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93. Profiling Bryan Kohberger – Part 1

from The Consult: Real FBI Profilers

53m 8s

93. Profiling Bryan Kohberger – Part 1

Brian Coburger’s 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students—Madison Mogan, Kayleigh Gonzalez, Zana Carnotal, and Ethan Chapin—were the result of a premeditated, meticulously planned attack, evidenced by his repeated surveillance of the victims’ home, purchase of a K-Bar knife, and attempts to erase digital trails. Despite his academic background in criminology and a detailed understanding of crime scene processing, Coburger made critical mistakes: he panicked during the escape, drove at excessive speed, and left behind the knife sheath, indicating a lack of real-world experience and emotional preparedness. The victim selection—focused on a predominantly female household—suggests a sexual or power-driven motive, even without overt sexual assault. His behavior, including the sudden confrontation with Zana and the killing of Ethan, reveals an attempt to maintain control over the situation, disrupted by unforeseen interactions. The case highlights a crucial distinction between theoretical knowledge and practical execution in criminal behavior. Coburger’s guilt stemmed from a combination of rational planning and emotional instability, showing that even organized offenders can be caught off-guard by real-time reactions. Ultimately, the episode emphasizes that behavioral analysis remains vital in understanding such crimes—offering insights into motive, risk, and prevention—despite the lack of definitive answers.

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Hi, this Chris Howard host of Plug They Were Chris Howard are you ready to play from exciting slots in classic table games of live deal Action, battle line brings the thrill of the casino wherever you are and with college NFL football bringing the excitement There's even more action. So head to battle line today Let me tell you something. I am a bomba's Superfan. I just went through all of my socks. You know the drawer organization that comes over you in the fall I got rid of every pair of socks because they were so worn out so gross I don't like wearing them, but guess what stayed my bomba socks They're the only ones that made the cut also they have new suede moccasins They're perfect for fall with cushy soles and cheerling lining and water resistance suede and their slippers are everything You'd want for a cozy night in made with the softest squishiest materials Then there's bombas compression sock collection. You know, I love those for my airplane rides specialized designs for travel every day Workout and recovery. There's a fatigue fighting pair for every moment Marino wool blend pairs dekeeping toes warm sweat wicking sport socks for fall race training and dressy styles for any fall weddings Bombas makes buttery and breathable underwear that feel like nothing under your clothes plus t-shirts that feel so soft and fit Just right and the best part about bombas for every item you purchase They donate an essential clothing item to someone facing housing insecurity one purchase equals one donated head over to bombas.com/audio And use code audio for 20% of your first purchase. That's b-o-n-b-a-s dot com slash audio code audio at checkout In the consult we discuss cases involving violence sexual violence abduction and murder Sometimes the cases we discuss involve children Listener discretion is advised You Welcome to the consult. I'm Julia Cowley retired FBI agent and profiler and I'm joined by my colleagues Angela Cercer Susan Kossler Drew and Bob Drew Angela Susan Bob and I worked together in the FBI's behavioral analysis unit and today We're going to take a behavioral look at a very disturbing and widely followed case in recent memory The murders of four university of Idaho students and the man convicted of committing them. On November 13th of 2022 Madison Mogan Kayleigh Gonzalez Zana Carnotal and Ethan Chapin were brutally murdered in an off-campus home in Moscow, Idaho The case was shocking not only because of the level of violence But also because of the mystery surrounding the offender and the apparent lack of motive On July 2nd of 2025, so just a couple days ago Although in this episode comes out it will have been two weeks since Brian Coburger pleaded guilty To four counts of murder and one count of burglary Coburger will serve four consecutive life sentences Plus 10 years for the burglary with this deal He waved the right to an appeal or to seek any leniency So in this episode, we're going to be trying to explore some of the remaining questions around this case It's just going to be a discussion. I don't know if we're going to be able to answer these questions These are very complicated complex types of cases I don't think we ever will have all the answers If somebody does please email me and come do the show with me But we want to talk about things such as what was his motive? Was he targeting someone specific? What do we think about that? Would he have killed again? And if he would, when? How do we classify him? Was he a serial killer, a mass murderer or something else? What role did his background in criminology play? Was he trying to outsmart investigators? Did it give him the upper hand in committing a crime like this? And why did he plead guilty? Especially given reports that he admired someone like Ted Bundy Who famously represented himself in court So we'll talk about these things In addition to some potential early warning signs in Coburger's life Things like bullying, social isolation or control And the mistakes that he ultimately made that led to his arrest And why did he make those mistakes? Before I begin a summary of the crime itself I want to remind you that if you'd like to support our show And get access to early and ad-free episodes You can go to patreon.com/theconsaultpod And if you're looking to connect with other listeners You can check out the unsubs Facebook fan page That was created by fans, for fans of the console And it's a great place for a thoughtful discussion around the cases we cover And other true crime topics So what I want to do is I want to go through a brief overview of the crime itself and the timeline And I am taking this almost directly from the change of plea hearing on July 2nd And this was the outline that the prosecutor presented in court And that Brian Coburger agreed to and pleaded guilty to this The prosecutor started out with some information that occurred pre-attack So in March of 2022 Coburger purchased a large fixed-blade K-Bar brand knife and leather sheath On Amazon using an Amazon gift card he purchased shortly before purchasing the knife and sheath At the end of June 2022 Coburger moved to Pullman Washington from his home state of Pennsylvania To pursue his PhD in the criminal justice and criminology program at Washington State University Beginning on July 9th of 2022 Through November 7th of 2022 Coburger's cell phone began connecting to a cell tower that covers the area of 1122 King Road in Moscow, Idaho 1122 King Road is the address where the victims resided and where they were murdered Coburger's cell phone was in this area between the hours of 10 pm and 4 am on 23 occasions And there's no direct evidence that Coburger ever had contact with 1122 King Road or its residence On November 13th of 2022 this is the date of the murder In the early morning hours Coburger's cell phone left his apartment in Pullman, Washington His phone was turned off at 2.54 am and it was turned back on at 4.48 am At approximately 3.02 am Coburger's vehicle entered Moscow, Idaho From surveillance video starting around 3.30 am Coburger's vehicle was circling the area of 1122 King Road he is seen in the immediate area and then leaves several times at approximately 4.05 am Coburger entered the area again he left and stopped at the intersection of King and Queen Road He turned around he came back and he parked behind and above 1122 King Road Brian Coburger then entered the back of the residence through a sliding kitchen door He first climbed to the 3rd floor where Madison, Mogan, and Kaylegan's Alvis were sleeping and he fatally stabbed them a knife sheath that he left behind was found beside Madison's body and it contained both victims blood as well as male DNA Either as he was coming back downstairs to the 2nd floor or he was leaving Coburger crossed paths with Zanna Kernotal who had just received a door dash order and he stabbed her He then stabbed Ethan Chapin who was described as sleeping in the bed Each victim suffered multiple wounds and the prosecution said that there was no evidence of sexual assault and no sexual component Two other roommates survived by hiding with one reporting having seen a masked intruder dressed all in black with his face covered she noted that he had bushy eyebrows well she saw him on the 2nd floor it's reported that he exited quickly through the same back sliding door that he entered through and surveillance video captured his car at approximately 4.20am speeding away from the scene and he's going so fast that it appears he almost loses control of his vehicle now post attack the prosecution believed Coburger drove back roads back to Pullman because his vehicle was not seen on any surveillance videos from main highways at approximately 4.48am Coburger's phone was turned back on and from there his phone tracks back to Pullman where he lived beginning at approximately 5.26am Coburger's vehicle was seen on various cameras in Pullman at approximately 5.30am Coburger arrived back at his apartment at approximately 9am Coburger's phone hit on a cell tower in the area of 1122 King Road he was there for about 10 minutes and then he returned to his apartment in Pullman. Shortly thereafter, Coburger took a selfie, giving the thumbs up, and this appears to be in his bathroom mirror, and this photo was recovered from his phone. Coburger's vehicle was then seen at various businesses in the Louiston Clarkston Valley, which is approximately 30 miles south. And following the murders, business records showed Coburger began searching for a k-bar knife and sheath. Records showed that he attempted to delete or alter his Amazon purchase history transactions. Later in the week, Coburger went to the DMV, the Department of Motor Vehicles, in Pullman to change his car registration from Pennsylvania to Washington. The prosecution noted that Pennsylvania does not require a front license plate and surveillance video showed that the car involved in this crime did not have one. Coburger then finished the semester at Washington State University and returned to Pennsylvania with his father for the holidays. A trash pool at his home in Pennsylvania, done by investigators, recovered a Q-tip which was determined to be from the father of the person whose DNA was left on the knife sheath found next to Madison's body. Coburger's apartment and office were also searched and described by the prosecutor as "spartan would be a kind characterization. There was virtually nothing there. They found nothing of evidentiary value in searching these two locations tied to Coburger. Coburger's vehicle was also meticulously cleaned. It was described as spotless and it was noted that in his studies as an undergraduate, Coburger wrote a detailed paper on crime scene processing. And while the murder weapon was not recovered and has not been recovered to this day, Brian Coburger was arrested on December 30th of 2022 at his parents' home in Pennsylvania. He was extradited to Idaho, charged with the four counts of first-degree murder and one count of burglary. And as I mentioned, he pleaded guilty just recently, July 2nd, 2025. That was an exchange for four consecutive life sentences without parole and a 10-year burglary term, thus avoiding the death penalty. Any observations, I think the first observation is just from the first thing the prosecutor mentioned was the purchase of the K-bar knife in March of 2022. Right then, we suspect that is premeditation. A very least premeditation of an act of murder. I don't know if it was planned at this location at this time, etc. But he has a general plan or a general intention to commit a murder. And now he has purchased himself means to do that with. I would agree with that that he may not know because he hasn't been out there yet, but he is at least thinking about and fantasizing about committing a murder with a knife. choice of weapon knife is supposed to a gun knives are much more personal, especially that a dagger type is going to require him to get close to his victims. There's a lot here that reflects an organized plan at least in the commission and that their blitz style attacks quick and efficient. He presumably avoided security cameras leaving the murder location. He shut his phone off. Also, after the crime, he cleans his car and apartment, presumably discards or cleans whatever he was wearing at the time, changes his registration plate from Pennsylvania to Washington, at least partially because of what you mentioned about the no front plate required in Pennsylvania, but there is a front plate requirement in Washington. He also tries to erase his Amazon history, which contains the incriminating purchase of the first K bar knife. He also tries to buy a second K bar knife because if in worst case scenario in his book, he is looked at for this murder, he can produce a K bar knife and say, yes, I did buy this. I'm not hiding anything here it is and there would be absolutely no evidence connecting that knife to the murders and he discards the initial K bar knife and to this day it has not been found. So all of which also his phone pinged on what 23 separate occasions from July until November in the area of the murder location and as far as anyone knows, he had no other reason to be in that area except to be close to the victim's residence. So presumably he was performing some type of surveillance on those numerous occasions. All of this says premeditation, planning, organization, as opposed to impulsive spur of the moment and opportunistic. We're dealing with an offender who is rational and careful and planned. My one thing that I wanted to add is that I feel that he perceived that he was organized in his mind to level of confidence because if you look at the fact that he ordered the murder weapon on Amazon, somebody with a history of criminal justice courses and getting a PhD and that writes a paper about forensics, you would think that that particular person would find a different way to purchase a knife or to locate a knife. I mean there are plenty of shows you can go to gun and knife shows where nobody will know that you purchased it but he had some level of confidence and maybe even cockiness that he was ahead of the game because he could overtly do that online after the fact and after he I'm assuming erroneously left the knife sheath at the scene. Now he's trying to backtrack and erase that because he realizes he made a mistake and also on the news there were video cameras that captured his vehicle in the area. The news reported that there was no front plate on his vehicle so he went and got a Washington state license plate so that he would have a plate on the front of his vehicle assuming that is to try to throw people off that it wasn't him in the vehicle and then he makes the effort to purchase a new k-bar knife and to erase his purchase from Amazon. So to me that is sloppy that is something he should have thought of ahead of time if he were truly as organized as he seemed to think he was. Now the whole thing about leaving the sheath of the knife at the scene is a different animal because to me it shows that perhaps he even though he appeared to be very collected at the scene like Bob said he went in he had his plan he executed his plan potentially ran into Dana he addressed that situation and then left the residence hurriedly but there was some level of organization and calm and collectedness during that but as many have reported before so this is probably not new to listeners. If you haven't committed a crime it's a lot different actually doing it then researching it and coming up with a plan in your mind and once you get to the actual act of committing the crime there's adrenaline there's a lot going on there's blood there's a lot going on that you're not going to experience when you're in the planning process and so him leaving the sheath there is not surprising if it says first time doing this because in the middle of it you're going to forget certain steps. I think by characterizing this as organized I think you make a good point Angela in that organized to the extent of your abilities now granted being exposed to to the curriculum that he had been exposed to in psychology and crime scene processing etc you might expect that he would have retained more of that and applied that in his organization. I think by organized what we're saying is we're differentiating between impulsive and planned and some rationale guiding his actions and I agree with you there's a lot of novice mistakes leaving behind one of your one of your possessions is certainly sloppy and leaving behind the sheath that encased the murder weapon is particularly sloppy but again and Angela I concur with you entirely is there are always perfect plans on paper but not even just murder but any crime never goes according to that perfect plan on paper something always screws up and therefore mistakes are made you're not ever as smart as you think you are and so things you should have thought of you don't and then even if you had a perfect rational approach anything that surprises you anything that shocks you just the level of adrenaline can make you depart from those plans pretty quickly and unexpectedly. Ever notice how life's best stories don't happen in your living room? 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He won't know what that feels like until he does it for the first time. And then he's got to deal with whatever it is he experiences when he deals with that. And he may have planned on it feeling one way and it felt something else or it was more difficult, you just can't because you've never been there before. He's not only executing what he's planned for, but simultaneously and at the same time, he is experiencing for the first time what it feels like to do that. And that really opens you up to possible, as Angela has already pointed out, making mistakes, having to rethink something that didn't go exactly as I plan. Now I feel like this, now what am I going to do? And it's all a big jumble. It's not only the excitement, but I think everything else that might go into feeling that entire experience for the first time. And if you're not prepared for it in entirety, if you think, okay, I've thought this all through, I should be fine if you're not prepared for that. And then, you know, the unexpected happens like someone gets a door dash delivery at four o'clock in the morning. You can start making some mistakes or it'd be easy to make a mistake. Well, evidence of the fact that he was rattled and I'm, you know, to just abandon any clinical here for a minute. He was rattled by the commission of this crime. And one of the things that is very tell tale is his exit from the scene. He drives almost to the point where he loses control. This wouldn't be in anyone's rational plan to fleeing a crime scene. You would stay in control of that vehicle. You'd probably stay within 10 miles of illegal limit per hour because you don't want to be pulled over. You don't want attention drawn to your vehicle. You certainly don't want to get into a collision or lose control of your vehicle and have it go off the road and be inoperable. But again, what we're seeing is the reflection of the fact that he is affected by adrenaline, fear, exhilaration, fill in the blank, anything that is emotional and has a corresponding neurological chemical response within your body. You're seeing that. I mean, I'm sure it was not part of his plan to drive away and draw attention to himself as he departs the scene. That's just one quick example of someone who put together a plan and is making in advisable mistakes as he's completing the plan. It could also be one of the reasons why he leaves two live victims in that house, especially when he has a very close encounter with one of them close enough where she can see that he has bushy eyebrows and give a description of what he was wearing. And why after he killed one person that he has an encounter with at the hallway and then goes by another potential victim, we haven't discussed all of that, but this could be one of the factors, if he was feeling out of control at that point or feeling rushed or having dealt possibly with one victim that he hadn't planned on, that all of that could be wrapped up into why he was more focused on getting out of the home than potentially eliminating another victim or a witness. I think his, you know, this goes to one of our questions, this whole conversation that I wanted us to discuss was what rolled it his background in criminology play. Certainly he was evidence conscious and he took a lot of steps and I think a lot of times he will think, well, if we talk about law enforcement techniques or profiling or criminal profiling, the offenders learn and they learn how to get better, but as we see some of the steps that he took to try to execute his plan actually ended up being used as evidence against him, it backfired in some ways. And what you see is you see somebody who has a little bit of knowledge of how investigations work, how forensics work, but he's never actually done the work. And until you do work, you really can't plan for everything. You think you've thought of it on my phone and I'm not going to leave DNA, but he didn't think of all the different things investigators can do, they can get surveillance cameras, they have, they can track his cell phone, not just on that night, but in the months leading up to this event, they can see all his online activity, all these things and that goes to Angela's point that just that goes to his inexperience in investigation. You can study all you want, but until you actually do it, and successfully do it, you're not going to think of everything and that just is what this shows to me. So yes, his background in criminology was helpful in some regards, but a lot of that ended up being used against him, but then it also showed just his lack of experience and how these investigations really work. And he was caught, this case didn't go cold. He got caught and I think he got caught pretty quickly, having no known connection that anyone can say to these victims, I mean, that was one thing he did do as well, he seemed to choose victims. He didn't have a known connection to or that other people didn't know about. And that made it a little bit less of a risk, lowered his risk. That's one thing that he did as far as if he had thought that through. He were talking about how his beginner knowledge of forensics or criminal justice, you've said many times, the difference between educational knowledge and practical knowledge can be significant. The educational part of it can certainly be instructive and informative, but real world application is another thing entirely. Still, it is surprising to me that given his level of academia, he did not realize that there are issues with even having your phone anywhere near where you're going to go at any point during surveillance, that's the surprising thing to me. And maybe I'm just imposing my experience with law enforcement on him. It seems like a rookie mistake, I agree with you. He should know better. It really just goes back to what I think a couple of things and we talk about this with a lot of offenders. His arrogance, he thinks he's smarter than everybody else. We'll talk a little bit about his history and background, but he clearly thinks he's smarter. He thought, I do believe he thought he could outsmart the police and then just his lack of real world understanding of how investigations work. Yes, you can turn off your phone, yes, you can clean your car. You can do all these things, but he just missed some big ticket items that led to his identification and to me that just spoke to his inexperience and his grandiosity, his immaturity. I mean, he was fixated on the planning and not the aftermath. He had no contingency plans in place and I know he apparently did well in his courses as an undergraduate and he was getting a PhD, but I think he lacks intelligence. I think that being book smart and having wisdom are two different things and he completely lacks wisdom, he's almost delusional. How many times you watch on TV and then I will stop belaboring this point, but there are surveillance cameras everywhere. I couldn't even fathom trying to plan a murder where you're going to get away with it. The one thing that he maybe started off with and I don't know if he did this purposely was picking people that he was not associated with. That's something that would not put him as a red flag of somebody that they would investigate. But other than that, there were a lot of mistakes that seemed like he should have been able to figure out ahead of time everywhere there are cameras. Right. And back to Bob's point about leaving the way that he did because likely some things didn't go according to plan and adrenaline kicked in. If there was any question, I mean, I don't think there was a lot of question based on how many times his car was caught on that surveillance camera that early morning back and forth, back and forth many times. But if there was any question that that car was the car involved in the crime, that notion was largely dispelled and supports a profile of someone in panic with no real world experience. Since you mentioned it, Julia, what do you just thoughts on? this circling several times. So, you know, in the leaving and coming back, is he deciding whether or not it's a good night? Had he committed and then he's having second thoughts? Is he checking and double checking? Does he see someone come and go from the residence? I'm just, that's an awful lot of time to spend in that area, especially with all the surveillance that he had done beforehand. And he leaves, he stops at an intersection, does he return and finally comes back in parks? Yeah, probably all of the above. I think he made the decision to kill that night. I think that decision he'd made because he turned off his phone. He had the weapon and this was the final moment before crossing a massive threshold. And the circling strongly suggests hesitation, possibly in decision. Maybe he wasn't as confident as he thought he'd be. And he could have been watching for signs of movement or lights, waiting for everyone to go to sleep. And maybe he only had a vague internal script of what would actually happen once he got into the house, which kind of aligns with his behavior after the murders, you know, making a series of sloppy cover-up moves. Everything you mentioned, Susan, was probably going through his head. I mean, I think he was gonna commit a murder. I don't think there was any doubt in his mind he wanted to. I think at least by March and probably long before he had been planning something or fantasizing about doing something like this. Now, I don't know the prosecutor pointed out this. They were not saying that they believed he intended to kill all four people. And I know Bob, you had some thoughts on that. Yeah, I think we're saying this guy is planned and organized. And we know that he's been in that area over 20 times prior to the night of the murder or early morning of the murder, I should say. And one thing that makes no rational sense, if you're trying to be careful and there is no other valued aspect that you're trying to address. In other words, if these are just people one through six and you don't care which one or which ones you murder, you're just going into this house and you're murdering the most convenient victims. And you're leaving yourself the most opportunity to avoid apprehension and to escape that scene when all is said and done. It flies in the face of such a plan to start on the third floor, entering on the second floor, which he did, you would think that you would then find someone sleeping on the second floor and begin there, at least begin there. If not begin and end there, there happen to be two people on that floor, so you murder those two people and then you exit. Instead, Coburger climbs up a flight of stairs to the third floor. Now this is a place that is not the easiest entrance and exit point of the house. And potentially it's problematic to exit the house from the third floor, but he does that and that makes me think that he prioritized the third floor based on prior observations when he was performing surveillance on that residence. For instance, someone enters the home, he sees them walk in, he sees a light go on the third floor and that's someone he's interested in murder. In this case, he climbs past two people who were sleeping or at least within a room on the second floor, taking a chance on them seeing him and goes up to the third floor, commits two murders there. And then now he's confronted with Zanna in the hallway. I think this is unplanned on his part and when confronted with someone who's standing right in front of him, we don't know what that interaction was prior to him deciding he needed to murder her too, which he then goes about doing. Then goes into her room and kills the male victim. Her boyfriend who was sleeping. I think this is an alteration of the initial plan. Yeah, I think he went in and I think he was, you know, regardless of how many people were on the third floor, I think his plan included killing people on the third floor. I think when he is confronted with this situation on the second floor, he altars his plan and kills two more people. Now he's seen by someone, but he may or may not have been aware that he probably was, but it wasn't something blocking him. It wasn't something someone confronting him. It's someone who saw him quickly and disappeared. To salvage his plan, he needs to get moving because he's already spent more time and engaged in more activity at that scene than was probably initially planned. Unless it's absolutely necessary, he needs to get out of there. Unless something is absolutely imperative that he do at that scene, after killing the fourth person, he needs to leave. And so he does. But this goes to show you this is part of an event not going to plan confronting the murderer with circumstances he did not anticipate and him trying to salvage his plan. And I know we'll talk about this when we talk a little bit more about him, how people describe him. But when you look at his history of surveillance in that area or his phone being in that area, it's between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m. So he's already passed the time he likely wanted to be in that house. I don't think he necessarily wanted to be in there after 4 a.m. So when you talk about, you think he went in and this was going to be quick. And then he was going to get out, ran into some unforeseen circumstances. So he had to get out even more quickly than he had anticipated. And this kind of goes to motive and what we think he was trying to accomplish. But I do agree. I think he just went there to commit a murder, to commit it very quickly. Because if you are applying your knowledge of forensics, you know, the longer I stay there, the more evidence I may leave behind. And so I do think his original plan was to get in and out, kill on the third floor and get out as quickly as possible. Because he was already passed, I think, the time he was comfortable being there in terms of, I don't think he wanted to be there much past 4 a.m. since he wasn't doing surveillance much past 4 a.m. and he seems to be a pretty regimented person. So I agree with that. - Support for this podcast comes from Progressive. America's number one motorcycle insure. Did you know writers who switch and save with Progressive save nearly $200 per year? That's a whole new pair of writing gloves and more. Quote today. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. National average 12 months savings of $197 by new customer surveyed who saved with Progressive between October 2024 and September 2025. Potential savings will vary. - And this also kind of brings up the point that if his plan was, as we're discussing and we believe, to go in and quickly murder whoever was on the third floor in this case, two people. - I think it is important. I think he knew there were women there. Sorry to interrupt you, but I think that he, I think that's important. - Yeah, if that was his plan, then what his plan was not. And I know this comes up as far as a male and during a mostly female dwelling, was he there to rape and murder? My answer would be no. I'm not saying that there wasn't some underlying sexual influence regarding his motive, but I do not believe he was there to commit sexual assault and then murder. I think he was there to commit quick and efficient murders and exit. - A perfect murder. - Yes. - He was there to commit a perfect murder in his mind. And whether that had a sexual component, well, we're getting there. I think I agree with Susan, victim selection, extremely important. He knew women or a woman was there. - You know, he's confronted with Zana, who just ordered and got her food delivered. So I know Bob was talking about the fact that, and everybody's talking about the fact that he's got a timeframe and he wants to get out of there. And I totally agree with that. Do you think also though that he murdered Zana because she interfered with his level of control, whereas because in his background, he seems like he wants to have control of everything. Like we were talking about before we got online, you know, eating disorders, OCD, or obsessive compulsive disorder potentially, those kind of things are based on needing to have control of something. He seems like a person that needs to be in control. He's in control of his situation. He's just killed two people and he was in control of that. He would encounter somebody that he'd not expect to see. She somehow maybe has a reaction that takes control away from him. Maybe she verbally says something. Maybe she pushes him, who knows? Something happens that he decides I gotta kill her because she is, I'm no longer in control. Then he gets down the stairs and one of my questions is, why does he kill the boyfriend who reportedly, per the prosecutor, was asleep in his bed? I perceive that as meaning he's laying in his bed. He has not gotten up and addressed. co-berger. Why would he decide to go in and kill him? I don't know if we know exactly where Zana confronted him. Like was it in the stairway? Was it in the hallway? Was it up on the third floor when he was killing Maddie and Kaylee? And he was interrupted, and that's why he dropped the sheath. We just don't know those details, but I would agree like there's control, but there's also practical aspect witness elimination. She's right there right in front of him very likely because she's up. She's awake. She's heard what's happened. So she's a witness. And then we don't know either. Did Ethan stir? Did he sit up? Did something make him also believe he needed to kill Ethan because he was also going to be a witness? Or to your point, Angela, it's like, well, there's another victim there. I have time. I'm going to go in there and kill him too to exert my complete control over all four of these victims. It could very well be a combination. I think control, as we see time and time and time again in these cases that we look at in serial murderers, and we'll talk about whether this is mass murder, serial murder differences in our impressions, but control is a main component in these crimes. Right. I mean, it's so difficult to do these without having all the details. Even something a nuance such as the surviving housemate that saw a coworker walking in the hall. Like Sue said, close enough to see his bushy eyebrows. I don't know. I haven't seen reliable reporting that he actually saw her. And if that's the case, why did he leave her? He's just killed two other people that witnessed. He's walking out the door. Maybe he didn't see her. Besides that, the only other thing I can think of is that she's not posing a threat. She is just peeking out the door. I agree with what you're saying, Angela, and the other component is by that time, is he aware of the time and just realizes he's got a face covering on. So just realizes he's got to go at that point. And it's still about control. Yes. He has the victim that he came face to face with. He eliminated. There's a witness. He goes in, probably wondering if anyone else is awake and has seen anything. Finds the boyfriend, maybe asleep, maybe just stirring, maybe actually awake. But decides while I'm here, I'm taking care of this too. But he is still trying to adhere to this plan. And that has everything to do with his feeling of control of the situation. He needs to get back on track in order to feel that comfort of all the planning and all the preparation that he's done. He doesn't want to throw it out the door and say, well, there's been one variation on the theme here. I might as well just change my whole plan midstream. That's not who this guy is. So he gets back on the track of his plan and he exits. Even this variation, not to mention all the unanticipated and jarring stimulation that he's received in actual commission. All of this is displayed in how he leaves. And he leaves at an inadvisable rate of speed and literally not entirely in control of his vehicle. That has nothing to do with this plan and everything to do with his reaction to what's occurred and to maybe some of the unanticipated parts of what has occurred. Well, at that point, you're talking about three unanticipated events. If his plan was to kill the two girls on the third floor, he encounters Zanna unexpectedly. I would assume, and I didn't read this anywhere, but I would assume that Ethan made some kind of noise or stir or something that made him believe that he was capable of coming out and confronting him. So he killed Ethan. So that's two people. And now you have a third peering out the door at you. You've got to get out of there. Things are going out of his control. So he has to move just like you were saying. The whole thing from the timeline that we're aware of is 15 minutes. But as far as risk level of apprehension, every one of those minutes is increasing his chance of being apprehended. And now he's 15 minutes, as Julia pointed out earlier, has that time that his timeline of comfort because his surveillance time usually ended at 4 a.m. Another reason for it's possible why he was ending his surveillance is then he's starting to lose cover of darkness. One thing we didn't touch on is comment that the witness heard. Julia was that something that was verified? Yes, I think it's in the probable cause. Affa David, the witness heard him say something like it's okay. I'm here to help or yes, it's okay. I'm here to help. She heard him say that and so that was likely to Zanna or Ethan. In any event, it was a way for him to mitigate the necessity of immediate action on the part of one of the victims. Catch him off guard. Catch him off guard. Control there coming up with something to mitigate here. Yeah, I mean, it shows that he wasn't thinking completely or rationally. He's thinking rationally. What do I need to say in this situation to decrease my risk and to make these people let their guard down just a bit? Even for a split second, it's okay. I'm here to help. Split second, they let their guard down. However brief it may be, to me, it shows rationality. And I do want to talk before we get to him specifically, I just want to talk about motive because that has been discussed and people have said there is no motive. And I think there's a couple of things going on. I do believe that there's a sexual component to this and a need for control and power. And I think it's all wrapped up together. But when I look at the victim selection and the fact that he enters a home burglary, we know there's a correlation between sexual crimes and burglary. And as we know, and we've talked about this with other offenders, when you see burglaries that don't make a lot of sense that they're not committed for financial gain, you see things moved around or you see things that are taken that don't have a lot of value or you see concentration on certain specific items in the home such as underwear, lingerie, or shoes. That's when we start to look at this very maladaptive behavior at a burglary scene and you have to think that it's possibly sexually motivated. A lot of times I think people just miss that burglary can be sexually motivated and I think this was a sexually motivated crime in that he picked female victim in terms of behavior. There's nothing more maladaptive than murder. This crime has a lot of the hallmarks of a sexually motivated homicide. You have the pre-crime fixation and stalking, the victim selection, an intimate high-risk method of killing, using a knife, entering a personal residence at night and there are indicators of control, domination, and likely this was motivated by a fantasy. So he could very well fulfill some sort of sexual or emotional need without an overt sexual act. Also, if he did the surveillance and that's how he determined or selected his victims, he knew that that house was primarily a residence of multiple females. He could have picked another place that had all men in it and I guess maybe if your goal was completely non-sexual it had no consideration of gender, then arguably he would feel more powerful perhaps if he murdered male victims. But he chose and he selected any returned numerous times to gain information about this, this place and this place happened to be the residence of multiple females. So I think that in bed during the time too, you know, we have to say there is some consideration on his part, whether it be just in victim selection, but there has to be some consideration of gender here and he selected one could argue that if you have no real connection with any of them and to our knowledge he did not, then he could have selected a mix of male and female residents, he could have selected anyone, but he selected a residence where it was predominantly occupied by women. So I agree with you, Juliet, there is some preference for engaging in violence against women. And the sexual component of that, the lack of an overt sexual act of violence against the women as in molestation or rape or any other thing that he could have potentially inflicted on the women, it does not rule out having a sexual component to it because what that experience meant to him at the time as well as what reliving that experience, what type of reaction could that be? It could be potentially a sexual component to him reliving this experience many times over after the initial act. Good point, Susan. Well said, I want to wrap up part one of our discussion of the brutal murders. of Madison Mogan, Kayleigh Enzalvez, Zanna Kernodal, and Ethan Chapin. And today we walked through the facts of the crime and discussed what they reveal about Brian Cobrager and his possible motive and his intent. We're having these conversations because after pleading guilty, Cobrager wasn't required to explain his actions. He was only required to accept responsibility. So that leaves many questions unanswered and it's why careful behavioral analysis still matters. You're trying to understand this crime may help prevent others or solve others. Next time, we'll take a closer look at Cobrager's background and explore how his life experiences may have shaped who he became. If you'd like to support our show and get access to early and add free episodes, you can visit patreon.com/theconsolepod. And don't forget to join the conversation on our Facebook fan page called Unsubs. And it was created by fans for fans of the consult to discuss our episodes and other true crime topics. That's it for this episode of the consult. Thank you for listening. Music for the consult is composed by John Hanske. If you'd like to learn more about our show, you can visit our website www.truecrimeconsole.com. That's www.truecrimeconsole.com. You can also follow us on Twitter. Our handle is @theconsolepod. Thank you. Music for the consult. This summer, Pluto TV is exploding with thousands of free movies. Summer of cinema is here. Feel the explosive action all summer long with movies like Gladiator, Mission Impossible, Beverly Hills Cop, Good Burger, and Transformers Dark of the Moon. Bring the action with you and stream for free from all your favorite devices. 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Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Brian Coburger pleaded guilty to the 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students, admitting to premeditated, organized planning including purchasing a K-Bar knife and conducting repeated surveillance at the victim’s home.
  2. His actions—such as turning off his phone, cleaning his vehicle, altering his license plate, and attempting to erase Amazon purchase records—reveal a pattern of effort to evade detection, yet also significant lapses indicating inexperience and emotional vulnerability.
  3. The murders occurred in a structured, methodical sequence
  4. Despite academic training in criminology, Coburger failed to anticipate real-world investigative techniques, such as surveillance tracking and digital evidence, exposing a gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application.
  5. Victim selection appears gender-specific, targeting a home with primarily female occupants, suggesting a motive rooted in sexual fantasy or control, though no overt sexual assault occurred.
  6. His behavior—especially the hesitation, circling, and sudden escalation—points to internal conflict and a lack of full emotional preparedness, indicating that the crime deviated from a perfectly executed plan.
  7. The absence of a clear motive and the presence of control-driven behavior (e.g., eliminating witnesses, claiming to "help") suggest a need for dominance and power over victims, rather than pure financial or random violence.
  8. The case underscores the limitations of academic knowledge in predicting real-life criminal behavior, emphasizing that even well-planned crimes often fail due to unforeseen circumstances and human emotion.

Summary:

Brian Coburger’s 2022 murders of four University of Idaho students—Madison Mogan, Kayleigh Gonzalez, Zana Carnotal, and Ethan Chapin—were the result of a premeditated, meticulously planned attack, evidenced by his repeated surveillance of the victims’ home, purchase of a K-Bar knife, and attempts to erase digital trails. Despite his academic background in criminology and a detailed understanding of crime scene processing, Coburger made critical mistakes: he panicked during the escape, drove at excessive speed, and left behind the knife sheath, indicating a lack of real-world experience and emotional preparedness. The victim selection—focused on a predominantly female household—suggests a sexual or power-driven motive, even without overt sexual assault.

His behavior, including the sudden confrontation with Zana and the killing of Ethan, reveals an attempt to maintain control over the situation, disrupted by unforeseen interactions. The case highlights a crucial distinction between theoretical knowledge and practical execution in criminal behavior. Coburger’s guilt stemmed from a combination of rational planning and emotional instability, showing that even organized offenders can be caught off-guard by real-time reactions.

Ultimately, the episode emphasizes that behavioral analysis remains vital in understanding such crimes—offering insights into motive, risk, and prevention—despite the lack of definitive answers.

FAQs

The case suggests a combination of sexual motivation, a need for control, and a desire to commit a 'perfect' murder. He showed a pattern of selecting a female-dominated residence, indicating a possible sexual component, though no overt sexual assault occurred. His behavior suggests a need for control and domination over the victims.

The evidence points to a mass murder, not a serial one. He committed the killings in a single incident over a short period, targeting four victims in one residence. There is no indication of a pattern over time or across multiple locations, which would define a serial killer.

He conducted extensive surveillance of the residence for months, purchasing a K-Bar knife in March 2022 and visiting the area 23 times between July and November 2022. He entered the home at night, killed the victims in a planned, efficient sequence, and left the murder weapon at the scene before fleeing.

Yes, he left behind the K-Bar knife sheath near Madison's body, which contained both victims' blood and male DNA. Additionally, surveillance footage captured his vehicle circling the area, and he later tried to erase his Amazon purchase history and change his vehicle registration.

His academic background in criminal justice and criminology provided a sense of planning and awareness of investigation techniques, but it did not translate to real-world experience. His methods—like turning off his phone and cleaning his vehicle—were used against him, revealing a lack of practical understanding of how investigations work.

His rapid departure and loss of vehicle control suggest he was overwhelmed by adrenaline and fear, not part of his initial plan. The reaction indicates panic and a lack of real-world experience, showing that the crime disrupted his carefully constructed plan and caused him to act impulsively.

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