Republicans Brace for HISTORIC Losses as Trump PANICS and BRIBES Voters

I'm Aina Garten, and each week on Happy Hour, I invite new and old friends for a drink and a fun conversation at my kitchen table in New York City. On this week's episode, I'm joined by Nathan Lane. We talk about his critically claimed run in death of a salesman, taking his dog to therapy and winning an Emmy for only murders in the building. New episodes of Happy Hour are available every Wednesday. You can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts. Cheers. Who chose your outfit today? You may not realize it, but the stylist behind your look probably isn't human. What we're seeing is that mall brands, past fashion brands, they're looking for algorithmic inputs from the internet to figure out what people like and what will sell, and then they're making products that way. This week on Explained To Me, how the algorithm transformed fast fashion. Listen Sundays wherever you get your podcasts. Our president is creating mean coins. Our congress members are raking in millions on the stock exchange, and our political candidates are betting on themselves on Calche and Polymarket. It's a bipartisan issue, and it's only getting worse. What happened to the days of when our public servants were putting a little bit more effort into, you know, serving the public rather than just serving themselves? I'm Vivian 2, you're rich BFF, and on this episode of Network and Chill, we're uncovering how our public officials are making money in questionable ways, and what exactly they're doing to get rich quick. Listen wherever you get your podcasts, or watch on youtube.com/yourrichbf. Welcome to Rage and Monter, it's I'm Scott Galway, and I'm Jessica Tarlov. So, before we get started, make sure to subscribe, stay up to date, and support our show. All right, just let's bust into it. We're less than a month from the midterm elections, and Trump has been outralling for Republican causes. He's promising another round of checks for voters, saying he'll send nearly $100 to 20 million seniors on Medicare. Okay, we'll come back about that. Calche has the odds that Dems sweep the house and the Senate at 63 percent. Wow, it's the warm turn. And polling shows Democrats leading a gubernatorial races in Republican-laid states, including Iowa, Ohio, and even Texas. Trump also seemed erratic when speaking at a rally in Ohio over the weekend, and promised a big surprise in November. Here's a toast. If the Democrats win, you will end up in a 1929 style economic depression. If the Republicans win, you will each have $5,000 in your pocket and economic success for our country like we have never seen before. The mutilization of your show, can you imagine, like, 10, 15 years ago, saying that, "Leaders in gentlemen, we will not have men playing in women's sports, will you defend it?" Tariffs have been used against us for years and years in China, in Japan, in South Korea, in Canada, data centers, benefit local communities. We want them, look, there's so much money to be made for Ohio, you can't just turn them off. They'll go to China. You know, a lot of people think it's sort of a PR attack by China. It could be, "I'm not sure. I'm not sure. I'm not such a believer in that." But it probably is a little truth to it, and I know more about inflation. I know more about everything than anybody in this room, anywhere in the world. Well, there's a woman sitting right over there that she's a housewife, but she's very good. She's got a natural instinct for business. Just get out and vote. If you do that, we're going to win, and we're going to win big. And we're going to shove it up their ass, okay? I'd love to do that. So, Jess, I'm in the East Coast, which means it's very, very, really here. You're on the west coast. That's how tired you are. So I'm on the west coast, and while typically I'm up for something and you shoved up my ass, it's just the one I want to hear at this, at ODAR, 100 hours from an obese 80-year-old man. That's not who I want to shoving anything of my ass, your thoughts, Jess. I also would like to keep my ass Trump-free, so even though $5,000 would be nice. We have alignment. Yes. We have alignment. We have a consensus. I wouldn't even do it for $5,000. $6,000, maybe. $6,000, maybe. But not $5,000. That's your number? Oh, God. $6,000. Don't let that get out there, and we're live streaming. So you're afraid. What ever happened to that guy? So give us an update. This is your sweet spot. Talk to us about the midterms and how things were looking. Well, I'm sure that our producers are happy that we've moved away from what would be the thumbnail. $6,000 ass man, Scott Galloway, up to early on the west coast. Today we're really on the west coast. Today we're on the west coast. So much good news that I'm uncomfortable. I don't know how to stop it. It's nervous. It's nerve-wracking. It's like, OK, things are going too well here. Like I prepared for the show. And three minutes ago, friend texted me. Did you see this? And I thought, oh, my God, what is it? Is the Russian play care? Oh, no, no, no. It's just gallop, knock, knock, knock. The voter ID for Q3, Democrats up 11 points. It's the largest quarterly margin recorded for Democrats since the first quarter of 2009. We all remember what was going on there. It's not. It's also this time, right before the election, where there's just so much data pouring in. And you have to be very careful about what you trust and what you don't. But everything is moving in the same direction. And that is a good thing. You have, you know, some results that make sense to me, even from grade A pollsters. Like the big poll from the weekend was the New York Times, C.N.A. poll, which is historically very, very accurate, really nailed it in 2024, was one of the first polls to pick up the signal that people who used to historically voted for Democrats were considering Donald Trump. Obviously, that came to fruition. Like they have Ashley Hinson up by one in Iowa. That makes sense to me. It's Iowa. Susan Collins up three in Maine. That also makes sense to me. Adam Hamilton tied in Kansas, which would just be a bonkers result. We haven't sent a Democrat to Washington from Kansas since 1932, so it's been a while. But they had Talleriko up 51.45 and now he's been over 50% in a few polls, which is the important threshold where, obviously, you know, you're going to win if that's the case. Sherrod Brown up in Ohio, Mary Petola up by seven in Alaska, and also had up by five, which is much more comfortable than the Fox News poll, which only had him up by one. You know, the NBC Telemundo poll also had a lot of really good results. Tons of focus on what's going on with Latino voters. Republicans have just completely shit the bed. But Donald Trump only has a 27% approval rating with Latinos right now. Historically, Hillary won Latino men by 31, Biden by 23, but Trump won them by 10 in 2024. And today Democrats are up 24 Wall Street Journal, 11% of Trump voters regret their vote. They feel betrayed and they are struggling financially. 87% say that Trump's economic policies have made the economy worse. 91% give the economy a negative job rating and 93% give Trump a negative job rating himself. I don't know where you want to dive into all of that. Oh, and I will say also the D triple C the Democrats, the House Committee are thinking that they could pick up as many as 240 seats. And now they're dumping money into another six races, all districts that Trump won from between 10 and 21 points. If this is going to be a polling error, it is going to be the polling error that should destroy the polling industry at this point. This is beyond the quiet Trump voter in 2016 and you know, people saying with 100% certainty or at least 99% that Hillary Clinton was going to win, a lot had to go right for him. That is the way the dominoes fell and some models made room for that like Nate Silver's. This is bananas. I don't know if the kids say bananas, but I say this is bananas. Do you think polls or I've read somewhere and I'm curious if you think there's merit to this. The polls have a tendency to have a bias favoring Democrats. It depends on the poll. I mean, there are some surveys that are very famous for having Republican biases, but I've seen that most of these, and certainly the A quality ones, which are the ones that I like to discuss because why waste your time talking about, you know, a so-so pollster that came up with something that you liked. You can have a top tier pollster that said something that you liked. They've been looking under the proverbial hood on what the sample looks like. And I have not seen anyone ripping these apart on that basis. And Tony Fabrizio, who is the president's pollster, his own work is finding that Democrats are winning and in states where we have no business even being competitive. And I think that's how you end up with Donald Trump doing a direct-to-camera statement. to pay you $5,000 if I win to every single American or if my team wins because the alarms are coming from within the house, right? His own advisors are saying we are in a complete crisis mode, which is why we need you in Oklahoma and Alabama. And he's in Ohio that should be, you know, be a flip for Sherrod Brown, obviously, and a flip in the governor's mansion. And you have the Vavak Ramaswamy. Did you see this? Like trying to pick up that kid where he's like, Oh, I'm going to pick up this kid now. And yes, it was not a baby, but the kid went limp. You know, how annoying is that when you're trying to pick up your kid? And then they just like, and you can't do anything. But anyway, it was like the most humiliating moment. And I guess I had a sad Saturday night, but I just watched that probably like 200 times on replay. I like that. I immediately wanted to go check that out in this another giveaway. I'm just trying to, I can't help it. I feel like we always have a tendency to go out of the politician. And it's just sort of our voters is stupid. So vote for us 5,000 dollars vote for them. We cut your kids genitals off by voters by that that works that bumper sticker works. What what do you think of this $100 or this another giveaway to seniors now? I assume some will go for it. But when they looked at and they I haven't seen people look at who believes some about the 5,000 dollars for everyone. But you know, he floated this last month. And it was something like only 13% of voters thought that it was true. And when you are running emperor has no clothes administration and only 13% can see your imaginary outfit anymore. You're in a lot of trouble. And they're flailing. And you see at this moment and I get it that it's exhausting. And I can't imagine it at 80. Keeping the schedule that he does and you know, flying all over the country and, you know, sitting on zoom calls. So do you see it was on like a g7 call and refuse to turn his camera on, which I did a lot. Yeah, but you're not the leader of the free world. You're just the leader of the pot. I don't know. We have a lot of influencers. I don't know how this rolls now. But he does. He seems like he is fed up with this. And he resents the fact that he has to be out there campaigning for people. I mean, a lot of them who don't even want him to come frankly, but that they should be doing better. And he doesn't understand why the folks down ballot are less talented than he is. And he's a great retail politician. You know, he created these amazing relationships with people, those who love him, really love him and enjoy him. The problem is the coldest softening, you know, chipping away at the seams and Democrats are, you know, running around open bags and, you know, just come, you know, come with us, come with us. And we'll be, let's say these midterms are incredible. And I think we can all agree, you know, there are individual candidates that are doing an amazing job. But in general, I don't think that people feel as if the party, the Democratic Party has a clear, compelling message as to why the future will be better under a democratic presidency, you know, heading into the years to come. And I'm curious to see what they do with that, like what that turns into, because this will be, you know, you're a second or last, a best, but, you know, maybe just last anti-Trump election, because he won't be on the ballot in 2028 despite what the folks in that Ohio arena feel. Support for the show comes from quo. Think about the last time you called a business and nobody picked up. What'd you do? You called the next one. Your customers do the exact same thing. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled Q-U-O, the business phone system built so you never miss a call. All your texts, calls, and voicemails live in one place, so anyone on your team can pick up the conversation, see the full history and respond fast. Quo was trusted by over 90,000 businesses who rely on it to stay reachable and look professional every day. Set up takes minutes, you can keep your existing number and add teammates as you grow. Quo's optional built-in AI agent handles after-hours calls, answers questions, and even books appointments. That way, you never miss a lead even when your team is offline. Quo integrates with the tools your team already uses, such as HubSpot, Zapier, Claude, and more. It helps you save time, say organized, and spend less time chasing information between systems. Money is on the line. Always say hello with Quo. Try Quo for free, plus get 20% off your first six months when you go to Quo.com/moderates, spelled Q-U-O.com/moderates. Support for the show comes from an article. If you're looking to create a space that feels cohesive and stylish all without compromising quality, then look no further than article. They have curated collections for every style, mid-century modern, coastal or scandy inspired pieces. Whatever it is that you're into, articles got the range. Their thoughtful design approach gives you the freedom to mix and match to your heart's content. An article takes great care in curating the collection, focusing solely on high-quality pieces that will stand the test of time. Every item is chosen for its craftsmanship, design, and lasting value. They also offer fast, affordable shipping across the US and Canada, with options for professional assembly if you prefer a hands-off experience. Articles customer care team is available seven days a week, offering knowledgeable support and even free interior design services to help you get your space just right. Plus with articles 30 day satisfaction guarantee, you can shop with confidence. Articles offering are listeners $50 off your first purchase of $100 or more. To claim, visit article.com/moderates and the discount will be automatically applied to check out. That's article.com/moderates for $50 off your first purchase of $100 or more. Support for the show comes from Arco Wealth. It's midnight. You're googling Roth conversions. You didn't work this hard to be doing this yourself. Maybe you already have a financial advisor, but they show up once a year, usually because you called. Meet Arco Wealth. Arco is built for real complexity, tax planning, RSUs, and options, account scattered across three different firms, a business sale, a retirement that's closer than it used to be. One advisor coordinates all of it. Arco remembers the tax deadline. Arco knows when you're equity vests. And when your life actually changes, a new job and inheritance and exit, they're already on it. Not waiting for you to notice first. You shouldn't have to manage the people managing your money. The luxury was never the wealth itself. It's not having to think about it. Good service remembers. Great service anticipates. Right now, raging moderates listeners can book a complimentary financial planning call with an ARCA advisor at arcowells.com/moderates. Every arcowealth advisor is a fiduciary, legally and ethically bound to act in your best interest. Arco Wealth is fee-only, so what you pay is transparent. For important disclosures, please visit arcowealth.com. The segment is a paid endorsement for arcowealth. I'm not a client and have an incentive to endorse arcowealth. Using Democrats are shaping up message-wise, or this is a full rejection of Trumpism election. I think our candidate quality is outstanding. When I look at the candidate Alaska, I just every time I hear this, Rob Sands, and every time I hear I get a clip of a Democrat challenging Republican incumbent, I'm like, "Right on. I don't know who's in charge of candidate quality." But I think, okay, some of the people they have running in their messaging grant, and the Republicans don't have a lot to work with right now. But people are calling it a blue wave. I think a better description of it. I wish I could credit the guy who came up with this. He's a red rib tide. That is Trump is just dragging every Republican out to sea. They have so little to work with right now. They're trying to run from him. I'm thinking about it. I'm going to, let's bring this back to me. I'm going to a retreat for the Regents at Bruin Woods in Lake Arrowhead. Once last time you were in Lake Arrowhead, Jess. Never. Never. Yeah. But I'm sure it's lovely. I've been there in 40 years when I was invited to the student government retreat as the president of the Interfaternity Council, which I'm grateful I am not right now. Oh my God. A lot of reasons. Anyways, one of the issues is whether or not to reinstate the SAT at the University of California and make a mandatory, you know, right now it's test scores are optional. And it's a longer conversation. But one of the things that's come back from the faculty from the math departments across the University of California is there's a lot of kids who can't do basic math, basic fractions. And I think that plays really importantly to Republicans. I generally think Republicans think a great strategy is to neuter US education because anybody who believes that a handout in an economy that is running two trillions deficits, this is what it is. Say they give whatever it is. So trillion dollars and $5,000 credit every house, whatever it is. Say it costs just $1 trillion. When you're running a deficit, it means the following. Okay. America, if America were a household, it makes $50,000 a year. That's its income. It's spending $70,000 on credit cards. And it's credit card debt right now is $400,000. dollars. And the terrible thing about this credit card debt is when mom and dad die, the kids get the debt. So the kids at 21, 31, 41 wake up and they have 400,000 in debt. And essentially what this offer is is the following. You get a note and we've all gotten these things in the mail saying, congratulations, we've increased your credit limit on your credit card. So despite the fact that you owe $400,000, you can now spend $410,000. That's all this is. It's saying, okay, I'm going to give you an increased, increased spending. But be clear, your kids are going to owe this money. This money isn't free. We don't. This has not, this isn't, if the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia does this, if Kuwait does this, Qatar, which is the wealthiest country in the world does this, it kind of, you can take it and say, wow, that's real money. I'm getting real money. All you're doing with this is borrowing your credit limit has been increased. But your kids are going to have to pay it back. And people seem to go for it. And I think it reverse engineers to a lack of basic math, reading and writing in K through 12. I just can, anyone who classed for this is like, okay, do you understand basic arithmetic? Do you understand the concept of debt? And one of the things I was talking to some high school, I met with much high school principals, is there an opportunity for a class called adulting? What is interest rate? What does that mean on your credit cards? You know, STDs, like basic adulting, what does it mean to buy a house? How do you know when to rent versus buy? You know, living with your parents, that hormone that's coming over you right now that makes you parents believe that they're awful people. No, they're not. Most of them are your allies. It's like a basic adulting class. And then just basically you have to, what's exciting? I'm going bare off script here. Some states in the south have just gone back to very basic education, reading writing, or you know, reading arithmetic, so to speak, are just outperforming. Like the Mississippi miracle, which is bleeding away. And it's like kind of for lack of a better term, work bullshit, Montessori, like, how are you feeling? Anyway, it just shocks me, no easier way to understand somebody who never did algebra than anyone who claps for a giveaway in a debt driven or in a country that's running at a deficit. All right, let's move on from, let's move in from, move on from kids who can't do math to the US. I don't know if you saw the story. I thought this was fascinating. The US has abruptly pulled all 12 B1 bombers out of a UK air base after commanders received urgent intelligence about an Iran back clot against the base. This comes shortly after British police arrested five men and vans near the base who were later released on bail, but remained under investigation. And a dual British Iranian national was separately arrested on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Jess, what do you make of these threats? Is this change the situation in Iran? Yeah, I mean, so pulling them out, it was the culmination of like a few weeks of threats and then very suddenly everything had to happen quickly to pull these bombers out. We don't know yet what the new piece of information was. But starting back in July, the IRGC issued a statement to the UK saying that letting the US use the bases makes London responsible for US actions. So Andy Burnham knew on the job, but probably doesn't like that. And they said any base to launch attacks on Iranian territory is a legitimate target for our forces. And I think that's really the theme of what is going on now. And I was reflecting a lot on our conversation last week when I brought up that we were at 80% the level of oil pre-war that was now getting out. Now it's even higher than that. And you were cautioning me and our listeners saying we need to actually understand the totality of what's going on here. There are a lot of other factors at play, namely that it used to cost you $50,000 to get a tanker in and out. And now it's $1.3 million. And since September 28th alone, there have been seven confirmed hits on tankers. Right now, that Saudi pipeline that the administration, you know, is so proud of that they've been touting shutdown because a tanker's reverse course because of an IRGC warning that it'd be attacked if it continued. So Iran might be on the back foot and their economy is certainly crashing, you know, in complete free fall here. But they still do have the weapons capabilities to make this really hard for us. And that's why the oil prices are hovering at 30% to 40% above where you would expect considering how much oil is getting out because of the cost of getting it there. And then there are, you know, a lot of countries that are getting their oil at discounted prices, things are moving faster for an Iraq, then for, you know, the free world as we see it. So, you know, a lot of negatives, I would say going on here too. And I think it's why the administration has actually been quieter about taking the proverbial victory lap. Because every day I open up the rundown for the five. And I think, oh my god, they're getting so much oil out. This can be the lead story, the lead story. And, you know, it's election time. So domestic politics always is, you know, featured front and center. But I keep thinking why isn't this lead story? And then you think about this aspect of it, right? That you're paying so much more to get it out that the prices aren't dropping by what they would expect or what they needed. And that is just objectively dangerous. And now our allies can't even have our planes there. Because Iran is going to be targeting them. So, what were your thoughts? Just the word, the one word that comes out of Ukraine and Iran is asymmetry. It's going to reshape warfare. And if it doesn't, we're in real trouble. And Timothy Snyder, who I had on Prof. G said something scary said, Ukraine is the innovator on warfare. But within 60 to 90 days, the Russians copy it and can reduce it at scale that we talk about the incredible fighting force of Ukraine. But unfortunately, Russia is absolutely upscaling through trial and error. It's the lethality of its armed forces. We produced 20,000 drones last year. And Ukraine produced a million. And this is reminiscent of Ukraine was able to sneak a truck into Russia. And then the truck pulls over to the side of the forest, pulls back its cover. And then several trays of drones with explosives are launched and further, further kind of deepening their strike capabilities. And that's what they think happened here. And that is strategic bombers are most expensive deterrent. It would be one cost, hundreds of millions of dollars. And this, you know, they were forced to move because potentially a band that might have, you know, gotten into Normandy somehow. And the people they pulled out of the band were Iranians. So it's asymmetric warfare as it's designed, cheap threats, force and expensive response. And it's really, I mean, the future of warfare is just going to be, we have these expensive platforms. We have B2 bombers that probably cost, you know, these are, I think these were B1s, but B2s cost one or two billion dollars. And even worse, they have two very expensive soldiers in them. And when I say expensive, I mean, Americans just don't have an appetite or a stomach for saying a guy in a uniform and or a casket and his son and dog here at the casket. They just, we are not, we have a glass jaw. One, it's the the risk tolerance for sending an expensive piece of equipment built on an expensive platform with an individual. That is becoming antiquated warfare. You, you, you want a fighting force that is so courageous and scary and willing to die. And there's nothing more willing to die than an unmanned drone. And by the way, you can just launch thousands of them. So this is basically Iran is bringing the war to its allies using asymmetric warfare. And, you know, the war used to, the war has followed us home to our allies. And the UK let us use its bases. And now it's the one with suspects on its soil. It's really one of the big pivots here that we don't realize the impact it's going to have on US power or ability to deploy power around the world. This, our bases used to be security. People were willing to give a lot to us in exchange for us putting a US base on their soil. Because what it meant was, oh, don't fuck with us. Kind of a mini article five because there's a US base here. And attacking us, we can respond with the most incredible military in the world. Now they've, these bases have gone from security to bulls eyes. I mean, I think China has one base overseas. We had 700. You're going to see ours go way, way back. country's going to release all values are like, we're all good now. Yeah, thanks so much. Pack it up, please. Don't you miss your kids? So we brought a sledgehammer to the region and Iran is at the RGC is answered by threatening the tool shed. So I just add to, sorry, the point that you're making about what we have a tolerance for. that we don't want to see, you know, a son and a dog with the flag draped casket. And I think that's absolutely true. By extension, the problem here is that this kind of conflict has not been sold to the American people at all and hasn't even been sold to the soldiers that we're asking to engage in it. I mean, the fact that you're getting these reports from what life is like for them abroad, going back to families about the, you know, sub part living conditions, what they're eating, that, you know, bathrooms are broken, that they're not getting their jays off, that they're supposed to, etc. That doesn't happen when people feel bought in to what they're doing. Or that they have folks in charge that are responsive to their questions and concerns. And I'm sure that there are going to be some people in the comments or out there in life. We'll say it's not about that, right? If, you know, someone is in position of authority and you signed up to protect and defend the United States of America, you don't ask questions. But after months being trapped on a ship, for instance, you do get to ask questions, especially when none of this is being explained to you. And you are also seeing headlines very few and far between that are positive for the US cause. You're just hearing things about people being denied benefits after their loved ones are dying that more people are being injured or passing away in the line of duty that we're hearing about. Or that to your point about the basis that they're turning into sitting ducks that they're out there with these makeshift bases where they're like putting up cubicle walls essentially. I mean, that's how we lost our first servicemen and service women in this war with Iran because they didn't put a roof on it. And so they were able to just, you know, chuck missiles in overhead instead of, you know, coming in the front door. And I think the real difference here versus past conflicts and where the administration misunderstands the mentality on the ground is that no one bothered to ask anyone what they thought of this. They didn't rally the troops. They didn't rally morale. And then you have this kind of fallout from it. And I'm just curious. I mean, Andy, Andy Burnham can be in the national security meeting about this. What's going on there? This is scary stuff that like 85 homes had to be evacuated as a result of this, even though they didn't find explosives in the vans that you mentioned. So I'm sure that they're wondering even though they haven't bought in or, you know, gone to war with us in the way, certainly, that we asked, UK, France, et cetera, like what's going to happen to them as a result of being understood to be our allies? Yeah, it's, I mean, the, the, the ugly reality is Russia with its superior military thought that they were safe. And the asymmetry of war has come to Moscow. And the same fear is a real fear that we are security forces have to deal with. And that is we went with sort of a certain level of arrogance and impunity and thinking, we, you know, literally have the power to go and attack Iran. And a symmetry is offering them potentially the, you know, to basically say, well, okay, right back at you, we're going to start attacking your Gulf allies, even though they were our allies. But it's a real possibility that they could begin attacking our allies in the EU or bring something to the homeland. And I don't know if it was Warren Buffett who said that to believe the poverty overseas in different parts of the world doesn't eventually hit your shores is just naive. And arguably, but a symmetry is going to do is, you know, extend that notion of war that it's going to be increasingly unlikely that if you take war overseas to believe that you're isolated or sequestered from it, yeah, may become naive with these very inexpensive asymmetric vehicles where it's basically motorcycles and go carts and drones that can strike you. Hi, everyone. I'm Cara Swisher. And I'm Scott Galloway. Twice a week we get together on Pivot to sort through the biggest stories in tech business and politics and we're taking the show back on the road for a live tour in November. So we'll bring hot tags, I'll bring the inside and the dick jokes and Cara will try. Keyword is tried to keep me in check. You'll get to see her hit me in person live. I'll do it. If someone has to do it, we'll cover AI, whatever chaos washing is cooked up that week and every billion are misbehaving. That's all of them. And you'll also get to participate in audience Q&A so bring your best questions. Scott will probably answer ones you didn't ask. We also have secret special guests which you'll enjoy for every city. Get tickets at pivottour.com. That's pivottour.com. We are selling out so don't wait and we look forward to seeing you. Support for the show comes from rocket money. We've all been there. You're signing up for a free trial, typing in your credit card, but telling yourself not to worry. This time you'll definitely remember to cancel in two weeks. Hate to break it to you, but you're lying to yourself. Don't worry, we've all lost a few bucks to that subscription we forgot about. But it gets even worse when you're looking at your bank statement and you start adding up how much money you wasted on a thing you don't even use. It's a particular kind of agony and it's the agony that rocket money was built to solve. You can cancel subscriptions with a few taps and then build a budget with personalized insights and regular reports so no hidden charges fall through the cracks again. Rocket money is a personal finance app that helps find and cancel unwanted subscriptions, monitors your spending, and helps lower your bills so you can grow your savings. Let rocket money help you reach your financial goals faster. Join at rocket money dot com slash moderates. That's rocket money dot com slash moderates. We're just about one month out from the midterm elections in these United States. And despite all the gerrymandering and voting restrictions, legal challenges and personnel shakeups, it looks like the Democrats are going to flip the House of Representatives. The vibes of US Democrats are incredibly strong. It's mostly Democrats trying to tell each other like don't oversell how amazing of a night we're gonna have. So on today's point of the box, how are the Democrats gonna mess this up? Nah, JK, JK, JK. The question isn't anymore like will Democrats flip the House majority? It's how big is that majority going to be? So on today's explain from box, we're going to talk about the new sheriff in town. If all of this goes as Democrats think it's going to go. A Keem's House on today explained Monday through Friday afternoons in your feeds. Let's moving on on Friday, Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jeff Merkley introduced the Ban flock act. The bill would bar federal agencies from using automated license plate readers and cut out federal grant funding to state and local governments with contracts for the technology. That same night, Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez made surprise appearances to introduce the strokes before about 40,000 fans of fleshing meadows and queens. Any Sanders in the strokes? I could hear that. I want to slip and break a hip. Just the strokes and blocking flock cameras are AOC and Bernie giving people what they want. Certainly those fans in fleshing meadows and yes, generally speaking. Banning flock cameras has big time bipartisan support. Josh Hawley even has a stop flock abuse act. This came from all of the reports that the police officers were using the technology to track women instead of to track criminals. People who were stealing kids or doing the things that you want that technology to do. We've discussed this element of the backlash against flock cameras before, which is people are just generally uneasy about AI and this is a very easy place to channel it. I'm not saying that they don't deserve to be banned or at least more restricted and of course flock is saying, you know, we want it, we want it, we want it. That's the big theme, right? All AI companies are like, please, please, please put guard rails on us. Everything would be much better. But this comes from the fact that the broad populist doesn't think that government is doing anything to slow down the pace of technological development or to protect them. And they're right on all of those fronts. So yes, they're giving the people what they want in this. It feels pretty heavy handed, which is definitely Bernie Sanders' style. But I think this is all part of the same conversation, which is if they don't give, if government doesn't put on reasonable guard rails about the development of AI, people are going to rise up against it and they don't want to live like this. They don't want to feel like their every move is being tracked and that they're going to lose their jobs and wake up tomorrow in a data center is going to be next to their house. Yeah, I'm, I think I'm just a light up or comments. I'm a fan of flock. If you look at and what people don't want to connect the dots and have an honest conversation about, if you talk to Dan Laurie, Mayor Laurie, crime is at 20 years lows. Los Angeles crime is plummeting. New York has the lowest crime rate on record right now. And let me ask you, why do you think that is? Why do you think nationwide crime is plummeting. It's not that we need fewer flocks. What we need is better leadership that ensures that judges have to I mean, since Yari bombings of the 80s and 90s in the UK and 9/11, folks, you're on candid camera, you're on camera, and it's really effective. I think what's needed is a really high bar for when that data can be used, and you're referring to a guy who had access to the flock, started tracking his girlfriend, someone was arrested incorrectly, I'm absolutely in favor of flock. The key is what can it be used for and not, and I think there should be laws, it can't be used for potential misdemeanors. If you might be, if Jessica Tarlau's movements might be providing information to convict somebody, I don't think that should be submissible evidence. I think someone not directly involved in the crime or the perpetrator, that data, freedom, there is an absolute tension between freedoms and crime. It's just really low in Russia because there are no search and seizure laws. They can come in and toss your home without a warrant. No judge has to approve it. It's just a call from whoever's saying, we think they're in their house, and they'll take you, you know, they can incarcerate you, and I don't think there's even laws in how long they're going to hold you. So to ignore technology, I just got to think that when you see, if you actually got rid of these things, to believe that it's great policymaking that has resulted in historic drops in crime, okay. Once you get, you know, once your daughter is assaulted, once, you know, your home is ransacked and everything you own is stolen, you know, once you are hit over the head and have your home, you know, and have your phone and purse stolen, you just might have a different view. Now again, it's not about the technology, it's about ensuring we have the right lawmakers to ensure that we err on the side of when you can use, the Patriot Act took technology too far. It wasn't a technology's fault. It was that we decided that everyone potentially qualified as a terrorist and we could start violating American citizens' rights. So I like these things. The reduction in crime has been a marvel. You know, people notice an increase in crime 10 times more than they notice a decrease in crime. And to not credit these technologies with a massive decrease in crime, it's just not to be honest about what's going on here. So the question again, there is a sweet spot. Let's use these technologies. If someone kidnaps a kid, if it's clear these eight people are going to places where they look like they're maybe making a bio weapon and then getting in vans and going to flight training school, okay, let's use flock like crazy. There's a murder. We're going to use flock like crazy. But smaller crimes, misdemeanors, whatever it might be, a really high bar that frustrates the shit out of prosecutors that they can't use this data for this type of crime. And anything that results in the tracking of private citizens like this guy was doing tracking his girlfriend is a crime in itself and you might end up in jail. But I'm I think to keep to keep technology in a bottle is just okay, when a modern society is supposed to leverage technology with thoughtful laws, thoughtful protections of people's rights and we can I think we can have our cake and eat it to here. And I think as usual, when the far left and the far right agree on anything, whether it's isolationism, anti vaccination, you know, I think the far left and the far right are both racist. It's a really bad idea, just as these, I think, using a blunt instrument in the band flock as populist bullshit that will again result in an increase in crime rates at which we'll start blaming politicians or democratic or Republican policies. Your reaction to that. Josh Hawley and Scott Galloway emoji coming together since his is only the stop flock abuse act. So not get rid of the technology. I generally agree with you just throwing into the mix that flock also has big privacy issues and hacking vulnerabilities and an Oklahoma court actually upheld that it probably violated the fourth amendment, a district court. But yeah, I do, I do think it is part of Bernie Sanders's style to come in as take as big of a swing as possible, hoping that we get somewhere normal in its wake. And so perhaps we will get that on the on the flock front more importantly. Let's talk about Bernie in the strokes, AOC and Bernie are literally the only it's so interesting that an 87 year old and I know what she is 37 now by the only Democrats who can reach a 25 year old on their own turf. The reality is the party's bench, the party's bench has a risk problem and democratic leaders couldn't introduce a band without a focus group, they'd be like trying to figure out what to do there. Just feel the music. There you go. I said yeah. Jack Smith was out concert going. That's the end. I think the answer is MDMA, but that's just me. I don't think that's going to be the official party platform solution. Look, he's the king maker, not the king, he'll be 87 and he's he's not the warm aback for AOC. He's now Harry Styles and she's Taylor Swift, right or I don't know who the warm aback would be. I'm trying to say who I think it's been a warm. No, I wouldn't say Harry at the garden. I don't think he's a warm aback. He's not a warm aback. I mean it's different though, very different fandoms. Bernie's Mick Jagger at this point, nobody thinks he's the future of rock, but everyone still buys a ticket. All right, a new scotus term begins today. There's a lot to watch, including cases around truth of citizenship requirements for voter registration, the Trump administration's policy of detaining noncitizens arrested inside the US without a bond hearing. But maybe most importantly, the possibility of get this justice, Alito retiring, let's listen to a clip. You decided not to retire this year, despite I think some pretty intense pressure from Republicans who thought well, Republicans are in control of the Senate, so it would be more easy, easier to confirm your replacement. What makes you decide to stay on? I thought about it and I will consider it. I will continue. Well, it's something I think that somebody at my age has to think about every term, but I thought that I could still make a valuable contribution. So you'll be kind of reconsidering this probably every year, rethinking it? Yeah, I think I have to. Well, I mean, I don't know if he leaves, but I really, I think the ultimate replacement would be no one other than Kentucky's senior Senator Mitch McConnell. I would like to see Mitch McConnell on that seat. This is scary for Democrats, your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, he was obviously thinking about it. Remember the NPR leak that was up for a few minutes and then he wasn't active, there was no confirmation of it and it came back down. And that doesn't happen unless there are rumbling something about this. He's a toddler compared to all these, well, the end of the dead, octogenarians. So the oldest justice is Clarence Thomas. He's 78 who apparently has indicated that he intends to serve for decades more decades more. Like what is going on here? And if he makes it through the spring of 2028, he will be the longest serving justice in the pre court history. That's just as Thomas Alito is obviously correct at 76 biology is undefeated as you like to say, comes for everybody. What will be interesting to see is if Democrats do have a very good night on November 3rd or whenever the final votes are counted, I really hope this happens quickly. What he does, because if they are going to lose control of the Senate, do they try to ram through the confirmation of another justice before the new crop of senators are seated? And I could see them trying to do something that shitty. I mean, you made a Mitch McConnell joke, but that might be his dying wish and I knock on what that he lives. I don't really want him to die. I want him to leave the Senate because obviously the people of Kentucky are not being represented at this particular moment, but I think that's the question. But Alito has a lot of power on this court right now. He's close with Justice Roberts. He gets to write a lot of very big decisions, him being the majority opinion writer on the Dobbs decision, for instance, that's the culmination of decades of work coming to fruition. So he has on the one hand, he saw what happened with RBG and also what his legacy looks like for a lot of people who love her and respect her, but wish that when she met with Obama and he, you know, soft option, like, you know, maybe you should go before it's too late for us to be in control and then chose not to that didn't end up that well. Not only for the party should we think of it necessarily through the partisan lens, but for the decisions that you cared about because obviously, I mean, this court has no problem ripping up long-held precedent. The three most accretive things in modern history would be one, as I, guys, were men become much more involved in their son's lives to a mandatory retirement at 72 of all global leaders. We lose Putin and Yahoo and Trump and three. elimination of citizens united. All of these things are free. The most important similar thing is we can do to make the world a better place or free. This is fucking insane. These people need to go home. The first thing that goes and cognitive decline is your ability to recognize your cognitive decline. And just at some point we got to get some sanity here. And anyway, I hope but Alito should stay. He should stay. He should absolutely stay. As a matter of fact, back to me, Jess, I remember being in business school in a big controversy with the whole Anita Hill thing and speaking of which, Scott Galloway had a long conversation with Anita Hill at the 175th birthday party of the New York Times. I mean, you do love your New York Times crowd from your stint on the board. It was such a great party. I think I've gone very off script here. I think I've gone very off script. Okay. Let's talk about it and illness out of right now. All right. Thank you for that. Bring him back. Bring speaking of speaking of people who should retire in cognitive decline. A mysterious illness at a Russian lab that studies some of the world's deadliest diseases has sparked a health scare. The 28 year old lab technician has died from pneumonia of unknown origin. Dozens of people are reportedly in isolation. And Russia's top infectious disease official has rushed to the region. Oh, fuck, really? Oh, God, officials insist there's no link to her work, but they're clearly taking this seriously. Oh, God, Jess, what do we know here? Not enough. Not enough. No, I don't like the state department. Many details have not been confirmed. Well, like duh. Yeah, we get that. And we know that you don't want to freak everyone out. But the actions that the Russians are taking are freaking everyone out. So this woman, 28 years old, she became infected after a test to broke while she was collecting samples. There are five hospitals that are being quarantined. And university canceling classes in the region, accusations from healthcare workers that the government is attempting a media cover up. The Russians never attempt a media cover up, though. So everyone be calm. Everything's going to be great. 200 of her contacts are reportedly under isolation or medical observation. That is the same thing to do. That's a good thing. Obviously, to do there was a travel advice, advising people not to travel to the area that advisory was published then deleted. Apparently, healthcare workers are claiming that doctors are talking, you know, plague internally. But the internet is full of coms to the babonic plague that this is a cousin, which obviously doesn't make me feel good. Our the former White House COVID response director spoke with NBC and said it's very hard for pneumonia, play eggs to spread from person to person. We may see a few more people get infected, but the chances that this becomes a larger outbreak, let alone a global pandemic is exceedingly low. So that is more than we have gotten out of the state department, or this CDC, I can and please let RFK Jr. do a press conference on this. But the big question is, you know, is it was this lab developing weapons at all, right? Is this a redox of what was going on in the Wuhan lab, which it took us obviously several years to get to, you know, the highest likelihood that that's what was going on here versus the penguin in the wet market. And we don't have an answer to that question. Do you think this is media hype or real reason to be concerned? Well, that's it. We don't we said it. You summarized perfectly, we don't know. And that is the diseases and the scariest thing here is the information vacuum. Russia, Russia's state and federal and local officials don't agree on what killed her. That's kind of the playbook or a page out of the Chernobyl playbook. And that is the first casualty of a lab accident. And an autocracy is the truth. pneumonic plague is treatable with antibiotics of cotterly. So this is so if it's what it is, it's likely to become a pandemic. But here's the scary part. You don't quarantine 200 people for unknown pneumonia. And so labs, what do we know after COVID lab safety is a global public good in the countries with the least transparency runs some of the most dangerous labs? So, you know, look, a lab leak in Russia is like a gas leak in an apartment building where the super insists everything is fine while ordering everyone out, right? Don't panic, but please leave right now. Anyway, so it's I this should scary, right? This is the I've said for a while that the CDC should have a second headquarters in Palo Alto and be embedded in these frontier AI labs with access to everything. But yeah, this stuff is the scariest thing is not pneumonic plague. We can handle that. The scariest thing is Russia has a habit of not telling the truth and trying to minimize things to cover up their components. So the reality is we know someone died, we know their panic, we don't know why. And that we don't know why is the real reason for panic, not pneumonic plague, any closing thoughts on that? Sure, you know, the polling's really good. The polling is good. The Tolerico, we might all die, but anyways, okay. Anyway, I was just trying massive heat wave in L.A. Massive. I couldn't leave my hotel room yesterday, Josh. Couldn't even go to the pool. Your life is so hurt. Couldn't have a cop salad or an Arnold Palmer on the roof. All the joyous things in my life couldn't do. So warm here. So warm. 90. Oh, no, it hit 100 yesterday. Yeah. And it's so still. It's like, I've never seen so many cool people. I went to dinner the shot to more mom on that there's a dinner place outside. I've never seen so many ridiculously cool people just like wilting under the heat. I don't like to sweat and publicly that. Yeah, not so pretty. All right, let's leave it there. Let's leave it there, Jess. Have a good rest of the day. [BLANK_AUDIO]