Ranking Year 3 WR Breakouts for Fantasy Football with Ryan Heath! (2026)

What's going on? It is Fantasy Football Daily. I am Grand Barfield joined with Ryan Heath on this Monday. We've got an awesome awesome show for you guys. They're going through third year wide receivers after a kind of funky funky group of second year wide receiver performances We're gonna talk through if any of these guys compounds back Ryan. I think major one of the major through lines of this entire show will be just like injury discounts really most of these players were hurt last year I'm excited guys. This is a first show Me being the lead host Ryan and I will be on every single Monday talking through a number of just very pertinent Fantasy football topics every single Monday Ryan always brings an edge. I'm super super excited about this Ryan What's up, man? It is it's good to talk to you for show of many this offseason Yeah, really really excited to get to dig into all this nerdy stuff with you Graham Yeah, you always bring just a really amazing perspective I'm hoping you can talk me more into or maybe out of some of these takes I'm about to share So yeah, always love chopping it up with you really excited to get into it Yeah, Ryan you you have like I think a unique ability to get like super granular But you're also really good at like the high level stuff and we'll get started talking high level just real quick with these These third year breakouts just for the context of this discussion you pulled a really interesting stat Basically looking at ESPN fantasy playoff when rate looking back All you know number of years all the way back to 2017 and you basically looked at you know what year of the career These receivers popped and just kind of the amount that were you know earlier in their career you two years ago wrote them magnum opus for You know career, you know longevity and receivers, but also just kind of wear and when they break out So I'm curious what did the data say in your study when looking at some of these you know year three four five Career breakouts because this is typically before we had all these big rookie receiver seasons man This is like when we started expecting these receivers to pop so I'm curious what your data and research set Yeah, so what's on screen right now just for the YouTube audience is all of the quote-unquote league winning seasons that we've had in ESPN leagues since 2017 This is just measuring the percentage of leagues in which the player was on a playoff team So they helped their team make the playoffs I like to just go 55% or higher we call that a league winning season and Yeah, it's all the wide receivers on the screen right now, but what you really notice is yeah a huge percentage of these league winning seasons that Make a difference in fantasy leagues are from wide receivers in years three through year five 56% of them were in that year three through year five window So that's really like the peak the prime of these wide receivers at least from a fantasy lens and producer-trade can flip over to just show by Career year that most of these league winning seasons do specifically come in year three That's when we see the biggest peak year four and five pretty big as well Yeah, classically we have kind of thought of breakouts as very often now being in year two for a wide receiver I think part of that's that we got really lucky with some Generational wide receiver talents that were just popping much much earlier But I think some of it is also that we're going beyond just like a breakout right a breakout is you Become like a fantasy contributor like you're gonna be drafted in the first three rounds These year through three through five guys were a little bit beyond that It's just to the point where they're one of the handful of guys that matter in fantasy every year So we really want to look for these guys in years three through five and yeah as you kind of mentioned We have a really interesting kind of class of year three receivers in 2026 here with a lot of them Yeah, either getting hurt in their sophomore seasons or disappointing so I'm really excited to dive into Each of these guys kind of individually and just talk about the case for are we getting like a discount as they're going into year three That could be really really powerful If if we can kind of buy the dip catch the falling knife that turns into a breakout That's what we're looking to do today Right you wrote a piece earlier this awesome piece looking into basically the next jacks and Smith and Jiglin Tray if you could just real quick go back to the original ESPN win rate graphic JSN I believe it was yeah 71% yeah right there he was seven on 71% of ESPN playoff roster is last year just to put that in context Yeah, I mean I'm on Ross St Browne another huge season but the majority of these players you've highlighted here Again, we're in their third fourth or fifth season JSN obviously probably the biggest one as of late Let's get into it because there are a number of players that we need to talk about and dive deep into today The first one is Brian Thomas. This was a player that all of us pretty much here at fantasy points were pretty high on last season He massively underperformed. There's no doubt about it You know, I think if you look at his first seven games before he got hurt He had a really bad angle injury in week nine that basically almost cost him four games He almost had to land on PUP But before that the volume Ryan was awesome like you know by xfp He was wider seaver 11 averaging nearly eight targets per game, but he only scored 11 ppr points per game He's basically just a low-end wider seaver 3 on production Where are you out on on btj of the players that we're gonna talk about today He is by far the cheapest and I think it's you know, it's kind of a twofold thing It's like yeah, he busted super hard last year, but it's also he's got significant target competition with jacobie mires and parkour Washington So let's lead off this discussion with with btj and where your heads kind of that like you know Should we be expecting some sort of bounce back and and how much do you Wait the injury and everything he played through last year Yeah, I want to start with this stat that we have up on screen right now This is just showing the splits between BTJ in all Trevor Lauren starts over his career Versus that lovely stretch we had from him with mac Jones at the end of his work. He sees in that was really what got us all drafting him In like round two the one to turn Last offseason which is crazy to think about I was super in on that to hand up. I was also very guilty But yeah, just looking overall with mac Jones btj averaging over 19 fantasy points per game all the volume metrics are crazy There and then yeah with Trevor Lawrence. It's just very pedestrian 11.8 fantasy points per game This is through the first part of his rookie year and his entire second season Uh, I was like very very vocally kind of against that line of thinking I was like there's no way mac Jones is like the key to unlocking btj and that that's like a reason to fade him But in hindsight, I think maybe those people were onto something last year Especially when you look at his usage and his route tree and what we've actually seen from him recently So yeah on the screen right here This was Brian Thomas Jr's route tree so just how often he was running each type of route Whether a go route a post an in a hitch you can just kind of see on the screen here that He had a much more horizontal route tree at the end of his rookie year with mac Jones lots of out routes lots of in routes lots of hitches Not a whole lot of like vertical go routes and corner routes. It was very horizontal. It was like very fantasy friendly We talk about how horizontally breaking routes lead to higher targets per out run more fantasy points right These are like the fantasy friendly roles btj was in that at the end of his rookie season But then we flip over to 2025 and it's the exact opposite it was Okay kind of early in the year, but people might remember btj had some moments in the first few weeks where Crossing over the middle of the field. He was kind of shying away from contact He caught a lot of criticism and flack for that and what we saw as the year went on when we get to the end of the season The jaguars have acquired Jacobi Myers. They have elevated parker Washington to a full-time role It was those guys who started running these more fantasy friendly horizontal routes and btj is now like at one of the highest go route rates in the league Which are generally not like amazing for fantasy that they are like low target rate routes They can be good if you hit on them But if you're kind of just this field stretcher while you have these teammates earning targets that are getting all of these kind of easier Cheat code ppr type of routes. It's just really hard to be a big fantasy relevant receiver We saw btj's volume fantasy production kind of decline as this shift happened in his route tree And now we're just left here thinking well, why would the jaguars change anything? They had an amazing offense at the end of last year Some one of the best stretches of Trevor Lawrence's career like he's finally Fulfilled this promise that he had years and years ago as the first overall pick is this generational prospect They were humming at the end of the year. Why would they change how they have been deploying these receivers? So yeah, I just don't have much interest in btj which is kind of crazy. On a different team, I might be excited if I thought there was a reason for them to change his role for him not to just be this downfield vertical threat, but that's just not a consistent fantasy role. So I would just rather draft other players around where he goes. Right, I think my only pushback with the Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence debate is really like Lawrence was a totally different player after the by last year. Maybe it just took him a little extra time to kind of get used to this new offense, new, you know, new play collar. But before the buy, I mean Lawrence was 24th of 34 quarterbacks in EPA. I mean, he was he was below average. And then after the buy came out just red hot. Like you said, fifth in EPA. He was a top five quarterback and borderline MVP candidate. I think down the stretch. The problem is, you know, one BTJ played really poorly in his own right. You look at his separation score last year, especially on the vertical routes. Ryan, I mean, it was it was really bad in 2025. 2024 though is a different story. I mean, he had like 90th percentile separation metrics on all vertical routes. So yeah, sure. Maybe his role isn't super valuable relative to, you know, maybe Jacobi Myers or even Parker Washington. But I mean, the truth with BTJ is somewhere in the middle. And I think, you know, Lawrence just really elevating his play last year while BTJ was hurt. It all coincided with BTJ's injury. Yeah, I'm still I'm still a little optimistic on BTJ. And you know, let's not forget. I mean, this was a player who had, you know, like massive season playing without a Malik neighbors at LSU and J Daniels. Obviously have won the best rookie season we've seen as of late. Two years ago, again, I believe somewhere, the truth is somewhere in the middle. I'm a little higher on BTJ than than you are. And that is okay. One player that I'll be honest Ryan, I've been scratching my head on this entire season. I really have no clue. He is probably the trickiest player to figure out in the top 30 wider Sievers in ADP and it's Roma Dunze. You look at, you know, before he got injured last year, injured his foot in late October, according to his own, you know, quotes to beat reporters in the offices. And he got hurt right around Halloween weeks. One through eight Ryan, he was wider. In the top six in PPR points per game at 15.5. He basically matched his role by expected fantasy points. That matters. But Colson, Loveland, Luther, burden, both were basically non factors at that point. Neither of them were running even close to a full time route share. Loveland was at 49% burden at 24%. First of all, how much stock do you put in Odunze's going to kind of many breakout and then, you know, let's layer in the context of like neither of their awesome rookie pass catchers were, you know, even full time remotely close to full time players last year. What are you looking at with Odunze going into this season should we be expecting a, you know, a pretty significant, you know, forward progression in his production with Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, maybe taking another step. So I'll start by making the bull case and the bull case is yeah over before the foot injury Odunze was great and he was productive for fantasy. Before the Bears by he was averaging 8.3 targets in 19.9. Fantasy points for game over the first four weeks like the ceiling was totally there. We saw it for a month. Odunze was being talked about as like a fringe top 12 dynasty wide receiver for a hot minute. Like people were in and it really felt like we confirmed. Okay, like the talent is there that this is Roma, do you say he's arrived. But yeah, I think the injury was really a revolving door moment that he suffered mid season. So I do want to say first, Roma, do is a famous for playing through injuries. He was playing through injuries in college. He played through this foot injury for a good chunk of last season came back for the playoffs as well. Like it seems like it's kind of his whole thing is just playing through injuries. There were yeah, these scary quotes of him this off season saying that his foot is basically his new normal. It's up here on screen for the YouTube audience for anyone that's curious on the full context on that. I this is really tricky as you said, I am not sure that the injury and the new normal thing is like a huge deal just because yeah, he's played through a lot of injuries before I don't think it's as clean as saying well now he's injured his foot and he was bad after he heard his foot. But therefore he's going to be bad forever after like I don't think that's the case at all. What I'm more concerned about as you alluded to is yeah, the emergence of Carlson, Loveland and of Lutherburden because for those who don't remember the bears rested Odunze pretty much down the entire stretch of last season to get him ready and get him healthy for the NFL playoffs. And he came out in those two playoff games, he played a full time role. He was at a 73% route share second on the team was not like really limited at least in terms of playing the whole game. But his role was just very diminished down it a 13% target share through these two playoff games 6.4 fantasy points per game on 8.6 expected fantasy points per game. And that is all while DJ Moore is out targeting him and Carlson, Loveland is seeing over double Odunze's targets in that two game stretch just looking like the offensive focal point that the bears really found at the end of last year. So I'm not like as extreme on Odunze as I am on Brian Thomas Jr. But kind of the through line for me really is that their teams found success doing things that were not fantasy friendly for BTJ for Roma, do you say they found this offensive success making this playoff run having these like Cinderella victories in these back and forth games with Carlson, Loveland with Lutherburden as kind of the focus. So I do think there's a real chance that we turn the page over in week one Roma, doons a has a huge role and we're like, oh, of course, like we should not have just remembered only the last thing we saw. This is a talented player. So I'm like intrigued by Odunze, but I'm not as intrigued by him as I am by Carlson, Loveland is kind of what it comes down to for me. Yeah, I would rather draft, Loveland at his ADP than Odunze at his the bears offense is really tricky. I honestly, I think you can make an argument for you just want to draft one of them in every single draft. If you're in multiple leagues, I think that's a situation where it's ambiguous enough. It kind of makes sense that we expect it to be a good and efficient offense. We probably want pieces of, but yeah, the horse I've been backing is Carlson, Loveland just because of that end of the season stretch because of Loveland's prospect profile that he immediately delivered on despite him being injured for a lot of the summer of his rookie season. I just everything just kind of gets blown away by Carlson, Loveland for me, but like I totally get it if you're an Odunze supporter right now because there is, there is like an ADP value win to be had there for sure if he just gets back to what he did the first month of last year. I'm with you on Loveland. There's just no putting that back in the box right like last three games of their run 21 39 31% of the targets for a tight end Ryan. I mean, that's just like absurd levels of target volume. That would be my main pushback. So I agree with you. That would be my main pushback with Rambo Dean, say my secondary pushback is more so just quarterback related Caleb Williams still really struggled to throw the ball down field with accuracy last season. And that's just not something that Luther Burns really going to have to worry about too much. You know, you look at their average depths of target last year Odunze was well over 14 yards and a dot. Birdon was very much just like you said with BTJ running those horizontally breaking routes, a lot of design targets as well. DJ Moore is leaving behind a ton of design targets that I imagine Luther burden is mainly going to swallow up burdens. E dot last year was just a little bit over seven yards. So any of the concerns that anyone still has about Caleb Williams pushing the ball down field with his accuracy. I think that mainly applies to Odunze within the context of this offense. And I'm I'm just kind of with you. I think six round for him is. I mean, it's basically the same price we playing playing paying last year. But I think there's two main changes. It's the loved ones probably the main target earner here like training the bride and Luther burden could be the man. John Hansen has a slightly different take our guy the guru he just talked about Roma doons a and more of the bullcase on his podcast fantasy points podcast with Brian Drake. So make sure you check that out. If you're a big Roma doons a fan or maybe you just disagree with Ryan and I maybe you want to listen to a slightly deferring opinion. I'm kind of with you though. I mean Ben Johnson has just been like the coach that rises all the tides man like I really like the analysis of basically like we probably just want to be targeting one of these bears players in every single draft. All right. Roma doons a one of the trickiest players in the board. We both agree on that. Malik neighbors. I don't know if he's necessarily trickery trickie like he's freaking incredible every time he's been on the field. He's been awesome. But man, we've got you know the injury he's coming back from. We've got new play caught our in that naggy and I'll let you speak to you know kind of the entire case for neighbors. but I mean, you look it. But first and second year, wide receivers all time. Malik neighbors is wide receiver six on that list. Only Pukinakua, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Randy Moss, and Odell Beckham scored more fantasy points per game in the first two years the Malik neighbors has. All of that said, his ADP second like a rock man. I mean, he was like a borderline two, three turn pick. Now he's going well into the mid 30s, late 30s and a lot of sharp leagues. I know of run underdog. It looks like Ryan, he's trending to be like more of like a fourth round pick at this point. Where should we be valuing neighbors? I know obviously the injury discount potential for missed games is, it's a massive, massive kind of curve we have to deal with and best ball. But in redraft leagues, I think ceiling is really what matters the most, right? We have access to a waiver wire. We have access to all of our late round picks that will hype up here at fantasy points and help you kind of like navigate. Maybe those first couple of weeks where neighbors isn't either 100% or he's not playing at all. The ceiling case for him is very clear. We know what he can do when he's healthy even with just varying degrees of bad levels of quarterback play. Where's your head out on neighbors? Where are you kind of at with him in regards to this third year breakout discussion? We have to talk about the elephant in the room here in this play collar in that naked. You spend a lot of time diving deep into play callers. I'll be honest, I think that's really kind of my main concern with neighbors is the play collar. It's my main concern as well. But yeah, we've got up on the screen here just looking at Patrick Mahomes before Matt Nagy was in Kansas City as the offensive coordinator. Mahomes was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. Even without Tyree Kill with a receiving core of Travis Kelsey and then like to do Smith Schuster as his wide receiver one. And yeah, since Nagy came in to just become involved at Kansas City, Mahomes has been down as like 20th in terms of adjusted net yards per attempt since 2023. Nagy's play calling history with the bears is also extremely spotty not a whole lot to kind of latch on to or get excited about. Yeah, I'm writing this giant play callers article digging into all their histories and their tendencies and spoiler alert for that article. But Matt Nagy is in like the bottom left of every chart like the worst quadrant to be in the least efficient, the least fantasy friendly in almost every way that you can measure it. So yeah, that's really tough. He's also two, his last two years that he started as a play collar, he gave up play calling duties midway through the season. So we're like trying to account for what if Greg Roman ends up calling the plays here or Brian Callahan or someone else. Like we are just really in kind of a wacky world with Matt Nagy and that really is like what is pulling down my expectations for the entire Giants offense. But yeah, I do think at some point we need to contend with the fact that yeah, Malik neighbors, you just rattled off all the stats through his first two years. His rookie year was the best of any wide receiver and fantasy points data history by basically every stat we care about 19 expected fantasy points per game of 43% first read target share. He is the most alpha of the alphas when it like in this group of wide receivers in the NFL, I would put him up with the Jamar Chases, with the Pukinacuas, with the JSNs. He is at least that talented, at least that fantasy friendly when he's healthy and on the field. And yeah, that's what we get to. We don't know when that's going to be this year. Most of the chatter out of Giants camp is fairly negative. In terms of whether he'll be 100%, I think it's pretty unlikely that neighbors is playing in week one. So yeah, I think it just becomes a question of like personal risk tolerance, especially in redraft where up sides all that matters, up side wins championships, you can fill in guys early in the season before there are buys much easier. So I'm often drawn to these types of bets in managed redraft. However, she writes notably worked out really well for us last year as he was slipping into round five, round six. So yeah, I just wanted to define like what is the point with Malik neighbors where we're going to say, all right, even if he misses the first six games of the year, I'm willing to pay this price. I don't know if it's going to be like early middle of round four for me. That's like a little bit rich. I feel like there are a lot of really strong wide receiver bets kind of huddled in that range. There's Lad McConkey who we'll talk about. There's Mike Evans. There's Terry McClure going around there. There's like a lot of really fun round four wide receiver bets. But I think if he slips past that to like the end of round four, beginning around five, if he starts creeping toward like the four or five turn on any redraft site, then I'm probably just going to release my draft guide with Malik neighbors as one of the biggest targets come August first. Like that's how I see this playing out. But yeah, I mostly wanted to ask you to, Graham, like what is your kind of line in the sand when you're just like, yeah, the Malik neighbors upside is worth it kind of despite all the concerns. Like I'm willing to set this pick on fire for the first six weeks in hopes of getting this massive upside outcome at the end of the season. I think we're there. I think we're close to the line in the sand already. I think fourth round is pretty fair for him. I'm kind of with you on a few of the players. Like he got past Garrett Wilson already in ADP. He's gotten past and say flowers in ADP. I'm comfortably taking those players. But like you mentioned, I mean, it is extremely rare for a player to earn a 43% first retarget chair like he did in his first season. That's like alpha levels of target volume. And then oh, by the way, Wandel Robinson's gone. It's like, it's just Darius Slayton and Darnal Moody. I mean, there's a chance that when neighbors is fully healthy, we're seeing like insane levels of target volume headed his way. I think you mentioned it. It's kind of like that fourth round. If I can get him as my second wide receiver right now, I love that. We were talking last week about neighbors in his ADP across the industry. You look at sharper leagues like FFPC and FFC. Yeah, he's already, you know, in the 3940 range underdog kind of the same pocket. I think and manage redraf leagues like you mentioned where we can kind of insulate ourselves from neighbors downside, especially early in the year. He makes a ton of sense in that pocket. I think he has lead winning upside. It really does just come down to like, I don't know, man. I've just been out on Matt Nagy. My entire my entire analyst career of doing this for 10 years. Matt Nagy has just never gonna been a good play collar. You mentioned, yeah, he's had a couple stints with the chiefs. Never really a full-time play collar. He's been Andy Reed's offense. Let's be very clear about that. You look at, you know, the four years where he did call plays with the Bears. Yeah, they were 27th in EPA over four years, Ryan. That's so bad. They never broached any higher than 18th in scoring drives per season. You know, I think we've just got a lot of, it's kind of like a previous situation. I think with Nagy at this point, if it's just like an average offense at this point, that would be a huge win. Like them being 16th in EPA would be a huge win. But to me, yeah, he's past Gert Wilson. He's past Dave Flowers in 80p2 guys that I feel really good about in terms of both their target earning potential, also their health and their play collar quarterback situation. Less so with neighbors, but I think we're kind of at the point now, man. I mean, the production, the history kind of speaks for itself. He's just an awesome player. Do you want to pivot over to Marvin Harrison? I feel like we've kind of put a good bow on neighbors. The second player that we have this ranked in Ryan's order from worst bets to best bets. We've mainly agreed on neighbors in Odunzay. I think I'm maybe a little higher on Brian Thomas, but this is the player I'm most excited to talk about because Marvin Harrison, there's so many layers to this, right? He got hurt last year. He had an appendicitis. He needed surgery. I mean, the dude had the worst luck of all time. Came back from injury, then immediately had had his appendix removed in the middle of the year. Marvin Harrison, then I think we missed out on a huge second half from him. It was very clear. That offense was just a total scam in terms of both volume and just garbage time. They were just clearly. They were down by multiple scores in a lot of games late in that season where Jacoby Brissett just kind of had to chuck it, late in games. He would have definitely benefited from the volume hack of the offense. I think that much is clear. We have the draft capital that everybody's kind of still lashed ourselves onto with Marvin Harrison. Obviously, he was highly touted pick. Let's start with what did Marvin Harrison do when he played in games with Jacoby Brissett? When he had competent quarterback play, what was his production and kind of can we use that as a baseline for what we should expect here in his third year in 26? Yeah, he was much better than anyone seems to remember. This is a player that I feel like just not just get that much hype in industry circles now. I think there's an effect where people. are not as willing to hype up players that have burned them in the past. Marvin Harrison, Jr. has never burned me in the past. I've never been in on him really at any point up until now. And now I'm kind of intrigued because yeah, I look at last year in his three full games with Jacobi Berset. He averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game. That would be the wide receiver 11 on 18.7 expected fantasy points per game. That would be the wide receiver for in these three contests. He commanded a higher first read target share than Trey McBride did across the full season. He would have been fourth in first read target share if we just take that 38% number that he was commanding with Berset. So yes, of course, the the offense was a total scam. They were in constant garbage time dropping back a ton. But like even on a share basis, Harrison was alphaned Trey McBride in these three games effectively. And yeah, everyone has just kind of memory hold that I feel like. And I don't want a memory hold that because there's a few other factors kind of coming together in Arizona this year that make me at least intrigued in Marvin Harrison, Jr. where he's going. We get Michael Flore coming in as the new head coach and play caller. Now the Cardinals have had a very interesting off season in that they haven't really addressed like the most glaring issues with their roster, I would say they didn't spend any day one or day two picks on defense. They retained their same defensive coordinator that was just running a bottom five defense all season that was getting them into these like must drop back garbage time types of games scripts. None of that has really changed. What they mostly invested in was guards, so the offensive line and running backs in the draft an infre agency Jeremiah love Tyler Algier. So yeah, this team probably wants to be run heavy, but will they be able to be with this basically exact same defense and like no reason to think that they're going to keep games any closer. Yeah, I don't really think so. And we've seen exactly what Michael Flore does when his offense is fall into garbage time because he called plays for the jets a few years back, right? And in those games when he had the combination of Mike White or Joe Flacco starting, so anyone that wasn't Zach Wilson, we saw the Flore just say, yeah, let's drop back a ton. Let's embrace the garbage time. Let's make up for the inefficiency of the offense and the defense on pure volume. And in that 12 game sample with Mike White and Joe Flacco, the Flore's jets averaged over 300 passing yards per game that would have led the NFL last year. So I could just see that it would just be the funniest thing to me ever if all season we talk about or all summer we talk about, oh, the Cardinals, it was all garbage time last year, that's totally not sustainable. It's not going to happen again. And like literally the same thing happens again with basically the same ingredients plus a play collar that has been known to just sling it in garbage time before like that. That would make a ton of sense to me that the Cardinals end up in a lot more of those similar types of game scripts as last year. And yeah, of course that in theory is good for a Tramik bride. But it would be great for Marvin Harrison Jr. As I said, he Alfred McBride in those three games that they played together with Berset. This is the highest scoring prospect in my wide receiver model going back to 2016. Marvin Harrison Jr. Like we just totally forget how amazing his profile was, how insanely productive he was at a young age in college, how bulletproof he was seen coming into the league. Even if you ignore like how high he got drafted, only Jackson Smith and Jigba and Devonte Smith have like better production scores in my model. So completely ignoring draft capital, everything other than when and how much they produced. Only JSN and Devonte Smith were in Marvin Harrison Jr's league. So I think there's like insanely league winning upside here. He goes into year three. This is when so many wide receivers over the history of the league have finally popped and put it all together. Yeah, I'm not ready to close the book on Marvin Harrison Jr. He's going as the wide receiver 33 on underdog down with Brian Thomas Jr. That's like where the market sentiment is at. I think he's super worth clicking where he's going right now. He's the only thing that holds me back is like I'm relying on garbage time to like make my case for a player. That's always a little bit scary. But I think there are other outs to that as well. If the offense is surprisingly a little bit more efficient in Marvin Harrison Jr. is just really good, which is kind of what happened with JSN last year. Like I think there's other outs to it and it's cheap enough that I'm like, yeah, I'll take the shot and kind of just trust it to work itself out based on the players talent. Yeah, that's my Marvin Harrison Jr. bowl case. I would love to be talked out of it because it makes me very nervous being invested in Cardinals this year. But yeah, really interested in your thoughts on that, Graham. Well, you nailed it. I think we, you know, every year we're trying to project volume and the Cardinals we can certainly project them to be, you know, I wouldn't say extremely pass heavy. I don't think that's the way they're going to lean like you said, but yeah, I mean, their defense is really bad in particular in the secondary. I mean, this was a bottom seven defense by EPA allowed per dropback last year. Definitely expect similar bad efficiency. So I think that much is true. It does, that does feel a little sketchy. Like we want to be investing in good offenses. I think the main concern I really have with Marvin Harrison, it's like, man, if Jacoby Berset is not very good, like they're probably going to take a look at Carson Beck by middle of the year and into the playoff weeks. If we're dealing with this offense with, you know, a third round, fourth round rookie quarterback, it could be scary hours for sure with this offense. You made an ADP argument and I think that's just the right one. All three of these, well, Mike neighbors is in the tier of his own. Odunz, a BTJ and Marvin Harrison, they all relatively go in the same range. They're all going wide receiver 29 to 35. Harrison is the cheapest one. And he is the one, I think it's easiest to click right now. And you made the great point. It is a memory whole type deal. Like, you look at the nine games that he played in full last year that he had more than 60% of the snaps. You know, his target share was up above 20%. He had at least 40% of the area yards around only eight other wide receivers had 20% of the team targets and 40% of the area yards last year is JSN, Garwilsen, Drake London, Chris Alave, Tat, McMillan, Jalen Wattel and DKM. They met Caffin. All of those players have been at some point in their career, like just alpha level target earners. I was going to mention that in that stretch, training bribes usage was basically unchanged. The dude just like he's going to get 25% of the target no matter what. It doesn't matter who's on the field with them. Doesn't matter who's the quarterback. Doesn't matter if he's playing with Marvin Harrison or not. He's just going to get the ball. But Michael Wilson, man, I think this is kind of like a secondary point I want to bring up with with Harrison. It kind of feels like he's a contingent upside bet. I don't want to put the rabbit back in the hat. By any means, he certainly had a nice breakout and really took multiple steps forward as a player last year. But he had a 12% target share and just six expected fantasy points per game in these nine contests with Marvin Harrison. I'm not saying he's like a really horribly bad bet where he's going in drafts, but he is a player I have been shying away from, especially where he's going. He's going 95 overall. Maybe that's where I'm trying to take at least my first tight end or maybe my first quarterback. He's going in the same pocket as Sam Laporta, Jackson Dart. He's going in the same pocket as Jacobi Myers, Michael Pittman. I think I just straight up prefer those players over Michael Wilson. I want to just before we move on to the final player here, where are you out on Michael Wilson? Like, do we expect like is it kind of somewhere where I set with BTJ like the truth is somewhere in the middle or should we be like really concerned that this offense can't maintain three pass catchers plus Jeremiah. Yeah, I think it's exactly right how you put it that he is more of a contingent bet on Harrison, Jr. or McBride's health just because I this really hit me when I did my personnel article all about finding the next JSN right and I kind of looked at the personnel packages that the car rules were using in these games when Michael Wilson was going off. It gets to the point where you can argue he is the wide receiver that most benefited from heavy personnel from playing next to a bunch of tight ends that are not target earners. So other than Tramack, Brad, just a bunch of like non target earning tight ends, a bunch of like wide receivers that you've never heard of. The names he was playing next to are laughable when you look back at those personnel packages to the point where Wilson splits in two versus three wide receiver sets are as dramatic as just his per game splits within without Marvin Harrison, Jr. Like that was part of like the driving force of his fantasy production really was just he was one of the only relevant eligible receivers on the field for a lot of this. And I don't think that's likely to happen at any point with Michael Flore. I think this offense is going to play more 11 personnel is kind of just from reading the tea leaves and La Flore's comments. They are excited about Kendrick born as a third receiver. He has had even as recently as last season like stretches of production. I don't think they're going to want to take him off the field to run this weird like two. who receiver set scam with Michael Wilson. I don't think that's like something that's gonna be supporting his fantasy output this year. So yeah, I am fully on board with you. I think it's really, the Michael Wilson ADP is just offensive to me. (laughing) In Dynasty formats, I get it a little bit more 'cause it's like, what if there's a 5% chance that this guy is just pretty good and kind of broke out later and there's like way more upside to that bet, like long term in Dynasty, I sort of get it. But yeah, in Redraft, I just do not understand the ADP at all. - Yeah, I'm just kind of with you. To me, it's really like I said, it's mainly like a structure thing, like the quarterbacks and tight ends that go in this pocket, like between Purdy and LaPorta and Dart and My Homes, even kind of going to a similar range, like just much, much better bets. Not to put you on the spot, Ryan, but I am going to put you on the spot. Let's play a little like either or real quick at receiver between Michael Wilson. Just while we're on this topic, I have a feeling I know where you're going on this one, but let's start it here with Josh Downs versus Michael Wilson. - Yeah, give me Josh Downs, please, and thank you. - Yeah, same. Xavier Worthy versus Wilson. - Honestly, give me Xavier Worthy, a guy that's shown a little bit through a couple years in the league, can there's always like the chance of his Rishi Rice on the field, like can see, he saw somewhat of an expanded role at the beginning of last year, like yeah, give me Xavier Worthy, I can talk myself more into that, I think. I can too, and we left Xavier Worthy out of this third year discussion, because he's frankly never broken out and last year was just a kind of a last year had the separated shoulder in the first three snaps of the season. He was set flying by Travis Kelsey on a play where Kelsey probably ran the wrong route depth, but I could see a little progression with Worthy this season. He's going to get some manufacturer touches as well. I'm just kind of with you, I'm worthy. I don't see the upside with Worthy as like a wide receiver two or three breakout, but I think he's going to have some spiked weeks. All right, a few more just real quick, either or as I have a feeling that these are all going to be the war in this situation. Michael Wilson versus Jacobi Myers. - Yeah, Jacobi Myers is like the most boring fantasy click ever, but I would, yeah, I'd rather, I'd still rather build the best ball team with him than Michael Wilson, or, yeah, I don't know, I'm never considering either of these guys in Managed Reader Half probably, but yeah, give me Jacobi Myers. - Well, Chris Wecht is going to, he's going to have some choice words for you by saying that Jacobi Myers is his boy. And for what it's worth, I kind of think Chris is somewhat right, like Myers has always been a target owner wherever he's gone. Michael Pitman, same thing. I mean, I think he outscores DK in that cap this year. I think Michael Pitman's an awesome pick. One more for you, that's a little more fringy. Matthew Golden versus Michael Wilson. - Oh man, you were testing me. - I know, I had to, we had to get one tricky one. - Ooh, I don't think Matthew Golden's a good player or a good fantasy pick or anything like that, but if I try to like, if I just try to think about the world where I'm totally wrong about both these players, like what's more convincing, it's that Matthew Golden has this year two breakout against players, I think are really good. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Strong Target Competition, despite never really doing that before, or Michael Wilson, who just scored a ton of fantasy points. I think I just lean Michael Wilson, just 'cause I've actually seen like the fantasy upside from him in like a scenario that's actually happened. So give me Michael Wilson over Matthew Golden. I'll throw him that bone. - Yeah, I agree with you. And at least we know Wilson's gonna be on the field. Like the floor he's always done just weird stuff with his receiver rotations, like we know Christian Watson's gonna be out there 80%. But there's a chance Jayden Reed could get a little bit of a Josh Downs like boost this year and actually play in 12 personnel, especially after Golden's kind of lost rookie season. So I think we found, we found the spot where Wilson should be going. And that's around like 110 to 115. Again, he's going in the early 90s. All right, last third year, eligible breakout wide receiver that we have to talk about. And frankly, this offense just feels like one where there's gonna be a lead winner on this offense, whether it's O'Marrian Hampton, whether it's just Justin Herbert just smashing his ADP and becoming kind of the top five quarterback we've all seen in terms of what he can do in terms of his upside on a weekly basis, but he hasn't necessarily done that over a full season. Yeah, we got to talk Lad McConkey. He's going 37 overall. He's wide receiver 17 and ADP at the position. Similar pocket, all three of these players basically go off the board off four really. Go off the board in the same pocket, Teteroma, Teteroma, McMillan, Amika Agbuca, and Garrett Wilson all go in that same range. Lad, man, I mean, he gets a huge efficiency boost. Like you and I have both been Mike McDaniel stands, I think maybe even more hardcore McDaniel stands in anybody on the site. I think there's multiple ways that we could start this discussion. I think it's probably best to start it from the play collar lens because Ryan, like I said, you spent so much time analyzing these play collars. What kind of efficiency boost should we be expecting from, not just the Chargers passing attack as a whole, but how will it affect Lad McConkey in his third season? Yeah, so I'll start with kind of the original argument that I made for Lad McConkey this off season in the article where I compared him to Jackson Smith and Jigba and said, maybe this is the next JSN, maybe this is how we find it. And the through line there really is, of course, he's in year three, but also the play collar change and the likelihood to see a lot more routes in two I receive her sets. And for the Chargers just to run a lot more two I receive her sets than they did last year. Surprisingly for a great Roman offense in 2025, the Chargers were among the top of the league in three or more wide receiver sets in terms of what they were actually passing out of because they wanted to have Keenan Allen on the field and they wanted to kind of place in a much more spread out way like that, right? Now there's no Keenan Allen. The Keenan Allen rumors are like to the cults. Like we haven't really gotten much of any Keenan Allen to the Chargers rumors besides them saying that like, and the doors open, but whatever. It didn't sound at all to me like they were interested in signing Keenan Allen. So we're gonna get Mike Medaniel bringing this 12 personnel, 21 personnel over to the Chargers where instead of competing with Keenan Allen, you have Lad and Makonky competing with a full back with blocking tight ends with like a Charlie Collar for example. That's just amazing for his efficiency. We see across the league the difference between two and three wide receiver sets is over a 30% per-route efficiency boost for the wide receivers that stay on the field when they're in this heavier personnel, fewer good receivers to compete for targets with. Just looking at last year Lad and Makonky only 10% of his routes in these heavier sets. For Jalen Waddle on the dolphins, it was 46%. This is just a massive difference in the types of target competition that Lad has on a down to down basis. And that is similar to what we saw with JSN last year where DK Metcalf leaves Clint Cubiatt comes in, plays a lot more two receiver sets. JSN goes from barely playing in two receiver sets to always doing it, gets that massive efficiency gain. So that's like my base argument for Lad, right? And I think maybe that was just enough when he was going in like the middle of round four. Now he's up to the three four turn 'cause I think everybody's kind has kind of become woke to this. So yeah, I want to go a little further on Lad. Why I think he's still one of the best year three breakout bets, right? Looking back at his rookie season, we were just as excited about Lad Makonky as a Malik neighbors, as a Brian Thomas Jr. Like he was in these conversations. He had over two and a half yards per hour run as rookie that was sixth best in the fantasy points data era by any rookie wide receiver. And I think the thing people don't give Lad nearly enough credit for, probably because he's small and white and this is a little counterintuitive. But when you watch him, he's also like an amazingly efficient deep threat. Like he gets it done in terms of winning on routes closer to the line of scrimmage, the horizontally breaking routes and all that. He's been among the league leaders in those. But when you just look at his efficiency on goal balls, it's amazing. The best yards per out run on go routes since 2022. So specifically since Tyree Kyl went to the dolphins, the top five is Pukinakua, Jaden Reed, AJ Brown, Lad Makonky, Tyree Kyl. And the splits get even wider when you throw in, okay, what about when the chargers were playing with Joe Alts? What about when they were playing with Rashon Slater? When they had the offensive line to give Herbert the time to let these deeper downfield go routes develop, those splits are also massive. In 2024 with their tackles largely healthy, it was over four yards per out run for Lad on these go routes. 2.7, Justin Joe Alts full games in 2025. So that's competing with Keenan, but just having Joe Alts on the field at 2.7, still one of the most efficient goal ball receivers in the league. And it goes down below two without Joe Alts. So I think in the chat right now throughout the show, we've had some back and forth, maybe Agdon by producer, train. about well is Quentin Johnston actually a better bet here because you know he outscored LAD last year or it was really close. I think you can easily argue that the Chargers offensive line being like decimated through most of the year had the worst impact on LAD just because it removes those downfield slash plays that he is so good at that creates like this amazing combination where with Brian Thomas Jr., if that's all he's doing the go vertical routes that's bad for fantasy but with a player like LAD or like Tyree Kill in Miami, he was able to combine like these short routes, these quick like these quick balls, PPR scam stuff with the downfield big play potential. That's what I see in Latin Mekonky. That's why I'm so excited about him even up at the 3/4 turn. My line in the sand is T Higgins I will not draft LAD over T Higgins who has just been a fantasy wide receiver one through like big stretches of his career. Like I won't go that far but at any one other than T Higgins if he's as long as he stays below the T Higgins line, I am in on LAD still. I'm super in on this offense. You see Justin Herbert leading the league in EPA per drop back just in the four games. Joe Walt was healthy last year. You get the offensive line, you get Mike McDaniel who made two atonga Veloah top seven quarterback by adjusted net yards per attempt in his time in Miami. We are just going to get an efficiency revolution here. I'm in on basically all the chargers but LAD is still, I just have this soft spot for him. He's just one of my favorites and I'm still super in on him even at the slightly elevated cost. I'm with you on everything you said in terms of efficiency. I have two, I would call them minor not major concerns just about McDaniel and the way he's run his offenses. The primary one is this is just he's genuinely been one of the slowest play callers like getting plays in and pushing pace over the last four seasons and particularly the last three they've ranked Miami ranked second slowest seventh slowest and sixth slowest by pace measured in seconds of play clock per play over the last three years. I think in general this is going to be a very, very good team. This chargers defense is awesome. Like they're going to be able to either be in a lot of neutral game scripts or leading which helps O'Mari and Hampton. The one I wanted to ask you most about is their pass rate. You look back in McDaniel's history starting in 22 when he took over as the head coach in Miami. This was a top 12 pass rate team and this is first two seasons and then it really fell off a cliff. In Piro, League average in 24 and then last year the wheels fell off for two. I think that much was clear. He was 30th. McDaniel called basically the third most run heavy offense. They were 30th in Piro. Justin Herbert is just like a massive upgrade. I don't know if we need to spend a whole lot of time on that but where are you envisioning this offense in terms of its pass rate going into the season because I think this is like maybe the key for this entire discussion. It's like, yeah, I'm with you. Lads freaking awesome. All this separation metrics look incredible. The guy's been, you know, he's a great player. Taking Keenan Allen off the field is massive. I mean, Allen did lead this team in targets last year. But again, I mean, I think we all kind of agree. Lads should easily be in that 20, 25 percent target share range like rolling out of bed. The key to me though is the pass rate. Where are you at? I think McDaniel is more like it has core a pass heavy coach or has he kind of learned from the new NFL meta and is this something we should expect, you know, kind of him leaning more towards the run as we've seen over the last couple of years. Yeah, I'll say what how you just laid it out in terms of they were more average to leaning a little pass heavier. The first couple of years with two and they just, yeah, trailed off to much more run heavy the last couple of years. That basically chucks out with to a tongue out tongue out low as play over that stretch, right? I would expect, yeah, we probably want to hide to a little bit run the ball more in the situations, right? As to us getting more and more beat up as he just becomes more and more apparent that he's a concussion away from retirement from ruining his career, et cetera. That makes sense to me. And you could see that in the Dolphins offense is these last couple of years that, yeah, even when they were dropping back, it was just immediately we're getting the ball out of to his hands, right? It was so like on rails like we're not letting the downfield stuff develop nearly as much. I think Justin Herbert just fixes all of that, frankly. Rich Rebar has been saying this on this feed on every feed that he goes on. Basically, like Justin Herbert's the best quarterback by far that one of these McShanahan coaches has ever gotten his hands on. So why would we not just assume that it would be incredible? Even if the pass rate isn't like massive, even if the pace isn't like massive, part of that I think is like the offense is just so explosive that you're not going to have as many plays, right? If you're hitting a 50-yard downfield touchdown every other drive, yeah, you're going to be lower in place for game because you don't need to run as many to get to where you need to go as an offense, right? And that was really what we saw when McDaniel was at his peak on those earlier Dolphin's teams before all of the two injuries kind of started racking up. So yeah, those are, it's a relevant concern in terms of can't, should we be drafting Quentin Johnston? Should we be drafting Trey Harris? Like, is there enough room in the offense in terms of just pass attempts to go around for all of these tertiary receivers? You know what? Like, I buy that, but I don't really buy that argument in terms of are we too high on a lad McConkey or like the primary pieces in this offense. The only way I'm wrong there is just if lad is not the primary piece in the offense, which would be shocking. I would think that was really stupid. I have a higher opinion of Mike McDaniel than to do something like feature, Quentin Johnston over a lad McConkey or a Trey Harris or whoever. That's like the downside all acknowledges. If I'm just wrong about what this offense looks like, then yeah, maybe there's not room for like a tertiary pass catcher to be super productive. But yeah, that's where I would leave it, I guess. Trey Harris is going to play a lot, but he's not a target owner, man. Like he just, that's just not who he is. Like, they love him as a run blocker, but he's never really been a target owner. And I mean, Quentin Johnston is not either of him. He's consistently every year, been around like 17, 18% target per route run rate. Obviously, little more of a go ball deep threat in general. He did lead this team in deep targets last year. And I think that's like the primary argument for him in best ball leagues is that he's going to have these huge spiked weeks. But Mike McDaniel, I mean, he's always been just like an extremely rational head coach. Just like throw it in your good players, especially when he had Tyree con Jalen Waddle. I mean, the entire offense, it was like every single week we'd account, hey, 65% of the targets are going to go to these two guys. And while I don't necessarily think that this is going to be that condensed, other than offense, I'm definitely with you as things stands with no Keenan Allen. If they don't sign him again, yeah, lad is is clearly like he's going to roll out of bed and earn 20, 25% of the targets here. So you said the line in the sand for you is T Higgins. Malik neighbors versus Lad McConkey to me is a really interesting debate because we've already seen, you know, neighbors be an alpha. It really is just like, hey, how healthy is this guy? Because like we talked about early in the show, there is Slayton, Tarnel Mooney, none of these guys really are all of that concerning. I wanted to ask you before we get out of here, man, you're on the clock right now, Malik neighbors versus Lad McConkey. You need a wide receiver too, which way is your head leaning? Yeah. So I got to be really clear and specific on this. Yeah, it's June 29th with the information we have. I'll say in Bestball, it's definitely Lad McConkey just because getting 17 games or that as a projection out of a Bestball receiver is much more important to me. I think in Managed Redraft that does become more interesting. I think I'm still going to lean lad right now with what we know. That's like not quite at the point where I'm willing to just throw my hands up and click the neighbors button. But yeah, it is legit interesting. It does feel like as I'm doing it, I'm like, man, I'm drafting this breakout bet over the guy that has already averaged 19 fantasy points per game just because he's injured for the first four to six to eight weeks. Like, man, what am I doing here? But that is like how I feel in my heart of hearts is I'm lad over neighbors, even in Managed Redraft 2. Anyway, I see you've got our projections up on the screen here, sort that by points per game. I'm curious where Chris has neighbors by points per game. Yeah, they're wide receiver 17. So we're baking in four missed games. Every player gets 15 games, four missed games. We're basically expecting neighbors to miss the first month on PUP. And we're also baking in some level of kind of efficiency drop. But yeah, still just slightly ahead of lad by about half a point per game in projection. I think that's where I'm at. I'm just very much like, I don't know, especially in the fourth round too, where these guys are going. It is a wide open receiver pool. I'm much more willing to just shoot for the upside with a neighbor so I know is going to get 40% of the first reads. I know who's already in alpha. It really is just like we've got to massive diverging play collar differences. It's like I consider McDandard to be a top five play collar in the NFL. Definitely do not consider naked to be anywhere close to that. But I did, I did want to get out of here with a little bit of neighbors versus Makonki talk is I do. I, man, this is going to be a legitimate debate. I don't know if neighbors is going to slide into that fifth round range where where she Rice was going like where we know he's guaranteed to miss the first four games. Like unless there's a report that it's very clear he's going to start the year on PUP, which we typically don't get until late August to begin with anyway. We will see on Malik neighbors. Ryan, this was awesome, man. I really, really great stuff on third year breakout wide receivers. Ryan, you had an awesome article come out. If anybody wants to dig more into the Lad Makonki bull case, go check out fantasyboys.com search up Ryan Heath from the search bar, read through his piece of kind of searching through the JS next JS and Ryan, what you got coming up next, man. Yeah, coming up next, I'm going to have a giant play callers article out. So yeah, honestly, when you when you asked me neighbors versus Lad when I'm in the midst of writing about every play collar, maybe I am a little too like McDaniel Pilled and focused. But that's what's coming out. Yes, but that's what's coming out next. I'm going to have a huge breakdown of every single new play collar in the NFL all their historical efficiency, their tendencies. Hopefully, we're going to have a lot of other nuggets as well about existing play callers and kind of things that we're looking out for. So yeah, look for that on the site. Hopefully in the next week or two here, I'm trying to close this one out. It's going to be quite a big undertaking. But yeah, I'm really, really excited for that. So stay tuned. That piece is always my favorite, one of my favorite pieces we have in the off season every year, Ryan crushes it legitimately. I mean, it's one of the most high value articles that you'll be able to read on fantasy points.com this off season. Tomorrow, we're back fantasy football daily. Really means daily. We will be back tomorrow with myself, Tom Braille and Joe Dolan going through some secrets through the Vegas lines. We're going to be looking at implied team totals. We'll be looking at some yardage props, touchdown props, some secrets that Vegas is kind of telling us in which way maybe we should be leaning towards in fantasy football. Ryan, this was a blast. We will see you guys tomorrow on fantasy football daily.