Roundtable Preview With Stan Van Gundy! Plus, How Good Are the Lakers?
1h 58m 39s
Stan Van Gundy provides a deep, analytical preview of the 2024 NBA season, focusing on team dynamics, roster risks, and on-court strategies. He highlights Indiana and the Lakers as the most unpredictable teams due to injuries and lineup shifts, while expressing strong confidence in Toronto and Houston. Van Gundy is notably skeptical of Minnesota and Miami, citing depth issues and defensive weaknesses. He identifies key on-court trends like ghost screens, pick-and-roll evolution, and offensive rebounding as pivotal for teams to adapt. His "Stan Crush" segment celebrates players like VJ Edgecomb and Dylan Cardwell for their energy and impact. A central theme is the importance of physicality and rim protection, particularly in countering Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Van Gundy also emphasizes how the new tanking rules and compressed win totals will elevate competitive balance. Ultimately, he sees the season as a test of resilience, with the Lakers’ defensive depth, especially Walker Kessler’s rim protection, as a critical swing factor. The episode blends personal insights with strategic analysis, offering a nuanced, player-centric view of the NBA season’s key questions.
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Coming up!
On the Zach Lowe Show, less than a week until the NBA season opens up
with the Knicks and the Sixers on rig night.
Stan Van Gundy, the one and only from Amazon Prime,
longtime NBA coach.
You know him, you love him.
We're doing a roundtable preview of everything in the NBA season
that's coming up.
Lots of big questions with Stan Van Gundy.
He makes his awards picks.
He makes his finals and championship pick.
We talk about the most important X factors of the season.
He's most likely Stan crushes.
The most interesting on-court strategy, tactical thing Stan, the coach, is interested in.
His most confusing team, Rob Mahoney and I did our most confusing teams.
Who's Stan confused about?
Who he's higher on than consensus?
Who he's way lower on than consensus?
Some surprising answers from the one and only Stan Van Gundy.
And then Dan Wojcic is here.
Haven't talked much about the Lakers, even though they're the Lakers.
And I want to dive in, just like everyone's kind of assuming they're,
hey, you know, three to six.
What are they going to do?
Is there upside?
Is there downside?
Let's actually dig in to what's happening with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Luka Doncic, Austin Reeves.
How's Walker Kessler looking?
He just made his preseason debut.
Quinton Grimes, Mamou.
Are those guys fitting in?
Who's even starting for this team?
Who's going to own this team?
Is Rob Palenka long for this team?
How did we get here?
That's all coming up on the Zach Lowe Show.
Welcome to the Zach Lowe Show.
And look who it is, an all-time legendary coach and commentator,
my sometimes teammate at Amazon Prime,
and the most aggressive and trenchant questioner of Monty McCutcheon
during the Point of Emphasis presentation this year that I was at,
the one and only Stan Van Gundy.
How are you?
I'm good.
How are you, Zach?
I'm hanging in there.
We are five days away from Knicks, Sixers, Ring Night,
and Madison Square Garden.
I haven't checked.
I would have to imagine it is in the running for most expensive regular season ticket
in the history of the NBA.
I can't wait to be there.
I can't wait to see how Knicks fans take to success after 53 years of heartbreak.
It's going to be great.
Oh, it'll be unbelievable in there.
I mean, you know, they've got a great fan base anyway.
They've waited a long time, and they enjoyed the parade.
It was a magnificent event, and now the ring ceremony, I think,
will be.
Incredible.
So, season preview with Stan Van Gundy.
Basically, I sent you like six big questions,
some of which I've tackled separately on episodes before,
but everyone values your opinion so highly.
I want to hit you with the same questions.
Some new ones.
Are you ready to go with Zach's big questions for Stan Van Gundy?
Sure.
Question number one.
I did this episode earlier this week.
It's an annual episode I do.
My five most confusing teams of the NBA season.
I asked you, Stan Van Gundy,
who is your favorite?
Who is your most confusing team entering the NBA season?
Well, I think for me, it's, there's one,
I'll give you one in each conference.
I think Indiana for me.
Now, look, I want to qualify this.
For every team, there's a variance in health.
I mean, we all know that.
And I think Philadelphia might epitomize that more than anyone.
You know, are they going to be able to stay healthy?
But assuming health is equal across the league, Indiana, to me,
you know,
team that two years ago was in the Eastern Conference Finals and now will come back with
essentially the same lineup except for Zubat's at center instead of Miles Turner and yet when I
compare them to the other teams I don't know I don't know if I see them even in the top six
you know to get a guaranteed playoff spot but certainly they we know they have that upside
we've seen them do it so to me I don't know where they fall I have absolutely no clue I think first
of all we don't know what version of Halliburton are we going to get I think those Achilles injuries
are you know troublesome and then you just wonder if they've lost a little something in in two years
so I don't know where they're going to be if you told me they're going to be in the top four in the
East I'd say yep
I could see that and if you told me they you know are fighting at the end to get the 10th play-in
spot I could I could see that too yeah I have no idea how the standings are going to shake out in
the East I mean I have some teams where I think their floor is just so high that they're going to
be safe for the top six New York Boston probably Cleveland for me would fall into that Indiana was
on my long list for my most confusing teams I gotta tell you Stan I try not to put too much
stock in preseason I'm not going to put too much stock in preseason I'm not going to put too much
stock in preseason I'm not sure how much you've watched preseason I've watched probably more of
Indiana than anybody they look really good like I don't know if you saw Halliburton in Oklahoma City
where the injury happened and I've talked to some people on the team it was like a big deal
that he played that game in that arena I don't know what he finished with it was 20 something
points he looked awesome Zubats looks awesome he and Siakam already have pretty good chemistry
together Indiana has risen and again I'm trying to I'm
trying to check myself but they have risen in stature to me in preseason from a team that
I had already a ton of respect for based on how close they were to winning at all not long ago
and how much continuity they have to they're in my tier of like I think they could make the finals
now I again I don't know how seeds are going to shake out and I think more about playoff equity
than regular season record because the East is so jumbled if they're healthy I think they can
make the finals again I've loved what I've seen from them
but I agree there's like people are all over the place on Indiana and I think it all it comes down
awesome I love the way you said it Halliburton's injury we know right like there's going to be
setbacks ups and downs I love the way you said I'm worried they lost a little something and I think
for a coach who's so detail-oriented and in the weeds about x's and o's to zoom out like that
and say lost a little something because you know it when you see it they found something they found
a basketball Nirvana where the ball was popping everybody knew where to cut where to be everything
was flying around and I don't know if you've ever been on coach the team I mean you've coached him
that made the finals where you felt like we're in that zone where we've we've found it can we
sustain it but they found it well and what they found I thought as much as anything in that run
you know they had struggled defensively for a good part of that year if not the entire year
and then in the playoffs their ball pressure went up a notch and they really gave teams trouble and
with their depth the combination of their depth and ball pressure they really wore on people that
was a team that the losing beat them down last year as it would anybody and can you bounce back
from that or do you still have that you know if you want to call it swagger do you really have that
and I think the one thing is
we found out that that team was predominantly Halliburton because those other guys last year
I mean they didn't look like they could play I mean quite honestly they didn't look like they
could play some of them some of them right like Siakam was still Siakam Nembhard was pretty good
but Nembhard I mean we saw the ball and we saw the ball and we saw the ball and we saw the ball
and he was great in their playoff run two years ago and I'm like wow this guy's a mediocre at best
player for the time he played last year Neesmith I'm like oh I don't know now I do agree with you
I think Zubats is an upgrade over Miles Turner you know he'll give them some toughness he'll
give them the rebounding he's a great rebounder I don't know I look because are they better than
Detroit?
Who won 60 games last year are they better than Orlando if Orlando can be fully healthy
are they better than Atlanta?
Atlanta's got a chance to be I think people are sleeping on them a little bit
we'll get to them
yeah well and we've got a few teams to get to in these I mean to me one through 10 I don't know
and and I think Washington's an interesting case too so
um
um you know I just think the east is could be crazy I I'm with you I like
new york boston philly cleveland and then from there i'm not i'm not really sure uh of all the
teams you named in that first segment of i don't know if indiana is better than detroit orlando
atlanta i think indiana in terms of just can they win three off three playoff series for me they're
better than all those teams regular season i don't know where they're going to finish
same with philly kind of i just who knows what was your western conference uh confusion team
my western conference confusion team is the lakers i mean you know i think they're
their top three are good i mean if walker kessler stays healthy i think he reabs in
donchic offensively they're going to be really good but you know
like who else do you really trust on that team i mean who else do you feel
confident about
that okay we know what he's going to do on that team i i don't know i i don't have anybody i mean
i think colin sexton will give him good you know scoring off the bench i'm a grimes fan
um actually the guy i think is a really underrated guy that'll help him um and even
give him a chance to play bigger at times is mammo kelly's really i'm a big fan of his skill
package um but i don't know that any of those guys are guys you can just count on is is cameron
carr going to be ready to help i i just i don't know on them um so if you told me they can be in
the four teams after san antonio and oklahoma city i'd say yeah i could see that and if you
tell me no they're a play-in team i could see that too i i think that injuries are always going to be
a problem but they're not surviving injuries to reeves or uh or donch it's this year with the
roster they have no and that's where sexton would have to play a ton of minutes and he'll produce
but yeah the downgrade would be would be huge i i just for me i i think the lakers are going to be
a really good regular season team i don't know who i would trust outside of those top six to
like actually but one of those teams out of the top six like i don't trust portland or phoenix or
utah quite at that level uh my confusion team after watching preseason in the west uh and i'm
not like they're firmly in the top six for me i just i'm still trying to visualize how this
minnesota thing is all going to fit together with commitment my next question okay so we'll get
we'll get to them yeah okay question question two was name a team stan van gundy you are way higher
on than consensus or way lower on than consensus your answer
okay well but way higher on and i left them out of the teams we were talking about in the east
i'm really high on toronto i think that team's got a chance to be really really good i and you know
i thought what they were missing is a guy to give the ball to uh down the stretch in games and
if and obviously it's a big if throughout his career but if kawaii leonard is is healthy
they are going to be a good team and they're going to be a good team and they're going to be a good
to a team that plays really hard really well together extremely well coached i just think
you know i mean there's seven game series in the first round against cleveland um you know
and that's without kawaii leonard i i think scotty barnes is great i i think they've got
cameron you know uh boils is he's one of my favorite guys now
he's an undersized center they say six seven he's about six five but um you know i just i really
like that team and i think they can challenge anybody in the uh in the east and i think they're
getting overlooked um i have them fifth right now but i could see him going higher i i said the other
days like if we got to the end of the season and you told me no i would not pick this but you told
ronald is the number one seed in the east i like wouldn't be that surprised i just think
i think all these win totals are going to be compressed i i've said this a million times
people are tired of me saying it my barrier for them is like i just i kawaii has not been
healthy for a full playoff run for multiple playoff series since the bubble and so i don't
know how i can have faith in them to make the finals but i think they're going to be
an awesome regular season team i have a feeling you have telegraphed your answer for stan's
lower than consensus team so take it away with you on this i i'm not every you know everything
i read most people are saying oh minnesota's better i just don't see that at all i think
they're going to be fun to watch with that backcourt i think they'll put some points on the
board but they had significant losses okay they got ball but i mean julius randall who people want
that's two big losses up front and to me now they've become very dependent on rudy gobert whereas
they could go nas reed and especially when you needed to go a little smaller a little more
skilled they could go nas reed and randall now they're you're putting a lot on baron jay to to
really step up and have a good year or you're very dependent on rudy who you can still put him in very
situations at both ends of the floor i'm not i'm not sold on them i'm with you that they'll be in
the top six because i just don't know if there's anybody else but i think they're a pretty solid
sixth in in my opinion now could they catch the lakers yeah because as i said i see a lot of
variants there but other than that i mean i don't see them as as good as denver or houston and and
nobody's close to san antonio or oklahoma
city and you didn't mention di vincenzo who they didn't lose but it's going to be out for for half
most whatever of the season that's three most of the year yeah that's three of their top six guys
and now it's a big question mark you know and kuminga and i have him in if we get to the awards
things later he's gonna get a well i just think he's gonna get a big opportunity that he hasn't
had just because
chris fence just really doesn't have a lot of choices there like you know it's it's him or
trey lyles i mean or baron j at the four which they can't really afford because they need him
as the backup five i mean so i just i think he's gonna get the first true opportunity for a long
stretch not looking over his shoulder or anything else and you know we talked about teams with a
he's had flashes i thought you know he's played his best when his teams haven't been able to win
um unfortunately like he had a great playoff series in golden state when steph got hurt in
game one two years ago then he was fantastic but against minnesota to win against minnesota which
is probably a reason they were interested i mean as much as you
try to stay away from that bias it's tough for front offices to disregard what guys did against
them so i yeah minnesota to me is a team that i just don't see the other one for me in the east is
i'm not as high on miami as a lot of people are i just i think you know they did go out and add
some shooting around those guys but
the shooting that they added compromises them badly at the defensive end of the floor
even though he was great last year i'm not sold on davion mitchell as a full-time
starting point guard though on that team with yannis he doesn't have to carry a huge
shot creation role yannis is another guy i mean we talk about all these guys with their health
this guy's broken down badly over the last few years um
yeah i don't see them as one of the top teams in the east i'd actually be surprised
um not shocked but a little bit surprised if they were in the top six they've sort of been a
play-in staple for a long time here i mean i think people still look at miami um because of
some of their playoff runs which they've done a great job and because spo does such an incredible
job he's one of the absolute best in the league if not the best
this team's been mediocre in regular seasons for a long long time now this has not been
a really good team and i still i'm not a fan of their rosters i mean yeah of their roster i i i
like the addition of hardaway clay i don't know um i think wiggins is a little underrated but
i think bam is a little overrated particularly at the offensive end of the floor
um you know i i don't know i i just i'm not i'm not sold on them
all right first minnesota um this is like team referendum to me like there are two players on
this team in lamello and cominga that this season is going to render some degree of a verdict on
like lamello i think even in a downside scenario lamello is going to be in serious playoff games
for the first time in his career physical playoff games if he runs into the spurs or the thunder in
particular and we're going to see if he's up for that and cominga like this is it man if every
single year is like well this situation wasn't good for me this situation i was misused this
situation is this like at some point you're the bad roommate and you're the problem and like it's
either going to work or it's not um and you mentioned and i like the lineup by the way with
jayden mcdaniel's at the four and io in for cominga i think that'll be a fun lineup my
that'll be their finishing lineup would be my guess
you
is miami yannis has looked like incredible in the preseason on both ends of the floor
we're going to come back to miami um later i think uh here i'll just give you my quick
hitters for my own i'm going to answer my own question the team i i think i'm higher on than
consensus is houston i think houston's going to be awesome and blow away whatever their line is
and my lower than consensus i'll give you a couple i took in in the in the first time in the history
of the over under podcast i do with bill and house and in my own podcast i took the under on denver
at 48 and a half wins and that's a really low number for a yokich team um yokich is just like
a walking 50 win season and i just i worry about the combination of their depth taking a hit off
the bench i just can't have any faith in aaron gordon playing more than like half the season
and so that's another depth hit
did jamal murray just have the best season of his career and the healthiest season of his career and
can he replicate that i just feel like as great as yokich is and i had to take the under on a couple
top western conference teams to make the wins math workout so they were one of them and i i mean you
can try to sway me i think the hawks are fine i just don't really i just the team is confusing
to me and is a puzzle that quinn snyder is really going to have to solve in terms of these lineups
a really good defensive lineups but they're light on shooting and these lineups are a little light
on ball handling or whatever it is it just feels like everything every lever he pulls is a pretty
a pretty stark trade-off i think they're like a good team i think they're one of the 10 best
teams in the east i just don't i can't picture them like being a serious team in the east so
that's my those are my lower than teams i can i can see that and i agree with you on houston having
a chance to be really good defensive lineups and i think they're one of the ten best teams in the
east they're really really good i i think that uh fred van vliet coming back is huge like you know
we're in this era zach of positionless basketball but i don't care what anybody says you down the
stretch in games is where not having a point guard to me shows up and it showed up big for
them in that playoff series with the lakers i mean i'm trying to i've tried to block some of
that out of my memory it was so i think even if fred van vliet is a good team i think he's going
physically struggles to come back they just need a guy to organize them and to get them where they
need to be late in the game and then i think the other one that people really underplayed was
stephen adams i mean that was a huge loss for them in the stretch there's no one i mean they're a
very weird team i mean they're a top 10 offense but their offense was kevin
durant and go to the offensive glass kevin durant and miss and everyone else missed i mean it was
just uh it was a weird team but i thought jabari smith took a big jump late in the year i think
he's a really good player i think they've got a chance to be really good i just don't i don't see
anybody catching those top two teams i mean i guess denver i mean i guess houston might be the
best chance but i still don't see anybody catching those top two teams i mean i guess denver i mean i
still don't i still don't see it um denver i think i would denver is an interesting organization
because since they've won the championship it seems to me every year their goal has been how
much less talent can we put on our roster and still have and still have a chance to win 50 games
with nicola yokich i mean they're a they have an astounding lack of depth i mean you know losing
dayton watson to me was huge for them um but that starting lineup and obviously the health issue
with gordon that starting lineup can match up with anybody's starting lineup including to me
oklahoma city and san antonio that starting lineup is good it functions well together i think it would
be better with michael porter jr than with cam johnson but it's still a very good starting lineup
but that bench oh my god
i mean i just is demar de rosen their answer off the bench i mean it's you're putting a lot on him
look the starting five is awesome for it to be as good as it needs to be for this team to get to
like mid 50s wins and have a real chance like it is awesome on paper but you're counting on aaron
gordon being healthy when it matters a bounce back season from christian brown who couldn't make a shot
last year and cam johnson playing like he did in the last 25 games and not the first 55 and being
healthy it's like it is great on paper but it was mostly jokic and murray last year sort of lifting
everything else up um okay question number three you have patented your own segment on amazon prime
the stan crush it's kind of like your tommy points but it seems more holistic to me than
the tommy point just somebody does something in a game it reminds you how much you love that player
and they're your stan crush of the night i want you to predict who you think is the most is going
to have the most nights as the stan crush or the biggest stan crush of the season well so first of
all i would say it's guys that zach and i think you can understand this make me sit there courtside
and fall in love with the game like because of the things they do it's the stuff about the game
that excites me the guy who's going to probably get the most mentions just because we have so many
of their games is vj edge come i i love first of all i love that you have analyzed this by going
through your broadcast seriously we have a lot of philly games and i love vj edge come and i think
he's gonna be the guy in that group he's sort of the fifth guy notoriety wise in that group and
he's gonna be that do every
thing guy he's gonna defend he's gonna make great hustle plays great athletic plays um but the other
guys look you never you never forget your first is the same and and ugo gonzalez was my guy oh my
god bill is gonna be so happy and he puts so much into the game i love seeing him um you know we
love seeing him and he puts so much into the game i love seeing him um you know we
know alvarado can have those nights bruce clown's a guy i like um if we had more of their games i
think i've only got one of them of each of these teams guys that i would mention a lot would be tj
mcconnell and cameron murray boils i mean those guys colin murray boils i mean colin murray boils
yeah he's on my list yeah those guys would be guys that i just i fall in love with the way they play
um you know
i i think
mcconnell's a big part to me of that indiana group that we were talking about earlier like
the energy he provides coming in i i think they need that out of him but there's a lot of guys
and somebody's gonna emerge too you know somebody because i had no idea on ugo gonzalez you know i
didn't i you know i knew where he went in the draft and he was a young guy and i was like my
god this guy's all over all over the place and i was like oh my god this guy's all over the place
all over everywhere um so but i'll take vj edge come as the guy that i'll mention the most if the
spurs offered boston wembanyama for hugo gonzalez i think bill would have to sit with it for about
an hour before he signed off on the trade um i had i don't have a good pun in my name i i went
with lowe's loves i just couldn't think of anything else z is tough there's no z alliteration
that exists right so i have like i have like 20 nominees and you mentioned some of them uh
cmb is on there um i'm not gonna list all of them but um i i highlighted three guys as like
my finalists and you're not gonna believe me but vj edgecomb was one of them i just love that guy's
game and i think him being in the role that he's in he's gonna lean into everything that is is
already so good about his game and and make tons of winning plays like defense strips charges running
in transition
and everything else is a bonus and i think and and i think he is going to buy into that role
and not not complain
it and thrive in it. And just sort of like, everyone's worried about, Oh, VJ, you're too,
he's going to want the ball and want shots. And he's not going to get it. This guy is going to
like run and cut into 17 points a game, just mooching off the stars. And he's going to do
everything else. Well, my other guys were Pascal Siakam, maybe a little heady for this group.
I've just come to appreciate how hard that guy plays and how good he is at every part of the
game from every area of the floor on both ends of the floor. And then under the radar,
my listeners are going to laugh, Stan. I bet you don't have any of their games at all
this year. I am the number one. I am the president of the Dylan Cardwell fan club
of the Sacramento Kings third string center. Dylan Cardwell is neck and neck with Tijon
Salon and Charlotte as the most genuinely enthusiastic player in the NBA.
You would never know that the Kings are an absolute morass of incompetence. When Dylan
Cardwell gets in the game, he'll get a put back dunk and turn to the crowd and like pump up the
crowd, get them going. He's smiling all the time. It's like, Oh, Cardwell cuts the lead to 20.
And he's looks like the most excited player in the league. All right, let's take a break.
And we will, we will get back to Stan's big questions with Stan Van Gundy.
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Connecticut. I meant to ask you this, Dan, before we move on, you mentioned the Lakers before
your Orlando teams. It's they're,
they're really started to infiltrate the highest levels of basketball. You have JJ Redick is the
head coach of the Lakers. I was going to ask you, do you talk to him about coaching? Does he ever
call you for advice or do you stay away? Yeah, no, we, we talk on game nights when I'm there
doing a game, you know, and that's it. He he's done. I think an incredible job, obviously in
that playoff series last year, you know, without Luca, I mean, they did a, they did an incredible
job. Now they got,
a huge gift at the end of that one game in Houston, like one of the, one of the biggest
giveaways I've ever seen in a game, but nonetheless, I mean, they really hung in there. I'm really
anxious. I'm really eager to see what he does with that group this year, because I think he's got,
I mean, I said to somebody the other day, and I honestly believe this it's a, I know it's a big
statement, but I think because players keep getting better too. I don't care what some of the old guys
think. And I have great respect for him, but players like everything else continue to get
better and better. I think that Luca Donchic and Nikola Jokic are the two best well-rounded offensive
players in the history of the game. I mean, and I'll, I'd pay to watch Luca any night, love to see him play.
You know, but that defensive backcourt, oh my gosh. I mean, I, I think that Walker Kessler has a chance
if he stays healthy to be the defensive player of the year, because he's going to have so many
opportunities to protect the rim because the ball is going to be flying by Luca Donchic and Austin
Reeves every night. So Walker Kessler, good luck at the rim this year, but you're going to get,
if Walker Kessler can't overtake
Wimby to lead the league in block shots this year, it'll never happen because he's going to get about
50 opportunities a game. Wow. I meant to also mention Jameer Nelson, your point guard from
those teams, rising star in the Philadelphia front office. Listen, what, what Mike Gansey
and Jameer Nelson did in the off season this summer. I mean, come on. That was, that was
phenomenal. You know, the, the Jalen Brown trade, and then to get LeBron to come there,
you know, that was phenomenal. And then to get LeBron to come there, you know, that was phenomenal.
And yet I still look at that team and say, okay, well, it's still coming down to can Joel be
healthy and productive in the playoffs. If they're going to make a run.
Rashard Lewis, a very highly regarded player development coach for the Spurs. You're,
you're sort of semi-revolutionary stretch for Hayden Turkoglu, just the president of the
Turkish basketball Federation. Stan, you, you, your tutelage has, is now sprinkled into the
from that Orlando team, they're in positions of power all over the play.
I'm probably forgetting who knows what.
You know what?
I would actually turn that around, though, and you're absolutely right,
but I think it shows the level of intelligence I had around our team
to play well and the character and everything else.
I was just really fortunate to coach that group,
and it was a really, really smart group because those guys are perfect.
I remember I ran in to talk about Rashard Lewis.
One of his main projects is guys there in San Antonio's Carter Bryant.
He was on my Lowe's Love slash Stand Crush potential list.
Absolutely right, and I think he's a guy who could have,
you know, have a breakout year, and Rashard introduced him to me
in the preseason last year, and I said to him, I said,
you know what, just follow everything this guy does.
Rashard had the best preparation routine for practices and games
that I was ever around.
I was around a lot of them, but he was so disciplined
in everything he did to get himself ready, and all he cared about was winning.
I mean, he took on play.
And the four spot for us at a time where fours were fours, you know,
and he was this skinny guy and took it on.
We thought originally we'd put Turkoglu there.
It just wasn't a good fit, and yeah, I'm a big fan of all of those guys,
and I was very, very lucky or successful.
And apropos of maybe a little bit, you are opening the day with Diet Coke
in your home, so I'll just throw that out there
because the Diet Coke and that team, there's some lore behind.
If you know, you know.
Okay, question number four for Stan.
Your most interesting, important on-court trend, tactic, strategy,
just a big picture thing you're looking for in terms of how the game
is evolving league-wide.
Well, to me, it's the scoring and the offensive efficiency
is off the charts right now in the things that, you know,
the skill of the players, the skill.
that is on the floor and everything else and so i'm very eager to see how teams start to try to
you know defend these different pick and roll combinations like i think what we've gotten to
is the primary coverage in the league in the last few years has been okay we're going to switch
everything one through four and we're going to keep our five back in a drop the problem is now
we've got stretch fives that make the make the drop like carl anthony towns make that very very
hard to execute and we've got more teams going with big fours again and so those switches
are very difficult we've also got you know the
you know the
ghost screen revolution so you know perimeter perimeter small small pick and rolls and guys
running into them what do you do on those because very hard if you're thinking you're going to
switch you get caught you know with too much space and you're getting beat on slips and everything
else um i just think the league has allowed screeners to come up because of the switching
and instead of having to set the screen with your body
you're going to have to set the screen with your body and you're going to have to set the screen with your body
you can two-hand push the defensive player and then release and be behind the defense
creating four on three i think it's become nearly impossible to defend all these pick and rolls
but there's so many smart coaches in the league that i want to see how people start to adapt to
defending all these pick and rolls my guess is we're going to see less switching than what we've
seen now i think you know the
you know the
typical come up stop your body set a solid screen yeah we're going to
see switching a lot of those but all those on the run um you know i asked my brother the other day
because you know watching i'm saying when a perimeter guy when a smaller
is running to set the pick and roll and then slips out of ghost screens.
And I said, what's the percentage of time?
Would you say that that guy on the run stops and sets a screen?
You know, I mean, it's probably one or two percent of the time.
I was going to say, it's got to be less than 10 percent.
So why do you even bother switching those?
Because the guy slips out, you switch, you get confused.
It's too early.
I think we'll see a little bit less.
And to go with that, I think we're going to see a little bit, not a ton, but I think
we're going to see more zone, different coverages to try to cover up.
I've sort of come to where I really like if you could be zoned to take away the first
action a little bit and then get man to man after that, you'd have a chance.
Now, the other thing that goes with all.
The other thing that goes with switching is, to me, one of the biggest revolutions over
the last couple of years has been the offensive rebounding.
I mean, we talked about Houston earlier, but Zach, the last time I coached six years ago
in New Orleans, we were the only team that got over 30 percent on the offensive glass
that year.
And to be clear to listeners that rebounded 30 percent or more of your own misses.
Of course.
Their own misses.
And we barely were over 30 percent.
OK, now 16 teams last year, over 30 percent.
Another three if you round it up, because I think 19 was like twenty nine point six
percent.
Well, I think, yeah, a lot of it's just been an emphasis.
But I think another thing is the switching has all the switching has put you in very
precarious situations on the glass.
Small guys boxing out bigger guys or not boxing them out.
I mean, I don't know that we see a lot of a lot of boxing out.
It's one of the things I really like about San Antonio.
I think they really take that.
Yeah, they've got Wimby, but they really take the defensive glass seriously.
I think Mitch has done a fabulous job there.
But anyway, I just think the whole pick and roll game is so good.
Now, how are you guarding it?
And not I think it's not just how you relate to the first shot, but the entire possession.
And so that's what that's what I'm looking forward to.
And then on the offensive end, I really like seeing how people handle the switching, you
know, whether it's just straight isolation.
The last team I've seen who really tried to exploit it inside.
I thought on a great level was when Monty Williams was coaching in Phoenix.
I thought they they did a tremendous job.
Chris Paul, you know, at that point in his career, wasn't the blow by guy that he had
been earlier.
So he didn't want to isolate the switch.
He wanted to get the ball inside the DeAndre Aiton, who's a much maligned guy.
But at that time, anyway, did a fabulous job of sealing people down low.
And their first option was to go inside with the ball.
And so I think that's something that we're going to continue to look at.
I do see people starting to do more of that.
I think two, even two years ago, it was we're going to attack the big on the perimeter.
And now I see people going inside a little bit more.
So that whole pick and roll switching, all of that is a big one for me.
This is why the post-up will never die, no matter how, quote, inefficient it gets.
The further you get in the playoffs, the fewer options you have and the more you have to lean on.
What you have, I would throw the 2024 Celtics in there, not with their bigs, but Tatum and Brown
using white as screeners and Pritchard is screeners to try to get small guys and then
kind of go into work from the nail, not quite a traditional post-up, but the same, same
principle, by the way, trivia question for you mentioned offensive rebounding and the
30% threshold.
What do you think Houston's offensive rebounding rate was when Steven Adams was on the court
last year?
I mean, it was in, it had to be in the mid to high forties, 46%.
That's like not even a real stat.
It's like half, you basically rebound half your misses with this one guy.
And sometimes, sometimes he's getting it.
And sometimes he's just taking up three guys who are trying to box him out.
And so no one else is there.
And then you have teams like the Celtics who have really been aggressive with like the
corner crash Shireman, like flying in from the corners, your guy, who go flying in from
the corner.
Okay.
Here, here were some of mine, my tactics.
You ready?
Yeah.
Is anyone.
Gonna, you mentioned pick and roll and all that we've seen Memphis in past years, not
last year, Miami last year, and to a lesser degree, Utah last year, kind of de-emphasize
the pick and roll in favor of different kinds of actions.
Will any team do that?
You mentioned zones.
I think, although they don't quite have the personnel to do it, more teams are going to
do the, the one man zone with their center thing that I really think Missoula and email
Doka and Boston.
Kind of really started to popularize when B does it all the time.
Walker Kessler has been doing it in the preseason.
Klingon does it sometimes our, our team's going to play like even faster.
Like some of these teams are flying in the preseason.
We see that every year, but pace was, was pretty high last year.
And a bunch of team like Miami ran all the time.
I think we've got a few teams that are really testing kind of the limits of how powerful
straight up depth can be in the regular season.
Like Memphis is 15 guys, deep, I think depth Rick Carlisle brought it up two years ago,
right?
When they went to the finals.
I mean, Rick brought up that it's different.
Now you can't just, his thing, he came right out and said, he said, you just can't be the
team with three stars anymore.
Like you have to build out a full roster.
I think with injuries.
And as you brought up the pace of the game, you want to look at teams, particularly in
the regular season, you got to look at teams that are 10 or 12 deep.
I mean, these teams are going to try to play with, you know, like you mentioned Denver
with short benches, it's going to be tough in today's day and age.
So I think that is a huge one.
Well, I, I think Memphis Charlotte and even Milwaukee, who's kind of a sad sack team this
year in terms of odds and all that, they just have a lot of guys, all three of those teams,
but probably not like a top 30 or 40 guy.
And so I think they are.
We're testing like is depth really that powerful without like a fulcrum to that level now, maybe
cam boozer emerges as a guy that's that good or conca nipple or Brandon Miller makes a
leap.
We'll see.
And the other one, you know, this is related to Wemby specifically, but also to any center
like Kessler and Klingon or time Lord would do this in Boston who plays that one man zone.
I think anybody who watched the finals had to come away with that thinking it's terrifying.
He's huge.
We're going to lose a lot of these battles.
We have to go at Wim Ben Yama more aggressively than we have in the past.
Like the Knicks just made a point of we're putting him in as many actions as we can.
And when he's on the baseline, we're driving at him and, and an OB, I thought was particularly
just like, I'm going at them.
I'm going to see what happens.
And I think that's the way you have to approach it with him and you got to just eat.
Like he's going to humiliate us six or seven times at the basket, but we've just got to
engage him more.
And go at him physically.
So those are, and the other one, the big one, it's not an encore thing.
I think you're a fan of it.
We've talked about it before.
I think the new tanking rules are going to just completely change how every team approaches
the season.
And it's going to be so much better and so much more competitive than I do.
I mean, just totally agree with that.
And that's also why, and you said it earlier.
The wind totals are going to be compressed because those games, even against the bottom
teams.
They're not going to be just straight giveaways.
I mean, you're going to have to play.
And last year, like it got bad.
I mean, I thought Utah in particular, I thought was just making a full force of things by
playing three quarters and then sitting there better players down in the fourth.
I applaud the league for being really proactive in that personally, I would have just eliminated
the draft.
I think that would have been a simpler way to go, but, but I like it.
I like what they've done.
I agree with you.
And I think it's going to be a major boon.
If you're trying to walk that line of finishing with the fourth worst record, I mean, that
that's a hard, that's a hard thing to do.
Yeah.
So there are a couple of interesting wrinkles, the teams that the bad teams that don't control
their own pick.
I think Brooklyn and Milwaukee would be the best example they it'll be interesting to
see how they behave because they really have no incentive to avoid the relegation zone.
They don't get their pick anyway.
They actually have a slight incentive to be in the relegation zone because they want their
pick to not be the number one pick or to not be a top five pick because of the other rules
that you can't have those picks in consecutive seasons or whatever the specific rules are.
There's some people that are worried about like, well, will a team kind of tank out of
the play in to be in the, in the three ball zone or not chase the play in because they're
in the three ball zone actually don't worry about that.
the ninth and 10 seeds get two balls. That's pretty good.
And I look to your point, like it's, it's going to be hard to just game the system
with more than 10 games left in the season to be like, all right, we're not going to chase the
play in, but we're also safe from the relegation zone. So let's just sort of tank the rest of the
game. That's going to be hard to be in there. So anyway, those are my, those are my trends.
All right. Last question before we make some predictions, I said, pick one swing factor
that really matters in the championship picture or like the top of the league picture. And I said,
it could be a weak spot on a contending team. Do they improve it? It could be a lineup,
like a rotation decision of like this pairing has to work or this trio has to work or whatever.
What was your pick for that? Well, to me, it's, it's Wimby and how people
combat Wimby. I thought New York, you know, you made a point about how they attacked him
at the,
when he was on defense, but I also, they beat the hell out of him. If you go back and watch
every time he rolled, I mean, I don't care if it was Jalen Brunson, the smallest guy.
I mean, they hit the hell out of him going down. He absorbed blow after blow. And I think what we
saw. And so I would say from his standpoint, because we're only, we're not talking about,
we know they're going to be really good. We're talking about affecting the title picture to me,
has he gained physical stamina. And a lot of that has to do with strength. What we saw in the New
York games, he was very, very effective early in those games. And they wore him down. I thought
with their physicality. Now they had two bigs to throw at him. So he was always out against a big
body too. Not everybody has that, but can you wear him down? And can he withstand that? Because to
me, if he, what also happens is they beat the hell out of him. And over the course of the game,
then what he does is drift to the perimeter. And I know he can make a three, but I know as an
opposing coach, anytime I have that guy standing behind the three point line, I'm thanking the
stars above for that. And he's seven foot four. Like to me, I don't like their guards can get in
the paint all the time. I don't like that. I don't like that. I don't like that. I don't like
that. I don't like that. I don't like that. I don't like that. I don't like that. I don't like that.
When they have the ball, I want Wimby down on that baseline in the dunker spot, because
like everybody thinks five out gives you better spacing to drive. I'm not so sure,
particularly with a guy like him, but even with a Walker Kessler, somebody like that,
if you take one step to start to help off a Wimby, they just throw the ball to the rim and he dunks
it. So your big has to stay home. If he's behind the three point line, your big doesn't. I mean,
I wouldn't care. Like when they can shoot 12 threes a game against me. And if he makes eight
of them, I lose and I go home, but I'll take my chances with that. I can help if I got to be
careful on helping off a Wimby. If he's down in that dunker spot, he gets less willing to play,
in my opinion, down there as the game goes on, if you beat on him. And so
to me, if he does that, that team becomes virtually unbeatable. But if he can't withstand
that, then at least a couple of teams have a chance to compete with them. So I have plenty
of others, but I thought that was, that's the biggest one, because I think that guy's the most
dominant guy in the league right now. If we took, if we're talking both ends of the floor,
um, I think he's the guy. And so I think how,
he plays and how you play against him determines the championship.
I voted him. I just said, screw it. And voted him number one in our preseason ringer 100,
even though the season hasn't started yet. And, uh, if we go to a predict an MVP award, I go,
I'm not so sure he shouldn't have gotten it last year. And I didn't vote for him as number one
last year. I'll admit that, but I've sort of doubted that as I've gone, you went, you went
Yoko Trent. I did go Yoko.
I went Yoko, then SGA. And if I'm thinking right, then Wimby, but I sort of regretted it afterwards
because I think if you take both ends of the floor, I just, I'm not sure it's really that
close to be honest right now. Here were my, I'll go rapid fire through my candidate,
my non-Wimby candidates for the swing factor thing. Um, the Giannis Bam fit and, uh, on offense,
and where the heat's offense comes from when Giannis is on the bench. That's one. Um,
you mentioned New York's two bigs against, uh, when Benyama New York's backup center position,
uh, is Andre drumming the answer. And if not, who is, and how much has that hurt them?
We mentioned zoo already. I think the zoo fit in Indiana is a big one. Um, can, can Cleveland
land on the right mix of lineups is a fascinating one to me because
the numbers from Mobley and Allen together are always off the charts. And then they get
to the playoffs and their faith in that lineup playing like 25 minutes a game starts to wobble
because of the spacing. And so then you have throw Tyson in throw Maryland, throw Watson
in more. Do they land? Cause I think Cleveland, Cleveland has the ingredients of a team that
can make the finals. I just think it's going to take them a season to figure out what ingredient
ingredients and what doses, um, Chet Holmgren as the only big man.
On the floor. Is that him on my list? Yeah. Is that just dead on arrival? Is that not even the
best? Should they just not play that at all? Cause Hartenstein and Jalen Williams and a die
Mara are so good. They shouldn't play it against women. I know that dominates Chet Holmgren. I
think he's in his head. Me too. Uh, and the last one, and it's newsy cause he signed a contract
extension. Uh, that's effectively a one and a half year contract extension kind of is like,
is the Peyton Pritchard jailing,
Jalen Brunson esque leap, a real possibility, or is that, I mean, Jalen Brunson is now an all-time
legend finals MVP. One of the top six or seven players in the league. I that's a little aggressive,
but is there a 22, a game on efficient shooting six assists player in here? Because that's what
Boston is really betting on. I thought that extension was like completely fine. It's fair
for Peyton Pritchard. I'm actually, I was a little surprised that he took it. Cause there was a cap
but it locks in a lot of money for him. Then they have a, a funky mutual option on it for the second
year. But that's, that's it. Cause I think Boston is really good. And I think they would probably
be my pick to be the number one seed in the East after the regular season in terms of playoff
equity. I think they need him to make a leap and they're, they're really betting on it. So those
were my, some of my, uh, swing factors. If any of those strike your fancy.
No, those are, I think those are all really good. I think, uh, I think a big one with Cleveland is
the, uh, Peyton Watson fit. I mean, Peyton Watson had an incredible year last year, um, fit really
well in their system is Peyton Watson, you know, part of the finishing lineup in, uh, in Cleveland.
Um, you know, can he have a great year? I don't know Cleveland. I just, I think they're good.
And I just don't get excited about them as a title contender. I just think something doesn't work
there at the biggest times of the year. I'm just not a believer in, in Cleveland. I think there
will be a good regular season team. Um, I do think it's interesting that with all of the things with
Halliburton coming back with all the moves Philly made, um, Detroit was the number one team in the
East last year. We've not even really talked about them. We're going to talk about them now.
A lot of people are like that though. And the other team, I think people are really overlooking
is Orlando. I mean, the problem with Orlando has been, they haven't been healthy. Like they were
taking Detroit out in the first round last year. Everybody talks about that collapse in game six
and it was bad. Okay. It was bad, but I get that. But if Franz Wagner doesn't go down,
they were going to win that series. I mean, that is a good basketball team and now they can't shoot.
So they're, you know, there's certainly weaknesses there, but when they've been able to stay healthy,
which is almost never, that's a, that's a pretty good basketball team. And even though they've been
hurt a lot, I just, I don't see, it's not the same stuff over and over, you know, injury wise.
So I think they've got a chance to do that. Those two teams, and I think have been really
overlooked in the East in most of the prediction stuff that I read.
I just can't buy Orlando as a, they can win three off playoff, three playoff series team,
but I agree there. Oh, no, no, I don't either. But I think they can win a playoff series or two,
depending on matchups. I honestly thought two years ago that they were the team that really
had a handle on guarding Boston with all the, because they didn't, you know, they,
they switched to literally everything and they,
they really didn't help. They took away their driving kicks and said, go ahead,
finish over the top of us, drive the ball and.
finish on us because Boston doesn't really want to score in the paint and they don't get to the
free throw line much and you're going to have to play us one-on-one and they created a lot of
problems for them and they they their same switching scheme took Jalen Duren completely
out of that series and their size yeah Jalen Duren I think you know it's interesting that
whole playoff series and I think it's one of the reasons people doubt Detroit but they're going to
have a great regular season again because they play so damn hard totally agree on the Pistons
and in fact one of the swing factors I forgot to mention was and they both involve the Thompson
twins you you hit it when you talked about five out spacing in a lot of cases not being the cure
all that everybody thinks it is and maybe not even being the best alignment for teams now you
mentioned Wemby Wemby's a complete outlier unicorn but I do think as someone who likes stylistic
diversity and thinks there is something to what you're saying
it is possible to get pretty far with maybe not five outspacing um how do how do the Rockets
navigate I'm in Thompson and Alper and Shen Goon as core players who don't shoot and how do the
Pistons navigate a star Thompson and Jalen Duren as core players who don't shoot and part of it is
those guys getting better as shooters Shen Goon flirted with being a three-point shooter last
year and fell away Duren took a three last night in Minnesota part of it is those guys
taking a little bit more ball handling or screening responsibilities so they're on the ball very
illustrative last night in Minnesota preseason game the Pistons like first six possessions were
all a star Thompson and Jalen Duren doing stuff on the ball and Cade kind of just watching them
work Duren looks in wildly good shape and just blew by Gobert on an isolation earlier in the
game and so I just thought that was that was interesting um all right let's do some quick
awards picks MVP I think we both have women Yama
Wimby here uh defensive player of the year I have Wemba Yama and then I have in my if Wemba Yama
doesn't make 65 games category I have Scotty Barnes well Scotty Barnes a good pick as Scotty
Barnes a guy I love he could be in the uh my stand crush stuff too he just does a little bit
of everything I think he's a very even underrated player as I said I think Walker Kessler has a
chance and I said it sort of jokingly but I mean it like he's going to basically have to play that
defense on his own man those guards are going to get blown by and then I think and you just
mentioned them I think the Thompson twins are always going to be in the discussion there to me
they're the two best perimeter defenders in the league um and which one's better I don't know I
went back and forth I was saying a min all year and then I watched the SAR and the playoffs and
I'm like I don't know a SAR might even be a better defender than his than his brother so
I think they're always in the take but Wimby again
would be the the the favorite did you ever play uh the legend of Zelda for Nintendo
Stan probably not I'm guessing there was the hardest villain in that game there was a level
where there are these like wizards who move so fast around the board that they like teleport
basically like they're far away and then they're next to you and they're harming you with their
magic that's how a SAR Thompson moves he's just like it's I don't even know how he gets from one
place to another he's like he I get PTSD
from not being able to beat those wizards in Zelda when I watch a SAR Thompson teleport
around the court uh six man of the year my pick this could end up being a foolish pick because
he might not be eligible was Dylan Harper and my backup was AJ Mitchell obviously Dylan Harper who
knows if he starts too many games but those are my top two I think AJ Mitchell will end up starting
I have Dylan Harper as my number one and my number two I have Colin Murray Boyle
love it he maybe he ends up starting too by the way there's a universal I don't think so though I
think they'll start hurdle early in the game against bigger guys and and then when they up
tempo maybe a little bit more with shed and guys like that then he he comes into play but you could
be right yeah I agree team team coaches tend to default to like let's just start big and like
feel the game out from their uh coach of the year I have Darko Ryakovich we have the same one
that's incredible look I thought he did a fabulous job last year and I think he's got more options
now and I think people don't always tie that together I mean uh look just like players have
gotten better in this league the coaching is phenomenal I mean it's really hard for me and
I'm gonna coach I'm a coach supporter anyway so I understand that but you look around I mean I I just
everybody is really
really good but he was tremendous and that would be my guess plus I think as I said
it usually goes to a guy whose team sort of beats the preseason predictions like it's not going to
go to Mitch Johnson or Mark Dagnall now it's not going to them it can't go to Mike Brown now you
know I mean you won the championship last year it's not going to go to Joe Missoula anymore even
though he would have been a great you know so it's going to be a team's going to have to
exceed expectations and to me I think Darko's the the the best bet well the other one and I know
you're a little lower on them than consensus but Spoh is like the Tim Duncan defensive player of
the year version of coach of the year where it's like if we get to the end of his career and he's
never won it everyone's going to be like how did this happen where did we go wrong and given how
they remade their team some of the depth issues ball handling issues you mentioned if we get to
the end of the season and the heat are not in the play and they're in the top of the season
top four there and as you said the play-in has been like the southeast division invitational since
it since it was birth I think there will be a groundswell of like okay it's time to give this
guy his due oh well listen I mean he's he's been given his due in a lot of ways like now he's the
national team coach and I think true he was voted as one of the top 15 coaches of all time which he
more than deserved um I think if you went who are the most you know the best coaches most
polished coaches anyway in the game right now it would come down to he and Steve Kerr um in terms of
what they've done so I think we've given him his due but you're right I think that those guys in
terms of a one year thing because you just assume Miami's going to be well coached and you know and
perform well during the year so um Spose had to figure it out in the career in his career with
a lot of different types of teams um you know and I think it's a it's a it's a it's a it's a
people forget about pretty good success he had before LeBron and Chris Bosh came there where it
was Jermaine O'Neal and and guys like that I mean he's I I think he does so many things so well but
one of the things he does is just finding the ways to maximize the talent that he has he's not tied
to a system or anything else he's going to look at his roster and how do I maximize the
these guys individually and as a group and I don't think anybody does that better than he does
rookie of the year I have Cam Boozer so do I because I think that we're I can't believe we're
agreeing on all this it's not even fun but um Cam Boozer to me is going to get first of all I think
he's in a system that is perfect for him and I think he's going to get the best opportunity um
you know I I think he's going to get the best opportunity um you know I I think he's going to
think that Darren Peterson will get a great opportunity AJ DeBonse I think is great but
Trey Young is such a ball dominant guy that I don't know that he'll get his chance to shine
um I'm not totally sold on Darren Peterson yeah I'll go with Cam Boozer I I think he's the most
ready-made right now NBA player but we'll see and Caleb Wilson is spectacular but will be on a bad
team and there will be some efficiency hiccups there uh most improved player okay well I think
we've mentioned both of them I I have a two-man race myself this one's hard to tell because
you know it's gonna be you never know somebody who comes out of the blue that's how most improved
goes but I'm looking at Carter Bryant and I'm looking at Kuminga because and I don't trust
Kuminga even in the least but I think
he's gonna get a great opportunity and if he could average 15 points a game on that team I
think people are gonna are gonna take notice and he's gonna get the opportunity to do that he's
gonna get the opportunity to play through mistakes what I and you mentioned this earlier I think that
team's fascinating in a lot of ways but Kuminga and LaMelo Ball both have ability obviously LaMelo's
a lot more than Kuminga but can they can they win can they help a team win at the you know at the
highest level I'm not sure of that with either guy but I think Kuminga gets an opportunity who'd you
have you're gonna like my pick I went Walker Kessler uh I just think speaking of opportunity
um I think he's gonna get all the opportunity he wants and if we got to the end of the season it's
like whoa Walker Kessler put up 18 and 12 and three assists a game and he's gonna get all the
and second in the league
blocks and good rim protection stats i think there could be a case for him no question he's gonna
rebound and he's gonna block shots he's gonna really and he might really pass he can really
pass he he may well lead the league in offensive rebounds in total offensive because all those
pick and roll that you know he'll tip in his own shots but any layup or floater that reeves
and don't you miss he's going to be right there well and you know i mean one of the best ways to
get offensive rebounds is you play with guys who drive the ball and they draw help and then there's
no body on you and that's why another reason i want i think a big thing for that in the whole
championship race is let's watch and see if wimby's willing to be around the basket more
because it's indefensible it's indefensible when he's at the basket and those three guards
can get in the paint at will against anybody harper and castle are going to be living in the paint and
if
somebody comes to help just get the ball up on the rim you don't need to try to make a difficult
pass just get it up on the rim don't get it blocked and wimby you'll clean it up so i think
that'll be really interesting speaking of the championship picture last one have you made a
finals prediction yet i have not i i'm still i'm still wavering on on all fronts i'm going to take
it to the wire i'll make my prediction next week but do you have a finals and or champion prediction
yet if not that's fine i have one and it'll certainly be wrong you know it is every year
but i'm going to go back with the same two teams in the finals san antonio and new york and reverse
the result san antonio spurs over new york knicks stan van gundy's official finals prediction you
heard it here on the zach low show stan you are the best we can see you on amazon prime are you
allowed to say when your first game is going to be it's going to be you and i in great chemistry
as always you guys poke fun at each other it's delightful uh when's the first game october the
23rd we have new york at boston
so um and then the following week on the 30th we have new york at philadelphia so baby amazon prime
in the east we've got a lot of new york a lot of philadelphia and a good deal of uh of boston so
it'll be a lot of fun and we i'm using we i'm a bit player but i'll say we we have the eastern
conference finals this year which is a huge deal for amazon prime and it's going to be awesome
you guys all knocked it out of the park last year stan van gundy enjoy the last remaining days of the
we're about to get very busy thank you for your incomparable insight on the zach low show yeah
thanks zach it's always good to this episode is brought to you by michelob ultra tip office here
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look who it is dan wojcicki of the athletic he covers the lakers sometimes the clippers are what
remains of them but most of them are the lakers and the lakers are the lakers and the lakers are the
first to lead the lakers uh dan how are you doing zach um it's so good to be here with one of my
favorite basketball writers of the last two weeks oh stop stop it now uh are you i i believe we have
discussed that you are a white socks fan correct i am it's been a white socks chicago bears fan
it's been a week well i mean wasn't this season like a glorious surprise after all these hundred
lost seasons it was the best i so my wife is a white socks fan too um
and we probably as a family watch somewhere like between 80 and 90 baseball games this year just
because of like the time of day it's on in california um you just kind of like throw it on
at four o'clock and uh yeah we love this team like love love this team um their second baseman's from
manhattan beach i may be plotting with some other white socks people perhaps like you know maybe
this guy wants to go to a laker game every once in a while and like come hang out with the with
the writers chase chase uh what is what is this
my draws no it's so funny you bring him up because i have a bunch of baseball text threads and what
and one of them it was remarked that if you drew up an american baseball player like it just the
absolute perfect american stereotypical american looking baseball player he was the he was the
nominee he just looks like he just looks exactly like i would picture an american baseball player
so um in september um the white socks um you know like a lot of other teams were um
you know honoring their latino players and it's like miguel vargas is there you know also amazing
season for miguel vargas and then like in slide three is chase my droth holding the mexican flag
and people are like wait what like what what just happened and his grandfather turns out it was
mexican and he's a quarter mexican and and after um he had a tremendous end of the season and like
the joke among white socks fan was like after he came out as mexican you know like his his batting
average spike to like 370 you know he's a gold glove finalist um so yeah it's uh it was a special
team it was it was it's one of those things and and we should to tie this in the lakers like i'm
in this white socks like the group is better than the individual type of like mindset and like when
you watch things like you know the the 30 minute luca slovenia documentary and you just like you
see them rowing and you see them talking shit to each other
and stuff like that you're like okay like that's what a real team looks like and if you're a real
team um maybe you have a chance to be a little better than your projections you know anything
you say like that dan for the next six months is going to be incorrectly interpreted as a slight
shot at lebron just just know just know that like anything yes any the lakers the lakers coaches
have already realized that anything good they say about the team or the chemistry is immediately
going to be taken by the crazy version of the internet as a shot at lebron no matter what
so i'm on year three of this or i'm sorry this is the third wave of this as a lakers writer when
the lakers hired darvin ham and fired frank vogel and they talked about darvin's ability to like
relate to stars and stuff like that as a positive for why they hired darvin a lot of people were
like oh man like they shouldn't like frank won a title here like you can't like say something so
bad on him on the way out and then when they hired jj and it was about how organized jj's practices
were it was like you know like i i know people like around darvin got in their feels a little
bit about like sort of like whoa whoa whoa like you know we just won you know 100 games over two
years like and it is i'm so glad you mentioned this because i caught this on media day like i
wrote a story on media day that was basically like boy this was boring and people around the
lakers were sort of relieved at how boring here comes the clutch mom
and um and it was like interpreted as like a negative thing like towards lebron and like the
reality is is just like lebron is a lot he brings a lot of attention um he brings a lot of dissection
of your team and you know as we talk about this laker team today i mean i don't want to say like
they're boring i don't think it's a boring basketball team i think it's gonna be a fun
basketball team um but like the
the only real question that like i've been trying to get at through training camp is basically like
are they good enough you know like like there are no like is there a surprise retirement looming
is there you know are the superstar dynamics um a risk to get in the way of this team's ability
to reach its potential are there overlapping skill sets that are like this team was like very
intentionally put together in a very specific way and so now like all it's left to see is if it was
like good enough if they
if it's the right guys in the right roles that's like it's pretty simple and the most important
new guy made his pre-season debut uh the other night walker kessler luca did not play so he did
not see their pick and roll combination on the floor yet but austin reeves did uh kessler looked
very good i think he's gonna have a huge year for them he is my pick for most improved player
uh he will have a ton on his plate defensively cleaning up a lot of messes for a team that i
believe ranked second worst in opponent field goal percentage at the rim he's the exact kind
of player they need
i'm very interested in how jj reddick who i think he and his staff among the most creative
defensive coaching staffs in the league are going to mix up and they already did in the brief
glimpse we saw of Kessler sometimes in a drop sometimes in a one-man zone on the baseline like
Wemby style I think he's showing the ability to come up to the level of the screen even switch a
little bit so we'll see a little everything but you said the words you said the word boring
and you said the phrase are they good enough and I I guess I kind of agree with both those things
like and the are they good enough question is like are they good enough for what like I think
they're clearly not good enough to beat healthy San Antonio or Oklahoma City in a playoff series
and I think the existential question about this team is how can they ever get good enough to beat
those teams in a playoff series that's it I think the Lakers are very very good I hit the over hard
on the bill house over unders podcast as I did last year when I was the only one guys yeah you
guys went over I guess we did I don't even remember I think you're going to win a lot of
regular season games they're going to be very difficult to stop offensively
we all understand that this is a team built around Lucas spread pick and roll read secondary
ball handler shooting all over the place defensive issues on the perimeter I just like I I wanted
to dive deep dive on them because they they're the Lakers they're the Lakers but I also like
as as lock I just think they're locked into something from three to six on the very low end
and a second round loss at best and I don't really know what else to say can you tell me
what else to say okay so I think um this is fun I was hoping we'd get to play like a little bit
of a like a you know a Zach Lowe game of sorts like maybe we could rank like the horrible like
Nike sweatshirts and stuff like that now I got I have a take on that the specter ones that look
like kind of straight dripping spray paint I you've seen them up close by now right did they
look like they weigh 10,000 pounds well I can't so heavy I can't speak to the weight or the
aesthetics of the weight but I I will say when I went to the Lakers I was like oh my god I can't
in for my NBA annual show and tell art meeting a couple weeks ago seeing them up close they're
much better up close because you can kind of see like the negative patterns in in the shirts like
you can see the oh that's a shamrock rendered in like negative space on the Celtics one or that's a
I can't remember what the Pistons one is there's been in the locker room I can share a little
reporting on this there's been some concerns about the fit um like you know they're like crop tops
some guys have said um the pants are huge the the tops are short okay um great they have there
has been sort of a concession that like they are going to look terrific in photographs 20 years
from now like that they they what they lack in functionality um again very heavy it's like a very
heavy material um it will be made up for in aesthetics now I want to buy one and just can I
can I make a goofy Halloween costume out of it if it's a crop
I told Jaden Hardy he looked like a boxer trying to make weight the other day at it like he looked
like he just went for like like it's the type of sweatshirt you wear if you wanted to like sweat
off like another two pounds on a jog I think the league and uh and Nike are very aware of the
reception that these have gotten anyway so you were hoping and so yeah the Lakers and one game
we could play and I think like just it's a game I know that I've been playing conversations with
the scouts stuff like that is like who is gonna rate how like where is the ceiling raising on
this team right like who are the people what are the things that can happen that can vault this
team from competitive second round exit to something more right and uh you do a lot of
straining when you try to play this game so we're immediately have to disqualify the top three guys
because Luca is what he is Reeves is what he is and I'm very confident like I think Kessler's gonna
be a big year so I've already baked that into my so yeah so Luca's an MVP candidate Reeves makes an
all-star team Walker Kessler shoots 70 from the field averages you know some absurd double-double
because he's just gonna like feast at the rim and block shots and and be a sort of one-man defense
so we have to assume all the all three of those things happen like where like the other pockets
where like this maybe goes way better than we expect and a lot of it is tied to guys having
their best possible seasons um that they've ever had and I think that's what we're gonna see and I
think that's what we're gonna see in the next couple of years is that we're gonna see a lot of
guys that are gonna be able to play better than they ever had which is risky right like they're
like the Lakers are like yeah this is the best Quinton Grimes that will ever exist is right now
um I don't mind that bet I like Quinton Grimes I think he's gonna be I assume he is penciled in as
the fourth starter I think so I still have no idea who the fifth starter is I don't know if you do but
like and and you know their their first preseason game uh but he's been dealing with the toe injury
since and um we haven't seen him so you know Jake Laravia's had a really good preseason um the shot
has reworked it does not look particularly aesthetically pleasing um but it's functional
and it's been going in and it's quick and he's shooting it confidently uh you know he had a a
pretty good season last year it's kind of like a you know just like let me do some like grimy stuff
and and you know um defense rebounding and and stuff like that and they got a lot of crap for
the Dorian Finney Smith Jake Laravia exchange I said before the season I bet the Lakers come out
ahead in that and they did by so much that I can't even believe it Dorian Finney Smith I think just
got traded like seven times in a month it felt like yeah yeah and Jake you know Jake played all
82 games last year in the regular season um so a lot of durability a lot of consistency from
him in terms of like availability and effort and stuff like that so I think he he has a chance
um the first ceiling raiser that I want to mention is Sandro mamu kalashvili right first of all first
of all nailed it not easy absolutely nailed it like that was you could be on the Lakers broadcast
tomorrow and you could say not just I'm I stick with mom I've had some practice I've had some
practice on this um can you say it again mamu kalashvili I put a T in there sometimes like
mamu kettish really and that's just not there so yeah it's like the mamu mamu
kalashvili like it's like boom boom boom is like the way to get there for me but mamu we'll just
henceforth mamu um did you watch the the first half of the Lakers Warriors game with Kester
playing I assume I did I did yeah um when this offense works at its best it is going to create
um wild closeouts if they shoot well enough to force defenses to close out to shooters
where they are much better than they were last year is going to be their ability to dynamically
attack closeouts um Rui Hachimura developed into like one of like the premier catch and shoot um
players in the NBA uh a terrific like ball fake take one dribble and shoot a 19-footer player too
right like just a very good jump shooter um the Lakers like though like he didn't really wasn't
like I put it on the floor three times and and and like you know pass
him like the next Cutter type of guy keep the machine moving yeah like mamu is like secondary
um attack the closeout and it's like oh now he's like your third playmaker on the court like a
fantastic passer and a really I think exciting decision maker off the dribble who um you know
in creating advantages and that's like what a Luca often should do that's what a Reeves offense should
do particularly when you have um a gravitational roller is you're going to create a different kind of
advantages I think the same is true for Quinton Grimes beyond Marcus farm you know I mean what
you lose certainly in kind of ball pressure defense I think you gain in like a more dynamic offensive
decision maker against a closeout um Colin sex is not a terrific passer but like Colin Sexton is a
guy who absolutely can be a three level score and you know again and advantages and I think you know
we're talking a lot about offense with these three particular players and then the idea is that the
offense for you Jake laravia Zyre Williams Matisse libel all capable shooters you know Zyre Williams
everything I've heard internally is like he has shot the absolute leather off the ball
um he shot it really well in in that opener again um interestingly when he started they put him on
Darius a cuff it wasn't anyone else it wasn't Grimes it wasn't um Bible um who both started
in that Warriors game five will guarded Curry and so we're getting into the issue of like you
know if what my thing with the Lakers if they go one for two with thighball and Zyre Williams being
like a good rotation player who makes enough threes that's a hit for them and then you get to
like well who is that guy guarding and night to night like what is the safest place to put Luca
and Reeves and where is that but like you've seen them at the point of attack you're gonna see him
on big wings but if they go one for two like two for two I think it's just too much to ask and
they'll they'll be oscillations but if one of those guys at all times
playing well 37 from three yeah exactly that's a win for them I think it nudges up their ceiling
like a win like I don't think it's like now now we're in a in big time territory but it's it's
meaningful um I I think though like the dinosaur the Dynacism maybe I can say dynamism dynamism is
that what you're going dynamism dynamism thank you very much Zach um is with with mamu is interesting
enough for me
that like with the advantages that they can create is there even a further unlocked version of this
player um that we're just like not quite sure what his offensive you know ceiling
is I can tell you like the Lakers were very interested in like finding
offensive-minded for
the summer. They called on
Nas Reed early on. They didn't make what
I would consider to be a very serious offer
for Nas Reed, but they called
and checked in. I think he was one of the players
they identified
teams that had some salary pressure points.
Maybe there was a way you could get a guy
for 75 cents.
That's a guy with some dynasticism
or whatever you just said. He's got
it. That's a guy who's got it.
Yeah, and that was a player
that they looked at. I think
again, didn't really put
a real offer on the table
for him, but if Minnesota was in a
sell-off, they were willing
to say, hey, maybe we can save you some money
here.
I think, obviously,
Mamou
is different than Nas Reed,
but I think
the vision as
a bench scoring
4.5
power forward center hybrid,
you can see it, and I think
he'll be, to me, he is a guy
who potentially
can raise their ceiling and
could win you a shift in a playoff
game if he plays well.
He did not play well last year in the playoffs at all, though.
I can't. He did
not. He fell to the fringes of
Toronto's rotation against Cleveland
because of his defensive limitations, and he's
the kind of guy who's just got to make a lot of shots to play
at a high level. I do
have to pause and say I can't believe
a Lakers reporter
covering Luka Doncic's team.
Just basically said, you can
see the vision in
a sentence because
one of the things I'm really going to miss
about the season, Dan,
I'm going to miss the
Nico Harrison staircase in
Dallas. Do you remember the staircase where it's like
he can't exit the arena
or enter the arena through the fans
at all, so here's the staircase we have
to wheel in for Nico Harrison?
I really think that that should
be memorialized in the arena.
It should have a velvet rope,
roping it off, but it should stay there
at all times as a
reminder. It was like right by the media
seats, too. Like it was too much like
you were way exposed
if you're like somebody who's trying to like keep a low
profile in that building, way too
exposed. Okay, so Sexton, you mentioned
I love, I've always loved Sexton, if
only because he carries himself
like he's the best player on the floor at all times.
And I absolutely love that, especially from little
guys. So basically like what
you're for this team to really
exceed expectations, and I'm not even sure
exceeding expectations is is anything
different than being like the
three seed and being exciting is
this isn't just a very good offense.
It becomes like a top three offense
in the NBA, and they are going
to get just open look after
open look because that's what Luca does
in the pick and roll, and they have a great secondary
ball handler and Reeves, who I agree is a very
good bet to make his first all-star team.
And then if you're the
third best offense instead of the eighth best
offense, and you're
somehow a league average
defense, which I think
is probably about the ceiling. And
again, JJ and
his staff, they paper over
what looks like just untenable defensive
combinations. They play zone. They mix
it up. They switched a lot last year. They just figure
it out. Then
that's the profile of like a
54 win team
that yeah, you get into the playoffs and
you just hope for like an avalanche
of threes in
a couple of games. And then maybe you're
have a one one
against the Spurs and Thunder. I just see
no universe in which they can beat those teams when they're
healthy, which I think is the bigger question
here is like, you
know, I don't know what else you want to say about
this year's team. I think they're just going to be very good.
I don't I think I don't think
there's any universe if they're healthy
where they're not a top six team,
and I don't think there's any universe if
the Thunder and Spurs are healthy where they're like a
contender make the final. So I do think they're
boring in that sense. It's almost a compliment
to them because I think they're going to be really
really good. Yeah, it's just sort of like
roll the ball out and let's find out. I think
you know, you mentioned and you mentioned this
on the pot with Bill, but
you know, JJ Redick
has exceeded and the Lakers have
exceeded win total projections and each of his
first few years. They've done it with
with flawed
rosters at least when it comes in terms to
like fit like he could he said that
thing like this is the first team. I'm coaching
or like it really feels like the pieces fit
clutch. I was going to say
it raised some eyebrows.
But I do but I do think
that like, you know, he coached a lot out of
necessity the last couple
of years, right, which was like there
are these problems. We're going to identify these problems
and like, you know, we are going to we're going to try
to like plug holes in the boat as best as we can
for as long as possible. I mean, this is a
team's act that had I believe like a top
three ranked defense after the
Anthony Davis trade. Yeah, that's one of those
things were like you have these month-long
periods in the NBA and that was longer
than a month. That was like 25 games where
it's like like the net slash
last year had the number one defense in the
NBA in December and you're like I and then
years go by and someone
like you mentions that on a podcast.
How did it was like
there was a shooting that I was
shooting like but what they did
during that stretch right was like they identified
like very clearly every night like
these are the players, you know that
we're willing to live with taking these very
specific shots and you
know because they were very detail oriented
and they were a smart team,
you know, they were able to like
execute game plans really well.
They executed game plans. I think again
last year really well without
what I would consider to be like
a traditionally
like strong defensive roster and
now look Houston had real
offensive issues, you
know with Kevin Durant. They
had him without Kevin Durant, but
that in that playoff series like that
team executed a very
specific defensive game plan
like very well and that's I think a
credit to JJ and his staff
and their ability to like identify problems
identify pressure points and then
like disseminate that information to the team
and get them to buy into whatever they're going to do.
I think they can be a little more
creative this year. They're going to be problems
that are going to be identified with. I mean one of them
is like what do you do when Walker Kessler's not playing?
Like that's to me is
like a very big issue for this team
and by the way when the guy that we're talking about played
five games last year that she keeps
some people up at night. Yeah, that's
I mean like that's a real thing
Looney
I just outside of the
Warriors machine. I just think
he's so unathletic and I
don't know what he is as a backup
five and then you're like after that. It's like is
that where Vando fits in and so
it's like a super small lineup because I mean
they're looking they're looking but
a lot of teams are looking at backup
eggs, you know, it's not
it's not a super robust
market. I mean they also have 16 players
right now too. So it's like
that's they don't have
you know the
ability to like sign a non-guaranteed
contract and take a flyer on a player
like, you know, I mean a
situation I would say that I'm monitoring is
like what's going on at the back of Dallas
is bench with like, you know, are
they going to carry for centers like
really it would it feels weird that they wouldn't
carry see say after they matched
the restrictions. You say solid.
He would be a great addition to the ever shakes
free Dwight Powell is sort of like
a professor emeritus
at this point and it's in our mannerness.
Yeah, and it seems like you know,
like from everything that
Dusty Mays said about him that
really feels like like he's
in a pretty good spot to maybe make that team.
So like you're monitoring
things like that with the
Lakers. But yeah, I mean it's a real
question is like the non-cash limit. It's
you know, he is going to be he's
tasked with you
know, in addition to being their own protector,
you know, in
addition to having to be durable
and effective based on what the Lakers gave up to
get him.
You know, he's going to have to clean up a lot
of stuff on a nightly basis carrying this.
I mean, this is going to be the most
not probably the most basketball. He's
had to play and also the most important best
while he's had to play certainly
as a pro and no one knows how people
react to that. You just first of all, I thought he moved.
Well, I thought he moved really well though. Yeah, he's
I again, I did a deep dive on him.
I think he's going to be massively successful.
I still think they paid too high a price
to get in when you consider the pics and the salary,
but I think he's like he's got one triple game
on the pick and roll. He's going to shoot it a little bit.
But he's going to be really good.
Yes, he's going to have to clean up
tons of messes. That's that's life. And yes,
it is the most important basketball. He's played
in the NBA because he's played no important
basketball in the NBA for the tanky
Utah Jazz,
but I think he's going to be. Can I interest you in another
go-around with Mo Bamba? If the
jazz, if the jazz cut him,
that's what we're looking at, man. This
is the kind of names we're looking at, you know,
like, is there a world in which
I mean, you know, I've
monitored like the Leonard
Miller sort of preseason explosion.
That's a, that's a world
monitoring that baby. And
like, does that, does that
entice Chicago to,
you know, consider
Jalen Smith trade offers,
you know, the
idea of Jericho Sims
as like a lob catcher
is, but again, like Jericho
Sims probably isn't tilting your team in any,
any major direction.
Those are kind of like, that's
sort of what the backup big market is.
You know, there's other
teams that are like shopping around. I mean, look, the Lakers
were
the plan. I think after the
Kessler trade and the immediacy of the Kessler trade was
to move forward with DeAndre Ayton as the backup
and kind of stomach
sort of like, you know,
any of the weirdness that would
come with that. And they
were surprised
that they were able to get
multiple picks and
an expiring contract back
and they made the deal. It
In hindsight, would they have rather had some sort of
in play with Jackson Hayes, like, of course, right? Like, sure.
Like Jackson Hayes would be perfect as a backup on this team,
precisely like the kind of player they need who can fill in as a starter.
If Kessler misses two weeks with a, you know,
a mild ankle sprain or something like that.
I'm not sure what answers they have now, if that occurs.
So like they feel a little exposed in that way, but it, but it's, you know,
I think that they're not in, they're not in a huge rush on that, you know,
like things will shake out over the course of the season. And that way,
you know, they'll get another crack in December, but yeah, to the,
to the bigger question, like the ways, the ways forward for them, you know,
is they they've got, you know,
whatever they're going to do with the trade deadline this year with one swap
and three second round picks,
which you're limited and what you're able to going to be able to do.
And then the next thing that comes is they'll have the mid-level next year.
Right. And this is, this is what they would tell you, right?
This is what the front office would tell you is we have,
the,
this is we're still building our team around Luca.
Like this is not the finished product. The trade is still relatively recent.
We haven't had that many off seasons to retool.
And that's the tool that they have, because I mean, you know this,
but I just want to read it out for listeners 2027 this year,
first round pick to Memphis protected one to four. That's from,
I believe the Russ trade.
That's the Westbrook trade, which by the way, it just, it's so long ago.
Now it just cannot be overstated.
How damaging the ripple effects of that trade continue to be because that
pick is out the door.
All the players like KCP and Kuzma that went out the door to get him in the
beginning. Like there's fungibility there. Anyway, 2028 first round swap.
It's a complicated swap. These swaps are on, but it's, it's not great.
2029 is the pick unprotected to Dallas that worked out fine for them.
I think I'd make that trade again.
Do that again. I think. Yeah. 2030 first round. Utah has swap rights, 2031.
And 33 unprotected to Utah for Kessler. And you mentioned the swap 20, 2032.
They could swap their first rounder. All their seconds have also been traded,
but they have a couple of extra seconds coming from other teams.
They're capped out because of all the signings they made this summer.
This to me is just like,
I think this is even being under discussed on a national level,
how trapped the Lakers are into like when you're sitting here saying, man,
they could have really used Deandre Ayton and they have the mid-level next
summer. Like you're,
that's where we're at with this team. And I don't know. And, and like,
I don't, it's just, it's boring to talk about, but they really are trapped.
Like this is the team. And I don't really understand.
Can I give you a nightmare scenario for that?
Well, no, I'm going to give you some more nightmares.
I'm going to give you some more nightmares before,
like it's not just the rust trade. It's hood Shafino. It's connect.
It's the Caruso decision,
which still haunts them like to choose tail and Horton Tucker and Kendrick
none over him. Like all the,
all of this stuff is forgotten and is in manifests in like all the
opportunity costs of stuff.
Do we feel,
do we feel differently about the Lakers going forwards in the next 10
months? If they draft, um,
Terrace Reed instead of Cameron Carr, like, does that,
does that solve enough of their, like, what do we do?
People are pretty high on Cameron Carr.
Me too. But I think like the Cameron Carr thing is like a two,
like he is going to have to play, you know,
two years from now,
I think, um, you know, my,
my hopes for him in the short term, I think are fairly limited, right?
Like there's not, there are wings for days ahead of him in that,
in that rotation. Um, you know, he's got to get much, much stronger,
but yeah, like there's, there's NBA skills there.
Terrace Reed may play for the Spurs this year in certain circumstances.
Like he looks very ready to play.
Yeah. And like, you know,
and I think that was a player they had considered at that spot, um,
shares an agent with Austin Reeves and Jake Arabia as well.
So like, I think, um, you know, to me,
like they do have to hit on this.
I mean, another ceiling raiser for them is a do zero, right.
Is a guy that, um, you know,
part of the reason I think why they weren't like totally bent out of shape
about losing out on Jonathan Kaminga. I mean, they were interested,
but it wasn't like a full press recruitment.
I would say is the way I would put it, Zach. How do I say that?
Like, sure.
I just, I just think you can't, if you're bent out of shape,
over losing out on Jonathan Kaminga, you're, you're just bent.
You're bent and there's no one bending you.
Um, but you know, like the argument for Kaminga, right.
Is that like, here's like, I mean, the argument,
the version of Kaminga that they wanted, they didn't want the,
I think I can be TMAC version. They wanted, you know, like,
is there a way I could be some sort of like, you know, discount Aaron Gordon,
hyper athlete who can, you know,
space the floor a little bit and defend and run and transition to be a
monster, you know, a do thorough.
Is one of the best athletes in the NBA. Um, a do thorough though, um,
didn't play a lot last season because of a knee issue,
a knee issue that kept him out of the NCAA tournament in college,
a knee issue that helped push him down a lot of draft boards.
A lot of teams had him red flagged. Um, you know, he's been healthy, um,
for most of this preseason didn't plan their last game. Um,
don't think it's anything major,
but he is a guy that gives them a level of like pop and athleticism.
Um, that really no one else on the roster does the other nightmare scenario
though, that I'll give you Zach, what does I Williams has a good year?
Like what if they're like a good,
what if they're the version of the team we talked about 51 wins, you know,
plays a competitive second round series though, in which like,
it's pretty clear they're not good enough, but like Zyra Williams,
former lottery pick has the type of three and D season you want to have.
Um, you're going to have to, if you want to keep that player,
you're gonna have to pay them.
And the only way you're going to do it is with your mid-level.
Yeah.
Because they don't have,
they don't have bird rights.
Yeah.
So like that's like another early,
early,
early,
early,
another one of like the kind of tricky things with like that type of young
investment.
And they've had this problem in the past where they've taken on a number of
these sort of like lottery pick reclamations.
Um,
and I've had some very like Malik monk,
um,
in that horrible Westbrook season,
um,
really played very well for them.
Yeah.
Rui Hachimura,
um,
who they did pay,
um,
they've,
they've gone down this road.
I mean,
they've done it with two ways with guys like Nick Smith,
you know,
um,
this is an,
um,
I think in part because like up until,
you know,
a month and a half ago,
they didn't have a pro scouting staff necessarily for years.
It seems like,
it seems like a thing you'd want to have.
Well,
I mean,
it's the thing they're going to need right now because,
um,
like they don't have these traditional pathways.
Like I said,
like,
it's not like they have first round picks to undo mistakes.
Um,
you know,
Rambis can't just do every department of the organization anymore.
Then,
well,
this is,
it's a brand new day over there,
Zach.
And in a month and a half,
it's going to be another brand new day.
And,
uh,
but that is one of the things I think at least they're going to have to be
much better on the margins.
Um,
as they,
as they build this teams out,
I mean,
the Luca Dallas teams are the template,
right?
Um,
one of the key,
one of the most important pieces of those teams was Derek Jones jr.
And that was an on the margins play at the time.
Um,
you know,
he was not the version of Derek Jones jr.
Today where like teams would line up gladly to take him on for a
second round pick from the Clippers.
Um,
you know,
the Clippers love Derek Jones jr.
It doesn't really seem like they're that compelled to trade him right
now,
but you know,
like they need to find those kinds of guys.
I think I do.
Thero has a shot.
We'll see.
Um,
you know,
and there's a pathway there because of his athleticism.
He's potentially a guy that if he hits could move their,
their trajectory up a little.
Um,
the problem is,
is like the teams that are catching,
are still ascending,
right?
Like they're still both.
This is where I want to end because I think this is like,
I don't know Luca at all.
I know Austin a little bit.
I don't know Luca at all.
I know these guys are wired to think like we're so good.
We can,
we can beat anyone.
We can overcome anything and beat anyone.
And I just wonder what happens.
What happens if they have a pretty good year,
they get to the second round and they just get walloped by these young teams
that are still ascending.
And do they ever look in the mirror?
And I'm talking about the best players and,
and say like,
what like Lucas 27 Austin is 28.
They're not like 23 years old.
It like,
is that invincibility that they feel punctured at all?
And do they get to a point where it's just like,
what is our end game here?
Do we just wait for the second apron to,
to break up these teams?
Is that it?
Or wait to get lucky with an injury.
And like I,
cause that's really what they're staring at.
And they're only,
we know you and I know what their unsaid only out is to,
to like change the team in a dramatic way.
It's trading Reeves and,
and I don't,
but like,
is that a lateral move?
Does that even help you at all?
Probably makes you more different.
Yeah.
And I just,
I just wonder if the realization hits that,
like we are miles away,
like as great as Luca is.
And I,
I think I had him fourth in ringer 100 and as great as Reeves is,
and I've said,
he's going to be a first time all-star,
like it's just,
isn't enough.
And I,
what happens when that smacks them in the face?
I mean,
I think,
you know,
two summers ago I went to Poland and I watched Luca with the
Slovenian national team at Euro basket.
And they were not close to being the most talented
team.
Like,
like when you consider players two through 14 on their
roster to some of the other teams they played, you know, this
has been the case for years with with luke okay these are teams that he's not only dragged but
like like the guys around him just level up right like there's just like that is i would say this to
me is like the last of like the this is the argument for the lakers well he's that luke is
luke is good enough he is good enough he's gonna have to be good enough and he made the finals
already um with a team similar to this there was just no team like the thunder and the spurs in the
conference at that time and if if if you transpose these lakers to the east they're a finals contender
because the east is deep but it doesn't have a beast like this i mean apologies to the knicks
they just they have to they they were a 53 win team last year before they just went on a magical
ride i just don't know what what else to say i mean it just is what it is
i i think there's no patience in in luka donchich there's no patience in austin reese um there's no
patience in jj reddick in any of this right like they're they are building but you know they have
been very clear about the goal for this season is to compete for a championship um you know
on paper it seems impossible i think the like i said the best argument
and you know is that you have you have a player in luka donchich um who can make
everyone around him better and he's going to have to untap that power in a way that you know i mean
look he's in fantastic shape for the second year in a row um you know like maybe this is just what
he does now you know there's hope that this is like habits have been built habits will be followed
through on and um you know he's got to have the best season of his life i think that was and he's
also got to not be i mean it's not it's bad luck like he's he's injured at the end of the year last
season like i think yeah like it's going to be it's not to end so like pessimistically but again
like if the best version of this lakers involves like a lot of good injury luck it involves guys
leveling up because of the players around them like you can see it um you can see how it can
the vision perhaps zach as some have said in the past the um the problem is is that the reality
that that smacks you in the face is like
a lot is going to have to go right for them to catch two teams that seem uncatchable and that
just seem uncatchable that's okay right like it's not i don't think it's okay for those guys though
and that's what's fascinating i that's that's fine we'll see what happens like but big picture
like it's not their fault that these teams sprung up in their conference and that this
alien came from france and is now a spur like it's not their fault they're a really good team
and they're not incorrect that luca by himself with shooting and playmaking around him
is so dangerous that they could get into a series with like the thunder and maybe j-dubs hurt it
doesn't have to be shea it's like maybe j-dubs hurt maybe chet's getting a little queasy in the
playoffs again and they're just they're just like the thunder having to double team luca all over
the place and the lakers are getting open shots and like oh it's two two we have a chance maybe
they get lucky and that somehow some way the thunder and the spurs in one year are not the
one and two seeds and have to play each other in the second round like it's like it's not a
crazy wager to make but it is i think their only wager and i'm interested to see like when the
reality smacks them in the face what happens but i do i like this team and like luca is absolutely
terrifying to game plan against like absolutely terrifying if that step back three is falling for
two weeks they're just they're dangerous at the very least but you know i just we'll see this is
why i wanted to have you on to this and to talk about chase my drought unbeknownst to me who i
became like a little bit obsessed
with for like a couple weeks so good well maybe maybe go ahead i was to say like you know i think
again like and that white socks team you know ran into its its limitations right um as a group and
maybe you know that's what happens when you strike out every at bat but i i think like we will see
and i would ask the lebron people to turn away right now um you know i think like like this team
will has been cultivated
in luca's image it will bond in a way that like luca wants it to bond um you know very european
like team dinners team outings different things like that and we'll see if they can somehow put
together a little like team magic on this and and that would be the other way but it's the path
the positive was this summer is they took a path they went down this path they made very calculated
decisions that are
all defensible in the context of the decisions they made in my opinion they're all defensible
like the cost for custer was way too high there was no other choice like who like there was no
other deal to be made for a center of that level um you know plan b was mitchell robinson
it would have been mitchell robinson and free agency right and that would have been a stopgap
situation so like you know they've gone down this road and now it's kind of to me it's like
sort of on luca it's sort of it's sort of on reeves it's definitely on
jj reddick to answer to to the gap that they're gonna have to fill is is you know last year they
were figuring out how to do this without wing defenders now they're gonna have to figure out
how to be as good as victor women down and and that's um that's gonna be really really difficult
well dan wakey you'll be there to chronicle it all uh for the athletic i wish the chicago white
socks luck next season if there is a baseball season there better be uh and everyone should
follow dan on all the social media platforms and most importantly at the athletic he's great at
his job and it's wonderful to see him but
and i'm glad your dog made a little cameo uh earlier not now he was there before you know
he was 20 minutes ago he popped down the floor he's on the floor and hopped off
uh all right dan wakey everybody thank you sir thanks zach
all right that's it for today's episode of the zach lowe show thanks to stan van gundy
thanks to dan wakey thanks as usual to mike billy and jonathan on production and thanks to you all
for listening to and or watching the zach lowe show we will see you next week on the eve of the
season i can't wait thanks everybody
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Stan Van Gundy identifies Indiana and the Lakers as the most confusing teams entering the season due to roster changes, injuries, and inconsistent depth.
He is significantly higher on Toronto and Houston, with Toronto’s potential due to Kawhi Leonard’s health and Houston’s strong defensive schemes.
Van Gundy is notably lower on Minnesota and Miami, citing injury risks, depth concerns, and poor defensive balance.
His "Stan Crush" segment highlights players like VJ Edgecomb, Pascal Siakam, and Dylan Cardwell for their energy, hustle, and under-the-radar impact.
He emphasizes the evolution of pick-and-roll strategies, ghost screens, and offensive rebounding as key on-court trends.
Van Gundy stresses the importance of defending Wemby’s physicality and rim protection as a top swing factor in the championship race.
He believes new tanking rules and compressed win totals will increase competitiveness and reduce blowouts in the regular season.
The Lakers’ roster stability, especially with Walker Kessler’s defensive potential, remains a key uncertainty for the season.
Summary:
Stan Van Gundy provides a deep, analytical preview of the 2024 NBA season, focusing on team dynamics, roster risks, and on-court strategies. He highlights Indiana and the Lakers as the most unpredictable teams due to injuries and lineup shifts, while expressing strong confidence in Toronto and Houston. Van Gundy is notably skeptical of Minnesota and Miami, citing depth issues and defensive weaknesses.
He identifies key on-court trends like ghost screens, pick-and-roll evolution, and offensive rebounding as pivotal for teams to adapt. His "Stan Crush" segment celebrates players like VJ Edgecomb and Dylan Cardwell for their energy and impact. A central theme is the importance of physicality and rim protection, particularly in countering Kawhi Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Van Gundy also emphasizes how the new tanking rules and compressed win totals will elevate competitive balance. Ultimately, he sees the season as a test of resilience, with the Lakers’ defensive depth, especially Walker Kessler’s rim protection, as a critical swing factor. The episode blends personal insights with strategic analysis, offering a nuanced, player-centric view of the NBA season’s key questions.
FAQs
State Farm takes time to get to know individuals so they can offer personalized coverage based on lifestyle and budget, much like a good neighbor.
Amtrak offers onboard Wi-Fi and comfortable seating, allowing fans to relax and watch pregame coverage during their journey, helping them arrive ready for game day.
Stan Van Gundy finds Indiana and the Los Angeles Lakers to be particularly confusing due to roster changes, injuries, and uncertain performance despite strong preseason signs.
Stan Van Gundy is notably higher on Toronto, believing they can be a top-tier team if Kawhi Leonard is healthy, despite being overlooked by many.
He emphasizes the evolution of pick-and-roll defenses, including ghost screens and offensive rebounding, as key shifts in how teams strategize in modern basketball.
He identifies how teams combat Giannis Antetokounmpo and especially how they handle the physicality of a dominant player like Kawhi Leonard or a center like Rudy Gobert.
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