guidance on rate changes.
In housing, non-qualified mortgages are gaining traction among wealthy individuals with non-traditional income, enabling asset-based loan qualification. Meanwhile, a record number of young adults live with parents, driven by housing costs and affordability, but financial advisors argue that lifestyle expectations and money management also play key roles. Tax issues with Trump accounts are flagged, as seven states have not aligned with federal tax benefits, potentially creating state-level tax liabilities for dividends and contributions.
Finally, historical lessons from the Roaring 20s are discussed, noting how innovations like electricity and assembly lines fueled economic booms and stock market bubbles, emphasizing the importance of learning from past mistakes to avoid repeating them today.
FAQs
The expectation is for businesses to post about a 20% or more increase in earnings from a year ago, marking the second consecutive quarter of over 20% earnings growth.
Retail sales were healthy when excluding gasoline station sales and auto sales, showing consumer resilience despite falling gas prices.
Non-qualified mortgages are loans that don't meet conventional lending requirements, often used by asset-rich individuals without standard income, such as retirees or investors needing fast closings.
A record number of young adults live with parents due to rising housing costs, a housing deficit of about 4 million homes, and increased home prices and rents since 2019.
Tom Parks believes it's not just housing costs but overall money behaviors, including spending on cars, student loans, and lifestyle expectations, that prevent saving for a home.
In states like Wisconsin, tax-deferred growth and employer contributions to Trump accounts may be taxed at the state level unless legislation is passed to mirror federal tax benefits.
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