Rookie Range of Outcomes + Jason's Projections - Dynasty Fantasy Football

[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footmuller's dynasty podcast with Borg Betts and a Baller. [music] Welcome in! It's May 6th here at Fantasy Footmuller's dynasty podcast and it's Borg Betts and Jason. Jason's all on. He's back to bring so much wisdom. I am. The Baller. I mean, Jason's takes are just all I'm here for is wisdom and a few of it. Yeah, yeah. We're doing work. It's an exciting time to be alive. Jason, you just celebrated birthday. How did a good little week get away in Vegas? Went to Vegas. I have now recovered, so we're okay. Oh, it took three days? Yeah. About three day recovery. You must not have partied very hard then. Watch your mouth. It's so funny, like, at this point in life, like I don't drink that much, right? But if I have like A beer, A cocktail, like the next two days, I'm just like wrecked. So I can't. The kids these days, the youths Kyle, I don't understand. That is even a thing anymore. But I've actually never been to Vegas. I've heard good things outside of the. You know, like the. Outside of the bad rings. Right, rings. But I've heard it's actually an awesome experience outside of the prototypical experience. No, it's. There's a lot of. I mean, there's a lot of neat and interesting things there. It's just a matter of, you know, pick your poison. I will be there in July. Take it, take it, take it in the wife. Go into the sphere to see, of course, the backstreet boys. There you are. They're back. They're all right. They're still, they're still back. I thought you were gonna say Kyle. Take it, bang, bang, bang. Take it in the wife. Take it some money out of our kids college fund and see what happens on the strip. I'm maybe she'll do better than me. Just give her a little money, see what happens. You're back, Jason. And one of the things that I'm glad you're on this specific episode for is the projections, the ultimate draft kit. You've been going team by team. And I know that the work that you get to do there is like you are just huddled up deep in stat work. And so sometimes it's hard to come out of that world and be able to articulate that. But I'm gonna try to get you to do that on this show. I will try to follow your lead. But yeah, I mean, it's, when I say it's an exciting time to be alive. It really is the, the stat work getting now that the NFL draft is in the rear view mirror. We know the lay of the land for pretty much every single team minus the B.A.J. Brown is gonna eventually be a patriot thing. You can really dive deep and look at the NFL as a whole. Make it down to visions, look at the schedule and get to the grindy work that, you know, it's funny because it's like if this was the type of work I had to do 12 months of the year. Oh my gosh. Talk about burnout, hatred, pure vial, awfulness. But when you really spend one month of the year diving that deep into that, the level of data, it's just fun. It's so fun for me, addictive. So I look forward to it every year. I'm curious, Jason. Is there somebody that stood out early in the process that you're like, whoa, that came out like good or bad way different than I thought it was going to from a projection standpoint? Yeah, there's been, there's been a handful of guys. I was surprised with how high DAC was in my rankings. I was, I think I think there's some guys Tyler Warren stood out in a very good way for me, which obviously is not shocking. I don't think. But every time that we finish up and we start comparing our stats, it's always fun to see the guys that are like, oh, apparently I'm not nearly as high on George Pickens this year as, you know, he was a my guy last year and Andy's higher on him than I am right now. So yeah, I mean, it's hard to say that off the top of my dome. I'd have to look in. But there's also the fascinating, like there's the questions that you go in with. I did not know where I would rank Adonze and Luther Burton. I didn't, I was like, how, what are my beliefs? How do I view those two guys? I know on film what I saw, I know the body type, the route, you know, trees that they're both working with, but I wasn't sure going in like who I would prefer to have if they had the same ADP. And then you do the work and you go, okay, I guess I guess I'm a Rome guy or vice versa. If you are new to fanship all over the world, the dynasty podcast like Jason, Andy and Mike go team by team through every single, you know, player, they look at the target projections, they look at the pace of play and all of that. You can find in the ultimate draft kit, ultimate draft kit.com today on this show, we'll be looking at a couple of rookies and talking about their range of outcomes for year one. So some of the guys that Jason has started out, we're going to work through like, hey, what would a year one look like? And what does that mean for their dynasty value? Because if you just drafted these players in your rookie drafts, you're probably looking at them in rose colored glass. You're saying yourself like, I drafted this player because I could see this happen in year one for this player. We kind of want to paint a picture, a range of outcomes for you. So if you want all of those statistics, you'll find them ultimate draft kit.com, all the dynasty rankings, everything that we'll talk about is on the show. It's in there. I did want to get y'all's reactions to after your rookie drafts, who are some players that went in the third round or fourth rounds of your rookie drafts or players that you want to highlight that people were picking up in free agency. So I went back last year and looked at man, who are the guys that we picked up right after the draft that I was hot and bothered by? Didn't really matter. It was like nobody last year off the waiver wire right after the draft was great. But I think there's some interesting games this year and we brought this up last week on our mock draft episode. The guys going picks 204 to 312 feel very, very similar. Like, I mean, there's preferences. There's guys I want in the second round, like Antonio Williams, I drafted everywhere. But then there are guys in the third round. It's like they could easily go undraftive for people. So that's, is there any names you want to highlight for people that are where later rookie picks? Yeah, I feel like people that have been listening to the last couple weeks are going to know this name. I've been stashing Max Claire again. Year one, who the heck knows they've got like 14 tight ends. Probably not going to work. But it was round two pick. It's a good offense. We'll see Oscar Delp is another tight end who I think is at least worth a stash just kind of given the state of the tight end depth chart in New Orleans. Not the best production profile, but did have some good athletic testing. So we'll see what happens there. But the one that I am actually pretty excited about when he falls to me in the third round is Elijah Sirop out of Indiana. Obviously, goes to Baltimore. And when you're thinking about the depth chart, like we have to remember, this is a brand new situation with Harbaughna in New York. So a new staff, they kind of hand picked this guy. He was after Jacobi Lane, but I think Elijah Sirop has a better fantasy profile than Jacobi Lane personally. And Rashad Bateman somehow keeps getting money from the Ravens, but he kind of hasn't done anything in a long time. And so behind Zayolay, this team is kind of looking for a second option to step up, especially with his eyes, they likely out. Mark Andersen of the year older. So I think Elijah Sirop is a really interesting guy in the third round of rookie drafts. Jason, anybody that you've seen in that, I mean, I mean, there's a name that sticks out like insane to me because I've got him, I've got him as my 14th player. So he should not be in the third round. I've seen him in the, in the real leagues that I've been in. He's been in each and every third round, which is a day on, struggling. Stribbling should not be in the third round of these rookie drafts. I know people, ah, the 49ers, they reached, reaches, don't work. Oh, my gosh. This is terrible. This pad pig is bad player. I didn't know him in the draft process. So I'm out. That's just ludicrous. He is the top of the second round NFL pick. He is going to a team that can really use him. George Kittle is he healthy? I don't know. Sure, you bring in an older Mike Evans. You lose John Jennings. They really still need more quality targets. We don't know that Ricky Peersol can do anything. It's not an, you know, a depth chart that is not able to be overcome, but it is an offense. You expect to be good. So to me, I feel like when you hit the third round to, if you look back on past years, the idea that in the third round of your rookie draft, you're going to, what, what was his pick like 30, 33, 33, I mean, so like top of the second, a borderline first round pick. And years past, the idea of getting someone picked at 33 in the third round of a rookie. Like T Higgins is ludicrous is ludicrous. Yeah, exactly. Like imagine T Higgins falling to the third round in your, it's ludicrous. But then it's happening this year. It's happening during the year where at the back of the first, it's all a crap shoot. And you're like, I have no idea who to take. Everyone sucks. And so yeah, that's the guy that in the third round. I'm excited to get shouldn't be there. The guy on the other end, like the, the deeper might even go undrafted in your league that I am really excited about simply because, I don't know, I'm hopeful as production profile is insane, but as Heidenreich, Heidenreich seventh round pick, going to the Steelers, Eli Heidenreich at a Navy who's like, is he a wide receiver? Is he a running back? He's listed a running back. Is he, you know, he was a quarterback. But, you know, it's like, whatever he is, all I know is he put up stats that were outlandish. They were akin to CMC type of receiving production and he's going to a team whose leading receiver last year was a running back, who is no longer on the team. So if you could paint a picture, I'm like, okay, how does Heidenreich get used? He falls to the seventh. I mean, genuinely probably a nothing, just a complete zero burger. But also, where, if I could have picked where Heidenreich went, if he had to go super late, I don't know that there's a much better spot. Assuming Aaron Rogers comes back, he could end up getting a lot of targets on that team. If he makes it. It's, it's a weird team to project moving forward. We'll talk about the Steelers. We're going to bring up Jeremy Bernard later, but like, something's probably going to change with how the passing pie work, because last year, even you think about the Y receiver depth chart of like Roman Wilson, that didn't work. Calvin Austin, that didn't work. And they've kind of tried to figure out, like, okay, maybe we have more three wide receiver sets. Maybe they throw the ball more. So that will be an interesting team that, like, he feels like the perfect player, Heidenreich, it's like, he's going to be on my taxi squad. And I'm going to look at him and I don't know what he's going to become. But those are the players you want to stash that have a pass catching profile. The name I want to bring up is Adam Randall, a guy that we talked about as podcast. I've gotten a couple of places in the third round. I'm not really like picking him because he went to the Ravens. And I think he's going to take over opportunities. It's more of who knows down the road, if a year from now, things change with Henry or whatever, he'll probably live forever. But at least it's a profile I'm betting on. Once again, a pass catching profile and a guy who's a unicorn, that's kind of as far as I can go for a third round pick. Yeah. And in the depth chart, there is like, if you want to, let's say Henry doesn't get injured, you've got to kind of outplay an older justice hill and Rashina Lee. It's not, it's not like if he shows up at camp and is really making waves, it's not like he can't earn some touches. And then if that happens and something happens to an elder statesman in King Henry, which of course can't happen because he is immortal, I, you know, it's not, it's not a bad landing spot. The only thing that was just so weird and funny is that it was like a gift picked to the owner. However, however, you know, I was thinking about that. Like if you don't know the story, if you haven't heard it from either episode's pass or elsewhere, the second fifth rounder for the Ravens, the owner of the Ravens said he wanted to make one of these picks. And so the GM was like, hey, you're the owner. You know, it's your team because he listens to our podcast and heard us talk about him. Exactly. And so they gave that pick to the owner. The owner takes Adam Randall. So at first, I was like, that is like, okay, this isn't even the, how much of this is the scouting department? The, this is like a weird one off pick. But then think about it in reality. Don't you think the team wants to like have the owner's guy work out? Like this is the owner's, the owner hand picked Adam Randall. You're gonna try to like get him along. Like you've got to jot all these people, all these coaches. They get the check paid by the man upstairs. You know what I mean? Like, I don't know. I love Adam Randall in the third round. That's so funny. I was actually thinking about that exact same way that you did the first time around where I was like, okay, I think this is a bad thing. You know, it's like, it's like a fake, like, you can just pick him if you want. But the way that you spun it, if you have Adam Randall, you like that story. So I'm just like, yeah, yeah, yeah. I will say though, just look at it however you want. Exactly. On the lines of kind of the guys we've talked about, a common theme is like new coaching staffs coming in and picking their guys like Serrat Adam Randall, Oscar Delt to some degree, right with the Saints and that kind of thing. Like, I do think there's a path this year where like the consensus boards and that's been a whole discussion point are kind of just all over the map and you have new staffs coming in that want to get their guys in the field. So to Adam Randall's point, like Justice Hill was like a harboring favorite, right? Like ultra reliable, dependable kind of had his role. Like, who knows if that's the same under this new staff. So I love that call out there with Adam Randall. Is this interesting when I look at the other running backs that are taken in the second round of rookie drafts? It's like Emmett Johnson, it's Singleton, K-Tron Allen guys that pretty much have the same draft capital, right in the fifth round and K-Tron, I think was in the sixth. It's like Randall's right there, he's just getting pushed to the third because of the situation and the opportunity, perceived opportunity for those guys where, you know, I don't think any of us thought that Randall was way less talented than some of these other guys. But at the end of the day, I wish I could just say this player has an opportunity to hit in their first year, but round three picks, undrafted guys, like it's such a thin needle to thread that you're just hoping that somebody towards the end of the year can kind of catch on. So we will check back in on some of these names, especially as we go throughout the season. Let's hit Quick Break and we'll talk about these rookies. (upbeat music) This episode we've done the last couple of years and I think it's an interesting thought exercise right after rookie drafts, where we consider the high end outcome, the median outcome, the low end outcome for a player and what it does to their dynasty value. I went back and looked, there are some years where we talked about a player and we said, well, if they get hurt, here's what this could do for their dynasty value. Like we talked about Anthony Richardson one year on this episode and we said, well, if he gets hurt, I feel like we'll all give him a free pass the next year because we won't know what he is. Same thing happened with Tray Lance. So it's just interesting like injuries at some level actually in dynasty, like kind of just push things down the road and you're kind of just like, oh, I don't know what to do with this player. Jonathan Brooks, right? Like I still don't know what to do with him, even what, three years in. So part of this is just looking through a different thing and then Jason, you're gonna bring up some of the projections that you have right now in the ultimate draft kit. That are still in process. I wanna be very clear. - Mm-hmm. These are not finalized, not till June 1st. - There you go. - Well, they're not even finalized until kickoff 'cause they're always updating. But yeah, right now they are like the first go run where I don't even truly know my rankings. Like I didn't, it's a different process. I'm not like putting guys in order and then I'm like, oh, these are my rankings that I just decided. This is like, when you start these guys out and you're done, it's like, okay, where is this guy? Where did he land amongst people? I think it's a much more accurate way to look at it, but it means I don't really even know the order of my guys perfectly yet. - Yeah, and that's totally okay. Let's jump into it. (upbeat music) - Hey, rookie. Welcome to the NFL. - All right, so we're gonna name a couple players give the high-end expectation of like, man, if they killed in year one, here's statistically what they could do. Here's what this means for dynasty. And then kind of work our way down to the median. Or in other words, here's generally speaking what maybe some of the prop lines have, what we have for projections. And then maybe the low end range. Last year we also talked about Cam Ward, who didn't really run the way that we wanted him to. And therefore, he's kind of just still stuck in this middleing spot. Same thing we did with some other players that we just kind of passing it off. Hopefully in year two, he takes a jump. And then I even looked at Caleb Johnson, who in dynasty, I know a lot of people is like, why are we ever gonna talk about that player? Last year we said maybe he could be the lead back. We also said, well, what if he just sees like 120 opportunities, which is just a very simple medium range outcome. Or what if he never establishes a role, which apparently is what he decided he wanted to do. So the first name is Mendoza. We gotta bring up Fernando Mendoza and also kind of bring up the fact we don't know how many start. So Jason, let's start there. How many projected starts are you giving Mendoza for the Raiders knowing that Cousins likely will start the year? - Yeah, I did a nine and eight game split. Cousins starting the first nine. The final eight for Mendoza is how I have it kind of statted out. Obviously this is a situation where if Mendoza is just god mode there, he could start week one. Anytime you take the number one overall pick, that is in the range of outcomes. But Cousins is not just some tired old incumbent that is easy to usurp. Cousins is a veteran who is there to start week one right now. The problem is like you, you could say, oh, well then Cousins maybe plays a whole year. the Raiders would like that. I think the Raiders would prefer for cousins to play the whole year. Range of outcomes on the low side from Indosa is he doesn't play snaps in his rookie season. It's just very difficult to imagine that the Raiders win enough games to keep doing that. Right. You know, in order for him to play a full season, they've got to be getting close to, they've got to be a nine win team. You know, they've got to be above 500 to not get replaced. If they're getting, you know, if you go into week 10, I don't know where their by-week is, but assuming their by-week hasn't happened yet, you know, and you're a three-win team, it's just you're not going to stick with cousins. You're going to say, okay, it's time to get the rookie in. The crowd's going to demand it. The people, the ownership. Yeah. So I've got them on a nine and eight game split. Okay. Betts. I know that one of the things that we talked about before is also like his passing yardage line, which I know this is talking about sportsbooks, but like they laid it so high that it got hammered down because I don't think they factored in how many starts this guy's going to get right now. It's about around 2500 passing yards, which is very different than where it opened. But what do you kind of see as like the median range outcome for him? Yeah. I think just adjacent's point on the Cricusns thing. I agree with that. I mean, if you look at the contracts that not just this year, but like his thoroughly what he signed, that is a rich man. He's getting paid like low-end starter money this year. Now, like that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to start the entire season, but I agree with you. I think they would love it if they could have Kirk in there for two months, and then maybe turn the keys over eventually. From my expectation standpoint, I'm with you that I would be shocked if he doesn't play this season just because their win total is five and a half in kind of the betting world and obviously when you're in a division with the chiefs and the Broncos and the chargers, like I think we all know where this is likely headed. I think they'll be better than last year, but doesn't mean that they will be competing for the playoffs. So if that does not happen, I think Fernando Mendoza does see the field, just a matter of when is kind of the expectation there. The tricky thing is that when I look at the situation, I think we all agree like the scheme fits him pretty well. Like I'm pretty excited about the scheme fit here with with cubes. I really wish they did more on the NFL draft to kind of support him with wider receiver talent. They do have Jack Besh. So I mean, they're probably fine. But the big signing was, you know, Jalen Nailer and it's like Trey Tucker and Nailer and all those guys. It's just kind of a hodgepodge group. Obviously Brock Bauer is him and he's incredible, but like I really wish they had another piece here to really support Mendoza. So I think the most like outcome here is he starts roughly half the season give or take. Kind of takes his lumps. Doesn't have a lot of juice as a fantasy score. And then we're kind of looking at his data from his rookie season and saying, okay, what if they put more more weapons around him in year two? What could this look like moving forward? It's kind of how I see it going. But yeah, to your point, like on the line on his passing yards, open it like like 3,100 roughly and it's all the way down to 25 hundred because people are expecting him not to play the entire season. Yeah, I had him started out basically a 17-game pace of 3,300 passing yards. And so that's like not going to have he's not going to hit 3,100. I mean, that would be the easiest underbeth when you're factoring and not playing 17 games. I wish they were the team that traded for Jalen Waddle from like a scheme fit standpoint. It was just like I want somebody on this team that can run crossers that like that's Bauer's and Bauer's going to be a monster this year. I saw your ranking Jason like Bauer's at one. Yeah, that's where that's where I have him. Best ball. There's no one else to throw the ball to. I mean, right now I've got the second leading target receiver Jack Besh and that's a project. I love it. Gross. You've been here all long. Never heard out. Yeah, never wrong. Just early. I think Ferman does like right now in our startup rankings, which you can also find in the dynasty pass. We haven't met QB 16. So right around Tyler Schuck Jordan love. The thing is with these type of picks at number one, they hold their value. So even if he gets let's say he gets five starts this year, it's like not impressive or you think my homes. Remember my homes had one start the final part of the year and the next year is when he blew up like he's going to hold his value into next year and like Bet said, hopefully they add another pass catcher in the next year or so. What would even beyond that even even beyond next year if he plays poorly, you still retain. Look at Bryce Young. Right. Bryce Young was straight benched. I mean, not injured just like you're not good enough. You are no longer our starting quarterback, but the investment there gave him another chance and another chance. And now it's like, okay, he's still the starting quarterback. And yeah, he's been bad and he's not like this fantasy asset that you really need. But if you're in a super flex league, you're throwing Bryce Young in there from time to time. He's an important. He's there's only 32 starters. So he's one of them that that draft capital to 101. Just carries it over a carry's weight. I even think about what Caleb did his rookie year were like the struggles of just reading NFL defenses. They were there, but he had ceiling games for fantasy. So like you kind of sprinkled those N so you saw where it could go. I think the final question I have from Mendoza, will he ever run enough to be somebody that were like, man, that guy had a top eight fantasy season. I think he could. That's one of those really tough things because he wasn't this prolific dual threat quarterback in college. He has the physical tools and the capabilities to do that. I like in it a little bit to Justin Herbert, who Justin Herbert is fully capable of being a more mobile quarterback. Doesn't need to. Doesn't prefer to once to sit in the pocket and distribute the ball, but has the physical tools to be able to do so. And then we've seen years where it's like, oh, he he does have a bigger impact on fantasy because he runs for more than 300 yards. You know, I've got Mendoza 330 rushing yards as a full season pace, but that's one of those where it's like you're you are guessing that's sometimes you can you could put a number down and you you feel super confident on it. On this, it's like if if he was to be a guy that comes out and rushes for 150 in a full season, I could see that. Yeah, I'm looking at what Kim Ward did last year, where they actually had a very similar rushing yarded share in college, both 101, Kim Ward was at 17 games play it. He ended up with just 159 rushing yards where like that was the part of the equation with Kim Ward. We're like, is he is he going to run? We know he can sling the ball. We hope he's in shootouts, but 159 yards is not enough to be a fantasy difference maker. So yeah, I think Mendoza can get there eventually. Let's talk about Gidere and Price because his range of outcomes before the draft was this guy go in the first round to is it going to be a good landing spot. He ended up in a great landing spot in the first round. Check the boxes that we want right now on our rookie ranks. We have met the 106 in super flex and then in startups, the RB 21. I thought that was really interesting looking at a startup rankings like, okay, here's the group that he's with, but I'll start with you, bets. What would be a high end outcome for Gidere and Price in year one? And then how likely do you think that is because I think we all assume he'll take over as the lead back. But we've also been in situations like this where it's like, oh my gosh, what, you know, Emmanuel Wilson is seeing more opportunities than one and then eventually Charbonne comes back and this week, George Halani caught four balls or whatever. Yeah, I mean, the high end here is like the most obvious stuff that like you kind of think about what matters fantasy and it works out where it's like, you know, first round draft capital goes to a run heavy team, a good team that is losing Ken Walker and has Zach Charbonne coming off of an ACL injury that was very, very late. So we've already talked about that on the show here. It's like I could see a world where Charbonne is not really contributing in a meaningful way for this team until maybe like November, period time. And it's like, if he is the runway in the first two months to really be the guy and he's good enough, which I think that's what we're all questioning is like the production profile doesn't match the draft capital. So that's why there's this kind of divide in dynasty world is like if he is good enough and then in hindsight, we're like, man, he was competing with George Halani and Emmanuel Wilson for competition and we were worried about that all along, you know, that's the high end where he gets everything and he's awesome and he takes it and runs away with it. I can see that happening like I really could. I question how likely that is to happen though just because this is a team that, you know, for years recently the last like four years or so has always liked that committee approach and that's the part I don't understand truthfully is like how those ainslayer pieces fit in because they're not highly coveted NFL talents necessarily. Whereas clearly this Seattle Seattle organization wanted to get your price so bad they were not willing to let him get to 64. So that's the high end. I could see it happening. I think it's just a highly volatile situation. Looking back over the last decade, we've actually only have three rookie runnybacks taking the first round that hit 10 plus rushing touchdown. So I was looking at like the high end outcome. Really? Yeah, it was Zeke, Sequon, Jemir Gibbs. Now, Fournet was at nine, Naji was at seven. And if you really think about it, the teams that have taken first round rookie runnybacks generally speaking have not built their team the best way. I think we'd all agree on that point. Yeah. And they've been on teams. like, I don't know, the Falcons who take B. John and eight or the Lions who weren't great at the time. You know, Gibbs got there, but it's it's rare to have a first round running back and it's rare for them to have 10 touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns right off the get go. But this is a different situation, right? We usually don't see a running back drafted on a team like this with this type of, you know, clear rushing profile. But I don't know Jason. What's your median outcome that you have projected? Yeah, my medium, my median outcome is not great. I I bumped them up a little bit after my initial rankings put Jadarian about running back 29, not even an RB two, bumped them up a little bit. The last time we saw this situation, which was a running back who drafted to a great team who had a need at the back of the first first round draft capital was when they overdrafted Clyde Edwards a lair and he went to the chiefs and we got so hot and bothered because it was like, oh my gosh, first round draft capital. But actually Clyde, I wasn't that big a fan of Clyde as a prospect that year. He was, he was my sixth ranked pre NFL draft running back. And of course, after that draft, it was like, oh, he's the number one running back in fantasy. And that turned out to be a terrible decision. I don't want to make that same mistake here. This guy does not have the same receiving profile in Jadarian price that Clyde had. Clyde, you know, went to a team that passed the ball to the running back and came from a team that passed the ball to the running back and had a lot of receptions in college. Jadarian price, did he get, did he get to 10 receptions in college? I want to say like, oh, I just fought on his entire career. I can look it up. I want to say, look it up because I don't know. I mean, it's about there. It's like, you know, a couple of catches. And it's again, that is not a guarantee that he cannot 15 15 catches across his collegiate career. It's not to say he is incapable of catching the ball, but we don't have proof that he is good at it. And usually when guys are really good at something, when they excel at something, coaches use it. I mean, it's, there's a reason CMC caught so many passes at Stanford. It's like, oh, because he's really good at that. There might be a reason that they didn't really involve Jadarian price in the passing. So if you take out expected high volume passing, not that he won't be involved in passing at all, but you would never project him to be a high volume pass catching running back as a rookie. If you look at what you were saying, Kyle, it's very rare to have double the touchdowns as a rookie. He doesn't get double the touchdowns and he's not catching the ball. I feel like that real high end year one outlook is, is probably less likely. And there is obviously an offensive coordinator change here as Kubiak left the team. The highest range of outcomes for Jadarian price is he is that dude. He has a ton of breakaway runs and he runs for 1200 and 10. And then you're super duper happy with him. That's his highest range outcome. The median is what I've got, which is, you know, maybe an RB two. He's on the RB two, three bubble for this season. And then the low end ranges, he doesn't catch passes at all. He ends up with six touchdowns. And the second half of the year when sharps his back, they're just on a 50, 50 times share. And you're really getting not an asset you can play in fantasy. Just to give you some historical comps like we've had first round running backs that weren't really the dude at college like they shared the backfield and then teams dropped in the first round. And here's what they did. Rookie or Josh Jacobs was one of those guys. He was really, really good. He only caught like 20 balls. So he ran for over a thousand. He had seven touchdowns. I feel like that would be an excellent season for Jadarian price over a thousand seven touchdowns. Yes. Sony Michelle. I think it's another interesting name that the Patriots hook him 31st overall. He ran for 931 and 6 and only caught seven balls. That seems exactly like what Jadarian's line is going to be. So what was what was he? What was Sony's like running back rank that year? RB 28. Okay. So it's exactly where I got Jadarian. And that's the outcome I see as likely. Yeah. I think we're still just trying to figure out like how much of the pie to these other running backs take up and maybe at the beginning of the year, it's slow. And then you kind of hope that he's just the second half hammer for your team. But that's when Charbonne comes back. So yeah, that's that's the issue is like he's got to get off to a hot start to establish it and say and hold Charbonne off when Charbonne gets back. Are you guys aware of the top of your head? I know we're talking about this year. What is Charbonne's contract status is here for you to the final year. Interesting. So I really I wonder like they're probably going to wait and see how's the recovery going with Charbonne. How does Jadian's performance in year one to make a decision on Charbonne financially? I would not be surprised if like and this set this might sound crazy in hindsight. If like Jadarian prices peak of dynasty value, truthfully might be right now. But like in the first like six to eight weeks and then all of a sudden Charbonne kind of comes back and he does Charbonne's things and we get to March next year and he sounds a contract extension and then we're all like huh. So Jadian price isn't a bell cow. What do we do now? I think that's possible and that sounds crazy to say right now, but I think that's definitely in the range of outcomes as well. Yeah, because I think the picture that we paint at least I did drafting him in one of my dynasty leagues was okay. Well, I don't know if it's going to be there this year, but obviously next year he has a clean path and he's just only going to take off from here. I mean, if they do like sharps go that's possible. Yeah, the potential is there. For sure, the range of outcomes for him is maybe in 2027. He is the dude for a really good team, in which case you've got you know, something great at the running back position for fantasy. I find that to be the the unlikelyest outcome. All right. So I'm going to put this to the test. Right now we have him as RB 21 in our startup ranks. Where do you think he will go next year, a year from now? I'm going to put it at like at like 15 or 16. Like I think he's going to grow. I think I think I agree with that. I do think he will be more valuable next year than he will be this year. That's I think you might be lower. Is that because I drafted him in that league? Yeah, and you're usually not very good at this. So that makes sense. Yeah. That's a good point. That's that's fine. That's fine. Just that's the best part about dynasty when you draft a player and you know that they're just going to drop in value. That's like that's why you want that's why you want to get them. Let's go to carnell Tate. It's like that was like drafting RJ Harvey where it's like, he's so old you know he's going to drop so quick. But he just needed him for that one stretch run. And if you wanted to have you chip with RJ Harvey, hey, you're not you're not disappointed you got him. Yeah, you did fine. Carnell Tate 21 years old. Gosh, he's super young. In our startup ranks, we have him as White receiver 15. I checked a couple other sites. They also met White receiver 15. So we're kind of in consensus of what carnell Tate is long term where he is in rookie drafts. For year one, man, I've heard Andy talking up the Titans. He is he has been talking up cam ward so much to the point that I did not realize this until today I showed bets. But did you know that he flipped Tate as his White receiver one after Tyson had been his White receiver one the whole process? For rookie rankings. For rookie rankings. He flipped him because you know, Andy was the Tyson guy. Yeah. And now he's the take guy. I don't blame anyone for doing that to me. It's a it's a coin flip between those two. I love the landing spot for both of these guys. It's funny because I view shock as a good quarterback. I don't view cam ward as a good quarterback. And that's not to say I'm correct. I think cam ward can be a good quarterback. Like I went I'm hopeful with Tate's landing spot. I'm like, okay, cam ward number one overall pick had some flashes got better when there was some offensive changes later in the year. Yeah. Now that he's got a new coordinator, new weapon, cam ward can absolutely develop into a great quarterback. But for me, it's like a projection. And I would say I view cam ward ceiling as higher than Shucks ceiling. But I feel like Shuck is like what he showed to me was, okay, he's gonna he's gonna get it done. He's gonna he's gonna go out there and throw for 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns. And that you can support fantasy relevance with that, you know. Yeah. I think the hardest part for me projecting Tate at the next level is we saw what he did at Ohio State. And we always kind of threw out there. Man, he didn't command targets the way that we wanted to first somebody who's drafted in the top 10. It's the lowest targets per out run ever for a top 10 draft pick, except for John Ross, which I don't really count. And yet he's what I want in an NFL wide receiver. I like carnal tape the player. I love watching him play. I don't know how that will translate in terms of his statistics. Like his season long prop right now is at 774 and a half yards, 5 and a half receiving touchdowns. If you got those numbers, you'd be like, that's a good year one, but not great. That's that's lower than what Marvin Harrison did and everyone's you know, pissed off at what Marvin Harrison did is a rookie. I feel like the high end outcome is 1,000 yards, seven or eight touchdowns, basically what Teterola McMillan did this past year. - Yes, yeah, exactly. That is the high end outcome for year one. - Okay, Betts, where do you see the kind of range for him? - Yeah, I'm mostly in line with you guys on all that front. I do agree with the general Titans' take. I just think coaching the NFL matters way more than any other sport. Like thinking about what the team was doing at certain points in the year with changing head coaches and play callers multiple times and just, you know, like trotting out, notice respect to Tumir DK and I am an or like, backup level talent as starters. I mean, Van Jeperson is running like 80% of the routes, like give me a break, right? So now you get a real play collar and Brian Debel, who yes, as a head coach, like didn't really work out, but like still I think is a good Schema. You get a quarterback who is variable and to throw the ball down the field and you get a wide receiver who is easily the best in the class at winning down the field. Like I could really see the Titans making some noise this year and being a better offense than we realize. I agree with Jason though, it does take a projection from Cam Ward, like we haven't seen it, right? And so then you ask yourself how much of that is a Cam Ward issue versus a Scheme surroundings issue and if you just think about like how the NFL viewed Cam Ward as the first overall pick, I think you have to at least lean kind of in that distribution of the right side of the curve saying, "Hey, if he is as good as the NFL thought "and Brian Debel is as good as most of us think, "like this probably will work at some point for fantasy." I'm not saying it's gonna be a revelation in your one, but like I think we could have a very solid rookie season here and then he's like the hot year two breakout name that we look forward to next year. - He's going as wide receiver 30 in Best Ball right now. Jason in your projections, I think wide receiver 28. - I've got him. - Yep. - Okay, so like that's a strong rookie season. I feel like for the fourth overall pick, that might not excite people to be the wide receiver 28, but that's like historically speaking, looking at the last decade of rookie wide receivers, that's a strong, that would be a strong finish for him. - That would be a great season. I think the Teterot and McMillan last year is what we should hope for and genuinely, it's what I expect for Tate here. I have him projected for 1029 yards and seven touchdowns, but when it comes to his dynasty value, it really is cam ward, not carnal Tate. Tate, or Ola McMillan just had a sensational rookie year, but we are, we completely have a wet blanket over the upside case for him because we, as a community, we just don't think Bryce Young can really do what it's gonna take to allow him to reach super start him. And I don't think anyone right now thinks Bryce Young is about to turn that corner and light the NFL on fire. Like that is not the expected projection for Bryce Young. So at the end of 2026, it's not gonna be how was carnal Tate's rookie season. It's gonna be good. It's gonna be how was cam ward? Did cam ward look like he is on a projection to be the next young, you know, franchise quarterback that is gonna be a playoff contender, gonna, you know, be up there trying to be a top 10 offense. If so, the value of carnal Tate in dynasty will be like top 10 wide receiver. All right, let me give the other end because I, I mean, I'm excited for him. And I was going through some medium range outcomes, like even CD Lam as a rookie was good, not great. And you kind of saw the trajectory of like, okay, this guy's gonna increase in value. His rookie year was just 74 for 935 and five. That's like good, but not like, whoa, you're blowing the doors off that season. Yeah, but he also, he wasn't the one who's team. He was what a Mari, was that a Mari Cooper when he was still in sprime? Yeah. So that's what I want to bring up because I was going through the range of outcomes. And I said, is there a world where he doesn't see the most targets on this team? Yeah, I mean, one deal. There is a target. One day or a half. I mean, they gave him 38 million guaranteed. He's seen 140 plus targets and back to back seasons with this offensive coordinator, right? Brian, they're with the ball. So there's a world where one day, he's more targets. And let's say carnell's target share is like 18%, 19%. So here's what's crazy. I think that's better for carnell tape because he's got value targets. Because of the cam ward argument. If carnell tape ends up like what happened last year with we keep going back to Tatar, but it was like, there wasn't anyone else to throw the ball to well. So Tatar, oh, it soaked it up and got the majority. You know, he was the clear one for that offense. But Bryce Young didn't look good. Didn't have anyone else throw the ball to. If you're telling me one day Robinson is going to come out here next year and get 140 targets and do great things. Then I am so much even more in on carnell tape because what that means is that it wasn't carnell tape helping cam ward survive. That was cam ward being an NFL quarterback and using all the weapons at his disposal. And so the future is bright, even if it's not as good a fantasy finish in year one. I want like, I want cam ward to succeed for the value of carnell tates. Like, you know, to be a top, to have a fantasy finish where you are a top 10 wide receiver, you've got to have, you've got to have cam ward distribute the ball and look like a real NFL quarterback. Do you feel like you want to from this conversation and this tightens conversation that cam ward seems like a trade candidate that you want to trade for him? I do. No. Oh, no. I mean, so me either. Well, I mean, this, well, no, that honestly, this is a, I'm so glad we're on opposite viewpoints here because this is a decision making moment for everyone. I think we laid out the case for carnell tape and for cam ward as far as what could happen, good and bad. And then the question is, what do you believe? I just, my heart does not believe cam ward is a great quarterback. I didn't view him as a great prospect last year, even though he went one to one, it wasn't one of those Andrew luck type of, we've been waiting for cam ward for four years and now he is the clear next great quarterback. I don't think cam ward is going to be that dude. And so having that conversation, I mean, my projections have carnell tape with a thousand and seven, which is an amazing rookie season, but cam ward not taking that massive step forward. And if that happens, I think we'll be disappointed in intake. Do you, I'm just curious Jason, you have your projections pulled up? Yeah. What do you have cam ward right now? Roughly for your vision. Where I've got, I've got, uh, oh, just stats wise, I've got him at 4100 yards, which is outstanding, a huge upgrade for him. Uh, 25 touchdowns, 12 picks and then not rushing the ball enough. These quarterback, yeah, I think, I think we all kind of see the same thing where it's like he could for cam ward, take a step forward as a passer in some aspects. But the fantasy ceiling will remain capped because he's not going to run the ball the way that we need to to get a top five or six score. So it really comes down to, do I want to trade for him? Yes. But like what are the expectations of what's the cost? That's really the most important thing is like if I'm getting a guy that I at least say I'm in the basketball streets, like he's kind of going as like quarterback 27 or whatever it is. Like he's buried at those types of prices. I am in. But if somebody else took cam ward last year in super flex very highly and they said, this is the guy I know it moving forward. You're probably not getting him in a trade. So for me, it's probably more of like a, if I'm doing a startup draft this off season in a super flex and I can get him as a quarterback too, like I'm into that. But I don't think anybody would be expecting top seven numbers this year or anything like that. Yeah. People invested a very high pick in their super flex leagues and they're just like, I'm going to wait one more year to see what this offense becomes. But yeah, I didn't want to go to the low end outcomes and just give some historical ones because if you're drafted in the top 10 teams are going to feed you, right? Like that's generally speaking the way it goes. But there are, there is a player in the Titans history that was taken fifth overall. Corey Davis and it was not great. Not great as first year. But let's move on. We'll talk about some other other names when we come right back. All right. We're going to do two more quick names here before we finish this episode. Jeremy Bernard, wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Gurmy, taken 47th overall in a startup draft. He feels like one of those dudes you're like, I don't know. Like I guess I'm filling out my bench. We haven't met wide receiver 58. He goes at wide receiver 65 on a couple of other sites. So it's just like no man's land and dynasty. I don't know what this player is. And honestly, looking at these past catchers between Metcalf, Pitman, Bernard, it's hard to say like this guy is going to be the fantasy difference maker that we want is anybody is separate. So my first question for you guys is will Pittsburgh's offense look dramatically different than last year because Aaron Rogers. 67% of his yards came after the catch. They had the worst eight out in the league. And they only ran 11 personnel 38% of the time. That was 31. So in other words, it was a lot of two tight ends. It was a lot of two running backs often where it's like gain well. It's on the field. So is Bernard going to see that field enough in year one to matter for fantasy? And then what does that mean moving for? Those are my like the questions that I'm rolling around in here. So Jason, what do you have him projected for your initial run? My initial run for Jeremy Bernard, I've got him projected for a pretty mediocre 45 and 500 with three touchdowns. So he is, he is just irrelevant. My projection of him as a player was a really genuinely solid and good NFL wide receiver, not a fantasy difference maker, but someone that, you know, if my cardinals have taken him, where he's supposed to go on the draft, they'd be like, okay, that's he should be good. I think it was a, you know, not a bad pick by the Steelers to bring in a third wide receiver behind Metcalf and pitmins. And now all of a sudden you've got a receiving cord that you can spread the ball around to you really did not have that last year. I know we wish they hyper target a DK Metcalf more, but it's also like, well, the defense is hyper focused on DK Metcalf. So you're dumping it off to, you know, Kenneth Gainwell and you really have no one else to throw the ball to. I think this is a much more improved offensive weapon team this year with the addition of pitman and Jeremy, but there's just no path. Metcalf and pitman aren't going away in the next two years and they're not going to be usurped by Bernard. So you're talking about it and there's no quarterback here that can sustain three weapons. If Aaron Rogers comes back, that is the best quarterback they will have this year. And there is no way that current version Aaron Rogers is having a third that his wide receiver three matter for fantasy football. And if Aaron Rogers doesn't come back, it gets worse. Will Howard drew all of these guys are not supporting probably even two wide. Or should maybe not even one wide receiver win. It's kind of split around. So for fantasy purposes to me. I don't. I don't have like I don't I can't even see a high upside avenue. Two injuries ahead of that's that's what I was like, I guess he could see like 18% of the targets. If one of the dudes gets hurt. Yeah. I again, this isn't this isn't an anti Jeremy Bernard, the prospect. His archetype is perfect for this team. He's going to I think he'll be in there. Have some important receptions. Have a couple important touchdowns help this team. But I don't think he's going to help anyone in fantasy. I agree. Yeah. I don't have too much to add the most simplistic way I can think about this is like, do I really want this version of Aaron Rogers wide receiver three for fantasy? And it's an easy no like last year there were times we didn't even want his top weapon at moments, right? Right. So it's like, yeah, it just I think it'll help the Steelers. Don't come you wrong there. I would just be very surprised if he has a rookie season that is meaningful in fantasy outside of a, you know, you're starting like three different flexes and you're 14 team league type situation. I could see myself throwing him in there a couple times this year in a standard type of league. I really would be surprised if he's a startable asset on a routine basis. But, um, yeah, he's a well-rounded player. He'll help the Steelers. I think that's more of a better pick than a foul then for us in fantasy. Yeah. And just to give you a number, I for a lot of these players, you're hoping they break through. But if you're taking in round two of the NFL draft, the average target share in year one is just 13%. So Jason, I see you have him down for 12%. So he basically would be meeting the expectation of what he's supposed to do or what most round two White receivers do. If he hits 15%, you should call that a home run in this here's draft that you took him in the second round of your rookie draft. And just looking like a player that I that came to mind to me was Tyler Boyd. He was taking the second round for the Bengals and saw 16% of the targets was a good NFL player for years. And that is a perfect comp. That is that is a wonderful like Tyler Boyd. Perfect. Yes. Now the the terrible range is like if he's like Jonathan Mingo or Zay Jones guys that are like, okay, I don't know why they were taking the second round. They didn't really see the target share they wanted. They were inefficient. And then their value just just dropped the next year. I mean, those are the two names. Those are good. Zay Jones is a good receiver. Zay Jones is a good NFL receiver. Tyler Boyd is a good NFL receiver. That is the range of outcomes here. Is he Zay Jones? Or is he Tyler Boyd? Tyler Boyd is the upside. Keep that in mind. That is not huge upside. Zay Jones, I think is the median. I think that's what he probably is. And that means that over the course of a career, you will have a couple starts in you where he's in your lineup. I mean, that's, you know, none too good. Was it, I mean, Zay Jones, it's been a while, right? But wasn't his nickname on the show, the spot start. Dude, you're that one year in Jacksonville. That's his official nickname on our website. The spot start. Okay, there you go. So you're you're hoping that someday Jeremy Bernard is the spot is is a spot start. All right. Last one. Just going to knock it out real quick. It's Kenyan Sadeek. We have him as tied in nine in our startup rankings in a super flex. The 108. I can't I don't even think I can go there about the high end range. And I know that the last couple years is something you're bringing up Jason on the overreaction show that we're doing on the main podcast. But it's like all these last couple years of Bowers, LaPorta, Warren, Loveland, Fanon is going to paint this picture of here's the range for this guy in your one. And I don't think we have him anywhere close to that. Even looking at sportsbooks, his receiving arts line is 500 yards and four and a half touchdowns. Yeah, that's that I mean, that's that's great. My my projection for him is 540 yards and four and a half touchdowns. I did not know that about the sportsbook. So I mean, that's we're right in line. Jason is a sportsbook. Let's be honest. Yeah, they're they're they're looking at my stuff and be like, that's true. I was just amazed. Yeah, I mean, you know, when Brock Bowers came in, he came in and was the primary receiving option. He did not come in. Well, first of all, he came in as a much better prospect. College production was fantastic. Whereas Sadeek's is it leaves you wanting. But one of these guys is coming in behind Garrett Wilson and sharing another first round wide receiver who works the same area of the field that you do very tough sledding for me to imagine a great year one for Sadeek. I don't know is there a world where maybe he's a seven touchdown guy with Gino and Gino just loves him and he you know, is such a physical freak that he breaks our expectation. I mean, he's drafted to have high expectations. That's how many how many touchdowns are we going to get from this team? And then you start passing them out and you're like, okay, let's say breeze gets three receiving touchdowns. Garrett Wilson gets five to six Omar Cooper, you know, gets about five total Mason Taylor has three Mason tailors in the UFL like that like those kind of things. What poor Mason. I've heard some people make this argument, which I don't like I want to leave my mind open to it. I think it is a very, very slim argument. People are saying like Frank right. He is love tight ends in his schemes. Frank right is the right is not going to be the offensive coordinator moving forward. And I think the coaching staff will be turned over in a year or two. Like that's where I see this going. So I'm not putting any stock really in scheme usage this year and all that sort of stuff. This is just a raw talent who is highly athletic, but needs time in the NFL. So I would be so surprised if Gino supports Garrett Wilson, a first-gen wide receiver and a tight end and Breeze Hall. And they have enough touchdowns for us to really care on a routine basis. Not saying city can't have a game or two here or there and you know, show some wild moments on tape. I would just be very surprised if it's consistent the way that we have seen from other rookie tight ends. So I lean more towards the median to lower end of expectation here, but I'm happy to be wrong. I mean, that would be fun if Gino resurrected from what happened last year and was good for fantasy, but it's just hard to see it. It's stuff I looked at some other tight ends that were taken this early in the draft. TJ Hawkinson. All right. His rookie year. He only ran a route on percent of the snaps. It was like they had other tight ends that were in the mix that were still doing work and we and as much as we make vitamin A's Taylor, he's going to be a part of this team's, you know, snaps and what they do. Vernon Davis, who might be the best physical comp that you can do. Yeah, he is the best comp. I think nobody's had quite the combine since Vernon Davis until speak. Yeah. Vernon Davis, who became incredible for fantasy. Okay. Year one, he had 20 receptions for 265 yards and three touchdowns. It's like it's just this. You have Eric Ebron on this list. No, but I need to. Eric, I mean, that's another one, right? Eric Ebron picked 10th overall in the his rookie season. He had 25 receptions for 248 yards. Yeah. I think still went on to side. someday be the tight end for 500 yards and five touchdowns is is a good rookie year for the tight in position, which, you know, people say all the time, like, this is not just for fantasy them adjusting. They're adjusting in so many other ways to real life NFL blocking everything else. So I know we're probably pessimistic. I feel like across the board and people want to get excited about Cedeque. Yeah. It's, I will say if you want to be excited for Cedeque, this isn't a year one fantasy star. This is simply is a young guy who's a super athlete. You've got a team that is going to have high draft capital. They've got what like three first next year. They're going to have their own, which could be the number one or at least should be a top five pick in a deep quarterback draft class. And like Bet said, I think they will probably have a complete turnover on the coaching staff. And when they have a lot of key components, a good looking rookie pick coming in at quarterback, you're going to and you're you're in New York. I think you'll have the opportunity to get a good coach. So all of a sudden, 2027 rolls around. You could have a franchise rookie quarterback tied to him with a good coach coming in. And there is a path for a really bright fantasy future. It's why I'm still taking him ahead of the tight end. I like so much better in stowers. I'll still take Cedeque higher than NFL did. I'm not going to get too cute with it. But rookie year, you just can't expect what has been happening the last few years with rookie breakouts. It's not it's not set up for him that way. I'm going to call my shot Nate Shield House offensive coordinator for the Rams next year head coach of the jets. Okay. It's an early shot. It's it's it's it's going to go there. It's happened. Yep. That's going to do it for this episode. Make sure you check out everything we have in the ultimate draft kit ultimate draft kit.com. And we'll be back next week talking more dynasty. See you. Thanks for listening to the fantasy footballers dynasty podcast. If you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level, check out the fantasy footballers.com.