Red, White and Who? The Swing Voters in South Texas

[MUSIC] Our colleague Elizabeth Fendell and producer Matt Quang recently went to see a house in South Texas. A house that was supposed to be finished by now, but it had no front door. And there was plywood piled up around the property. >> Hey Benny, how you doing? >> I was working. >> Okay, good, good. >> I'm sorry y'all weren't hitched behind the port of Hollywood. >> I'm worried. >> See you, how are you? >> Yes, nice to see you. >> Nice to see you, new person. Just be careful with the flooring. >> And take me back to this meeting that you had with Benny Melendez. Like, who is he, what did you just see when you arrived to meet him? >> Yeah, Benny Melendez is a home builder in the Rio Grande Valley. We went and met up with him at a house that is under construction in San Juan, pulled up there and saw this partially finished home and a very quiet atmosphere. >> Okay, we're standing in the driveway, but it's all dirt. But it's all dirt, but if you're left and there was something on this property that he wanted to show you. >> Yeah, he wanted to show us the fence that is around the house. >> You see it? >> Sure. >> Okay, with the do not enter sign here. I'm not afraid that someone's going to steal my materials. No, I'm afraid that ice agents are going to steal my workers. >> And it's an attempt to keep ice agents from coming and grabbing their workers, because they set up a perimeter of essentially private property. For an active construction site, not a lot is happening, because so many of Benny's workers are gone. Benny blames the Trump administration's immigration enforcement for the construction delays, which might be surprising, given who he voted for two years ago. >> Who'd you vote for in 2024? >> On 2024 for Trump, before Trump for Biden. >> Okay. >> What made you change your vote to Trump in 2024? >> Well, I didn't like what Biden and the Democrats were doing, regarding the inflation and the border. We had a border crisis here. He represents a really particular type of voter that both Republicans and Democrats are trying to court more than probably any other voter. The Hispanic voters, especially in South Texas, who had previously been democratic, who swung to Trump in recent cycles. >> Do you regret your vote for Trump? >> Well, yes, I regret my vote for Trump the same way I regret it my vote for Biden. Why should we be paying attention to voters like Benny? >> The South Texas Hispanic voters matter for a few reasons. One is that they are really seen as the constituency that is going to be perhaps the biggest deciding factor in races this year across the state that are looking extremely close. I think South Texas shows who Republicans believed their new voters were a large portion of them and tests whether they'll stick around. >> From the journal, this is Red White and Who. Our series about the road to the midterms. I'm Ryan Knutzen. It's Wednesday, October 21st. Coming up on the show, the swing voters in South Texas. The Rio Grande Valley in Texas happens to be one of our colleague Elizabeth Fendell's favorite places on Earth. >> Why don't you just now introduce us to this area of Texas? And why is it an important place to watch for the midterms? >> Oh, man. >> You have managed to catch the thing I am most passionate about, which is the valley and its politics. >> It is a vibrant area. It is a fast-growing area. It is a border region where people are crossing back and forth regularly to Mexico. The region is interesting as well because the Rio Grande Valley is 92% Hispanic. For decades, this was a reliably blue patch of Texas. Until election night, 2024. >> Trump won all of South Texas border counties last night during the election. It's a huge shift here in the valley. >> It's a big night for Republicans in the election. Their success nationally and here in Texas, fuelled in part by Latino voters. >> Trump's margin of victory in Texas proved to be the largest in a presidential race in 20 years. >> Why was that a big deal? >> It was really shocking because it had never swung Republican in the current era. But seeing all of the Rio Grande Valley counties go red in 2024 was striking because they had been democratic for generations. And these Hispanic voters had long been a constituency that Democrats took for granted. But they had also been Democrats that were a different type of Democrat than a lot of other places. You know, Democrats that were more socially conservative. >> Another reason South Texas is interesting. It was one of the places where Republicans drew new boundaries around congressional districts in ways they thought would help them pick up more seats. Republicans built a redistricting effort specifically around the gains that they had made with Hispanic voters. And if those gains don't hold, that's an effort that could really backfire. >> Interesting. So Republicans when they redistricted Texas, they thought these were voters that they had. So let's redistrict them in such a way that we will be able to keep them and we will use that to hold on to more political power. But if those voters don't continue to vote for them, then that that strategy just may not work out. >> Yeah, that is absolutely correct. >> And how generally speaking are those voters feeling now after two years of the Trump administration? >> I think by and large, most of those voters tell me that they are not feeling like their lives are better, that their economic hardships are just as bad, it's not worse than they were before. And that while they may appreciate that the border is quieter than it has been in a long time as far as illegal crossings, that the ICE enforcement actions have really been over the top and have really affected local economies and growth. >> The Trump administration has defended its immigration enforcement as necessary for national security and good for the economy. Trump's approval rating has fallen to around 36 percent nationally. With low approval ratings, sitting presidents have historically kept their distance from tight races. But this time? >> So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. Just one more time. >> I think President Trump really believes that he is the greatest strength for the Republican Party. And he probably saw that the people in South Texas who voted for him previously often did not vote Republican farther down the ballot. A lot of them voted for Trump and then voted for Democrats farther down the ballot. So he sees himself as the party's greatest strength. >> How do the candidates see him? >> Well, that is a very complicated question that some of the candidates do not want to answer. But we did some canvassing and tried to find out. We met up with a guy named Jorge Martinez, who was canvassing on behalf of a group called Libre, which works to get Latino voters engaged in conservative politics. And we met him in Harlingen, Texas. And we just were interested to hear what pitch she was going to be making to voters. And what voters were going to say back to him. Jorge was walking door to door trying to persuade voters in the South Texas town to support Eric Flores. He's a Republican running for Congress against Democratic Congressman Vincent de Gonzalez. There was plenty Jorge wanted to tell people about Flores, about his military service, about his position on lowering property taxes. His history of fighting drug traffickers in court. But there was one thing his pitch never mentioned. - You know, we did not hear Jorge bringing up Trump. - So what happened when people started opening their doors? - Well, voters really wanted to talk about the national environment and that means talking about Trump. - Even though Jorge was like, we don't need to talk about Trump. And they're like, but I wanna talk about Trump. - I mean, I think Jorge understands the water that he's swimming in. It's just not necessarily his role to defend or oppose the administration. - Behind one door that looks like a shrine to Texas A&M football was Mike Garza and his dog. - Okay, she's gonna charge you just, oh, we're gonna, okay. (laughing) - Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. All right now. Mike voted for Trump in 2024, but he isn't very happy with how things have gone. - I'm worried, no doubt I'm worried. - You think he's helping or hurting the political climate right now in South Texas? - He's hurting the climate, you know, hurting the climate. - Still, he'll vote for Republicans like Flores. He likes the Flores family, though he's far from being a party loyalist. - What the Democrats have done, you know, I jump party lines no doubt. I'm not 100% Republican, not 100% Democrat. I do what I feel is best for my family and for my boys that are growing now. - A few houses later, Michelle Hernandez, a 26-year-old realtor, came to the door. For her, Trump is a key selling point. - So they were actually supporting our Flores, he is a Republican running for Congress. - I see, he's in Doris Bay, Trump. - Yeah, yeah. - And what does that mean to you? - Honestly, I just think that it just gives validation of what his work is true to. And even though we might not always agree 100%, there is more agreement. I mean, have you always been Republican? - No. - When did you start voting Republican? - Actually, when I started learning about more about my relationship with Christ, yeah. How are you feeling about Trump this term? - I personally think like he's doing a great job like with our troops with protecting us, like American citizens, like that should be his priority. And a lot of people are against like what he's doing and they say that it's inhumane and even with all the ice stuff that's happening and it's, there's rules, there's always rules in place. But I think he's doing a great job so far. - At the end of our interview, after she had been discussing her support for Republicans, Matt asked her if she had been personally affected at all by Trump's immigration push. - Yeah, my, my aunt was picked up by ice and she was deported and she's living in Mexico now, yeah. And I mean, it's not, it's something that just comes with the consequences. - You might have complicated feelings though because it's your aunt, right? - Yes, but everybody had their choice. When my mom came, it's at the same time that my aunt came and you have a choice. My mom was able to become an American citizen and the American citizenship. And it's like a lot of families are being broken apart and it's really heartbreaking. Like we took it really hard, but at the end of the day, like there's not much we can do, really to help somebody who doesn't, who didn't get the help when there was the help. - A short drive away in Bill Ashcraft's house, Trump's endorsement had the opposite effect. - For his might have been okay if he didn't have a Trump endorsement. Anybody that Trump endorses, I'm out. - You're crossing your fingers together. He kind of held his fingers out in an X to make it clear that Trump endorsement was a deal breaker for him. - For Jorge, the conservative canvasser, it's a little awkward. Trump's endorsement can be an asset for his candidate at one door, but a liability at the next. - Democrats are betting there are more people here who have soured on Trump than who still support him. As Elizabeth and that were driving around, one political billboard kept popping up. A billboard featuring Eric Flores with Donald Trump. - They say Trump endorsed in big letters at the top. Trump endorsed Eric Flores and then says like, you know, support ICE. And then if you look closer, you see that they are paid for by Democrats. - Interesting, so Democrats are buying billboards that highlight Trump's endorsement of Flores while people who are canvassing for Flores are trying not to mention Trump at all. So what do you make of that? - It really shows what Democrats are thinking this cycle, which is that or Trump endorsement is gonna hurt Republican candidates. - Last week, a lawyer for Flores demanded that a digital version of the billboard be removed, alleging it causes voter confusion. Did you show this at the Jorge? - I did show the at the Jorge. - Do you think it helps them or helps you guys? - Honestly, I don't know about that. I'm here to just focus on the economy and really to just get Eric elected. So I can't speak for the Democrats. - For his part, Flores seems to be putting less emphasis on Trump himself. This campaign website has removed the words, support President Trump's agenda from the homepage. With this question of whether Republicans can hold Trump's voters, goes well beyond the House races, because these South Texas voters are also picking a new senator and it's the first time in a while the Democrats think they have a real shot. Part of the Democrat's strategy, rests on winning back voters who switched to Trump. That's after the break. (gentle music) (gentle music) - There's another election in Texas where Democrats are counting on picking up the voters Trump won over in 2024. - The biggest race this year, that everyone in Texas is watching and everyone in the country is watching, is of course, the Senate race between Texas's attorney general Ken Paxton and stay rep, James Tolerico. - If Tolerico wins, he would be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988. And according to the most polls, he has a slight lead. To pull off a win, Tolerico needs to persuade some of those Trump voters to switch sides again. On the stump, his messaging seems designed to appeal to the conservative reigning religious South Texas voters, Elizabeth and Matt spoke to. - I got elected to the State House by flipping a Trump district. A district that no one thought was winnable. And I'm now in my fourth term. - And he openly talks about how he will buck his own party. - I will always do what's best for Texas, even if that means standing up to my own party. We talked earlier about oil and gas. If the Democratic party is going after the good paying oil and gas jobs here in Texas, I'm gonna stand up against them. I'm gonna call out Democrats like Joe Biden who failed us on our southern border because we need border security here in Texas. - Tolerico has given the Democrats kind of their best hope in a generation of them capturing the white whale of winning a Texas statewide seat and he's a very charismatic, young sort of Bible-oriented messenger who has been able to bring people together in a really interesting way. - My faith teaches me to love my neighbor as myself. Not just my neighbor who looks like me. Not just my neighbor who prays like me. Not just my neighbor who votes like me. - I am called to move more. - He's already one over people like Benny Melendez, the home builder we met earlier. - Who's for who's for the Senate? - Well, for the Senate is James Tolerico, great guy, James Tolerico. Well now, I don't know once he comes into power. That's the same thing I said about Trump and look at it as now. So hopefully I'm not wrong about him. - He's been down here a couple of times. You see him or what are you hearing about him from people in the Valley? - I mean, we like the guy. I mean, he's a Christian guy. He's been here like you said pretty often. I've seen him like I'd times. - Wow, in person? - Yeah, in person. Yeah, yeah, so I've got him to know the guy. He's a great guy. I'm gonna vote for him. I'm gonna trust him. And but you know who I haven't seen around? Paxton. - Ken Paxton is the Republican candidate for Senate. Paxton won a bruising primary battle unseating longtime Republican Senator John Cornyn. - And Ken Paxton is a politician who has been very powerful in Texas for a very long time and has extremely dedicated fans. - Ken Paxton. - He's Texas Attorney General and a longtime Trump ally. - If we lose Texas, we lose the common sense revolution. If we lose the common sense revolution, we lose a majority. America. But together, we can send President Trump reinforcements in the Senate and change Washington. Pakistan is also faced serious controversies, including impeachment by the Texas House while he was AG. He was eventually acquitted by the Texas Senate. Pakistan aggressively sought Trump's endorsement in the primary, but in the statewide election, Trump's support is proving to be more complicated. So he is pretty inextricably linked from Trump and his supporters are Trump supporters, but even Pakistan has kind of acknowledged recently on tapes that have been leaked to media organizations that Trump's policies and Trump's appearances in Texas have not helped his campaign. Still, a Democrat winning in Texas is not easy. Many people Elizabeth and Matt met in South Texas were deeply religious and socially conservative. Talleriko's more liberal positions on abortion and LGBTQ issues can be challenging for them. Like Liz Emaya, who spoke to our producer, Matt. She was a 2024 Trump supporter, but she still undecided about the Senate. Was there like any single, biggest reason you decided to vote for Trump? It was my face and thinking that he would do a better job on the economic. But Liz hasn't liked what she's seen in the new Trump presidency, especially when it comes to the economy and immigration enforcement. That doesn't mean she's embracing Democrats whole heartedly. She's planning to split her ticket. She'll support the Republican Greg Abbott for governor and a Democrat Bobby Polito in her house race. The Senate race is a harder call. What about in the Senate race, James Talleriko versus Ken Pasthen? You're closing your eyes and putting your head down into your chest. You look like you're in pain. I will, honestly, on those two, I'm still debating. I'm still debating since I do not know a lot about both of them. So I will keep my vote still until I'm there and find out if I'm going to vote for them or just not give a vote to none of them. And Talleriko being a definitely a man of faith, does that matter to you? Yes, but there's other things that I was actually looking up to him today. I was reading a little bit more about him, but we'll see. I still have time to see if I vote for him or for Texan. Elizabeth, what does this all tell us about whether Trump's coalition will hold? I mean, it's an indication that Republicans should be a little nervous about whether or not this coalition is going to hold, but it also shows Democrats that they can't take these people for granted or assume that they're going to swing back either. Benny is a good example of exactly why Latino voters are such a talked about constituency right now, and that is because they're making decisions based on what they think is going to be best for them in the future and not based on their historical political allegiances. And that's the way we Hispanics are, okay? I don't consider myself to be red or blue, okay? I'm purple. And I'm not bargaining, I'm just purple. Because I'm not in love with no party. We're not loyal to them, okay? We're loyal to America. That's all for today, Wednesday, October 21st. Next week on Red Wedding Who, it's the final episode before the election. This time, we'll look at the fight over the Democratic Party. But I am concerned. I am very concerned that we went a little too far to the left this time around. Red Wedding Who is part of the journal, which is a co-production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. This episode was produced by Matt Kwong and edited by Katherine Brewer, audio engineering by Peter Leonard. I'm Ryan Knudsen. Our theme music is by so wily and remixed by Peter Leonard, fact checking by Nicole Pasolka. Special thanks to Chris Matthews, Sarah Platt, Pierce Singer, and a whole journal team. The journal will be back with a regular episode this afternoon, and the next installment of Red Wedding Who will be out next Wednesday. See you then.