Rieder or Not, Gold Shines, & Shutdown Looms (Ep. 172)

Welcome to the Facts vs. Feelings podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dietrich, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sonu Varghese. Cutting through the noise each week with Ryan Dietrich, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP Global Mako Strategist, taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. And we are back episode 172, of course, in this Facts vs. Feelings, Sonu and Ryan, Sonu, we had some. What is that noise, Sonu? You building something? No, no. Is that your house? What is that? I'm not building anything. Oh, you know what? It made me the snow folks outside. The pouring ice and clearing snow. Sorry, yeah. We have noises. We want me to go tell them to shut it. Tell them that one of the top 23 podcasts for financial advisors in 2026 is recording right now. You want to talk about that for a second, Sonu? Let's do it. Let's. Thank you, Michael Kitsy. Secondly, a running one of the top 23 financial. No, podcast for financial advisors, I guess, you know. And it's an honor to be right next to, you know, be a big fan of compounded friends. Oh, yeah. Josh Brown, Michael Batnik, that whole crew there. They do amazing work. So just having our picture next to theirs is something else. And then the folks up in Canada, rational reminder, they do a great job as well. They mean, you know, we are like the new kids on the block. Right? But, you know, thank you, Michael Kitsy. It's an honor. And thank you all for your support. Yeah. It was, it was neat to see that. We did make it last year. And I kind of have water. It's wonderful to make it again. And then sure enough, on LinkedIn, maybe 24 hours ago, give or take, I got the alert that we did. Thank you, Michael. And thanks, all the listeners out there. So this one we titled, are they done doing a snow? I don't hear it anymore. Did they clean your clean it all off for you? So far. You never know. It's Chicago. So it may start snowing at any point. That's true. That is true. Like zero degrees. Are you getting slammed? Did you? Yeah. I mean, my kids, I don't think they're going to have a school again. I mean, let's just keep cold. They just keep canceling because it's too cold. And I look at the, it's like negative every day going out to whenever. We got like nine inches of snow in Cincinnati. But it's just so cold. They're canceling. So they haven't had schooled last two days and I don't know about tomorrow. So we will see. But, you know what? Here's a good title. We came up with this. So did I message each other many times on this. I thought it was kind of good. Reader or not, gold shines and shut down looms. Those who get the joke. Reader is potentially next fed chair person. But so I kind of want to start with gold and silver. You know, yesterday morning, which was Monday, the whole nation is kind of snowed in. Not the whole nation. But most of the nation. Most of the nation. Snowed in cold freezing. And then you look and equity markets are kind of bounce a little bit. But golds going bonkers and silver is absolutely crazy. I think it was up like 14% at one point. Like one of the best days since 85. I looked at like call options, overall option volume over like SLV, the silver ETF. All these pit like all time highs in terms of volume. So right away, it's like, okay, maybe it's near term peak. Chris Campbell, friend of the show, obviously joined his late last year. Chris has had kind of a lot of get too geeky on you, but Chris talked about them and Archie and Fibonacci numbers. He's been saying 123 for a while is a logical place where gold might find some type of a major peak. It didn't quite get the one. 23. Sorry. Sorry. Oh, well, that's a big difference. Maybe we don't go to be. We blew through that one. You're right. You're right. You're right. Hey, sorry. So Chris been talking about that 123 level to me for a long time. And Chris is pretty right. Anyway, so you got all this stuff swirling. And then you look today and solvers down 8% about 105. Hey, no one's complaining. He's been in silver for a while. Maybe we had a near term major capitulation silver peak. I don't think silver is done. Maybe it's done for a little bit. Let's put it that way. What's your take on the metals and mining and silver and all that stuff going on? It's all going up. And I'm. Thank you. Thank you. He's a PhD, everyone. And silver is like a leveraged goal play. And by the way, side note, maybe we'll talk about inflation later. You know, I swear, I'm going to mute any bugger who, you know, talks about trueflation right now. Right. You have all these commodities going up. Ever that metals, aluminum copper, silver, gold, oil, natural gas. And people are like, oh, inflation's going down. Sorry. No, that's not happening. Right. But anyway, there's momentum. I think part of it. The gold story. We've been talking about it for goodness, three years, probably near around three years. My 31st, 2023 is when we first included it in our tactical portfolio. So at that time, it was like, you know what? We don't like treasuries. We don't want to add. Right. That correlation between stocks and bonds will be the same as it was in the last decade. But we need some portfolio protection when we are always equities, which was the best form of protection that we thought would play that role. It was goal. Yeah. And be included goal. And last year, we actually reupped gold in a strategic portfolio that that time we talked about, you know, the debatement trade, right? Everyone laughs at the debatement trade here. Very simply. Here's what I think is happening. The inflation is elevated, massive fiscal deficits. There's more fiscal spending coming, tax cuts, all of that. The Fed is, we'll talk about the Fed and reader writers on the storm, the writer's storming ahead. I have that door is sawing in my head, by the way. But yeah, no, the Fed is under pressure to drop rates. The fiscal deficits in the middle of elevated inflation, all these commodity prices are going up. I don't think inflation is going down. So yeah, I think this is a good environment for gold. In fact, this is, I think, is the ideal environment for gold. If you take the counterfactual, I think what could push gold prices, last thing? What could push gold prices down? Tomorrow, Powell comes and says, we are thinking about rate hikes. I think gold gets killed. Yeah. Right? Tomorrow, if Congress comes and says, you know what, we are cutting spending. Right? We are trying to get pushed the fiscal balance into a surplus. Yeah. You can figure out the odds of that happening, but unless that's happening, that happens, I don't think gold goes down. Yeah. Well said there. On the YouTube channel, right now, Drew over at PodPony, we can put up the Wall Street Journal article. It says, business and finance right at the top, gold loses status as Haven. This is in late 2022, everyone, gold was trading around 1,700 bucks an ounce. If my math is right, it's up, ballpark 200, proximate, 200% since then. That was the attitude of gold back then, clearly so different. I will say, you know, the blow off top potentially in silver, it's caught my attention a little bit. You know, gold is over not the same thing. I'm aware of their cousins. I did see Peter Schiff has been making the rounds on some very big podcasts. Now somebody finally got him on after 20 years. Exactly. Peter Schiff went on my gold forever and listen, it has been working no doubt about it, but I will say, you know, kind of like when you see certain big time bears in the media, at certain points, usually the markets down, usually, okay, he's on TV. Well, let's buy. I do have a little worry that the Peter Schiff is starting to be out there a little bit more, but more power to him. He has been saying the own gold and portfolio for a long time, but so if we, I mean, we've been saying that too. You know, we manage real money, right? And I know Barry on our team did a lot of numbers. We can't like give them away because I don't know what's up ahead, but Barry pointed out like the alpha that owning metals and mining have created for the real money that we've run for our Carson partners the last three years. I mean, so it was, I mean, it was, it was a lot. I mean, it's why we've outperformed. Yeah, yeah. I mean, yeah. I mean, just yet today, it's added like 40, 50 basis points of alpha. This is an excess performance. Yeah. And that's a big deal. It's not like when you when you manage money, 50 basis points of one month is a really big deal. And these are not large positions. By the way, like you put all this together. Maybe it's like 6% 7% let's say in a 60 40 type portfolio, you know, talk about big positions here, right? We're not going crazy. We do manage real money. We have to worry about risk. We're not going crazy with the stuff. Right? We're not putting 20% of the portfolios ago. Oh, we should have made sure that. But, you know, one point on your like that headline that you shared, the Wall Street Journal talk about, oh, gold is no longer a haven demand. I have another chart. Drew, maybe we can put this up. This shows the US dollar versus gold as a share of global central bank reserves. Interesting. So, US dollar claims, and these are usually treasuries, as a percentage share of global reserves. So, these are foreign central banks, how much of reserves they hold. The US dollar claims have fallen from about 50% in 2023. So, it was half of all reserves to about 40% in just over two years. It's been falling since 2017, it fell from about 55% in 2017 to about 50% in 2023. Right now it's about 40%. The big drop-off has come out in the last year, year and a half. Meanwhile, gold share of reserves has increased from 15% a couple of years ago to about 25%. It's gone from, let's say, 15% to about a quarter of global reserves right now. So, so much for that headline, and it's pretty much one to one, right? US dollar reserves have been falling, but it's not like all the central banks are saying, oh, we like the euro, we like the yen, no, they're not saying that. Instead, they're going to go. Want to hear more from the Facts versus Feelings team? Sign up for the Carson Investor Research newsletter. You'll get up-to-date market news, analysis, and insights from us and the rest of the team to help you serve as a better guide for your clients. Subscribe today at CarsonGroup.com/investmentnewsletter and share your thoughts on the topic of the day. So, we're going to try it again, we're going to try it again, my boys have the long four day weekend, we're going to go out the Arizona again, do some work stuff, and then piggyback it with go to a Cincinnati Reds game, I think it's March 5th, whatever that Friday is. So everybody, and they're playing the Giants right there, and I'll have to get the name of the town. Anyway, Scottsdale, sorry, they're playing the Giants right there in Scottsdale, so let's just start praying now, that we don't have rain on that first Friday in Arizona. So I can go to Arizona and see the Cincinnati Reds play spring training. What I was getting at though, it's just getting some good vibes out there for no rain in Arizona and March, what I was getting at was Warren was talking about this debatement thing way back then. Now listen, we kind of agreed with it. I don't know if we were calling it quite the debatement trade. I think we're going to give Warren his flowers, I think he kind of coined that. I think he might have said someone else did, but close stuff for government work. What is the debatement trade? Maybe you already said it this podcast, but let's talk to him one more time. When people hear the basement trade, what in the world is that? It's easy to think of that is the dollar is getting debased amidst inflation, right? Where I think the way I think about it is, as I said, look, inflation's elevated now. And right now, given everything we are seeing in commodity prices, I mean, we overweight metals and mining, for example, right? If we go underweight, yeah, I'll be like, yeah, maybe inflation's adding lower. And by the way, I should say the Fed actually targets headline inflation. They look at core inflation to get a sense of what direction headline is going. But the target is still headline. And that means energy plays a big role, right? All these commodity prices play a big role because they've all a tile. Like I said, we overweight this stuff for reasons, so I, you know, disinflation is not what we are betting on right now, literally, right? So when inflation's elevated and the outlook for inflation, I would say at best, is quite messy, right? I don't think inflation's going to 4%, but, you know, maybe it says close to 3%, which by itself would be okay if Congress was trying to, you know, get the head around fiscal deficits and say, you know what? Maybe you should cut back spending and the Federal Reserve is like, maybe we should pause, maybe we should hike rates. Yeah, then I would say, that's not debasement, but we have the opposite. We have elevated inflation. We have massive fiscal deficits. You'll talk more about that when we talk about reader and stuff like that, compared to the 90s as well. And the Federal Reserve is under huge pressure to drop interest rates even further. That's debasement. Okay. And it's happening not just in the US though, I mean, like lots of gold and straight, yeah, I mean, well, like for in JC Fred's, he's been talking about this for a while and we've talked about it too. But gold isn't just breaking out, the US dollar gold broke out, I think it was January, right about two years ago, right? In part two years ago, gold broke out the new highs and look outside in the last two years, that was relative to the dollar. But then you look like in late 24, early 25, gold started breaking out the new highs. It's just about every currency, maybe there's one out there, it didn't make a new high on. But when it was doing that, that's a real true bull market when you talk about metals, because yes, we all talk about priced in dollar because well, look where we live. But the other people price in different things and when you do that, it has been going higher. You want to talk a little more inflation, or do you want to go the reader round? Let's talk the reader round, but one final point on exactly what you said, it's not just US, right, debasement, obviously in the same thing in Japan, physical deficits, what happened to bond yields, bond yields went up, you know, the currency actually, normally you think that bond yields go up, the currency would also go up because it makes it more attractive. We'll talk about your camera now, right? Yeah, so you think the yen should go higher. Yes, the yen should go higher, but it didn't go higher when all that fracas happened last week. But I should say, when you say global markets, all of the stuff, at least for now, is good for stocks. Oh, yeah. Look at the Nikkei. The Nikkei actually did well during this time, a couple of years ago, a year and a half ago, and we talked about the yen carry trade crisis, the Nikkei had crashed. That's not happening right now. The SAP 500 is very close to all time highs. He attacks, struggling a little bit. I think tech is coming back maybe as we speak. All of the stuff, inflationary growth, which is literally what we wrote in our 2026 outlook, that's good for metals, and I think it's good for stocks as well. Now, what did you call it with the, the, the, the, the, the, the, you've used word kerfluffle before. What was. So I was on CNBC, I guess it was last, yeah, Friday, just Friday, so what is to use this last Friday. And they did different, they had different hosts on Squawk Boss because the regular crew was over in Davos. They had some new ones, not new ones with different people filling in. And it was great. I thought it was a good conversation. I enjoyed listening before I was live, just listening, you know, and Brian Sullivan, I, I, I love Brian Sullivan. I think he's hilarious. I truly Brian Sullivan's the funniest guy on TV. I get along with him really well because we both kind of liked that a little fun sometimes. And, um, Steve Leisman said something like kerfluffle about who knows the government who knows kerfluffle. And, and just off the cuff live on TV, live on TV, solid goes kerfluffle. What, what, wasn't that big bird's best friend? I don't know if it's true or not. It was so funny. And I'd like about to go out there and just giggling because I thought it was so that every time I hear kerfluffle, maybe you to tune everyone, this is a word we use in this world. I want to think of Brian Sullivan saying it wasn't that big bird's best friend. I don't know. Maybe let us know in the comments on YouTube, let us know who, who, um, big bird's best friend was. We're going to say it's kerfluffle. All right. So now we're going all over the place. Let's talk about that F word, the fed. I'll set, I'll set the stage. Um, Rick Reader was like a 5% chance like a week or two ago. And now he's ballpark forward. And he got the exact numbers. 28% for it. Oh, wow. It's even higher. Okay. He's a CIO of fixed income over a black rock. Pretty, pretty big shop. Black rock. I know. Yeah. Kind of kind of big kind of big. As of now, we still have what is, we were writing, Worsh, Waller, and Hassett, sounds like Hassett might be kind of moving out of that, but those are still the four technically. He's in charge of a quarter of the data, 2.7 trillion with a T, 2.7 trillion in AUM. So he's managed a lot of money. Uh, what else do I have on him here? Um, oh, I thought two, two points, I felt that that's kind of like the feds balance. She it's like, it's like, it's like money between, between black rock and managing the feds balance. I mean, you know, yeah, he, um, he is quote unquote more dovish if you listen to some of his interviews, which I think President Trump probably works. They are, right? Well, you better be. You better, but he does point out, I kind of agree with some of these concepts. I didn't hardly disagree. I mean, you know, he's saying because of higher productivity, there's AI, logistics, automation, all these things in the future, probably put more of a little bit of a cap on it. I don't think he's quite true flation level of inflation, but he's saying this stuff. I will say this and I'll turn to you. What I like about him, he's a communicator. He's on TV all the time. He manages real money, but he also communicates. I think in the world we live in now, communication is more important than ever. So he's real world. He don't know if he has a doctorate or PhD, he might, but nonetheless, he's more real world manages money. Notice how to communicate and talk to people and I don't think he's going to be setting his ways. Maybe to get the job, you have to wink, wink, I'll give you a rate cut or two. That's just kind of what has to happen. But maybe once he's in the job for a while, he'll let the data come to him and use that's what we all want. We want someone who's not just going to do whatever your boss tells you, although so known, I of course, always do what our bosses tell us, but when you're in charge of the Fed, I don't want that. I guess your boss is the president. Everyone knows reading from the lines I'm trying to say here, we want you to follow the data and do what's best for our country, best for our economy, best for inflation, best for the U.S. Looks like he's describing somebody we know well, which is Jerome Powell. There you go. Well, he's ready to get out of there. I set it up. I don't know where I set it up. Throw an hour out of there. That's right now. Well, he might stick around. We'll see. He's staying on a governor. Anyway, so what's your take on reader and everything else with the Fed? Because again, two weeks ago, we weren't even considering him, honestly, and now he's a coin flip. Yeah. What do you think? Drew, let's put up this chart, Fed, share, horse, race, Rick Reader right now is at 48% Kevin Warsh, who Reader displaced was at 27% Kevin Hassett, who Kevin Warsh displaced is currently at 6% Chris Waller, who Hassett displaced was at 10% so he played the musical chairs, right? Look, I think it's actually notable that no candidate is over 50%. But you think normally betting markets is a collective wisdom, but I hear I don't think it's reflecting any sort of quote unquote wisdom, right? I think the choice, it just comes down to one person that is president Trump. And look, Hassett's odds a couple of months ago, months ago was 90%. That's collapsed to 6% right now. It tells you that Trump really isn't convinced with his current options, right? And that's why he's seeing all this volatility in betting markets and Kevin Warsh was up at 60% odds exactly a week ago, right? So let's talk about each of the Hassett I think would be the most likely to give the president what he wants. But for whatever reason Trump is like, you know what, I like you, where you are right now is the head of the National Economic Council. And that's when his odds are a crash. Then you had Kevin Warsh, historically the guy has been in inflation hawk. Even in 2008, 2009 when it was the most ridiculously wrong decision to be a hawk, right? And I'll just try me just for a second friend, Neil Dotto, over at Rin Mack, he's obviously had some strong opinions on this one. So like Neil does, like Neil does, but Neil is, we thought we had a boss, Neil is the boss. When you're the boss, you can really say which is what Neil lets his feelings clear there. I, you know, maybe Neil should get his add in the rain. We've have joked about that. And then he'd come on our podcast. I just want one Fed chairperson or podcast and Neil would come on our podcast. So yeah, I, you know, shout out, I think Neil would make a good Fed chair. You should be a governor. You and you and Neil, he can be the main guy. You'll be a governor. You guys will. Yeah. There we go. So anyway, Kevin Warsh, look, he's making, obviously he's making the right noises about, oh, we need to reduce rates right now for obvious reasons. But his, his tree is not convincing at all. Then you got Chris Waller, who I think honestly would probably be the best candidate. That's there. That's what I kind of like. I mean, I like him the most because anything more about reader, but Waller was always my favorite to begin with out of the three wall has been kind of right about everything that's happened with the economy over and the trajectory of inflation and the labor market of the last two years. Yep. And look, the Fed chair is just one vote out of 12. You need to be able to convince the rest of the committee members to go along with, in this case, rate cuts. But even he's unlikely to take rates much lower than 3%. Obviously, President Trump wants rates at 1%, nobody's going to give him that. But you think, okay, can we get to at least two, two and a half percent? Yeah. So I think that's why recreators come in as this dark horse candidate. He's like you said, he's made some comments about taking rates down below 3% on the back of productivity growth. I do, I want to talk about that. Scott Besson's been in that same camp. Yeah, we can drop rates below 3%, maybe two and a half, 2.75% because of productivity growth. But again, the reality is, I don't think even he is likely to push rates as low as Trump wants, which means, hey, over the next week or two, somebody else could come up. But anyhow, I'll talk about, I want to talk about the 90s and productivity growth. Well, let me jump in. Yeah, let me jump in. I believe I understand this one. You can confirm this. So the president picks them, but they still have to go through the Senate, right? They still need to be confirmed by the Senate. Our Republicans are 53 C's, Democrats 47, we can go back in history and this is usually they don't necessarily get confirmed, I think. Yeah, you don't usually vote by party lines here. I mean, you've seen definitely, you can get a lot more votes, you know, maybe if they like you on the Senate. So that's another side to this, but Rick Breeder has a lot of good will, you know, and he's very well respected and he just kind of came out of nowhere, apparently. When did he meet with Trump? Like a week ago or something like that? Oh, yeah. Either way. Yeah. But like I said, I think it's telling that his odds haven't gone up above 50. They're waiting for Neil for Neil to put his hand in the ring, in a kneel data for, you know, I don't think it's going to help him be promoted. Maybe somebody else did it be somebody, you know, those guys knows the treasury secretary. Maybe he's best and can put in a good word for a good point. That's a good point. I will be very excited. But anyway, like I said, the Fed share look is just one vote amongst 12. So the chair will have to convince others that rates, rates need to go lower, right? That's going to be a hard task. If one, the labor market doesn't look like it's breaking, and two, if inflation remains elevated, right? But that leaves the productivity growth story and that's what reader and best and believe will be the rationale or they believe it's good rationale enough to drop rates. Yes, productivity is high. And that's why they're like, oh, we can do what Greenspan did in the mid 1990s. The logic is that productivity growth will result in lower inflation and higher real wages, right? It's allowed Greenspan to lower rates in the 90s, but I, right, here's one thing. And we've talked about that over the last couple of years, too. And in 2023, 2023, 2024, we saw a strong productivity growth. Inflation is coming down. 2025, we actually saw strong productivity growth, but we didn't see lower inflation. Inflation remained elevated about 2.7. By the time core PC comes out for December, it's going to be about 3% or so. Something else happened in the 1990s, which is not happening right now. One is globalization took off after 1995. NAFTA came into effect just before that. And then China entered the WTO in 1999. Okay. In fact, I'll put this chart up showing durable goods inflation through its PC, inflation for durable goods 1990 to 2025. You can see from 1990 to 1995, the early 90s, inflation for durable goods is running by 1 to 2% per year. Price is increasing generally, not crazy, but it was increasing. What happens from 1995, all the way to 2020? Inflation collapsed. It became negative. And prices just went straight down, straight line down. Right. Price just fell for 25 years, until we got the post-COVID inflation surge. And again, in 2025, because the tariffs went up. Globalization is reversing right now, with all the tariffs stuff, right? So that's one reason. Greenspan was like, yes, he got productivity growth, but inflation went down. One reason was, you know, you got globalization, you got cheaper goods from abroad. That's not quite the case right now. Like any good podcast, let me play devil's advocate for a second. You didn't mention the internet. I mean, the internet was one of the more deflationary things we were seeing. A lot of smart people were saying, "A.I.'s the next deflationary aspect. How do you, how do you, how do you square that sort of? I would say the internet, by the time all that happened, it was the 2000s. Okay. Right. Good point. Right. And then, by the way, the internet, yes, it was maybe 2004, when it really worked itself into all of our lives, including professional rights, right? AI could do that possibly, but that's, you know, I think much later down the line, right? Right. You know, maybe it's a 28th to 2033 story or something like that. By the way, by the time it really makes its presence felt, right? The other thing that happened in the 90s, the federal government was running a primary surplus. By primary surplus, I mean, if you take the fiscal balance, excluding interest payments. So, it's a good way to get a sense of how much is Congress and the White House, how much are they actually spending? What are actual fiscal outlays relative to revenue? The fiscal balance was in the positive at that time, in the late 90s. In fact, by the time we got to 1998, 1999, 2000, it was running at like four, five percent of GDP right, positive. Right now, the fiscal balance is in deficit. It's running close to about 2 percent deficits. I think that's another reason Congress, the government was spending a lot less money back in the 90s, late 90s, especially, and that kept the lid on inflation, goes back to what we were talking about. The Fed is under pressure to lower rates. That's why gold is also doing what it's doing. Look at what gold did in the mid 90s. Right? I mean, that was not the time when gold was doing well. It was the 2000s. Actually, when gold went on a big run, 1980s and 1990s, it's terrible for gold. But that was because inflation was going down, but we didn't have big fiscal spending. That's not the case right now. Well said. I know gold was up 11 years in a row. Right. I think it was one of the longest win streaks for any asset period. And one of the calls that we made three years ago was gold and stocks are probably going to be higher together for years. I'm just saying that. And it got some odd looks. We'll just leave it there. And I pointed out that there appeared like five and six years in a row where gold and stocks went up in those 2000s, in those odds. So it's, you know, it is possible. And that's clearly where we are. It's just looking at Terminator and Terminator 2 apparently it was August 97 when AI became as it called sentient. When AI could think for itself when all the judgment day started. And apparently Terminator 2, I'm sorry, Terminator 1. The war they're talking about was in 2029. So from these numbers and yeah, I know we're getting that's kind of, oh boy, James Cameron's pretty smart guy. I hope you wasn't that smart. I don't know. I hope he's not that smart. You mentioned when AI really starts taking off and they get, oh God. Here we go. Oh, James Cameron. Oh boy. Save us. Anyway, all right. We talked a lot about the Fed. The Fed meeting this week. We're going to go there. It's not a lot to say. So we probably can make it quick. Do you want to talk about that? Or what do you mean? I mean, I think we, because of, you know, like I said, going back to the labor market doesn't look like it's breaking inflation looks like it's going to stay elevated, especially given what's happening at commodity in the commodity complex. So I think this Fed is going to stay on hold obviously this meeting. I think they stay on hold in March. And I think they stay on hold in May. Then Powell goes and all that's are off. Yep. Any normal environment based on what you see in the data for the labor market based on the inflation data. I would say the Fed would be maybe thinking about maybe not raising rates, but at least thinking about it. We're going in the opposite direction. Like I said, it gets back to why do I think gold is going up? That's exactly why. Mm-hmm. Good stuff there. You know, we, we talked before, midterm year site, midterm year system, we're going back great. We've laid into this a lot lately. So I won't say too much more. Other than in 2018 and 22, the Fed was more hawkish then, right? So what's the Fed doing now? I'm not so hawkish as we've laid out. Um, where do we want to, what do you want to talk about? Do you want to talk? We got some inflation data. We got income income data. We got consumer spending. Let's go inflation because I didn't have enough time, but I wanted to buy it. I believe in trueflation t-shirt just to just a so new to this smash this computer. Which is probably about to smash the computer about an hour ago. We have some technical difficulties. I know kidding. I didn't have time. I didn't have time. But maybe I'll still do that. I believe in trueflation. What is trueflation? I know you were fighting back on the X-Fear Twitter sphere on it. What is it exactly? I don't know. I think without getting into this, like it, like I said, now everybody watch, wait a second, watch YouTube. Watch so to get redder. I don't know. Do you even get red soda? I don't look at you. We're about to find out. My good friend, so look and even get red. Watch him on YouTube right now when he talks about this. No, I look at it's measuring a bunch of goods prices. It's collecting a whole bunch of goods prices. From across the web, you can say, you know what, I collected a million prices, but if it's like price of a million versions of cardboard, that's not going to help. You want a diverse basket of goods and services, by the way, right? And that gets to the inflation data. Yes, core goods inflation has been running harder. That's because of tariffs. I mean, no surprise, right? We know that. And, you know, it's durable goods inflation over the last 12 months, running about 1.2%. It doesn't seem like a lot, but it was negative 1.3% in 2024. So you're talking about a two and a half percentage points swing to the positive. So that's contributed to elevated inflation in 2025. But I would argue even, that's transitory, fair, right? I mean, the Fed probably wouldn't use that word, but I would say, okay, fair enough. That's transitory. The problem is core services outside of housing is running hot. You can say the tariff impact is transitory, all of that. But core service, you think like personal care services, child care, veterinary services, right? All of the stuff, recreational services, concerts, movie theater tickets, all of that. That makes up about 60% of the core PCE inflation basket in the room of PCE is what the Fed focuses on. And core inflation, core services inflation, Drew, we can put up this chart, core services exhousing. That's running at 3.3%. That's hot. Right. Before the pandemic, 2018, 2019, it was about 2.2%, we're well above that. And final thing on the inflation point, last, by the time we get December numbers, I think the core PCE index, which is what the Fed looks at, is probably going to clock in around 3% year over year for 2025. That's come despite one oil price is going down and sheltered inflation. We got a lot of sheltered inflation. I would argue. We even got a pull forward of that because of the assumptions of BLS made October because of the shutdown. And see, we can talk about the shutdown here. Yeah, I've got to shut down. Shut down. We'll get there. Because of the shutdown, we didn't get data in October. And so the BLS said, you know what? We think sheltered inflation was zero in October, right? And that seeped into November as well. So we got a big positive tailwind from sheltered disinflation. That was expected. That was coming anyway. That was going to come in 2026. But we got the pull forward. That's okay. It is what it is. But despite that, core inflation is running close to 3%. Think about that, right? And now all of this other stuff is happening. I mean, I don't even think I look at core services inflation, including things like restaurant prices. Right? Of course you look at restaurant prices. I mean, look at it. So do I. I know. And restaurant prices are running quite hot. It's running about like four and a half percent. Vell above what you would think is normal. And I think, you know, that tells me maybe the labor market is not as weak as, you know, the hiring data is suggesting. I'm not saying it's in a great place. I don't think it's that weak either. Well, we talked about some of that. I'll pause that. I'll pause that. No, that's right. No, good stuff. I mean, we talked about that week or two ago. We've finally had two months in a row of positive jobs growth. Listen, not my time. But at least we stopped that seven months in a row, up, down, up, down, up, down. I think, oh, it was an ADP, ADP, so small businesses actually hired more people last month for the first time in like seven months. So it's little nuggets, little nuggets at the label and, oh, by the way, and national claims are always around 200,000 and continuing claims actually been going a little bit lower too. So there are some clues that the labor market isn't maybe as bad as they're telling us on TV. Um, I don't have too much more to say on that. You want to kind of let's talk about the market a little bit. Yeah. And then we'll talk about the government shutdown and earning season. Maybe that's what we'll go. So Drew, on the YouTube channel, you can put up the January barometer chart. Maybe you don't even have a yet. But this is how many days you just have three days looking good, right? Well, we're looking really good on cross. Yeah, as you can see on the YouTube channel, when January is higher, the next 11 months are up almost 87% of the time. And those next 11 months are higher, like 12% on average, much better than you're at any time returns. Know everyone. Yes, we manage billions of dollars. You don't blindly invest in the January barometer will be very, very clear. If you listen to podcasts, there's a lot of things you know, we look at, but I just stack it on top of, well, that sounds bullish when you put it with everything else is where I put that. And again, that's a positive thing. We'll see. Hopefully we don't jinx it. Get some drama out of Washington. They're all mess it up. It could happen. But as of now, it's looking like we're going to have a positive January. Well, it looks like President Trump is trying to like, yes, just last yesterday. Was it yesterday? Yesterday. It was on the 27th, it was like 25% tariffs on South Korean goods, right? I was like, what? Nobody even listened to it. It's like, let's not do this again. Can we just get through the next three days with a positive January and then we are hopefully off the basis? Yeah, exactly. You know, also some interesting concepts when we talk about technology, right? Tech is lagged. We get it. We know that. Then you look at like a NASDAQ 100 don't have a chart of it is visualized, everyone had a major peak in late October virtually gone sideways for several months. Well, to me, it's just biting time. I think large cap tech is the biting time. We are even way technology. We've said like a broken record when you do tech adjacent things are probably slightly overweight. I think that still makes sense in this environment. Big tech is just biting its time before it kind of takes back that baton. Oh, by the way, I was honest with the tech. I was on CBC yesterday with our buddy Dan Ives, take a wild guess who's still bullish tech. So let's just leave it there. You think? You think? Yeah. Well, we are too. Right? We are. We're not done. We're not done. bullish tech, but nobody is, but hey, he's been pretty right. You've been pretty right. So you look at tech, it's kind of fascinating to me, so now because large cap tech, yes, it has quarter-quilt struggle on a real basis. It's like, but then you look at like tech equal weight and small cap tech, both last week broke out to do highs. I might sound familiar because financials have been lagging for JC Prince mentioned a couple of times. He looks at like relative strength, like staples, relatives, financials, large cap financials. Well, that hit a five month, I guess in this particular case, high where if you did financials relative to what I'm getting at is staples are outperforming financials right now by a pretty wide margin and then that's going to inner market stuff. You don't always want to see that. But then if you look at small financials, specifically regional banks, they're breaking out. They're breaking out the like multi-year highs. Maybe you don't all time highs. Not 100% sure I'll top my head, but a lot of strength. So we've got this. Honestly, you can give any story you want, but I think to say tech as weak is not as clear as it sounds because equal weights do it well. Small caps do well. It's the mag seven who by the way, I'll have earnings this week. Not all sorry, four of them have earnings and other ones are coming up that are probably going to be positive. We'll see how the market takes it. What is your take on the tech lag? Oh, you want one more. Sorry, one more. One of my I love stats and funny little anecdotes, if you will. Round of sadness, the governor down in Florida. He came on X on October 29 and informed everyone on X only seven stocks are going up anymore. And I saw this thing to you. You got to be kidding me. I said, when that happened, I mean, it wasn't true then. It's never been true. Take a look at when the relative strength of the mag seven peaked everyone. It was October 29. I mean, you cannot make this up that they stopped leading the day a governor who's, you know, he has different jobs with telling us technical analysis is not one of them. That's when that that Concertion Bells are ringing in a big way. To me, so it's kind of got a funny, but what's your take on tech here? Let's go. I think it comes back. I think it comes back for a couple of well, given our given our models, we better say that. I'm going to honestly, I've kind of impressed our models who just find this year. In fact, pretty good. And tech hasn't done it. Well, if you told me small caps up like 8% and S a piece of like 1%, that's all I knew. I would say, I've been our models are struggling this year. Thank God. It's not the case at all. We're doing pretty well actually. So we'll wait equities. We have a lot of tech, but we also have a lot of metals and mining. I would say, obviously, one surprise for me is how quickly and how fast metals have got up, but set that aside. But I am a little surprised by financials, but I think there's some, you know, policy risks that similar to what we're seeing in the healthcare complex today, right? Right. Just getting slam at least some companies, right? But you look at tech coming back to tech. I look at some of the individual names. How far they are from their 52 week high. Microsoft, it's down about 14%. None of this is a recommendation. Nvidia down about 11%. Apple down 10%. Broadcom done 20%. AMD slightly better about 5 and 5 and a half percent. IBM's down, you know, 9% from all time highs. Oracle's down 49% Ryan Philanters down 19% from all time highs. So yes, there's a struggle, but something you've shared with our advisors on the regular macro Monday, Monday morning calls struck me because you were talking about 2027 earnings. How 2027 earnings expectations have been climbing. And for the S&P five, yes, for the S&P 500, it's about $358 per share. When we wrote our outlook, we actually put that line in the outlook that what is the 2027 expectation? Two months ago, when we wrote it, it was about $350 per share. Now it's a 358. So it's like about 2% increase already. And earning season hasn't even gotten started. And 2027 is actually going to matter as we move into this year, because, you know, when you think about next 12 month earnings, you know, every month we progress into 2026, it's going to grab more of 2027 earnings and less of 2026 expectations, right? So 2027 is a big deal. And the fact that it's as elevated as it is, it's about 14% expected growth relative to 2026, that's huge. But what needs to happen for that to materialize? In fact, tech has to come back because tech is a big part of S&P 500 earnings. It's not just prices and market gap. It's also earnings and revenue and profits and all of that, right? So I think tech comes back. Otherwise, you know, they're all wrong. And 2027 earnings expectations have collapsed. In fact, it's going the other way. Now I think prices catch up. I think tech rallies from here. Yeah, now I'm in that camp too. Good stuff there. I will say, I guess I'll do a little promo this Friday. So Friday, the 30th, yeah, the 30th, the last day of the month, we're doing a special fact versus feelings live stream. We're calling it social hour. We're going to try to do this on a Friday, maybe the last Friday of each month, an hour before the close, a two o'clock central, three o'clock Eastern time. We're going to join by Mr. Brian Belsky for the very first one. That should be amazing and awesome. And I will say like in the YouTube comments, maybe I'll add a link to it. But I think we added a link to your daughter's cookies a week or two ago. And I think YouTube takes that away. I think YouTube doesn't like sometimes we do those links. I think it's. Yeah. So she's still still selling cookies. Everyone, if you care for gold scout cookies, I'll put the link up. I'll try to put the link up, you know, no pressure. I mean, you know, if you have a sweet tooth, I do, well, tag a lot, tag a lot. I do like the lemon cookies, though. So I think it's adventurous, adventurous sums. I don't know. I order those from not not. Yes, from your daughter I did. I got to leave adventure adventures. Something's they were pretty good. They're new. They're like Oreo. So they're like an Oreo. That's an Oreo, but nonetheless, that's another word for it. It's like Kleenex tissue, adventure sums, Oreo, same stuff. Anyway, but now they were speaking of eating. Are you grabbing a drink this Friday? Yeah, I think we should. Yeah, I think they have something more happy hour. Exactly. So yeah, but there's this Friday and now before the close, we'll be promoting it all over our socials. Hopefully you've seen it, but again, a live back versus feelings to be a lot of fun. So we've been wanting to do for a while. It's more like a game or something. Like guess the drink we're going to show up with. There's something like this. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, do a shot every time Belzki says we're bullish. I better do that. Better do that. All right. So people ask of a tech. I'm curious. Is he bullish tech? I guess I'll find out. Find out. Find out. You know, let's talk about healthcare just for a second because it isn't a news. So the news came out that Medicare prices for next year. I believe we're going to be up 0.09%. So let's just call it flat. Now next year's 2027. So virtually, you know, not a big jump. Now that is going to pressure a lot of these margins on like United Healthcare, for instance, not a recommendation, but the Dow is down. The time we're doing this because you know, healthcare is down a lot. The rest of the market's up. Okay. So healthcare, I mean, every time I set us forward our team and on is every time I think, oh yeah, healthcare is looking good. Something like this happens. There is a lot of policy stuff when it comes to healthcare, which can be good or bad. Let's be very clearly be good or bad. But what you have us high take on that other than it's pressuring a group that honestly, it's kind of lagged. Some of those nature most have lagged for a while. It was lagging. It was sort of coming back and then boom, here we go again. I think it highlights policy risk in a midterm year. We're in a midterm year. We've talked about this a lot that we're seeing any number of policies come in and the general team being the administration wants to improve affordability. So from that perspective, well intention, but how you get there is a different question. Like how do you drop prices? Well, compress margins, right? Whether it's margins for healthcare providers, whether it's margins for financial companies by capping credit card interest rates. There's a reason financials are struggling. I think that's a surprise. We're talking about inflationary growth economy and we're talking about, you know, the yield code steepening. If you just tell me, hey, so the yield code is steepening. That would be a good environment for financials. Yeah, JP Morgan's down 11% from all time highs, visas down 13%, bookshies down 12%, back of America down 10%, Wells Fargo also down 10% from all time highs, right? So there's clearly a bit of a struggle in that financial sector complex. It's not participating in this rally. And, you know, as I said, there's some 500s close to all time highs. Well, the president's literally suing JP Morgan for $5 billion also. So you don't see that. Oh, is he? Yeah. What is that about? Oh, you didn't hear this one. He said, I'm in a JP Morgan. I can't keep track of it. Well, there's leave it there, but well, they don't want JP, Jamie Diamond's not going to be in the horse race, but Gerrus, my guess. Oh, I'm not anymore. I guess Diamond said some sort of negative comments about some things. You can go look this stuff up over in Davos to their next day or two. There was that little thing brought out. So anyway, yeah, go figure. All right. So we're going to talk about earnings. I want to wrap up earnings. And we'll talk about the shutdown and we'll end this week. You already kind of laid out. Estimates, right, for 2027. I've been going up even before earnings season started. That usually isn't how this works. Earning season. Yes, it's super duper early by the time people listen to this. We'll have had probably a lot of the big tech names. We're going to have more of a clue, but like 13 or 14% of S&P 500 had been in as of last week, 75% beat expected to be about 8 and a half percent earnings growth. Good chance. We're going to see double digit earnings growth. And all said, and that'll be four quarters in a row of double digit earnings growth. Anything else, one more for me, son of an alternative. Look at the mag seven, right? The mag seven is supposed to have earnings up about 20% this quarter. The 493 is ballpark four to five percent. I think one of the things that will happen when we look up most of the big beats. I think you're going to come from the 493. I think the 493 the rest of the economy are going to come in strong and and and justify kind of why the 493, the equal weights have done a lot better. But I'm sure tech will do just fine too. What are you looking for this earnings season? And then we'll wrap it up with the shutdown. Mostly the gap between profit growth for companies with more revenue coming from outside the U.S. versus companies with more revenue coming from within the U.S. You shared this chart. We don't maybe we'll put this chart drew up or Ryan could send you the chart. He put the he shared this with our advisors. I thought that was interesting. It's part of our story too. It's part of our outlet story. Global economic activity is picking up. That's not only good for global equities in the global bull market, but it's also good for U.S. multi-nationals. By the way, some of the biggest multi-nationals are also tech companies. There is that but also things like materials companies, right? So I think it's all playing into that same theme. commodity prices picking up. Global bull market, right? Not so good for bonds, but good for gold as well. So I think that's what I'm looking for with respect to earnings. One thing I'm keeping my own generally from a macro perspective, I don't really dive into earnings products and things like that. I don't listen to all that. Unless we have folks in the team and they sometimes share some great things that come out of those earnings calls. But otherwise, I'm looking at big picture stuff and this is one of them. Yeah, you and I are more top-down strategists. I mean, you look at the big picture and go down. Bottom-up strategist means you might look at individual companies and micro things or work your way up. But we put the chart back up now, Drew, because I want to pull up to describe what Sonu was saying. SAP 500 earnings, according to FACSET, there's supposed to be 8.2% in the fourth quarter year-rear. If more than half of a company's revenue comes from outside the US, so again, they're dependent on the rest of the world, those earnings are supposed to be up so to 12.6%. So wow, a lot higher. If more than half of your revenue comes from inside the United States, so more domestic by nature company, your earnings then are only, so only, air quotes only, so we have 5.5%. So again, it's a neat chart. And one that you said a couple of years ago was exactly flip-flop to this, but this tells us that the global economy is pretty good shape, right? Is that how you see that potential? Yeah, exactly. And it's good for the US, especially US large caps. This is where, you know, there's a reason we do like US large caps. And this is, you know, one reason, global economic activity is picking up. I mean, we do like foreign equities too. We are neutral. US was international, which means we probably have more international equity exposure than most other folks in this business managing models. You probably have like, it's like a 70/30 split, right? And I think a lot of people will probably be comfortable, uncomfortable with 30% international equities, especially when you look at the last 10 years, like wait a minute, I know international equities outperformed in 2025, but look at 2010 to 2024, right? But yeah, I think we don't underweight US equities by any stretch, and we overweight equities. So we overweight both US and international at the same time, but be a neutral one relative to the other. They're not picking a, you know, like a horse there to be clear, but be like both. Well said, because again, what happened, a lot of people missed the international rally last year, then you look at history and we've had these blips like 2017, for instance, we're one year arrested globe does well, then what happens? The US just takes the baton. I think we'd be okay. The US totally took the baton back, but I think we're going to have a lot more participation might be a broken record saying that, but I think there's a lot of other areas doing well. That's why instead of just picking one or two, pick a basket of things and hopefully still be overweight equities and still benefit. Last thing on that topic. Again, this is, we talked about the weak dollar, right? The weak dollar is something, I mean, gold going up and all that. It's all tied in, but it also helps foreign company earnings, right? It also helps US multinationals who have a lot of revenue outside because it's the US dollar weekends, local currencies abroad go up. That helps profit growth, right? That's a tailwind there. And it's also a tailwind for international equities. If foreign currencies are appreciating, that's a little bit of a boost. It's a tailwind for international stocks that are priced in US dollars. Well said there. So the last thing, there was virtually no chance of a government shutdown a couple weeks ago because the government's funded through the end of this month and then everything going on in Minnesota and I'm going to get too political on this. There's some issues going on clearly in Minnesota, but the issues with the government saying we're not going to fund, you know, Department of Homeland Security anymore. So we're going to shut the government down. Not our job to have an opinion on that. Our opinion is only what does it mean if we have a partial government shutdown starting in February? Very selfishly, very practically for myself. It means I will get PC inflation data, but I may now get payroll data to look at. That's what it means to you. That's such a, that's such a so new answer. Because the commerce department is funded and this gets the, you know, you were talking about a partial government shutdown. What does that mean? The commerce department is funded. But the labor department which releases payroll data, that's not funded. BLS is not funded. Ten of guns are not funded yet. Look, I think the odds of a shutdown are probably about coin toss right now, maybe 60 percent. It's likely ahead of a contact with coin toss. But I think they come to a deal fairly quickly. They figure this out. It looks like everyone's kind of on the same page, making the noises. Like, I think back to what happened in September and everyone has in their own corners. They're like, you know what? Screw you. Yeah, talking each other. There are a few groups always talking each other, but for the most part, I think they were pretty far apart. This time, I don't get the sense that that's the case. Well, yeah, I mean, we have choked the government shutdown. I've got the data. We can put this chart up actually drew. And I know I sent it. This is, I said, not all shutdowns are bearish. There's tons of shutdowns since the late 60s. You know, we gained two and a half percent. So during the 40 record, 43 day shutdown, we just saw last year, we gained 10 percent during the previous record, 35 day shutdown before on average. Yes, sometimes you're higher. Sometimes you're lower. I don't think shutdowns truly impact. But what did I think helped this one open? I guess the one before too, but I forgot this was once the airlines and airports started three to four hour waits because of TSA. That's what everybody I don't care where you sit on the aisle. Nobody wants to go to an airport and have to wait that long to miss your flight and be stressed and everything. So is TSA funded and during a partial government shutdown? Maybe we need to look that up because that might be maybe this last longer, because TSA is what really broke the camel's back on this. But I think you're on to say, I hope not, because B you add, I have several trips in February coming out. Yeah, I'm going to see you in Florida. Not Florida. Wrong one. I'm going to see you in California Diego. Yeah. I don't know where we're going. I'm on. And then Florida after that a month for you. That's what I was getting confused by. Yeah, but yeah, so you and I, we can promote that as well. We probably already mentioned that. Go ahead. Go ahead. Take it. Take it away. Go ahead. Yeah, March 10th. Is it March 10th? March 10th will be, I don't know if this is actually happening on Miami Beach, but I think it is. So I'm going to say future proof. It'll be that future proof citywide. We'll be there. The conference, Ryan and I will be doing facts with the feelings live on main stage. So yeah, come out and say hello. Yeah, that's the Tuesday, whatever that date is. The Tuesday will be at nine o'clock in the morning or three main stages and one of them doing our podcast. Obviously that's subject to change, what everything I just said, but that's the way we understand it. So listen, the government shutdowns out there. We've talked a lot about government shutdowns before. They're not fun. They bring up a lot of emotion, but at the same time for me, purely investing point of view, they cause a lot of drama, but honestly, they usually don't slow things down. All right, draw mine in my life. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'm sorry, I'm just big, but it sounds like you can't get your data. That was the joke for 43 days. Sony did nothing at the end of last year. I could have gotten fired. Yeah. You'll get fired for some day, probably something I did. We'll both go down together, but that's all right. We'll fall on fun doing it. All right. Anyway, anything else you want to wrap this up with, Sonny? No, I'm looking forward to seeing you and several of maybe Carson advisors in San Diego next week. So we're doing facts with feelings live from stage. So hey, this is the perk if you're a Carson. So come talk to our team if you're interested. Absolutely. Carson group.com. We'd love to talk a little bit more if you're a client and you're not too happy with your financial advisor. We have more than 500 of the very best financial advisors all over the world. And they work closely with Sonny every single day on the research side of things that we talk a lot on this podcast. Our models have done very, very well. It is what it is. You know, I mean, we're proud of that. So that's another little perk. And yeah, you got some flights come up. I fly to California tomorrow and go see Morgan, a great partner for. Say hello to Joe. Shout out. Joe always treats me right. He knows he knows. I said, Joe, I work for food. He knows he knows I'm a lot of California. Do better feed me good. So he knows. So yeah, so that'll be a lot of fun. And then we get to go to California to see many. I have three trips to California. I mean, I was a California last week. I mean, shout out to a friend Derek Besta as well. Yeah, yeah. It's always nice seeing clients. And by the way, I mean, not to keep going on about this. I mean, but he started with gold. I got so many questions about gold. But I didn't get the sense that people were invested in gold. They're like trying to figure out should be by gold now. And that's, you know, my perspective on that is, look, if you think it's a good gold is a good place in your portfolio. And if you're going to hold it for a long time, let's say three, five years, something like that. And you've talked about how you think we think this is a commodity super cycle is for things like gold. Yeah, you know what? Maybe it doesn't matter. You know, you don't have to wait to buy the dip. You can always average in dollar cost average and things like that. Buy it, right? If you think it has a good nice place in your portfolio, get to it. I wouldn't get too crazy with it. It's up a lot. Yes, it is up a lot. There's a going to go down. I have no idea. But I think the general trend direction is up. Yeah. Well, I think, yeah, I mean, we've talked about that before. But if this gold bull market ends like today, it'd be like one of the shortest bull markets. We've got gold data going back like hundreds of years. It's out there. You can see once this thing's break out and start to go, they tend to go higher. I mean, think about silver for a second, peak to 50 in 1980, peak to 50 2011, just recently broke out about 50. And now you blink and it's at $120. You know, so again, it's all relative. Yes. But I think this is a commodity super cycle. And you want to own some things that if you drop it, hit your foot and it hurts. That's where you want to be. We've constructed our portfolios, our models for our Carson partners and our clients to be in more of a 3% inflation world and a 2% inflation world that's been working. And we think it will continue to work. But when we're very clear, we still think it's a bull market for equities as well, which is a good scenario for a lot of different types of investors out there. So all right. We're hitting right about an hour. We probably need to be quiet. Yeah. I guess I'll just say this. This Friday is that live stream with Brian Belsky. Please be sure to follow us on our social channels. We'll promote that a lot. It'll be a lot of fun to talk with one of the big bulls that's been out there, but also he's been bullish within very right for a while. He's got a big theme for a major, major super cycle for a couple decades of a bull market. He's been at for a long time and improving right will ask Brian how many more years he thinks is left this coming Friday. Bring a drink. We'll have a laid back happy hour conversation. See you everybody then. Enjoy. Sonu. I'll see you in California, but we'll help sure I'll talk to you before then. So all right. Take care everybody. See you next week. Goodbye. Thank you. Information provided on facts versus feelings with Sonu Varghese and Ryan Dietrich are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. The statements and opinions of show guests may not be reflected of CWM LLC for its affiliates. Pass performance is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle. No strategy of sure success or protects against loss. To determine what may be appropriate for you, consult with your attorney, account, financial or tax advisor prior to investing. Guests on facts versus feelings are not affiliated with CWM LLC.