Reception Perception vs Fantasy Points Data - Matt Harmon's 10 WRs that Will SMASH ADP!

You read the title correctly. Today we are joined by Matt Harmon for an episode of Reception Perception, Verse Fantasy Points Data. We will be uncovering 10 wide receivers that will smash their ADP. I'm Brett Whitefield with my usual co-host, Mr. CEO, Scott Barrett, School is in session. (upbeat music) Matt, obviously the titles, click BADDY and JOKY. We're not here to fight. It's not actually Reception Perception, Verse Fantasy Points Data, but I thought it'd be a fun title. So how are you doing today, sir? - Hey, listen, you gotta get people through the front door, okay? So whatever you gotta do, title wise to get in here. But no, I am really excited for this conversation. I respect what you guys do so much. It is always funny. People wanna pit like the route, any sort of route stuff against each other. We're all trying to get to the same thing here. We're all trying to appreciate good football players and try to find out who's good. So I think any sort of pursuit of that is worthwhile here. - It's fun too, 'cause I mean, what we do is similar, but it's not the exact same, right? So it's like there is some nuance where we will have some variance between takes obviously and I think that's really cool. I got to have you on my draft show a few years back and really talk and dive into your process on Reception Perception. And the respect is mutual, Matt. We love you. We're constantly talking about you over here behind the scenes. So thanks for joining us today. No doubt, it's gonna be fun. - Scott, how are you, man? - I'm doing good. I'm ready to talk about. - Scott's like, let's stop with the formalities. Let's just jump into this. All right, let's start us off. So we had you prepare, you're bringing like six to the table. We're bringing like four to the table. Let's just dive right in with Nico Collins. This is the first guy you had on your list. Houston, Texans, wide receiver. He's been a favorite of mine for a while. And I think if you follow our separation data, the breakout he had in what 23 was really predictable, where you want on Nico. - Yeah, same here. Pretty much, again, this is where we're gonna cross paths a little bit on this one because Nico Collins for me in the first two seasons of his career was someone that really stood out. And kind of like in back then, it would be his profile would be pretty comparable to a T Higgins or a Michael Gallup type player, which good starting X receiver in the NFL. This guy actually can play. We'll see what the ceiling is and everything. And you just don't know it because he's playing in one of the most dysfunctional environments in the NFL that we can remember in recent history. So obviously that was who he was then, but then in 2023, his reception, perception, charting data really went to the moon. We're talking about some of the best separation numbers against success rate versus man and press coverage that I've charted in this last three seasons. And he just continues to do that despite what goes on around him. And his role is so fascinating because he pretty much is in a world guys where coaches are doing a great job like moving their primary targets around getting them all kinds of, you know, formation advantages, mismatches, and things of that nature. Like Collins is just lining up at X receiver and continuing to do dominant work. In 2025, his charting sample for reception perception, he took just 15% of his sample snaps in the slot. He was on the line of scrimmage for 89.5%. I have a breakdown coming on my YouTube channel where I compare Collins's role to like previously guys charted throughout the course of reception perception history, which is from 2014 to current. And there's like no one else in the last three years that has a comparable role to Nico Collins. And yet, as we're showing on the screen, even like beyond reception perception, this is one of the most productive receivers on a per-out basis the last three years. So I really like Nico this year because I think CJ Stroud is like, has gotten almost like a raw deal for how bad he was in the playoffs. Like I think he's a, I think he's a functional quarterback. I think the offense could be better in year 200 Nick Kaylee. I like Jayden Higgins as a complimentary receiver. I like, I really like Jaylen No, I wish he was healthy and obviously Tank Del's a good player there as well. But I do think this is mostly going to be a passing game that revolves around Nico Collins from like more two receiver sets and everything. So I just think he's a dominant player, like a top five receiver talent in the NFL. And I want to bet on that guy every single time. Yeah, I've been super high in Collins's the route runner. I think I did my just like talent rankings last year and I had Collins as a top five guy and everyone kind of turn their nose up at me a little bit. But I mean, you nailed it with the X receiver stuff. That is what he is. They do kind of a decent job of the condense him down a little bit to give him a little bit more free release into the second level, but it is a battle out there. He's going to war on every down as a true X receiver. I think among like primary players, only pickens really played true X more than you do. So yeah, very fascinating role there. And not kind of like what we're seeing these days, where your number one is usually a guy you move around the formation a bit, right? Exactly. I mean, it is insane just again, his role relative to somebody, you know, like I think what I guess I'm obsessed with this stuff, even though it ultimately doesn't matter, you know, ranking these guys against each other and everything. It's sort of a fruitless. And obviously we have to do a fantasy, but for real life. And I do the same exercise, Brett. Like I'm on Rossane Brown and Nico probably come up like in your league wide rankings pretty similarly, but their roles could not, they might as well be playing two different positions. Exactly. So funny. And that's what makes receivers so fun. But yeah, he's a really dominant player. I mean, I know I've seen other people have this sentiment on social media and we launched a player comparison tool this offseason that compares like previous profiles to current guys and I mean, all the way back to 2014 and everything. He's the closest guy in the league right now that comes up to like Julio Jones, comps or like old deads probably. And you know, just from a role perspective, it's very, very old school stuff. So you talk about the Per Rout stats and they're legitimately incredible over the last three seasons, top three in yards per route run, first downs per route run. The stat I have, if we can pull it up on the screen, is his last three seasons, his year three to year five, look identical to year three to year five of AJ Brown, which is, you know, again, another Per Rout monster, 81.4 yards per game to 81.3, 2.9, no yards per run to 2.79, but basically tied and everything. But then you look all the way down at fantasy points per game and AJ Brown, 16.5, that was low for AJ Brown. And that's kind of low for Nico Collins, where it's like, yeah, he looks great on a Per Rout basis, but the raw production is maybe a little lacking. A stat I have for you is minus one play against busted coverage where the cornerback fell down. AJ Brown has just one 100 yard game with CJ Stroud since Donald Trump won the election. Like that shouldn't happen when you're this freaking good. So what is wrong? Is it, you know, the lack of pass following in general? Is it CJ Stroud being something of a disappointment? Is it, you know, defense is just focusing all their attention on you? I, I feel like we should have more. And it's again, going back to AJ Brown, he was with the Titans and we're like, all right, this guy is unbelievable. And for fantasy, he's like a fringe wide receiver one. And then he goes to the right situation. He goes to Eagles and he's, you know, top three in fantasy points per game. He's breaking leagues. What do we need from the Texans? What do we need from CJ Stroud to unlock that, you know, Julio Jones' ass outside? I think for me, it does kind of come back to the deployment because even if you just think about like from a structural perspective, it's much, and I've talked with NFL receivers about this. It's a lot easier to take a guy out of the game if you know where they're going to be every single time. And even just some of those longer developed, like his, his most commonly run routes and reception perception for every, but it's basically everything year are like big dig routes, you know, which take a longer time to develop. It's behind a chaotic offensive line. It is a quarterback in Stroud, which even if I'm like something of a stride apologist in just that I think he's gotten to the last two games he's on play were two of the worst games you're going to see from any quarterback. But I generally think like he's a fine starting quarterback in the league, but he's still a guy that's developed really bad habits under pressure to me and like his responses to that. And he kind of lets things spiral in a way. So again, if you're just this guy that everybody knows where you're going to be pretty snap, you got to run these longer developing routes by a bad offensive line. Like that does take some of the potency away from him as an individual producer. So I think the things that would need to change for Nico is obviously the line's got to get better strides got to get better of course, but I would like to see him move around the formation more. And I don't know where you guys are with Jaden Higgins. I had a little bit more questions about him as a prospect, but I kind of liked his film as a as a Z receiver last year. But I would like to see him even be used as just like a sacrificial ex every now and again, you know, just to free up Nico. Just to free up Nico a little bit. So yeah, I think with Nico, those are some of the variables that would need to change. And frankly, like when AJ Brown first got to Philadelphia, he wasn't immediately the extra Zieber for that team. Like Devon Tessmith played a lot of ex those first couple of years to get AJ Brown into those favorable situations. So I think that would be how like he takes that next step AJ Brown wise, but while still saying on the same team, what super interesting is Nick Kayley is a Josh McDaniel's disciple and that air heart Perkins offense. Usually you see more of movement with those receivers. Like it's really weird how stubborn he's he was in that one year last year. But I thought one of the fascinating things is they'd even go like wing, like a wing formation with the tight ends off the line of scrimmage. And they'd have a double X kind of set up with Higgins and Collins. And it's like there's he just means they obviously have a type with what they like I think Higgins is totally as potential to be a Collins clone and the way they're developing him and the potential route running, you know, size adjusted route running there, but it, Kaylee really needs to not be so stubborn. I thought that was definitely a huge, I was calling him a Ponzi scheme all last year. So it was such a disappointment, man, too, because I was hoping that it would be like a little bit of the best of the both worlds where you talk about like the air heart, perkins stuff, like McDaniel's and Patriot style, but also blending in some of what you would assume he would learn with the Rams the last few years and he was there. And it was kind of like neither of those things, which is really just his own thing, man. Yeah. So we're talking ADP. So, you know, Niko's what, the wide receiver 11 right now, is that right Scott? Could be. Could be. So you like him at ADP, who are you taking him over? You know, are you taking him over an AJ Brown or Rashi Rye, so George Pickens or you, yeah, I would take him over all of those guys and Drake London too. London and him. London and Niko are the two that like my co-host that the Adui Fantasy forecast and I Justin Boone and I recently debated like he took the Drake one inside. I took the Niko column side while we both admitted that it is so close, obviously between these two players. I just I just find like there's more ways I can talk myself into a step forward with the Texans offense than I can with the Falcons offense this year. And I love Drake one that like I would posit that London is probably one of one of like my favorite receivers in the league, even if I don't think he's like a best receiver in the league. He's one of my favorite receivers in the league. But I do think that I can talk myself into more steps forward for the Texans offense. I think they're comparable talents. If like not Niko is a step ahead of Drake London, but ultimately again, it is so close that in a draft recently, I was faced with the decision between the two and I did hedge my bets a little bit and took London because I usually take Niko. So it's close, but I think I would take Niko there. It's purely environment for you then on Drake, which is like two appendix, not great, just a fanski, not great. The environment. I'm assuming Matt Ryan's out there taking, taking, throwing some passes in the training camp recently. Like that's what they're quarterback situations. I don't want to totally fade London because of quarterback situation because I think he's a quarterback friendly receiver. And I think to actually in a scammy way, like kind of overlaps well with the London big slot stuff. But yeah, it's mostly just environment. I have no questions about London as a player. Awesome. Let's move on. Jalen Waddle, the Denver Broncos really only acquisition of the offseason and free agency trade or significant draft picks. It was Jalen Waddle. Like, that's the difference maker that they're counting on this year. I've been all over Waddle, all offseason. It sounds like you like him as well. Were you at on Mr. Waddle? I think Waddle is probably the most mispriced player in fantasy right now. And really has been throughout the course of the offseason at the wide receiver position because I think there's a couple of things that people misunderstand about Jalen Waddle. One, it's really freaking good player. Like just number one, he's really good. He can be press man coverage. He can win against zone. He can win on the downfield breaking routes, but also can win in the quick game. That's part of it. Number one, I think people kind of look at the raw stats last year and see, you know, it wasn't that great. Even though Tyree Kill missed a bunch of time, then you think, well, Miami was 30 second in plays run last year. The Broncos are not going to be 30 second in plays run this year. They're going to be a much better offensive environment. And I think the thing that really seals the deal for me with Waddle is that people don't realize again to come back to alignment. He for the most part has been just an outside on ball receiver for Miami because they've been doing all the fun move around catering stuff for Tyree Kill. Again, that is not going to happen in Denver with Portland Sutton as the extra receiver. So I think for the first time in his career, Waddle is going to get a layup targets. He's going to probably take a career high snaps off ball this year. And you know, say what you want about Bonyx or whatever, I think this is a quarterback upgrade for Jalen Waddle. So I just think the deployment part of this, like his role is going to look a lot like Brandon Cook's for like the 2016 Saints where Cook's took the highest rate of his snaps off ball that year. I'm so excited about Waddle. I think I haven't as like wide receiver 12 this year. I've been just all over the season. That component you just said is what I've been trying to articulate where I think if you pulled like 90% of fantasy analysts like, hey, where do you think Jalen Waddle lines up on the football field, they would all tell you slot or Z. None of them realize he was a primary extra receiver for the dolphins. Yep. And he's undersized and needs to be off ball to really tap into his skill set. They have Portland Sutton and towing Denver and Bonyx is a candidate to lead the league and dropbacks. He did last year, you know, so a fantastic situation. I think Waddle should absolutely eat his skill set is tailor made for Bonyx as well. Couldn't agree more with you on this take. Scott, were you on the ball? Just to put a number real quick to what we're talking about here in from 2022 to 2024, Waddle took 77% of his snaps in reception perception as an outside receiver and was on the line of screen which were 81%. This past year, even with even with Hill out, he took 78.5% on the line was outside for 83.9%. So yeah, just again, the role could not be more different than what people imagine here for Waddle and Miami. Absolutely. Scott, were you out on Waddle? Well, I'm just curious, Matt, when you think this does to Portland Sutton, it over the last year and a half, Portland Sutton is 12 and XFP per game, 15th and fantasy points per game. He's the 80 p wide receiver 39 on underdog. Do you think he just like really out alphas, bottle out alphas Sutton turning him into a beta or, you know, could he still be comparably productive, even with Waddle? I think comparably productive would have to mean like a massive leap for Bonyx and just the offense in general. Sutton's just not been somebody that I've been drafting because I think, again, we saw this at times last year where, you know, Frick and Troy Franklin, you know, all respect, you know, meant for Troy Franklin here, NFL player. But like he would out target Sutton for a long period of time during last season because he was playing as that movement zero receiver and getting more of those layup looks. And again, the Sutton thing is we're talking about someone that in that Nico Collins variety is running those big in breaking routes from the extra receiver position and you got a quarterback. Bonyx I think is a good player, but plays it, puts himself in chaos at times, even the behind a really good offensive line with just the way he plays the game. Those longer developing routes is harder to get to those. So now you haven't even firt and Sutton, I think, is several tiers lower over player than Nico Collins as much as I think Sutton's solid starting X. So I just think there's going to be a lot more of the layup looks going to Waddle and overall someone who's just going to be manufactured work, you know, and deserves that manufactured work here too. So I think Sutton's just someone when I've, you know, come up and he's been in the area of ADP and everything like that. I just find there are guys going around him that have comparable floors, but like higher potential ceilings, I suppose, that go like around later. I've made the, oh, sorry, it's got to go ahead. The best comp I've heard on Jaylon Waddle this year is from Jacob Sanderson. He's like, this is just 2025 George Pickens all over where he's, you know, goes to a much better offense. And yeah, current ADP is anywhere between wide receiver 20 on FFPC. That's the low to wide receiver 24 on ESPN. So that looks like pretty good value to me. I've been making the argument that I think Sutton and Waddle can coexist and Sutton can still be good. You know, and I already mentioned Nick's led the league and drop-axe last year. Davis Webb is going to be calling the plays now. He's going to be, I think, conceptually a little bit more explosive play friendly to the offense than Sean Payton was who is perfectly okay, dinking and dunking down the field. So I, yeah, I just feel really good about this. I think, you know, even if Nick's takes a marginal step, I think they could sustain production. They've cobbled together some productivity with kind of a money ball approach at wide receiver outside of Sutton with Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin's of the world. And now I just think they have two horses to, you know, to line up and just go to work with. So I'm a little more bullish than I think you guys on both of them being able to play together. But, you know, I like Sun at ADP. I love Waddle at ADP if that makes sense. Well, from an NFL perspective, that was one of the first things that jumped out to me when they made this trade was just how complimentary they looked by the numbers. I know this is very much a quarterback stat. But over the last three seasons, Courtland Sutton ranks eighth in yards for route run against man. He ranks 40th against zone. Jaylen Waddle, basically the reverse of that. He's seventh in yards for route run against zone. Waddle 34th against man. So maybe Sutton's the man beater, Waddle the zone beater. But bread always yells at me and tells me that's a quarterback. I will tell you that's a quarterback stat, too. At least at least at least for Waddle with the man coverage stuff because I actually do think that is sometimes the yards per route versus different coverages can be kind of at least like directly accurate. I do kind of think that's like right for Sutton. But that also comes down to just the role that he plays in everything too. He is a better man coverage beater than his own beater. But yeah, my just because you mentioned the George Pickens comp. My comp for this situation is like when Stefan Diggs got to Buffalo and both of these got. And by the way, I said that at the time of the trade and then I saw Davis Webb actually made the same comparison. I'm just going to say Davis Webb is one of the guys who listens to podcasts. So maybe he stole that from me. We'll talk about that off air Davis. But no, I think that that was one where like Diggs we all knew was good. But like reception perception wise, he was one of the best receivers in the league and then he becomes like an I do think that is within the possibility for a guy like Jaylen Waddle this year. So yeah, I mean, and Diggs was another guy that just after that trade hovered around like why like sub wide receiver 20 ADP Like never moved and for all the steam people liking Waddle. He's another one that's been tough to get out of the wide receiver 20 range Davis Webb for what it's worth for those that don't know he played for the Buffalo Bills at the time that that trade was made So definitely a nice little comp there So he's probably not taking notes from my podcast. Yeah, probably just his own lived experience You want to know his nickname was when he was on the Giants What was I would love to dragon web Dragon Elyman and called it drag That was like three years ago too that he played for like the Giants. So it's crazy some of these young play callers out there now Okay, it is crazy that it's the whole league is being taken over by these former Cubes Let's move on Roma Dune's a they say that rights got Grand Prix police here Roma Dune's a You like him Matt and I like him too. I've been team Rome vs team Luther all off season And so yeah exactly Scott's gonna ask me but We don't even have to talk about the Luther component But I do want you to talk about Roma Dune's a yeah We're gonna have to disagree here at some point Brett because I feel the same way about that one Although I do refuse to participate in the culture war of like you got to hate one guy to like the other Cuz I actually do right do really like both of these players Unfortunately, like the fantasy market does kind of point you really to a Dune's a because he goes so much later than Luther Berg which I don't think makes any sense like in fairness The Dune's a just our type of receiver is you know kind of similar to what I said with Drake London Just like my type of wide out where he gets open at all three levels. He separates really well I think he's such a smart player that You know one of the arguments against Roma Dune's that you hear from people's like well, you know Listen Ben Johnson drafted Colson. Love the name. He drafted Luther Burton. He inherited Roma Dune's a well He inherited Roma Dune's and then proceeded to run his entire offense through him in the first eight weeks of the season And talked about what again a smart player this guy was and you could put a lot on his plate like he's another one that I think people Think of him and maybe he will line up more at extra seaver this year because you know DJ Moore is gone and because burdens the guy that you do want to kind of move around the formation So I think that I want to acknowledge that's possible But last year like burden I mean excuse me a Dune's it was mostly like a movement player for this team He was not a stationary target like routes in full motion and he's so athletic like you see the on the screen here The 83.6 percent success rate on digs 83.3 percent on out routes those big cuts like 90 degree angle routes in the middle of Intermediate area of the field He's so good there because of how athletic and how technically smart he is So I just think like if he didn't pick up the foot injury, you know coming out of week eight This would be like an obvious guy to take that next next step this year and as long as he's healthy I mean, I think we're I think we're full systems go here So I think it's very alive that he's the most productive pass catcher In Chicago this year and it sounds like based on what he said this week, you know the I think the Ultimately, I think the foot comments that he made were a little bit like people took it and ran with it I hopefully he's fine. We'll see you about all that The the roll with I like that you said, you know, you don't have to hate one, you know, you can really like both of them But I don't I hate one and I it happens to be Roma Dune's a I felt like earlier in the offseason There is a devil's advocate argument one could be making Where he would just like have brutal luck Because if you if you reflect back on his final year of college He punctured a lung and broke multiple ribs and didn't miss a single game He just played out the remainder of the year like that everyone was like oh, he's a warrior, you know That was something, uh, you know, Ryan Paul's talked about when he drafted him, um, you know, he's a dog and then his rookie year Uh in Week one or week two he picked up a grade two MCL sprain And he played through that His entire rookie season it's like oh, you know, it was an underwhelming rookie year And then last year yeah, five games he was incredible What a top seven fantasy wide receiver 8.3 targets per game 19.9 fantasy points per game through the first four weeks So actually uh third best in fantasy points per game And then he kind of fell off and it and it seemed to coincide with yet another injury it was this this foot injury And so like you know Zooming out you there's a lot of Signs that he might just be Abust you know like you look at his numbers uh by yards per target over expectation over the last two years He's bottom three and it's just like all bus inside the bottom 10 Brett would say That's a Caleb stat because he's also bottom three in catchable target rate Ballad Which that is an endorsement for Rome by the way He does play with Caleb Williams. That's not a good thing to me. So Continue Fair enough. Yeah, but anyway, so it was all these injuries and it like I wanted to make the devil's advocate argument It's like oh, maybe he could just stay healthy um But then you know he's talking about the new normal with this foot and you had Alan Robinson like replied to Uh a tweet and he was like oh, yeah, that that happened to me was never was never the same after that It was basically over and we have an injury expert Jeff Mueller who's kind of It uh really worried about this being the new normal in terms of Uh added risk of compensatory injuries You know, maybe doesn't exactly move the same And so you'd like you added all up it just for a guy who ready kind of just You know very few analytical numbers you can hang your hat on and and feel inspired by um And then you have this foot injury too. I don't know I that just drove me to being like wildly team Luther Okay, can I just say the one thing about the Alan Robinson thing and and this is coming from somebody that was the biggest Alan Robinson fan on planet earth when when he was in his prime That's right. That's right He picked up that foot injury like in the middle of his season with the Rams I think people saw that and we're like oh that's what caught like It was not looking good for Alan Robinson before that before that foot injury So I just want to note I just want to note that in the in the in the spirit of intellectual honesty here He's cooked. Yeah, also the Rome interview in which he was trained like He was just I felt like he got caught in a moment of candidacy where he was just being candid with with the fans Just saying hey, this what happened to me last year. This is where my head was at I don't know that he was saying that to like disqualify himself for future production. You know what I mean like yeah if every player was completely candid about where their body is at You would be alarmed How many guys are dealing with you know dals Like the league neighbors at the league neighbors are dealing with a new normal right now like I mean even just because he didn't say it Again, that was where my whole thing was just I do think and he that's what he said or yesterday at the podium was I think that just kind of like went with the wind a little bit It got taken you know in a lot of different directions But I it's definitely worth acknowledging that you know it's a serious injury and like maybe he doesn't look like the same player coming back from it But I think the player before the injury was I'm totally willing to just toss out the stats and and say like this is a really good football player when I watch him Yeah, and another example too is Amika Buka who first five weeks of the season just like Romo Dunze top five in production and then He picked up an injury and kind of battled that throughout the rest of the year and you know now hopefully he's fully healthy And he goes what six rounds earlier than Romo Dunze That's a good good comparison All right, let's let's continue on one thing I loved about your list mat is a lot of the guys you submitted our guys Scott and I have already talked about a bunch So it's kind of like almost like a hive mind but Josh Downs who's been kind of a primary slot for the Colts I've had concerns with this role because he's Rant 17 routes from 12 personnel last year basically an 11 only guy they are saying they're gonna get him on the field more Which gets me excited but the opportunity is obviously there Matt. What are you seeing with Josh? Yeah, I always I think Josh Downs might have been one of the guys Brett you and I talked about on that show way back in the day I think you're right. Yeah, because I've just always been a huge downs fan I think he's more in the mold of someone like a Tyler Lockett who can be like a more downfield vertical slot That can play Z and 12 personnel and then kick inside when we get into the 11 personnel and like honestly guys We could sit here and talk about Again, I think Josh Downs is a great player great separator I'd be surprised if your guys's charting data disagreed with that I think we can all watch Josh down, but this guy get knows how to get open But we can talk about like well. He's never played from 12 He's never I think if they don't get him on the field as one of their you know top eligible pass catchers this year based on their depth chart Like they're it Shane's psych and is an idiot and I don't think Shane's psych and is an idiot I think Shane's psych is really good at this and I think it kind of makes sense why he didn't play a lot last year And he's coming off a really disappointing season You know over like like this comment here Josh down says James Crowder totally disagree like to I think I think James and Crowder's like A pop gun slot receiver and Josh Downs can actually do a lot more than that and like really win on big routes down the field and stuff So to me, I think there are ways schematically they can get Josh Downs, you know kind of slot-ish reps from 12 personnel if they align the two tight ends on one side and two receivers on one side And they did that you know very very sparingly last year I think it's just kind of how they'll have to build it this year with Alec Pierce Josh Downs and then Question mark, you know for at wide season three and everything so I think I hope Downs doesn't get too steamed up I'd love to get him later and where he goes kind of now in the 40s. I think is totally palatable Yeah, the two by two wing and the three by one tracets for Downs should be big in 12 If they really want to hide them in the slot, they can still do it for sure. One thing that's notable too is if you look at our separation score metrics in the data suite, when you curb the routes run for just primary slot guys, guys that play like at least 40% of their snaps in the slot, downs is like third in separation score. He's behind Jamar Chase and Amon Rossing Brown. It's like, well, that's a really good company to be in. So I'll take the production there, the future production there with downs. Scott, what do you think about Mr. Downs? I love him. Yeah, he's for sure one of my guys. For the last two years, he ranks 12 in targets per route run with Michael Pittman off the field jumps to a 0.31 targets per route run, which would rank behind only Puka. And then over the same span, if you look at games, he played over two thirds of the team's snaps. He averages 8.6 targets per game, 15.6 fantasy points per game. Those are all top 10 numbers. And then you look at the quarterbacks he's done that way. It was three games with Anthony Richardson, three games with a 39 year old Joe Flacco, two games with the literal grandfather, Philip Rivers, and then just one game with Daniel Jones. And so you have improved quarterback play. You have him in now in a full time role. You have Alec Pierce. I don't know if you saw the video, Matt, but like his left calf is like 50% the size of the right one. That doesn't really bowed well for him. And so it's yeah, it looks like to me, it's going to have to be the Josh Downs and Tyler Warren show in 2026. Well, even if Pierce is healthy, let's just say he's healthy. He's never had more than what 84 targets in a season. Yeah, right. And also Daniel Jones has an injury where maybe like that limits it really drive the ball down the field. But they also vacated 140 target a year guy in pitman. Yeah, you know, Warren's an ascending player. But that was the sad I had is Josh Downs targets per route run with pitman off the field was behind only Puka. Yeah, that's that's incredible. There's another one of our all time guys, Matt Harmon is Deontay Johnson, right? There's some Deontay Johnson ask, you know, like this is a target earner, which, you know, targets are worth a lot in PPR leagues. Yeah, totally. Downs plays like a psychopath, too. I want that to be stated for the record. It's actually one of my, I wrote them up as a negative is that at his size, I'm just not sure he can sustain throwing his body around like he does. But because he plays like that, he's like, too, yeah, right. He's a quarterback's best friend though, because they know no matter where they put the ball, bounds will find a way to get to it. And he will lay out running full speed into traffic, taking hits, doesn't matter. Plays like an absolute unchained lunatic. Yeah, I do worry about that. I will say looking at Josh Downs as quads, you know, this all sees. I think he's put on a little bit of weight. So hopefully he's put up some size to get to be able to handle that because yeah, that's like him and Lad McConkey are these are the two guys that it's like, you know, success rate wise, role wise, I think they can and look lad has played a good bit outside receiver in the NFL. But I just don't love that they got to kind of like scrape themselves off the turf every time, you know, we're getting laid into the season here. All right, Matt, you have a type apparently because the next guy on your list is Jaden Reed. Yeah, this is, oh, now we're totally in Matt Harmon, Felford again, territory. It's just funny coming off of Downs who played 17 routes in 12 personnel. Jaden Reed ran a whopping one route from 12 personnel last year in the Green Bay Packers led the NFL in 12 personnel usage. So maybe they were second to Cleveland or something like that, but they were up there. 30% of their plays were in 12 personnel. So this is concerning because if he doesn't get the role bump, we're in concerning territory. But I think you and I might be confident he is going to get the role bump. Were you at? I mean, I got a hope he gets the role bump here because he's just such a good player. Last season, you almost kind of have to throw out because it was completely injury rid in. And he comes in with like the foot injury in the off season and then he suffers the collarbone injury and week two going up for a contested pass. And then he got surgery on both injuries during the year. So it just was like total mess. Andrew, I says come back to I think week 14. But when Jaden Reed's been on the field, it's kind of funny because when I chart him as a prospect, I thought it's some of his best work was like as a Z receiver against Manacoverge on the outside. And then you look at what he's been in green Bay, he's been this kind of like manufactured touch slot only option. I just really wasn't the role that I kind of imagined for him. So maybe the Packers are right on this and I'm wrong totally willing to acknowledge that. But I just look at the receiver room right now. I do think the second problem for Reed beyond the fact that he hasn't played in 12 personnel that's kind of crushed his snap counts is just this room always rotates. And I can't imagine that they're going to rotate this like I think Matt LaFour even admitted to this end of being a pretty big problem for the team where guys weren't happy with their roles. And it wasn't kind of at least to me. It was notable to see that the two of the guys at the part of the team worked on Tavine Wix and Romeo Dobbs. I think that's part of it. So in theory, I think they've got a three receiver set of Watson Reed and Golden. I'm curious honestly where you guys are on Matthew Golden because I don't have a strong take on Golden coming out of his rookie year. He stinks. Okay, he stinks. That's your take as he stinks. He's his charting profile like wasn't so bad that I'd be like forget it. It's already over for this guy like a Jalen Rager or Terrace Marshall type Justin Hunter, you know, in fairness, Quentin Johnson had a had a profile like this coming out of his rookie year. And I think he's improved. But it wasn't that bad. But it also wasn't so good that I was like get this guy the ball. What are we talking about? How could they not play this guy more? So he just kind of had a very whatever rookie season. And I kind of thought he was I was a little bit of a centrist on him as a prospect. So if he's the guy that he was last year, Reed should mock Matthew Golden. Like that's the long and short of it. Yeah, there's that word again. Scott taught me about what Mog means because I'm a boomerick. Because I'm learning. I can't let you get away with something. So I didn't like Jalen Reed as a prospect. And then he had what looked appeared to be like a really bad rookie season. Like if you average under one yards per out run as a rookie, it's like sickly over every time. Right. Yeah, I'm talking about Matthew Golden. But Brett, you have to if he's so bad, why was his ass so good? Because his ass was really good last year. I was actually going to organically address this. Yeah. So there's some views. The separation scores look really good. And it's possible. He develops and gets better for sure. But a lot of what he does is what I call tick-tock improv route running where it's like, yeah, and if he's going to manufacture a one on one look, he can go win that. The problem is it's not going to be at the correct depth. It's going to be with an extra step or two. The brakes not going to be where Jordan Loving, Matt LaFlor won it. And he's not going to see targets unless Jordan loves extending a play and finding him in space. He has to get more discipline. This is true for pretty much all the Texas guys that have come out at an Imitrault Insane separator, right? But it's almost 100% improv. Xavier Worthy, Insane separator, the UDFA dude that went to Cleveland last year, I can't think of his name, the vertical guy. Super fast. Anyways, really good stuff. Yeah, I say it bon. Insane separator, but zero discipline in the route running, right? And so, yeah, in these tick-tock type routes, yeah, he can go route a guy up and it looks cool and he separates. But it's like not super functional for a timing and rhythm based offense. And so unless the goal then does take a step and he gets more discipline, I think you're going to see him continue to kind of have that the role that he did. See, I think this is where we get into a really fun, like, nerdy distinction about again, where how like you the separation score is charted and then was like kind of against what I do because I thought that was fat. I've seen some of like the, at least the post about, you know, Matthew Golden likes his ass. I can't believe you guys don't really say that. Anyway, so I seem like it was, it was, it was really high. Or whatever, it's like, I just didn't really like match his success rates essentially when I'm charting. And I think that is because I'm a pretty stickler about like the depth and kind of everything like that. So, yeah, that makes, that actually does make a lot of sense where I agree with you Brett. Like, he definitely has an ability to, when he creates separation, it's a lot of separation. Yeah. I just don't think the like consistency is something that he ever found last year. And that was an issue as a prospect. I mean, 23% tile success rate for zone for a player of his archetype that I think is probably more of a Z. Honestly, I really hope, because I'm a little bit like back and forth on Christian Watson too and that I think he is, he's coming off the best season of his career, bar none, which is insane because he towards ACL in the same calendar year. But he's still just again, archetype wise, always going to be a little bit volatile. And I think he leans more into that volatility, the more he played at X. Jacob Gibbs, who we mentioned earlier, is the one who turned me on to this staff. But Christian Watson, last year average, significantly higher targets per route run when Romeo Dobbs was on the field. And some of that is like correlation causation, maybe. But to me, I think just football wise, schematically, it makes sense that Dobbs is the outside on ball receiver, Watson moving around and getting some of those designer looks. I hope that Matthew Golden almost gets is a little bit of the sacrificial X receiver here because he has a decent ability to like pull away in one-on-one situations. And we get, you know, Watson and Reed doing kind of more of the fun stuff. That's fair. So, so the stat last year, Matthew Golden, 16th and As, all the way down to 67th in separation win rate. So, yeah, not really consistent. But when he was getting open, he was getting a lot of separation. Really? Jacob Gibbs said I believe you're referencing last year. Christian Watson average 0.25 targets per route run and 2.73 yards per route run with Romeo dobs off the field. Those are both top five numbers. One more Jane Reed said for you. And I think this really highlights what we were saying about the upside that he possesses is you look at the top 12 wide receivers by fantasy points per route run over the last three years. Tell me if there's not a superstar on this list, Matt. Pooke Nakua Tyree Kale, Armanra, Nico, AJ Brown, Mike Evans, CD Lam, Jamar Chase, Devonte Adams, JSN, Drake London, Jaden Reed. Is there any of those guys not a superstar? Yeah, Jane Reed might be the one surprise, but hey, if he gets on the field in those heavy personnel looks after Matthew Golden had a really disappointing rookie season. Those like the sky's the limit. Personally, I'm putting all my chips on Christian Watson. I've just always been a Christian Watson guy, but I certainly can't fault anyone for being a jean retreater. Right on. All right. Last guy on Matt's list and we'll get into some Scott and I guys Romeo dobs, which is also Scott and I guy, but. Oh, nice. Yeah, I'm curious if you think he's going to get that slot role in the McDaniel offense or why you're high on him, but I'm very excited to hear you take here. Well, as you're kind of talking about a little bit off air, I just think we saw signs of decline with AJ Brown last year. And even if you do, which I hate to do this and yet I've done it for a couple of injury guys this year, even if you kind of split like the charting profile between pre-buy and post-buy for AJ Brown, where he was, you know, again, I think playing with the hamstring injury at the beginning of the year and the whole deal. His numbers in the back half of the season are still they're good. They're like, but they're not peak AJ Brown. Like I think we're the fantasy high mind is drafting is if peak AJ Brown has gone to New England and even New England, like if they thought they were getting peak of their power is AJ Brown, they wouldn't be haggling for like, actually, well, he'd be the 2028 first round pick, you know, or anything like that. And so I think they're even not expecting Brown to be what he, I mean, they might be even overshodding their expectations. I just to me want to like find ways to get in on this New England offense without paying the iron price for AJ Brown. And I just think dobs has become a really solid player. Like last season, especially really played well against press man coverage as kind of an outside on ball receiver. I'm curious if those movement skills on some of the routes that like we're seeing here are the in breaking routes translate well to that slot receiver position. I actually am super fascinated to see what this receiver room looks like because I think if they're top three receivers and Brad, I'd be curious to see your opinion on this is like they're top three receivers. If they're brown, dobs and K-Shampoody, like those are all three guys that were basically extra receivers last year. And I think dobs is the one of the three that has the most like move around potential. Even if Brown, I think would be more maximized if he took more snaps off ball, which by the way is his highest rate of snaps off ball ever in his career was his final year in Tennessee with Mike Vrable and current Patriots receiver coach Todd Downing is the offensive coordinator. So I think that would help Brown. But even then, like I still think dobs is a really quality player who could win against press coverage as an outside on ball receiver. So to me, I just, I like betting on dobs as a guy who can play well with Drake May and is attached to good offense. Yeah, I kind of want to see the stack up with K-Shampoody at the X, AJ at the Z and dobs at the big slot hole. It's kind of a small sample, but dobs in his career with Green Bay is 96 percentile separation score from the slot. It's well over like 150 routes run. So it's not like it's a small sample, but it's not tiny, you know, and totally as yards per route run was also like 2.8 or something like that from the slot in his career there. So like, I think he can do it. And it seems like from all the buzzer getting out of camp so far, that is what they vision for him. It does unfortunately, though, seem like he's heading to compete with pop Douglas. That could be just like an ode to the old vet though, right? Like his pop has been there for so long, but I've seen a lot of Romeo running with the twos right now. It's so early in camp though, you can't really put a ton of stock into that stuff, but I just see this report from so shout out to our guys, Zane Denani. I know you just had him on your show, Matt, but he's been you just on top of all news, but he had some way on top. I mean, my God, he gets accusations that he's AI. Nope, just just a dude. Real person with incredible work ethic. But some of the tweets he's been putting out from some of the best Patriots beatwriters are saying like they envision Romeo dobs as like Stefan Diggs plus. They see him as this sort of PPR cheat code in the offense, whereas AJ Brown is the field stretcher, putting an added strain on the defense, where maybe the target volume is not so high, but he opens things up for Romeo dobs, which first and multiple beatwriters saying big slot, Josh McDaniel's big slot. And they're really stuck in the back of my mind for two reasons. One is the Josh McDaniel slot role. Remember when we used to chase that? And if you look back since Josh McDaniel's first year as an OC, his slot wide receiver, just wide receiver to lead the team in targets has finished top 12 in fantasy points for game. 44% of his seasons top 25 72% of his seasons, Romeo dobs current ADP wide receiver 52. And then I pulled up the ass. I looked, I was looking at the ass. I was looking at Romeo dobs. I'll ask from the slot over the last two years, he leads all wide receivers and average separation score from the slot. And you look at the, the, the names on this list. It's Zay flowers, it's George Pickens, it's Malik neighbors, it's Jamar Chase, Amin Rod, Justin Jefferson. And so it's a small sample here, but yeah, maybe this is perfect. Maybe this is, you know, what Romeo dobs is perfectly suited for to play this position. And it's maybe the focal point of the Josh McDaniel's offense. I know people want to say, yeah, yeah, well, they had Wes Welker, they had Julian Edelman, they had Jacobi Myers. Those were all UDFA's. Those were all round seven draft picks are UDFA's. And so, you know, maybe that's a real role that that Josh McDaniel's wants and covets. And that's why they went out and signed Romeo dobs this off season. So I'm doing my draft guide. And I just went on the, it's like 99% of the way done. I just went on Jacob Gibbs show yesterday. And I was telling him I'm like, yeah, but like once I'm 99% done, I allow myself to like put on the tin foil hat and get crazy. And me getting crazy was like, am I way too high on AJ Brown and way too low on Romeo dobs? And it seems like both of you are telling me, no, you're not, you don't need to take your meds. You're actually right. No, I like it. Yeah. Pop Douglas, he ran around on like 36% of the dropbacks last year. So it would be hard for me to imagine like, no, they're actually going to play him more this year. I mean, maybe that prevents dobs from being like a full full time player. But yeah, no, I think we are all, where maybe all gaslighting ourselves further, the three of us that like we need to be on a not Romeo dobs a little bit. Cause yeah, I agree. Like it's just his ADP is the one that really stands out here at least from this offense right now. So can we talk about AJ Brown too, the concerns that both of you are seeing on film? Yeah, Matt, why don't you go ahead? Yeah, I mean, for me, like AJ Brown is one of my favorite receivers of all time. Same. Yeah, he's a guy who very digs it. Who we brought up earlier was, and we kind of talked about this with Nico Collins was producing an isolation in reception perception, like an elite, elite capital E receiver. And then he goes to Philadelphia and then the production kind of matches it. And even to me, like in 2024, he was number one in success rate, verse man coverage for the players I charted in 2024. Like I thought it was still awesome in in 24. Then last year, just really right away and throughout the course of the season, we saw like a significant drop off in him and against man zone press coverage, especially on the downfield vertical routes. Like I think he's still one downfield. He made big plays downfield, but was someone that was living off more of like contested catches and stuff. And so he could still do that. And you've kind of even seen that like the high, I don't want to put a lot of stock in highlights from camp, but a lot of like his big wins in camp or these kind of tight coverage contested catch downfield opportunities, which I would prefer to see him at this point, be more of a movement guy, but we'll see how that goes. To me, just like, I've made the mistake of kind of looking at a, all right, we're seeing like even if it's small signs of decline for this archetype of receiver at, you know, 29 years old, tons of lower body injuries and just been like, it's okay. It's just one, one thing. It just does remind me a little bit of like we mentioned now in Robinson earlier when he went to Los Angeles and was like, yeah, there were some signs of decline in Chicago, but like he wasn't happy and you know, whatever dealing with injuries and then he, but he's getting this massive quarterback upgrade. And it kind of reminds me of a very similar story here with the AJ Brown thing. Another receiver again that I really, really liked at his peak. So yeah, I just, the drop off in isolation is pretty, is pretty clear to me. I don't know what that means in terms of exactly what he'll be, if he's the player that he was even just in isolation last year, I still think that's a fine solid starting extra receiver, but with receiver decline, you just have to be careful. to ask yourself what the next step is. Is it like this or is it right off the cliff? And that's where it just gets tough historically to pay like a second round ADP on AJ Brown. I've set it on the show a bunch, but I'll say it again. I have access through League Source to some of their GPS data. This isn't like as a ball carrier type stuff that's publicly available on NGS. This is like down in, down out stuff. The decline started like halfway through the 24 season from an exit VLO standpoint, getting out of the stands, acceleration, and then the D style, which is mad, I'm sure you agree. That's actually the most important trade for receivers. Totally. Totally to stop and change directions. Both of those things decline precipitously in 24. And then we saw a bigger drop off last year from the 2024 spot. So that's got me like shook. Like I agree. Like I think I still think he's a quality starting X for sure. But one of the things that made AJ so powerful was like he could take a slant or a shallow 80 yards on a given play or he could go beat you over the top on a nine row or crush a too high look with a post. And it's like if he doesn't have that same level of twitch, it's just going to be those wins are going to be a lot fewer. And you're looking at more of a possession style chain mover receiver instead of this explosive play demon that he's been. And so I just get a little concerned that the decline is real. At the same time, I can talk myself out of it and just say, well, what if it was just a gap issue? Like what if he was so unhappy and filly? I know they want a Super Bowl on 24. So it's kind of even ridiculous to say it out loud. But what if he just was so upset with the situation? He just didn't care last year. And the hamstring was like the icing on the cake. He just checked out. We saw it with Devonte Adams in Vegas, right? And it's like, well, all of a sudden he goes to the Jets and he looks like a legit receiver again. Then he tears it up at the Rams last year. So that's got me a little like hesitant on my own take. But I am with you. I'm a little concerned about AJ Brown. Yeah. Let's just I would be just curious if there was ever a guy. And I think the Adams one is tough just because like one of his last games with the Raiders. He dunked all over the Ravens and stuff like that. But I just can't really remember an instance where we were like, had this guy just doesn't care. And he just doesn't care. And then it actually like next year, he had this electric season at the receiver position. So I'd be actually legitimately curious if there's a good example. But yeah, that's what I think Adams actually is the perfect example right before you got traded to the Jets. That's those first few weeks with the Raiders. I was like, Hey, is Adams washed? He has like the worst average separation score. And you're like, yeah, I watched the film. He just like literally was pounding and just get out of here. He's like, trade me midway. Was pulled himself out of the games. Yeah. I mean, it was pretty bad. Yeah. And let's not forget the injuries. Like it makes sense that AJ Brown would be a guy. You from a dynasty perspective, you want to get out early on, rather be a year early than a year late. And hey, the Rams remember they they failed AJ Brown or they didn't trust the medicals. And that's why they didn't trade for him. But he's he's had a degenerative knee condition in both knees, which he's managed since 2019 that year. He went to the Super Bowl. He was getting his knees drained every single week throughout the playoffs. Wow. And so yeah, I think twice a week, I think twice a week. There you go. So that's that doesn't, you know, really make me too optimistic. All right. Let's transition into some of Scott and I guys are guys we want to talk about. I know Scott even dying to pick Matt's brain on Malik neighbors. So let's just start there. It's pretty hard when to talk about with the injury stuff. But that's why we're talking about him. So Scott, I'll tell you up here. Let's go. Yeah. If if Malik neighbors were 100% fully healthy, like where would he rank from an NFL perspective for you or even from a fantasy perspective? Because I think this guy's special. You know, I'm not I'm not a film expert like you and Brett are, but like he moves like a gazelle. He moves in a way that I don't see. And he just commands, you know, insane target volume. So he's awesome from a fantasy perspective. Sad on the screen is yeah. Over the last seven full games, Malik neighbors over 100 yards per game, 22 fantasy points per game, 11.3 targets per game that easily clears CD lamb. Justin Jefferson all the way down at 8.3 fantasy points per game. That's the O. Wies levels. And so I had a tweet like week two or week three of last season where I said Malik neighbors is better than Justin Jefferson. And I don't like putting out inflammatory stuff like that. I only say that when I believe it and like, I don't know. I just think this is like a really, really special talent. Brett's always like, all right, pump the brakes a little bit. He's not there yet. But this is for sure one of my guys always has been always will be where do you stand? I think he is like knocking on the door of being an elite receiver. Yeah. He's probably just like a couple twitches away from it. But unfortunately, we just didn't get to see it last year. So this is probably the best perception perception stat I have on Malik neighbors is these are the wide receivers that have cleared the 98th percentile in RP history while playing fewer than 30% of their slots. Excuse me, there's naps in the slot from 2014 again to current. It's AJ Brown, Devon, say Adams, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, did it three times, Odo Beckham did it three times. And then Malik neighbors retrunkated 2025 example while by the way, playing in the dumb ass Russell Wilson offense, like, you know, you see again, look at the routes on the screen. The route percentage chart, like 20 almost 26% go routes. It's just nonsense stuff that nobody has their number one receiver run anymore. But it's what you have to do when you have Malik or when you have Russell Wilson. So I think some of neighbors, you know, this and this is where it's like target earning. I kind of whistle at the phrase a little bit, but like, it was like target in 2024 is like, well, they were they were kind of running like a Malik neighbors usage scam in that giants off that year, not really like the offense sucked like while doing that because they didn't have any other threats like that. There's just no way that that would happen if they had another, you know, really quality receiver or two or they really kind of had none because one no Robinson was doing the scam stuff that year too. So I, but that's again, we're splitting hairs here. He would clearly be a top 10 receiver and probably more like I would say six or seven if we're doing league wide rankings, if he's 100% healthy. Yeah, I want to say I view that as a perk. So a league source, I asked about, you know, BTJ versus neighbors. And I'm like, what what explain because they were very high on BTJ. I'm like, what does explains the target per game discrepancy? And they were like, oh, that's because Malik neighbors is an asshole. He just say he would pound and he threw, he would throw temper tantrums if he didn't get his 12 targets per game. And BTJ at LSU was, you know, more reserved and like, you know, it was like, hey, hey, give, give neighbors the targets. It's okay. I'm cool. And then you kind of saw that his rookie season two where it was like, yeah, he, there was one game the giants lost and he only got like five targets and he just totally threw Dable under the bus. And then from that point on, he was getting 12, 14, 15 targets. So yeah, I mean, he has, he has the, he has the mentality that you need as like an elite, you know, receiver, even, even to the point in this is totally after my own heart because I think drops are overrated where he's like, yeah, I'll, I drop one. I'm care for me. Like throw it to me again. I'm like, it doesn't matter. I will also say though about Malik, because I got a chance to interview him and meet him a few years ago. I was expecting who I heard the same stuff. Like, oh, this is going to be a tough one. He was lovely, lovely guy. Just, you know, throw him the football and we're going to keep seeing that lovely guy. Sanity is not something we desire for our our receivers. We don't want sanity. We want. What are the most predictive things in my, my prospect model is the crazy ones. It's like the crazy hot scale. But why receive yes. Deonte Johnson, Malik, neighbor scale. Antonio Brown. I'm on run maybe like the only like normal superstar. I was scared. Are you sure like normal though? I mean, no, he's not. Yeah, normal. Normal. Normal. You're right. You want to be normal. adjacent if you're going to be a tier one receiver. Yeah. Man, I want to derail this whole thing. You made a comment about the term target earner that felt like it resonated deep in my soul because it's my least favorite statement that people in the fantasy community say. So what were you alluding to there with that comment? I got to hear this. So I think that the term targets are earned and like a target earner is again, like a directionally accurate, especially in the positive. Like if a guy's getting a lot of targets, nine times out of 10, it's because they're really, really good. But you know, for the like you don't fall ass backwards into a bunch of targets, especially over a long period of time. You know, by the way, Deonte Johnson was one of these guys for me where people like, well, he just keeps getting tires. Like there's a reason they're throwing the football. It's because he's always open. I mean, he's got other issues in his game. For sure, you know, go forwards when he catches a ball and actually consistently catch it for sure. But there's a reason he's getting all the targets he's always open. I think the problem for me is when it's used in the inverse when a guy's like not a target earner. And I think the best reason, or the best example of this. And I think we want to talk about this player at some point is like Michael Wilson from last year. If you look at like his targets per game when Marvin Harrison is, is there a versus when he's not, it's it's dramatically different. I'm like, nothing materially changes about Michael Wilson. He doesn't like lock in and decide today. I'm going to earn targets like today. Like today, I'm going to do this down the other. The deployment changes. And frankly, like Michael Wilson was always a good quality player. They just weren't they weren't like maximizing him. And it just also the offense is crowded when you talk about a highly productive tight end. And to me, a guy in more of them a little bit of like a Marva Apologist, at least a solid starting X receiver on the field, that Z receiver just does, you're not going to be in the progression. A lot of especially when your quarterback is Kyler Murray. So that's like an anecdotal example. But my problem with the phrase is generally just like in the positive, again, I think it's directly accurate for the most part outside of some like outlier examples. To me, it's when we talk about a guy is not a target earner. I think there are that sometimes that's true. It's any blanket phrase is bad for the most part. Well, sacks are a quarterback stat. Sacks are a quarterback stat, maybe usually, maybe mostly until or not. But not always. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. So speaking of you being a Marva Apologist, we're going to talk Michael Wilson later. But before we do, Mike Evans, let's hit Mike Evans. I think for me, this is one of my favorite picks at ADP. It actually might be my actual favorite. I don't know that you've ever had such a clear path to a potential wide receiver five or top five output in the fourth or fifth round as you do Mike Evans right now. I think this is absurd, especially with the Ricky Purcell news. And maybe that will give Michael Evans a little bump actually. But for now, I think Mike Evans is my favorite click on the board and read Jeff Leagues. Scott. Yeah. I mean, I totally agree. And I've been saying, don't sleep on the old ass wide receivers because last year, Devonte Adams led the league and average separation score. Mike Evans is ranked top three, three years in a row. And yeah, this is the quote I had from Ryan Heath. I asked him about Mike Evans a couple of weeks ago. And I thought he gave me the quote of the off season is like, whatever happens with Evans this year, it's going to feel incredibly obvious in hindsight. Either he scores a zillion touchdowns for Kyle Shanahan or his hamstring falls off the bone like Texas barbecue because he's 33 years old, practicing next to a haunted 5G, Chernobyl, super EMF electrical substation. And by the way, the substation already in mid season form Ricky Purcell, Christian Kirk, it's insane. But yeah, I mean, like, is this not the best wide receiver Kyle Shanahan has had since Julio Jones had 2000 receiving yards like that was one of the old sheet codes was the Kyle Shanahan wide receiver one. And this, this offense has been great despite the Debo can't stay healthy and his fat Ricky Purcell can't stay healthy. Brandon IU, because a head case, Brock Purdy is dealing with injuries, George Kiddles dealing with, and it's just like, if you could just get a healthy Mike Evans, like he's what, he's going to score 20 touchdowns this year and have 1500 yards. The Ryan Heath quote that you had there, and I think you might have tweeted this at me sometime recently or like I saw it, I don't know, but it's 100% accurate. It's what I've been saying to you like here, either Mike Evans says healthy for, we'll even call it 14 games and scores, you know, double digit touchdowns or he plays five games and you know his hamstrings and mess or whatever. And yeah, it's like, that's it. That's the range of outcomes. So how do you want to rank that? How do you want to go about it? Because I think the key variable with with Evans, my only, well, my two pushbacks to what you just said, Scott is one, if your Texas barbecue is falling off the bone that hard, like you overcooked it, you, I, Ryan's got it, Ryan's got to change the analogy to like a pork shank or something where you do want that thing to like fall off the bone. But you also live in Austin. So I'll let you, you do, you be the judge of that Scott. The other thing I would say too is that like, Brandon Ayuk was probably the best receiver that Kyle Shanahan has had in recent memory in the 2023 season when he truly performed like an elite receiver. But if you look at the routes that Brandon Ayuk was running that season, like the route tree matches so well with what Evans does well. These like, yeah, obviously the go routes and stuff like that, but it's a lot of the in breakers. And I think Mike is one of the most underrated technicians in the NFL because people still, still, even to this day, think of him as just like a big bodied risk like freak show, which he is. That's why he's the guy that I like betting. And again, he hasn't had like a significant drop off from like a reception, perception standpoint, whatsoever. And I think he's the perfect blend of what you want in a aging declining receiver. You either, you want them to kind of either be like a true elite technician, like a digs or a keen an Allen or you want them to be a freak show athlete. And like Evans just happens to be both of those things. So I, yeah, I mean, listen, I, I don't know how to rank Evans to, to account for the variance there. But man, just an incredible player who fits perfectly in this role. These guys right now. I think I have a really interesting staff for you, Matt, but I'd like to hear your opinion on. So, yeah, age 32, Mike Evans, second best in ass last year, age 33, Devon to Adams, led the league in ass. So you know, old guys still got it, but looking back throughout fantasy points data history. So since 2021, which was five years ago, you look at the worst yards after the catch per reception seasons. Mike Evans was dead last. Devon to Adams was third worst over a five year sample. And so I think what this is saying is like you are seeing real signs of decline. It's like these guys are, and I know usage plays a role here. But they're not giving you a lot after the catch, but the separation skills are still there. Maybe like Zach Erts is maybe another good example of that. We're like, that's like a heavyweight boxer powers the last thing to go for, you know, heavyweight wide receiver, you know, maybe it's separation abilities, which are more, you know, football IQ and nuance and, you know, route running rather than like raw athleticism. Do you kind of see it that way? I think that he's like you mentioned this role wise is a big part of this, you know, if you're a downfield extra seaver, you're not getting a lot of the same opportunities to have yards after the catch because of where your catches occur. I don't think Mike Evans is really ever been a yards after catch option because of because of that for the most part. But I do think your theory on like the last thing to go is probably because a lot of a lot of separation, a lot of getting open is less physical and more like technique and detail, especially if you're someone that like I mentioned with Mike Evans and Demont Adams is a great example. This is frankly Deandre Hopkins who is also on the list is another player that really became like a really strong technician throughout the course of their career. There's no way that like that doesn't go with age. I'm sure like I'm sure, you know, when when Fontanham's is 50 years old, he'll still be able to like conceptually put together, you know, a release package is just going to be 50 years, he's 50 years old, you know, at that point. So I do think that makes sense in terms of the last thing to go because yeah, your athletic ability and truly something to like do after the catch. There's mental parts of that, but it's also quite physical as well. He's leading now and I think another good example of that last year out targeting bad mcconkey and a per-row basis at each one, 35. He's probably going to do it to Josh Downs this year too. So, sorry. Hey, hey, hey, hey to put that in. The worst part, they're keeping out and thinking so funny because he truly is one of my another one of my favorite receivers, you know, obviously a reception perception guy. But yeah, he's kind of to go back to Mogging. He like Mog, rookie year Roma Dunesay, he Mog, Vlad Mcconkey last year and if he does it three years in a row, to guys I really like and Josh Downs, I'm going to be tough. I'm going to be tough for me to forgive that. All right, let's move on. George Pickens is the next guy we want to talk about and especially from a Pickens vs. Lamb angle, Matt, I've kind of contended that I think lamb is one of the worst picks you can make in the first round of fantasy drafts. And it's not that I, it's not that I have anything against lamb. I just think Pickens is that freaking good. And when they were on the field together last year, Pickens outshined him like quite dramatically actually, especially in fantasy points production. So yeah, but give me your take on Pickens and then obviously your pick on lamb as well. Yeah, I hadn't really thought about lamb just because I'm so excited about this cowboy's offense. I think they could be like a top clear top five unit and the answer to which cowboys do you want this year is just yes. Like you want all of them, even though they're all pretty expensive. I even think Ryan Fowler and always a baller. And he's not going to get a lot of targets, obviously, with everybody healthy. But if those guys get hurt, he would jump into a pretty interesting role. But I do think the, the pro, the, the, the, some, maybe some of this stuff that where lamb gets a little out targeted by Pickens at times last year, one, it is because yeah, Pickens is awesome. He's, he's an incredible player that has gone from a guy that I think clearly did and I'd be curious your thoughts on this bread. Like when he was a rookie, I thought he was just wasn't a great separator and wasn't a really detailed technician. But by year three, and this is, you know, your, your opinion on players a lot of change when, they change, by year three, he is a guy that I thought was, had really taken a step forward, especially against like press man coverage. Like he's a route running was better. His separation skills were better by that final year in Pittsburgh to the point that the eruption last year in Dallas was was the most predictable thing of all time. He was the guy that, like I said, with Waddle last year was the most misprice player in fantasy. I wanted him on all my teams. And he did it last year. Like we were just showing this stand on the screen where he was, yeah, like a sub eight percent slot rate, but average 84 yards per game. You look at the other guys that are lined up in the slot at that low of a rate. It's all just like guys who aren't involved in the offense whatsoever. So it was outlier hero level stuff that Pickens did last year. And I would totally bet on him doing it again. Essentially, there's really no reason why he wouldn't. I do think Lam was pretty messed up from that high ankle sprain even when he got back. Like I talked to him after the season and he basically thought he's like, I thought that injury was going to ruin my entire season. And you know, so I think that that. might be why he was a little limited target wise, but it's a fair point. Like I mean, listen, if Pickens is gonna be that good, it might take away a little bit of lamb as well. Scott, were you in on this? - Yeah, you said this on one of our last shows, you're like, I think Pickens is better than me. And so I like Pickens way more for fantasy. That's what you were telling me. I said, well, pump the brakes a little bit. I will say CDLAM is a little bit more of the fantasy friendly archetype, the more of the PPR cheat code. So it's possible that that's true, but still CDLAM is worth the first round pick, but I was digging into it. And so right now, Matt, CDLAM is being drafted as the ADP wide receiver five. He only has one season, he's finished top seven in fantasy points for game. That one kind of blew my mind. And I've said this on multiple shows, and people get angry when you say that. But like I really think 2023 is doing a lot of the heavy lifting with this ADP. And then you have George Pickens who top three in slot ass last year over the last two years. You have the head coach saying they want him more in the slot, which was really a major benefit to CDLAM. Now they're talking about scheming him open more. And here's what I thought was another credit, yeah, on the screen right now, credit to Brett for saying this is like, yeah, oh my God, George Pickens is unbelievable. He compare his hand to Jamar Chase, the current wide receiver one by ADP. And they're basically tied and everything. George Pickens is really good, and he's been really good for a long time. Yeah, he was great with the Cowboys, but within this sample are fricking Arthur Smith seasons, right? So yeah, clearly the guy is good. Not on this status also, Kiro Ketches, dudenakes unbelievable highlight reel catches at a rate like no other wide receiver comes close to. He's good after the catch. He's a great separator. So this is kind of a spicy take, but that Brett's had, that CDLAM is an awful round one pick and Pickens is a great round two, round three pick. But I can definitely see that being the case. Yeah, I think it's interesting. I mean, my first thought was yeah, he does have that more fantasy friendly role. And I kind of don't buy that they're gonna move pickens around because they kind of set it last year at times. And then again, he played like a historically low slot rate. But the one thing I would say to a CDLAM also played the lowest percentage of his snaps in the slot last year, like 31 or 33 something like that percent, which was pretty low based on previous years. So we'll see, maybe all those guys move around more. I also think, you know, not having, like having Florenoi establishes the three, I think does make a difference for both of these guys 'cause he can actually play real deal receiver. And as opposed to, you know, their third receiver to open last year was like Cammante Turpin or like Jalen Tolbert or something. So I think that that actually does matter for both these guys, maybe actually getting more slot reps. But yeah, look, I have CDLAM and George Pickens in the same tier. So ultimately, like from a fantasy standpoint. So ultimately, if one of those guys outscores the other, that would be completely predictable. Another thing with LAM that no one really talks about is that 2023 season, that magical season, was Mike McCarthy was the play collar. Mike McCarthy kind of invented this power slot role. Go back to 2004 when he was at the Saints. He kind of started moving Joe Horn to the slot. Joe Horn has a career year. He goes to the 49ers the next year, Brandon Lloyd is a breakout season as a guy who primarily was an outside receiver, starts playing the slot. He goes to Green Bay, Invent's Randall Cobb, goes to Dallas and vents CDLAM. CDLAM doesn't have that anymore. Brian Shottonheimer is a different beast. He's a little bit more old school, a little more seven step. I think Pickens might just be better for that offense also. All right, let's round the show out. We got one more guy to talk about. Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals, not even sure what we can call him. I don't know if he's an ex, I don't know if he's a Z. He played some ex in Marvin Harrison's absence last year and was dominant doing it better than Marvin Harrison Jr. himself. But I do want to take the angle of, let's go Michael Wilson versus Marvin Harrison Jr. Because the pedigrees couldn't be more different. Harrison Jr. Top 10 pick, Michael Wilson, a third-run pick. But Wilson has just been more productive when given the opportunity. Matt, where are you at on Wilson? Oh God. I was just saying on my show yesterday that I actually need to stop thinking about and talking about the 2026 Cardinals because my algorithm on Twitter now knows I'm obsessed with these two receivers. So when it's not feeding me like Cyrus Allen propaganda, it's feeding me like pure uncut, just Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, just I don't know, hope him, copium from like Arizona beat writers. And I think the one thing to talk about with both these guys 'cause this is another one where I don't want to like one and hate the other 'cause I actually really like both players. I thought Michael Wilson was really underutilized in Arizona prior to Marvin Harrison Jr. Even like the funny thing is, and Michael Wilson's right up after his rookie year in reception perception, the very last paragraph is the fact that Michael Wilson showed that he can be a really strong Z receiver, but also and I'm paraphrasing myself here, which is always a good thing to do. The fact that he showed he could be like a quality Z receiver, but play X receiver means that they won't just have to run out the prize rookie at X receiver every single snap that there could be some versatility in their alignment. And then the coaching staff in Arizona proceeded to do the exact opposite of that. It was basically like, Marvin's always the X, Mike's always the Z. And that just made no sense to me 'cause we were showing Michael Wilson's reception perception comps on the screen a bit ago. They're all like classic X type profiles, like T Higgins, Brian Thompson Jr.'s rookie season, Alan Robinson early career, like Terry McIlor and Frick and AJ Green, like these are the type of players from a role and effectiveness perspective. I think he can have like some level of output like that. But it does need to, like the roles need to be mixed up a little 'cause I think Harrison also is like really quality technician. He's not the like freak athlete that you might think obviously is the fourth overall pick. I'm generally a Marv Apologist. I think he wins over the field. Well, I think he just was never a fit with Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray was never fit for the old offense. But with these two guys this year, I just think LaFlora coming over here from LA, being able to, the key is that nobody will be in one position every single time. Like there's gonna be so much motion here. It was gonna be a lot of like condensed formations. It's just gonna look very different than the old offense. So I have no idea what the quarterback play looks like. I think the team probably is gonna be bad. But I am admittedly very cardinals curious, mostly just because I like both of these two receivers. - So this is a topic that Ryan Heath and I have spent a lot of time debating this off season. And Ryan Heath's argument, which is a very good argument. I just don't, I just happen to not side with it is that if the situation was reversed, if Michael Wilson suffered that injury and went down, Marvin Harrison Jr. would have went nuclear and we'd be drafting him in round three. Because it was Michael Wilson benefiting not just from the lesser target competition from the injury to Marvin Harrison Jr. but it was also during the stretch, they played a ton of heavy personnel, which is even a better setup for wide receivers to get the ball and score fantasy points. And so it was really just like, you know, bad luck. And so now we're getting this extreme discount on Marvin Harrison Jr. I think that's like a very persuasive argument, but it's not the one I side with. What I side with is, Martin Harrison Jr. has two 100 yard games in his career. Michael Wilson turned into Jerry freaking rice without him last year. Over the last 11 weeks of the 2025 season, Michael Wilson ranked third in yards for game. He was behind only Pukin, Akua, JSN. He goes in round nine, everyone else goes in round one. What are you hearing this off season? You're hearing, hey, you know, like, it's not that I struggled with Kyler. It's really just, hey, the offense runs through the X and Marvin was in the X and then he goes down, then he put me in the X and I do well in it. And it's like, yeah, yeah, you see that. Marvin had a great target share. He just didn't put up any fantasy points. And then you put Michael Wilson in it and he goes absolutely nuclear transforms into Jerry rice and you're hearing now, it's like, oh, I'm more the Puka roll, which is the more valuable roll. And it's great for his skill set and it leads to PPRs and YAC. And to me, it's just like, and he's by the way, going rounds behind Marvin Harrison Jr. And yeah, again, it's just, I've always had that stuck in the back of my heart in my mind. It's like, his name was Marvin Jefferson. Would he have been a tough guy to pick? Is this real? And so it's like, yeah, it's like, was he a nepotism draft picked to some degree? I don't know, but it's a new regime now. And I think they're gonna lean more towards a meritocracy and so far we've seen a lot more merit. Marvin Harrison Jr. 200 yard games in his career. He has two good games in his career. And Michael Wilson had, in the second half last year, what, two or three times as many good games. So again, I get Brian's argument. I think it's persuasive, but it's just not the way I lean. I lean towards Michael Wilson going rounds later as the better value. What do you think, Brett? - Well, it's really tough, 'cause there's a lot of moving parts here. It requires a multivariate analysis. But I think the glow up for Wilson from the time he stepped into that X-roll. So pretty much week 10, he started playing 50% or more of his snaps at the X spot. His yards per out run jumped a third in the NFL. His separation score jumped to six in the NFL. Like a truly unbelievable glove. He was more productive in that role than Marvin Harrison Jr. was. That's undeniable fact. But the problem is, is they did it with different quarterbacks. It's like really hard to extrapolate what's the truth there. 'Cause we know Kyler Murray struggles, and he struggles to throw the ball in the middle of the field. He struggles to attack the intermediate mid of the field. And in the too high era we live in, that's those dig routes, those post routes, that's where you're gonna live for an explosive offense. And that's where Michael Wilson just dominated. So like, I think he had a huge benefit of getting to play with Jacobi Berset in a bunch of shootouts where the defense was letting up 40 points a game. And so it's like, I don't know what's real and what's not. It is a really hard one for me. I want to bet on the talent of Marvin Harrison Jr. because this is a guy I thought was the best player in his draft class, like incredible talent. And so, but you can't deny the production splits. This is truly one of the hardest juxtapositions for me. I really don't know what to make of the difference in info here. Yeah, I agree with you. It is really hard. And I don't know that I'll be surprised one way or another, like how this ultimately plays out. I think that that's kind of because I, and again, this comes back to the fact that I like both players. Like I do think that Michael Wilson is good. Like I don't think Michael Wilson was some nonsense fluke or something like that. But yeah, your point about the just pass volume truly can't be understated here. Like it was ultimately a complete scam what they did in the back half of the year with Michael. And that's up to pick away from Michael Wilson. But it was a fantasy football scam. They dropped back 457 times. Did the Arizona Cardinals last year from week nine on? That was over 50 more times than the next place team, which was Detroit at 403. So I mean, it was just, it was a complete scam in that regard. It did to be really. Honestly, like, Tramick Bryant was number one in Rouse Run last year. Michael Wilson was second. I do think that if we reverse the simulations and Marvin Harrison Jr. was not just without Michael Wilson, but also with Jacobi Berset, I think that would be a big deal. Because Kyler is like he's got. He's not my and I had to talk Nate Tyson out of this because he was like Cardinals curious under the old staff. And now I've kind of taken on the role of being Cardinals curious in this staff. I pretty much told him like week two of last season, like buddy, let it go with the Cardinals. Like all three of these guys seem to get away from each other. Like Marv, Kyler and Drew, Petsing just, they're all fine in their own right. They just don't fit each other. They all have to get away from each other. And like then we can judge them on the merits after the fact. And I think I finally broke him from the Cardinals addiction. He still was on the defense, but you know, that's fine. Nate and I can litigate that later. But regardless, I think that now that these three guys are away from each other, I would like to kind of give them all a little bit of a blank slate even though we know the plus and minuses of each. Because yeah, I'm with you Brett. Like I thought Marvin Harrison Jr. was like one of the best prospects I've ever seen at receiver. I don't think it was name based. And I think that he's been, I think you can hold two thoughts in your head about Marvin Harrison Jr. in that he has been disappointing relative to expectations. And even if the expectations were really lofty, I think he's been disappointing. But he's also not been nearly as bad as like the Twitter doomscape wants to paint as well. I think you can hold two thoughts in your head on that. That's been my argument most of the time. Matt, this has been awesome. We kept you a little longer. We said we would. I really appreciate your time here. Hopefully the viewers enjoyed it as well. Thank you so much for doing this. Tell the people where they can find your work. Now this has been great. Next time we'll definitely, we'll put the blood feud back on the air about reception, perception, and fantasy points. We actually all hate each other. But this is great. It was super fun. I really appreciate it. It was great to discuss this with both you guys. And in terms of my work, the Yahoo Fantasy forecast goes back to daily five days a week next week. So that'll be fun and receptionperception.com. You can find all of these profiles, the player comparison tool, putting up new profiles every week as we lead up to week one in addition to everything else that's on the site. So I think if you like this discussion, you will definitely like receptionperception.com. Awesome. And hey, since Ryan Heath caught like a million references on this show, anatomy of the league winner did just drop today. It's one of the best articles you can read in the off season. If you want to win your fantasy leagues, this is the article to do it. Please go to fantasypoints.com and check out the anatomy of the league winner by Ryan Heath. That's going to do it for us today, everyone. Thank you so much for tuning in. We are out. [MUSIC PLAYING]