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Risers & Fallers from April to May! Jose Soriano Regression Alert! (6/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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Risers & Fallers from April to May! Jose Soriano Regression Alert! (6/2 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

The podcast discusses recent pitching struggles for Jose Soriano and Landen Roupp. Soriano has been plagued by walks, issuing 7 in his latest start against the Rockies, giving him a 7.5 walks-per-nine rate over his last four outings. However, his underlying skills remain elite, including a 14% swinging strike rate and a 50% ground ball rate. Roupp similarly struggled, allowing 8 runs and 5 walks in 4 innings, though his expected ERA and FIP are solid. Both pitchers are not must-starts but are worth rostering. Dillon Dingler is highlighted as a catcher with 13 home runs and strong expected stats, making him a top option at a thin position. Jackson Chourio is hitting the ball harder this year, with a higher barrel rate, suggesting a power breakout is imminent despite only 2 homers so far. Andrew Vaughn is hitting well but is in a timeshare with Jake Bauers, limiting his playing time and fantasy relevance to deep leagues. Finally, with Elly De La Cruz landing on the IL, the Reds called up prospect Edwin Arroyo, but his high chase rate and strikeout issues make him a risky add. Alternatives like Dansby Swanson are recommended for shallower leagues, while speed-only options like Nasim Nunez are noted for those needing steals.

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Jose Soriano and Landen Roupp's Recent Pitching Woes Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. This is welcome. Got a fantasy question? e-mail [email protected]. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy because reality. Now here's Frank, Scott and Chris. Speaker 2 Hey there. Welcome in to fantasy baseball today and welcome to June. Season is flying on by. I am Frank Staple. I'm back and I'm joined by Scott White. Today on the show we have the biggest value risers and fallers from April to May. I looked at the biggest changes and OPS and ERA from month to month. We'll talk about some of those names, Elly De La Cruz, replacements, another prospect promotion from his very team, Edwin Arroyo. So we'll talk to all that. Scott, I'm here. I just had somebody hit me up on Twitter and ask, are you still on FBT? Yes, I'm still here. I'm on the show. Speaker 3 You missed two shows and it's like you're never coming back. It's it's, it's like the the dog waiting at the door whenever you leave, thinking you're never going to return. Who knows? Who knows, maybe that guy hadn't listened for three months and happened to tune in for a show. You weren't there and was like, huh, what happened to Frank? Did they replace them? You never know. You never know what's going on with people. Speaker 2 I'm here. You guys held it down. I listened to the weekend recap. Great job, Fernando Mania enjoyed that. So we're here. We'll do it live. Let's jump in. Speaker 3 Oh my goodness. Unbelievable. Speaker 2 All right, players of the night, we got to talk about Jose Soriano. Scotty, you are first up. Speaker 3 All right, Yeah, Jose Soriano, another stinker. Another stinker. Even against the Rockies away from Coors Field, you thought he'd get back on track. Got even worse, mainly because he walks 77 guys, seven walks. You're not going to have a good start when you do that. And that's really been the whole source of the problem for Jose Soriano during this rough patch. It was seven walks in this one that now gives him over the last four, over his last four starts, 7.5 walks per nine innings. Just really bad control for a stretch here and otherwise. Otherwise, things still look good. I mentioned last time in the that was a four walk outing against the Tigers. He still had 15 swinging strikes. He had 22 swinging strikes in this start. So you know, was still throwing. The four seamer was still throwing. The splitter actually got 4 swinging strikes on the slider. Where did that come from? Continues to expand his arsenal here. His swinging strike rate for the season is up around 14%. It's elite. Previous years it'd have been 11 percent, 10% or so. There's still that big leap in terms of how good of a bat miss or Jose Soriano is. And you know, still one of the best ground ball pitchers in the majors with over a 50% rate there. Even with all the walk problems he's had recently, up to 4.5 walks per nine for the season. That's high. Last year it was 4.2 walks per 9 and it's kind of always been high for Jose Soriano. So I, I, what I'm trying to stress here is even though things have been rough for him recently, even though he's had these walk issues recently, there are still clear improvements. It's not like he's reverted to being Jose Soriano of the past, who was pretty fringy for fantasy purposes, basically just a streamer type. I don't think he's reverting to that. He's got this expanded arsenal. He's way better bat miss or he just has some of the past control problems like those haven't gone away. Just because he's missing more bats now doesn't mean the control problems have gone away. Means he's going to have rough stretches like this means he's probably less than a must start pitcher, but I think he's must roster. I think you're going to want to start him more often than not moving forward. I wouldn't lose heart in Jose Soriano here. Speaker 2 Well, that was the next question. I do think we have to recalibrate a little bit just because the beginning of the season was so good for Jose Soriano. Now over his last seven starts, 517 ERA, 159 WHIP, 25 walks, over 38 in a third innings. That's just a massive number and he gets the Dodgers later this week. So obviously don't feel great about that. I think obviously if you're in a weekly lineup league, you're locked in. I think you just kind of. Speaker 3 Yeah, he definitely started two start Soriano. So yeah, you're locked in in that scenario. Speaker 2 You say your prayers, you hope for the best on that one, but then against the Rays next week. I I agree. I don't think he's a must start. I think you just kind of have to to weigh your options here. Speaker 3 Yeah, and I'm sure there will be a stretch where he feels like a bus start again. But I I never came all the way to saying, oh, Jose Soriano is an ace now. When he got off to that tremendous start, I thought he was better. I thought he was must roster, but I think we're seeing the downside now and we'll see the upside again. But right now we're reminded why. OK, he's better, but he's not an. Speaker 2 Ace, yeah, I think the highest I got him up to was around SP30, but now I I think he drops back down a little bit, probably somewhere in that like SP-40 to SP50 range. I think, you know, SP4 type. And again, not a lock it in must start pitcher there with Jose Soriano. I do have another name I just wanted to mention someone else was getting a lot of it back right now. And that is Landon Roop, who got crushed at the Brewers 4 innings, eight hits, eight runs, five walks to 4 strikeouts here. Did have 11 whiffs on 96 pitches, which was all right, but this was just a flurry of bad things happening. Struggled to throw strikes. And then when he did, he got hammered. It was 10 hard hits allowed through just 50% of his pitches for strikes. And over his last six starts, it's a 628 ERA and a 181 WHIP. So what are you at Scott on Landon Roop? Is it a similar conversation as Soriano? Still a must roster, but not a must start pitcher. Speaker 3 Yeah, I mean, it's a shame both of these guys did this in a two start week when nobody in their right mind would have sat them, but it is what it is. That's baseball for you. I will just reiterate that coming into this start, Landon Roop average exit velocity was 86.8 mph, ground ball rate was 51.6%. Expected ERA was three O 3, FIP was 266. Like everything looked good. He just had a start where he couldn't locate and that has been his biggest problem this year. That's not as bad as Jose Soriano, but it's also been Landon Roof's biggest problem. And it just got exacerbated in this start, I feel like. But there's still so much to like here that I wouldn't I wouldn't abandoned ship on based on this start. Speaker 2 I think they're pretty similar too, right, Because they, they both have this wicked curveball. Soriano has a little bit more of an extensive pitch mix, but they, you know, they both struggle to get those pitches in the zone because there's so much movement on like the curveball or the, or the splitter for Soriano in his case. So I think they're going to struggle at times for the same reasons because of control. But when they're right, you know, they're both getting whiffs, they're both getting a lot of round balls. But I I do think we just kind of have to recalibrate our thoughts on those two in particular with Soriano and Landon Roop. Dillon Dingler's Unexpected Power Surge at Catcher Do want to talk about my player of the night here. That is Dillon Dingler, who I cut my notes for him and then I think I forgot to paste them. So that wouldn't be great. Whoops. And they're all gone. So all right, we're just going to have to figure this out on the fly here. But Dylan Dingler had a two home run game and I wanted to highlight him once again because we mentioned his name a few times. Even as a player of the night throughout the course of the season, his expected stats, his stack has data has been great all year. Like he has thirteen home runs already this season in just 54 games. He hit thirteen home runs all of last year in 126 games. So that just goes to show you the gains that he's made this year in terms of barrelling the ball up. Expected stats look a lot better. And this is just your reminder to keep the faith. You know, I, I know he hasn't basically lived up to those expected numbers so far, Scott, but I, I do think better days are coming as the weather starts to heat up here for Dillon Dingler and we just saw that here on Monday. Speaker 3 Yeah, I I mean, he has underperformed the expected stats. He's still a catcher with 13 home runs. You know, it's it's been plenty valuable, just as he is. So, well, hang on a second. Is it is it more home runs now or is that the right now? Yeah, 13 with the two he hit today. Thirteen home runs. So, and I've been looking at catcher lately. I've had a need develop in a couple leagues where I had Drake Baldwin. Obviously that's been going on a few weeks now. Struggled to fill the spot even in A1 catcher league losing Drake Baldwin. Obviously there was a ton of depth at catcher coming in, but enough are on the injured list right now. Some others, like Carter Jensen, have underperformed to make them. Not necessarily somebody you want to be starting in one catcher league. Not surprising given the physical demands of that position. You know, a third of the way into the season now that it would have attrition would have taken its toll. But clearly we're at a point where you can't afford to be so picky at catcher that you can pass up a guy like Dinkler. Speaker 2 Yeah. And his roster rate is all the way up to 92% on CBS. It is 70% on Yahoo. So a lot of those formats are R1 catcher leagues. I get it. I mean, the position started out so fruitful, but we did get, you know, we lost a bunch of guys to injury. Some guys haven't really performed so far this year. Salvador Perez. So, yeah, I've, I've moved Dylan Dingler up to inside my top 12 or right outside my top 12 a couple weeks ago. And I'm sticking with it just based on on those underlying numbers. And he's actually performed quite well. So, yeah, shout out to Dylan Dingler. I do think much better days are coming ahead for him. And that was here was a sign of that on Monday. Jackson Chourio's Power Gains and Andrew Vaughn's Playing Time Want to give a shout out here to the Brewers, the Oh my goodness gracious lineup of the night. They put up 16 runs on eighteen hits, no homers, but wanted to highlight two names in particular. We haven't really talked about Jackson Trio being 1. He went 2 for four with two walks, two runs and three RBI. He returned from the Ham a bone injury on May 4th, but we're just not really seeing much power yet. It's only two home runs. He's hitting 276, five stolen bases so far, but you dig in Scott and he's hitting the ball much harder than before. The barrel rate is up so far this year. I don't know if there's an opportunity to buy, but if there is, I would definitely look into doing that right now with Jackson Trio. Speaker 3 Yeah, I'm not sure there's much more I can add there. He's the, the one reason you might have felt discouraged about him his first two years. I mean, he was a 2020 guy with the 270 batting average both times. So, you know, I, I don't even know that anyone could have felt discouraged with him. But the one thing you might have but felt discouraged about was that he was running subpar exit velocities, that that's not true anymore. His launch angle's only been higher this year, so you would expect some of that hard contact, more of that hard contact to, to turn into home runs than has actually happened so far. The strikeout rate is up this year. I guess that's something you could worry about, but it's obviously over a small enough sample that I don't really worry about it. Yeah, I, I think Jack Centurio is still Jack Chourio at worst. And with those exit velocities being up, that barrel rate being up, there are signs that maybe he's going to be even better. Speaker 2 Yeah, just a quick note on the strikeout rate at 28%, his own contact is actually the best of his career and his with rate is right in line with the rest of his career. So don't worry about the strikeouts. I think that will improve over time. And with the barrel rate and the hard contact, a lot of his fly balls have gone to the center and opposite field so far. I think that's why we haven't seen Jackson Trio maximize his power output yet. But if he continues to hit the ball that hard, I do think we're gonna we're going to get like a power bench here. Coming soon for Jackson Cheerio. The other name is Andrew Vaughn who went 2 for four with two RBI. He is hitting 354 on the season but just one home run and 21 games. He like Cheerio returned on May 4th, but he has started just 16 of 24 games since coming back. He, all eight that he set out have been against right-handed pitching 36% rostered. So it's not like, you know, he's he's not rostered in a ton of leagues, but in in leagues where he is rostered. Like does he need to be Andrew Vaughn if he's not playing every day? Speaker 3 I I would say he doesn't need to be rostered in mini leagues that there are probably some on the deeper end where he does need to be rostered. Maybe. What did you say his roster rate was on CBS? Speaker 2 36%. Speaker 3 36 Honestly, that sounds about right. That sounds about right in terms of just knowing the breakdown of league formats on CBS to be about rostered in rostered in about 1/3 of leagues. Makes sense for Andrew Vaughn. I think if he came into more bats then he would be an attractive pick up and and much shallower leagues. But Jake Bowers has been great as well. He needs his playing time. Unless they're going to make Bowers a full time outfielder, there's not room for both of them because obviously Christian Yelich is occupying DH. Bowers has been getting some starts in the outfield, but yeah, he'd have to displace S Freelit completely. Or maybe Freelit can move over to center and and they could bump Garrett Mitchell. Doesn't sound like a terrible plan to me, but it's not something that the Brewers have been willing to do yet. I imagine their outfield defense would take a hit, and that may just not be something they're willing to stomach. So for now, this timeshare continues between Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bowers. And that is especially bad news for Vaughn since he's the weak side hitter of the two. Speaker 2 Yeah, it is unfortunate, too. I liked him as a deep sleeper coming into the year. He looked really good down the stretch last year. It's just this time crunch, this roster crunch with the Brewers, it's it's making it hard to to get Andrew Vaughn in there every day. So yeah, and deeper leagues. I think he's a hold. But like, honestly, anything 12 team roto or shallower probably doesn't need to be rostered. Before we hit our first break to say a reminder to like this video and subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven't already. Let's take that break and we'll be back right after this. Elly De La Cruz on IL, Edwin Arroyo Called Up Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Let's hit the news Notes. And as expected, Elie De La Cruz was officially placed in the IL with that right hamstring strain. The hope is that he'll be back within two to four weeks. As a result, they called up one of their top prospects, Edwin Arroyo, who is 22 years old. He was performing very well at AAA, hitting 32311 homers, 9 steals, 945 OPS. He did start at second base here on Monday was Matt McClain at shortstop. Arroyo. Arroyo went one for four with a run scored and three strikeouts. Before we get to other LE replacements, Scott, what is your interest level here in Edwin Arroyo? Speaker 3 It's fairly low, I don't think there's any reason to bother with them in leagues that don't require an extra middle infield spot. So you know, pretty much just standard Roto is where you're looking to add Arroyo and I'd be fine with adding him there. Obviously you take a chance on upside. He'd never shown much power prior to this year. So it's, it's been kind of a breakout season at AAA for him. And the exit velocity readings are strong enough that I'm, I think it's legitimate. But the, the fact he was hitting Edwin Arroyo was hitting 323 at AAA, that that's the part I question because his chase rate is verging on 40% there. So I think Major League pitchers are going to be able to exploit that tendency to chase more than minor league pitchers did. And we saw him strike out three times at his debut. So there are some tools here for Arroyo for sure. And he should have an open path playing time with Ellie de la Cruz out of the picture. But I I'm anticipating enough struggles that it it's gonna be hard to start him in most leagues. Obviously if you go deep enough in the middle infield pool, you gotta you gotta take a chance on the upside, even if there are some doubts. Speaker 2 All right, so let's talk about some other Elie De La Cruz replacements here. I think in shallower leagues, I looked at names between 65 and 75% rostered on CBS. You have Dan Dansby Swanson, Brooks Lee, Ezekiel Duran and Colt Emerson. I think out of that group of four, I mean, typically I would go with Swanson. I know he's slowed down a lot in May Obviously the ones performing best. Duron has, you know, he's a hit machine right now. He went three for four with an RBI on Monday. And even Colt Emerson, he's like quietly been OK. He hit his third home run and he's got like a, you know, OPS over 800, maybe 900. But who's your favorite of that group? Scott Swanson, Brooksley Duron and Colt Emerson. Speaker 3 I think they're all probably more usable than Arroyo. I know Dansby Swanson's batting average is terrible. It's 183. Cubs didn't play today, right? I don't think they did. Yeah, they didn't play today. So it's still 183 for Dansby Swanson. Drangely, in points leagues, he's still been pretty productive. He's still averaging about as many points per game as Trey Turner, who I know has been kind of disappointing. But Even so, Xander Bogart's Swanson's pretty close to him in terms of point per game average. So like there's there's he's been pretty useful even with that batting average. And I expect the batting average to go up just based on the track record. It's not like his strikeout rate is bloated. It's not like his his bat has slowed way down. I think, I think there's definitely some correction coming for Swanson. So he would probably be my top choice. But I understand if you're looking at what he's doing with that batting average and like, I want to do something different. I don't know, maybe Brooks Lee. I know the Twins had good matchups this week. If you're in a daily lineup league, that could still be of some use to you. There are some questionable parts about Brooks Lee's skill set for sure. But nonetheless, he entered the week on like a 20 Homer, 85 RBI pace. So he's been pretty useful. Speaker 2 Replacements here in medium sized leads, you go a little bit deeper. There's Andres Jimenez, there's Ezekiel Tovar, JP Crawford, Anthony Volpi. Not nearly as exciting as a group here. Scott, anyone stand out from those 4? Jimenez, Tovar, JP, Crawford, Volpi. Speaker 3 JP Crawford isn't bad. He's not bad. Speaker 2 All right. And if you need just speed and nothing else, obviously a lot of people who have Ellie on their team are depending on him to deliver speed. I think Nassim Nunez just makes a lot of sense. He's not going to give you anything else. But if you need speed. There he goes. And then in the deepest of leagues, we mentioned Arroyo is out there in a bunch and then Hassan Kim that we're talking about 15 team roto leagues. Speaker 3 Honestly, Jorge Matteo might be better than Hassan Kim. He's been getting he's he's been playing more than Kim lately. And justifiably, looking at their comparative numbers, we probably should have talked about that on Sunday's show. But of course, there's a lot to get to. If Jorge Mateo is basically the Braves starting shortstop now. Well, he's batting 316 with four homers and seven steals and just 84 plate appearances. So not saying he's going to sustain that pace, but he's been youthful in fantasy before, and obviously that's a good line up to be a part of. So Jorge Mateo, I might prefer Jorge Mateo to Edwin Arroyo even now. I think if if you're looking at like Nassim Nunez, OK, that's that's probably someone you would prioritize behind Arroyo. You would take Arroyo over somebody like Nunez. But I guess just the biggest question with Matteo was how much do you trust the playing time he's been getting lately? How likely would Walt Weiss be to go right back to Hassan Kim if if Jorge Matteo has a couple hitless games? That's fair. I don't know, but I am intrigued if he does remain a regular part of the Braves lineup. Speaker 2 And especially in leagues that deep, it's just anybody who has a pulse. And Matteo actually does have some upside. It's just whether or not he's going to play. And he has started 5 game straight. So we'll see what happens there. Again, LA De La Cruz out two to four weeks. And those are the replacements for every size league you can imagine. Latest Injury Updates and Prospect Promotions Across MLB Terex Google worked 4 innings in a simulated game here on Monday. He built up to 64 pitches. Sounds like his next step will be a minor league rehab outing, but let's see how he bounces back. Zach Netto was scratched in the lineup Monday. He's still dealing with side effects from that home plate collision on Saturday night. Shohei Otani will pitch and hit again on Wednesday. Let's see if he can make it 3 pitching starts in a row where he leads off the game with a Homer because that's what he does. Corey Seeger will be in a minor league rehab assignment at AA on Tuesday. He's working his way back from a back injury. Chase Burns was scratched from his start Monday due to an illness. He'll make his next start Wednesday against the Royals. Moona Takamurakami was given a PRP injection in his right hamstring hoping to help that four to six week timeline. Michael Garcia has missed two straight with a strained right hamstring. I guess it's somewhat positive that they haven't put him on the IL just yet. It still could happen, but as we saw, Elly De La Cruz went on the IL and so far Michael Garcia has not. Brandon Woodruff will throw a three up live BP on Wednesday. He is expected to throw around 60 pitches in that one. Shane Bieber made another rehab start at single A on Sunday. He allowed five earned runs over 2 and 1/3. He got his pitch count up to 49 and averaged 92.1 mph on his fastball, which is down slightly from last year. He remains 60% rostered and a name you could look to stash if you have any IL spots. Matthew Boyd made a rehab start at AAA on Sunday. He allowed three runs over 4 innings. He belt up to 63 pitches and it's working his way back from meniscus surgery in his left knee. He'll either make one more rehab start or start for the Cubs this weekend. Scott, who do you prefer to stash, Shane Bieber or Matthew Boyd? Speaker 3 I was just putting together IL stash rankings before we started recording, so I am prepared to answer this. And the answer is Matthew Boyd, though they're right next to each other. They're right next to each other. The big reason Boyd is ahead is because I really don't know what to expect from Bieber given the nature of the injury where it's like, does he is he just kind of staving off surgery here with the way this elbow injury has lingered? For what it's worth, his last rehab start happened to be at the one in the one league other than AAA where they have stat cast set up and the velocity was fine. Bieber was throwing about as hard as he was last year in that that low a start. So I guess that's a good sign. Obviously the results were bad, but it was a rehab start and you would expect there's some rest going along with that in addition to obviously success. Competition wasn't the main goal of that start so much. It's just building up. So we can't really take that much from the rehab start for Bieber. But the velocity look good. I think he's worth stashing. I just rather stash Matthew Boyd. Speaker 2 I would agree. Mick Abel is scheduled to face hitters in a live BP on Thursday. Bailey Ober was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain and will be shut down from throwing for 10 to 14 days. Glaber Torres could be activated from the IL on Tuesday. He's been out since May 2nd with a left oblique strain. Dylan Cruz was out again Monday after a hit by pitch on his hand this weekend. The hope is that he will return on Tuesday. Chandler Simpson left Monday night's game with a cut on his mouth, apparently. I didn't see it, but his helmet fell off and like, caused the cut somehow, so it doesn't sound like it's too bad for him. Lars Newbar is hoping to return Friday against the Reds. He is 7 for 27 so far in 10 rehab games. 2 homers, 931 OPS, 8% rostered Scott. I think it's some of those deeper 5 outfielder leagues. If Newbar is out there I I would be interested in adding him and just seeing where it goes. Speaker 3 Yeah, we, we can't. We just can't quit Lars Nupar, can we? With a name like Lars Nupar, how can you give up? Speaker 2 You can't. You can't. It's. Speaker 3 Obviously not just the name that attracts us to him, though he is. He is my favorite player whose name sounds like an impulse buy at the IKEA checkout line. I am thinking also Lars Nupar is somebody who could matter in five outfielder leagues. And he if you play in such a format and you need outfield help, it's worth a shot. It's worth a shot. What's dead may never die. Speaker 2 All right, and last couple of news items here. The Marlins promoted pitching prospect Carson Milbrand 2 AAA. He was awesome at AA. And Scott, I know just yesterday's podcast you speculated with all the injuries that have happened to Marlins, maybe they could be aggressive here. They did call Milbrand up to AAA, but who knows if he has like 3 or 4 awesome starts. Maybe he's up with the Marlins soon. Speaker 3 Yeah, I think he's got a deep enough arsenal for it. He's I think he's 22, so it's not like he'd be too young for that opportunity. It's just a question of are they willing to start the clock on Carson Milbrandt this year? I I think he might be one of the top five pitching prospects in baseball already. I know he was basically a no name coming into the year unless you're you, you really go deep into the prospect pool. But he has definitely made a name for himself. And if he dominates a AAA like he did a AA, it's going to be hard for the Marlins to keep him down, especially with all the pitching needs they have. Speaker 2 All right, last couple items here, the Giants option, Jesus Rodriguez back to AAA and I am seeing now that Josh Naylor left Monday night's game after hitting a home run with back spasms. So hopefully nothing too serious there with Josh Naylor. Analyzing Biggest OPS Risers and Fallers from April to May The biggest value changes from April to May. So I wanted to, you know, keep it pretty simple looking at OPS gainers and droppers, fallers and then ERA risers and fallers as well. So on the hitting side, side, I, I set the minimums here. You needed at least 50 plate appearances in each month to qualify. And so we will start with some of the OPS gainers, some of the biggest I have Blaze Alexander, Harrison Bader, Rafael Devers, Colton Couser, Mike Yastremsky. We'll stop there for a second. Obviously one of these names is not like the other. That is Rafael Devers, who we did show some concern about earlier on in April, but back in now in May, or I guess you know, now that May has passed, bounce back in a big way. 949 OPSI don't really think any of these other names matter, right? Scott Big OPS Jumps plays Alexander Harrison Bader, Colton Couser and Mike Kastremsky. Speaker 3 The one I was hesitating on is Colton Couser because I want to see how much, Yeah, you're right. That's what I was looking up is how much he plays. But it's not. It's not even every other day for the Orioles. So yeah, he probably doesn't matter. And I don't think Devers is just like worry free at this point. He's totally back to being Rafael Devers. He might be Rafael Devers from last year. But even even as the production has improved in May, that strikeout rate has been 28%, which is still very high. I, I, I don't think the old Devers is coming back like that. That the prime Devers, who was borderline first round pick in fantasy. I, I, I think he's going to run low batting averages, or at least average batting averages. The power might be enough to make up for it, but obviously the venue's working against him there in terms of how many home runs he hits. I think he's good enough to be a top ten first baseman, but I don't think he's going to threaten to be a top five first baseman rest of way when obviously the the old Devers would have done that. Speaker 2 I have 5 other big OPS gainers from April to May Jaron Duran, Alec Bohm, Michael Bush, Brent Rooker and Ronald Lacuna. I know you guys spoke about Akuna yesterday but man, just finishing the month in style right? A bunch of home runs there, a nice little barrage there from Ronald Lacuna, Brent Rooker, the OPS still lagging a lot. I mean, he was so bad in April and he had the oblique injury. It was 764 OPS in May. So like, obviously we still need to see more from Brent Rooker, but hopefully he is trending up. One name here that we haven't talked too much about is Alec Boehm. And earlier on in the season, you know, he was dealing with a lot of off field stuff like this whole kind of like lawsuit that's going on between him and his parents, just like a very weird situation. But in May, Alec Bom pretty much looked like Alec Bom. So I I I think your expectation should be Alec Bom esque production from this day forward. Speaker 3 Yeah, I would agree. And I didn't really see enough even at his worst to think he was lost cause at least in corner infield leagues like was keeping the faith on Bom didn't drop him in any of those. So basically like the roto lineup leagues, I didn't drop him in those. And I think I think that's turning out to be a good decision. I am not totally sure what to make of Rooker since you brought him up and you mentioned, OK, May was better than April, but it still wasn't what we're expecting to see from Rooker. You know, it's he's 31, he's 31. I I think because he was such a late bloomer, people think of him as younger than that, but he's not. He's 31 and let's see it. Let's see how he's doing on fastballs. 171 batting average on fastballs with a swinging strike rate over 16%. It was 8 1/2% the swinging strike rate on fastballs last year, 16% this year. Those are some discouraging signs. I'm not riding them off, but that's not what I want to see from a 31 year old who is suddenly striking out a ton and not producing at the level anybody expected. Speaker 2 Moving over to the OPS droppers from April to May, the top five here, Moises by Esteros. My goodness, I didn't realize it was this bad. Is OPS in April was over 1000, in May it was 358. What happened there? Edouard Julian, Illinois Demaro Vargas, Daniel Schneeman and Saya Suzuki, the two names I did want to highlight here. Illinois Demaro Vargas, who obviously had that crazy April. I think we always kind of expected him to take a step back. I think in most leagues, like you could probably drop him. It always felt like a flash in the pan type thing and then say Suzuki while you're talking about Vargas, I'm just going to look at him a little bit further to to see what what really went wrong with him so far in May. But what do you think about dropping Vargas after his his bad May? Speaker 3 Well, I'm not opposed to it. In shallower leagues I have run into an issue at second base. I know second base has gotten better, but if you're just talking about what's available on the waiver wire, even in 12 team leagues with no middle infield spot, it's it's not it's not like there are a lot of great alternatives if you're already if you're already like committed to Vargas, like you've been starting at second base. And OK, so you could do the April May breakdown. But if you look at season, the season as a whole for Illinois tomorrow, Vargas, his expected batting average is still 292. It's still 94th percentile. His pull air rate is still twice what it was last year. His strikeout rate is still only 10%. Like he could weather this and still end up being a productive player. I don't think we're going to see the April version again. That was obviously ill tomorrow. Vargas playing over his head. But like, there are still some Luis Arise with more power qualities here in the Ildamaro Vargas profile that if you don't need to free up that roster spot, if you don't have a great alternative for second base, maybe you just stick it out a little longer. Speaker 2 What if I told you that his expected numbers for May Ildamaro Vargas? It was a 245 xba and A317X slug. Speaker 3 I mean, that's understandable given how much everything else went down. But if we're, again, we're just looking at the larger sample of two months rather than one months, it still looks pretty good. So I, I don't know, I, I, I think obviously I don't know what's going to happen. I think it's totally reasonable to be worried about Vargas. I'm just saying you got to have a good enough alternative because otherwise it may turn out to be a mistake dropping him. Speaker 2 Yeah, say it's a Suzuki. So I mentioned a 551 OPS in the month for him. Looks like he just he's not hitting the ball hard like that is what's happening right now. 88.3 average exit velocity, 7% barrel rate, just not hitting the ball hard enough right now. But we're seeing that from a lot of the Cubs. I don't know if it's like what's going on with that, You know, their offenses kind of lag behind in May. Would you look to buy, say, a Suzuki right now if anyone was, if anyone was selling? Speaker 3 Yeah, I would. We've seen, we've seen some low lows from Suzuki before and he manages to come out of it. He always has before. Obviously he looked great in April. So I don't, I don't feel like it's all just gone away, like he's lost all of his talent OR anything. I I think Suzuki is somebody you could buy low on. Speaker 2 Five other OPS droppers from April to May. Adly Ruchman from 1067 down to 636. Christian Vasquez, like I didn't even know he had enough plate appearances in April to qualify, but he did. Carlos Cortez from 11/28 down to 738. Jose Fernandez has fallen off. And Dansby Swanson, who we spoke about earlier, first, Carlos Cortez Scott, do you, is he someone that you think you absolutely need to hold onto? And then I also did just want to mention Ozzie Alby's is close on this list. He went from nine O 8 in April to 594. So I I kind of wanted to lump him and Adlib Rutchman together because they're just like, you know, veteran guys that we didn't know exactly if they would bounce back this year. It looked like they were earlier on, but now coming back down to earth a little bit. So Carlos Cortez, you drop him and then quick thoughts on Adley and and Ozzy. Alby's here. Speaker 3 I mean, you go to Adley Rushman stack has paged a lot of red. Ozzy Alby's isn't Alby Alby's Ozzy Alby's never has a lot of red. It's worth noting. I don't know, I mean, for players with the kind of track record they do, and I know obviously they were disappointing last year, but they're there still was a lot of optimism for both of them coming in and their overall season numbers still look good. You know, it, it's kind of just baseball that you have some good months and some bad months, so you don't want to just put everything on the most recent month. I I think I would keep the faith in Rushman and Albees. I don't think there's a great place to go otherwise if you don't keep the faith in them. But I I also don't think there is legitimate reason to worry about them other than just, oh, look, they were bad last year. Maybe April was a fake out, maybe, but bad months happen. And again, their full season numbers still look pretty good. Carlos Cortez, his full season numbers still look awesome, but yeah, he hasn't been doing much recently. There's no track record there. Some impressive minor league numbers, but no track record obviously for him. And he's not a full time player. So if you wanted to cut Carlos Cortez loose, I want to have a problem with it. I still think he's pretty interesting. I still think there are going to be plenty of weeks where I'm putting him in my 10 sleeper hitters if the matchups are there for the Athletics, if there are enough, right, He's on the schedule. He was this past week, Carlos Cortez, but but he's he's obviously not the same level of player as as an Ozzy Albeezer and Adley Rushman. Speaker 2 I did want to quickly mention for Adley Ruchman, despite the numbers being down in May, it was a three O 4 expected batting average 496 X slug. So definitely, definitely keep the faith with Adley Ruchman. It just feels like he he had a pretty unlucky May there for again for Adlib Ruchman. Let's take a quick break. When we return, we'll quickly run through the ERA gainers and followers from April to May. We'll do that right after this. Examining Top ERA Gainers and Droppers from April to May Welcome back in fantasy baseball today. Quick look at the value changes from April to May and a looking at the ERA gainers here. So minimum 20 innings in each month. Both April and May, we saw Kyle Freeland went from a 3:48 to 12:46. Eric Fetty is on this league list, Jack Kohanowitz, Jose Soriano who we spoke a lot about. And then there was also Sandy Alcantara, who I will mention had a 7 inning, 3 run quality start here. We've talked a lot about Sandy lately. Scott and I, I, I think we've pretty much laid it out. There's a lack of strikeouts. He'll have solid starts from like a points league volume perspective, but there's definitely going to be some clunkers mixing in there as well. Speaker 3 Yeah, I think he's must roster, but as must roster pitchers go, he's kind of a matchup display. Obviously lined up for two starts this week, so it was a good time to start him and the first one went well. Hopefully the second one will too. You know, it's, it's kind of, I, I think Sandy Alcantoro's better than Seth Lugo, but it's kind of that same type of pitcher for fantasy and you'll want to handle him similarly. Speaker 2 A couple of their names here again, ERA gainers from Able to May Jansen, Junk, Zach Gallon, Robbie Ray, Jacob degrom, Noah McClain and Show to Imanaga. I know you guys spoke about McClain and Imanaga on yesterday's show. Jacob degrom giving up a lot more hard contact this year. His fastball in particular is getting hit really hard. Did have a solid outing here on Monday. It was 5 shutout innings. A bunch of whiffs in that game, but Scott, has your expectation for Jacob degrom changed at all with his his fastball getting hit hard and just giving up more home runs so far this season? Speaker 3 And personally, my expectation hasn't changed much at all. I I was probably lower than the consensus on him coming in. I'm not sure. I had him in my top 12 starting pitchers and I still think he's borderline there. Technically in my top 12 because others have moved out. One thing I have been pleased with as far as degrom goes is that he's been working in, he's been working deeper into games than I thought he would. I thought the Rangers would continue to be very careful with his innings, but five, he only went five innings in this good start against the Cardinals Monday, but five of his previous six starts were six innings or more. And you can't really ask for much better than that, particularly from a from a pitcher in his late 30s. So I I would say degrom is still must start borderline ace in in my eyes. And yeah, there's not really an and I just kept talking for some reason. That's that's it. End of sentence. Speaker 2 You just give me a yes or no on Robbie Ray. Do you think he is droppable? Speaker 3 Yes. Speaker 2 All right. Some ERA droppers here, ERA fallers from April to May, we have Brian Baio, Zach Litelle, Miles Michaelis, Ryan Nelson and Andrew Abbott. Are you, I know you like Ryan Nelson. Is there anyone else on that in that group of five that you are buying extensively or excited about, I guess getting better as the season has gone on? Speaker 3 No, I, I, I did figure Brian Baio had to get better. I did figure Zach Littell had to get better. I don't think there's so much upside for either that they need to be rostered and they're still going to be dangerous to use even when they have good matchups. But I, I knew them to be better than they showed in April. And, and obviously we're seeing a correction in in May Andrew Abbott, I think is the most, the the least clear, the least clear of these pitchers what to expect from him going forward, because I figured correction had to be coming from him too. He had been consistently difficult to evaluate for fantasy, kind of defying expectations every year. But so consistently doing that, that I think we just had to have the expectation, oh, he's going to continue to defy expectations. He's going to continue to have a respectable ERA and WIP and and be a pitcher that you're going to want to start more often than not. And he the way his May went with the 129 ERA, it's easy to think, oh, he's back to that. The walk and strikeout numbers were pretty terrible for the month. It, it, it doesn't seem like it doesn't seem like he's back to being Andrew Abbott of previous years, even though he managed to keep runs off the board. So I don't I don't know how comfortable you can be with him right now. It might be a time to consider shopping him. I, I don't know that you'd get much unless it's a deep league, but I'm, I'm not really sure what to make of Andrew Abbott right now, which is kind of the story of his career, but it, it thinks he's made it even more questionable. Speaker 2 The last group of ERA improvements from month to month, we have Anthony K, Adrian Houser, Roki Sasaki, Jacob Miziharowski, we know he is awesome, Michael Soroka and Christopher Sanchez who literally did not allow a run in the month of May. Roki Sasaki, you guys spoke about him yesterday. I right there with you guys and being intrigued by what Sasaki is doing lately. Looks like finally starting to look like a starting pitcher, you know, in a different pitch mix and not walking as many. Soroka. I still think there's a pretty good sell high case for right now. What do you think about that, Scott? Mike Soroka. Yeah. Speaker 3 I guess I I again, I would be surprised if you got that much for him in a trade, but it it doesn't hurt to doesn't hurt to dangle him. I I think in the long run, it's very likely he winds up back on the wafer wire. So if you don't have an immediate need for him and you can get something that has a chance of it, you can get something that surely won't be going on the waiver wire at any point in return for Saroki. Saroki, I think you do that. I also want to point out Anthony K his maze totally fake. Don't fall for it. There's nothing to see here. 195 ERA for May, is it? It might be a 595 ERA in June, might be a 695 ERA. Shoot, it might be a 795 ERA. Don't fall for it with Anthony K. Speaker 2 All right, let's wrap up with the rest of Monday's action here. Top Waiver Wire Hitter Options: Carpenter, Young, Emerson A couple waiver wire names wanted to ask you about two outfielders. Welcome back to Carrie Carpenter. He returned on Sunday from the IL. He went three for five with his 7th home run and I think we know what to expect. Scott last year, 26 home runs, strong side platoon player, 59% rostered. Does that number sound appropriate for Carrie Carpenter? Speaker 3 Yeah, 59% all 5 outfielder leagues. He should be rostered, yeah, but probably No 3 outfielder leagues unless they're just very deep. Speaker 2 Very I could. Speaker 3 Large leagues. Speaker 2 Like daily head to head category leagues just playing him when he's in there against a righty. But in any head to head points leagues I don't. I don't think it needs to be rostered. Speaker 3 Sounds right. Speaker 2 What about Jacob Young, he went one for four with his eighth home run to RBI. Over his last 16 games he's hitting three O 8 with five homers and two steals. A 95 mile per hour average exit velocity, 14% barrel rate during this 616 start 16 game stretch where again Jacob Young hit five home runs. Entering this season, he had five homers in 303 career games. So clearly he's doing something right. The barrels are up, the bat speed is up. Do you bite it at all, Scott? 15% roster does Jacob Young. Speaker 3 I think I, I remember hearing on a game I was watching about changes he made to tap into more power. Like it did seem like it was a choice on Jacob Young's part. So to a certain extent, I, I think you have to buy it. The proof is in the pudding. If he's only going to hit 2:30, if he's only going to hit 233, if he's only going to have a stolen base pace of 12 to 15, I, I don't know that that power is going to do much for you. Like he's the things he was more valuable at. He's sacrificing. Not that it the trade off there necessarily makes sense with batting average. I guess it does. But I don't know why he would have to stop running. So that's something to keep an eye on. If Young gets back to stealing bases like we know he can, maybe he'll be worthwhile. But right now, it's hard to say that he is. Speaker 2 All right, checking in on two of the young kids here, Colt Emerson has quietly been solid. He hit his third home run. He's batting 250. He's got a 908 OPS. The expected stats hate him, but it is a lot of line drives and a good pulled error rate early on there for Colt Emerson and Tommy Troy. He is on the board 2 for three with his first career Homer. He has started seven of eight games since getting called up. Emerson at 68% rostered. So if you add him in any more leagues, and that's got, I think we're talking about points leagues and then Tommy Troy much more widely available, only 11% rostered. What do you think about the roster rate for those two guys, Colt Emerson and Tommy Troy? Speaker 3 Tommy Troy, His home run here was his first pulled fly ball so far, the home ready here on Monday. So somehow he's managed to put together a 318 batting average and a 945 OPS. Obviously just a handful of games, but not pulling any fly balls. And I think with his exit velocity readings, even going back to the Miners, it's hard to see Tommy Troy amounting to much unless he's pulling fly balls at a very high rate as opposed to a basically non existent rate. So pretty skeptical of him. Still, I don't know that he needs to be rostered than much in much more than 11%. That's such a low number. Maybe it could go up a little, but I I don't think most people listening need to care about Tommy Troy. And I think Cole Emerson's probably good right where he's at. 68% doesn't really need to be picked up in points leagues. There are enough alternatives at third base and shortstop in their shallower formats and he hasn't don't enough to think he is going to break into the must start range at either of those positions anytime soon. Speaker 2 Are we holding on to AJ Ewing? Those first seven games he was gangbusters. Three O, 4 batting average, one Homer, 2 steals, seven walks to 7 strikeouts. In 13 games since he is hitting 182 with zero extra base hits, two walks, 19 strikeouts, a 40% K rate during that spin. The overall number is it's 2:24 with a 615 OPS. Scott, how long is the leash here with AJ Ewing? Speaker 3 It's kind of up to the Mets to a certain degree. Obviously if they send him down, that's it for our interest level. I still like him. He can't have a strikeout rate this high, but I I think given enough, enough time, he won't 3 outfielder leagues, you know, obviously cut Ewing loose. Outfielders are very dispensable when you're only going that deep into the position. 5 outfielder leagues. I think I'd still hold on to Ewing. I think he's more rosterable than someone like Carrie Carpenter, for instance, just because of the playing time disparity there, but not by much. Speaker 2 All right, quick look at some waiver wire pitchers. Michael Mcgreevy had another quality start, this time against the Rangers. Key Waiver Wire Pitching Targets and Stash Candidates Obviously good match up right now. No Corey Seeger, no Wyatt Langford in the lineup. 6 innings, two runs, two walks, one strikeout. Had six whiffs on 87 pitches. He is 74% rostered. He gets the Reds this weekend and he's at the Twins next week. I, I know that we're expecting regression to come here at some point for Michael Mcgreevy, 74% roster. What do you think about that number for him? Speaker 3 I get it, especially since he was a two star pitcher with good match ups this week. In fact, he was among my sleeper pitchers for this week. So so far, that's a win. I don't get why he's having so much success. There doesn't seem to be anything any one thing that he's especially good at and there's some things that you like the main thing bat missing he's horrible at it. So I I think it's gotta end at some point. It's He entered this start with a 564 expected ERA to go along with his now 298 ERA. But he at least works deep into games when he's not giving up runs and has been a quality start machine so far. So if you don't mind playing with fire and in a points league, it's pretty easy to play with fire. That starting pitcher, the, the format's just so forgivable there. Then yeah, sure, Mcgreevy's usable. Just don't expect it to last. Speaker 2 Yeah, I, you know, I tried to dig into specific pitch data stuff with him and to see if there was anything there. He does have three different pitches with a whiff rate over 29%, which it's not a great number, but it's not terrible. And his sinker actually induces a lot of soft contact. So I'm just trying to find reasons why this is happening for Michael Mcgreevy, and perhaps those are some of them. But yeah. Speaker 3 I mean, when the combined bat missing number and the combined quality of contact number is there, is that why it's just I, I, I, I don't, I don't know how much the individual pitch thing matters. You know, if he had a pitch that was so dominance, like, OK, let's just see him throw it more and and see what happens. But it it it's obviously not like that for Mcgreevy. Speaker 2 Yep, a couple other deep names here. Sean Manaya pitched well in bulk relief at the Mariners. 5 innings, one hit, one run, 4 strikeouts. His velocity was up across the board, so he was obviously pretty jacked up for this one. And he over his last five games, Manaya 270 ERA, one O 8 WHIP and over a strikeout per inning. He is a SPARP on CBS as well. Shane Droan of the Brewers, he he's been pitching well. They just don't really let him go that deep into his starts. 4 innings, two runs, five strikeouts. He had 13 whiffs on 68 pitches and really good numbers in the minors last year as well. And Luinder of Villa is getting stretched out here by the Royals. He was at the Reds where he allowed one run over 5 innings. He had five strikeouts to four walks. Very deep league names here Scott, but anybody stand out? Avila, Shane Drohin and Sean Manaya. Speaker 3 Drohin has a really good fastball and he leaned on it more in this start. Of the 13 with eight came on the fastball. He basically ditched the cutter in favor of more fastballs, which made sense cause the cutter has a 381 batting average against and the fastball has A-077 batting average against. So I I can see a path to success here for Shane Droan. Obviously he has to commit to the approach he showed in his start and the Brewers need to let him go deeper. Those are two big ifs, but I I kind of like Shane Droan in a theoretical sense. Let's see, who else did you mention here? Speaker 2 Shawn Manaya and Luinda Avila. Speaker 3 Yeah, I mean, let's keep an eye on Manaya. Obviously, the velocity has been a problem going back to spring training, but it was up across the board in this start and you got a good result. I don't think it needs to be crazy high velocity with that low arm angle he adopted a couple years ago. But I'm not to the point where I'm saying it's time to pick up Manaya yet. Luinda Avila good at getting weak round balls, but I think it's gonna walk way too many guys for that to matter. Yeah, I think we can ignore him. Speaker 2 We did get 2 pretty rough outings here. Griffin Jax was hit hard by the Tigers. David Sandlin took a big step back here for the White Sox in his second start. I know that two of those guys were some of the most added on CBS this weekend. Scott, are you, you holding on to either of those Griffin Jax or David Sandlin after these two? Speaker 3 I never really understood what people were going on about with Sandlin. I I feel like a couple times people tried to prompt me to say it's OK to stream Sandlin. I mean, it just seemed like a 25 year old organizational depth type had some pretty good strikeout numbers in the Miners, but some pretty bad numbers otherwise. And I I just, yeah, I don't, I think he's still just a 25 year old organizational depth type and obviously showed it here on Monday. Jax, he lined up for two starts this week. I had him as a sleeper pitcher. So that's looking like a miss so far. There are still some things to like about him, but he hasn't. Even in his good starts, he hasn't been so impressive that you should feel like you have to stick with him. Speaker 2 Yeah, he still did have 14 swinging strikes on 72 pitches in this outing here against the Tigers and the upcoming schedule. He gets the Marlins this weekend and at the Angels next week. I, I think I would try to hold on to Griffin Jacks, but if you picked up Sandlin, you could probably, you know, move on to the next flavor of the week for, you know, whoever else emerges here. Quick Takes on Degrom, Ryan, Alcantara, and Sheehan Couple other pitchers. I, I still think both of these are sell high candidates, but they continue to pitch well. Scott, despite what we say, Emerson Hancock, I'm less worried about him. He had a strong outing here against the Mets, 6 innings, two hits, two runs, 7 strikeouts to zero walks. The only reason I bring it up, he has a 280 ERA. But entering the start, his expected ERA was up over 4. So I do think some regression is coming at some point for him. And then Eduardo Rodriguez, I, you know, I really thought this was the week everything takes a step back. He does get the Nationals later this week and they crushed lefty, so we'll see if he can keep it up. But six innings, one run, 3 strikeouts against the Dodgers, a 224 ERA. He entered this one with a 444 expected ERA. I still think there are sell high cases for both of these two, much more so on on E Rod. Speaker 3 Yeah, I, I think there, I think there is a sell high case for Emerson Hancock, but I don't think it's a sell high because the bottom's about the fallout. You know, I think he's going to remain rosterable all season and a worthy part of your staff if you hold on to him. So I don't think you need to shop him aggressively. Eduardo Rodriguez velocity was up in this start quite a bit, and so that might explain this start. Even so, struck out three batters in six innings, Didn't get many whiffs. Previously. He had a run of great matchups that he came through. He came through it against those matchups. So you can kind of understand that. Obviously this was the Dodgers, but again, the velocity was way up, so he might just be. Kind of having a, a, a kind of perfect run here where every start happens, things happen to line up perfectly for him to get a good result. But I, I, I still don't think he's evidencing a lot of like ability here. And and so I think that that perfect run is going to have to end at some point for Eduardo Rodriguez. Speaker 2 All right, a couple of their leftovers here. Updates on Riley Green, Caminero, Blade, and Miguel Vargas On the pitching side of things, we mentioned Jacob degrom. 5 shut out innings with eight strikeouts at the Cardinals. 18 whiffs on 96 pitches. Joe Ryan wasn't at his best against the White Sox. 6 innings, four runs, 9 strikeouts to zero walks, but did allow two homers in that one. Sandy. Sandy Alcantura turned in a quality start at the Nats. 7 innings, three runs, five strikeouts to zero walks. Kate Cavalli was solid on the other side. 5 plus innings, two runs, six strikeouts for him and then Emmett Sheehan. A solid outing at the D Backs. 6 1/3, two runs allowed, three strikeouts to zero walks. Anything else, Scott, that stood out on Sheehan Cavalli, Sandy, Joe Ryan and Jacob Grom? Speaker 3 Sheehan's pitches were up mile, mile per hour and a half, too. We had, we saw a lot of velocity bumps. Yeah. Today, for some reason, Joe Ryan, that was the second straight start we saw a velocity bump from him. I don't know that he necessarily needs it, but it couldn't hurt unless it literally hurts, if you know what I mean. But it's it's going to help the results, I think, for however long it lasts. Cavalli. Yeah, his, his curveball velocity's been up a few starts in a row now and he keeps getting good results with it, I think. Cavalli is probably a bit of a sell high himself at this point. I know the whip is high, so maybe you couldn't sell that successfully and I think he needs to be rostered, but it wouldn't surprise me if he very quickly became not worth rostering. I don't know how durable his six, his recent run of success has been. Speaker 2 All right, some hitting leftovers. Riley Green had himself a big game at 3 for four with a walk, a double, his 5th home run. First Homer since April 29th. Wow. No home runs in the whole month of May for Riley Green Looked into it a little bit. The fly ball rate is down slightly, pulled air rate down slightly, but it, it feels a little fluky. I I think better days are coming here for Riley Green Junior Caminero. Speaker 3 Caminero, Caminero. Speaker 2 One for three with two walks and his 14th home run. I didn't realize how much he is walking this season. It is insane, man. That walk rate is way up for Caminero. JJ Blade stayed hot. One for four with his 10th Homer. Over his last seven, he's hitting 393 with four home runs. And Miguel Vargas will not stop. 3 for five with a double. Dong for RBI. And over his last 22 games, he's hitting 278. Eight Homer, 3 steals, 93 mile per hour, average EV, 17% barrel rate. The breakout continues to look legit. Scott, any thoughts here on Vargas, Blade, Caminero and Riley Green? Speaker 3 I I noticed the same thing with Caminero's walk rate. I I don't think the gap between his points league value and categories league value exists anymore. I think he's just as strong in both formats. Blade Chris and I talked about him yesterday. That's still looking legitimate. Vargas You know, I, I still, I still wonder what the end result looks like here, because it doesn't seem like he has much batting average potential. So right now it's like a 45 Homer, 27 steel pace. And I don't think either of those is realistic. I'm not saying he has no power and no speed, but that that that just seems excessive that he could reach those numbers over the course of a full season. So where does the batting average end up when those normalize? What did those normalize to? But you know, the longer it goes on, the less I can nitpick and say he's anything less than top ten at the two positions he qualifies at. Speaker 2 Yeah, Miguel Vargas entered Monday as the 21st best hitter in Roto and the 7th best hitter in head to You know, it's sometimes it just takes more time for prospects than others and that that might be happening right now with Miguel Vargas. Detroit Bullpen Woes and Tarik Skubal Trade Speculation The call to the bullpen for the Tigers. Will Vest entered with the bases loaded in the eighth. He had a five run lead. He gave up A2 run double followed by A2 run single. He did get the final two outs. He came back out for the ninth. He retired all three in order for his first save. Kyle Finnegan recorded 4 outs across the 6th and 7th. This bullpen and team just kind of feels like a mess right now. Scott, the Detroit Tigers. Speaker 3 Yeah, it's kind of didn't. They enter tied for the worst record in the majors And there's not a lot to be hopeful about in the bullpen. It's there. There are a lot of problems here. And and since we're talking about the bullpen and and what to expect for saves until Kenley Jansen returns, fortunately, I don't think Jansen's gonna be out for long, but I would imagine it's going to be mix and match from AJ Hinch. Until then, Vast Finnegan. They were both there in the second-half last year and that's basically how he handled them then. They were both better last year than they they've been this year. But I think the approach is going to be similar. Speaker 2 Yes. So entering Monday, actually now entering Tuesday, the Tigers are tied with the Angels and the Rockies for the worst record in baseball. Anytime you are in a conversation with the Angels and the Rockies, it's it's probably not good. So we'll see. And then you know, if this keeps up the, the bidding war for Tarek school at the deadline will just be absolutely bananas. So we'll see what happens there. For the Rangers, Jacob Latz got the 9th with a one run lead. He struck out two for his eighth save. Speaker 3 The Dodgers are going to get Tarek's Google spoiler alert. Speaker 2 I don't say that's. Speaker 3 I mean do. Speaker 2 Your Atlanta Braves have anything left in the cupboard? Like, come on. Speaker 3 Man, is there any other way this is gonna go? We all know. We all know what's gonna happen. Speaker 2 And we just got five more comments on YouTube from Dodgers fans calling us haters for for the D backs, Paul Seawald pitched a clean ninth inning, up for his 15th save of the year. Top Streamer Picks and Hilarious Team Name Tuesday Submissions To stream or not to stream on Tuesday, we have Aaron Nola up against the Padres, Shane Baz at the Red Sox, Noah Cameron at the Reds. Trevor Donald at the Brewers, Dustin May against the Rangers, gauge jump at the Cubs, Mike Burrows against the Pirates in a revenge game and Grayson Rodriguez against the Rockies in Anaheim. Speaker 3 Think Dustin May against the Rangers is probably my top choice, followed by Aaron Nola against the Padres. Those matchups are so favorable. Obviously Grayson Rodriguez against the Rockies, that's favorable too. I just. Speaker 2 Yeah, his last star was pretty good, but. Speaker 3 His last star was pretty good, but not in a way that convinced me. It's all clicked for him, you know? So I I'm he's probably my third choice here, but not with a lot of confidence. Speaker 2 I think I would go with the same 3. Speaker 3 Oh, you know what shame Baz at the Red Sox. Speaker 2 Yeah, but he he only dominates the rays he needs. He needs revenge on his dish. Speaker 3 Red Sox or that lineup's pretty bad. Speaker 2 True. Speaker 3 Yeah. Speaker 2 I I would probably still go with Grace Rodriguez over him, but it's, I think you're playing with fire with both of those guys, to be honest. And then on Wednesday, we have Grant Holmes against the Blue Jays, Andre Polante against the Rangers, Jeffrey Springs at the Cubs, Walbert Arania against the Rockies in Anaheim. Is there anyone else here? Not really. Speaker 3 Arania's good with that. Rockies match up especially. Yep, Holmes and Palante I guess, but I I think I think they're more likely to hurt than help. Speaker 2 Yeah, those were the three I was looking at too. Arania, Holmes and Palante, in that order. Let's wrap up here with team name Tuesday. These are from Mark. Pour some sugar on me. Speaker 3 Sure, good feeling, I like it. Speaker 2 How you leaving Biggie Smalls? That must be like a how you living? How you Lee? Is he on the Tigers I. Speaker 3 Don't remember, I believe so. Speaker 2 Yeah, the Can I talk? Jeez, the great Cornelio. Speaker 3 OK. Speaker 2 This one's from [email protected]. It works better spelling it out, but yeah. Speaker 3 Yeah, I. Speaker 2 See what he's going for here? Speaker 3 It so am I and then he just added anl.com, right? That's OK, Fair enough. Speaker 2 I'm pretty sure people just try to think of ones that you would absolutely hate Scott and that's why we these are from Brandon a movie, Harrison and the Hendersons. Speaker 3 You know, I that has two names in there, but it actually works because one of the names just fits in exactly as the name as the part it's replacing. So yeah, I like that one. Speaker 2 Yeah, I I love the movie too. I've seen it a bunch of times. This is a song caroling through the night. Speaker 3 Was that sarcasm? Speaker 2 No, I love that movie. I don't even I've. Speaker 3 Never seen it. I don't think it's supposed to be that great. Speaker 2 I don't know. I don't. I don't even know what movie it is, but yeah. Speaker 3 Harry and the Hendersons. Speaker 2 Nope, I haven't seen it. Speaker 3 You gotta look it up, man. I wanna see Harry and that. What kind of IMDb score does it have? 6.1 is passable. Exactly 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. Solid. Then. I mean, yeah. Anyway, Carol. OK, Sure. Yeah, let's keep going. Speaker 2 This one I I have to be careful with from Lou Schlit the Bednar. Speaker 3 All right. I mean, you didn't have to include. Speaker 2 It I, I didn't say any bad words from Ken. Do I say, do I say it like Jesus or I'll say it both ways. Jesus made water into wine. But that's Jesus, mate. The prospect for the Brewers? Speaker 3 Yeah. Speaker 2 From Ryan, These are all food related. Right up your alley, Scott, Chips and Caro. Speaker 3 Sure. Speaker 2 Red beans and rice or Uncle Ben's rice? Yep. Eggs Benintendi. Speaker 3 Sure. Speaker 2 Arise Compoyo. Speaker 3 Think we've had that one before, but it's a good, it's a good one. Speaker 2 From Danny Breadsticks, great actual name. If that's your actual name, the Dale and Double. Speaker 3 Yeah. Speaker 2 And then this last one is from Brendan. He says there are five player names and I have to sing it to get the full effect. All right? So he clearly wants to go after Scott on this one. So it is Quan Bader, Dingler, Heiman Schmidt. Speaker 3 Yeah, you do have to sing it to get it. I I think if you just saw it, which is of course how most people absorb team names, it would not make any sense. It's not. It's not terrible. Ideally, you want a team name that both reads well and sounds right. You know, you don't want people to have to do that much work with your team name. Speaker 2 I like it, I thought it was pretty good. Speaker 3 OK. Speaker 2 All right, we're gonna wrap there for Scott. I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again tomorrow. Bye.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Jose Soriano is struggling with walks (7 walks in one start, 7.5 walks per 9 innings over last 4 starts) but still has elite swing-and-miss rates and ground ball skills; he is not a must-start but remains a must-roster pitcher.
  2. Landen Roupp also had a terrible start (8 runs, 5 walks in 4 innings) due to control issues, though underlying metrics like exit velocity and expected ERA are strong; he is a hold but not a must-start.
  3. Dillon Dingler hit two home runs, now has 13 homers in 54 games, and his expected stats suggest better days ahead; he is a top-12 catcher.
  4. Jackson Chourio is hitting the ball harder than in the past with improved barrel rate, suggesting a power surge may come soon despite only 2 home runs so far.
  5. Andrew Vaughn is hitting .354 but has only 1 home run and is in a timeshare with Jake Bauers, limiting his value to deep leagues only.
  6. Elly De La Cruz is on the IL with a hamstring strain; top prospect Edwin Arroyo was called up but has high chase rates and a low fantasy floor.
  7. Other Elly De La Cruz replacements include Dansby Swanson, Brooks Lee, Ezekiel Duran, and Colt Emerson, with Swanson being the top choice despite a low batting average.

Summary:

The podcast discusses recent pitching struggles for Jose Soriano and Landen Roupp. 5 walks-per-nine rate over his last four outings. However, his underlying skills remain elite, including a 14% swinging strike rate and a 50% ground ball rate.

Roupp similarly struggled, allowing 8 runs and 5 walks in 4 innings, though his expected ERA and FIP are solid. Both pitchers are not must-starts but are worth rostering. Dillon Dingler is highlighted as a catcher with 13 home runs and strong expected stats, making him a top option at a thin position.

Jackson Chourio is hitting the ball harder this year, with a higher barrel rate, suggesting a power breakout is imminent despite only 2 homers so far. Andrew Vaughn is hitting well but is in a timeshare with Jake Bauers, limiting his playing time and fantasy relevance to deep leagues. Finally, with Elly De La Cruz landing on the IL, the Reds called up prospect Edwin Arroyo, but his high chase rate and strikeout issues make him a risky add.

Alternatives like Dansby Swanson are recommended for shallower leagues, while speed-only options like Nasim Nunez are noted for those needing steals.

FAQs

Swinging strike rate measures the percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss. It's a key indicator of a pitcher's ability to generate whiffs, which is why Soriano's elite 14% rate suggests he still has high upside despite control issues.

They noted that both pitchers have improved their arsenals and bat-missing skills compared to earlier in their careers, but their persistent control problems mean they haven't become reliable aces—just better than their previous streamer-level selves.

Dingler hit 13 home runs in 54 games in 2024, matching his entire 2023 total of 13 homers, which took 126 games. This shows a significant increase in power efficiency and barrel rate.

Chourio's fly balls have been going to center and opposite field, which suppresses home runs. If he pulls the ball more often, his increased barrel rate and exit velocities should lead to a power breakout.

Vaughn is in a timeshare with Jake Bauers, who plays against righties. With Christian Yelich occupying DH and the Brewers prioritizing outfield defense, Vaughn, as the weak-side hitter, gets fewer starts.

Arroyo has a high chase rate near 40% at Triple-A, meaning he swings at pitches outside the strike zone. Major league pitchers can exploit this, leading to strikeouts and potential struggles.

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