Rich Hribar's 5 Favorite Fantasy Football Picks

(upbeat music) Oh yes, we are back your favorite series returns that five players I cannot stop drafting with a week of the guest. You all know him, you love him, you hear about him on the show, even when he's not on the show. It is reached rebar from a sharp football analysis, Lord Reeves, how you doing my friend? I'm doing excellent guys, I appreciate you guys having me on. It's like a little Roto World reunion. I still miss the days of just, you know, coming into Connecticut and just throwing Josh's whole work day in the chaos and making him just not get any work done. I'll say that Reeves, that I'm a very routine oriented person when it comes to work. I try to space out my head of how much free time I can have and procrastination I can have in it. So you coming to the table and you coming to the desk, certainly did throw me off during those periods of time, but I've been the same thing right back at you. I'm like, Josh, what if we just watch like 10 minutes of Josh Allen Drop X? It was all the soccer whenever I was there, everyone was just like watching soccer. I can't believe that was true. People can actually write in a cubicle, it's crazy to me. I'll always say this, I didn't realize how little work people got done at work until I went to the NBC Sports as offices. Literally playing put putt for hours on end, Xbox, all that. So what a place, what a place. That's where we grew up. I mean, every single show you can go on reabs. There'll be some type of Rotter-Roll Blink. It's like the nine degrees of separation type stuff. That's what Rotter-Roll has brought us to take. - Yeah, we're like, it's like the shanning hand coaching tree. (laughing) That's what it is, 100%. Okay, speaking of, I'm sure we'll talk about some coaching trees and coaching changes during this. As I noted, you brought five of the players you can't stop drafting this summer. Again, it's early on May 27th as we are recording this, but who's up first? Who's the name that you cannot subtract? - Yeah, I'm gonna start with Terry McCloren, from the commanders. I think the commanders in general are kind of an undervalued basketball team. I think they're kind of really built for a basketball. You know, they got the ambiguous running backs, you know, JCM or Shod White, even K-Tron Allen. Interesting, you know, late pick in these, especially in underdogs, you got that Kyle Menangai vibe from a year ago. You've got Chig and Antonio Williams as like some late round guys. And you can even, if you want to get cute, you know, mix in guys like digs and a, you can hope that maybe one of them end up on the team before the summer's over. But Terry McCloren is kind of where I start with this team. He never really got on track last year. He missed, you know, nearly the entire summer due to that holdout. Then he had quad and core injuries very early in the season. Obviously, then, you know, the commanders were just in dire straits, you know, with the quarterback situation up and down all year. He only ended up playing in 10 games. He only appeared on 41% of the offensive snaps and 46 and a half percent of the team dropbacks. But when he did play, he remained a really effective player throughout the chaos of this offense. He had 2.2 yards per out run. That was 14th among all active receivers with 100 more yards or 100 more routes on the season. And he hit, when he was on the field, he had 31% of the team's targets and 46% of their area yards, 55% of his targets resulted in a first down or touchdown, which is actually third in the NFL. But what makes him interesting now kind of moving forward here is not just when you look at this depth chart and say, all right, it's the Antonio Williams and some guys behind him. He's going to get a bunch of targets. Or David Blow kind of coming in and saying, like, we're going to give Terry McClure and 10 targets a game. We want to just create explosives with him. It's that kind of top down marriage of, you know, Blow and the opportunity he has, because, you know, Blow comes from the Ben John-- it's our first Ben Johnson coaching tree higher, right? Like, is this like the new McVeigh coaching tree? Because everyone's-- like, half the league now is like some iteration from-- they've come from Sean McVeigh, who comes from Shanahan. So I'm very interested to see how this works, especially playing with Jaden Daniels, because he's already stated that they're going to feature more balanced offensive approach. They're going to have more patches with Jaden Daniels under center. And that's just something we haven't seen. Since Jaden Daniels has been in the NFL, he's been under shotgun for 93% of his dropbacks. 33 dropbacks from under center, so far, through a year and change, however you want to, you know, dissect the season last year. But being in shotgun so much has led to, you know, only a 45% pre-snap motion rate, which is 24th the past few years, and a 24.8% play action rate, which is 18th in the NFL. Those are going to go way up. When you look at Ben Johnson, what he did year one, you know, coming into Chicago and what he did at Cale Williams, that completely flipped, right? I mean, those offenses in Detroit and Chicago, 66% motion rate, 88% play action rate when they were under center. So we're going to see Terry McClaren get these kind of plays that just equal like fantasy high cholesterol targets, right? Motion, pre-snap or play action. Like we just haven't seen that. Even when he was getting targets under Cliff King's bearing, he was just stuck in that static role, lining up on the line of skim and scrimmage for 85% of his snaps. He was that left wide receiver for 75% of his snaps out wide. We already talked about just wide enough over there. He only ran 13 routes per game with pre-snap motion in the past years, which is wide receiver 60. So I look at Terry McClaren, I look at the target opportunity and then the role change. Him getting more intermediate crossers. What I really want to see David Blow do in year one is what we saw Ben Johnson do. And that's he's able to create guys with horizontal spacing. And we haven't really got to see Terry McClaren do a lot of that in the NFL. And I think he's completely capable of it. So I look at Terry McClaren and he's kind of where I start. Like when I get like my second wide receiver, I'm just Uber happy to grab him. Yeah, so look at the underdog projection lobby. He's at 949 receiving yards for the season. That's more than players that are going the third round. Like all throughout 10 row, Mcmillan is in that category. So you're getting a discount versus the projections. And then just to look at the sample size in the games with Jaden Daniels, he's the wide receiver 14 on wide receiver 26 usage. So he's being priced as the wide receiver 25. So you're getting a discount on that. So even if it's just like the same situation as it has been the last two seasons, and there's a chance that it's even better this year, there's a discount. So like if we can kind of like parlay where it's all together where Jaden Daniel stays healthy, he improves going into his third season, blouse an upgrade over Cliff Kingsbury and the depth tried around them is worse. And the tackle play is better than all of a sudden. Like you can have like a wide receiver to run out for Terry McClaren quite easily. Yeah, Reeves, I knew that you and Hayden would come with some amazing undeline metrics. So I went back to the tape and watched all of his targets from last season. Something like really stuck out to me was everything just looked really basic. And maybe this was going to Univark, Smar Yoda and him coming into lineup. There were just so many hitch and curl routes. And then I went back and like dug into just how many there were. 37% of his targets last season in Terry McClaren were hitches. That is drastically different than where it was in previous seasons and throughout the rest of his career. So those are just static routes without much crossing action, without much movement. And what we always talk about with Ben Johnson is, hey, I'm on Ross St. Brown on these cross-round. Jaymas and Williams get the ball in his hands, Jarge of the catch. We saw it with Luther Burn, we saw it with DJ Moore, Colson Loveland, all these guys. Like that is just going to be such a different use case for Terry McClaren that to me with his athleticism and under scenes going to be coming up on this age 31 season. But it's just so much better than these like catch and fall attempts in zone cup. Except for three, five speed. We don't think of them like that fast because we don't see the yards after the catch stuff recently. But like he could do all the games and play stuff that you're mentioning. Just to put an hour to that, 37% again last season were hitches. That's compared to 15.2% for the rest of his career. Rebs, I guess I do have a question. David Blow did necessarily coach with Ben Johnson. It was just a player in the system that Ben Johnson was coaching. I do remember going back in press conferences and Ben Johnson noting that David Blow drew up some plays that worked for the opposition on any given week. But that is something I do want to factor in here. And David Blow is actually on this, Commander's coaching staff last season. So it's not like this is the quarterback coach or passing in coordinator or so and so forth directly from Ben. But I assure you that this is the direction they want to go in based on, you know, just to coach speak and the player speak that we've heard so far this all season. Yeah, I want to understand. I mean, he's doing he was there when they were doing all that stuff in Detroit. You know, I'm assuming that he absorbed a lot of that. And we're looking to see kind of what he pride away from Ben Johnson. And hopefully he proves to be as adaptable too as Ben Johnson was in his year one in Chicago. Hey, I know we just talked about Terry McClure and versus Devonte Adams on yesterday's show. You and I were both on the Terry McClure and end of this. Reeves, would you be taking Terry over to Monte Adams this year? I would and it's only because of the, you know, the factoring in just the Devonte Adams is in the same spot this year that Terry McClure was in last year where we knew like there was just inevitable regression coming, like touchdown regression and Devonte Adams has made his whole career out of scoring touchdowns. I don't want to act like he's not going to score any touchdowns at the Rams next year. But when you just look at the opportunity, the most end zone targets since that date that date has been recorded. Matthew Stafford with a 7.7% touchdown rate. Like we know that those are coming back to the pack this year a little bit. When you actually look at Adams's usage when he played, I mean, he was right around wide receiver 30 type of like production and like without the touchdowns. Like his, his yardage was amongst the lowest in over 10 years. So I do think when we remove some of the touchdowns from Devonte Adams, we're going to start to see like some of that, you know, kind of pull away from him. Because Puka, as long as Puka's on the field, like Puka's getting the ball a lot. All right. setting it back to you, Reeves. Uh, second. player. Who is it? I'm going to stay in that same kind of bucket of cluster because I do take these guys often the way I've been drafting, especially early on. I mean, we're recording this before June is, you know, I'm in the title wave of getting largely, you know, two to three running backs, you know, below down five. It was due to last year. So we're shopping for wide receivers in like this bucket, you know, rounds, you know, five to six. Like, I don't have a lot of teams where I'm like, oh, man, I'm looking at Basel II. It is my army too. So this is where I'm grabbing a lot of receivers with upside. A lot of my draft approach last year was actually written about like the the wider seaver dead zone and starting to grab guys like in round five plus. And in the same area, another guy that I usually piggyback off off of with Terry McClaren, if I can get both or pivot if I don't is Christian Watson, who goes like a couple spots after him, like in that wider zero 28 wide receiver 29 29 range. He's a guy when you look at last year, you know, recovering from the ACL when he came back, cause another guy was just really hyper efficient, you know, came back in the 10 games he was in at over 600 yards and six touchdowns from weeks eight through 17. See him playing week 18. He was seventh among all wider severs and yards were out run. He was wider seaver 13 and area yard chair. He's had three years and his rookie contractors been over two yards per out run. He's the wider seaver 15 and yards per out run since the end of the NFL. The wider seaver 17 and fantasy points were out run and the wider seaver 13 and fantasy points per target. Now you look at the Packers Romeo dobs left during free agency, Don Tavine Wix traded away. Dobs was the only packer wide receiver to run a route on over 50% of the drop acts last season. He was at 75%. Jayden Reed is so far. We'll see if his role gets extended. He's only run eight career routes and one to two wider severs sets. It's like one of my favorite sets. I keep using like eventually he starts playing in those plays, which is like so when the Packers are playing their base offense. I expect Christian Watson to be on the field all the time. Now this is the rub, right? And this is why I like him a little more, especially in a site like Underdog that's not full PPR. It's a little more explosive play driven and you can kind of insulate yourself if not having to worry about maybe the injury factor as much as like in a paying the price in a redraft leak, right? A management lead because the rub with Christian Watson again, he's missed multiple games every year was career. He has like kind of that Jameson Williams, though style of like upside paired with like volatility. And then let's we're recording this a day after the Josh Jacobs news. I don't know if that's going to have any impact on the season at all, but the Packers are pretty limited if Josh Jacobs is going to miss any time this season and pivot options that they have right now in terms of pre-agency. Maybe they pull off a trade. And if we get any type of situation where the Packers are just forced to throw more than they have these past three years, there's another, you know, domino kind of following in his favor where we're just getting a lot more routes than we've seen Christian Watson have over his rookie contract. So last year he was the wider see or 40 in fantasy points per game expected just based off his usage. Like how high how high do you think that can climb to if he's going to, you know, run 25% more routes like because he's always going to be efficient. Like Jordan loves to good. The floor is too good. Christian Watson is too good. So we always know he's going to have I'll produce like his usage like do could we have like the wider see per 25 in like expected points where he can get like all the way up until like a top 15 season like that crazy. I think you could look at just the last two years like when James and Williams has run hot like that type of player right. Yeah. You know that kind of upside and we have no idea like I said, are they going to play Jayden Reed in those one to two wider see resets that we do and we still don't know what we're going to get at Matthew Golden. I don't mind even taking to grabbing those other two guys. I prefer Golden just because of the underdog scoring format than Jayden Reed, but I don't mind getting either of those two guys either just because the and we don't also don't know when we're going to see Tucker craft be Tucker craft again. It could be earlier than expected, but we also know I've seen the you know, and we've all died on the injury hill like the optimism hill. So it's like a lot just this lines up I think for Watson based on, you know, the format of this type of tournament and you know, scoring on a site. I love this pick for many of the reasons that you said, but also if round five is typically when you grab one of your first two wider receivers, then you're giving us a name at the top of round three or excuse me, round five in term, McLaren and at the end of round five with Christian Watson and the 11th pick there as a wider receiver 29. I went back and just asked myself, okay, why was last year when he was on the field for those 10 games more consistent than in previous years? I mean, you know, the highest catch rate he's had in his career, the most yards per game at 61. And again, when I went back and watched, a major part of it was that there were more gimme's and they're more outside breaking routes and then dug into the numbers again here. His outrounds jumped from 7.7% of his targets in his first, what, three seasons up to 35% of his targets this past season. And those are also, you know, lower a.plays. And it's just we know how exposed he can be. We know how much of an ambitious thrower that Jordan love can be and those plays do break models and the expected points. But if we also get the gimme's here of hey, third and four, he's the player, he's the one in motion, he's the one that's getting the separation and he's the one they're targeting underneath. And that just adds like a baseline performance and baseline production, Hayden to like a player who has struggled with that stuff and has kind of been a spiked week guy in previous season. I know one of the packers wider receivers if not two of them are like severely underpriced. And I have the same read as you reaves where I know that Christian Watson's good. He's going to play a lot. I think there's a chance that Matthew Golden's going to be good and that he's going to play a lot. And then I think Jayden Reed, I know it's pretty good by my doubts is going to play. So I'm kind of looking at Watson and Matthew Golden as the two packers players that I'm like most intrigued by. And if you really look at the projections of it all, Christian Watson's like not that dissimilar to like you said James and Williams, Luther Burden, some of these players out there where like we're anticipating their roles to increase or that there's hyper efficient players. He's the one that just priced way after those guys. And it's like not next to like Colson Leblanc who I want to be drafting. So he's definitely the target out of this much. And we know it's it's because of the health right like in your injury prone to your not and he's missed time every year. And that's what's kind of kept him in that get the bottom of I think that kind of tear. I think you can conclude out Pierce kind of in there too. And then I think that's like the firewall. Then you start to get into some projection with some of the other guys like when you get to Marv the rookies, what are we going to get out of BTJ. That's why I think he's at the bottom of that of that list. But if you just run into one season where he just stays on the field, we know we're getting fantasy points. And he's healthy right now. And he's 27 years old. So like it could have just been bad injury luck. And then for the next five years, he doesn't miss any time. Like that's just how it works sometimes. All right, you kick things off with Terry McClore and Christian Watson. By the way, Reeves has and is a part of one of the best draft guides and the draft kits in the business that's over at Sharp football. He already has top two 50 rankings, positional rankings, thinecy rookie rankings, all that type of stuff. So we'll definitely link that in the description down below for you all to check out. No, a lot of you did last summer. All right, let's talk another position. Give us your third player that you brought to the table here today. Yeah, my third guy is my favorite guy. It's actually the player when I run my rankings against ADP. It's the guy is the largest gap and it's Justin Herbert. And you might say, well, just Herbert goes as a top 10 quarterback. Yeah, that's how aggressive I am on Justin Herbert this year. And I know that like a lot of people, he's like kind of like an eye rolling inducing player just to many because they're like, oh, I'm sure he wins something, right? But I can. I care about I care about fantasy points. I added Justin Herbert is literally set up to score a lot of fantasy points this season. I mean, we know we know what happened last year, right? Like we don't really need to to talk about like the complete rear. We went through if the old mentioned it, you know, starting the year without Roshan Slater. Joe all only appeared in six games. Justin Herbert was hit on 129 dropbacks last year while being ninth in the NFL in dropbacks led the NFL. Kind of puts some perspective on that. Bo Nix had 669 dropbacks most of the NFL. He was only at 71 times. Yep. It's just absolutely crazy. And we talk about the Chargers offensive line. They're most frequently used offensive line combination last year. And this is already accounting for Roshan Slater, but not even starting the year. It was only in the field for 16 and a half percent of their offensive snaps was the lowest rate in the NFL. It wasn't just Joe all being injured. It wasn't just for Sean Slater not starting the year. Bradley Bozeman and Zion Johnson are the only guys here. Yeah, every game. Neither one of them is on team. That's derogatory, by the way. Yeah. Reeps, what blows my mind though is we always talked about the tackles being injured and bad, but that was the guard center guard combination that the Chargers wanted to start every single game and they were brutal in terms of every single phase of cast protection. Yeah, I'm a guy back then didn't work out. And we've seen we've seen Justin Herbert operate at a high level fantasy quarter. Obviously, his second year in the league had the QB2 overall finish. He was the QB3 and overall points before Alts injury last year without Roshan Slater and some kind of moving parts. And he was the QB4 and expected points at that point. Then everything just fell off a cliff with this offense after Alts injury. They were like one of the worst teams in exposed to plays. They actually fell to 27th in yards per play. He averaged 0.56 fantasy points per dropback with Alts down the field went to 0.43 without him. That was a difference between QB7 on the season and QB21. And now we're getting this kind of big boom with Mike McDaniel coming in. And I do think that this is a huge deal, even bigger than I think because everyone knows it's good. But think about this. If you just look at the shanty hand side of the coaching tree, the mixed shanty hand side. because I want to remove the McVeigh side for a little bit because McVeigh was the first kind of guy to like alter it. His thing when he broke off the shanahan coaching tree and created his own like kind of branch, he's like, "I'm getting rid of the fullback. I'm Adam a slot receiver. We're gonna start using our, you know, guys like Robert Woods and Cooper Cup and now Pukin' Akua, we're gonna get them on the move, get them blocking online backers, and, you know, we want to be able to run against all this big nickel, while we're in nickel, and then when we have to throw, while we're in 11, and then when we have to throw, we've got a fullback on the field. We've got a plus guy that can help us. You know, it's funny. His last year, now he's turning the tide to say, "We don't really have a good third rider receiver. What if we just get teams to go base and try to create explosive passing plays?" But the shanahan side where Mike McVeigh came from, he did, he's like more tried and true. He added more pre-stamp motion than we usually see from the shanahan side, but he's playing a fullback. He brought his guy over again too. He's like his algin gold, his use check, bringing him everywhere he goes. But we know we're gonna see a lot more tighter splits. We'll get this one more pre-stamp motion, but when you look at the shanahan side of this coaching tree, this is a system that has had high end efficiency from guys like Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Greasey, Matt Shaw, Derek Carr, Sam Darnal last year, even Nick Mullins, a big year in Kirk Cousins. Two of Tungal Loa had a 4.8% touchdown rate every year with Mike McDaniel. Get some context that Patrick Mahomes has even had a 4.5% touchdown rate since 2022. Jordan Love, who is playing under the same iteration as offense, is one of four quarterbacks of a 5% touchdown rate or higher in each of the past three seasons. When you look at when this system has had an elite Taliban caliber quarterback, these guys have won MVP's Aaron Rogers 2020 2021 MVP 48 touchdowns 37 touchdowns Matt Ryan in 2016 38 touchdowns. This system, that's it. Really, you got to go back to John O'A, then to find another guy that played in this Mike Shanahan coaching system that was an elite talent. They have made water into wine out of a bunch of guys. And now we've got another elite talent that guy has all the tools and we're putting him in this offense with good weaponry and improved offensive line just by proxy of having his two tackles back on the field. I think Justin Herbert is a guy that you want to bet to win MVP this year. I think he's a guy that's going to score a ton of points. I think this guy's limit for him. He also was running around a little bit more last year. Obviously that was more out of necessity, but that's a good fallback plan that if everything kind of starts falling apart, he can run around a little bit more. Obviously the talent's outrageous. He's kind of modern L way like to be honest. Yeah, because spin the football down the football field like that. My question to you, I'm totally sold on this. Which wide receivers and tight ends. Are you bringing along with him? Like are you also like really into Quentin Johnson? Is it Lad McConkey all the way into round three? Is it Gadsden? Is that all of them? I mean, if you're thinking you're calling Sean MVP, it's probably going to be all of them, but. And my own base just being like, hey, I want to draft Lad McConkey as often as humanly possible this year means the fifth pick in the fourth round right now. Yeah, it's all these guys. I don't want to like necessarily have to just force them. It's kind of I think dealers choice. I think we're going to see all these guys play a little bit with McConkey being the guy that is going to be probably more locked into the. Some brow participation stuff that's going to be fluid, but even Quentin Johnson, like I know he's like a punching bag when he's gotten better every year in the NFL like he creates explosives. You don't think Mike McDaniel is going to create explosives with Quentin Johnson. Then you have tray Harris who factors in like he's good in the run game. Does he weasel his way in and playing in some of these tighter slits. And I know a rendez-gadson is a guy that I'm not going to want and redraft, but in this type of format. You should still want a rendez-gadson because his perturget stuff is going to look awesome. If the thing that's going to hold him back is from a redraft stance is you're never going to plan because you never know he's going to have a 40% repartus patient or like a 70% repartus patient. Then you have like all the the injury stuff that could happen, but in he's fallen. I think he opened it like tight and nine tight and 10 and I think he's dropped since the addition of David and Joku who you can also throw in here too as a late round. Kind of guy that to soak up maybe some touchdown production or some dominoes a windfall through injuries or just them playing more to tight and stuff. I mean, yeah, I think all these guys are just in board on board to add here, but I think it's going to be a conglomeration like it's not going to be like a Julio Jones 2016 right. I think it's going to be just everyone kind of contributing. I think we're going to see Mike McDaniel really back in his bag this year with this with this just talent pull it has. I mean, it's pretty simple to make the case that you mentioned the offenses and just overall points that Mike McDaniel produced in Miami. And that was with a quarterback that defenses caught up to his physical limitations, you know, certain others of field he just could not attack extended plays just were not an option there with Justin Herbert. He doesn't have any of those limitations and it's like there is no ceiling to this in a crazy way. So yeah, you've been mentioned Hayden some of the Russian performances they were outstanding Russian performance. Yes, I mean 60, 62, 57 and a touchdown in 66 yards. I'm certain if I went back and watched this a lot of those would be scrambles and running for his life. So hopefully he doesn't have to do that as often, but we know the athleticism is there if he has to put the team. Yeah, you had a career high scramble rate. It was a 2% higher than his previous high. So there was a lot of I got to get the lot of here. But he was so banged up like you said all those quarterback. It's like when he was scrambling around you can see in how much pain he was in he was still like going to war. So like, yeah, this is this is a great call. This makes me want to do a lot more research on Quentin Johnson because if we're going to get some like 35 plus touchdown season out of Justin Herbert in this offense. I mean, Lad and the conkeys not going to score 15 touchdowns most likely given a size like it's going to be somebody else in this offense. I want to make sure we're not over thinking Quentin Johnson right now. The thing about this this this take which I know is completely you're very bullish is there are people that just don't want to deal with Justin Herbert. He's not really moved. Yeah. Hey and I have been going through the Titan conversation and in previous years reeds. We've loved to you know build this doctor Frankenstein late round Titan room. I think that's becoming more and more difficult because those Titans that we drafted late last year now being drafted earlier and earlier. So is there a Titan on the board that you can't stop drafting this year. Yeah, I've tried a bunch of approaches this year at Titan and you know one of the things that keep getting hung up on is I love the top three from a town perspective. There's a reason that the top three right like these are very good diverse players you know in Tramock bride. I'm not really a rock bowers and Colson leveling who I would include in that especially when you factor in like the way Colson love it ended his season like there's a lot of upside here in again that Ben Johnson offense. Ben Johnson was kind of copying that McVeigh approach with way better personnel to end the year like when he saw Sean McVeigh running at 13 personnel. I like had to do it too like when you look at the he couldn't run the old McVeigh offense with the player personally had Ben Johnson kind of looked at was like I have got better personnel to do this with Colcom and Colson love their way better than Colby Park two is a little bit underrated but like you know you know Davis Allen and if Tyler Higby is available right and Terrence Ferguson doesn't really count the 13 personnel I refused to acknowledge that he's a lot to count as a tight end because all too fast all did is run 25 year go round. I love that he's also fun guys you did it make the cut here for me but if you look at the tight end position in the past five years like it's had a lot more correlation to just like raw opportunity the last five tight end ones have just outright run the most routes at the position. And to me that's a hang up for love and bowers completely nuking is that both of those teams are going to be playing with very run oriented philosophies and maybe they just don't run the raw routes and the McBride just has so many pulling factors of just natural aggression he ran 121 more routes the next closest tight end last year that's like four he basically four extra games then the next closest title cardinals were number one in neutral pass rate last year no chance that repeats. And you have like the quarterback stuff like the way the cardinal schedule if anyone is like really you know a week out week and a half out from the schedule stuff the cardinals got absolutely nuked I really think they're schedule unless Jacobi percent absolutely wins this whatever holdout he's doing that we're going to see all three guys because there's no on quick on board for Carson Beck I think it's going to be they're getting rubbed and they're going to have to go from percent to mince you then to back we probably see all three at some point this year. So like with paired the natural aggression like it's hard to just like go all in on McBride and we know there's a new boy he provided them highest positional leverage from tight end one to tight end to in terms of tight end to scoring a percentage of the tight at one's points ever in the history of fancy football. So like that's just going to naturally make you want to go to the field and like well even loving bowers love and it's like man like are they going to just get the raw routes in the offenses there and maybe there's a chance right that the Raiders of that bad and you could get the we also have the rookie factor to whenever fan Fernando Mendoza starts no no tight ends ever been the tight end one overall attached to a rookie quarterback that started half the games or more and we haven't seen we only seen three guys be a tight end three or higher in overall scoring so there's a lot of like pulling factors I've tried some teams right grab the ball and I end up still just like really loving the depth that still tight end versus kind of the depth the running back wide receiver so I found the teams I like the most so far and I say like subjectively it could well we will you look at a 10,000 foot view come February and be like oh yeah you just needed that Kyle pits game right that you got the playoffs last year. But I really like the later round guys and one of my favorite later round guys is Isaiah likely right. right now. So if you want to look for like tight end breakouts in terms of historical, like ADP or just guys that hit, you want guys that can potentially be the lead target in their passing game or worse the second target in their passing game. Since 2010, 65% of all tight end one scores were either the first or second pass catcher on their team. Only 19.1% of all tight ends selected after their teams wide receiver two finishes at tight end one that year likely goes after neighbors, but have had ahead of the other guys. So he's right in this bucket of what we look for. We don't know when neighbors is going to be back 100%. Like, could he just lead the team in targets? It's in the range of outcomes, I believe, because I think we already see some cannibalization from the wide receivers. Like mooney, Malachi fields and dairy slayin. There's a lot overlap with those guys want to run routes. So like, will those guys kind of eat each other like snap shares up? We know that there's a mat naggy like question here, but one thing mat naggy's done it all stops. He's another guy that likes to run a lot of two tight end stuff. Jackson Dart last year was right around the league rate in targeting tight ends. But here's the thing. He was the QBA in on target rate to tight end throws, but he was QB 27 and drop rate is why. The CEO. Yeah. I like the one. I think he's a play in the two tight ends up, but there's a reason they wanted to upgrade a pass catcher. Like, he left a lot of plays on the field. And then the other thing is too is like I brought up the where the job since going like look at some of the running backs and wide receivers, you know, going against him. Like you're taking him in a range where you have to go against like Tyrone Tracy and the Jonah Coleman's and Keaton Mitchell, Cleel Shakir, who's this is not the format for Cleel Shakir. Yo, Jaylen Cocher, who I do like like guys like Omar Cooper, like I'm just way more comfortable shopping at the price range for the tight ends. And there's some other tight ends I like in this range too, but I actually have a higher projection. I likely than and I think he's under price. So I've been getting him the most out of that group. So for redraft, I think he's even a better pick because most likely we're assuming like neighbors going to miss September. And there's tight ends who are being drafted ahead of them or right around them and George Kidd on Tucker craft to we don't know about their early parts of their season coming off of injuries. I think in like redraft leagues, if you drafted Tucker craft and then a couple of rounds later wanted to go Isaiah likely and maybe there's a chance you're just starting Isaiah likely out of the jump while bleak neighbors is banged up. And then afterwards you can drop them move on find the next breakout guy if Isaiah likely doesn't even pan out. So I hear your case in Bestball. I think in this redraft leagues, I think when week one comes around, I think we're going to have a pretty sweet projection for for the new for agent. Rebes, that was an interesting pitch. Let me pitch you on something. How different of a profile is it with what you just said about Isaiah likely target competition top to target getter all that type of stuff on the team? Then Chigal Quanco, who goes about two rounds later at the eighth pick of the 13th round as now a member of the Washington commanders. I do like Chig a lot too. I though one thing I worry about Chig is just like he is the worst run blocking tight in the NFL. And it may not matter. You want to be on a team like you want to have the Harold fan and run out of last year. If you're a terrible run blocker, where your team just has to throw and you're high enough on the target packing order, you can score fantasy points. So I do think there is some kind of a concoo like Harold fan of the Json C that you could draw too. So it's not a big massive difference. I think likely to go play on a little more run downs than a concoo. But I do like a conco as well. Like I led off with the commanders pitch. Yeah, I think he's my most drafted player at this point, which maybe says something about where I'm drafting in late may yet with likely I went back and watched him and stuff. To me, some of his best plays were the off script extended play stuff. Yep, like staying on a string with his quarterback and Jackson Darke's going to do that. He's going to drop his eyes and you know, pick up and create space and then look down the field. He did last year as a rookie and he'll do it also during his second season. All right, one more name, Richie Bar. I know this is a Lord Reeves special hit us with it. Yeah, I mean, it's been so long since we had a little, you know, Konami that's available at cost, man. You got to hit him with a little up up, down, down left, right, left, right, B.A. Start. Malik Willis is my guy here, especially man, and you talk about like this is like the format. You're telling me I could get a running quarterback that fits all builds. He can be your QB two where you go powerhouse QB, you know, Josh Allen or spending on a Joe burrow or anyone up top. He can be part of your QB three, you know, Frankenstein. And I never have to pick which week to start him, right? I just get the soak up the weeks to get him like I can't think of a better kind of pick in like the QB 20 range. We we know he was able to kind of resurrect his career in Green Bay. I don't know like how much is real from the efficiency on the small sample because when you look at like fantasy points per snap, he's number one with a bullet the past two years. Like zero point seven three fantasy points per snap for some context Lamar Jackson zero point six two then Josh Allen zero point six one or up next. He's not going to be that kind of player not on this Miami dolphins team, which is definitely being priced in. It's really to me like about like the cost at first because even guys like Justin Fields last year, we didn't we didn't even know Justin Fields was going to get the be able to start like that was we we knew he'd start the year but we didn't know he'd survive the year and he ended up not because we knew he was not a good quarterback to serve like in the NFL like he was on his third stop with four team in four years. He's on his fourth team in four years now and he didn't make it long enough but like Malik will also has a lot of runway here to at least finish the years the starter and he's being priced in as just like hey he's a he's a he's a QB three you can grab with them but when you look at the game that we talked about before I got on here and you guys were going over the names. The game that kind of won me over a little bit was the last time we kind of saw him start against the Baltimore Ravens in that Saturday night game. I can't remember if it was a Christmas game or not but Derek Henry ran for like a zillion yards but in that game Green Bay at a 75% dropback rate in that game. It was the highest that Malik will have had in his career. Josh Jacobs didn't play left that game with an injury and he was out there winning it and was playing well. We know he can he can run right like he had a 15% scrambler with Green Bay. It was the highest rate in the NFL behind him. Jayden Daniel is a second over the past two years and he ever just nine yards for scramble which is fifth in the year. So the Russian production is at least going to insulate him for having like a high floor. He's the original throwback canami guy. When I started when I wrote that original article which is 2013 date myself here. It was about Tim Teebo. It was about you know and we it's it's about how these guys have a high floor. Remember when Tason Hill started a couple years ago at quarterback having that high floor well since 1990 there have been 47 quarterbacks that have run the ball a hundred times or more in a season. 41 of those 47 quarterbacks have been a top 12 quarterback and fantasy points per game. 30 of them have been top six scores. I don't think we're going to get that out of league. Well it's not with this infrastructure but the only guy that was even lower than QB 18 and points per game. Now mind you this guy's going QB 21, QB 20 right in that range was Lamar Jackson in 2018 and he only has his production ding to be because he only started seven games. It was like come in for like rushing plays but when he took over as the weekly starter that season he was the QB 11 and points per game and we're talking about some bad QBs we have that that thousand yard rushing just in field season we've got guys like Teebo who I brought up to Rod Taylor like I think format for best ball he fits everything that you're looking for that big stigma of the Miami Dolphins is glossed all over his ADP so Malik will this is kind of the throwback of the original brand and I had a brand back he's easily my highest drafted quarterback right now. Yeah this is just like it's like the easiest call to me this year I have him and Kyler Murray just like ranked way higher than where they're currently being drafted now the issue is we've talked about there's like 17 quarterbacks I really like and they're kind of hard to parse through. I like Justin Herbert is kind of the statue guy and then Malik Willis is the last guy where I think there's maybe a tear drop to somebody else Josh in our little chat here I want to show off this advanced stats page if you can open up this link on the the shared screen where Malik Willis is in EPA per dropback and then also in success rate or in completion percentage over expected he is totally by himself we're not talking about EPA per carry here we're talking about EPA per dropback so in this small sample size going back a couple seasons now he is completely by himself so we're factoring in that he's most likely not a good quarterback but there's a chance that he's actually a good quarterback who also runs a ton so if that's the case then you're gonna like talk about all the stuff that we've just talking about plus that he actually might just like carry this dolphins offense to a level that most people can't expect right now yeah I mean I went back and watched all of 50 of his dropbacks from last season I thought there was a real rhythm to his game obviously there's athleticism when working outside of it and out of structure either throwing on the move or straight up scrambling but we talked about that Ravens contest and again I understand that everyone threw in the Ravens last year and their defense just wasn't as good as in some years past but what really caught my attention was one his willingness to throw down the seam outside the numbers these big time vertical routes some really tight window stuff too but also they were chunk plays from under center and like some real comfort from under center too and I think when they signed Miami Dolphins Malik Willis and I looked at who the new play collar is in Bobby Slowak in my brain I instantly jumped to okay this is drastically different than rookie season C.J. Stroud how is this gonna work this gave me a bit more optimism for it because you know he kind of took on the mannerisms of Jordan Love and really I think embedded himself in that Green Bay Packers offense and with Bobby Slowak some of this best stuff during that rookie season for C.J. Stroud was going from under center five seven step drops a protection plan around him and these big time vertical routes and these big time crossing routes. And so I actually think the fit is a lot better than I originally thought as soon as they signed Malik Wallace. So I really like this pick. And Reeves, I love that, like, you know, here we are and can make a pick in 2026 that in 2016 it was easy to do and it feels like over the last five years that everyone has caught up to, you know, the strategy and finally we get the one chance to do it and yet Malik Wallace is going, you know, after Baker Mayfield and Tyler Shock and a bunch of other names. So this is pretty cool. Yeah, and partially was just the room got smarter. I mean, they saw they saw the floor that these types of guys held. And I think recent, recent C is kind of, you know, crept in some guys that maybe were overpriced based on their acumen, acumen of quarterback play, obviously Justin Fields. Like we already saw Justin Fields change teams twice and he was still getting drafted as like QB 11 last year. That's the, and then everyone's kind of burnt and then the Anthony Richardson kind of the Asco. But I think that's kind of being overduced here and it's actually insulating, especially like said in Bestball because in obviously the dolphins, right? Like everyone knows like the dolphins are they got like what 200 and dead cap like this year they're openly like kind of retooling here. But it's all priced in here. Like like he just runs around. He's going to give you weeks that are usable in matter what build you have. And then if like Hayden said, there's just a couple games where you get a two passing touchdown game with the rushing. He's gonna he's gonna have a spike week and he's gonna easily be in your lineup. Yeah, last two notes, the dolphins. They have at least three quality offensive linemen. Their center might be the best and lead. Their left tackle is emerging as well. They have added Kate and Proctor early on. So I think like keep the offensive lines separate from the skill guys and then second to that. In Bestball, everyone's so focused on stacking as we should. When quarterbacks don't have past catchers who are ahead of them on the ADP board, there's no reason to be drafting those players. Everybody else is focused on the other quarterbacks. So in the rare circumstances when we do have a quarterback, where all of his past catchers or just one of his past catchers is going ahead of them. Those guys traditionally have been a little bit underpriced just because everybody else is so focused on drafting or stacking their quarterback with the guys that they had already drafted. So I think that if Malik will us had one past catcher going in round five, we would see him jump up a full round. So it's just one of these weird scenarios because the past catchers are so bad. There's no reason to be bringing him up. So I think there is an arbitrage opportunity just based off of how people are drafting in Bestball right now. Great, great point. Sreves, you said it all. Anything else you want to leave us with? How people can find your work? Yeah, you can go over to sharp football analysis.com. Last year I had a fun promo. I'm going to do another one this year. It's going to be different at least. But if you do use promo code underdog, you can get $10 off of the bundle, which kind of gives you the draft kit for free. And it makes like the breakdown basically be $7 a week for in season stuff. So you can follow along with the worksheet stuff that Josh is quoting and Winks is rolling his eyes. Feeling like why are you bringing this stuff every week? That was so good. I mean, if he's not doing it, then I'll do it. I just leave it up to him. I know he's got my back. Alright, Rebs, thanks so much. Thanks to everyone for watching out there as well. I will have another episode for you tomorrow. So hit subscribe. Watch along and we'll see you there.