Brian Coburger’s 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students—Madison Mogan, Kayleigh Gonzalez, Zana Carnotal, and Ethan Chapin—were the result of a premeditated, meticulously planned attack, evidenced by his repeated surveillance of the victims’ home, purchase of a K-Bar knife, and attempts to erase digital trails. Despite his academic background in criminology and a detailed understanding of crime scene processing, Coburger made critical mistakes: he panicked during the escape, drove at excessive speed, and left behind the knife sheath, indicating a lack of real-world experience and emotional preparedness. The victim selection—focused on a predominantly female household—suggests a sexual or power-driven motive, even without overt sexual assault. His behavior, including the sudden confrontation with Zana and the killing of Ethan, reveals an attempt to maintain control over the situation, disrupted by unforeseen interactions. The case highlights a crucial distinction between theoretical knowledge and practical execution in criminal behavior. Coburger’s guilt stemmed from a combination of rational planning and emotional instability, showing that even organized offenders can be caught off-guard by real-time reactions. Ultimately, the episode emphasizes that behavioral analysis remains vital in understanding such crimes—offering insights into motive, risk, and prevention—despite the lack of definitive answers.
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In the consult we discuss cases involving violence sexual violence abduction and murder
Sometimes the cases we discuss involve children
Listener discretion is advised
You
Welcome to the consult. I'm Julia Cowley retired FBI agent and profiler and I'm joined by my colleagues
Angela Cercer
Susan Kossler Drew and Bob Drew
Angela Susan Bob and I worked together in the FBI's behavioral analysis unit and today
We're going to take a behavioral look at a very disturbing and widely followed case in recent memory
The murders of four university of Idaho students and the man convicted of committing them. On November 13th of 2022
Madison Mogan
Kayleigh Gonzalez
Zana Carnotal and Ethan Chapin were brutally murdered in an off-campus home in Moscow, Idaho
The case was shocking not only because of the level of violence
But also because of the mystery surrounding the offender and the apparent lack of motive
On July 2nd of 2025, so just a couple days ago
Although in this episode comes out it will have been two weeks since Brian Coburger pleaded guilty
To four counts of murder and one count of burglary Coburger will serve four consecutive life sentences
Plus 10 years for the burglary with this deal
He waved the right to an appeal or to seek any leniency
So in this episode, we're going to be trying to explore some of the remaining questions around this case
It's just going to be a discussion. I don't know if we're going to be able to answer these questions
These are very complicated complex types of cases
I don't think we ever will have all the answers
If somebody does please email me and come do the show with me
But we want to talk about things such as what was his motive?
Was he targeting someone specific? What do we think about that?
Would he have killed again? And if he would, when?
How do we classify him? Was he a serial killer, a mass murderer or something else?
What role did his background in criminology play?
Was he trying to outsmart investigators? Did it give him the upper hand in committing a crime like this?
And why did he plead guilty? Especially given reports that he admired someone like Ted Bundy
Who famously represented himself in court
So we'll talk about these things
In addition to some potential early warning signs in Coburger's life
Things like bullying, social isolation or control
And the mistakes that he ultimately made that led to his arrest
And why did he make those mistakes?
Before I begin a summary of the crime itself
I want to remind you that if you'd like to support our show
And get access to early and ad-free episodes
You can go to patreon.com/theconsaultpod
And if you're looking to connect with other listeners
You can check out the unsubs Facebook fan page
That was created by fans, for fans of the console
And it's a great place for a thoughtful discussion around the cases we cover
And other true crime topics
So what I want to do is I want to go through a brief overview of the crime itself and the timeline
And I am taking this almost directly from the change of plea hearing on July 2nd
And this was the outline that the prosecutor presented in court
And that Brian Coburger agreed to and pleaded guilty to this
The prosecutor started out with some information that occurred pre-attack
So in March of 2022 Coburger purchased a large fixed-blade K-Bar brand knife and leather sheath
On Amazon using an Amazon gift card he purchased shortly before purchasing the knife and sheath
At the end of June 2022 Coburger moved to Pullman Washington from his home state of Pennsylvania
To pursue his PhD in the criminal justice and criminology program at Washington State University
Beginning on July 9th of 2022
Through November 7th of 2022 Coburger's cell phone began connecting to a cell tower that covers the area of
1122 King Road in Moscow, Idaho
1122 King Road is the address where the victims resided and where they were murdered
Coburger's cell phone was in this area between the hours of 10 pm and 4 am on 23 occasions
And there's no direct evidence that Coburger ever had contact with 1122 King Road or its residence
On November 13th of 2022 this is the date of the murder
In the early morning hours Coburger's cell phone left his apartment in Pullman, Washington
His phone was turned off at 2.54 am and it was turned back on at 4.48 am
At approximately 3.02 am Coburger's vehicle entered Moscow, Idaho
From surveillance video starting around 3.30 am Coburger's vehicle was circling the area of 1122
King Road he is seen in the immediate area and then leaves several times at approximately 4.05 am
Coburger entered the area again he left and stopped at the intersection of King and Queen Road
He turned around he came back and he parked behind and above 1122 King Road
Brian Coburger then entered the back of the residence through a sliding kitchen door
He first climbed to the 3rd floor where Madison, Mogan, and Kaylegan's Alvis were sleeping
and he fatally stabbed them a knife sheath that he left behind was found beside Madison's body
and it contained both victims blood as well as male DNA
Either as he was coming back downstairs to the 2nd floor or he was leaving
Coburger crossed paths with Zanna Kernotal who had just received a door dash order and he stabbed her
He then stabbed Ethan Chapin who was described as sleeping in the bed
Each victim suffered multiple wounds and the prosecution said that there was no evidence of
sexual assault and no sexual component
Two other roommates survived by hiding with one reporting having seen a masked intruder
dressed all in black with his face covered she noted that he had bushy eyebrows
well she saw him on the 2nd floor it's reported that he exited quickly through the same
back sliding door that he entered through and surveillance video captured his car at approximately
4.20am speeding away from the scene and he's going so fast that it appears he almost loses control
of his vehicle now post attack the prosecution believed Coburger drove back roads back to Pullman
because his vehicle was not seen on any surveillance videos from main highways at approximately
4.48am Coburger's phone was turned back on and from there his phone tracks back to Pullman
where he lived beginning at approximately 5.26am Coburger's vehicle was seen on various cameras
in Pullman at approximately 5.30am Coburger arrived back at his apartment at approximately 9am
Coburger's phone hit on a cell tower in the area of 1122
King Road he was there for about 10 minutes and then he
returned to his apartment in Pullman. Shortly thereafter, Coburger took a selfie, giving the thumbs up,
and this appears to be in his bathroom mirror, and this photo was recovered from his phone. Coburger's
vehicle was then seen at various businesses in the Louiston Clarkston Valley, which is approximately
30 miles south. And following the murders, business records showed Coburger began searching for a
k-bar knife and sheath. Records showed that he attempted to delete or alter his Amazon
purchase history transactions. Later in the week, Coburger went to the DMV, the Department of
Motor Vehicles, in Pullman to change his car registration from Pennsylvania to Washington.
The prosecution noted that Pennsylvania does not require a front license plate and surveillance
video showed that the car involved in this crime did not have one. Coburger then finished the
semester at Washington State University and returned to Pennsylvania with his father for the holidays.
A trash pool at his home in Pennsylvania, done by investigators, recovered a Q-tip which was
determined to be from the father of the person whose DNA was left on the knife sheath found
next to Madison's body. Coburger's apartment and office were also searched and described by the
prosecutor as "spartan would be a kind characterization. There was virtually nothing there.
They found nothing of evidentiary value in searching these two locations tied to Coburger. Coburger's
vehicle was also meticulously cleaned. It was described as spotless and it was noted that in his
studies as an undergraduate, Coburger wrote a detailed paper on crime scene processing.
And while the murder weapon was not recovered and has not been recovered to this day,
Brian Coburger was arrested on December 30th of 2022 at his parents' home in Pennsylvania.
He was extradited to Idaho, charged with the four counts of first-degree murder and one count
of burglary. And as I mentioned, he pleaded guilty just recently, July 2nd, 2025.
That was an exchange for four consecutive life sentences without parole and a 10-year burglary term,
thus avoiding the death penalty. Any observations, I think the first observation is just from
the first thing the prosecutor mentioned was the purchase of the K-bar knife in March of 2022.
Right then, we suspect that is premeditation. A very least premeditation of an act of murder.
I don't know if it was planned at this location at this time, etc. But he has a general plan
or a general intention to commit a murder. And now he has purchased himself means to do that with.
I would agree with that that he may not know because he hasn't been out there yet, but he is at
least thinking about and fantasizing about committing a murder with a knife.
choice of weapon knife is supposed to a gun knives are much more personal, especially that a dagger
type is going to require him to get close to his victims. There's a lot here that reflects
an organized plan at least in the commission and that their blitz style attacks quick and efficient.
He presumably avoided security cameras leaving the murder location. He shut his phone off. Also,
after the crime, he cleans his car and apartment, presumably discards or cleans whatever he was
wearing at the time, changes his registration plate from Pennsylvania to Washington, at least partially
because of what you mentioned about the no front plate required in Pennsylvania, but there is
a front plate requirement in Washington. He also tries to erase his Amazon history, which contains
the incriminating purchase of the first K bar knife. He also tries to buy a second K bar knife
because if in worst case scenario in his book, he is looked at for this murder, he can produce a
K bar knife and say, yes, I did buy this. I'm not hiding anything here it is and there would be
absolutely no evidence connecting that knife to the murders and he discards the initial K bar knife
and to this day it has not been found. So all of which also his phone pinged on what 23 separate
occasions from July until November in the area of the murder location and as far as anyone knows,
he had no other reason to be in that area except to be close to the victim's residence.
So presumably he was performing some type of surveillance on those numerous occasions.
All of this says premeditation, planning, organization, as opposed to
impulsive spur of the moment and opportunistic. We're dealing with an offender who is
rational and careful and planned. My one thing that I wanted to add is that I feel that he
perceived that he was organized in his mind to level of confidence because if you look at the fact
that he ordered the murder weapon on Amazon, somebody with a history of criminal justice courses
and getting a PhD and that writes a paper about forensics, you would think that that particular person
would find a different way to purchase a knife or to locate a knife. I mean there are plenty of
shows you can go to gun and knife shows where nobody will know that you purchased it but he had
some level of confidence and maybe even cockiness that he was ahead of the game because he could
overtly do that online after the fact and after he I'm assuming erroneously left the knife sheath
at the scene. Now he's trying to backtrack and erase that because he realizes he made a mistake
and also on the news there were video cameras that captured his vehicle in the area.
The news reported that there was no front plate on his vehicle so he went and got a Washington
state license plate so that he would have a plate on the front of his vehicle assuming that
is to try to throw people off that it wasn't him in the vehicle and then he makes the effort to
purchase a new k-bar knife and to erase his purchase from Amazon. So to me that is sloppy that is
something he should have thought of ahead of time if he were truly as organized as he seemed to
think he was. Now the whole thing about leaving the sheath of the knife at the scene is a different
animal because to me it shows that perhaps he even though he appeared to be very collected
at the scene like Bob said he went in he had his plan he executed his plan potentially ran into
Dana he addressed that situation and then left the residence hurriedly but there was
some level of organization and calm and collectedness during that but as many have reported before
so this is probably not new to listeners. If you haven't committed a crime it's a lot different
actually doing it then researching it and coming up with a plan in your mind and once you get to
the actual act of committing the crime there's adrenaline there's a lot going on there's blood
there's a lot going on that you're not going to experience when you're in the planning process
and so him leaving the sheath there is not surprising if it says first time doing this
because in the middle of it you're going to forget certain steps. I think by characterizing this
as organized I think you make a good point Angela in that organized to the extent of your abilities
now granted being exposed to to the curriculum that he had been exposed to in psychology and
crime scene processing etc you might expect that he would have retained more of that and applied
that in his organization. I think by organized what we're saying is we're differentiating between
impulsive and planned and some rationale guiding his actions and I agree with you there's a lot
of novice mistakes leaving behind one of your one of your possessions is certainly sloppy and
leaving behind the sheath that encased the murder weapon is particularly sloppy but again
and Angela I concur with you entirely is there are always perfect plans on paper but not even just
murder but any crime never goes according to that perfect plan on paper something always screws up
and therefore mistakes are made you're not ever as smart as you think you are and so
things you should have thought of you don't and then even if you had a perfect rational approach
anything that surprises you anything that shocks you just the level of adrenaline can make you
depart from those plans pretty
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What we cannot plan for, and when I say we, I think if the listeners could think about
any, not even necessarily a crime, but a significant event in your life where you might plan
for.
A wedding, birth of a child, et cetera, and until you've actually experienced the emotion
of it, the feelings, you know, he may have visualized in his mind hundreds of times of
what it's going to feel like to drive a knife into another person's body.
He won't know what that feels like until he does it for the first time.
And then he's got to deal with whatever it is he experiences when he deals with that.
And he may have planned on it feeling one way and it felt something else or it was more
difficult, you just can't because you've never been there before.
He's not only executing what he's planned for, but simultaneously and at the same time,
he is experiencing for the first time what it feels like to do that.
And that really opens you up to possible, as Angela has already pointed out, making mistakes,
having to rethink something that didn't go exactly as I plan.
Now I feel like this, now what am I going to do?
And it's all a big jumble.
It's not only the excitement, but I think everything else that might go into feeling that
entire experience for the first time.
And if you're not prepared for it in entirety, if you think, okay, I've thought this all
through, I should be fine if you're not prepared for that.
And then, you know, the unexpected happens like someone gets a door dash delivery at four
o'clock in the morning.
You can start making some mistakes or it'd be easy to make a mistake.
Well, evidence of the fact that he was rattled and I'm, you know, to just abandon any clinical
here for a minute.
He was rattled by the commission of this crime.
And one of the things that is very tell tale is his exit from the scene.
He drives almost to the point where he loses control.
This wouldn't be in anyone's rational plan to fleeing a crime scene.
You would stay in control of that vehicle.
You'd probably stay within 10 miles of illegal limit per hour because you don't want to
be pulled over.
You don't want attention drawn to your vehicle.
You certainly don't want to get into a collision or lose control of your vehicle and have it
go off the road and be inoperable.
But again, what we're seeing is the reflection of the fact that he is affected by adrenaline,
fear, exhilaration, fill in the blank, anything that is emotional and has a corresponding
neurological chemical response within your body.
You're seeing that.
I mean, I'm sure it was not part of his plan to drive away and draw attention to himself
as he departs the scene.
That's just one quick example of someone who put together a plan and is making in advisable
mistakes as he's completing the plan.
It could also be one of the reasons why he leaves two live victims in that house, especially
when he has a very close encounter with one of them close enough where she can see that
he has bushy eyebrows and give a description of what he was wearing.
And why after he killed one person that he has an encounter with at the hallway and then
goes by another potential victim, we haven't discussed all of that, but this could be one
of the factors, if he was feeling out of control at that point or feeling rushed or having
dealt possibly with one victim that he hadn't planned on, that all of that could be wrapped
up into why he was more focused on getting out of the home than potentially eliminating
another victim or a witness.
I think his, you know, this goes to one of our questions, this whole conversation that
I wanted us to discuss was what rolled it his background in criminology play.
Certainly he was evidence conscious and he took a lot of steps and I think a lot of times
he will think, well, if we talk about law enforcement techniques or profiling or criminal
profiling, the offenders learn and they learn how to get better, but as we see some of
the steps that he took to try to execute his plan actually ended up being used as evidence
against him, it backfired in some ways.
And what you see is you see somebody who has a little bit of knowledge of how investigations
work, how forensics work, but he's never actually done the work.
And until you do work, you really can't plan for everything.
You think you've thought of it on my phone and I'm not going to leave DNA, but he didn't
think of all the different things investigators can do, they can get surveillance cameras,
they have, they can track his cell phone, not just on that night, but in the months leading
up to this event, they can see all his online activity, all these things and that goes
to Angela's point that just that goes to his inexperience in investigation.
You can study all you want, but until you actually do it, and successfully do it, you're
not going to think of everything and that just is what this shows to me.
So yes, his background in criminology was helpful in some regards, but a lot of that ended
up being used against him, but then it also showed just his lack of experience and how
these investigations really work.
And he was caught, this case didn't go cold.
He got caught and I think he got caught pretty quickly, having no known connection that
anyone can say to these victims, I mean, that was one thing he did do as well, he seemed
to choose victims.
He didn't have a known connection to or that other people didn't know about.
And that made it a little bit less of a risk, lowered his risk.
That's one thing that he did as far as if he had thought that through.
He were talking about how his beginner knowledge of forensics or criminal justice, you've said
many times, the difference between educational knowledge and practical knowledge can be significant.
The educational part of it can certainly be instructive and informative, but real world
application is another thing entirely.
Still, it is surprising to me that given his level of academia, he did not realize that
there are issues with even having your phone anywhere near where you're going to go at
any point during surveillance, that's the surprising thing to me.
And maybe I'm just imposing my experience with law enforcement on him.
It seems like a rookie mistake, I agree with you.
He should know better.
It really just goes back to what I think a couple of things and we talk about this with
a lot of offenders.
His arrogance, he thinks he's smarter than everybody else.
We'll talk a little bit about his history and background, but he clearly thinks he's
smarter.
He thought, I do believe he thought he could outsmart the police and then just his lack
of real world understanding of how investigations work.
Yes, you can turn off your phone, yes, you can clean your car.
You can do all these things, but he just missed some big ticket items that led to his
identification and to me that just spoke to his inexperience and his grandiosity, his
immaturity.
I mean, he was fixated on the planning and not the aftermath.
He had no contingency plans in place and I know he apparently did well in his courses
as an undergraduate and he was getting a PhD, but I think he lacks intelligence.
I think that being book smart and having wisdom are two different things and he completely
lacks wisdom, he's almost delusional.
How many times you watch on TV and then I will stop belaboring this point, but there
are surveillance cameras everywhere.
I couldn't even fathom trying to plan a murder where you're going to get away with
it.
The one thing that he maybe started off with and I don't know if he did this purposely
was picking people that he was not associated with.
That's something that would not put him as a red flag of somebody that they would investigate.
But other than that, there were a lot of mistakes that seemed like he should have been able
to figure out ahead of time everywhere there are cameras.
Right.
And back to Bob's point about leaving the way that he did because likely some things didn't
go according to plan and adrenaline kicked in.
If there was any question, I mean, I don't think there was a lot of question based on how
many times his car was caught on that surveillance camera that early morning back and forth, back
and forth many times.
But if there was any question that that car was the car involved in the crime, that notion
was largely dispelled and supports a profile of someone in panic with no real world experience.
Since you mentioned it, Julia, what do you just thoughts on?
this circling several times.
So, you know, in the leaving and coming back,
is he deciding whether or not it's a good night?
Had he committed and then he's having second thoughts?
Is he checking and double checking?
Does he see someone come and go from the residence?
I'm just, that's an awful lot of time
to spend in that area,
especially with all the surveillance
that he had done beforehand.
And he leaves, he stops at an intersection,
does he return and finally comes back in parks?
Yeah, probably all of the above.
I think he made the decision to kill that night.
I think that decision he'd made
because he turned off his phone.
He had the weapon and this was the final moment
before crossing a massive threshold.
And the circling strongly suggests hesitation,
possibly in decision.
Maybe he wasn't as confident as he thought he'd be.
And he could have been watching
for signs of movement or lights,
waiting for everyone to go to sleep.
And maybe he only had a vague internal script
of what would actually happen once he got into the house,
which kind of aligns with his behavior after the murders,
you know, making a series of sloppy cover-up moves.
Everything you mentioned, Susan,
was probably going through his head.
I mean, I think he was gonna commit a murder.
I don't think there was any doubt in his mind he wanted to.
I think at least by March and probably long before
he had been planning something or fantasizing
about doing something like this.
Now, I don't know the prosecutor pointed out this.
They were not saying that they believed
he intended to kill all four people.
And I know Bob, you had some thoughts on that.
Yeah, I think we're saying this guy is planned and organized.
And we know that he's been in that area
over 20 times prior to the night of the murder
or early morning of the murder, I should say.
And one thing that makes no rational sense,
if you're trying to be careful
and there is no other valued aspect
that you're trying to address.
In other words, if these are just people one through six
and you don't care which one or which ones you murder,
you're just going into this house
and you're murdering the most convenient victims.
And you're leaving yourself the most opportunity
to avoid apprehension and to escape that scene
when all is said and done.
It flies in the face of such a plan
to start on the third floor, entering on the second floor,
which he did, you would think
that you would then find someone sleeping on the second floor
and begin there, at least begin there.
If not begin and end there,
there happen to be two people on that floor,
so you murder those two people and then you exit.
Instead, Coburger climbs up a flight of stairs
to the third floor.
Now this is a place that is not the easiest
entrance and exit point of the house.
And potentially it's problematic to exit the house
from the third floor, but he does that
and that makes me think that he prioritized the third floor
based on prior observations
when he was performing surveillance on that residence.
For instance, someone enters the home,
he sees them walk in, he sees a light go on the third floor
and that's someone he's interested in murder.
In this case, he climbs past two people who were sleeping
or at least within a room on the second floor,
taking a chance on them seeing him and goes up to the third floor,
commits two murders there.
And then now he's confronted with Zanna in the hallway.
I think this is unplanned on his part
and when confronted with someone who's standing right in front of him,
we don't know what that interaction was
prior to him deciding he needed to murder her too,
which he then goes about doing.
Then goes into her room and kills the male victim.
Her boyfriend who was sleeping.
I think this is an alteration of the initial plan.
Yeah, I think he went in and I think he was,
you know, regardless of how many people were on the third floor,
I think his plan included killing people on the third floor.
I think when he is confronted with this situation
on the second floor, he altars his plan
and kills two more people.
Now he's seen by someone, but he may or may not have been aware
that he probably was, but it wasn't something blocking him.
It wasn't something someone confronting him.
It's someone who saw him quickly and disappeared.
To salvage his plan, he needs to get moving
because he's already spent more time
and engaged in more activity at that scene
than was probably initially planned.
Unless it's absolutely necessary, he needs to get out of there.
Unless something is absolutely imperative
that he do at that scene, after killing the fourth person,
he needs to leave.
And so he does.
But this goes to show you this is part of an event
not going to plan confronting the murderer
with circumstances he did not anticipate
and him trying to salvage his plan.
And I know we'll talk about this when we talk a little bit more
about him, how people describe him.
But when you look at his history of surveillance in that area
or his phone being in that area, it's between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m.
So he's already passed the time he likely wanted to be in that house.
I don't think he necessarily wanted to be in there after 4 a.m.
So when you talk about, you think he went in
and this was going to be quick.
And then he was going to get out, ran into some unforeseen circumstances.
So he had to get out even more quickly
than he had anticipated.
And this kind of goes to motive
and what we think he was trying to accomplish.
But I do agree.
I think he just went there to commit a murder,
to commit it very quickly.
Because if you are applying your knowledge of forensics,
you know, the longer I stay there,
the more evidence I may leave behind.
And so I do think his original plan was to get in and out,
kill on the third floor and get out as quickly as possible.
Because he was already passed, I think, the time
he was comfortable being there in terms of,
I don't think he wanted to be there much past 4 a.m.
since he wasn't doing surveillance much past 4 a.m.
and he seems to be a pretty regimented person.
So I agree with that.
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- And this also kind of brings up the point
that if his plan was, as we're discussing and we believe,
to go in and quickly murder whoever was on the third floor
in this case, two people.
- I think it is important.
I think he knew there were women there.
Sorry to interrupt you, but I think that he,
I think that's important.
- Yeah, if that was his plan, then what his plan was not.
And I know this comes up as far as a male
and during a mostly female dwelling,
was he there to rape and murder?
My answer would be no.
I'm not saying that there wasn't some underlying
sexual influence regarding his motive,
but I do not believe he was there to commit sexual assault
and then murder.
I think he was there to commit quick and efficient murders
and exit.
- A perfect murder.
- Yes.
- He was there to commit a perfect murder in his mind.
And whether that had a sexual component,
well, we're getting there.
I think I agree with Susan, victim selection,
extremely important.
He knew women or a woman was there.
- You know, he's confronted with Zana,
who just ordered and got her food delivered.
So I know Bob was talking about the fact that,
and everybody's talking about the fact
that he's got a timeframe and he wants to get out of there.
And I totally agree with that.
Do you think also though that he murdered Zana
because she interfered with his level of control,
whereas because in his background,
he seems like he wants to have control of everything.
Like we were talking about before we got online,
you know, eating disorders, OCD,
or obsessive compulsive disorder potentially,
those kind of things are based on needing
to have control of something.
He seems like a person that needs to be in control.
He's in control of his situation.
He's just killed two people and he was in control of that.
He would encounter somebody that he'd not expect to see.
She somehow maybe has a reaction
that takes control away from him.
Maybe she verbally says something.
Maybe she pushes him, who knows?
Something happens that he decides I gotta kill her
because she is, I'm no longer in control.
Then he gets down the stairs and one of my questions is,
why does he kill the boyfriend who reportedly,
per the prosecutor, was asleep in his bed?
I perceive that as meaning he's laying in his bed.
He has not gotten up and addressed.
co-berger. Why would he decide to go in and kill him?
I don't know if we know exactly where Zana confronted him.
Like was it in the stairway? Was it in the hallway?
Was it up on the third floor when he was killing Maddie and Kaylee?
And he was interrupted, and that's why he dropped the sheath.
We just don't know those details, but I would agree like there's control,
but there's also practical aspect witness elimination.
She's right there right in front of him very likely because she's up.
She's awake. She's heard what's happened.
So she's a witness. And then we don't know either.
Did Ethan stir? Did he sit up? Did something make him also believe he needed to kill Ethan
because he was also going to be a witness?
Or to your point, Angela, it's like, well, there's another victim there.
I have time. I'm going to go in there and kill him too to exert my complete control over all
four of these victims. It could very well be a combination.
I think control, as we see time and time and time again in these cases that we look at in serial
murderers, and we'll talk about whether this is mass murder, serial murder differences in our
impressions, but control is a main component in these crimes.
Right. I mean, it's so difficult to do these without having all the details.
Even something a nuance such as the surviving housemate that saw a coworker walking in the hall.
Like Sue said, close enough to see his bushy eyebrows.
I don't know. I haven't seen reliable reporting that he actually saw her.
And if that's the case, why did he leave her? He's just killed two other people that witnessed.
He's walking out the door. Maybe he didn't see her.
Besides that, the only other thing I can think of is that she's not posing a threat.
She is just peeking out the door.
I agree with what you're saying, Angela, and the other component is by that time,
is he aware of the time and just realizes he's got a face covering on.
So just realizes he's got to go at that point.
And it's still about control. Yes. He has the victim that he came face to face with.
He eliminated. There's a witness.
He goes in, probably wondering if anyone else is awake and has seen anything.
Finds the boyfriend, maybe asleep, maybe just stirring, maybe actually awake.
But decides while I'm here, I'm taking care of this too.
But he is still trying to adhere to this plan.
And that has everything to do with his feeling of control of the situation.
He needs to get back on track in order to feel that comfort
of all the planning and all the preparation that he's done.
He doesn't want to throw it out the door and say, well,
there's been one variation on the theme here.
I might as well just change my whole plan midstream.
That's not who this guy is.
So he gets back on the track of his plan and he exits.
Even this variation, not to mention all the unanticipated
and jarring stimulation that he's received in actual commission.
All of this is displayed in how he leaves.
And he leaves at an inadvisable rate of speed
and literally not entirely in control of his vehicle.
That has nothing to do with this plan
and everything to do with his reaction to what's occurred
and to maybe some of the unanticipated parts of what has occurred.
Well, at that point, you're talking about three unanticipated events.
If his plan was to kill the two girls on the third floor,
he encounters Zanna unexpectedly.
I would assume, and I didn't read this anywhere,
but I would assume that Ethan made some kind of noise
or stir or something that made him believe
that he was capable of coming out and confronting him.
So he killed Ethan.
So that's two people.
And now you have a third peering out the door at you.
You've got to get out of there.
Things are going out of his control.
So he has to move just like you were saying.
The whole thing from the timeline that we're aware of is 15 minutes.
But as far as risk level of apprehension,
every one of those minutes is increasing his chance of being apprehended.
And now he's 15 minutes, as Julia pointed out earlier,
has that time that his timeline of comfort
because his surveillance time usually ended at 4 a.m.
Another reason for it's possible why he was ending his surveillance
is then he's starting to lose cover of darkness.
One thing we didn't touch on is comment that the witness heard.
Julia was that something that was verified?
Yes, I think it's in the probable cause.
Affa David, the witness heard him say something like it's okay.
I'm here to help or yes, it's okay.
I'm here to help.
She heard him say that and so that was likely to Zanna or Ethan.
In any event, it was a way for him to mitigate the necessity
of immediate action on the part of one of the victims.
Catch him off guard.
Catch him off guard.
Control there coming up with something to mitigate here.
Yeah, I mean, it shows that he wasn't thinking completely or rationally.
He's thinking rationally.
What do I need to say in this situation to decrease my risk
and to make these people let their guard down just a bit?
Even for a split second, it's okay.
I'm here to help.
Split second, they let their guard down.
However brief it may be, to me, it shows rationality.
And I do want to talk before we get to him specifically,
I just want to talk about motive
because that has been discussed
and people have said there is no motive.
And I think there's a couple of things going on.
I do believe that there's a sexual component to this
and a need for control and power.
And I think it's all wrapped up together.
But when I look at the victim selection
and the fact that he enters a home burglary,
we know there's a correlation between sexual crimes and burglary.
And as we know, and we've talked about this with other offenders,
when you see burglaries that don't make a lot of sense
that they're not committed for financial gain,
you see things moved around
or you see things that are taken that don't have a lot of value
or you see concentration on certain specific items in the home
such as underwear, lingerie, or shoes.
That's when we start to look at this very maladaptive behavior
at a burglary scene and you have to think
that it's possibly sexually motivated.
A lot of times I think people just miss
that burglary can be sexually motivated
and I think this was a sexually motivated crime
in that he picked female victim in terms of behavior.
There's nothing more maladaptive than murder.
This crime has a lot of the hallmarks of a sexually motivated homicide.
You have the pre-crime fixation and stalking,
the victim selection, an intimate high-risk method of killing,
using a knife, entering a personal residence at night
and there are indicators of control, domination,
and likely this was motivated by a fantasy.
So he could very well fulfill some sort of sexual or emotional need
without an overt sexual act.
Also, if he did the surveillance and that's how he determined
or selected his victims,
he knew that that house was primarily a residence of multiple females.
He could have picked another place that had all men in it
and I guess maybe if your goal was completely non-sexual
it had no consideration of gender,
then arguably he would feel more powerful perhaps
if he murdered male victims.
But he chose and he selected any returned numerous times
to gain information about this, this place
and this place happened to be the residence of multiple females.
So I think that in bed during the time too,
you know, we have to say there is some consideration on his part,
whether it be just in victim selection,
but there has to be some consideration of gender here
and he selected one could argue that if you have no real connection
with any of them and to our knowledge he did not,
then he could have selected a mix of male and female residents,
he could have selected anyone,
but he selected a residence where it was predominantly occupied by women.
So I agree with you, Juliet,
there is some preference for engaging in violence against women.
And the sexual component of that,
the lack of an overt sexual act of violence against the women
as in molestation or rape or any other thing
that he could have potentially inflicted on the women,
it does not rule out having a sexual component to it
because what that experience meant to him at the time
as well as what reliving that experience,
what type of reaction could that be?
It could be potentially a sexual component
to him reliving this experience many times over
after the initial act.
Good point, Susan.
Well said, I want to wrap up part one of our discussion
of the brutal murders.
of Madison Mogan, Kayleigh Enzalvez,
Zanna Kernodal, and Ethan Chapin.
And today we walked through the facts of the crime
and discussed what they reveal about Brian Cobrager
and his possible motive and his intent.
We're having these conversations
because after pleading guilty, Cobrager wasn't required
to explain his actions.
He was only required to accept responsibility.
So that leaves many questions unanswered
and it's why careful behavioral analysis still matters.
You're trying to understand this crime
may help prevent others or solve others.
Next time, we'll take a closer look at Cobrager's background
and explore how his life experiences may have shaped
who he became.
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That's it for this episode of the consult.
Thank you for listening.
Music for the consult is composed by John Hanske.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Brian Coburger pleaded guilty to the 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students, admitting to premeditated, organized planning including purchasing a K-Bar knife and conducting repeated surveillance at the victim’s home.
His actions—such as turning off his phone, cleaning his vehicle, altering his license plate, and attempting to erase Amazon purchase records—reveal a pattern of effort to evade detection, yet also significant lapses indicating inexperience and emotional vulnerability.
The murders occurred in a structured, methodical sequence
Despite academic training in criminology, Coburger failed to anticipate real-world investigative techniques, such as surveillance tracking and digital evidence, exposing a gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application.
Victim selection appears gender-specific, targeting a home with primarily female occupants, suggesting a motive rooted in sexual fantasy or control, though no overt sexual assault occurred.
His behavior—especially the hesitation, circling, and sudden escalation—points to internal conflict and a lack of full emotional preparedness, indicating that the crime deviated from a perfectly executed plan.
The absence of a clear motive and the presence of control-driven behavior (e.g., eliminating witnesses, claiming to "help") suggest a need for dominance and power over victims, rather than pure financial or random violence.
The case underscores the limitations of academic knowledge in predicting real-life criminal behavior, emphasizing that even well-planned crimes often fail due to unforeseen circumstances and human emotion.
Summary:
Brian Coburger’s 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students—Madison Mogan, Kayleigh Gonzalez, Zana Carnotal, and Ethan Chapin—were the result of a premeditated, meticulously planned attack, evidenced by his repeated surveillance of the victims’ home, purchase of a K-Bar knife, and attempts to erase digital trails. Despite his academic background in criminology and a detailed understanding of crime scene processing, Coburger made critical mistakes: he panicked during the escape, drove at excessive speed, and left behind the knife sheath, indicating a lack of real-world experience and emotional preparedness. The victim selection—focused on a predominantly female household—suggests a sexual or power-driven motive, even without overt sexual assault.
His behavior, including the sudden confrontation with Zana and the killing of Ethan, reveals an attempt to maintain control over the situation, disrupted by unforeseen interactions. The case highlights a crucial distinction between theoretical knowledge and practical execution in criminal behavior. Coburger’s guilt stemmed from a combination of rational planning and emotional instability, showing that even organized offenders can be caught off-guard by real-time reactions.
Ultimately, the episode emphasizes that behavioral analysis remains vital in understanding such crimes—offering insights into motive, risk, and prevention—despite the lack of definitive answers.
FAQs
The case suggests a combination of sexual motivation, a need for control, and a desire to commit a 'perfect' murder. He showed a pattern of selecting a female-dominated residence, indicating a possible sexual component, though no overt sexual assault occurred. His behavior suggests a need for control and domination over the victims.
The evidence points to a mass murder, not a serial one. He committed the killings in a single incident over a short period, targeting four victims in one residence. There is no indication of a pattern over time or across multiple locations, which would define a serial killer.
He conducted extensive surveillance of the residence for months, purchasing a K-Bar knife in March 2022 and visiting the area 23 times between July and November 2022. He entered the home at night, killed the victims in a planned, efficient sequence, and left the murder weapon at the scene before fleeing.
Yes, he left behind the K-Bar knife sheath near Madison's body, which contained both victims' blood and male DNA. Additionally, surveillance footage captured his vehicle circling the area, and he later tried to erase his Amazon purchase history and change his vehicle registration.
His academic background in criminal justice and criminology provided a sense of planning and awareness of investigation techniques, but it did not translate to real-world experience. His methods—like turning off his phone and cleaning his vehicle—were used against him, revealing a lack of practical understanding of how investigations work.
His rapid departure and loss of vehicle control suggest he was overwhelmed by adrenaline and fear, not part of his initial plan. The reaction indicates panic and a lack of real-world experience, showing that the crime disrupted his carefully constructed plan and caused him to act impulsively.
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