The podcast episode previews the upcoming autumn term in British politics under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, following a month in office characterized by rhetorical restraint and minimal spending decisions. The hosts, Sam and Anne, outline key challenges and strategic pillars. First, the energy price cap rise on Wednesday will be partially mitigated by Burnham's VAT cut, but the government is deliberately avoiding "cost-of-living" language, instead framing policies around "breathing space" to manage inflation concerns. Second, three major events define the autumn: the Labour Party conference, the October 28 Budget, and a 10-year plan, which will introduce thematic, cross-departmental reforms, potentially including structural changes like abolishing Natural England and tackling utility sector issues. The Budget is expected to be orthodox, prioritizing market stability over radical spending, with defense and social care decisions deferred. Burnham's leadership style is highlighted as "pouncing" on issues, contrasting with his predecessors, and he focuses domestically, delaying major international engagements. Foreign policy under Ed Miliband may see stronger criticism of Israel and renewed development commitments, though fiscal limits persist. EU relations remain uncertain, with incremental trade improvements but no bold vision. Overall, the episode emphasizes Burnham's strategy of buying time and sequencing decisions to avoid the mistakes of previous leaders, while facing pressure to deliver tangible outcomes.
Hello, Ed Conway here. Here is what might sound like a slightly random question.
What do airports, bananas, and a pair of shotally made running trainers from the 1970s have in common?
On the surface, not very much. But, on my podcast Stuff Matters, I will uncover the deeper stories
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Hello, and welcome to the final of the summer series of politics at Sam and Anne's,
the podcast that tells you what's coming up in British politics. It's week four of August.
The heat wave may be over, but we're still on fire, aren't we? And our host pipe of news,
oh yeah, bringing you this bumper back to school edition of the podcast. Look,
what's coming up for Andy Burnham's premiership, this autumn. I'm Sam Cotes of Sky News.
And I'm Anne McKellvoy from Politica, wondering how many metaphors Sam can get into an intro?
This is the last weekly Monday episode of our podcast. And full of post-holiday,
them, we are back daily after the bank holiday. And then every Monday to Thursday, we'll have
everything you need to know about the week ahead in British politics in under 20 minutes
in your podcast feeds before 8am plus those debrief specials on bigger occasions we know you like.
But this autumn, there is Anne innovation. Yes, we're doing something new and it's an exciting
one. It's also potentially, well, there's a little bit of jeopardy. And now we've been noticing
that a lot of people and I genuinely mean quite a lot have actually been watching Anne,
rather than just listening, watching the video versions of our summer special episodes on YouTube.
So with that in mind, from next Tuesday, we'll be in vision too, if you can handle it and you can
find us on YouTube. What's the jeopardy? Well, as you know, dear listener, we record at 640.
So that means it will capture every yarn, every eye roll, if I'm going on about, even the stairs
of my podcast partner. You'll see our homes are caffeine intake or exotic European destinations.
Otherwise known as hotel curtains. Spoken there with the language of a man who is not
fretting too much, Sam about how to get your eye makeup on at 530. Yep, you're going to be seeing
us as we really are recording before most of your breakfasts or or commutes and to reassure you,
you will still get the pure audio version in your feeds pre 8am and the visual version on YouTube
not long after big shout out on all of this to our producer Evan Hall who's nimble fingers
and even more agile brain will make it all happen. Well, you'll view on the makeup question.
I think I am going to have to do something more to assist viewers with the shock of what I look
at 640 in the morning when we record each day. But and I am reassured that our listeners and soon
our viewers want the analysis, the insights, the schemes and the Kremlin website updates as
leaps at least as much as they want eye candy. So with that in mind, we've been rinsing our contacts
talking to people around Westminster. Let's get on with the meat of the show. There's the energy
price cap rising on Wednesday this week. It's expected to go up by more than the value of
Andy Burnham's week one that price cut on energy bills. So to put some figures on that, well,
corn will insight think that the cap will go up gross as 66 pounds a year from this week.
It would have gone up a further 45 pounds if we haven't hadn't hadn't had sorry that measure by
Burnham to remove the 5% that from household electricity bills. So some relief there. Then the
week after Parliament is back and we're going to have a huge number of statements all of those
announcements we got over the summer and remember that the new Prime Minister started after Parliament
had broken up for the summer. He's not appeared there yet in Israel and we haven't had a PMQ's
own joy. We look forward to that. A little thing I picked up and it flows on from what you were
just saying about the idea that the VAT cut that Burnham announced doesn't cover the increase
in the electricity price cap, the energy price cap. And it's exactly that kind of thing that's
one of the reasons that I'm told this government is explicitly moving away from quote and quote
cost-of-living language. Now that's the language you heard from Kirstama and Rishisuna.
But Andy Burnham's not going to use it. He's going to start to lean into this concept of
the government giving people breathing space with their day-to-day lies because they know that
the cost of living is to explicitly link to inflation which is completely out of that control
that we saw from the inflation figures last week and it has the potential to keep going up because
of Iran. Right. Back to today and what we're aiming to do to that I think is quite a practical
episode looking at all of the different bits and pieces for the autumn term. So you can book
mark a lot of the little things that we expect to going to happen along the way. But we're just going
to take you through sort of five big things he's doing and needs to deal with. But just before we do
that and we've had a month of the guy, what's your impression in kind of in 60 seconds of how Andy
Burnham started? Well, I think you've just taken us into the kind of shifts that he's quietly
making. Drawing a line yes with the Starmer Europe. So the breathing space message is intended
to manage expectations. Some things can be altered quickly, others can't. We've seen the new PM
focus on speaking to voters directly all these videos over the summer. Quite pragmatic on small
beer topics so to speak from business rightly for pubs to keeping bus fares down. Ending rough sleeping
target by Christmas. That's certainly ambitious. But he's chosen at least a conscience stirring
issue. Sam I think he knows appeals to a lot of people who really want to see that Labour still
stands for something very values driven. And he does have on hand Louise Casey who is an acknowledged
expert in bringing forward a work to a plan on that. I think there are also some implicit retreats
from the kind of soft left agenda a lot of his original fans would have wanted. So there's no
mandatory target for instance all social rent homes in new developments. Now that was actually
proposed in the planning policy framework from the government at the end of last year. There was no
sign that Andy Burnham then would have disagreed with it. My box inbox has a lot of I rate comment
on that by the way. And there is a slightly muddled message on asylum which I think we might just
end up having a look at as we we go along you know that message. I'm going to spread out more
asylum seekers across the country at the same time he wants to show that he understands the concerns
and the concerns that are driving a lot of Labour voters into the arms of reform. So we're quite
interested to see where that lands. I think he has to sort of sharpen up a bit on that because it's
been it's been one thing and a bit of another over the last weeks. That's interesting. Okay here's
my 60-second review. The thing I've been most struck by with Andy Burnham's premiership is
how little he's done and in particular how little he's spent money-wise. Now that might sound
a curious thing to praise a Prime Minister for but I I'd be really struck his opening has been
big on rhetoric but short on decisions that hem him in. And the reason I think that's important
is it's such a big contrast to his predecessors Keir Starmer who within you know the first month
had done the Winterfuel cart and got the big black hole all of these things to find his premiership
within the first month of Liz Truss. She'd spent nearly a hundred billion pounds on the energy price
help. That was pretty much actually in the first week. Both of those things big decisions taking
a hurry arguably too fast done at once both helped to end their premierships and Andy Burnham's kind
of very much done the opposite. Instead much of the first month has been pure politics talk
about devolution while at the same time every big spending issue from defense to social care
to social housing sort of put on ice while they work out a longer term plan of how to pay for it.
So his aim has been to buy himself time and you know that also matters because that's not the
Andy Burnham we were used to as you were saying in your review. We were used to a guy who would
shoot from the hip spending tens of billions of pounds here and there to compensate what's
be where women in an interview you know throughout suggestions of boring more. That's just not
the guy that we've had that Andy Burnham appears to be put back in a box and he's begging for time.
Now he absolutely absolutely needs to now come up with plans to solve those issues you know
and like homelessness in Manchester he didn't quite solve the big things he set out to although I'm
told that was it's about to do with a sign-um decisions interestingly which he doesn't mention
but the big thing for me is and I think it's a positive is that he's simply brought himself
breathing space by being quite good at politics. I love the idea that there's a sort of Dorian
Gray and Andy Burnham hypnotic somewhere in Manchester. I don't feel policies at all. I love it.
But let's go to explore that. So that theme as we go forward. The big contours of this autumn for
everybody's diaries and notebooks. Sam I think you've been seeing it in the frame of three big
interventions which I thought was very smart which is party conference in Liverpool from September
the 27th remembering that last time he went to he went there to begin to try to topple Keir Starman
and everyone went off, well that didn't work out well, here we are a year later.
So he can feel some pride on that.
The budget on October the 28th, that's quite early.
The 10-year plan, not another one,
but a bit like the short-lived predecessor plan of Kirsta,
I mean, both leaders do seem to love these long-term horizons.
That was promised on the steps of Downing Street,
and I think it's likely to come in November, as far as we know.
They are deliberately decoupled from the budget
and the budget cycle and pushed later,
which may also have its reasons in again,
in terms of managing expectations.
These seem to be the big trio of pillars for the autumn.
There's no spending review.
That's pushed off to next year,
which is quite a long time,
after such a significant restart budget.
And I wondered what you made of that.
Is that a dog not barking in the night?
- I think that's more because they didn't need
to have one this early, that was reason one.
And reason two, because bluntly,
you've got budgets planned out for several more years to come.
And secondly, there are a hell of a lot of work.
And I think one of the things that this government has shown to me
that they're quite conscious of at the moment
is the need to sequence, not rush,
spread things out through the remainder of their time
in this parliament.
So there are two strategic reasons why.
Another little thing I've picked up
is that, you know, in that big three pillars thing,
there's no big rush to go on the kind of gigantic
premiership beginning foreign trips that we usually have.
Now, I think John Healy,
the chance low is gonna do a lot of foreign travel
with G7s and IMFs.
Ed Miliband has already begun doing his foreign travel
as you would expect as foreign secretary.
But I've heard that the PM's team has been telling people
internally that his main focus is party conference
and then the budget.
And then he'll think a bit more
about the international stage after that.
Now, of course, events might have to bring forward
a White House trip or a visitor key, for instance,
but I was told pretty much the time of recording,
not to expect a White House visit, you know,
in September, in terms of the planning.
So internally, it sounds like Bernam is pushing on
with his desire to emphasize the domestic
in contrast to Kirstama.
Does that work?
Do you think that's a good idea around?
- Well, I think it's quite complexifying
if you are, say, Ed Miliband or the top brass,
the foreign office, a new foreign secretary,
he's clearly enjoying this new gig.
He wants to step out Ed does as much as he can.
But it's really hard for his planners to sort that out.
Until they know if Andy Burnham is the prime minister
is going to something or not.
This is something I think that Bernam will have to get used to
when you're prime minister,
that everybody else's decisions or calendars
and diary commitments fall over from yours.
So it's sort of saying, well, I'll kind of make it up
as I go along and then I'll see how I go.
That can be a little bit difficult
when you're trying to sequence things
on the international stage.
Obviously, there are particular dates
when other leaders are going to go.
I'll give you an example.
If you look at something like you in general assembly
coming up at the back end of September,
it's a bit opaque what's going to happen there.
Now, at some point when it was Kirstama,
he usually thought he'd show up to most things, right?
And I'd get on a plane or so with my colleagues and yours.
But it's a bit harder if you don't really know
if the prime minister is minded that way.
And that's so interesting what you say
about no eminent big sit down in Washington
because there's also a school of thought advising Bernam,
this isn't only foreign offices like Jonathan Powell as well,
who will be saying like, it's easier to meet Donald Trump
for the first time properly on his home territory.
Yes, it's got risks, but trying to do it at these summits
when it can be a bit of a drive by the US President,
it's very easily distracted as we know.
And as you can end up being a bit dismissed
and that would look terrible.
So I think there's a big question there,
which until they resolve that,
we will keep asking when's it going to meet Donald Trump.
So I think that is something that they maybe will need
to give attention to quite quickly.
I get the sense that is in the weeds
and people are trying to get a bit of attention there
to talk about it.
So I think there's still quite a lot of talk going on around that
and how that will be done or will it,
will we just see more of Ed Miliband out and about
in the short term.
Yeah, this 10 year plan, right?
A lot of that obviously flows from global events
and more local political events and the economy.
But do we actually know very much about it?
Well, this is one of the things I've been digging around
about trying to find out a little bit more about.
As it's built right now to me,
and we'll see whether it remains like this,
but it sounds like a really big deal.
I'm told the 10 year plan is the moment the government
sets out its overarching narrative.
But there's an acceptance that they came in very quickly
without the kind of running to an election
where you can plan for things and the kind of the months,
even the sort of full leadership contest
that gives you a bit of breathing space.
They hadn't had that time.
So they're using the 10 year plan as the moment
to sort of launch that.
Almost think a bit like the kind of coalition plan
that came in in 2010 after the Tories and Lib Dems
came together.
What it'll involve is a series of documents
that are done thematically.
It's not one document per department,
but a series of themes that cut across Whitehall.
I've told that there could be,
quote unquote, chunkier structural stuff in there.
So that means maybe changes to the way
that government works, maybe even quite the structure of it.
Let me give you a couple of concrete examples
of what I think we'll see in the 10 year plan.
First of all, essentially that's the moment
we'll get the deal around the utility sector.
We know that Thameswater, the utilities more generally,
Andy Burnham worries that they put profit before people.
That doesn't work for taxpayers.
It doesn't work for citizens.
That's the moment, I think, where
they start to come up with a solution for that.
But I also think in the 10 year plan,
there'll be more stuff around growth.
So one example, like I felt I picked up,
was round about then we could get changes to the way
that everything knits together.
So you could, and this is one thing I think
is being discussed, even see an end to something
like natural England, the body that looks at sort of supporting
nature and is often used in size in development cases.
But potentially even its abolition.
I feel like some naughty bits of white hall
are in this new team site.
So I'm actually thinking of Deffra,
the government department for food, environment,
and rural affairs, which somebody's just saying,
it's a total mess.
The quote actually was Deffra's such a basket case,
it's worse than DCMS, the culture department.
So that's Angela Regal's department,
worse than Leeson Andy's department,
if you want some names by those departmental structures.
So it's not just a speech, this 10 year plan.
It's a set of documents, and it's a set of documents
that's designed to be, yes, full of hope and direction,
but also quite chewy in the moment
that we can see some stuff change.
And I would guess that they don't want
to call this another cross departmental approach,
breaking silos, let alone missions.
Does anyone remember the missions of Pierre Starve?
You'll get like big extra points if you can rattle them off.
About in the missions, just one of the areas
and when they put in a completely new media strategy
like whole government communications service
with a new boss, David Titsmore is there.
One of the big questions was, is anyone understand the missions?
And I think the answer to that was not flattering.
Just some of those things you've mentioned,
I think I'm seeing fascinating whether a 10 year approach
is the right one.
We often hear it said, and there's a lot of truth in it,
that if you've got problems with planning with infrastructure,
if you often take the idea of China,
go out of the air, of course, many downsides
to doing things the way the Chinese do,
but you know that if something is promised,
there's a fighting chance that it will actually appear,
if it's promised in the next plan
and it won't just disappear under a welter of objections
and kwango, so I do understand that.
But I do think there are pitfalls here.
One that I just know a bit more about probably is water.
And yes, I understand the profit before people point,
and I know it's very much on people's minds,
if you spend any time dealing with water companies,
particularly the very underperforming ones.
You know what you're talking about on that score,
but it's massively expensive to bring water into public ownership.
Whatever the form of air you talk about,
mutualizing, you can smudge it, you can fudge it.
I don't think we're going to be looking
other than perhaps in extreme cases
and it tends water is always the one that is presented
because it has failed in its duties quite badly.
But you've got a solution there,
which is really a solution to the problem
of the worst of the private equity
and quite a lot of them are private equity owned companies.
But a lot of the listed companies are actually doing fine.
I've just said I'm trying to come to mind.
There are others that are like,
so hang on, why have you got a 10-year plan for everything?
I mean, we're not trying to go back to some kind of
Soviet way of running utilities.
And I think there will be a lot of conversation
about that also once you put the costs on it
because it sounds 10 years does not speak water down the cost.
Admittedly, you could have argued that it spreads
the cost of infrastructure upgrade,
but it still comes to a big bill.
Can you really delay oil and gas decisions
to a 10-year plan?
I suppose you can set the direction of travel,
but what we see happening in the Straits of Hormuz
has meant that even you can see a lot of labor voices
sort of changing their tune a bit about oil fields
and going back to drilling in the North Sea oil fields.
So I suppose they were just a couple of examples.
Natural England, you took me a bit by surprise on that one.
I know there's often a lot of churn
and we're thinking about these big quangos.
But if I were looking at the greens coming off,
me. Also, the getting rid of natural England would be the step that would be first on my
agenda unless there's a clear plan to put in something that a lot of conservation-minded
people would think, yeah, Labour is not just going to bulldoze most of the parts of England
I care about. I think that's a really good point. Public ownership, public control is the
language that Andy Burnham often talks about and I think they're trying to work out what their
definitions of both are. You mentioned oil and gas. I think the advantage of delay in the oil
and gas decision to the autumn is very simply it's colder. I think they looked at the idea of
announcing more oil and gas while we were in the middle of a heat wave and decided that that was
just impossible politics. So what's the sort of mitigating plan? I wouldn't I would just expect
that to go ahead. Should we turn to challenge number two for Andy Burnham? If challenge number
one was the telly of plan, challenge number two is the budget. And this is really interesting
for me. Now, remember the backdrop? Andy Burnham appears in the past. We've had a real
dislike for the Treasury. He didn't enjoy his 2006-7 stint as chief secretary to the Treasury.
He's blasted Treasury conventional thinking and interviews in the past. You know, he thought
about splitting it up before he became prime minister. So that's all of the backdrop, right?
But as I understand it, the signals are that the October 28 budget is going to be, well, for one
of the better word, quite orthodox, right? And so for those on the soft left, and you mentioned
disappointment of the soft left earlier, those on the soft left who want a sort of radical first
budget, well, I think they think that their priority first of all is to reassure the markets
because the markets react in badly with beer disaster. So what John Healey do this in the coming
weeks. I'm told this is this is just going to be something he does. He's going to go round and he
did it last week, and he'll do it again, repeating that the UK has the fastest deficit reduction
plan in the G7, which it is, according to the IMF. And I cannot stress enough to all listeners.
If John Healey is repeating that, he's committed to it. He's sticking to it. They aren't going to
turn on the spending taps. So the first thing that I gleaned is that even if there's a little bit
of extra flexibility over boring, under existing physical rules, isn't going to be a lot. They've
decided the markets matter and MPs looking to loosen. Well, bad luck. The second thing,
is it sounds like they've taken a lot of big spending decisions off the table for this budget.
Yes, there's the six billion pound black hole that leads filling after Keir Starmer's defense
investment plan, but I can reveal they're not going to try and find the money to fund the rise to
three percent or three point five percent of GDP in the budget for the defense budget. That'll come
the spending review next year. And they're not going to try and find the money for social care either
because Louise Casey's got a report. And that's a year away. So two of the biggest spending
issues are going to be deferred. And then thirdly, yes, there will be some tax rises. They won't
break the manifesto. It can't be a revenue neutral budget in all likelihood because, you know,
you begin underwater. But look at that. Row over bank taxes. Ed Conway was telling us that's a
fruitful place to raise some money. Jamie Diamond from JPMorgan has been hitting back. But what about
windfall taxes on energy companies profiting from the high prices? So the big unknown treasure
will be telling ministers that we just don't know what's happening to prices and inflation. So you
need to keep something back for that. But, you know, all in all, this does not feel like a budget
that's going to be on the scale of, you know, some of those of recent years.
I think that's the likely direction of travel, but I do still think there is a question here about
Andy Burnham and the economy and how he's going to position himself. He can simply hand it over
to a save pair of hands as you say, do a quite orthodox budget. But let's not forget, you know,
sometimes we pass lightly over the fact that this was the Andy Burnham who wants to speak about
bond vigilantes who came in hot and heavy about the markets. Now he has retreated from that kind
of rhetoric, but I think they say in that great film, the social network, the internet is written
in ink and people do remember this. Investors remember this happen to be lots of European investors
just over the last few days abroad and there's a little concern about this and they want to know
what who is this Andy Burnham person and what kind of global economy does he think that he wants
to run on behalf of Britain. So that's an interesting tension as well as the nuts and bolts of
the budget that I think he's still maybe, you know, maybe a lot of people say, don't worry about
that, it doesn't matter. I think it does and I think at some point he will feel that he's tested
on it would be better to have an answer. He's quoted people like Lord O'Neill,
Jim O'Neill, we featured on this podcast recently to be more fiscally elastic and inventive
while being seen as a very straightforward banker, a kind of labour banker, you know, I mean like,
not everybody would say, like, you know, Jim O'Neill's review of finances there, but he's very
respected. At the same time, those negotiations with number 10 for him to join more fully in an
advisory role, they seem to have stalled a bit Lord O'Neill said to have some, you know,
queesiness about the prospect of any idea of wealth tax as being demanded by the PM supporters
and his own, you know, what would become his own personal investments in that scenario. So I
think you can just sometimes see a bit of tension there about whether Andy Burnham's fundamentally
economic outlook is defined by what went before or by something subsequent. This city is also
wondering, I think, whether the treasury is back in the driving seat because, yes, John Healy is a
very strong cabinet minister, but he's not often thought about as being sort of wildly inventive
in terms of his view of finance and the economies talked about bringing things back to Britain,
weapon systems, et cetera, to be built here to slightly small P protectionism. Again, you know,
how does that fit when you're trying to do bigger deals where you have partnerships and you take
a more of a risk load for Great Britain in order to drive us forward on the growth curve.
So I think these are the big underlying questions. If they're not answered, I think a lot of people
in the Labour world say that's fine by me, like this is kind of an okay budget for me, but I think
you might then open up an opportunity for the Conservatives reform as well, but I would say particularly
the Conservatives to say this is not enough and where is this growth bazooka that you promised us
o Labour party when you came into office no matter who's in charge. I agree. I mean, we could,
under my way of telling it, end up at the end of the year with not knowing how they're going to
pay for defence, social care and the like and just having too many big questions and I wonder
where that leaves us. Just to trot through challenge three, domestic policy, we don't know a huge
amount yet. There's a huge list of things left behind by the last government, like send reform.
We've already had a bit of a scurvy show for prison releases. I'd make one observation on
Andy Burden's style on this. I think he sort of expects everyone else to sort of get on with it
and then suddenly pounces, he's a pouncer. And I think Alex Norris that he just has actually found
that rather to his surprise and discombobulation with prisoner places. You know, he's sort of like,
the Prime Minister is suddenly there present, puts himself at the heart of the policy debate,
brings in a whole load of people and you sort of all of a sudden this area that hadn't really been
touched or thought about is absolutely at the heart of the debate. And Andy Burden's stylist is
trying to get everybody a room and get his hands dirty looking for compromise, compromise, you know,
alternative solution, alternative solution. And that's his method. So you can suddenly find yourself
at the eye of the storm. And that's his, so we could find a bit, there's a little bit of lurching
that might go on on domestic policy this, this, this, what do you think? I love the idea of a pouncer.
I would perhaps put in a word for Andy Burden. I'm a Prime Minister, he's thinking, listening to this,
which we'd love to think he is. Of course, I can pounce. That's literally my job. But I have
the pouncing rights. So if I think something's important of going the wrong way, I can intervene.
I can see if you've got a brand new justice secretary, that must have been quite challenging
and bruising. It's a bit like, you know, equivalent in our world, if someone very senior,
chiming in here in an email, chaining, oh, God, what? Sorry, no. So yeah.
It was just not what Keir Starmer ever did. That's the, I think that's what's really fascinating. That was a problem for Keir Starmer.
I think we were violently agreeing there. That was a, we clashed in mid-air. That was exactly a problem for Keir Starmer.
Nobody knew what he cared about any more than anything else. So I suppose to, to give the Prime Minister some
rope on that one, you could say, well, if he comes on in hot and heavy and says, I'm really worried about
the way this early releasing is going, he is then using his rights and his heft. I thought I might
just swing us quickly towards foreign affairs. Could I do that? Just because this, because it's a
bigger world out there and there's an awful lot going on in it. We talked a bit about Ed Miliband
and how is that balance of duties with the Prime Minister to get a workout, but they will sort that out.
They seem to be have a pretty benign relationship. I do think we aren't going to see quite a big shift
on Gaza policy. I think it is just, you know, being, being, being pitch-rolled already that this
recognition of Gaza, of course, affected under Keir Starmer, but that that will go further.
There will be much stronger language about it. I think in Ed Miliband, actually, under Andy Burnham,
you got a recognition that this was seen as an area where a lot of people who are very supportive
of the Palestinian cause will have been very turned off by Israel's content there in the Gaza Strip.
I think we'll see a lot more what Stammer avoided, which is direct criticism of Israel and for
[BLANK_AUDIO]
it's already building up now with a very strong international statement on the settlements
and declaring that they are illegal and they've written Germany and a number of other countries
see some of those settlements, obviously, they're very specified on the map where they are
as being a problem and taking that straight back to the government in Israel. So I think
that will be quite a big deal. And not to forget, also, you know, this switch, if you've
got Edmilla Band coming in saying, I really do believe in tackling climate change. We've
had this incredibly hot summer in an awful lot of damage across Europe and beyond. So I
think he feels that he's got a moment he can leverage there, but that would not have
been what we've heard. You've got Cooper, his predecessor talking about in detail, and
that he really wants to put development back on the table. He says it tells you it in
the conversation with Edmilla Band, or his team. And of course, that raises that figure,
that ghostly figure of the 0.7% of GDP for development and development related causes.
And it's, you know, there is a commitment to return to it over time, fiscally, I can't
see Edmilla Band creating a headache for John Healy by saying, I'd like this to happen
very soon. But again, it will be seen as quite a switch of priority. It certainly is in
the foreign office where they're all running around trying to figure out what the new
foreign secretary wants fastest and most of. But I think it will feel very different.
I think Edmilla Band wants foreign secretary to feel like a big job, because don't forget
he thought he would be Chancellor. Somebody said to me actually that Edmilla Band's plans
for the first 100 days of Chancellor have now gone in the same draw as the 2007 Gordon
Brown election manifesto that Edmilla Band was meant to write. And the first 100 days
planned for Edmilla Band as Prime Minister in 2015. And in the draw now, then went the
also unused plan to be Chancellor. So he wants to make this into a big deal. And that's
where some of the tension actually is. There's a bit of a skirmish. There's an olie write
story in the time. It's about whether or not Edmilla Band really has much of a say
on Europe policy. Some suggestions that he doesn't. And it's the ambitious Hamish fault
there very much in that. Do you want to just have a last word on where you think we are
with the EU? I never quite know what a closer relationship looks like beyond this darn
scheme for students. But what a real economic deepening of the relationship could mean
beyond the kind of automatically taking EU rules that Keir Starmer signed us up to. And
it looks like Andy Bennett is going to continue. What do you make of where we are?
Well, I think that's exactly the problem isn't I? I mean, I feel like I've spent my life
condemned to cover the closeening of ties to Europe, you know, like that arrow in the
Greek mythology that never reaches the target. It's always flying through the air. There
is that determination to signal to Europe that we are interested in the big reconnection.
But does you say you're right? Once you start to get, we actually do have a fairly by Europe
standards reasonably open trade deal with with Europe signed in in a hurry after Brexit.
There is bits of that that you can improve, you know, around farm up particularly as the
American situation in trade gets worse that you could make arguments there that you
can just keep tightening those screws, get the farmer deal better, get the stuff my Brussels
political colleagues really expert on. So I lean on them a lot in terms of agri products,
what cancels are what happens if you put a shrimp is it still a fresh fish or isn't it?
You know, there's a lot of that stuff, but it does really affect trade and it does affect
tariffs and the more that you can get some liberation from that, particularly for small
businesses who've been very frustrated trying to trade with the continent and vice versa.
So I can't see that going that I would say I'm not just heinous fault, there is ambitious
in this regard, heinous fault is slightly hamstrung because he's partly for an office,
but also because he's got this rule with managing relationships with the devolved entities
in the UK, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales. He's therefore also very much in the more
of the cabinet office and I think that's already beginning to be sort of a little confusing
about how, you know, what's the priority of his role? Initially, I think I thought he was
going to be the successor to Nick Thomas' sims on the train all the time, the Eurostar
going off to talk to Mara Sheffkevic, the trade boss in Europe. And the meantime, I actually
think Jonathan Reynolds and trade and business has managed to chime in there and seems to
have started some talks himself in treating, going to show that there can be lots of cooks
in the European kitchen, but whether we get a full alacol menu back from it, I think it's
still very questionable.
I think there will also still be a summit, which gives us another pillar for the autumn,
which is probably a good point to end it. Lots of pillars, a one which to rest are podcast
with. It's fact-filled update for what's coming up in the autumn. Can't wait to start
with the five o'clock alarms again on Tuesday. We'll be back there in 4K vision for all
of you. See you then. Have a great last few days of recess and we will see you for term
time proper. Next week has its challenges, but will be absolutely great to hear from
and see and vice versa our audience again because that's just one of the great joys of
this podcast.
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On the surface, not very much, but on my podcast Stuff Matters, I will uncover the deeper stories
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast announces a return to daily episodes after the summer recess, with a new video format on YouTube starting next Tuesday, recorded at 6:40 AM.
The energy price cap will rise by £66 a year, partially offset by Andy Burnham's VAT cut on electricity bills, but the government is shifting away from "cost-of-living" language to "breathing space" to manage expectations.
Three major autumn pillars
The 10-year plan will be thematic, cross-departmental documents, possibly including structural changes like abolishing Natural England and addressing utility sector reform, including water nationalization debates.
The Budget will be orthodox, prioritizing market reassurance, with no major spending on defense or social care (deferred to next year's spending review) and modest tax rises, avoiding manifesto breaches.
Andy Burnham's style is described as "pouncing" on issues, contrasting with Keir Starmer's approach, with a focus on domestic policy and delaying major foreign trips, including a potential White House visit.
Foreign policy shifts under Ed Miliband include stronger criticism of Israel, potential Gaza recognition, and a push for development aid, though fiscal constraints limit immediate action.
EU relations remain vague, with efforts to improve trade ties but no clear path to deeper integration, and internal confusion over roles like Hamish Falco's.
Summary:
The podcast episode previews the upcoming autumn term in British politics under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, following a month in office characterized by rhetorical restraint and minimal spending decisions. The hosts, Sam and Anne, outline key challenges and strategic pillars. First, the energy price cap rise on Wednesday will be partially mitigated by Burnham's VAT cut, but the government is deliberately avoiding "cost-of-living" language, instead framing policies around "breathing space" to manage inflation concerns.
Second, three major events define the autumn: the Labour Party conference, the October 28 Budget, and a 10-year plan, which will introduce thematic, cross-departmental reforms, potentially including structural changes like abolishing Natural England and tackling utility sector issues. The Budget is expected to be orthodox, prioritizing market stability over radical spending, with defense and social care decisions deferred. Burnham's leadership style is highlighted as "pouncing" on issues, contrasting with his predecessors, and he focuses domestically, delaying major international engagements.
Foreign policy under Ed Miliband may see stronger criticism of Israel and renewed development commitments, though fiscal limits persist. EU relations remain uncertain, with incremental trade improvements but no bold vision. Overall, the episode emphasizes Burnham's strategy of buying time and sequencing decisions to avoid the mistakes of previous leaders, while facing pressure to deliver tangible outcomes.
FAQs
It's a podcast that discusses upcoming events in British politics, hosted by Sam Cotes of Sky News and Anne McKellvoy from Politica.
The podcast returns daily after the bank holiday, with episodes from Monday to Thursday, each under 20 minutes, available before 8am.
Starting next Tuesday, the podcast will also be available in video format on YouTube, in addition to the pure audio version.
The energy price cap is expected to rise by about £66 a year, though it would have been £45 higher without Andy Burnham's measure to remove VAT from household electricity bills.
They are shifting to a message of giving people 'breathing space' because 'cost of living' is linked to inflation, which is out of their control and could rise due to events like those in Iran.
The three pillars are the party conference in Liverpool from September 27, the budget on October 28, and a 10-year plan expected in November.
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