The podcast "Prop Points" discusses several sports betting topics. It begins with NBA analysis, noting the Los Angeles Lakers' ongoing struggles with late-game execution and defense, specifically criticizing center DeAndre Ayton's performance. Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are praised for their strong play, largely driven by rookie Connor "Con Con" Apple, who is breaking records and has become the favorite for Rookie of the Year. The conversation shifts to MLB, expressing concern over Yankees star Juan Soto's elbow injury, which is severe enough to prevent him from opening a bag of chips. The bulk of the discussion focuses on NFL win totals. The hosts agree the Detroit Lions should exceed 10.5 wins due to an easier schedule and expected better health, while they are skeptical of the Philadelphia Eagles reaching 10.5 wins due to coaching changes and internal issues. They also analyze the Chicago Bears' under 9.5 wins as a popular but not certain bet, and favor the Minnesota Vikings over 8.5 wins, anticipating they will resolve their quarterback situation. The segment is interspersed with promotions for betting tools and data services.
this is prop point on Vsin. These forts betting network. [MUSIC] Everybody, welcome to prop points, Jeff Erickson here with Nick Whalen. We are with RotoWire.com. We have a lot to talk about today. We're going to be talking about tonight's five-game NBA slate. Alex Bruth is going to join us to help us with that. We're going to be talking baseball rookies of the year. Talk about that market a little bit there. A little football talk mixed in as well. We're going to start though with golf. Start off with the cognizant classic going as we're beginning the Florida swing. Our leaders are still at nine under. Remember not a huge field. This one here huge, hugely talented field at least. Leaders are Nico Etch-Avaria and Austin Spotheren and the overnight leaders. Etch-Avaria one under through the round today. He's at nine under along with Spothermen at nine under. Big story though, Nick. Brooks Capka. He's at nine under and he's at nine under. He's at nine under. He's at nine under for the tournament. He was in three or four years ago. but you know we're starting to see. Even in the post game comments you know Austin Reeves looked dejected after the game it's like I don't know what's going on man you know we have. We have the talent on this roster that we should not be losing to a Grayson Alain lead. Phoenix sun's team but the Lakers are just struggling to generate crunch time. Offense and the big issue for them all seasoned Jeff has just been. Not being able to get stops you know I think if you just look at the raw numbers you're like. I only allowed a hundred thirteen points in 2026. That's not that bad. Well this game was played at an 87.4 pace. I mean that's like 2005 NBA style pace. That is exactly what the Phoenix suns want to do. They want to drag you into the mud because they're at a talent deficit. The Lakers gave up a 129.3 offensive rating to the Phoenix suns like that is completely unacceptable. Deandra Aten was brutal again last night. You know I think the microscope has been on him even more so than it has LeBron or Luke Adodget. I know we frame this as a potential revenge game. Yeah I know you know Aten has been in the spotlight this week for his comments. You know they don't want to they're trying to turn me into Clint Capella which would be a great thing right now for the Lakers. If you were getting Pete Clint Capella they would love that. Deandra Aten comes out scores two points grabs four rebounds a minus 24 in 23 minutes. Yeah they just they stop playing them down the stress they stop playing in critical situations in that game. Yeah and you're right Pete Pete can you know even post Pete Clint Capella would still be an improvement over what he provoked. Yeah I think they need someone to play defense and he's going to get revounced. He's not doing that. He is not providing that whatsoever there. Hey this is a family show that let's focus on the positive. Let's talk a little con con apple really good outing against the Pacers last night. Setting records for rookie brook that broke the rookie three point record and he did it in 59 games. And you know it is worth noting that I think you know this is one of those records that is hard to compare you know going too far back right because of the the onslaught of three point shooting. In the NBA but that doesn't take anything away from what can it was doing in this has been. I think pretty easily the most impressive rookie shooting season we've ever seen even if he didn't break this record which which it was clear he was going to do months ago. Given the pace that he's on. It's been unbelievable right and you know the scouting report on can apple coming out of Duke was. Yeah maybe not the highest upside but one of those guys you could plug in he'll be productive right away and then he lands in Charlotte and you're kind of wondering okay how is he going to fit with this team that. It is struggling to find an identity they're cycling through coaches is lamello ball the future here. And it really feels like con con apple is kind of tied this team together right I mean Brandon Miller yeah and lamello have both been playing well. During this this great stretch for the Hornets and you know getting contributions from moustache of Ate and Ryan Calkbrenner like they they put together. Easily their best roster probably in the last decade but con can apple stepping in and basically being peak clay Thompson from day one has been a huge huge asset I mean the volume he shoot close to 44% from three on the year and that rookie in the year race Jeff is starting to get interesting. Super flag is still your favorite it looks like he's going to miss another game tonight actually whoa never mind Jeff I just pulled up the odds when I looked at this an hour ago Cooper flag was the favorite con can apple now a minus 125 favorites at draft kings to win rookie of the year. Wow wow things move fast because we you and I were both checking on those odds earlier when we're doing the serious XM show today and you know you know flag was at minus money he wasn't merely a favor to you is still a minus money too. So some pretty significant action got put down on that there apparently but. I know there are people that they can look these sort of things up and see but yeah that that's that that's really eye opening there wow really it's it's really a two player race to VJ edge com is kind of dropped off in that race a little bit there nothing against edge com but I mean. So these two players are very special as well Charlotte you know are they too good too fast that's the only thing I'm wondering about there in terms of like adding that one more piece you know that they can eventually take the next step up I guess they can always do it through free agency and trades but they're not going to have a high draft pick next year. So which is unfamiliar territory for the Hornets but no I don't think they're they're too good too fast I think they are there's opportunity of course in the Eastern conference when virtually every team below them I guess outside of Milwaukee is not trying to make the playoffs but no I mean for a team that is not qualified for the post season Jeff in a full decade. I think when you have an opportunity like this you you absolutely season and look two months ago it didn't look like this was the direction that the Hornets were going to take and yeah in theory you know you would love to add another piece to this mix but. I think you have had no success with this young core whatsoever you know Lamellable since the day he showed up yeah he's put up numbers when he's healthy but he hasn't been exposed to winning right I think the experience that you gain you know even if this is a play a team even if they ultimately lose in the play in just playing months and months of competitive basketball is not something that is ingrained in anyone on this roster right now so I I think nobody's looking at Charlotte and saying. Man if they you know they don't win a playoff series this this season is going to be a failure they should have just tanked and got a better pick now I think the experience that they're gaining I mean this is a team right now like if I'm Cleveland or I'm Detroit I feel good about beating the Hornets in a round one series but that is not a team I want to play like the Hornets are not playing like the ninth or 10th best team in the Eastern conference this is two months now where this team has played like a top three or 14 in the East. Yeah stepping into a Hornets nest you don't really no one wants to do that for sure so yeah absolutely I think they they will be dangerous are you still using your buddies got in stink as a betting strategy come on you deserve better road wire gives you the real tools the pros use rankings projections breaking updates and data that never sleeps whether you're setting fancy line ups making picks or placing bets road wires award winning insights give you a real edge get started today at rootowire dot com and use promo code visa for 15% off any road wire product. Nick I had a big downgrade in my MLB snacking league the the other day when I saw that John Carlos stand cannot open a bag of chips because his elbows hurt too much. If you recall this was something that was initially last year as well he had double tennis elbow for a baseball player that only hits rarely plays the field but you know it's just not a good omen coming into the season for the Yankees. Now this is one of those like classic spring training stories right it's not it's not like I you know I slipped at home and fell into a window type of story or anything like that but just like the visual of I literally can't open a bag of chips which is one of the easier things to do. As a human man that tells us how severe this is I mean again we went through this last year right Jeff not knowing when we're going to see stand and then he shows up and hits what 24 homers in 77 games. You know I know he's almost kind of on his own island these days in the fantasy baseball world it's kind of anything you get out of him that's great. But I mean I really don't know how to how to evaluate this right I mean this seems like if you can't open a bag of chips right now and it's February 27. Does it sound like somebody that's going to be remotely ready by the time opening day rules around in a month. Exactly 200 to 1 to win the home the home run leader and baseball there and I wonder what I haven't seen didn't see the movement before because I didn't think about betting that there but some worth noting their Yankees didn't do a whole lot to add this off season they can't brought back band together. Resign gold Schmidt resigned Cody Belinger didn't really bring out much from the outside and that one there maybe that something that come to root NFL win totals coming up next this is prop points. So you're listening to this podcast because you want an edge but what if I told you you're only halfway there. You've got the mindset now it's time to get the toolkit to match here's the thing pro better spend thousands on data and tools but what they don't want you to know is that you can get the same edge for a fraction of the cost with V. And then you get access to expert picks public betting data prop projections powerful tools analytics and more just tap the link in the description and see why thousands of betters are already using V. And then you can get access to more bets. And then you can get access to more bets and you can get access to more bets and you can get access to more bets. to $3206. Cap set to increase to 301.2 Mill. That's up about 22 million from last year, up about 100 million from just four years ago. Titans, Raiders, Jets, Chargers, and the Commanders projected it to have the most cap space entering the off season. Then we mentioned this. We've been tracking it throughout the week. Jeff George Pickens looking like he's officially getting that franchise tag from the Dallas Cowboys. Yeah, indeed. And this is the Cowboys, how they usually play things when it comes to that with their premier free agent. They did it with, you know, they recently did it with, you know, with Michael Parsons, I believe they did that. I know they, they, they've kind of run that gamut there a couple of other times with other, some of their star players. And they've also just protracted negotiations a lot. And I get having some flexibility there. I understand that. But the longer you wait, the more you give someone else a chance to set that market and set a you. And then you end up paying more as a result of that plus of the acrimony that comes with that, those protracting negotiations. Hopefully they still get this done pretty quickly with Pickens. Let's take a look at the wind total market, Jeff. We'll use some numbers from the draft King sports book. I know you have a handful in pocket. I got a bunch that I like as well. We are in agreement on this looking like a potential bounce back year for the Detroit Lions. Yeah, we are. You know, last year we, you know, we were both down on the Lions quite a bit. And some of that was because of the schedule. Remember, they had a nasty schedule last year. You had, you know, a ton of tough road games, you know, they played all those top first place teams top cross cross conference games this year. It's the opposite. They have a third place schedule. They get a lot easier of a little track there. And I think that's going to be the start of it. I think they figured out their offensive coordinator situation. I think we're taking it on faith that they're going to improve their offensive line. That's the tricky thing about wind totals this early before free agency that you do have to worry about like, how are they going to address some of their known deficiencies? They've also run like really unfortunate luck on the injury gamut there the last two seasons. You got to imagine some of that luck corrects. Yeah, you hit on a lot of the key points for me. I think the Lions over 10 and a half is going to be a popular one. They are more heavily favor than I would have expected to win the NFC North, which is again going to be maybe the most competitive division in football. But you hit on the main thing, which is I don't know if there's a team outside of San Francisco that has had worse health luck than the Detroit Lions over the last two seasons. So obviously they need to stay healthy. You know, the defense has just been, you know, terrorized by injuries each of the last two seasons. The offensive line is not what it once was. So there are things that need to be addressed this off season. But I think the schedule is a huge part of this Detroit is projected to have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL at least on paper. You compare it to the Chicago Bears who of course won that division. They get the first place schedule this season. They play Jacksonville, Seattle and Philly as their, you know, non rotation games, their wild card games, if you will, Detroit gets Tennessee, Arizona, and the New York Giants in there. So that's where you start to see the difference in those early schedules, having a factor. So I am on the Lions over 10 and a half. You are as well. I know you're looking at potentially fading the Philadelphia Eagles, Jeff. They're wind total coming in at 10 and a half. Yeah. And maybe this is narrative street. In fact, I know it's a narrative street, but there they've had some key losses this off season. They lost their offensive line coach. They've got a fresh new offensive coordinator. They're fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons. Hopefully Sean Manion works out better than Kevin Fatula did, but they're there's threat. Lane Johnson's talking about retirement. They've got, there's a lot of rumbling about maybe trading away, AJ Brown. There's a lot of bad juju here. And, you know, I think there's a lot of faith. Oh, it's Philly. They'll fix it. They're a smart franchise. They'll bring in a lot of the players error that will address what they need. But again, they want, they still won their division. They're still going to be facing a first place schedule. I think offensive line is one of those things that's been a strength for a very long time. He's losing this legendary offensive line coach. I think that there's some negative factors going on here. All right. Fittingly, we have a message from our friends over at DraftKings. It may be the off season in the NFL, but on DraftKings football never sleeps. Early bird bestball is back. You can get in now to compare of $1 million in total prizes before the season even kicks off. If you haven't played bestball before, very simple stuff. You draft your team ones, and that's it. Each week, your highest scores automatically count. 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So I put this one on the list, Jeff, because I think it is an interesting one to discuss. I think everybody's going to be on the bears under nine and a half. A lot of it's similar last year to the Washington argument, right, where the commanders come out and know where they go to the NFC championship. You're looking at the roster. You're kind of wondering, okay, how did this happen? The schedule is going to be tougher. We have a lot of those same factors for the Chicago Bears, but I'm still not 100% sure I love the under here. I lean in that direction because they do have the toughest projected schedule in the NFL. You know, obviously they led the NFL and turned over forced last year. They won seven games by five points or less. There was a stretch for about two months in the middle of the season, where they were just winning every single game on the final possession. Look, we know those things don't carry over year over year. There will be some regression for the Chicago Bears. But what makes this different than the commanders last year, Jeff, is I really like the roster for the Chicago Bears. Yeah. With Washington, you were kind of scratching your head and saying, okay, this is like the oldest team in the league. How are they going to sustain this? You know, they really only have one receiver that the bears to me are on the way up. Whereas, you know, Washington had the young star quarterback and Jane Daniels, but everything else around him didn't really match that trajectory. So I think it's a little bit reductive to just say, oh, they'll be this year's version of the commanders. There are several factors that would lead me toward this likely being an under, but I don't think it's a lock by any means. I think the bears are building something. I like the quarterback. I like the head coach in Chicago a lot more than I did in Washington heading into last year. Yeah, agreed. Agreed. And Washington had such an old roster that even going in, you know, old roster even last year, it was it didn't fit the profile of an up and coming team, whereas the bears probably are better suited as far as that goes. Hey, let's just make this NFC North centric because I got another team I want to talk about in the Minnesota Vikings. I like the over eight and a half. And you're getting plus money at that right now, plus one 15 call this a vote of confidence that they figure out the quarterback position that they make the acquisition that gives them a better safety net or maybe even someone ahead of JJ McCarthy last place schedule. I think there's a lot of things in favor of the Minnesota Vikings going into this season. I mean, little down fact Jeff, the Vikings went over this number last year, right? I mean, they ended up winning some games at the end of the season. I like this one a lot. I think this is actually one of the better values on the board. And you said the key component here, which is they need to get the quarterback situation figured out. I think they will. I think the way the Vikings have operated already this off season, you know, parting ways with your GM kind of out of nowhere, you know, after that cycle, I mostly concluded all the sudden, Quesy is out of there and kind of gets flamed by the organization on the way out. I think they they're essentially admitting their mistake not only letting Sam Darnold get out of that building, but then replacing him with JJ McCarthy. So I think there's kind of a level of desperation, a level of urgency right now with this Vikings team because they're not an ascending team. They built this thing to kind of get the roster where it needs to be dropped the quarterback in there and win right now. The problem is they don't have the quarterback. I think they're going to be aggressive. I think they could be the Derek car team. Honestly, and I know, you know, it's Derek car at best, you know, he's one of the, you know, what 13th, 14th best quarterback in the NFL. I think that's fine. Considering the infrastructure around him, you have one of the five best coaches, you know, maybe the best defensive coordinator in the NFL. If you could just get competent quarterback play, I think this could easily be a nine win team. Yeah, this is my best bet of all these that we're talking about may come up a little bit later. Yeah. I think this is an endorsement of their organization, not them trashing the GM on the way out that not that part, but everything else I do like though. They have, they have some issues in terms of dealing with getting everything to fit under the cap. I mean, this is the thing is they build everything to compete now. So they're going to do whatever it takes. I have that faith that they are. It's not the greatest market to go out and get a quarterback, but I think they'll find a way. They actually have some draft picks this year too. Only four draft picks last season. I think that was something that really hurt them going into that. All right. We're going to shift our conversation over to the NBA, joining us next on the progressive guest line is going to be our good friend, Alex Barutha from RotoWire.com. A five game NBA slate. We'll get Alex's take on all of those games. Get his reaction. Maybe some of the games that happened as well. Maybe some of his favorite props. This is prop points. I'm Jeff. He's Nick. We'll be right back with Alex Brutor. Washington prop points on V.C.M. V sports betting network. Welcome back to prop points here on V.C.M. Also listening along over on serious XM channel 158. Time to turn our attention to the NBA. Got a five game slate coming our way on this Friday. A little bit of a lighter slate than a typical Friday. And to help us break it down, we got our friend Alex Barutha, our lead NBA editor, one of our betting experts over at RotoWire.com. Joining us on the progressive guest line, you could of course find all the V.C.M. work over at RotoWire.com. You can find all of his great Twitter threads every day. Dig a deep on fantasy hoops at Barutha Alex. Alex, welcome in, man. We'll get right to the board. I know you have a handful of plays in pocket. A little bit of a, I don't know what the right word is. It's going to say messy slate. You know, when you're looking at a net Celtics game where the Celtics are 18 and a half point home favorites, but you have found some value here. Look at that. Nick Clackston. Yeah, I mean, you mentioned the spread in this game. The total is down at a low 208 as well. So I think the books are not expecting a great offensive night from the Brooklyn Nets. But yeah, Nick Clackston under 20, 1 and 1/2 points plus rebounds plus assist is my play. And actually, you know, Clackston's been pretty good, especially in February. He's averaging much higher than this lately, 15, 6 and 4. But the past 10 games for Boston defensively. And I think this is where we get this total from fewest opponent points per 48 minutes, fewest opponent assists and eighth fewest opponent rebounds. If you, if you just look at some of the centers they played over the past 30 days, they held Shengoon to 13, 9 and 3. They held out a bio to 16, 7 and 1. Cat only had 11 and 10 against his team. If you want to throw Deandre in there, 4 and 7 for Deandre and against the Boston Celtics. So look, I mean, their center rotation is not the deepest. But I think they've scheme themselves into a great defense against centers lately. Alex, it's probably taking season. So that also creates opportunities for us there, trying to find those tankproof players. You talked about Jarris Walker, the Pacers earlier is Gigi Jackson, another one of those guys for the Memphis Grizzlies. I think he is. Yeah, this Memphis Grizzlies team. I mean, they've kind of gone the route of a lot of other these tanking teams for nobody on this team. See 30 minutes of game. But ton of guys see like 25 to 29 minutes game. Gigi Jackson's one of those guys. I think tonight's a good opportunity for him against Dallas Maverickson, another team that's struggling. His line right now, PRA 24 and a half against Dallas. I like this in February. He's averaging 17, 6 and 2. But Dallas, again, another one of these teams is just bleeding points. Past 10 games, fourth most points, most assists, six most rebounds. And Jackson, someone who can fill up the stat sheet. I mean, and this team has given up, I mean, this team just gave up 29, 12 and 4 to pressure, Situha. So I think Gigi Jackson can get in there and do some damage as well. All right. Let's talk a little bit about the map side of this equation here in Najee Marshall as well. You know, it's this thing, you know, with injuries, with absences, comes opportunity. NBA has always been an opportunity league. What do you like on Najee Marshall? Yeah, you mentioned it. Dallas has been really banged up lately. And Daniel Gaffer and PJ Washington, both questionable for this game against Memphis, Cooper flag. Technically, has not been ruled out yet. I would consider him doubtful. It seems really unlikely he's going to play. And we've seen all season, Najee Marshall is someone who can step up. I mean, he's even since this time and on the pelicans, he was someone who was just a really underrated playmaker. 23 and a half points plus assists is his mark. The past six games for Najee Marshall. He's averaging 23 points and four assists. And again, Memphis and other team, defensively, giving up the most points per game, third most assists. And they've allowed some big performances to other guys lately too. And some guys who you might not even call like heavy playmakers, like they gave up 16 points and six assists to Al Hordeford. They gave up 20 points and five assists to Nas Reed, 22 and seven to Derek Queen, who obviously is a better playmaker. So they're pretty vulnerable to these like playmaking big physical wings. And Najee Marshall 100% fits that bill, especially with the increased usage, the high total in this game at 239. It's setting up pretty well for him. We're talking with Roto Wires, Alex Barutha. If you're betting college hoops, now is the time to get your edge. Right now, you can get VS VS in pro access through May 1st for just 29.99 with our hoops, Mania special. VS in pro gives you daily best bets. Real time betting splits from draft Kings and circa AI powered prop tools and full access to every VS show on demand. You'll also get our March Mania betting guide packed with team breakdowns, betting trends, future strategies and picks from VS in top analysts. If you're planning to bet college hoops, VS in pro gives you a real edge. Sign up now at vson.com/subscribe. All right, Alex, let's talk a little bit pistons, cabs, one of the better games. We'll get out of tankathon mode here. There's a lot of storylines in this game, but you have a property like on Duncan Robinson. I do. Yeah, and we should mention, you know, Cleveland will be without Don Van Mitchell tonight. James Hargan's questionable. We'll see what they do there, although Detroit's favorite by six points to 27 total on this game. But Duncan Robinson, yeah, two and a half made threes is his line. It shaded towards the over, but he's made a three and 12 straight games. I mean, that's what he's out there to do, right? His pistons team, their issue is their floor spacing in terms of like what could make or break their season, come playoff time. So they absolutely need Duncan Robinson out there. And during this 12 game strategies, making 3.3 triples per game on 42% and Cleveland, again, they're a good defensive team, but they give up threes, you know, seventh most made threes over the past 10 games for Cleveland. They do like to pack the paint with Jared Allen and Evan Mobley and just do everything they can to stop teams from getting there and a log of that result and just guys on the other team, like they don't even want to go in there at all. So a log of the offensive action happens around the perimeter. And you can see that with some of the big performances lately. I mean, Con Canipoli, seven threes against this team. I say a Joe Ed six, five other individual players have made at least five threes against the Cavaliers in the past 30 days. And so I think this continues to be a good spot for someone like Duncan Robinson. I like that call quite a bit now. It's like the volume's going to be there. Caves bottom five in the NBA in terms of three pointers allowed since the All Star break will pass along some injury updates, by the way, for the Dallas Mavericks. I know you had a couple plays in that game, Alex Cooper flag officially ruled out, Marvin Bagley Clay Thompson and PJ Washington all out or doubtful. And we know what doubtful means in the NBA these days. So we would likely be looking at a short handed version once again of the Mavericks tonight. Alex, one of the better games on the board, the New York Knicks in Milwaukee tonight to take on the Bucks. Knicks are eight and a half point road favorites. But this is a bit of scrappy Milwaukee Bucks team. They want eight of their last 10 all the sudden they're back in the play and mix. We're still awaiting the return of Yannis and Tenequippo, which could come in the next week or so. Now, no Yannis tonight. This should be a spot where the Knicks should look to take advantage. But is this one where you would touch the side or are we going to the prop market? I'm going to the prop market. Like you said, Milwaukee's been playing a little bit too well for me to just automatically say, well, this is a this is a the Knicks, you know, minus eight and a half spot. So I I know going to Jalen Brunson because the Bucks have had issues guarding point guards where Brunson's over under the system five and a half. He's had four at least four assists in 11 straight games, averaging seven during this stretch, which is much higher than, you know, recently partially because Carl Anthony Towns had been struggling so much. And Brunson got to carry a ton of the offensive workload. And but now I think he's he's a little more comfortable distributing because, you know, the surrounding players are playing a lot better. Ojana Nobby's healthy. More opportunities for him as a dime dropper there. And past 10 games for the Bucks defensively eighth most assists. Third another team that gives up a ton of threes as well. So just a lot of guys standing around the perimeter of Brunson drives and kicks and there's just someone waiting to catch and shoot an open three to give him an easy assist. Indeed, I'm fascinated by this game. I think I like that prop as well. We got one more a big game Thunder Nuggets. It looks like SGA might be back. We got Kason Wallace playing in this one here. You like his three prop over against the nuggets. I do. And you mentioned the big thing here, which is SGA is back. And so, you know, maybe on the surface, this doesn't look like a great opportunity for Kason Wallace. I don't know if just SGA is going to play 35 minutes in this game. I also think Kason Wallace has been playing so well that I think you want to just kind of ride the momentum if you're marked diagonal. Like, can we just prioritize this guy's minutes? Maybe get a more comfortable see what he can do for us. So I like him over one and a half made threes here. And I think it's that plus money at a lot of books. Yeah, plus one 18 on the season. This is about his average. But Denver, again, another one of these teams, they give up a tongue of threes. Third most opponent made threes over the past 10 on February 1st, Wallace hits seven threes against this Denver Nuggets team. So I think he's clearly comfortable against them. Maybe they'll come out with a game plan to slow him down, but obviously when SGA and Chet Hongren and Arnstein are on the court, like you can't really be 100% focused on on stop in case of Wallace. Yeah, Thunder sitting as a seven and a half point home favorite tonight. Total now went up to 233 and a half. Nuggets been struggling. One of the five worst defenses in the NBA coming out of the All-Star break and may not have Jamal Murray tonight. He is considered questionable with an illness. Alex, awesome stuff in. You can find all of Alex's work, of course, over at rotawire.com. Make sure you check them out on Twitter @barutaalix. He joined us via the progressive guest slide. We got to take a break where we come back to switch gears over to Major League Baseball. Take a look at Jeff Erickson's top five rookies in both the AL and the NL. Hit that when we come back. You're watching Prop Point. You're on Visa. [MUSIC] You're watching Prop Points on Visa. These sports betting network. [MUSIC] Welcome back into Prop Points, Nick Whale and Jeff Erickson here with you on these sports betting network. Jeff want to finish out the show, finish out the week, talk a little baseball, take a look at the futures markets. Sign this into fantasy baseball as well. But what a focus on findings of value in the rookie of the year markets in both the American League and the national league. So let's start on the AL side of things. Jeff, using the numbers from the DK Sportsbook, Trey, you savage right now. Currently you're rookie of the year, favorite at plus 370. Mootataka Murakami at 6 to 1 Carter Jensen, 6 to 1 Kazuma Komodo, also 6 to 1. Then a bit of a drop down where we find guys like Kevin McGonagall, San Bessayo, in the 9 and 10 to 1 range. But the bigger lesson here, Jeff, is we have like 12 guys who are 20 to 1 or shorter. Feels pretty wide open right now in the American League. Yeah, absolutely. There's not that overwhelming favorite. There is in the national league or there's actually like three favorites in the national league. But the American League, yeah, you're right. It is absolutely wide open to the point where I don't feel like betting a favorite is necessarily a good play. I don't think there's a really a great value. I try to go through and, you know, spring when I setting my favorite, these are mostly my favorite buys at rookie of the year. I won't have a slip on Trey's average as a couple of reasons one. I don't I think it's this, the deck is usually stacked against pitchers. Only two and a half in the last 14-ale rookie of the years were pitchers. I'm saying half because Shohei O'Connor counts as half. You know, it's amazing. Aaron Judge and O'Connor went back to back in 2017 and 18. Pretty good rookies, time to be rookies in the A.L. there. But, you know, for the most part, you know, pitchers have it are up against a little bit. But the other reason with the savages, I think that the Blue Jays might restrict his innings a little bit this year. And I know they're defending the A.L. champ. They, you know, are out away from winning the World Series last year and you savaged play to big role in that. I think there'll be a little bit of regression with him as well. So I just don't think it's necessarily a good bet. So I'm going to try to focus on some others that might be slightly better bets. Okay. So if you had to bet one of these guys right now at value, you're looking at Carter Jensen for the royals as your best bet. Yeah, I like his opportunity to get play 120 plus games. Maybe even more for the royals. Got the call up last year. He held up pretty well. He's, you know, I like the hard hit rate. I like, you know, the opportunity to play both catcher and maybe D.H. A little bit there. He and Salvador Perez kind of oscillating back and forth. He'll probably, Jensen will probably catch more than Salvador Perez will this year though. But that D.H. possibility gives us the chance for more at bats. And that's one of the things I like about that where he'll be maybe playing more than some other players that would at this position. That's why I like him, for instance, better than Samuel Bessio, who is pretty much I think going to be more of a catcher. We'll see how the royals play that one out. Second on my list, Tatsuya M.I. for the Houston Astros. One of three major players coming over from Japan to, and they're all coming over to the American League. He's probably the guy that has the best chance. At plus eight 50, I think it's a pretty decent price. There'll be their number two starter. Had about a 95 mile an hour fastball. Decent strikeout rate cut down his walks last year. I think there's a lot of things that are in favor of M.I. And he signed a short term bet on himself sort of deal too. I always kind of like that sort of, you know, that motivation, motivation coming from a player. He's not kind of, he's not kind of getting fat on a big contract. All right. If we're looking for a long shot, even a semi long shot, Jeff in the American League, who would that be for you? I'm going to, I'll give you my fourth and fifth choices here. Well, my fourth choice is to be chased a lotter at 20 to one. You get a pretty decent payout. He might bat second for the Cleveland Guardians. He and George Valera got the call late in September. And in fact, in the lotter, he didn't even make his guardians debut until the playoffs has had a lot of injuries in his minor league career. But he's got drawn comparisons to great, great size more good center fielders and power some speed. Opportunity is there too. An opportunity is one of the biggest things driving this too. Compared to maybe some players that might get the call later on. I'll throw out some honorable mentions. Moona Taka Murakami, Connolly Early, pitcher for the Boston Red Sox, Kevin McGonigal, you know, maybe one of the top three prospects in baseball. But when will he break with the team? Will it be in April? Will it be in June? It could be later. The Tigers have multiple options and McConnell's defense isn't necessarily good enough to displace Havi Bias or Zach McKinstree at shortstop. And Travis Bazon on the Cleveland Guardians as well. High pick a couple of years ago in the draft. Up the middle is kind of weak for the Guardian. So Bazonica get the call. Get the call pretty quickly. Let's head over to the National League, rookie of the year market. A little bit more striation here, a little bit more strength at the top. Conner Griffin of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Of course, your favorite at plus 280. Honestly, a little surprise that number isn't shorter than where it is right now. I think that could shorten up by the time we get to opening day, but you got JJ weather holds in the mix. You got Nolan McClain as well. All three of those five to one are shorter. Yeah, that's right. Any one of these top three, I think would be the clear favorite in the American League and might even have shorter odds than they do in the NL right now. I mean, there's no shortage of hype with Conner Griffin right now. And for good reason, he's James Anderson's number one prospect with a bullet. Those two that two home run game earlier this week against the Red Sox is really raised that profile. He skyrocketing in ADP also for fancy drafts. You used to be able to get him after pick 200. Now you're looking probably around pick 150. If you really want to make sure you can get him ADP for the last two weeks is like closer to 180, but that's heavily weighted towards earlier in a couple of weeks ago. And it's a good debate. Do you take the plunge on him and not? He could be a generational prospect and that players don't debut at 19 very often. Even 20 would be great. He's dominated every single level. I think if you were in the American League, you might even be closer, less than two to one, which you never see that on a futures market for something like this. The clean was awesome with the Metz last year. He was their best pitcher down the stretch. You know, the fact that he's succeeded already in the major league speaks well for his chances. It will be the Metz number two starter, most likely coming out of a camp here. So a good pitcher on a winning team. That's always a good formula. And then JJ Weatherhole has dominated every single level. I love the plate discipline stats with Weatherhole more walks and strikeouts at a couple different levels so far. Good power, especially in triple A. He's got a clear path to playing time. We'll probably debut at second base because they have Mason, Win at shortstop. Win has already signed a contract extension. It is really good defensively. That might be the one thing that holds Weatherhole back. Actually, a little bit is trying to adjust to a different position. There's some talk about in playing third. Some talk about him playing second. It seems like they've settled on second base. Fantasy wise, you get him at short and second. That's a pretty nice combination though. All right, Jeff, if you had to pick one long shot for NL Rookie of the Year, your options are just a Crawford of the Phillies at 16 to 1, Carson Benj of the New York bats at 22 to 1. Who do you like more at cost? I'm going to go Crawford. I feel better about his chances of playing right away. And I think he's going to have, you know, play a lot of flashy defense in center field. Might get a pile up a pretty high stolen base total. That seems to be like a little bit of fly paper for voters. So I think that will help a little bit there. But Benj actually has a higher payout at 22 to 1. You like that. I'll say this though. I listed five. This list goes pretty deep in terms of viable candidates. We're talking about the ale having a lot of candidates. The NL actually has more. But because you have those bigger names at the top, it's harder. But like guys like Sal Stewart, Bubba Chandler, Bryce Eldridge, Logan Henderson, Moises by a Starris Robbie Snelling more, even more. I can probably list about 20 players that I think have a legitimate chance to make a pretty big impact. I'll tell you, if you play in a strat thematically and you're looking forward to next year's draft class, try to stockpile a couple of first round picks if he can because there's going to be a lot of interesting fun debuts this year in the National League. Before we take you into the weekend with some best bets of the night, make sure you stay locked here on Vsyn coming up after us. It's money moves with Jonathan Vontobal. My palm going to check in from Circa. Will Hill share some of his plays for tonight. We're going to have Zach Cohen joining the show with his best bets in the NBA coming up at 4 p.m. Eastern. Follow the money. Mitch Moss and Paulie Howard. Beasts in prime time. Taking over at 7 p.m. Eastern. So lock it in here on Vsyn here on Series X7 channel 158. The rest of the day. Jeff, what are we doing here? Best bet of the day for Friday. Are we going with that NFL win total? We are. You know, you and I talked about it. We both like the pick like the Vikings over 8.5 wins plus 115 over at draft Kings. I like getting plus money on that one there. This is an endorsement of Kevin O'Connell. It's an endorsement of the rest of this roster. It's just and the belief that they're going to get the quarterback spot right and keep in mind you still have awesome elite wide receivers pass catchers over on the Viking side there. So I think they bounce back strong. All right. I'm going to a tanking on tanking game. Jeff Memphis Dallas, our guy Alex Baruta talked about some of his favorite plays in this game earlier in the show. I like Chris Middleton. Over 21.5 points plus rebounds plus assists played this at minus 11 at draft Kings earlier this morning. No Cooper flag doesn't look like Bagley Clay or PJ Washington are going to be out there. Even if they were playing or see Chris Middleton kind of reemerge here auditioning perhaps for a potential buyout. He's played 30 plus minutes in three of the last four games. The only game where he didn't beat that mark. He got hurt. He left early. He's put up Chris Middleton numbers of old of late to give me the over 21.5 on the PRA or Chris Middleton. That's going to wrap the Friday edition of Propvoids here on Vsyn. Money moves with JVT coming their way next. We'll talk to you on Monday.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast covers multiple sports topics, including the NBA (Lakers' struggles, Hornets' improvement), MLB (injury concern for Juan Soto), and NFL (analysis of team win totals for the Lions, Eagles, Bears, and Vikings).
In the NBA, the Lakers are criticized for poor crunch-time offense and defense, while the Hornets' strong play, led by rookie Connor "Con Con" Apple, is highlighted, making the Rookie of the Year race competitive.
In the NFL, the hosts discuss betting outlooks, favoring the Lions and Vikings to exceed win totals due to easier schedules and roster improvements, while expressing caution about the Eagles and Bears.
Summary:
The podcast "Prop Points" discusses several sports betting topics. It begins with NBA analysis, noting the Los Angeles Lakers' ongoing struggles with late-game execution and defense, specifically criticizing center DeAndre Ayton's performance. Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are praised for their strong play, largely driven by rookie Connor "Con Con" Apple, who is breaking records and has become the favorite for Rookie of the Year.
The conversation shifts to MLB, expressing concern over Yankees star Juan Soto's elbow injury, which is severe enough to prevent him from opening a bag of chips. The bulk of the discussion focuses on NFL win totals. 5 wins due to coaching changes and internal issues.
5 wins, anticipating they will resolve their quarterback situation. The segment is interspersed with promotions for betting tools and data services.
FAQs
The race is now a two-player contest between Cooper Flagg and Con Con Apple, with Apple recently becoming the betting favorite at DraftKings.
The Hornets have been playing like a top-three or four team in the Eastern Conference over the last two months, showing significant improvement and competitiveness.
He is dealing with elbow issues that are severe enough to prevent him from opening a bag of chips, raising concerns about his readiness for the upcoming MLB season.
The Titans, Raiders, Jets, Chargers, and Commanders are projected to have the most cap space entering the NFL offseason.
They have an easier third-place schedule, improved offensive coordinator situation, and are due for better injury luck after two seasons of significant health issues.
Key losses include their offensive line coach, a new offensive coordinator, potential retirement of Lane Johnson, and trade rumors around AJ Brown, alongside facing a tough first-place schedule.
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