Rates Back On The Rise… And Used Car Market Shifting Into Reverse 10/7/26

Life in the Nasdaq Market is in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. A pop, and then a drop. Ten-year yields hitting new 24-year highs before the latest bond auction brought rates lower. All the details on the moves and the impact on your money, and a shift in the used car lot. What is behind the value drop in pre-owned vehicles and how a change in driver preferences is impacting the auto market, plus lowly pops and a potential new use for its weight loss drugs, SpaceX shares come down to earth after a rocket ride higher, counting down to delta earnings with the options market is pricing in ahead of Friday's earnings report, and how you should play the airline names right now. I'm Melissa Lee. Come to your live from studio, be at the Nasdaq on the desk tonight, Kim Seymour, Karen Feynman, Steve Grasso, and Mike Co. We start off with the big swings and rates today. The ten-year treasury yield jumping as high as 5.36% early in the session. That was a first 24-year high, but the benchmark rate backing off the lows, those levels following a stronger than expected bond auction, the U.S. treasury selling $39 billion of ten-year notes with higher than average bidding from non-dealers, which include central banks. Also today, minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, signaling another rate hike to come before your end. Steve Leesman is here with all the details covering the auction for the first time since Rick left. We're doing the best we can, and he would want us to do that by the way. But what I'm here to talk about first, though, is the minutes where the Fed officials you know, the big memory they unanimously get the hike rates back in September. Most degree, do we appropriate to hike again this year according to the minutes of the meeting. Many said it would make sense to hike on risk management grounds. That has provided insurance against this persistently high inflation we've had from supply shocks in a strong demand. The minutes also said several members saw the policy rate as only mildly restrictive or not restrictive, echoing the words of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsson. There was insufficient progress on inflation, risk to inflation worth to the upside, and the labor market, not a problem, it's close to full employment. The concern was that higher prices could eventually seep down into what they call inflation expectations and drive up wages, but since the meeting, several key federal officials they've signal, hey, if a hike has come in this year, it's unlikely to happen in October. With Vice Chair Phil Jefferson and your Fed President John Williams, they said the Fed could take a little more time before deciding the next move, and that's exactly how markets have it priced in, 17% chance of a hike in October, but an 82% probability of one in December, but hold on, the two-year yield at 476, 90 basis points over the Fed funds rate. That suggests something has to give here either the market record sales where the Fed is, or the Fed reconciles where the bond market is. For now higher bond yields, they do some of the work for the Fed. They restrained some demand, they restrained some investment at the margin, but if inflation doesn't ease, the Fed's going to have more work to do mislead. They will. What's your bet on what resolves, how it resolves? I think there's at least one more hike left in the Fed, and I am just, I'm amazed, there's just contradiction out there. If you look at what they call the five-year, five-year forward, an indication of inflation expectations inside the bond, not much going on there. So everybody says this is real yields, but then riddle me, why does the bond yield keep rising with oil prices? That doesn't make sense because that's sort of an inflationary trade. Now maybe some people out there, maybe it's just become this automatic attached at the hip kind of thing, but that's been a curious thing. If it's not inflation, why is it oil? So I'll take out the break evens. Go to the tips market. Tips market is all real yield. No inflation. Well, the tips is the break evens, right? Yeah, break evens is the five-year, five-year forward with tips where it's real nominal. It's different calculation, right? All right. Different calculations. So the ten-year break evens are what you're talking about. But they did move in 2021, 2022. So I always find that they move when there's something to move on. So my question is, if it's not inflation, is it growth or is it issuance? Which one do you lean on? I'm just going to say yes. I would say yes, and I think I'm going to be right. I mean, I think it's issuance, you've got a lot of issuance coming from AI, and they seem, look, if you graduate the AI boom, right? There's places at the top of this thing that could care less if it's a quarter point. There's things at the bottom that matter. There's guys carrying land that are trying to take that land and make it ready for data centers. They care a lot about that quarter point right there. But the people at the top, I'm going to say maybe the core weaves or the anthropics, I don't think they care about the quarter point, that's my indication, that's a big part of it. Really glad to have you here in person, I mean, twice in two weeks. I know. It had so much fun last time. So two quick questions. One quick one. It was such passion. One quick one. That was passion for me, Jim. In Rick's honor, what would grade would you give this? And then what about hikes for next year? What do you see? What's the market for? So Rick and I had a very funny dynamic when it came to his grade. He would judge it by the metrics. I judge it by the fact that we were selling $40 trillion worth of debt and a trillion of debt. Today was 30. Oh, big failure. That's a lot more general. We're holding it. And it's more than 100%. If the auction happened, I gave it an A. That was my dynamic. So I think Rick would give this sort of a B+ and he gave the three year this morning. I think he'd give a B+ or an A, the shorter term was doing better than the longer end. And then we had, you know, the treasury came out, they're going to do another repurchase. It feels a little bit like, guys, you have that 10 year yield chart. It feels like we keep hitting this 434, 435 range and then we kind of retreat from it. It feels like it's a somewhat involved kind of place. What's up? Well, do you think that is related to buybacks and activity in the bond market? I think this is the market. Buybacks could help. But what I learned from Rick over the years, believe it or not, I always listen to what he said. Didn't always agree with it. And the market established these ranges, right? And so the question for the bond traders becomes, where's the new bottom? Where's the top? We're definitely in a new range and that new range, you know, we exploded up from 460 very quickly. And so we're not clear where the top is. You know, you can hear words like 550, you know, where's the point where, you know, the scrooge would come in and start and say, you know what, I want a 10 year here. Remember, there's an interesting question on the table and we've talked about this. How much do you believe in Kevin Worsh? If you believe in Kevin, I'm talking to the camera right here, but folks meet me on camera. Oh, nice. Right? It's dramatic. If you believe in Kevin and his 2% and he's going to do it and he's going to make it, take your five year, subtract two for it from it and that's your real yield for the next 10 years, right? You pocket that money without it being eroded by a price. Now, if you don't believe Kevin, if you think three is the new two, right, then you're only going to pocket two, which is not too bad. But there's no reason to go way out the curve to get to enjoy that real yield. So I don't know Steve Grassow, if you go to bed at night and wake up in the morning and say, what's my real yield? But that's the way economists and sort of finance geeks like to talk about it. How does, and you may say, I mean, does France factor into the dollar index is hitting highs we haven't seen since what may of 2025 or so with the euro, the biggest component that is the laggard here, pushing the dollar higher. So that's sort of a, it seems like with Bank of Japan sort of who knows when they're going to hike and what's going on in France, it seems like this is not a foregone conclusion, but dollar strength should, in theory, continue and therefore yield strength on the 10 years should continue as well. Right. So what you're talking about is, I think it's the ugliest dog in the kennel thing. What is the metaphor that they use? That's the safest metaphor in the kennel. Well, you've got to be careful on this one. There's another place you've got to go on. Right. Right. I don't want to go there. You did. But here's what happened. In case people don't remember, there was a blow out in French yields, there's a lot of concern that France has been barring. And there's a lot of talk that look at France and that's the future of America if we keep barring the way we're barring with the politics that we have, of course, they're way above where we are. But in any event, that blew out and people ran to the safety. That's right. You can cherish it, remember, by the way, Tim, you remember this, remember when they downgraded the U.S. Treasury? Sure. What do people do? They bought U.S. Treasury. They bought U.S. Treasury. They bought U.S. Treasury. So we're still okay in this regard. We're still selling bonds. People are still buying. We're still giving the 10-year, as we talked about, a decent grade. It was a good auction. People are still buying them. I do think at the edges, some people look, if you're a pension fund, maybe not Steve Grasso, but you're on a pension fund. And you've got these retirees and you have more and more of them every day. And you say I have X to meet that obligation over the next 20 years, and the pensioners are living longer, right? And you can lock this rate in. It's not terrible. And you don't want to turn around like a year from now and say, "There it was for me to have." Now, I'm not saying go buy these 10 years because there may be more to go. And I don't know, but I'm just saying that's the math I'm the real yield. But if you're a life insurance company and you're a Japanese life insurance company, the yields in Japan are a lot more interesting than they've ever been. And they who are financing much of our deficit, the big issue is that the real money that's chasing higher yields is not here. In other words, us, the French, the UK, the Germans all need to finance our budgets externally. Japan typically is a big benefactor of all of these. So to me, the story is as much about concern when Japanese life insurance and real money decides to come back home to Japan and say, "I will lock in on 320 in a 10-year JGB." That is the risk. That's the risk for the Treasury. I think that's Scott Bessens, a thing that keeps him up at night. And I do think that in the kennels of global sovereign debt, so I want to get back to the map for another, a kennel that contains. sovereign debt credit around the world. There's no question we are a beautiful dog. I'm going to leave it like that. And I think on a day when, you know, once again, we talked about this last week when Europe went home is when the bond market started rallying. And you can't tell me that people aren't going going after. Bond vigilantes are going after France and they're going after Italy and that's going to continue until we get some clarity even on I think I'm global credit, frankly. I would just caution this, I think you're 100% right to him, but people have made a lot of money betting against sovereign default. France is really rich. The United States is really rich. Ultimately what we're talking about is a political problem, not a financial problem. People forget, let's talk about the US. If you make a hundred thousand dollars and you have a hundred thousand dollar mortgage, is that the worst thing in the world? Does that seem totally out of balance? That's sort of what the US is, right? debt to GDP is a hundred percent. But if you're a bank, what are you looking at? We look at the credit. You look at the coverage ratio. What do they have in assets? We have four, five, six to one in terms of our coverage ratio. We have plenty of money. Question is how we're going to use it to pay off our debt and also get in front of this issue of what's happening, which is the huge bill coming to the United States when it comes to people retiring and the health care bills. But we can get downgraded. And the bigger issue is that market participants and whether you're a CTA or a quant or a really aggressive person who is now short-terration, you can't be getting destroyed in the bond market. And often the biggest players and the most levered players in the world are investing in treasuries and in places where small moves and yields can really be exaggerated in terms of their impact. I just think that people have been taken out and people are going to continue to be well, people will have been taken out by this move. And I think that's the bigger issue. It's not a question whether the US is going to default or France is going to default. But the fact of the matter is people are very off-sides in these trades. And in the short term, I don't know that any of this has to change. In fact, it feels like it needs to go higher. Tim, you're right. And something we've seen in the data is that more and more hedge funds are funding and involved with the treasury market. And they're obviously, if they're a hedge fund, they're going to be leveraged into it. What do they own now? Like 7% of treasury is something I thought it was higher than that, but I'm not sure. I don't want to quote a number, but it's just a bigger number than it was before. So we talk about pension funds and life insurance companies. Those are the boring ones who were buying and selling, but the hedge funds are the ones that are in and out. And you do see this thing. I don't think we have it in the back at the test of the back, the move index, which is the volatile in the box. We have the move index. Come on, Steve. Anybody? Come up. That's the crack stat. I don't want to, I don't want to put them on a spot, but oh boy. Look at that. Folks, if you're on the radio, they just put up the move index. Yes. And there it is. And you can see that bump right there. And that bump, if I'm not mistaken, is that a two-year chart? If you have a two-year chart or actually a one-year chart, it goes back. The last time we had this kind of volatility was around liberation day with those tariffs. And that's the kind of volatility we're having now in the bond market. And that's reflective of exactly what Tim Seymour was talking about. Well, by the way, the pigs was not coined by me about 14 years ago when we started talking about European stuff. But I'm going to coin pigs. Well, pigs, it's the figs now. We can't pick on Ireland either because right now they haven't been brought into the mix. But yeah, I mean, it was Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and it'll, excuse me, but forget about the Italian. They are very important eye in the fig word because they're going after Italy right now, too. But people want to sell this story that frances the new Greece. Frances not the new Greece, okay? There's more money in France is the new Greece. There's more, there's more students on the street in France, of course, but Steve, great to see you. My pleasure, thank you for stopping by. Pleasure. Steve Liesman. So it was interesting to see how this all translating today's action. We did see still sort of that defensive bid there. We saw big kept farmer in favor. We saw tech continue to be in favor. I mean, this does this feel like this is the way it's going to be? I think interest rate sensitives are going to continue to make a move lower and it's interesting also, you know, the caterpillars, the folks that were the industrial names that were part of the AI build out are really in some trouble here on a relative basis. It's still been an extraordinary run for caterpillar, but it's also just interesting to me. This wasn't a big bad update in oil. In fact, you can make an argue that oil looks really exhausted on the charts, at least over the last few days. It's been kind of calm. So treasuries haven't been reacting and have been correlated the way they were to move in oil prices. And that's a little scary because that's kind of where we are. But I do think industrial staples, consumer discretionary will continue to underperform in a higher rate environment. Yeah, you agree, Mike? Yeah, I mean, well, as Tim, I think, was just eluding. I mean, one of the areas that certainly got hit today, something like XHB, the homebuilders, anything like that that's going to be rate sensitive. You know, also a lot of the leading trades that we have seen, especially from, you know, the mega cap companies, you know, many of these are generating massive amounts of cash flow. Now, a lot of that is getting poured into CapEx. So you don't see that going all the way to free cash flow. But that is discretionary to a degree. They don't depend on borrowed money. And so they're in a fairly good spot when you think about where rates are. And I would actually add one other thing, which is that, you know, if you go back to when rates were this high in the past, we had a very healthy economy back then. This was tail end of, you know, perhaps the Clinton administration. And, you know, a healthy economy can sustain this. And right now the job is picture is fairly good. So on that, you know, score, I think we're all right. And if you take a look, equity traders often don't look at fixed income markets. So for those of you who spend most of your time looking at stocks and ETFs, TLT is a proxy for the long bond. And if you take a look at what the options activity in TLT was today, it was of course a little bit lower because bonds go in the opposite direction to rates. But what you'll notice is that actually the options flows were significantly less bearish today than they have been. We saw put volume, which was already much less than call volume fall off even further today. It was probably about 30% below the 20 day average, which suggests that at least those who are using TLT to play bonds are beginning to think that maybe there's an end in sight to the sharp rays in the tenure. Well, one of Wall Street's biggest bond bears says now might be time to buy bonds. He turned bullish couple of weeks ago. Let's bring in Jim Bianco, president of Bianco research. Jim, great to have you with us. Where in the curving, can you walk us through the risk reward? Yeah, I think that finally the bond market, say, from the five year to the 30 year, all at a 5% yield or higher. First time in 20 years that that's happened is now reflective of the overall state of the economy. And that is a three-ish inflation rate and a two-ish real growth rate. So a nominal rate of about five. So if you have a 5% economy and you have 5% interest rates, that's fair value. And that's why after six years, I finally said, okay, now it's the time to start moving back into the bond market. So where in the curve, anywhere from five years on out, I think is really from a fundamental standpoint is the appropriate levels for this, for the interest rates. And that's why there are some value. No longer the bond market expensive. It's now kind of a value to it again. Jim, it's Karen. Thanks for being on. How do you factor the tremendous amount of enterprise debt coming on to market? How much does it move the needle there? It moves into the margin, especially if we're talking about hyperscaler debt and everything else. It definitely does. But I think that that's largely been factored in. But if you back up and you look at the last 10 years, the last 15 years, corporate debt as a percent of GDP has been falling. Corporations have been deleverging for a long time. So now we're getting one sector, maybe the hyperscalers. Maybe if you want to widen it out called the AI trade in general, is releverging itself. Okay, I think the market can handle that. Yeah, there's higher let there's definitely higher yields for those bonds. And they've got higher expected returns. So they can handle that as well too. So it's not a case that we're starting to see the whole market seizing on it. If I could say real quick, 2010 to 2020, we had negative interest rates. We had zero. We had money printing. That was the most abnormal period, maybe in financial history. Now what we see is pretty normal. And we're just so anchored to that period of 10 years ago and thinking, oh, yeah, we're going to go back to zero. We're going to go back to money printing or something like that. No, I think that error is over. And now what we're looking at is normal interest rates. It's just been so long. We think that their high rates and we wonder what's wrong with the bond market. The answer might be there's nothing wrong with the bond market. This is where everything is supposed to be. Hey, Jim Tim, I think it's healthy as well on a relative basis to again, history. But this kind of a move and think of all the corporations or just, I would just say companies and it's not the typically large corporations who have been deleverging. But what's the credit impact here? Because if you've been living in a world where rates were artificially kept down and we've now taken the beach ball off of the pressure and water or the pool or whatever that is, it seems to me. And we have a credit cycle coming faster than we thought based upon a move that was faster than we thought. Yeah, I think you're going to start seeing your credit cycle and you're seeing it in the lowest rated credits in the triple C credits. There are very small part of the market that the triple C credits are moving higher. The double the single B credits, which should be the next best category of credits are not moving at all. But the reason that the triple C's are moving is because those companies refinanced at much lower rates. Now that they're looking at the possibility of refinancing at higher rates, the market's getting worried about their ability to do it. These are idiosyncratic companies. We're talking about gaming companies, we're talking about over leverage cable companies. We're talking about lottery companies that run lottery, including the lottery of France. These are the companies that are in most trouble that are pushing those credits higher. But it's largely because the market is worried they can't refinance. Now it's not in single b's, not in double b's, it's not in investment grade. But that's always the risk. If these rates keep going up, yields keep moving up, and you get to that point where companies are saying, "Look, we delivered, we're fine, yes, but you refinanced five years ago at much lower rates, and you refinanced with a five or seven year bond, and it's coming to do in two years, and you're looking at much higher rates. That could be a problem. I don't perceive that as a problem right now, but it's definitely on my radar watch list of things that could potentially be problematic." Jim, good to see you, thank you. Thank you. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research, are you finding a space for bonds in your portfolio? No, I'm finding a reason why bonds are not hurting equities, and for now, earnings have trumped the discount rate for large cap tech. So when you're looking at it, there's not any real competition, so both of them can move up at the same time. But this auction caught a lot of people off guard, so I think you could see a pullback in rates from here going forward. Meantime of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hitting 7.63 percent today, this according to mortgage news daily, that is the highest level since November of 2023 when the rate was at 7.69 percent. The move putting pressure on home builder stocks, the XHB hitting its lowest since May with Pulti KB home and toll, among the names seeing some outsized losses here. Mike, you brought up the home builders, this group has obviously been under some pressure here, but is there some place else? I mean, a home depot will lose, there is a storm brewing in the Gulf that could hit by Friday or so, which might help short-term home depot in life. That can help a little bit, but it's not going to help that much, right? Because number one, that's going to be localized, and as I know that Steve and Tim have repeatedly discussed, you know, where home depot is concerned, a big percentage of their sales are actually coming from professional contractors for lows, which we just sell on the screen, it's a somewhat smaller percentage. Consequently, when you see the home building slowing down, and also existing home sales, fuels a lot of sales in these places as well, people sell one house, they buy another one, they make improvements, and they go into these stores. And so these higher rates are really, not exactly sure at what point we get to see this alleviated, you know, we really need to see a pretty steep correction in home prices in some areas we have seen that, but they haven't come down to the level where a house that was 650,000 is now affordable at 450,000, and the prices haven't reflected that yet, and until we do see that, then it's going to be a struggle for many of these. How is Zillow doing, Karen? Great. No. I was like, "Why am I looking at the home chart?" It's not great. I mean, you know, we talked about this a lot, I mean, it's clearly tied to the number of transactions that's important for them, and, you know, they need volume, right? Because they need volume, and the margin on that volume will be great, but they're below where they need to be. We have the cyber scoop, what we are hearing from the CEO, Palo Alto Networks, is rising AI safety concerns, put the cybersecurity trade in focus, plus, that from the stratosphere shares a SpaceX losing lift after the recent blast off, where a trader seems store for that one ahead. Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. David Favre, sat down with Palo Alto, CEO, Nikesh Aurora, and White House AIs are Jake Layton during closing bell to discuss AI safety. The challenge is to make sure that we put the right safety and security harnesses around this technology. And I think that is immensely doable. It's as much of an engineering problem as it is to build these amazing frontier models. I think we're not going to win the Super Intelligence Race if we don't focus on making sure this stuff gets deployed at speed, but with the right safety and security guard. Palo Alto shares have climbed over 20% in the last month, the security concerns grow over AI. Shares hit a record just yesterday. The entire space has been on fire, not just Palo Alto Networks. So are you a buyer? Are you a buyer? Yeah, I mean, the more agents you have, the more cyber security that you need, and you have to look at the ones that get paid as a toll booth collector. So I'm in Cloud Flair, I've been in Cloud Flair for about a month now, but all of these just depends on where they're guarding. Are they guarding at the data center level? Or are they guarding at the edge closer to your location? But all of them should, in theory, increase in value with the more agentic forces that we see. And you want to get the ones that are actually collecting the toll. Cloud Flair has 20% of the global internet. That's their share. So that's why I picked that one. It's not one that you talk about a lot, you talk about Palo Alto, a lot, they should all gain, but I think Cloud Flair should catch up. I'm long CrowdStrike, I believe in the space, and even when software was under a lot of pressure, the security names did fantastic. So I believe in the trade, I believe in the demand. What's different about this than with semis, and certainly with memory names, is that the valuations aren't cheap. The valuations are really expensive. The CrowdStrike's 125 times forward, Palo Alto's probably 95 times forward. That's something that is a lot harder to get comfortable with, even in a world where we know that they are in the poll position. So I'm cautious. But writing calls against these long positions, I realize you could get called away, but you're well paid to do it. That was a good job by the crack staff there, getting those PE multiples up. Yeah. And the movement, that's by the way, the move index in the end. That was awesome. I mean, it's just what Tim said, it's to me the whole issue. The valuation on sort of the same thing of the growth and the need for cybersecurity from what? From data-centric AI and genetic all of that. If you can own Nvidia, you're going to go there, 17, 18, whatever it is. Well, it's going out two years, this year, 25 on this year. So next year's maybe, I don't know, 19 times versus those numbers. You need the same underlying thing to happen. Yeah, but Palo Alto is up 120% for the year and Nvidia's up 27%. So that's what you're paying that huge multiple is for the huge growth, but you got to time it. You got to time it perfectly. And for a buy and hold, it's probably not the best thing for a value investor. Right. There's a lot more fast money to come, here's what's coming up next. From lift off to pull back, why SpaceX shares are coming back down to earth and whether the recent rocket ship ride can resume, plus shifting into reverse. How prices and consumer preferences have the used car market and consumers changing lanes and how it could affect your next pair of wheels. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. SpaceX shares pulling back today after news that the company is looking to issue $40 billion in new debt to fund expansion of its AI and satellite infrastructure. The stock, though, has gained 11% since the start of the month. By the way, Oracle and Broadcom also reportedly seeking blockbuster debt deals for AI chips as well. Mike, what do you see in SpaceX? Well, SpaceX, I mean, from the option side, it's kind of interesting because the implied volatility, although it ticked up just a little bit today and you would expect that. So if you look at a business and it adds more debt, what's going to happen to the equity, it gets a little bit more levered. But here we're talking about $40 billion and while that sounds like a lot or a $2.2 trillion company, it isn't really. So, you know, 50% implied volatility is there a little bit of an uptick in concern on this kind of thing? Maybe if I look at debt issuance and you had a couple names up there before, the one that gets me a little bit more nervous would be Oracle over this one. So if you look at a revenue last quarter, nearly doubled. And the debt is to buy free cash flow assets. So Anthropic and Google are already paying them. So on their debt, they've got 26 billion already coming in from Anthropic and Google. So I think if they didn't have a customer and they're just doing it for the hell of it, it would be worrisome. But I think the market will buy this one back. I think the market is just paying attention to the fundamentals of SpaceX now. And I realize that the valuation is really difficult. But it's been quite a couple weeks for them in terms of what they've been doing, starship flight 14. A number of booster recovers I think was four. So they've been out there, they've been executing, they've been doing the things that people who really want to own the stock for the future have to be elated about. In fact, I think it's actually incredibly impressive. So I understand this has been a story about technicals, it's been about overhang, it's been about where you start to see the unwind of positions that have been locked up and added to indices, etc. 40 billion for this company at this market cap. Not that word. Are you bullish SpaceX? I'm long. You're long. Okay. I'm long. You're long. Well, I'm from cursor. We snuck up on you. Oh, okay. From cursor. Yeah. Which was taken over by SpaceX. So. Um, sticking around for a while. Wow. Okay. Sneaky. Sneaky. Totally sneaky. Surprise me. All right. Coming up, auto price is shifting into reverse. How declining values could impact your next car purchase. And what the weather has to do with supply and demand, details and fast money returns. Missed a moment of fast, catches any time on the go. Follow the fast money podcast. We're back. And after this, welcome back to fast money. Socks retreating as rates ticked higher. The Dow falling 340 points, snapping a four day winning streak, S&P Nasak Nasak 100, which all hit records yesterday, each dropping about a quarter percent. And some after hours action, Levi Strauss hiking, it's profit guidance for the year due to tariff refunds, but lowered expectations for revenue growth. The stock is down about 2 percent right now. Jim Kramer is speaking exclusively with CEO Michelle Goss that is tonight on mad money. Meantime, use car stocks, Carvana, CarMax and Auto Nation all down double digits over the past month. Could recent shifts and consumer preferences and even weather trends change the outlook for the group. CNBC's Phil LaBose got more on this. Hey, Phil. Hey, Melissa. What we're looking at today is the Cox used, used vehicle index. It's called the manheim monthly used vehicle index and it looks at what the price is being paid right now by dealers on the wholesale market before they turn around and sell it to you and I on the retail market. And what they're showing is the first decline year over a year since early last year. It wasn't much of a decline, just 0.6 percent down 1.1 percent compared to August, the biggest decline, pickups and SUVs. Now for some context here, the average used vehicle price right now. If you went out to a dealership, it's going to be a little over $27,000. Not dramatically different than in the past. So the market is not cratering when it comes to used vehicles. But as one person said to me today, it is healthy but not robust. So take a look at shares of CarMax and we'll tell you what part of the market is strong right now. EVs. And that's not a surprise. What about this for sometimes EVs and small cars? Those prices on the used market, they're actually moving up up 4.3 percent in September, year over year for electric vehicles. And as you take a look at Carvana, the increase in prices for small cars, similar, up 4.3 percent. Bottom line is this Melissa. It is a relatively healthy market, but not a robust market where people are moving into new vehicles or moving into used vehicles at a big clip. And one factor might be the fact that this year, this September was the first one since 1994 when we did not have a hurricane in the Atlantic hit the east coast of the United States. And I know that sounds strange, but that usually juices the market a little bit in terms of flooded vehicles, people needing to replace their vehicles, etc. So does this have any impact or is this a precursor in any way to what's going to happen with a new car prices? Well new car market actually drives what happens with the used market. And what we've seen with the new market is that the demand holds around 16.2 million vehicles in terms of an overall sales rate. That's actually a little better for this year than many people were expecting. The other thing to keep in mind, the auto manufacturers are being very judicious about their manufacturing and their supply. They're not adding more supply than what is looking what the market is looking for right now. So as a result, you have fewer people who are saying, okay, well, I'm going to trade in a vehicle. It's not a great market, it's just an okay market right now is the way one dealer summarized it for me. All right. Phil, thank you. Phil Lebo. All right. What do you want to trade here, Mike, GM, Ford, auto nation? Well, I don't think I'm real crazy about the dealers in here. I'm not real crazy about Carvana either. I mean, I think of Carvana as kind of a finance company, right? And one of the things that Phil didn't happen to mention is that the used car finance rate is, I think the average is around 11% give or take. Obviously, that's not for the prime borrowers, but what ends up happening is that much like the housing market, a lot of people who shop for these things, shop on payments, not on price. If you shop on payments and you have higher rates, that is going to continue to put pressure on it. And I think that's what's going on here. And I don't see that alleviating anytime soon. I mean, 11%, that's crazy. You know, it's funny. When you go to a new car, so it's a flipped on its head market. So Phil talks about EVs that are in the use market they're wanted. In the new market, they're subsidized. So Ford's offering zero percent. Less so, though, subsidized. No, I don't mean about a dealers, zero percent finance. So they have a seven and a half percent finance rate on an expedition, because those are selling. The diesel super duty is at 19 year highs for Ford, because they pass along the cost, because it's a fleet. But when you look at the use market, it's on its head. I'd be a buyer for it. I just think the auto companies, really Ford and GM at this point, if I'm talking about US, are trading very, very well given what's going on in industrials. And I think also the story around new car purchases, if you look at SARS over the last couple of months, they've actually been extremely resilient. The age of vehicles on the road, Phil talked about some of the shorter term trends that impact people buying new. So it gets back to GM as a company that at less than six times, it's probably, it's probably low five PE handle, and is paying a dividend and has done a lot of great things to become more profitable. That's where I've been for a long time. You have been in GM in the past? I'm not in GM now, I mean, I think they've had a great run, and some of the, you know, the really great margin stuff, the Silverado, and I mean, that's been fantastic for them. I just felt like, given what's happening with oil, that maybe the consumer will pull back, but to extent that those are bought by someone on a small business, let's say, I think those are booming, so that probably wasn't a great sale. Coming up, Slimmer and Younger, how we lost drugs, maybe slowing down your biological clock and have a longevity link could shake up the space, the details in fast money returns. Welcome back to Fast Money Healthcare, the only S&B sector with substantial gains today, rising a percent. Thanks in large part to pharmacox, obesity drug makers, among the big gainers, Lillie adding almost 3 percent while Novo gained 2 percent over the weekend, the company's presented early data on weight loss treatments and longevity. Both drug makers independently finding that patients taking GLP1s had reduced biological age compared to a placebo. We should caution, this is not presented as a study, it was sort of like, you know, this is what we found, it's very interesting, but still, this would be the ultimate fine. And if you can lose weight and look younger, that's such a huge concept that even Novo was up on this, for something to move Novo up, I know, it's, well, now that seems amusing, but it really is, right, that is sort of the holy grail. You would imagine also for the hedge fund community, which is very into the holy grail of finding a cure for aging, right, longevity, right, that this would be up even more, but nothing can stop the trend. So Mel, you're our resident healthcare group, you're our drug guru, but it seems to me that it's intuitive that, of course, you live longer if you lose weight. So, I mean, are we just talking about that? What are these findings? I mean, I get the, if I'm not overweight and have a series of other related maladies and illnesses. Yeah, these aren't really fine. I mean, they're not fine, they're not presented as fine days. It's all my skin type, it's sort of like, it's happening during our other trial, but it's fine, it's very interesting. But yes, I mean, GLP ones are an answer for inflammation, which is the source of a lot of diseases, which cause pretty much donations, right, exactly. If you get rid of some of these ones. Other things, right, exactly, then you're less patient. But I believe what Tim is saying, and I think this is the key, is that if you lose weight, if right now we all lost 20 pounds, our biological age probably is reduced. No, I think, I think, you'd fade away. You've gone, you've gone past the tipping point here. But is it a GLP thing or just a weight loss thing, whether you're on the drugs or not as the question? Is it a finding that you lost the way with a GLP or-- See, the things that it's not a, they would have to do a formal study on this. But right now, what they found is that the biological age of the cells, it's, it ages slower than those people not on a GLP one. That's the answer. So it's interesting. All right, coming up shares of delta flying high this year, but can the stock keep climbing? How option traders are packing for this trade ahead of results on Friday, more fast money and two. Welcome back to fast money shares of delta up nearly 20% this year, even as rising fuel costs threaten the travel industry with earnings throughout this Friday. Option traders may be betting this one goes wheels up after his loss of loss. Yeah, so right now the options market is implying that delta could move about four to four and a half dollars higher or lower, let's call it five percent of the current stock price. Now the average move over the last four quarters has been pretty modest, only about two percent. But if we look out eight quarters, the move is much, much larger, 6.75 percent. average and flows over the last 20 days have actually been generally quite bullish calls of outpace puts by almost four to one and that has continued again today and one of the areas where we saw the most activity over the course of this last 20 days has been the November 90 calls and those options are trading for around two and a quarter or about 2.7 percent of the current stock price that seems to be one of the places where people are making bullish bets going into the print. You like Delta Mike? I do actually among the airlines I like this one best I mean there's a couple things a couple reasons for that they have more immunity to the oil situation because they own their own refinery that's a plus they're the best operator I think in the space so that's a plus of course the oil situation affects all the airlines but if you're going to own one in the space on the best. Yeah Tim. Yeah I'll be on a Delta flight in a couple hours. I think both valuation and margin profile run differently. Airlines also I mean look at the resilience of airlines I know it's not been a great called two months but I think if you are playing for we talk about all these trays that are interest rate sensitive I mean if you're playing for the eventual reduction in oil prices why not hang in there on a company that's continued to grow their gross margin and the operational discipline is there it's also it's it's the best runs the best and breed. Yeah Delta as Mike said nobody hedges anymore fuel costs. I think Southwest used to used to hedge way back 25 years ago quarter century ago. Delta has the only one that by proxy owning that refiner has the hedge and refiner as we know have been taking in money on that on the crack spreads handover fest so if you're going to own one I would own Delta. We do have a news alert on wolf speed shares are soaring 23 percent. This after the Department of Defense announced a one and a half billion dollar conditional loan commitment to the semiconductor companies so you see the pop there in the after our session. Up next final trades final trade time Michael cove 500 years ago constantly on South the fountain of youth and if any farmer companies have discovered it I think you want to own XLB. That's a first once Kelly on bench. Delta Delta fly and high and I do think resilient into earning but more importantly run better capacity limits I think it's cheap. Karen yes I like Google has really participated so much recently but I think valuations tractor. We talked about cyber earlier on in the show and I'm going to stick with the NET to use the symbol cloud player. Thank you for watching fast money. Be back here tomorrow five Matt money with Jim Kramer starts right now. All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television radio internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy but only as an expression of an opinion such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable but neither CNBC nor its affiliates enter subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full fast money disclaimer please visit CNBC.com/fastminutedisclaimer