Red, White and Who? A Progressive Gamble in Michigan

(Music) At a breakfast restaurant in Grand Rapids, Michigan, the Democratic candidate for Senate held a meet and greet. "As you all know, my name is Abdul Al-Sid, and I'm running for US Senate because my name is perfect for you as balls." Elsaid has gotten a lot of attention, not just because Michigan is a highly contested race that could determine control of the whole Senate, and not just because he'd be the nation's first Muslim senator, but because he's a progressive, running in a swing state. "You deserve the guarantee that we're there in these United States of America. You deserve to breathe clean air and drink clean water in these United States of America." He's running as a progressive, touting policies like Medicare for all and taxing billionaires. Ideas championed by people like Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Our colleague John McCormick is a national political reporter. He's been covering Elsaid's campaign. It's an interesting race because Elsaid is an interesting character. You can make the case that of any Democrat on the ballot in the midterm election, he's going to be the most consequential in terms of how the party moves forward in the future. Michigan is a absolute battleground state in 2024. It had the second narrowest margin in the presidential election. If he's able to win, progressives like Bernie Sanders and AOC will be able to say, "See, we can win purple competitive states with a very, very progressive candidate." Therefore, the party needs to embrace more progressivism. If he loses, then the more pragmatic establishment people in the Democratic Party are going to say, "See, you blew it." From the journal, "This is Red White and Who," our series about the road to the midterms. I'm Ryan Knutson. It's Wednesday, October 20th. Coming up on the show, the gamble on a progressive in Michigan. Last 2024, Republicans have controlled the presidency, the House, and the Senate. It's left Democrats to do a lot of soul-searching, and there's some in the party who think the way to win is to move more left. The modern movement is often traced back to Bernie Sanders. What this campaign is about is whether or not we have the courage to take on these oligocks. These become a king-maker for progressive politicians, paving the way for people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Zora and Mamdani. Our movement here in New York City is a movement that is part of something national, which is a fight for working people. Progressives are no longer a fringe part of the Democratic Party. We've had some major wins, mostly in solidly blue areas, and calls for Democrats to embrace the left have been growing louder. Bernie Sanders and sort of that wing of the party has said we need to move further left. It would actually be helpful for us in terms of winning more elections. Many Americans are becoming more drawn to progressive ideas. In a Wall Street Journal poll last month, 59% of respondents said they supported Medicare for all. And 66% said they supported raising federal taxes on people who make more than $1 million a year. At the same time, though, only 24% of people who responded said they had a favorable view of the Democratic Socialists of America, the organization that's become shorthand for many of these progressive candidates, even when they're not members. Elsie Ed is not a member of the DSA, even though we share as many of the same views. As John says, Michigan may be the biggest test yet for these progressive ideas. Can a state that went for Trump two years ago vote for Elsie Ed for Senator? Democratic voters here decided to take that risk because there was a solid moderate on the ballot in the primary. Haley Stevens was an incumbent member of Congress who was sort of representing the establishment one was backed by sort of the party apparatus in Washington, D.C., she was sort of the safe bet, but the party decided to go with a, you know, a pretty far left progressive. Elsie Ed is a Michigan native. He grew up in the suburbs of Detroit, the son of two Egyptian immigrants, both very well educated, both very smart, and he's a very smart guy. And he was sort of the all American childhood and suburban Detroit, played three high school sports. He went to college at the University of Michigan, got his doctorate at Oxford and went to medical school at Columbia. He went on to lead local health departments in Michigan. He is a compelling character, sort of, for the Medicare for all movement, which again is very much at the center of his campaign. Look, my background is in getting people healthcare. I rebuilt Detroit's health department, lead Wayne County's Department of Health, Human and Veteran Services. We led a health insurance program that provided small businesses high quality health insurance. We expanded access to prescription. You've interviewed him and been to some of his campaign events. What does he like as a candidate? So he is a talented candidate. He is a, he is a good speaker. He's good at telling stories. He can be combative if somebody challenges him, whether it's a reporter or whether it's a voter. Like in last week's debate with Mike Rogers, his Republican opponent, literally voted to defund border security. That is your record. You don't want to own it. You don't want to talk about it. Because you are embarrassed of it. Like many Democrats, Elsaid had points to Trump and Republicans for today's economic issues, like high gas prices. Right now, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, it all really goes back to this war in Iran. We need a war powers resolution rather than a senator who is going to stand hip to hip with Donald Trump on this war that made no sense when it started and certainly makes no sense. Now, Elsaid supports other policies like taxing billionaires and abolishing ICE, though he says he believes in border security. His message? Life is more expensive and difficult for everyday people, and ultimately, the current system is broken. Elsaid is one over a lot of fans, some of whom John met at campaign events. Have you decided who you're going to vote for in the Senate, Rose? Who are you going to vote for? I just think that we need a big change in Washington, and I think he will be good for us. If you don't like what's in place now, I think you just go whatever direction you need to go to shake it up, and that's what we need to do. I wouldn't be being completely honest if I didn't say that I shared a little bit of that concern about is this too progressive for Michigan, but I really believe that if you want to see change, you have to be willing to step outside of the box. So, while a lot of people you met with at his campaign events support him, how do you think it's playing out across a swing state like Michigan? Do you think the broader population there is ready for a more progressive candidate? I think it's a pretty tough sell, because ultimately, most really close elections are decided by independent voters, and obviously, there's a lot of, you know, a lot of Republicans in the Midwest as well. So candidates who tend to be more in the middle in terms of their policy positions do tend to do better in the Midwest. After leaving an L-Scied campaign event, John and our producer Pierce Singer set out to talk to more Michigan voters. All right, John, where are we and what are we doing? That is a very good question. I think we are close to Ithaca, Michigan, in sort of North Central, Michigan, and we're going to try to talk some voters at a gas station here. Gas is selling today for $4.79 for regular, and they wanted to see how L-Scied's message is resonating outside of Michigan cities. Excuse me. Where is the Wall Street Journal? We're trying to talk to some Michigan voters. They ran into Caleb Knopf. He was filling up his SUV before going deer hunting. He said that he voted for Trump three times. I am not going to be voting. Why? I'm not going to vote for a DSA candidate, and I'm also. But he's also not going to vote for Rogers. Yeah, anybody that's being backed by Trump's group right now, I'm not into, really. He's frustrated with the war in Iran, and with the price of gas. You know how much this tank's going to cost you? This tank's going to cost me. I put 75 in and I had a quarter tank yesterday before I had it down here. I filled up, and it was $105. on heat. So 105 bucks to fill up. Not great. So are you gonna vote at all or just not in that one? I'm not gonna vote in that one and we'll see. We'll see what I'm gonna vote for but definitely not for either of those guys. Okay. You feel like Elsa Heat is just too far left? Um, I feel like yeah, he's a little too far left. The people that he is like hanging out with, like Hassan Piker and stuff like that. I know a lot of that's not fully true but he has hung out with him and I don't know, just not into it. The obstacles for Elsa aren't just among Republicans. It's also within his own party. I mean, I think in every urban community there's tension between the Arab-American population and the Black American population. That's next. It's around 2 p.m. on a Thursday. Abdul El-Saya supporters are at the Meanwhile bar in Grand Rapids. It's a neighborhood pub that's dimly lit. A giant shark hung over the bar. You know, a little bit early for drinking but there were a bunch of Democrats assembled and having a few beers before five. It's five o'clock somewhere, John. It was five o'clock somewhere. He took two questions from the crowd. One was about data centers and the other was about race. So here's the story. The Democratic Party has had issues with Black George. That's why we here today to push the Black folk for you. What makes you different and how do we know that we trust what you say because historically the Democrats don't like it. But peer. What's your name? Jamie. Jamie, I appreciate the question. All the time, some politicians will come into a neighborhood. It's the first time you ever saw them. That's your year vote. That's the last time you ever saw them. Stepping back, my story in America doesn't happen without the advocacy and the organizing of Black folks in church teams across the world. Else Ed went on to talk about immigration, the literature of civil rights leaders and his work in black communities as a health director. We're with the Wall Street Journal and we're doing a podcast. Would it be okay if we record some sound with you? The man who asked Else Ed that question at the bar was JD Chapman Jr. John and our producer Pierce caught up with them. What's your number one issue going into this election? Of course living. Look at that man. I put 150 in my $150 in my truck today and it didn't fill up. Like that's a problem. That's a problem. Else Ed is trying to win voters like JD. People who are concerned about the economy and gas prices and yet have you decided who you're going to vote for in this center race? Not yet. No I'm not considering Rodgers. I'm considering not voting in that race at all. He hasn't won your vote yet. No, he hasn't won my vote yet. For one, he hasn't answered my questions in there. He scattered around it. Like good politicians do. But I don't think oftentimes I don't think he gives direct answers. I don't know if there was anything that he could say. That would sway my vote. I will say this. I will continue to do research and look at some of the things in depth that he claims he's done on the ground and see how that aligns with the beliefs that I have. There have been sort of tensions between the black community and the Muslim community in the Detroit metropolitan area for a long time. And so Else Ed is confronting that as a Muslim. There just are some black voters who just have had sort of bad feelings, long time sort of bad history between those two communities. Another voter, John and Pierce talked to, was a man named Al Williams. You got a minute to talk with us? Okay. It's okay if we record this for a podcast. Alism Detroit. And an owner of several cannabis businesses. You know, how would you assess sort of like how progressive you are? You use centrist democrat. You're a progressive democrat. Where are you on the spectrum? Yeah, I'm a hardcore democrat, but you know, I'm more moderate than most. I'm not as progressive as a lot of people are making themselves out to be right now. But at the same time, I understand the importance of getting the whole team across the finish line. So do you have any concerns? I mean, this is a razor-close state. I mean, Trump won it in 2024. Do you have any concerns that the party did nominate a pretty far left progressive? I do. I do have concerns that we win a little too progressive this time around. He supports Else Ed now. But during the primary, he voted for the more moderate democrat. In the primary, there was a sense that he sort of struggled with black voters. You're a black voter. How do you think he's doing in this state now? Gotta do better. Why do you think? Why has that been a challenge? I mean, I think it's been a tradition, unfortunately, over the years of, you know, a very, very sensitive relationship between Arab Americans and African Americans. In the city of Detroit and Else were throughout the state. So historically, black Americans have been very important to the democratic base. How are black American Democratic voters embracing progressive politics? Black voters tend to be a little more skeptical of progressivism. They do tend to be sort of more traditional Democrats. Not that he doesn't have, you know, black voter support because he does, and you do see black voters at his events, but his events are often very heavily white and that does tend to sort of be where the greatest, you know, progressive movement excitement exists. Right now, Else Ed is pulling slightly higher than his opponent, Mike Rogers. But his rise has scrambled traditional party loyalties. Rogers, for instance, thinks he has an opportunity to pick up key Democratic voting blocks. This is exactly why the biggest coalition we have is Democrats for Rodgers. We're doing well with African Americans in the city of Detroit, in Pontiac, in Flint. We're doing exceptionally well with. And to try to win over Jewish Democrats, Rodgers has been saying that Else Ed hasn't condemned Hamas, which for the record he has. He gets money from people who support openly Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaia, and trying to tie him to the Democratic Socialists. Matter of fact, when his new Democrat Socialists Align policies are engaged, money in your pocket, you'll be lucky to have a damn pair of pants when you're done. What does this all say to you about Else Ed, than his path to the Senate? I mean, I think the path for him is possible. I think it probably is going to be a close race. He does have challenges, though, with certain parts of the Democratic base. And the question is whether the excitement and the progressive wing of the party about him will outweigh any of those voters in the Democratic base who are more skeptical of him. Tension within the Democratic Party isn't going away. Those on the left see their politics, as the one place where there's energy and excitement. But some Central Democrats worry that Republicans can use the rise of progressives as a cudgel to batter them in swing districts. Like, here's Republican candidate Mike Collins, Georgia. So, I mean, I think the Democratic Party definitely has its divisions right now. There'll be a very vigorous debate about what direction the party should go. Should it be more centralists? Should it go more to the left? I think probably no matter what, it's going to go at least somewhat more to the left. What happens if this gamble doesn't pay off for Democrats? Yeah, I mean, the stakes of this particular race are just extremely high because, again, if they can't win this seat, it's very hard to see them having a path to win control of the U.S. Senate. And so, yeah, this was a gamble to nominate somebody who is so progressive. And we'll see how it turns out. That's all for today, Wednesday, October 28th. Next week on Red Wedding Who, Election Day, and a whole bunch of results. Are you ready for Election Night? Yep, you never know what's going to happen on Election Night, so buckle up. Red Wedding Who is part of the Journal, which is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. This episode was produced by Pierce Singer and edited by Catherine Brewer, audio engineering by Peter Leonard. I'm Ryan Knudsen. Our theme music is by so wily and remixed by Peter Leonard, fact checking by Nicole Pasolka. Special thanks to Matt Kwong, Chris Matthews, Sarah Platt, and the whole Journal team. The Journal will be back with a regular episode this afternoon, and the next installment of Red Wedding Who will be out next Wednesday. See you then. [BLANK_AUDIO]