Production Profiles + Creating a Prospect Process - Dynasty Fantasy Football
64m 26s
The podcast discusses the evolving landscape of rookie scouting in fantasy football, emphasizing the importance of filtering out noise such as exaggerated headlines, character concerns, or misleading combine stats. The focus shifts to production profiles—specifically target share, rushing yards, touchdowns, and receiving efficiency—as the most reliable indicators of fantasy value. The current class of rookies is seen as deep and competitive, particularly at the running back and wide receiver positions, where several players exhibit strong, consistent production. However, red flags emerge for those with low rushing yard shares, limited college experience, or inconsistent performance. Notable names like Emmett Johnson, McCoy Lemon, and Jeremiah Love are highlighted for their balanced stats and potential in the NFL, while others like Judarian Price face scrutiny due to weak production metrics. The analysis also stresses the need to ignore college-reported weights and sizes until verified by official combine data. Ultimately, the draft process remains dynamic, with rankings evolving as new information surfaces. The hosts caution against over-reliance on early projections and emphasize the value of combining film analysis with analytics to form well-rounded evaluations. This balance allows for more accurate, adaptable decision-making in dynasty drafts.
[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footballer's dynasty podcast with Borg Betts in a Baller. [music] Welcome in! We are in February here on the Dynasty podcast. I'm your host Kyle Morganoni, and I'm joined by Mike Wright and Matthew Betts. February only means one thing Kyle. Rookies. I mean, that's what it means, right? Like this Sunday, I guess there's a game going on. Who cares, right? We don't care about Kyle over this betts, it's the big game, the big game. I did hear you guys reference that on the main show. Are you aware that the game, just the game, not the big game, but the game in College Football World is Ohio State, Michigan. Oh, that's the game? It's the nickname of the game, the game. Do they call it the game or do they go the like when they say Ohio State? No, they have the normal, the. But the big game was Cal and Stanford. I knew that growing up. That was the John L.A. game. And where, you know, Cal storms back and they get the lateral touchdown. The big game is that game. So is there any like copyright infringement there? We got our legal team on that. I mean, I don't know where they as clairvoyant, as like who'd wait? Who actually got three Pete? Someone like, was it Jackson? I thought there was like some weird Pat Riley might own it or something. I don't know. To get like, to get a three Pete as they're like to have the rights. No, like the three Pete is trademarked. Man, one of them got it. This is this. I don't know. Imagine this is good stuff. People are loving this banter. Well, at some point you get to be at a level in society where you get to trademark. Pretty much anything you want because people love you and adore you. And I think that's how people feel about rookies. And at this point, all of the rookies, everything I'm seeing out there, it's glorious. It's wonderful. Everything is great about this class. Oh, Kyle. Kyle. Because we already entered the, this class isn't that great. Now we're in the spot where everyone goes, well, maybe it's not as bad as you think. And so now I'm seeing you. Oh, okay. I see what you're saying. Yeah, yeah. Just wait, Kyle. Just wait in about, what is it? It's early February. I would give it about three or four weeks. Just wait 'til the, I mean, this guy does even love football. Can he even be drafted this year? Doesn't really watch the tape. So, yeah, there's, it's so funny that I was in flows. It's like every drafts exactly you can put in pen. Some sort of character concern coming up. I don't know. Man scouts are higher than you think on this quarterback. He might sneak in the back of the, of the first round. It's just, it's so funny how it's like the same thing every year. But I love it. It draft season is so fun, man. And being able to kind of just take it all in and, you know, filter it all as, is a skill, I think, but really fun. You guys saw the quote, because I think it went in our, in our company slack of, they were, I don't remember the player, but it was like, apparently the, like, the dad or whatever of the player. Oh, Tyson. Was that what it was? Yeah. Yeah. So everything that he has heard is all the GMs and scouts have them as a first round grade. And then it's like, but all the GMs that I've talked to have been not even close to a first round. Great. It's like, like, man, these kids and they're just getting lied to. I mean, we don't know how the whole, should or sanders process went. But we know that almost every single mock draft in existence had him going at least in the first round. And not where he, he went the fifth, fourth or the fifth, fifth. And it's like, what? Something happened along the way of, you don't go, you don't leave the college right now. If you're like, eh, you're going to be a fifth rounder. Should or would be making more money, how he stayed in college. He probably be happier with his life and where he is compared to where he is now, but like that it's so weird, the disconnect of the information that these people are given. But imagine the value of the team God of selecting a pro baller in the fifth round. Yeah. And they technically, I don't know if you saw there, I did. There were two pro ball quarterbacks from that team this year. Flacco. I mean, Stephansky. I know. He's inspired with when he had two pro ball quarterbacks on the roster. I mean, that's unheard of. And then getting hired. I mean, that is the stat I want to share with people. This guy, this guy developed pro ball quarterbacks despite having like four or five wins. That's impressive. Like that in itself is really hard to do. Man. What happened to the game? We love. I mean, I don't know. What is the point of the pro ball anymore? We're being totally honest. No one knows. I think it's fine to recognize the best players in the league, obviously. But like at this point, don't even, don't even bother doing anything on the field because it's just not, it's not serious. I remember as a child, when I played Madden, the pro ball rosters were a very big deal and a big part of the game in a part of like was a big deal when we were young. Yes. Yeah. If you want to go look for like 90s photos of the pro ball, everyone's wearing their bucket hats. Like it was cool stuff. You got on Taylor. Oh, brother, that hit in the pro ball. You know what I'm talking about? Oh, yeah. On the Hunter. Yeah. They don't play it the way they used to. No, it's very different. We are a couple of days away as we mentioned from the big game in this Sunday. If you want to watch the game, props to you. What will be out when I can't promise you is that if you want to pre-order the U.K. The first release of the Dynasty pass will be open. Did you say props to you like you're not going to watch the Super Bowl? I'm trying to make sure that the part that's most important gets. Okay. All right. It was weird. Sounded weird. My wife did ask about she goes, wait, there's no, like this past week and she didn't understand why there was no football. She's like, I kind of missed it because it's just background noise and she usually takes an app or something. And then I was explaining it's, you know, it's this Sunday. That's her, that's her soothing white notes. Oh, for sure. She like, she can easily fall asleep to any football game. It's very, very easy. And then this Sunday we have one coming up and she goes, Oh, I had no idea. Like no clue of the calendar. What's going on? Not a big deal. But the Dynasty pass will be released in its first iteration, first we'll release before the combine, after the combine and then after the NFL draft. But our team is hard at work. If you want to go to ultimatedraftkit.com, you can get everything we have. All the production profiles are rookie mock, which by the way, I am on the clock currently for our mock that will be released. All the opportunities, everything else that you can see, the contracts for every single team, it's there in the Dynasty pass. Anything you want to say real quick, Mike about the Dynasty pass. Just the Dynasty pass, we make it hopefully as simple as possible for you to get into the, you know, to get the information you need to know about these, these prospects, you know, we can, you can get bogged down a little bit too much with too much information about these guys, but we're giving you the information that we have right now. So what we're using it to base our opinions off of and then those opinions evolve and change because next, not next month, but combines like late, late February, whatever, about a month or so, there will be another update because we will have risers and followers from the NFL combine where someone will run really, really fast and all the sudden they'll just be a first round pick and we will come on here and we will say they should not be guys look at this, look at this stuff that don't, don't fall for it. Been crushing that two years in a row of speedy man, the speedy guys at the, at the combine shooting up into the first round. But then of course, after the NFL draft, that's when stuff really changes and the, and the rookie rankings will be a little bit more secure because then we'll be telling you exactly if I'm in a draft, this is how I'll, I'll likely be drafted in these guys. Yep. The other thing with the, a dynasty past this weekend, um, cracking from wrong, Mike, we'll have initial for this version of this offseason startup ranks in their correct as well as the dynasty started ranks, uh, those have been, uh, getting touched up and worked on this week by the three of us. Beautiful. Yep. UltimateDraftkit.com. Before we get into our main talking points today, we're going to talk about production profiles and some of the interesting names from this class. I did what I kind of zoom out and ask the question, what have you learned so far, or just over the last couple of years of doing this in the rookie scouting process. So we are moving from production profiles to, we'll start talking about film in the next couple of weeks. These, you know, we saw this game, this player played in this game, this really stood out to me. Then we'll start to match some potential draft capital. There's a process to it. So what is something you've learned doing this last couple of years that you think, hey, I want someone to understand this. So bets start us off. Yeah. Kind of jokingly brought it up at the start of the show, but I do think in all seriousness, like being able to drown out the noise over the next three months is a very important skill when it comes to what we're doing. Now there's a lot of things that it's easy to get stuck in the weeds on certain players
and it's very easy to get caught up in the hype of the latest headline from national reporters, agents, all the sort of things that you'll see. And what I mean by that is some of the stuff that comes out, and I jokingly said it like character concerns. Last year, remember it was Tederot McMillan, it's like, does this guy even love football? He doesn't love to watch tape, he doesn't watch film, eight overall picnics, right? - Here's this clip from years ago about who I'm talking about film. And make sure, if you're seeing anything, make sure you know that it's recent and not something that we were already passed. - For sure. And then like you talked about with the combine, right? Some of the stuff that we know over years of data doesn't really matter that much. NFL wide receiver, 40 time in and of itself, doesn't really matter. Yet Matthew Golden carried that impressive cultural playoff into the air quotes, 14940, and all of a sudden it was like, oh my goodness, how can we not get this guy, right? So being able to just like filter out the noisy stuff that happens over the next three months, I used to just follow every headline, I cared a lot about every headline. At the end of the day, 90% of that stuff doesn't matter at all. What matters is the stuff that is the hard and fast data, right? Like what we see in the production profile, profiles we'll talk about today, the NFL draft capital, some of your film takes, some of that stuff. And you know, like I joked about it every off season, we get the cycle of like this guy's going higher than you think, this guy's going lower than you think. His interview went great. He interviewed terribly. Like you just hear every end of everything for one of these prospects and really not getting stuck in that unimportant stuff. I do think is a skill when it comes to dynasty drafts and rankings and all that sort of stuff. And if you guys remember like even into the summer, we get some of this just honestly stupid stuff. Dramar Chase's rookie year. Do you guys recall the headlines of like, he's struggling with drops and camp because the NFL ball doesn't have the white lines on it. Yes, guys, you know, what are we doing? Like, so being able to filter out that stuff is really, really important this time of year. I'll throw out whenever we talk about comps for a player. I just want to be clear. It provides a range and not an end point of a player. If anything, when we're describing a player, we're seeing something on film and we're saying, oh, this player looks like a player that I've seen before and it's kind of similar, but we're using what we've seen before as like the main data point when it's like, I've never seen this player in the NFL. He has, like, Denzel Boston has never played in the NFL. It's really easy for me to look at him and what he did at Washington and go, I've seen a player that's similar in size to him that had a lot of 50/50 balls. He kind of reminds me of Roma Dunes, eh? It's like, well, of course, that's gonna be the easy comparable. And the one we've been joking about over and over again, Mackay Lemon is going to get the same comparison of another slot receiver from USC. I'm on Ross H. Brown. But comps kind of provide a range and not an end point. So whenever we describe a player that way, I was trying to find a comp for Jeremiah Love. We'll talk about running backs next week, but it almost felt out of date. When I watched the film, I compared his size, compared to this style and I was like, man, I feel like he's La Sean McCoy with a little more giddy up. And I'm like, I feel like that comp doesn't matter that much anymore to people. To me, and like where I started with Fanny's football and where I started with the football, I was like, that matters a lot. But I'm trying to give a range of what this player could be. Not, he is La Sean McCoy. So keep that in mind when we're describing players. - Yeah, I'll jump in. Mine's more just philosophical of like how you play the game, how you play Dynasty, how you evaluate the, how you weigh information, you know, 'cause we are both, like we're an analytics and film. We aren't, and now I'm sure, you know, we all kind of skew a percentage. It's like I'm, I would say I'm more on analytics side than the film when it comes into my process. But it's like you're playing, you're in control, man. Like this is your team. These are your rookies that you're gonna be drafted or drafting. So well, I hope that we're giving you good advice and good analysis and help point you in right direction. But at the end of the day, it's your decision. You know what I mean, of like, being, like when it comes to rookies, being, what's the way to format it? Liking a guy and it doesn't work, that to me anyways, that feels not nearly as bad as when I don't like a guy. But then I'm told I have to go in on that guy and like this is, you're the 105, man. How do you not draft so and so? You're like, if you don't pick this wide receiver here, you're gonna look real stupid to everyone else. And you being wrong on that is infinitely worse to me than when I like a player and I end up on wrong. I whiff on that guy. So it's your, it's your roster. Make sure you're, make sure you're living your life, how you want to live your life. - Yeah, and at the end of the day, you're gonna hear so many different statistical thoughts, film thoughts, comparisons, all those things. It's really hard to figure out which one you should weigh or less, but when they start stacking up, like, you know, the red flag starts stacking up, like I have certain part of my process where for receivers, if you're really, really, you know, you didn't earn targets at an elite level. That's a red flag. That's not the only issue in college though that it's like, okay, well, because Brian Thomas Jr. didn't see 20% targets per out run. He's dead to me. It's like, no, that's one thing in college with Malik neighbors on his team that he didn't do well. So don't just take one stat that we say today or any podcast or what you see out there in Twitter and just say, that is now this player's, I'm in or I'm out because you're gonna see a ton of those this year. So for Matthew Gold, in the example we keep giving, it was, okay, the 40 time, that's cool. That's gonna help his draft stock for the NFL. We have to add that in. But I'm also weighing against these other things. So we'll try to give you a menu of things. In the end of the day, we might just be playing wrong about a player. Like yeah, that's part of it. Well, we'll get some right, too. Yeah, this was, you know, last year around this time, this was the guys. How does Camp Scadiboo not work in the NFL? Like all the production profile, everything you can dive in analytically, watching him on tape. And it's like, the knock I can give you is when I'm watching him on tape. I don't know why it's working so well because the man is not overwhelming the, with athleticism. He's just, he is a running back. And we just kept saying it over and over on this show that until the NFL tells us they don't like this guy, I'm just gonna keep ranking them real high. And then the NFL draft told us, they didn't really like Camp Scadiboo. And it was like, it was like that felt bad to be sowing on a player and then have the NFL say, no, you're wrong, only to find out weeks into the season. You're like, no, we were right. You were wrong, NFL. So we're gonna keep doing it our way. - And now post injury and plus Matt Nagy, it could go a different direction. - Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, it could. But I'll talk about it. - I just got it. - I had to throw out Matt Nagy though. I had to throw that in there real quick. - Yeah, just, these guys still getting jobs, still getting jobs. We'll see. - Yeah. - All right, let's take quick break and then we'll talk about some production profiles. (upbeat music) So one of the things that we're gonna be doing today is looking at the production profiles that we have in the dynasty pass. What you can do is you can go position by position and sort by, here's their counting statistics. So they have this many receptions compared to the rest of the class. You can look at their usage, like here's the type of target share they're seeing. But what we really care about is what translates to fantasy. So we've looked over the last decade and said if somebody is a quarterback one in fantasy, their top 12 quarterback, or man, this person has the production of an Alvin Camara. This is the type of stuff that translates the NFL 'cause Alvin Camara, I know seems really old now, but like a monster for fantasy for almost a decade straight. What did he do in college? And then how can we compare that to some of these other guys? So that's part of the process we're doing today. Last thing I'll say is there are a lot of buckets you can organize players into. And sometimes they're gonna fit in, he scored a ton of touchdowns and that's a really good bucket. And then other times you look at their, you know, wow, this dude's 24 years old. That's not a great bucket if you're running back it, or running back so. - Right. - It's gonna have in flow. We're gonna talk about some things that are awesome for these players and then some red flags, including a player that I stumbled upon today that I go, I haven't heard a red flag about this player today. And I'm a little worried. So that's my, it's my whole problem. - Wait, things are too good. That's what's worrying you. - It's too good. No, this one's. - It's almost too quiet. - I brought up debates. I whispered it to him and it could work. So let's jump in. - Hey, rookie. Welcome to the NFL. - We are gonna have entire episodes devoted to the running back position. That one's coming up next week. We'll talk about quarterbacks tight ends. We'll have a couple of episodes on the wider severs. 'Cause this is a little bit of a deeper class to talk through some of those deeper names. Quarterback, we're not gonna spend a lot of time here because the production that translates from college to the NFL really comes down to a couple of things. Do you have experience and did you run the ball? So this class doesn't really give us a tie.
of names to work with. And that's kind of sad. But the experience thing has started to kind of creep up where I feel like we got spoiled from 2024. Yeah, we used to have a conversation, man, if you're young, how good are you going to be like three or four years from now? And then it was like, oh, if you only started like 15 games in college, that's kind of a red flag, right? Yes, that's that's the only thing we can tie Simpson right now. One year starter at Bama, who knows, you know, and in the recent trend of guys that come out without a lot of experience in college, whether it be just raw number of pass attempts, some people like to filter for that, for their production type stuff, or just number of games started, or what have you, the hit rate on those guys is really bad. And obviously the two that hurt the most recently in our world that we live in, Anthony Richardson, right? Didn't have a ton of experience of Florida, but it was like, you can see it for fantasy. Like if he's on the field, and when he was on the go, he was great. But now there's just like, it's even in the league in two years, right? Trade Lance just never happened. But we were all in in thralled with the, well, what if, you know, and the nighters were enthralled with that. So there's been a lot of, I think, recent, the pendulum is swung recently where it was like initially it was like, oh, the traits, the tools, the guys that go high, you can see it in a couple of years. But unfortunately in the NFL's world, when you lose coaching staffs, get turned over every year. And then you get a new machine with an inexperienced quarterback, and they're learning their second and third scheme as they get into the into the NFL. So really these guys that have experienced the enough, or in the in college, excuse me, have performed a lot better recently in the pros. We're seeing that with guys like Bo Nix to name a couple. So yeah, we'll see what this, what this class brings. But overall, as he mentioned a couple of times already at the start of this prospect season, pretty uninspiring to say the least. What would you say to the person that had Tralance and Anthony Richardson on their dynasty superflex team like me? Oh, they're not listening. If you had a dice to team superflex and went all in on those two guys, you're, you're done. You're like, I'm not playing this stupid game. It is, I quit. I quit. It is interesting. I went back and looked at Sam Darnold because he was incredibly young when he was drafted. He had two years. He started as a freshman and as a sophomore. And even that experienced piece was like, those are bad jets teams. I mean, it was terrible. Adam Gays teams. And then we've kind of seen over time like, okay, this is an NFL quarterback. It's just incredibly young and his experience looked a little different. So we'll talk about those in the quarterback episode. If you wanted to know, Fernando Mendoza's rushing numbers, they're not elite in terms of what we look for. Usually you want 15% or more of the team's rushing yards. That usually means you're going to run in the NFL for four or 500 yards. He saw less than 9% this year. So he didn't scramble as much. He's still going to be the number one overall pick. And we'll still talk about that. But for fantasy, what translates to being a quarterback one, this class might not even have one guy. Yeah, they may not be the fact that like the way that the coaching situation went for the Raiders, it thinks could have really shook differently for me where I would have essentially no interest in Mendoza. You know, like they, let's say they hired a defensive guy. And you're like, just, okay, this is an uninspiring hire. This team is not going to be putting up numbers. The fact that it is, I mean, well, at least at this point, right, it's supposed to be Kubia because I don't think they can't officially actually say anything. And we recently, we just got duped on the internet with some some but holes. We're saying that Cliff Kingsbury is hired. He's going to be the giants. Oh, see. And only to go to sleep and wake up. And that was completely false. So we're just we're operating under the assumption that Kubia will be the coach for the Raiders. That's that makes Mendoza way more interesting to me that maybe he can like with with that scheme. I mean, Sam Darnold's on this list, right, of best college rushing yard shares nine and a half, like not inspiring. Sam Darnold in this scheme for the Seattle Seahawks had fantasy value. So I'm more open now to Mendoza, assuming we get cubes as as the play collar. Let's move to running backs because I think the conversation around production, which is what we're focusing on. So not what they didn't film. We're first starting about what did they do, what are the stats they put down? It really centers around rushing touchdowns. Jason's brought this up so many times. One of the stickiest stats from college to pros is did you score rushing touchdowns where you involved inside the five you end up going there. So I know one of the one of the names last year when we talked about Quinshon Judkins is like, he was a touchdown machine in college when he was at Ole Miss when he was at Ohio State and then you saw with Cleveland, it was like, wasn't a great season overall and I know he ended up hurt, but he was the dude inside the five and that translated to his skill set to the pros. It's one of the things that we know we care about. So pure just how many rushing touchdowns did you score? We do have a metric that shows us here are the thresholds we care about at the running back position. So Mike, why don't you kind of just go over quickly like for a running back one for fantasy purposes. What are some of the thresholds we care about? So and when we say thresholds, we're talking about looking at guys who are already successful in the NFL guys who are putting up running back one seasons. What did their best season in college look like? And we're saying thresholds as in not just raw numbers because you get some offenses are just why like the production they put up is their video game numbers. And then there's some guys that it's a much slower-paced offense. So we want to know actual percentage of that team's offense. How important were you to it? And I mean, though, the all of these numbers are available on the dynasty pass and this is these thresholds, you know, it's going to be interesting to see if they start moving with the the changes in college where, you know, expecting more guys to stay in college longer because they're getting paid and having a great time with their lives. But right now the the percentages that we're using, when it comes to rushing, we want, you know, around 46 percent is like that's a really good number. It's not that 41 is the end. It's just these are just markers and then receiving production, that part is pretty important to me as guys who actually catch the ball, you know, it it translates to more fantasy points because we get a half or a full point just for catching the ball compared to a rush and you just you get more yards through the air. So we want that shared about 11 percent. And then it's just and it's nice to see them have a dominator rating above 30 percent, which a dominator is like they're overall percentage of the teams yards and teams touchdowns, which it's it's hard to get there. Honestly, it really is, but when, but we're looking for the, you know, the guys were taken in the first round. We want the best of the best and then guys who are going in, I'm talking your rookie drafts, you're talking round two or three, like, oh, this guy, maybe he's more interesting than this draft selection spot because you're like, oh, go look what this kid did in college. He has a chance because he put up numbers similar to guys who already had success in the NFL. Yeah, and to speak to that too, just on the like share of the teams workload as far as the rush temps share the receptions, that sort of stuff. Like in college, I think we we brush by that too much a little bit where it's so simple yet it just tells us like the best players in college touch the ball the most. It is a sign that the NFL are sorry, excuse me, the college coaches want him to get the ball in this guy's hands as much as possible. The guy that right now in the NFL, that example sticks out to me is Chase Brown, where like coming out of college, he wasn't the cleanest prospect right, fell to day three, but it's like if you go back to his production profile, you're like, did this guy can be a workhorse? He might be a little undersized, but he can be a workhorse and he was, and now we're seeing what that is in the NFL. And that's just one example. But yeah, I think we, we over we get so excited with like yards for out run and zone yards for out run and all these sort of stuff, these like advanced analytics things that don't get me wrong do matter. But at the same time, some of these just raw like how much of the teams production were you counting for tells us so much information about the players talent level and how their coaching staff viewed them on their own roster amongst their teammates. Yeah, there's there's so many fun statistics when it comes to running backs. We talk about explosive rush rate. We talk about force miss tackle. The explosive rush rate is really fun because those are the ones that are going to show up in the highlights. This player ran for 15 plus yards. This is a breakaway touchdown. The best running backs in the NFL. That only happens on like six or seven percent of their carries. So it's like you're you're taking such a small statistic and saying this is what this player is going to be, which doesn't happen a lot. We talked about Sequan, right? This year went from the most explosive season of all time in 2024 to only a handful of runs over 20 plus yards in this class. If we're looking at just raw production at the running back position, especially running the ball, Emmett Johnson of Nebraska towers above the rest of the class. 62% of the teams attends 81% of the rushing yards. It's it's pretty wild stuff. He right now he's looking as a day two prospect. And then we'll talk about a little bit later. His receiving profiles also among the strongest of this group. So if we're just looking at which players from a here's all the thresholds we like. And we'll talk about Jeremiah love. He's he's going to be up there too. But Emmett Johnson is an interesting name. I don't know if you've done any of his scouting yet, Mike. But he's
He's a name that I have penciled down. Yeah, let me, uh, I'm trying to get some my notes. So, uh, why don't you talk in the meantime? Okay. I will give you a statistic because he had over 1400 rushing yards. And he also had 370 receiving yards. There are only eight running backs for the last decade that have been drafted on day one or two that have hit those marks. 14 hundred rushing yards, 370 plus receiving yards. And the list is pretty great. Creme Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Sequan Barclay, Travis ET and Najee Harris and Marian Hampton. And then, uh, some guys named C.E.H. and Zach Moss. But, yeah, so that, you know, it can't be a perfect, it doesn't always work. Um, yeah. So Emma Johnson, uh, I have pretty decent marks for him. Uh, like, I mean, the, the, my first note is workhorse. 62% or 19% receiving, uh, of the receptions. Like, that's, that is outrageous. Uh, I felt like he had an okay burst. I don't know if we have the, I don't know if he has the home run speed. Like my evaluation of the tape, but I love how much he's using the receiving game. And my, my, my strongest note is watch him when he's like running and trying to change direction. Like all his upper body, it's guys, it's, it's, it's, it's very strange. He's like, uses his upper body to change the momentum of where he's running, where a lot of guys, you know, they get a little lower and your, your legs are doing it. He's got this really interesting, herky, jerky running. You know, um, do you remember the big cares when Adrian Peterson would get loose? And he's running, right? And you're like, he's, it was more upright. Yeah, like his, yeah, he's very upright. And he's like, his upper body is, is helping propel him, uh, it just, it always looked a little funky. Um, but so like I said, his lateral movement is just, it's weird, but he has a decent jump cut. It seems to work, but it, if people think that's an issue, I would not be surprised. You heard of your first folks, the next Adrian Peterson, um, well, no, no, no, no, no, I was saying seem to try to get you to visualize how funny it looks. I will say just on the earning touches in college is a skill standpoint. This man over average over 24 touches, not like targets and, and carry touches per game during this final year in Nebraska. So can you be a workhorse? Absolutely. Um, I think of all the day to guys, I'm most excited about him early on the process. Yeah, as of right now, like he just went ahead of me and our mock at the 108. He's kind of landing at the end of first rounds at this point in the process. Let me be very clear, you know, just because people are saying this is where this player should go. Doesn't mean that's where they're going to go, you know, a month or two from now. But he's in the mix. Jeremiah love. We'll talk about him at length, but he's very good. Yeah, 56% of the team's rushing yards and they have another running back. We're going to talk about Giderian price that also ate into the workload. It's not like, you know, they had a capable running method. It seems it's going to be drafted on day two as a part of the mix. That's interesting. Um, I did want to mention Jade, not he went to Oklahoma. I used that in air quotes this past year because apparently when he transferred, they didn't care about him. But he was at California when Fernando Mendoza was also there. He also had a really good senior bowl, uh, which means he'll probably get some height. But his production profile is very interesting. If you care about two or three years ago and then not very interesting. If you look at this past year, which is kind of the conversation, right? Like you have to ignore certain parts and then emphasize other ones, but he's an interesting name. I did want to get your opinion bets on the Penn State guys, you being the Penn State truth or because Nicholas Singleton just got injured and he's out for a while. Kaitron Allen is going to show up much better as a runner. And yet both of these guys have been around for so long. Like I knew the story that Penn State was like not a great passing offense. And then you've kind of given a little more context. They literally haven't had anybody else really for the last four or five years that have mattered at all other than Tyler Warren. Yeah, we probably should have shared that news. Unfortunately, if you missed it, uh, Nick Singleton broke a bone in his foot at the senior bowl practices this past week. So he's going to be basically be sidelined through the entirety of the kind of pre draft process. We won't get any NFL combine data or anything like that on him, which is kind of a bummer. But yeah, they were basically the entire offense the last four years. And when Singleton came out, he was the number one running back recruit in the country. Um, Allen joined him at Penn State and then basically their entire offensive gameplay and was let's play 1998 football. Let's manage and be conservative and really not drop back a ton. So the offense was super stale, which is why they never really had high end wide receiver talent go there or stay there. People will transfer out a lot. And outside of Tyler Warren, there's been like no, uh, pass catchers in the last three to four years to come out of there. It's because Singleton and Allen were the entire offense of her context on that shoe Aller in his career has attempted less than 23 passes per game in college, which is crazy. So they really were a conservative offense and just fed those two relentlessly. They were kind of viewed as like thunder and lightning type duo where like Singleton was a little bit more explosive. Allen was the bigger kind of goal line type guy. But both I think are exciting prospects because I think that they could become more course type guys in the NFL. They have this ability to do it, even though they did share the load pretty much 50 50 that Penn State. Yeah. When you look at Singleton's profile, he broke out as a freshman, which is, you know, some of the stuff Mike was talking about earlier, if you're really good early on, then that's usually a sign. However, we usually want those players who break out early to declare within, you know, the year two later. And Singleton's been around for a while. I remember him as a recruit in Betsy, you can find this like he was the number one running back recruit in the nation. So he's a really big deal coming out of high school. Um, and had 12 touchdowns as a freshman. So that's really, really awesome. Stays in school. He almost came out last year. So we'll kind of have to wait on how teams evaluate him injury stuff. He's an interesting name. What's what's funny about you don't think he's interested. Save it for the running back episode. Yeah. Yeah. It takes. But what's funny about those two guys, if you guys are called two years ago in a college football play, they made a run, jeweler, grabbed his pants through an incredible interception. And they lose to Notre Dame. And so there was this whole like 2025 redemption tours. And they were like the laughing stock of college football. So that's why those guys came back was to try to to make around a national championship. But obviously things went sideways real quick with that team. The other name. This is a red flag that I want to bring up about one of the names. Judarian price out of Notre Dame. He's kind of competing as the RB two or three in the class, which is interesting considering love is the far one away, you know, number one running back. But Jadarian price this final year, if you're just looking at what did you do this past year and your production, 113 carries 674 yards, 11 touchdowns. So the 11 touchdowns is kind of propping it up. But I really, I wanted to ask the question, has there been any running backs over the last decade who only ran for 674 yards? Like that feels very, very low. That were drafted on days one or two. Like at first glance, does that sound like a terrible rushing yard shows 27% of the teams rushing yard share? Yeah, it is strange. You know, I have my, I have, I have my concerns of like, you know, thinking back of a beach on had Roshan Johnson behind him. And it was like they're roast. He had his supporters like people were like, no, no, guys, I'm telling you like just don't worry about how good beach on was. Roshan is is also very good. And then he goes like round four to the Bears and I mean, whatever, whatever happened this year, like kind of cemented the, we have no interest in Roshan Johnson that that a seventh round Kyle Monangak come in and take your job is. So I have concerns about that. Like I know that beach on in front of Roshan was like this guy is so truly dominant. But when you're watching Jeremiah love play, you're like, he's just, he's so good. And he's just making the defense. I mean, I feel like you put Jeremiah love out there. And then everyone gets so sad about themselves. And just depressed that price can come in and have success. Like that, that's how good love is. Yeah, price has 15 total receptions in college through three years. So that's going to definitely like in the game that we play in fantasy. We're going to dock him there. But I looked over the last decade. Has there ever been a running back that was drafted rounds one, two or three and saw less than 700 rushing yards. They're final season. And they weren't hurt. There's one seems. Oh, there's one guy. He was drafted in the first round, first rounder. It was Josh Jacobs. Oh, yes, yes. Yeah, that was because at Alabama, you always had the stable of running backs that also made it the NFL with him. So it's final year. He only had 640 yards, 11 touchdowns in 15 games. So production-wise, Josh Jacobs was not a clean prospect. But when you go back to that year, he was that was where you you had to trust the, that was the like, I, I'm ever.
I mean, caping for Jacobs of like analytics be darned, just watch him play. And that year the supply was so low, is Jacobs, Nikhil Harry, uh, you know, Henderson was like a top five pick in dynasty rookie drafts, Drill Henderson. It was just not a great year for offensive players. Yeah, I know. That's just so funny and hindsight. Yeah, that's, that was the supply at the time to think about it. That he was, that he was like, oh man, I want this player. As a top five player, um, last thing on running backs and then we'll move on. I mentioned Emmet Johnson as a receiver over last decade. We only have nine running backs who have caught 40 passes. And we're drafted on days one or two. It's a great list. All of them finished as RB ones and full PPR, okay? All of them except for C.H. And I blame my homes on that one. But it's a really good list for Emmet Johnson to be a part of. And I, I would say right now, I blame C.H. For not being good enough, you're blaming my homes. Well, homes did everything he could. Are you blaming my homes that the story of him, he'm telling Andy Reed to select. Yes, yes. Okay. But the name that I, I just, I haven't figured out what I think about him is Jonah Coleman out of Washington. His receiving profiles fine. He's kind of seen as the RB two in the class. Production wise, I think it, he's fine as a prospect, but I don't feel like he's a home run. And hitter, Mike, I mean, I, I thought we were trying to save most of our, they just hates so far. I, I've, everything I've heard from Jonah Coleman is he's the next running back in the class you want. And I just don't know if I feel that it's like, oh, he's for sure. The dude based on production and as of right now, he is for me. Okay. I'll put it that way. But we are like, I feel like Betsy were on my side. Last year we had a, we had a, we had a weight gate going on where Devon Neal was claiming he, or they claimed that Devon Neal was like a certain weight. And we were like, there's no way, there's no way he weighs that much. And then he got to the combine and he was, he was somewhat close to it. You know, okay, I, because I think he was like a 220 list and then weighs in around two, 15 or something. Coleman has that too. Like, I, I keep seeing him listed as 220. I'm like, what are you talking about? Like, maybe it's just his, the color of his uniform, making him look a little smaller to me. But I am, I am fascinated to know what Coleman weighs in that. Yeah. And these numbers, right? Like, like we have it on the site and everything and that you see on the internet. They should all be taken with a grain of salt until we get the real. Who was the kid? We just had one of the poor. Yeah, who was like, he's six, two or what do you mean? Like, and he's like five, nine. Yes. Guys, you want to take official measurements from either the senior ball if they were there or the combine. That's what matters. It's just so insane. Why, why I, I feel like I have to soapbox this every year. I don't understand. Why is the college listing these players? He's two, 35. And you're like, oh, it turns out he's 220. He's six, two, he's five, nine, like that isn't such a massive difference. And you think people aren't going to find out like it's, you're going to get away with this. I'm like, no, that guy is definitely six to look at him. It's so weird, man. It's so weird. Maybe somebody just made an error, you know, like, whoever was, they make the error every year. Oh, it's supposed to be a two. I'm actually put a three. Yeah, who knows, but don't trust that stuff until you get the NFL comment. To your point on Coleman and kind of like, kind of like he said, like he's vying for the RB two in this class that is consensus for you, kind of the same thing that we saw with. Who do we just talk about from Notre Dame? Did you do any price? I think there's a lot like, obviously, love is RB one and that's not kind of change. Outside of that, you could put the next like five names in any order that you prefer. And I would say that's not crazy. And I think that speaks to what this class is at running back where there's some really strong production profiles. There's a lot you can poke holes in. There's question marks on this guy going to do go day two or day three. And all of that will obviously get sorted out over the next few weeks. But I just want to point out, like I think that second tier, whatever it is for you in this running back class is very interchangeable. And I think honestly, like for me, might change multiple times this off season. When you're in your rookie drafts, what's going to happen is love's going to go one. You're going to see a run of six receivers, five or over six of them. And then everyone's going. What am I going to do next? And I say that as somebody who's currently on the clock at 109 and going back and forth, trying to host a podcast too. But that's where we're at with running backs where you could have a guy you like a little bit more like image Johnson right now production wise would be an easy one for me to click the button. Say, oh, I can justify that at this point in the process and say, look at what he did. He's off the board, Jonah Coleman's off the board. And then from there, I'm like, I like some of these guys. I don't know if I like them as the 109, where in years past, we could take that guy at like 204 or 205, because they're all on the same tier. So there is still a lot to sort out. And that's what's great about this process. We're looking at production next week. We're going to talk about film and some of these players, some deeper names, maybe some sleepers that Mike has up his sleeve at running back. Maybe maybe we'll see. All right, say quick break and talk wider receivers. I'm moving on to wide receivers. We do have some thresholds that we care about when looking at wide receiver ones for fantasy. What do they do in college and how does that translate to the pros? And the best part about our receivers, they're not a ton of categories for us to really, truly say, you got to go in all these directions of what they did with contested catches. And it's like, what was your share of the receiving yards, the receptions, the touchdowns, and how does that translate to a dominator rating? So we really want it to be above 30% for all of those. And if you really think about in the pros, the best wide receivers end up seeing a target share, you know, 25 to 30% you're an alpha. If you're targeted on 30% of the routes, you're, you're insane. You're incredibly good. If you see 25 to 30% of the first read targets, you're a really, really good player. So those are the thresholds that we really care about. This year, I said earlier, I feel like there's a variety of prospects. If you want a big guy, if you want a slot guy, if you want a guy that's versatile, if you want a gadget player in Zachariah branch, like you can find that in the NFL. So my first thought before I went through all the production is, I don't know what NFL teams need. Because some team might be like, I like Zachariah branch. I want a player who can do everything I need in the slot and we give him screens. I like that type of player where I look at him and go, that is a terrible production profile. If you have an eight out of five, that's really bad. It your cadarious Tony or you are some of these other players that haven't worked in the NFL. But NFL teams might feel differently and say that's a day to player to me. So wide range of outcomes here, any names that stand out to you bet. So you want to bring up in terms of receptions, yarded share that kind of pop off the page. I mean, can we just start the excitement now just for my guy, I'm a lemon guy. You know, oh, screw the lines. McCoy lemon is one of my favorite players in the class, citrus warfare. Oh, absolutely. You think you like a lime spike? Come on, no, it's lemon over here. There's a lot of debate, which is actually really fun. This time of year to have like who's wide receiver one of this class is a lemon. Is it Tyson, Colonel Tate? Kyle was alluding to this at the start of the show with like a guy that I haven't found any negatives in this profile yet. And I think what you were talking about Kyle was was McCoy lemon out of USC who you look at as production profile from a receptions yardage, everything is there. But he does have a little bit of a later breakout age, which I think is maybe the yellow flag that you could, if you wanted to throw it in there, you could otherwise. I think of the first round prospects. He comes with perhaps not the highest ceiling, but probably the most stable production profile and maybe the highest floor in the class. If you compare at the top three or four wide receivers, so I'm a huge fan of him. I was watching him a little bit yesterday, a really fun prospect coming out of USC. But his production profile looks awesome. Final year had almost 80 catches over 1100 yards. So definitely something you want to take a look at in the Dinesy pass. Yeah, early on the process, I feel like he has the combination of the highest floor. And if you're playing in full PPR, I feel like he just translates the easiest to the NFL. Of you're going to crush zone coverage. So I think lemon feels to me early in the process, like my favorite two of if I was picking someone for the NFL. Now, that is different than who's going to go first. I think it'll probably end up being Tyson or Tate that end up going first. Jordan Tyson out of Arizona state, carnal Tate out of Ohio state. Any of those numbers, Mike, that stand out to you from among the top guys, from dominator rating, touchdowns, any of those. The, it's nice for wider sewers that there's, there's not a lot, but you have to, for wider sewers, you really have to put the entire puzzle together of I don't, I don't love guys who are only 50, 50, but like not only is being hyperbolic, but you know, like, they're used that way a lot. Like the, the, I think the verdict is still out on Roma doing
Wednesday, but like I wasn't as in on Rome in this part of the process as there was other people out there that I really respect their opinion. They love Rome. I just like to me, it's a red flag. If that's where you're, if bully ball is how you're really getting it done, like then you better be a big bad bully because then because you could bully college kids, but you can't bully the 1% of the 1% at the in the NFL. And then guys where too much of it is, is the yards after catch with the low A dot when that can get out of control. It's like, so you really, when it comes to widows, you really have to have a good marriage of the analytics and the, uh, and the film and the, the, and during the NFL season, you know, I'm not, I don't, I don't, I don't have time for college, but from the footballers. So I'm learning all these guys, you know, I'm, I'm reading their names fresh. And I got to say the, the, the, the most devastating part of the, the, the wide receiver process so far is the realization that his name is not Kevin conception from Texas A&M because and I guess he goes by KC, but it's like on mock, mock draft database, shout out to them again. It's Kevin conception. I know it's spelled, you know, conception, but it's like Kevin conception is just the alliteration. How intense that name is. It was going to be great. And then it was, and then I got shot down and it was like finding out it's not Romeo dubs. It's not, uh, it's not Devon A chain like, oh man. That is a big part of my process, to be honest, this is what I bring to the table guys. I know I'm with you because I usually get a list for our development team, you know, November, December. And part of that process is who are all the fun names that we get to talk about, like, not just the production profile, but like, who's a really fun name. So for instance, we're not going to be able to talk about a wide receiver out of Tennessee names, Squirrel White because he's not going to make the cut, but he's a fun name. Not Squirrel. Oh, man. Get your act together. Um, another thing that's really hard, you talked about bully ball. I was having a conversation with someone earlier today about contested catches. And it's a really cool skill to have, like, Puka just set the record of contested catches this past year. He had 27. I mean, if you think about Puka, not the biggest guy, but when the ball's in the air, just a bully, fearless, all that stuff, a lot of these guys, if you look at what their contested catch rate was this year, it's like, oh, it's 48%, it's, you know, 50. Most of them had maybe 14 to 15 targets that were called contested catches. That's not a very big sample size to make a call on a player based on their good or bad in the NFL based on 15 targets. Right. And, and where I, another layer of the, where I think that, when that's what, that's like your calling car from college, it's a, it's a chicken or egg thing is like, are you just really good at the 50, 50 ball? So that's what's going on. Or you can't get open, you know what I mean? Like these DBs are able to hang with you, you, you're not creating any separation on your nine routes. So like that's where I start to get concerned with a, a wide receiver turning into like a true dominant wide receiver one, not that you don't have a place that you, not everyone could be a wide receiver one. And we need to have production coming from our, you know, our three's and four's. But right now, right and right now, at the beginning of the process, you're like, I want to hit on a, on the best wide receiver, the guy who turns out to be the best one for fantasy football. So it just laying out some red flags. I think the guy in this class that, I know we're going to talk about all these guys in detail. That, and usually in my mind, kind of, not only 50, 50, but like, his calling card is like big body in the red zone can wind down and feel it can test the catches. Is Denzel Boston out of Washington. It's, it's just kind of funny how the NFL is changing so much, right? We're like previously, before all the two high stuff, like big X receivers was super valuable in a league eight, nine years ago. And then you kind of seen this trend where it's like, okay, now defense are playing all zone. There's a way big plays are trying to keep everything in front. And then you have kind of these players that just win in the intermediate areas that are way more valuable for us in fantasy than the previous hat. I hope he catches a 50 yard touchdown here because it just doesn't happen in the NFL and nowadays outside of a rare play here or there so the classic like DK Metcalfs of the world. Cortland Sutton type traditional X guys win down field. It's not really a thing in the NFL anymore. Not that I won't have value to an NFL team for being able to fill a role. But for like fantasy, those types of guys are just kind of slowly going by the wayside. And it might change. You know, it's then I fell sick. Cool. How it changes every year over the course of a couple years. But right now in today's kind of world, those guys aren't really winning in the NFL. It's interesting. We'll see where he lands. Yeah. Kenny Dollar. Kenny Dollar, I killed it. He's the one that a couple years ago, he got a bag and then just completely ruined it. But it does give an example of players like Nico Collins coming in the league was, oh, this is just a big body. Dude, that's all he's going to be. He's just going to be, you know, a nine route guy. And yet over the last couple of years, it's like this guy wins the intermediate area like you're talking about. There's nuance to his game. He's not just a contested catch guy. So it's, it's a conversation, I think we're going to keep having for white receivers of, you know, what is your, what is your skillsets say? You can be good at what's your, you know, Trump card, like what can you say? I'm awesome at this. Does that matter? And then the conversation I want to have about one of these players, I'm bringing up a red flag. Okay. Is if you're really good on a per route basis, that's awesome. That's like the targets per out run stuff that we talk about all the time. But we also care about overall production. What happened to the end of the year? Did you end up with, you know, 800 receiving yards or was it 400, whatever it is? Carnot Tate right now out of Ohio State is the wide receiver one on mock NFL mock drive database. Okay. Mm hmm. He crushed man. He crushed zone. Like, I think he's going to be a good NFL player. Where'd it go to school, Kyle? He went to Ohio State. So he's going to be good. Okay. We're done here. Nothing more to see. Scout the helmet. Let's move on. If you if you're helmet says Ohio or LSU, I'm going to take the chance. So his final year, which is kind of what I'm bringing up, you only have 51 receptions. You can explain that away by his teammate, Jeremiah Smith. But 51 receptions is 11 games played. He's really low. I sorted by receptions per game. Okay. That's 4.6 is what he had. And I looked at over the last six years, if you were a first round wide receiver, did you catch at least five balls per game? Okay. Okay. You're the list of players that are below five, Carl Tate at 4.6, Quentin Johnson at 4.3, Matthew Golden at 3.6, Jalen Rager at 3.6, Henry Ruggs at 3.3. Stop. Woo. Just stop. It's it's it's I need to bring it up because if I'm looking at pure production, he had nine touchdowns, eight on 75 routine yards, and yet not the counting stats that we care about. That doesn't mean he won't be good in the NFL. I just want to bring it up as this player is being mocked to go like fifth overall right now in a lot of mocks. That's not the production profile we usually see of a Jamar chase or these other dudes who end up going there. So that's a great point. I mean, it's definitely something to consider because I think right. I think usually what happens in the NFL drafts, mock draft circles, and we as dynasty players see, I'll do this guy's going to go top 10, like I'm in immediately in your head. You're like, okay. Top rookie pick. It's just to be right. And most of the time in a vacuum that will work out more often than not of course there's bus every year. But I do think it's worth discussing and it's nuance, right? It's like, well, okay. Of course, a book was there and Marvin Harrison Jr. was there and he's the next guy and he's playing next Jeremiah Smith. And so of course, context is needed. But I do agree with you. I was like, oh, I was hoping to log in and see like this guy was dominating. He was putting up a ton of production and he had a good year. But like you said, just for top 10, top 15 NFL draft pick standards, it's definitely not what we're used to. So it's going to be something to consider throughout the offseason here. Yeah. And that's the way you throw it out there. You say, hey, I saw this. This is different than what we're used to for this player and we kind of move on. The other thing we usually care about is, did you command targets? We talk about targets for our run. If you were a first round wide receiver, the average is 28%. So were you target on 28% of your routes in rounds two and three? It's a little bit lower around 27%. But if you are sub 20% that is a giant red flag that at the end of at the college level, like at an I Mitchell, it's like, oh, this player isn't really the best in terms of this category. And the player that I was bringing up today is named Jeremy Bernard out of Alabama. You hear Alabama. And so he's another player that kind of ends up getting lumped into the other Alabama wide receivers, but he was only target on 20% of his routes. His yards per out run of 1.70 would be the second lowest of any player taken in rounds one, two or three over the last decade. So is he that guy? We'll see. It's just another name that I want to bring up and maybe my opinion changes. But he's a top 60 overall player right now on boards and based on production alone, I would say he's more like 80, 90, that's unpopular to say right now. But that's kind of where he's at. You must love saying it then. I just like bringing up counterpoints.
I'm just, I'm here to bring up the stuff that nobody wants to say 'cause it's not going to be popular. And I'll get buried, that's fine. I do think like the, the points you're bringing up and we're going to talk about like I said, all these guys in full detail throughout the next several weeks. It's so important to just take a step back and be like, well, what if this matters? What if this goes wrong? Cause it's so easy with every prospect, every single year, and every cycle to be like, this guy could be the next this. I love this part of his game, but rarely do people talk about like, is it gonna be us concerned that Carnot only had 51 catches and he's a top 10 pick like, you know, stuff like that. So I love the conversation. I think it's good to make sure that you're viewing this and taking a step back and not just getting so locked into a take and not changing your opinion. Yeah. And last little thought we won't go into tight ends here. You can check all those production profiles out in the dynasty pass. But Kenyansodik has kind of been locked in as a first round pick for a while. And his production profile I stacked it up against all the other first round guys. It's, it's okay. It's not the level of the Bowers, Warren, leveling pits. It's more in the second tier of guys that were drafted in round one, like TJ Hockinson, don't concave David and Joku. So from an early standpoint, I feel like Kenyansodik is kind of like, well, I need a tight end. I'm in the first round. He's tempting for me here at the 109. But he's not as clean a prospect as some of the other guys because leveling Warren commanded ridiculous amounts of targets and call it. He's not going to be used the same. So any final thoughts here, Mike. The, the final thoughts here are, I got to stick up for my co-host Matthew Betts, who says Kyle, Bryce Lance, we moved through the first wide receiver look. And you didn't even bring up that tray Lance NFL superstar, his brother is a wide receiver. And he's going to be in the draft first round pick. And my first round pick, I mean, I drafted. You think Lance is kind of just like poking everybody on team like my brother. He can ball. We're like, dude, we do not trust you at all tray. Do you guys remember? Do you guys know the meme of like the guy leaning forward at the edge of his chair, you know what I'm talking about? A couple years ago, I was watching, it was like a random night and North Dakota state was on. I was like, ah football on. Sure, you know, it's like a Wednesday or something random. Like, I'll throw this game on. See what's going on. And I hear Bryce Lance makes the catch. I was like, wait, Lance. And I, you know, I move forward a little bit in the chair, lean forward. They start talking about trail, Lance's little brother. I'm like, this is the next. This is it. Next guy is here. We found him. Even though Tray didn't work out yet yet. We have identified. Hey. Tray Lance with his size and athleticism at a different position. It probably works out. I have definitely. Imagine him playing wide receiver, right? We're about to find out. He could probably do it. He's only 25. He's technically not in a contract with the chargers yet. I mean, if a team is looking for a free agent, he is a free agent. Oh, baby. Oh, baby. You're telling me that you're telling me, Tray Lance might be able to go to a quarterback competition. Vikings in the quarterback. Yeah. Yeah. We are back. We are so back. Sadly. We are so back. Okay. We're going this right here. Do you think that this man is on an NFL roster in August? Yes. Tray Lance. Yeah. I do. I think he'll have a backup job. Okay. Do you think he's in a roster in September after cuts and everything else? Yes. Yeah. I do. 100%. This is the bar. This is the bar we're at now. Are you a roster? Yeah. This is kind of this is all we can do now. Let us have this. It's going to be more over. Make sure you check out UltimateDraftkit.com, the Dynasty Pass, and enjoy the big game as they say. Goodbye. Thanks for listening to The Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. If you want to take your Dynasty skills to the next level, check out TheFantasyFootballers.com.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Filtering out hype and noise—such as character concerns or inflated combine stats—is crucial for accurate rookie evaluations.
Production profiles are vital in fantasy football, with metrics like target share, rushing yards, and touchdown totals offering better insight than raw stats alone.
The class of rookies is deep and competitive, especially at the running back and wide receiver positions, with many players showing similar production levels.
Red flags include inconsistent production, low rushing yard share, and reliance on outdated comparisons or inflated early hype.
The value of film and analytics is balanced—prospects with strong film profiles and consistent data, like Emmett Johnson or McCoy Lemon, stand out despite early hype.
Some players, like Jeremiah Love or Judarian Price, have strong production but question marks due to limited college exposure or inconsistent workload.
Weight and size claims from college lists are often misleading and should be disregarded until official combine or senior bowl data is available.
The draft process remains fluid, with rankings evolving as new data emerges from combine and draft results, making early projections speculative.
Summary:
The podcast discusses the evolving landscape of rookie scouting in fantasy football, emphasizing the importance of filtering out noise such as exaggerated headlines, character concerns, or misleading combine stats. The focus shifts to production profiles—specifically target share, rushing yards, touchdowns, and receiving efficiency—as the most reliable indicators of fantasy value. The current class of rookies is seen as deep and competitive, particularly at the running back and wide receiver positions, where several players exhibit strong, consistent production.
However, red flags emerge for those with low rushing yard shares, limited college experience, or inconsistent performance. Notable names like Emmett Johnson, McCoy Lemon, and Jeremiah Love are highlighted for their balanced stats and potential in the NFL, while others like Judarian Price face scrutiny due to weak production metrics. The analysis also stresses the need to ignore college-reported weights and sizes until verified by official combine data.
Ultimately, the draft process remains dynamic, with rankings evolving as new information surfaces. The hosts caution against over-reliance on early projections and emphasize the value of combining film analysis with analytics to form well-rounded evaluations. This balance allows for more accurate, adaptable decision-making in dynasty drafts.
FAQs
Key factors include production statistics like targets, receiving yards, and rushing touchdowns. The type of target share, dominance rating, and film analysis are crucial. Raw numbers matter, but how those stats translate to fantasy value—especially in terms of target volume and efficiency—is more important.
Headlines and character concerns often lack data support. Being able to filter out sensational claims—like a player not watching film or struggling with the NFL ball—helps focus on verified, hard data such as production profiles and film performance.
Comparisons provide context by showing how a player resembles others in the league. However, they are ranges, not guarantees. A player might look like a past player, but that doesn’t mean they will perform identically.
Rushing touchdowns indicate a player’s ability to break through defenses. Workload share (e.g., 46% of team’s rushing yards) shows how much the player is trusted by the coach, which is a strong indicator of their value in the NFL.
Red flags include low production numbers in a final year, lack of target share, poor film performance, and inconsistent stats. For example, a player with only 674 rushing yards in a final season may seem underwhelming despite being a first-round pick.
Production profiles translate college stats into NFL-relevant metrics. For instance, a player with 1400 rushing yards and 370 receiving yards is rare and often indicates strong fantasy value, especially in full PPR formats.
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