Predictions and award picks for the 2026 NFL season

Welcome to the athletic football show brought to you by the US bank smartly visa signature card. I'm Robert maize. It is predictions day here on the athletic football show. We're laying out our picks for every major season long award and our playoff division winter picks and the super bowl. That's what we did today with me, Dave and Derek. Quick bit of housekeeping before we dig into that. Our in season schedule this year on the athletic football show. Pretty much the same as it was last year Sunday night recaps live on the YouTube channel with love. You guys would come join us for those live while we're doing them. The audio will be in your feet on Mondays Tuesdays. Me and Derek doing the Monday hang over a pick and three games or so that we didn't talk about on the previous nights recap Wednesdays is building the beast with Dave and Dane all of your draft coverage available every Wednesday throughout the season Thursday. Me and the guests saying was we did last year. Those shows will be all over the place, whatever I find interesting wherever I'm curious about that week and then Friday we will have our weekly previews. The big change this year. We will have the Monday night and Thursday night recaps available as audio podcasts in your feed every single time we do them, which I think we're planning to do every Monday and Thursday night this year. We still will be doing them live on YouTube with love of you guys would come join us on YouTube for those shows, but either way, they will be available as podcasts for the first time this year for a whole variety of reasons. But if you guys are not YouTube consumers, not YouTube subscribers, which you all should be at this point because we also have a more robust video specific YouTube plan coming to you this year. But if not, you will be able to listen to those as podcasts for the first time. That's really the big change other than that. You're regularly scheduled programming here on the athletic football show. And that includes our yearly predictions, our yearly prediction and awards episode, which is coming to you right now. It's about that time, gentlemen. We have football tonight. The season kicks off Super Bowl recap or Super Bowl rematch. Excuse me. Super Bowl recap wouldn't be as fun. Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and the Patriots. So we are celebrating this the only way we know how it is time for some predictions about how this NFL season will go. I've alluded to this dark at some point over the last month or so. I don't know if I've ever had a harder time whittling down the teams. Like I feel so unconvicted about especially some of the playoff team choices this year, just because I think it's so tight in the AFC that you could go it's so many different directions. So no matter what we do, people are going to be mad about some of these decisions. But that is the nature of the league as we entered the 2026 season. I actually almost think because there are so many viable playoff teams, it'll I almost felt better about it because it made it easier to just be like, I you have to accept that two or three teams will be good and you have to accept. Yes, they don't have to accept. Right. They don't have to accept. But like, and they'll just feel like some other years, it's like you're kind of hemming and hauling over like is my seventh seed really a playoff team. And that to me is more excruciating than being like the team I'm picking seventh is a playoff team. Sure, I'm leaving a couple off. But I at least feel better about that. I ran through one of those season simulators just to sort of help visualize everything. And when I got to the end of it, I was like, shit, this is completely opposite of what I thought it was going to be. And yeah, it's it's impossible trying to sort through all this. I don't even have anything that's overly spicy. I mean, there's maybe one division winner that might be a little bit surprising. Maybe a couple, but I think you could talk yourself into pretty much any of them. So that's just the nature of what the league looks like. I think that it's easy to go chalk because there are so many chalk worthwhile picks, where we'd see my god, this team that maybe has the 11th best odds to make the playoffs in the AFC. And we'll talk about it in the AFC. There were nine teams. It was one of the sportsbooks I was looking at because I was just curious. Nine teams had minus odds to make the playoffs. I was talking about that with Bella. And so the nine that I came up with, I was like, how do I pick between these? And when I saw that and I saw how close it all was stacked together, it made me feel so much better that it was just excruciating to whittle it down from nine to seven. Uh-huh. But again, that made me feel better. I was like, listen, you just have to accept it's going to be what is going to be. I'm so curious, Bella, if that's happened before. And anytime recently, we're nine teams had minus odds to make the playoffs. It seems incredibly unlikely to the extent that it's not even possible. The Jags were the closest one to even. And I think what I was looking at yesterday, they were like minus one 10, mm-hmm. Those are very good odds to make the playoffs. That's like your standard money line favorite. Yes. So it's just an incredibly strange year. And we're already getting out of, I'm already getting out ahead of my apology because I feel bad about the couple of teams that left off. All right. We're going to start though, not with playoff teams or Super Bowl picks all of that. We're going to start with player individual awards. We do this every year. We start with a couple of the big ones and then get some of the more mid-range ones before getting to the headline stuff like MVP. Let's start with defensive player of the year. Dave, why don't you kick us off? Who is your choice for defensive player of the year? And for all of these, we're also going to throw out like one long shot bet that we think is at least interesting. That was on the board. Do you want me to do both at once? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Because for a lot of these, I just, and I know it's, it's a frustrating thing to do to pick award winners because there's a certain logic that follows picking these award winners that frankly is kind of boring. And so I'll just say at the beginning, if I was actually going to place money on somebody to win defensive player of the year, it would be Will Anderson. I mean, what he's already done, he was third in the league in pressures last year. He led the league in past fresh win rate per PFF. He had 12 sacks. He is the face of one of the leagues truly elite defenses. And unlike a defense like Seattle, where there's eight guys, I mean, it's him and Daniel Hunter all do respect to Derek Stingley. It's him and Daniel Hunter. That's a derrick. Sorry, buddy. It's okay. That's his main competition is his own edge rusher. So like if Will Anderson has the exact same season, but has 15 or 16 sacks instead of 12, that's beyond obvious and like a beyond easy pick. I'll take it one step further. If Will Anderson has exact same season, he had last year, and my last year, it just doesn't have the exact same will Anderson is probably defensive. Yeah, the other guy doesn't break records. You probably have a pretty good chance to get Will Anderson. So you really don't need me to tell you that Will Anderson might win defensive player of the year. So if I'm stepping out on a limb a little bit and having a little bit more fun, can I interest you in an all pro from another defense that we think has the chance to be the best in the NFL? Quinion Mitchell is also my long shot. Let's go. Yeah. It's a very it's a very logical place to land. And I was given the courage to do it based on Patrick's or tan doing this to you. Not that long ago. Yeah. It would probably require some things breaking his way. Maybe Miles Garrett splits, you know, sacks with Aaron Donald or or Byron Younger, whoever. And maybe the Houston guys just aren't quite as amazing as as we think they'll be. But Quinion Mitchell, he's already a household name. He's a first team all pro last year. He plays for an NFC East team. So we already know the eyeballs are going to be on him. And they're going to be playing a ton of big games. We think this is going to be a top five, maybe even better defense. And he's already widely seen as a top five, six corner in the NFL. And it's not crazy to think that he could make another leap in that progression this year. 29 pass breakups over his two years in the NFL. No interceptions in the regular season. That's the problem. Okay. But is it a problem because in two playoff games, he has four. So it's not like he can't get them. He just hasn't gotten them in the regular season. I just think that's there's two. The lack of regular season interceptions. I just think you have to have so many of them to win defense a player of the year. I would disagree because Patrick Sir Tan only had four. Here's the other wrinkles of that, though. When you play in a man heavy defense, there can be a drum beat about what you are within that defense that I think allows your value to extend beyond whether you're taking the ball away. For the most part in order to win long regular season awards as a defensive back, you need crazy counting stats or you need a narrative driven thing like Patrick Sir Tan had where this team plays a ton of man. It's all him. He's the driving force behind it. The Eagles aren't that sort of defense. I that's my only thing hanging me holding me back. I think they could be a little bit more of that defense this year because they did play a lot of man on third down left. Yeah. It's not going to be the Ross. It's not, you know, where he's following the number one restaurant. But if everyone's talking about, hey, they're playing more man and they're playing more man because they have Queen. That's actually a good point. The thing that's going to bite me in the ass is to reek will watch to reek will and finish with six picks and, you know, Quinia Mitchell's the better corner. That's what happens all the time. It absolutely does. But I don't know if he plays, if he plays another level higher and this defense is what we think it could be. If it's a top three defense, let's say he gets at least three picks and he's sort of the fit one of the faces of this Eagles defense. I think it's, it's definitely a long shot. But if we're not going obvious, I think it's as logical as any pick. I liked the odds. It's like 50-ish to one. And I think it's interesting. You can tell yourself a story about how it gets there, even though I think it's a little bit remote. My actual choice is also Will Anderson. I think in last year, I'm just going to do it again because I think that if he has the exact same season, then he wins defensive player of the year. If Miles Garrett doesn't break the sack record. And we've talked a lot about this. I think the Texan has a chance to have like a special defense this year. And so if the Texans have that sort of defense, who's going to be the face of that defense, the best player on that defense? I think it's probably We're going to be Will Anderson. You mentioned Daniel Hunter and I, I almost picked him as the long shot bet just to kind of cover your faces. But I just, it's harder for me to imagine that because even if there's a season, let's just play this out. Well, it happened last year, right? How many sexes do you want to have last year? He had 15, which is very more than one. Yeah. But no one thought to Neil Hunter was it more important defensive player for the taxis of the volunteers. You would have to have like 20 exactly exactly. And so I just think that the sack totals, there's a chance that Daniel Hunter has enough of them to get you over the line, but I feel like the impact that will Anderson is consistently making and even beyond what you said, Dave, about the total pressure numbers. He had the second most pressures in the league last year per next gen. He had 38 quick pressures, which is the third most in the NFL in an 8.7% quick pressure rate. Like this, how often and how efficiently he is affecting the quarterback beyond the sack totals and what he is a run defender. I just think that the the season to Neil Hunter would have to have to take away the narrative upper hand from Will Anderson. It's just hard for me to imagine that. So that's why I went with Quenia Mitchell. Mm hmm. I mean, my standard pick is also Will Anderson. It's like Will Anderson or Miles Garrett. I don't really see. Well, realistically, there's like four names that deserve serious consideration. Yeah. We see and I know I just said Patrick Sirten won this recently, but more often than not, that's a very good bet to go with a pass. And that was a year that just like there were no star pass rushers that year. In terms of, I mean, Miles Garrett was Miles Garrett, but I think that year he just didn't have as many sacks as he might typically have in the season. You know, he didn't break the record like he did this past season. My long shot also 51 tied there with Quenia Mitchell. I had Josh Hans Allen just based on like, if I'm trying to pick a pass rusher who is really good, but the pressure numbers were better than the sack numbers. Yeah. He only had eight sacks last year, but he was fifth in the league in overall pressures. Like he gets to the quarterback. It's just a matter of being able to finish. And so if he just again converts five more of those and he did a year ago. And I think part, it would be kind of a narrative thing too, because I think if the Jaguars, we're not, we're talking about them as a good defense, but we're not really talking about them as like the Eagles or the Rams of like they could be the best in the football. But if they are the second or third best defense in the football, and it's because he's racking up 15 sacks, if I'm picking the long shot, I kind of like the, I like the idea of closing the gap between the pressure numbers and the sack numbers and that being the driving force behind it. I think that's a good thing to pick up on. All right. Let's get to offensive player of the year. Dave, who was your pick for offensive player of the year? This is an obvious pick, but I've been convicted on it since we got into preview mode. And I talked about it in that division preview. I think, I think he is the leading odds, Gitter. But he is by a lot actually, Jimmy Gibbs just makes so much sense when you consider the offensive infrastructure, the lack of competition for touches. They got the quarterback. They got the continuity on offense. Jameer Gibbs, I mean, he's seventh in rushing since entering the league. He's third in yards per carry. He's third in rushing touchdowns. He's fourth in explosive runs, second in 20 plus yard runs, averages 11, 20 plus yard runs per season. And that was all while sharing a backfield with another qualified back. I'm sure over the course of the year for one reason or another, something will crop up that eats into his overall touch load. But if he's relatively healthy, I expect his numbers to be be John adjacent. And I think the Lions will have a better record than the Falcons. And the dirty truth is you can't win an award like this going seven and ten. Yeah. Team success matters. Can win an award like this going ten and seven or if the Lions are even better than that. It's, I mean, he's the favorite for a reason, but this was one where I really didn't feel like I had to overthink it at all. He's also my choice. I just think the path for all of those touches in an offense that I expect to be really explosive. We've talked about this. The Lions schedule was not very good. I think the defense has a chance to be shaky at best in the early part of the season before Brian Branch gets back, even if I don't think they're going to be a total disaster because I like a lot of the things that they have up front, but if this team has to win a lot of games, like 35 to 31, I think the offense has a chance to put up crazy numbers. And him getting more touches like it helps him in terms of putting up the numbers, obviously. But also, I think it's kind of like a narrative boost because coming into the league, it was like how many touches can you really give to me? Yeah. And he had to split time and all this stuff. And so if you get a season where it's like, oh, he really can just get 380 touches and he's going to be able to handle the load, I do think that that would do some work for him for sure. So this 20 is his max rate, 320 touches last year for about 1,840 yards and scrimmage and we've talked about this. Their running game last year just was not very good. His overall numbers, he still average five yards to carry because he's so explosive, but they were not consistent down to down last year's run game. I think it will be better this year with at least moderately improved play on the interior. And the amount of touches he's going to get, I think he's just a really safe bet. There's a reason I think he's like plus 550 in a lot of these places. He's almost shots like plus nine, I'm going to say he's significantly more highly favored the vision. Going and looking at some of the long shots, I didn't have anybody that I felt all that excited about. I mean, there are plenty of guys I think you can make a case for. I actually thought for a lot of the reasons that we just said some of the environmental considerations, I'm on Rossane Brown at 25 to one. If you just look at the consistent work that he has gotten, I don't remember where I said this. I think I might have said it. Maybe during our fantasy draft that we did our best intentions. I remember reading this out loud recently. I'm on Rossane Brown's last three seasons, 117 for 1411, 115 for 12 63 and 12, 119 for 1510. Yeah. Just imagine. The automatic. Yeah. Yeah. It's just, it's insane how consistent it's been. And so let's just say it hits that again. He has a few more plays down field. He finishes the year with, I mean, he's already done it, but let's just say theoretically finishes the year with 1,600 receiving yards, better than 1515 and that goes to 14 or 15 touchdowns. That's an offensive player of the year's caliber season as a receiver. And so I just don't think you have to push him that far to get to that place for him to be 25 to one. Like you look at the odds of other guys he's around like Nico Collins. That's just not happening. Like honestly, that one's not crazy because it would have to be like Jay, it's endless. Well, the sheer amount of targets in Nico Collins might get with them that offense, but I just don't know if I trust that passing game to be good enough and then AJ Brown's like right around there too. Maybe AJ Brown could put it together a season like that, but I just think I'm on Rossing Brown. When you think about the consolidation and the consistency of the workload, there's a path for me for him to get there compared to some of the other guys that he's sitting around. Like CD Lam has some more odds. I just don't see that. The Cowboys receivers scared me and just could because they're both in that offense. Is it 40 to one? It's somewhat interesting, but I just don't know how you get the work of CDs healthy for most of the season. You won't be surprised to hear this. If you listen to the division previews, I think my opinions at least are not going to be surprising, but 75 to one Jalen Waddle has a tasty little treat. I did see that and I was like, that seems really long. If he goes, if Jalen Waddle has not had 75 catches, he hasn't had more than 75 catches since 2022, obviously he was sharing the offense with Tyree Kiel for the bulk of that. And then the Dolphins passing offense just kind of fell off last year. If Bonix funnels the offense through him and he is really good, and another thing. He liked the league in past stamps last year, Bonix said, led the league. I think I try so hard to think narratively about this stuff. Jalen Waddle is the only thing that's different. And so if the Broncos offense is awesome, it's easy to imagine people pointing at it and saying, well, Jalen Waddle changed everything for the Denver Broncos. He's the offensive player of the year. I don't think that's likely, but that's why he's 75 to one, put $5 on that, I don't think you're going to regret it. It's falling. I mean, that's basically how Barclay wanted. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Who was yours? Uh, so my actual pick was a non-Jimmy. It was mine. It's Justin Jefferson. I like that as well. And I think he's a somewhat long shot. Yeah. He's like, what is it? He's like 14-ish to one. Yeah. And he's like fifth overall in odds, which that's probably the lowest you're so in. I am. I am. You're so in. You've taught yourself in so hard. It's a couple of things. One, and I said this. I said this on our graph. Justin Jefferson's average season before last year was 99 catches 1480 yards and eight touchdowns. That's an average season for him. And that includes missing seven games in 2023. And so I just think him getting quarterback play. That is anything. Then what he got last year, I think, can get him there. And this also is probably like the longest odds you might ever get on Justin Jefferson winning this award. Like you think about that. Like the middle of the second round in every single fantasy draft. Yeah. There's a chance that just Justin Jefferson wins you every league. You'll never get to the guy low like that on him again. I just don't. I think it's more so that it's not that I'm out on the Vikings offense. I just don't think I believe at this stage quite as strong as you do, because I think Tyler is such a specific kind of player that there's enough guesswork involved in what it's going to look like that I just can't get myself fully there. That's what I got to see it. Yeah. Yeah. I have to see it over like a one or two weeks ban for me to actually get a sense of exactly what it's going to be for me to fully believe in it. I like how it varies between the three of us, but everybody's got the thing that they're just wholesale and on site unseen. But then at the same time, you're like, I got to see it. I need I need three weeks with this before I can believe in it. Sometimes that stuff just happens where you there's something about it. And again, it's just like with Kyler, it's the areas of the field that he accesses. And if we're going to have, if you have an entire season with Justin Jefferson, where the intermediate the middle of the field is just off limits. Can he have the sort of season where he's the offensive player of the year? I think he probably can. He's good enough for it. It just does make it harder to get there. That's not my thought. If there is, isn't a world where he can have that new clear season because the offense has to paint itself into a corner a little bit in the areas that it can attack and what it looks like. Is that enough for him to lose out, even if he could have a much better season into the year ago? There's just, there's enough uncertainty about what it looks like in practice with a guy that is just unlike any other quarterback in the league for the most part that I have to see it before I believe it. I get it. All right, let's say our first quick break and then come back and chat about a couple coaches. Are you the kind of sportsman that wants to dig into the story behind the stats? Join the athletic live on YouTube to cover all the sports stories you can't stop talking about. On game days, we'll watch the biggest matchups alongside the athletics most tapped in reporters and you can become part of the show in the interactive chat. The athletic live is presented by Google Gemini. Subscribe now on YouTube. All right, coach of the year. This is another one that obviously we have a sense of what coaches of the coaches of the year have looked like over time. We understand with the archetype for people who win this award look like. I find it fascinating that the two leaders in coach of the year ads right now are John Harbon, Jesse Mentor. I feel like that's perfect. There's something really telling about that. And even still beyond that, the three leading candidates in terms of odds are all new head coaches, which that shouldn't be surprising to us at all because that's typically who wins this award. Derek, who is your pick for coach of the year in 2026? Mine actually is Jesse Mentor because I just think that there's a chance to like, I don't think the most likely outcome is the Ravens win 14 games, but I think it's absolutely on the board that the defense is just awesome again. And Lamar looks great and they win 13 14 games. And it's like, okay, he brought this team back to what it's supposed to look like. Yeah, it's the idea of Vega, you want to and Trey Hendrickson enough to take away from the idea that Jesse Mentor could take the same roster and Baltimore for the most part that didn't make the playoffs last year and turn them into the number one seed in the AFC. It's not hard to imagine at all. They the highest over undervalued team in the AFC. It's 11 and a half games. You think they have to be like one seed caliber? No, no, I don't think so. I think that's often for quarterbacks that has to happen. But if they're an 11 or 12 win team in the winner of the AFC North after missing the playoffs last year, that's more than enough to put you in position to be coach of the year, especially if the defense feels like that's another part. Yeah, right. And that's the best example where the offense has been really good over the last couple of years. The defense since Mike McDonald left just hasn't been at that level. And he is working with outside of Trey Hendrickson. And I know that's a real consideration. But for the most part, it's the same defensive roster that we've had over the last couple of years. If you take that from a middle of the pack slightly under under a slightly below average defense from last year and you turn it into the third best defense in the league, it's very easy to paint the picture and tell that story. It's a clean sweep. I had men or two for all of the reasons that you all just outlined. But that makes me itchy because it's boring. And that so it is it's a boring award, though. And I think it's it's the award that pisses me off the most consistently because of the of the things we weigh when we awarded. I just think it's really difficult to figure out the exact right parameters for it. Because if you have a good team and you just do a good job with that good roster, you're you're never going to get it. But there are a couple guys that I think fit that bill to a degree that I did like as long shots. What if the sea hawks are just like 15 and two? Yeah. Just like do it again because you're not you're very they would have to be for the coach of the reigning champions to win this. But I don't think that's off the table. I don't I think that there is a chance that the sea hawks are just so good again. And we can build on this idea of people weren't paying enough attention to the sea hawks. They're better than you think they are. And the reason that I think this is possible for Seattle in a way that it might not be possible for another team. And I might met down to the 40 to one as the long shot that I'm talking about. There's no consolidation of credit on Seattle's roster. There's no Lamar. There's no Josh Allen. The offense is you have the offense player of the year from last year. But no one's going to be like, oh yeah, the reason that the sea hawks are great is because of JSN because it's driven by the defense. Right. And the fact that the defense doesn't have one standalone superstar among that group. Who is the most famous member of the sea hawks defensive ecosystem to people outside of the Seattle building right now spoon maybe just because he was a top five pick. It's probably spoon, but even that doesn't like. He's not his famous sister. We're talking about the the enough the football watching populists. And I don't think spoon in in that category is like this household name. Well, the argument that I would make is it's Mike McDonald's. Yeah, yeah, probably. And so I think that those circumstances just put him in a slightly different position than a coach of a reigning Super Bowl champion might ever be because I think that in a lot of ways the Patriots won Super Bowls like this. But Tom Brady was there. Yeah. And so this is just so different like that. The entire conversation around them changes because of who the best players are what the D team feels like why it feels that way. And so Mike McDonald really building on last year and having this kind of runaway case of is he just the best coach in the league. I don't think that would surprise me if that unfolded over the course of this year. So it's 40 to one. I at least think that's interesting. I think that's that would be fun if it happened because coaches like coaches of good teams just being ineligible to win this award has always been bullshit. So it'd be fun if you were able to buck that trend. Dan Campbell's 20 to one. That's what I was about. I think that's all he's at 25 to one on the side. I'm looking at long. He's long. When you compare it to the favorites considering you want to talk about household name. And even with all the star power on that roster Dan Campbell is like the face of that organization. Yeah. And if they go from worst to first. And if they stack a lot of wins, which I'm going to talk about later in the show. Like if I mean, if Detroit has a surprisingly good record, you get for this guy who has the lines in the wind spool. I could I could absolutely see that. And like he's come close to winning this award before. But the fact he never has. Yeah. I think also makes a fun choice because he should have. And there are multiple years where he had a really strong case. You can make an argument for him. And he never has one. Bringing the lines back from what they were. It's like he deserves some sort of like yeah. Like he deserves hardware for having done what he's done. Even if it should have happened already. Yeah. Yeah. The the in 2024 would have been the season that he would have done it. Obviously the Vikings wanted that year and that kind of kind of want it that year because the Vikings one 14 games, the entire Sam Darnell part of that. But the way that Dan Campbell put together that Lions team and how good that Lions team was that would have been the year. And so I think this could be a way of rewarding him maybe in the aftermath of never having won it before despite having some really impressive seasons. Let's talk about offensive rookie of the year. Derek, who was your pick for offensive rookie of the year? I actually went the boring round one of the two boring rounds, I think. And I think it was easy to come off of this after the preseason. But I kind of still think Carl Tate's going to be really, really good. And so I just want to interested. And I love that. No, I'm if if if you tell me Fernando Mendoza plays 12 games, it will probably be Fernando Mendoza. I think there's enough murkiness there that I'm not willing to just like jump head into that. I can't I can't pick a guy that I don't know when he's going to get into the line. Yeah, it's just even I mean, even if I'm wrong about that because like, again, I'm not saying Kirk cousins are going to light the world on fire. But like when Jacobi reset was ahead of Drake May, it was very obvious that that just wasn't going to last for very long. And I don't know how long Kirk is going to play again. But I again, I think there's a little bit more uncertainty there. So I just still think that Carl Tate is going to be really good. I know the preseason was weird for him. And for the offense in general, but top five receiver, I still think he's very good at a lot of things and gives the offense something that they very obviously did not have last year. So I'm still willing to ride with him. This also might be partly just like Jeremiah love is not healthy walking in the week one. So I'm going to play though. Yeah, but he's like, but he'd be ready. It's not that he's not going to play, but like him going into the season with health issues. I don't love that. I understand that. I still just think if you look at all of the factors playing into it, Jeremiah love is my pick. I just feel I have enough systemic concerns about the state of the Titans offense where picking anyone in that offense would worry me. The idea that I carnal take gets like 90 targets, but catches 55 of them for 700 yards is not that crazy to me, which is probably fairly likely. Like I do think that that's like a relatively likely outcome. I think when I got down to that, I think I just didn't feel that much better about the cardinals ecosystem either. I think the offense is a chance to be decently fun. I think the Titans offense has a chance to be decently fun. I don't know if I'm going to like watching it, but I think that we're a little bit burned by how the preseason looked. I think that they can be better. Here's my question for you, Robert. How good do you think the cardinals can be this year? Does it matter though? I think it does. And that's what I was going to bring up is like, if you look back through recent offensive rookie of your winners, they don't have to be good teams, but you don't see a lot of winners on dog shit teams. And I think the cardinals unfortunately might have dog shit potential. I just feel like he has it. I mean, you look at this year's draft class specifically. It's such a weird class of skill. It is players like the positions and the situations those guys are in. I just don't know how many guys have a better pathway to the right combination of production and team success. All the guys that I think have a route to production. I just don't have faith in how good those teams are going to be. Right. I mean, it's like the other guys that that are up there, I don't think the Titans are gonna be very good. I don't think the Browns are going to be very good. The Browns were like, the Browns receiver's talent wise, I wouldn't want to pick them. There's no shot with that quarterback. But in just how many other skill position players are worth picking in this one? Yes, in turn. And the fact that Mendoza isn't going to play in a one quarterback draft, it's just a very weird year. It is a rookie skill position players. And I think that's why I'm just tempted to be like, oh, shit, let's just go, Jeremy. I love he's going to get 280 carries and he's probably going to do a decent work with them. And so if he finishes the year with like, 1,150 rushing yards and eight touchdowns and no one else really does anything, that to me feels like a not far off possibility for this group specifically. The 2019 Cardinals went 5, 10 and 1 when Kyler wanted and the 2020 Chargers went 7 and 9 when Justin Herbert wanted. Those are quarterbacks though. And like with everything that Jeremy I love is going to be depending on to be successful, I just, I think you kind of need to be frisky to win this award. And you're right, though, it is your. Who do you think is going to be frisky enough to win it? I think Jadarian Price has a runway to be the bell cow for the defending Super Bowl champs. And like, I just don't think you'll get the work. Zach Sharbinay will be back eventually, but if he takes it and runs with it, I mean, if Jadarian Price runs for a thousand yards and six touchdowns for a team that makes the playoffs, that seems really straightforward. I think it totally depends on when Sharbinay comes back and how much they want to split up the carries. This is also a question. I don't, I probably know the answer to this, whether they've come out and said it's kind of an organizational decision to split the work in a way that he used to, or whether that was mostly a Clint Kubiak consideration. I assume it might be a little bit of both, I don't know. But I just think that there's reason to believe, based on history, that when Sharbinay gets back, he'll cut into it enough to limit the amount of total work that Jadarian Price gets in the playoffs. In the story I'm telling myself by week four, it's just like, okay, maybe he's so good. Don't take your time. Exactly. He's just like, yeah, he has like a crazy first month and it just gets implanted in everyone's mind and then nobody else runs away with it. It's like he might just like. No, it's a good, it's a good, it's a good choice. It's a good choice. Having said that, I really love my long shot here and it doesn't apply to anything I just said about friskyness. But Casey concepts you on at 18 to one. I hear your concerns. I want to answer as well. He, I, this could age so poorly, but I feel like he might be quarterback proof. A, because of his ability to get separation type of targets, he's going to get the type of target or so many touches for him. And the mountain is smart. He's going to draw up easy looks for him. Monkan drew up nine rushing touches per year for Zay flowers. And that was when he had Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry. Yeah, he's going to do more than that for Casey concepts you on. It's going to be easy targets through the line of scrimmage. Also, he's expected to be the punt returner. I know that's not technically offense, but like if he does some crazy shit as a returner. Perchern's one or two that puts you in the conversation in a different way. I, yeah, 18 to one and, and the amount that I expect Monkan to draw up for him is, is very intriguing. He was also my choice. And again, I think that the skimmed up touches and just how centrally he is to the offensive plan is part of that. But again, we're talking about so many players just in really bad situations. It's not winning this award. It's not a great year. It's a weird year. You didn't go back to the fantasy thing. Like, can you imagine? Do you remember a fantasy season, Bella, where there were so few players that people were excited about, especially in recent times when receivers are so central to like draft strategy and getting ahead of those guys? There's, this year has just been so strange. There were more quarterbacks two years ago. Then there were total guys this year, which I think speaks to just what this group of players is. In any other year. From a statistical production standpoint. In any other year, carnalty would be such a sought after fantasy asset as we go into the season. And even that, even he has been one of those guys where it's like, what around is he going in? It's not very high. And I think that just speaks to the overall enthusiasm for the class. And again, the fact that love was hurt. Like, it just been one of the weirder pre-seasons for an entire skill position group of rookies that I can remember. All right, let's get the defensive rookie of the year. Derek, I'm going to let you start this off because I think I know who your answer is. Am I the same one? It's Rubin Ben. Oh, really? I think so. Okay. I am bought in on. We're aligned. I am bought in. So you're not aligned. Derek and I are in on Rubin Ben. I figure you meant Arvel Reese. Who I think is a very good bet. To like, you know, Arvel Reese, I think it's, I think there's a chance that he has the more like holy shit. What did that guy just do plays? But I do think like I'm bought in on the Bucks defense as a whole, which I think can narratively work for Rubin Ben. If Rubin, if Rubin Ben gets eight and a half nine sacks for a Bucks defense that kind of surges and looks like a top 10 unit again, and they win the NFC South, you're like, they drafted Rubin Ben to be this like attitude difference maker. And oh, my God, he is. He's guaranteed to get a lot of snaps. He plays a position that lends itself to a good statistical resume. And the team could win the division. Yeah. It's a very straightforward case. Not to shit on Arvel Reese. I'm really excited about him. But I imagine, I imagine Arvel Reese being the guy where like us and Ted and Win are talking about it in week eight. And we're just like, Jesus Christ. Did you see what he did to that lead blocker right there? And like the actual statistical performance isn't amazing. He's just a very fun player. I guess there had been a, when I was looking back at history recently, I guess I thought there had been more off-ball winebackers who had won it in part because it's a, it's a position where you can rack up on consequential sets. Yeah, right. If he says a shitload of tackles and he has four or five really impressive splash plays. But before Christ's messenger won it last year, the last off-ball winebacker to an defense player of the year was Shaq Leonard. I guess I just don't really and remember that. It's mostly, it mostly has been past resters. And before that, it was Luke Keekley in 2012. Like it used to be an award that you could win a lot. Like there was a run from, I'm looking at it now from like, oh, four to 2009. Maybe that's what I have in my brain. I'm looking the same way. To me go Ryan's right after that. Patrick Willis, Gerard Mayo, Brian Cushing. It was like all these guys won it. And after since 2010, it's really only been three of these off-ball linebackers. And so I think Arvel Reese is like, if I had, if I picked a second person, it probably was going to be Arvel Reese. But I just think room bay because of the team he plays for the profile that he might have. Like I was pretty excited to see what he's going to do. I hope Arvel Reese wins it. I picked the Giants and the defense pool. That would be fantastic for me. I picked the Cowboys. And that's also why I would be open to the idea of Caleb Downs winning it. That's one I can get behind. If the Cowboys are a really good team, their defensive turnaround is one of the stories of the season. If he plays well, that's one where I feel like the narrative element of it could really drive that forward, even if his counting stats and anyone area aren't going to compare to the up-ball linebackers. Absolutely good. God, would that piss off Seahawks fans or what? If like the year after Iman Worry could get over the top, Caleb Downs comes in and does it for the Cowboys. There's a chance that Downs though, like because he's going to play the role that he's going to play, like kind of has a smattering of like every possible stat. And I think that nobody runs away with it. It's like the worst case is he has not enough of any of it. Fumble one is sat, one interception over the course of the season. But if he does feel like the linchpin of a defense that gets completely turned around, the problem for Iman Worry is again, how many more players on the Seattle defense are more famous or important than Nick Iman Worry? A lot of them. And I do think that they're more central to their success. Like whether Spoon, Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, like those guys are better players on that defense. We're better players last year. There's a chance that other than Quentin Williams, we get to a place for Kill Downs on the 17th best defense league or the 15th best defense in the league feels like the second best player by the time the season is over. I thought about bringing up Quentin as a long shot for defensive player of the year. I just couldn't get there at the end of the day. I just don't know if the even if you're bullish on the defense. I'm just not sure the defense can be good enough to justify something like that. All right. So I had our Maurice as my winner for the reasons that we said. I just think that there's a chance that you look at what he did in the preseason, like he was killed with people's loving people the entire year. Even if it's a harder position to win the award for them. Huge market. It'll there'll be a ton of attention on him. If the defense is better than we expect. If they're the unit that actually really does turn it around, that's probably one more level of nation that is going to matter and award like this. But their run defense was so just heinously bad last year. If it's a good group this year in part because of what he's doing, maybe that can lend to it. But that's there are plenty of reasons why I thought he would be a fun pick. My long shot. What about Peter Woods at 40 to one? I had the other chief defensive 11. I had armace and Thomas. I really looked at we're really okay. We're very sickly enough to do that. That's why I'm only concerned. Here's my argument. Surely a DPR maybe. He doesn't need to play that much. And I know preseason stats are bullshit. But just bear with me. He had eight pressures in a sack across 48 past rushes in the in the preseason. See your pick two. He's my random ass. I have two long shots, which the other one's going to make Derek very happy too. We can get to that in a moment. 65 to one though. If armace and Thomas is purely a DPR and he has like a 20% win rate on those attempts. And let's say the chiefs get back to the playoffs and they're good. And he just randomly has like eight sacks. The defense turning around. Yeah. All these young guys. Yeah. It's the it's it's such a long shot that it's ridiculous. But watching him rush the passer in the preseason got me excited enough to date. It's a narrow path. But like if I'm looking at the other names in this in this list. Like Zion Young is not far from him. They're I just don't think you'll get the counting stats for that. Kayla Banks, who knows if he's even going to play Gabe Ocus is ahead of him. I just don't think he can put up the counting stats. Like if you really do want like a long, long shot, there is a chance that armace. Thomas just gets like armace and Thomas just benefiting from one-on-ones because Chris Jones and Peter Woods are ruining everything. That was my problem. But there's actually a doubt that the one on one. Yeah, which I like he could like wood is a player that I was obviously really high on coming out of the draft. And he's again, if he even looking at Peter was some of the players around him, it's like Celtic Falcon, CJ Allen have the same odds. I would much rather bet bet off he's there. Cedar woods and I was at the similar players I was looking at. I do think this is a great opportunity to talk about something that we didn't have a chance to address because it happened after our AFC East preview. The dolphins cut Tyrell Dodson to get Jacob Rodriguez into the starting lineup. I don't think the dolphins are going to be very good, but Jacob Rodriguez might have 180 tackles this year. And if he displays half the nose, I mean, that might be true. But if enough of them look real, if enough of them look good. And also, I mean, these are college stats. I get it. But his final year in college, he had 11 TFLs, seven forced fumbles and four picks. If he displays any sort of that nose for the football that endeared him to draft people so much, 130 tackles with three interceptions. And he's like one of the only bright spots for the dolphins could be very similar to Carson Sessions. You're just last year. It's kind of hard for me to believe that that will happen two years in a row. But I know Derek would be excited. Oh, yeah, it's to assist in coach of the year. This was the most boring one for me because the two guys I landed on without looking at the odds are the two favorites, the two betting favorites. And I was like, well, that's not that exciting. Mike McDaniel. Yes. Yeah. I mean, I, I'd pick Mike McDaniel. I just think he has, it's new, it's exciting. If that group really does explode, it would just be so easy. So that, that was my very boring pick. And the other one that I would throw out there was Vick Fangier. Yeah. And it's, it's, this is also the muddy, the waters are muddied with this award specifically because so many coaches are play collars now. The only head coaches are the play collars on their side of the ball now that even if you think a unit is going to take a big step forward, like the Ravens defense, for example, well, Jesse Menter calls the Ravens defense. And so it or the Cowboys, right? The Cowboys offense is really good this year. Okay. Well, Brian Shottonheimer calls the Cowboys offense. And so I think the list of potential guys that could even win this is smaller than it's probably ever been. And so that's why I think I just, it was easy to zero in on the two betting favorites. And I also think what the charge is one, it's, it's very easy to see the world where the offense is really good and exciting, but like not nearly good enough to get Justin Herbert, the MVP. In which case, Mike McIntyre was like the obvious, the seat was good enough. Right. Yeah. I mean, that's the other part of it. And that, that's honestly, when we talk about MVP here in a second, there are guys that I would be really excited about just in terms of their own production this year. But yeah, we know how important team success is to winning the MVP. Matthew Stafford, not being on the one seed last year is an outlier historically. For the most part, that's how it works. And again, it gets to the weirdness of the Seahawks, where in another season, their quarterback probably would have been the MVP, but that's just not going to happen with the type of offense that they have. Sam Arnold, individual production, all of that stuff. So even if you think that charger's kind of the third best offense in the league, is the defense going to be good enough for them to win 14 games and get Justin Herbert, the MVP, maybe not. But in those circumstances, Mike McDaniel can be the assistant coach of the year. I was surprised that Jim Linter didn't have better odds. That's a good one to 35 to one on the side I'm looking at. And we laid this out in the preview. But he is, he's calling plays for the defense. And again, that's a really good one. Similar to what I said about Jalen Waddle, like he's the new thing. Like if, you know, the bills were 20th and defensive DVOA last year. I think they were 11th the year before that. If he comes in and the bills are a top 10 unit and it turns them into the one seed or the two seed, especially a year after they didn't even win the division for the first time in a while, it's easy to circle him and say, well, Jim Linter got here and that's been the difference for why the bills look like they might finally get to the Super Bowl. I have to believe in that as somebody who has the bills and the defense draft. So I might as well pick them. Well, speaking of that, I kind of like Patrick Graham 50 to one. Yeah. He's the guy who's like, yep, we kind of know his name, but he's not really had that moment. The steroids defense has enough talent to make it work. But I think we felt for a couple of years now, like, okay, they've got the talent, but why aren't they a little bit better than they are? And I just think that there's a chance that he can get them there. And so 50 to one, like I really liked his outs. Who is your actual choice? Mike McDaniel. Okay. And then who is yours, Dave? I just went with Linter. Oh, okay. Yeah. Okay. I like that. I actually think that's a really, that's a really fun choice. The other one that to me isn't that fun, but is a longer shot than Mike McDaniel and Vic Fangio. And I think you could easily understand the path that would get you there as Krishua. Yeah. If the Rams defense is just, and maybe the players take away from that and maybe that's the reason, but I also just think if they're, they're average, they're allowing 14 points a game and they're the number one defense in the league. I think the defensive coordinator of that team. I think Shula is going to be working against the amount of talent. And I would say something similar for Drew Petsing just because there's so much continuity and star power on that Detroit offense. And the other guy throughout there that's in almost the exact same situation. We don't really talk about him that much because he took over play calling halfway through last year. It's Matt Burke. It's the reason Matt Burton wouldn't win. And I also think that the Texans are limited narratively just by how they play. Yeah. The coaching staff is just never going to get that much credit because of what that defense looks like. It's structurally. It's that. And because of the way they play, it's like it a great season out of their defense will inevitably mean 17 sacks from one of their, you know what I mean? It's like, where is like this with the Seahawks defense? It's like sure guys are going to put up numbers, but it feels a little bit more well rounded in terms of like where the plays are happening by the star power. It's just not narratively at least. Right. We don't think of the Seahawks defense as one of those groups, even if there are a lot of really good players in the Seahawks defense. For how much we've talked about him dating back all the way to January. You should at least mention Christian Parker. He's 14 to one. I can't do that. If I mean, I'll, I'll present it for you. I mean, Dan Quinn won this award when he turned the Cowboys defense around. Like it or not. Still, they were like the number one defense in the league. They were three defense. I just don't think they have that sort of gear to them going from I think the cow that sort of improvement from 30 second and DVO way to 14th is really important for the quality of the Cowboys season. I'm not sure voters are looking at that sort of turnaround and saying that's the assistant coach of the year. I think you have to be like a top three unit to do that counterpoint America's team. Unfortunately, that is a very real thing goes a long way. All right. Protector of the year, which was obviously the first one last year. Joe Tony wins that award. Who is your pick for protector of the year, Derek? I again, I find myself buying in on this team. I think it's going to be Tristan Wres. I also picked Tristan Wres. I just think that this offensive line in general, if relatively healthy is going to return to form and he is just obviously the cornerstone of that thing. And so I think if the box offense looks fun again and they can run the ball, Tristan Wres is going to be an all pro. And I have like enough questions about some of the other guys that like are not questions about some of the other guys, but it just again feels like narratively if the bucks find their level. It's like, oh, yeah, it's because Tristan Wres and the offensive line are incredible again. We had this year award for one year and he didn't play. Yeah, that was one of the only reasons he wasn't in that conversation last year. And so I just think you could make a really solid argument right now that Tristan Wres is the best offensive lineman in the league and full season healthy with that group back healthy. It's just not hard for me to picture that conversation about Tristan Wres specifically. I like being the guy that focuses on narrative while y'all focus on who's actually the best. I do love Tristan Wres, but Penae Sule's switching. Yeah. And if he's great at left tackle right out of the gate, which is not fair because Tristan Wres did this before protecting the award. Or the award. I'm sorry Tristan, it's not my call. But if Penae Sule switches to left tackle and plays at an all pro level seamlessly. And if the lions are successful, which you might be sensing a theme that I think that's going to happen, I just, I think this might be a no brainer. If he's like an all pro caliber left tackle after being in the conversation for these sorts of awards as a right tackle, just right, just write it off already. Or the other thing too is Lane Johnson lifetime achievement award. If he can say healthy this year. Yeah. And that might be that might be a diplomatic way to like get out of deciding who's better between Penae Sule and Tristan Wres or whoever else. They gave it. Lifetime was even awarded Joe tuning last year. Yeah. Even though Joe tuning was fantastic last year. But I still think that there's part of a we've never had this award before. Let's toss it to the guys who've been really good for a really long time. I wouldn't be surprised if Lane had that type of season. Lane Smith's two year. Lane Smith's nine games the last two years. If he can play 15 or more games. And then if he looks like Lane Johnson doing it, that wouldn't be surprising. My long shot. I had Christian Darisaw 35 to one. That's what I had Christian Darisaw. I believe it. That's one of those where I believe how excited they are about Christian Darisaw. I mean, the talent is undeniable. And he's being pretty close to those peaks before already. If he can be healthy and he can play at the level they expect him to play at I think 35 to one is probably too long about. Who's yours Dave? I actually didn't have one. I'm just looking through it right now. I'm sorry. The protector of the year word are odds aren't exactly a floating around the internet that the year award long shot. Yeah. Don't be sad about that. We're sorry about that. If I was going to pick a long shot here. I mean, this is the odds here aren't even that long, but maybe Quentin Nelson again, like you talk about lifetime, it's you towards, you know, like if if the cult offensive line is good again, if the offense is good again, and he looks like the best garden football, I think I saw a recent like recently he's gunning for another major contract extension. I could see that. All right. Let's get to the big one MVP. Who is your 2026 NFL MVP, Derek? I already feel so dumb for doing it, but I'm going to say Dak press got let's go. All of my my entire agenda would come into place if Dak press got one the MVP this year. So I'm okay with that. Again, I laid this out. I think when we did, you know, some of the best offensive stuff, but the fact that they were as productive as they were and as an offense overall as productive as they were with some of the offensive line stuff. And I know that Tyler Smith is already going to miss the early part of the season. But I just think second year in the system, that press goddess had MVP type of highs before. I feel like the division is kind of theirs for the taking. Like I think we're a little bit uncertain about what Philadelphia is going to look like. And I don't think the other two teams are really in much consideration for it. I just think that there's a world where they win like 12 games and tack throws for like close to 5,000 yards. And it's like, okay. I'd obviously be okay with this. I just need him to get a couple of those wins against like real deal super bowl caliper competition. That's what held him back in 2023. Yeah. Cowboy fans might not want to talk about that. But like the the marquee wins were not there. The schedule was horrendous. Yeah. There was a really, really bad. And I'm okay with that choice in that moment. But I absolutely think that there's path or act to win it this year. I mean, you brought me one of my favorite bets. It's not a super long shot bet. Right. You look at the odd. He's not like first or second. Yeah. If you look at the odds, I would be interested in that bet. That's why I don't like picking MVP because like it's not even like a long shots are pointless. He's seventh in odds right now. Yeah. Like I mean, it's hard to identify a candidate who's not the boring favorite or such a long shot that it's not even worth talking. Can I give can I give you one? Of course. Actually, so he was my choice is a little more Jackson. I just think that I don't think it's an accident that every time they have a new offensive system, he wins MVP. I think the everything we've heard coming out of Baltimore over the this entire off season that that he's energized. He's excited. Like I think that just happens when things are new and things aren't stale for them there. And so we talked about it. It's the same reason. I think Jessica could win coach of the year. If that's the number one seed in the AFC, if he has a monster statistical season, I just don't think it's that hard to picture it for somebody like Lamar Jackson. I know it's a very boring pick. My long shot that I thought was at least worth bringing up because the odds are so long. And for exactly the things that you're talking about, what if Jared Goff throws for like 4,800 yards and 40 touchdowns this year for a lion's team that wins 14 games? Jared Goff is absolutely. I think like Goff, Dak and Herbert, all deserve to be mentioned in this conversation of like you're a couple things clicking into place from having that type of season. Jared Goff has to get over the narrative hump, right? Like he the lion's offensive success will never be attributed to him in the same way that it will be for other quarterbacks understandably. So when you have that group of scope position players, when you have the two guys I mentioned for offensive player of the year and the player you mentioned for protector of the year on your offense, it's harder for you to consolidate the credit as a quarterback, but his numbers over the last four years. Since 2022, he's thrown for 4,400 yards every single season. He's thrown for 30 touchdowns in all but one of those seasons. And with no David Montgomery there now, let's just say instead of 34 touchdowns, he throws 40 touchdowns and throws for the exact same amount of yardage for the number two offense in the league for a team that wins more games than we expect. I just don't think it's that crazy at 35 to one. Like he has a cleaner path to me than anybody that he's hanging out down there with. Is he really 35 to one? I'm shocked that it's that low. Just for a team that we, I mean, I was looking at the odds the other day, the lions, I think have the fifth best odds to win the most games, which I just think it's there. Like you can see it potentially happening. He has, he has great value. And I do think being purely a pocket passer, it does like limit your skill. Like it has to, you have to get to it particularly. You do have to throw 40 touchdowns. Yes. You're competing with guys who rush for touchdowns. It's not even that's like the starting point that you have to throw for 40 touchdowns, but he can do it. And again, the guys that he's around, Sam Darnold has shorter odds. Jalen hurts has shorter odds and Bo Nick's has the same odds. There is no chance I would touch those before thinking about Jared. I think Jared. That's really pretty interesting. I don't understand. Yeah. That is baseline is 4,533 touchdowns is like that's a good baseline to start off of in a conversation like this. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me that his odds are so far off of Dac and Herbert because I just think of them pretty similarly in terms of their preseason chances of action. I just think that he'll get far less credit than those guys will, even if the production is just as good. But you know, Dac has the offensive or Dac has the receivers and Herbert has the assistant coach play collar that we haven't been able to shut up about for 10 months. I don't disagree. I think Justin Herbert is a bad bet to an MVP. The fact that he has fifth in odds and I think the offense will be good. Good enough to the point where he can score 40 touchdowns. It would have to be a truly special season whereas Jared Goff doing 93% of the 2016 Matt Ryan, I don't think it's that crazy. What if Justin Herbert his career high in rushing touchdowns is five and that was all the way back when he was a rookie. What if you threw like six rushing touchdowns into the equation on top of obviously a much better statistical season than what he's done in the last couple of years. I just still think it's I just think so many things outside of just a quarterback would have to go right for them to be like a top three offense whereas I think with almost all of the other guys here, it's a little bit easier for me to see. I do that. Jayden Daniels is 20 to one. I think him and Jordan love having the same odds as insane to me. Jordan loves the other bet. I want it too much. Yeah. That is that was my pick. Yeah, I think you've actually kind of swayed me on the get the Jared Goff one purely on the numbers. I think like Jordan love is more likely to actually do it because I just think he's a little bit better of a player. But like at those odds where Jared Goff's odds are almost twice as long as what Jordan loves are. I'm like, that just seems like crazy. I think the lines again, just have a path to win an MVP level of games. It's completely what the Packers have because of the schedule that they're going to play. I win about as boring as you can possibly go. If I had to actually put money down on this, I would bet on Josh Allen. I just I would go shocker of shockers. He leads the league in rushing touchdowns the last four years in addition to what he does as a passer. He's been top five in EPA per play four years running. I think the bills are going to win double digit football games. It's it's just very easy to see. The other one I throw out again, schedule is a little lighter. And I think they have a pretty good path to a playoff spot to talk about here in a second. This might be the Joe Barrow year. The only thing stopping me from picking and loving up Joe is just that I did it last year. And I just I don't want to make that my recurring bit. But yeah, I mean, it's very similar to DAC like if the defense helps him out enough that they actually win more games than they lose. They get back to the playoffs. Can I just say I really do love. And I think like I said, I would have voted for Drake May last year, but a nice thing about Stafford winning MVP. I hope that's a trend. Like I hope I hope if a worthy candidate is like the five seed in the playoffs, we can still hold out hope that that would happen. Like it's bullshit that you have to be the one or the two seed to win MVP. I don't agree with that. So it's there been some bad choices that have made because of that in the past. And so if we can drift away from that and pick the people who actually deserve it, I'm totally fine with that. What it was one more one more. I'm sorry, because he didn't get any credit when they were the Avengers. But Brock Party was quietly like top three in EPA per play and number one in success rate when he was available last year. And if he balls like that over the course of 17 games, and it is so beyond obvious that this is not the Avengers 49ers offense of years past, you could have a really nice statistical case. They might not be the Avengers Avengers, but if Kyle Shanahan is, give me Thanos or whatever, like galactical. Galactus. Yes, just any any sort of like overwhelming force that takes away credit from from Brock Party. I think that's part of it. Like even if the players are not there, Shanahan always will be and right or wrong. I do think that chips away a party's case in a situation like this. Like yeah, if I'm imagining like a 13 win Miracle 49er season where the offense looks top five again, I I actually think like Kyle Shanahan coached a year. Yeah, yes, right or wrong. Yeah, right or wrong. I think that's something that we could emerge from that. All right, let's say one more quick break and then come back and chat about our playoff picks. Before we get to our team picks here, we've got something new for you at the athletic this season. Pick them a pro football is the athletics free weekly prediction game for the 2026 regular season. We'll be competing in this. You can pick against us and some of the athletics NFL writers as well as Austin Mox prediction model. Everyone in the top 100 will win a free year long subscription to the athletic. Check it out in the athletic app in the pro football pickup hub. All right, do you guys want to just list all of your division winners individually? Do you want to go with division by division? What sounds individually? Yeah, individual. Okay. That feels right. Okay, let's do it. If you were talking with your friends about it, you'd be like, all right, I've got this team win in the West. Okay, all right, Derek, you start us off. Who are your division winners in the NFC? In the NFC. Or the playoff teams in the NFC. Playoff team. Okay, Los Angeles Rams. Yeah. In the NFC West. In the NFC West. I'll try to do this in some sort of order. NFC South. I have the bucks. Okay. I have in the NFC East. I do have the Dallas Cowboys. The NFC North. I did pick them into sort of Vikings. Let's go. Wow. There's going to be. There's going to be one. There's let's have some fun. I don't. I think the case is not that crazy. I think that there's a chance that they're the most complete team in the division. I think the that there's a chance they all just eat each other. And none of them really run away with it. And also, there are plus 450 to win the division, which is the second shortest odds for a last place team. The Falcons have shorter odds, but that's because everyone in the NFC South is bad. It's for the opposite reasons. And those implied odds are 18%. It's like an 18% chance implied chance that they can win the division. That's not nothing. That's, it's technically the worst, but that's not nothing. They absolutely can win the division. Yeah, they can absolutely do. We've talked about this all summer. It is the easiest situation I can remember. Where it isn't even hard to make an argument for every single team, it's actually very easy to make an argument for every single team. And they are the hardest to do it, but I just, I think they're the hardest to do it. They're, I'll get there. Did you want me to do my wild card teams? Yeah. I have the Detroit lines at the fifth seed. Seattle Seahawks and the sixth seed and the Green Bay Packers and the seventh seed. So I do not have the Chicago Bears. You didn't quite give up on your darlings. You just, you have them, you have the Packers and the seventh. I have the Packers very unfair. Very unfair, very unfair. I picked the Eagles in the Winspool and then put the Packers here. So you also did not pick the Niners to make the playoffs? I did not pick the Niners to make the playoffs. I also didn't pick the Niners to make the playoffs. My teams are. I feel worse about leaving them off. Well, it's, it's one of those where we'll talk about it. NFC North, I have Alliance. NFC East, I have the Cowboys. NFC South, I pick the Saints. (beep) I know who gives it. It's like, that's the one where I might as well do something fun. NFC West, I had the Rams. My wildcard teams, I had Seattle. I had the Eagles. I just think the defense is so good. Like, even if you have questions about the offense, I think the defense has had a chance to be so good. And then I had the Packers as my seventh seed. No bears. There's no upside to me. So no bears, no Niners. No bears, no Niners, no Vikings. No Vikings. What about picking all the playoff teams correctly is upside. What's up? Picking all the playoff teams correctly. There's some upside to that. The idea of picking the bears and then having them miss the playoffs. The downside of that is not worth not taking the bears and having to make the playoffs. If the bears make the playoffs, I get all the satisfaction I need from it. I don't need to have picked them. The defense leaves me so itchy. It leaves me so itchy. And with the Niners, it won't, honestly, when we did, when we did the NFC West preview, it made me go back and reframe picking them in the winds pool. Because I think in my mind, it's all the offense, the offense, the offense and I get that. I'm really concerned about what the front looks like. Them not having any sort of presence on the interior, they're defensive line that I feel good about from a run defense perspective. If teams are just physically manhandling them on that side of the ball this year, it's just really hard to win as that sort of team. And so that area of the roster, I probably hadn't been thinking enough about in some of the things I was projecting onto the Niners over the last few weeks. So that's ultimately would help me back combine with all the other injury things that we're worried about. And then with the Vikings, it's just, it's missing about. - Yeah, I mean, that one, it's, it's, I don't know. But I literally, under all of my picks, the one note I had was, I easily think the Bears Niners and Vikings could sneak in easily. - I feel bad leaving the Niners out of the playoffs, but they're in a division with two of the three best teams in the NFL. And I know they overcame that last year. I don't like the odds of doing it two years in a row. It's just, it's just a math problem. - I could just see them being, and we said this, we joked about this in the NFC West preview. They rarely have a nine and eight forgettable season. Like that just doesn't happen that often to the Niners. I think this could be the year where the Niners are just, oh, the offense is good. The defense isn't quite good enough. There are a lot of good teams in the NFL and then the NFC this year. The Niners are nine and eight missed the playoffs. I just don't think that's a crazy outcome for this team. Typically, we have to ascribe some sort of calamity to them for them to miss the postseason. I don't think you have to do that for them this year. They're new for just a quiet, but not remarkable season. - Yeah, I think that's possible. - I have the LA Rams winning the NFC West. The Detroit Lions winning the NFC North. The Philadelphia Eagles winning the NFC East staying, just staying through to the bit. And I've got the box retaking the NFC South. I just seems very logical to me, even if it is a little boring. My wild card didn't do it. - It just leaves me dead inside. Just to pick the 10-7 box to win the NFC South. - Sometimes there's value in just taking the boring, easy thing, like the team that barely lost the division being healthier is probably good enough to win the division this year. - The Saints defense was better than the Bucks defense last year. Much, much, much better. - The Bucks defense will be better than the Saints defense this year. - How much money you want about that? - How many bets are we going to have going on? - How about like 50 bucks on that? (laughing) - We'll talk after this. - The idea that these Saints defense per DVOA finishes a better defense than the Bucks defense this year. By the end of the season, I don't think it's crazy at all. - I don't think either one is crazy. I think I'm just bought in on the Bucks. - The Bucks defense doesn't need to be good as much as the Saints does, I think. Like I just, I didn't know. - But this is like one specific thing. - One specific thing. - One number and next to a defense by the end of the year. - I think I'd be willing to buy a ticket. - Maybe I'm a little bit too like putting too much into like the Mario Davis being gone, but I just, I don't know. - We talked about it on the NFC South preview. You look at the Bucks defensive numbers by the end of every season over the last three years. They have not been good. They've been bad, actively bad. Despite the players being better this year, I will fully concede that. - My wild card teams are the Seahawks, the Cowboys. I did, I couldn't get there with winning the division, but let's have some fun. Cowboys as a playoff team and the Minnesota Vikings, as much as I can see. - Yeah, so don't talk it about. - No diners, no packers for me. No, and I mean, I've been down on the bears from the beginning. I'm happy to be wrong about that, but I just, I don't wanna sign up to need to score 31 every week to have a chance to win. - When we're picking these teams, we'll do it for the NFC in a second. There are certain teams where you have to be able to paint a picture for how the defense can be good enough to get them there. And I think for the bears, it's harder than it is for a lot of these other teams. I'll, and I'll just plainly say right now, like picking the Vikings is just like, it's fun. And I want some stakes behind the thing that I think is going to happen. The packers or even the bears could easily take that place. Like that is obviously not weird. - And what you said about the defenses, I don't think the packers' defense will be good, but actually since doing the wind spool, I think I've gotten myself a little bit closer to like, especially by the time Michael comes back, they can be like fine. Like it can be a totally solid unit next to the seventh best offense in the NFL. If the bears are only the seventh best offense in the NFL, it's a lot harder for me to get there with the defense being good enough. - I also just think with the packers, the reason if you go back and listen to the offense's draft, if you go listen to the wind spool, if this is one where when you actually try to look at it in like a sober light, we're just bored of the packers. - Yes, that is, that is, that is, that is. - We're just, that's probably a **** bored. It's, they're just fatigue of this group, but if you look at what they've been offensively over the last few years, and again, I don't, who gives a shit like what your EPA ranking is by the end of the season, if you're getting bounced into wild car rounds as a seven seed every year, it doesn't matter. But in terms of consistency, the play collar on the quarterback have given them a real level of consistency on offense over the last few years that I think is just worth buying into, even if it's no longer exciting, 'cause now it's not new anymore. Now we're like pointing them with a stick. - The counterpoint though, it's not even just that they're boring. I've said this, it might have been during the preview, I don't remember, but it's okay to want them to prove it to me for a change. I have given them so much benefit of the doubt, like Derek picked them to get to the Super Bowl. I was so high on the Packers, I've been high on the Packers since Jordan Love took over. It's not some crime to want them to do it before I just say, "Ah, yeah." There they go again. - High off the Packers. - It's just easier for me to put my stink on the Packers and pick them to make the playoffs. Just reverse jinks myself into it. I fully expect having left them out of the playoffs and been down on them for most of the year that like by Thanksgiving, they're just gonna look like a fire breeze off. - I don't think you understand what it is like to watch the teams I care about do anything. I have been so, just strictly and vocally out on the Dallas Cowboys for so long. - That's why I've been in for like two weeks and Tyler Smith is now out for six weeks because of a stupid thumb injury immediately. After me picking them to be good, that happens. And so I'm trying to do the same thing to the Packers and avoid doing that to the Bears. - That's what they do. Like the minute, you know, you tell your dog, like, oh my God, you haven't had any accidents in the house in three weeks. You're such a good boy. And the minute you say that, they pee on the rug. - I can't do it. I can't do it to the Bears. That's why I'm willing to do it to the Packers. Well, let's get to the AFC. This is a disaster. It's, I don't, I'm not even worth doing. I want to just like list 12 teams and then just say like anything could happen and then we end the show, but that's not what we're gonna do. Dave, your AFC playoff picks are what? - Again, you can, you could parse this out based on my picks for award winners, but I have the Buffalo Bills retaking the AFC East and having a very successful season. I have the Baltimore Ravens winning the AFC North after coming very close last year. I have the Houston Texans winning the AFC South. I have the Denver Broncos winning the AFC West. My wild cards are the Cincinnati Bengals, the New England Patriots, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. - So no chiefs. - No chiefs. - Okay, no chargers. - I, the chargers, they cannibalize themselves. The chargers have been my biggest fly in the ointment for this entire time because there's 18 reasons, worth being excited and having lofty expectations and I just, I don't want to. I just don't. - I'm sorry. I don't want to stake my personal happiness and reputation on that stuff coming through. - This is hard. I did have all the same division winners. So, bills in the east, Texans in the south, Broncos in the west. That one I feel not as good as I want to about that, honestly. And then Ravens in the north. - You picked the Broncos? - Yeah, I did. - It's kind of like coming around. - It's too a point where like the roster is just for the most part so good that I'm like, even if they regress a little bit, they'll probably still be really good. I do have the Kansas City Chiefs as a fifth seed getting into the playoffs. The new England Patriots. - You know you want to do it. - Yeah. - I'll just say the Jacksonville Jaguars. - You know you want to just do it. - I did not have them written down and I'm like, I think in my heart of hearts - So who was it between? - The Chargers. - Okay. - And maybe that's just 'cause I picked them in the Winspool over the jet like, I don't know, if it's me fighting a little bit the investment I have in the Jaguar, I don't know what it is, but they are a more complete team, I think than the Chargers probably. - I had the Ravens in the North, the Texans in the South, the Bills in the East. In the West, it's flip a coin. Like I picked the Chargers. I just, but I don't feel good about that. - Yeah. - I don't feel good about that. It's honestly just something different. Like they're all offense being really good and really exciting and them being the team that comes out of that division. I think that's just the version of the season I would enjoy the most. Just because it would feel a little bit new and we could have a different conversation about Justin Herbert. And I think that that version of the offense is something that I'm just excited about. And so maybe that was it. My wild card teams, I had the Bengals. I just think the schedule is really friendly to the Bengals just to get in. The other two, I just want to be as clear as I possibly can about this. I had four teams for these two spots. I truly think that they're interchangeable and who I would pick and who I wouldn't. Like I do not feel strong about any of these. But you did pick someone. I picked the Jags and the Chiefs, which means the Broncos and the Patriots don't make the playoffs in the scenario. - You know what? Even as somebody-- - Oh man. - I'm as bought in on the Broncos and Patriots as it gets, but it's so easy to make the regression case. And year over year, we know this type of shit happened. So even if I don't agree to deny the logic of it, it's just silly. - I just all over the place. - I think I just feel the best about the, I don't even know what it is. Like I just, I think the defense should chance to be better in Kansas City. I'm betting on the quarterback. The Chiefs, even if they missed the playoffs last year, they were horrendously bad in one score games. That's going to come back to Earth a little bit. See that one to the Super Bowl three times in four years. And three of the last four seasons. Like I still think that even if we have questions about them, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt to an extent. I think the Broncos defense just feels more fragile to me than it's felt in the last couple of years. They did take a step back in the back half of last year. The defense of wine isn't as deep as it's been. And it's not that Dr. Frank Ramirez is like the thing that's going to change this. But I just feel a little bit less belief in that group overall. They feel a little bit less sturdy to me. And I've talked about the Patriots all off season. Like I just, the defense worries me. The lack of talent on the defensive line at an edge specifically, just how thin they are defensively, that worries me. And so I truly between those four teams, I think we talked about the top. There are nine teams with minus odds in the NFC to make the playoffs. You could pick any combination of those nine teams and I would be completely fine with it. It's not even that I don't really believe in the Broncos or Patriots, just that you have to make some really hard choices with this group this year. You do. And this is an interesting one. I think I'm obviously I put both of them in. And I think I'm actually like weirdly more bullish on the Patriots still being good than the Broncos. I think it's actually easier for me to see the case for the Broncos. Just don't, it just doesn't break his right for them as it did last year. I am curious though. And I'm like trying to figure this out and look this up on the fly. When is the last time that both AFC championship teams did not make the playoffs the following year? So much of that has been the chief. Right, I mean, so much that is right. And the AFC that probably, yeah, the Patriots and chiefs probably make that impossible in the AFC. Well, and there's always been elite quarterbacks in the AFC. So it probably has been like, well, yeah, Tom Brady always gets back and paid man and always gets back. And, and, you know, Ben Rathasberg and the sealers always went back. And so I don't know what the last time it would be. But like I, I would guess it's been a very long time since two teams in the conference championship game did not make it back at all. Did the Niners make the playoffs in 2025? So yes, yes, sorry, sorry. In 2024, wait, in 2024, the commander is 24. Okay, so kind of the Lions did that. The Lions did make the playoffs really good that year. Yeah, NFC 24. It was the eagles and the commanders and NFC championship and did the eagles make the playoffs last year? Yeah, yeah. That's right, they got blasted by the Niners never mind. So it's probably been a long time. It's been a while. It's probably been a long time since that happened. But last year was such a weird year that it's like, if you're going to bet on that that's happening the following year and like things coming back to normal, it would be, it would be that way. So I something weird is going to happen in the AFC play this year. Like something weird is going to happen. And so unsettling to sit here and make peace with your choices. Like I, I said, I believe in the Jacksonville Jaguars more than the Kansas City Chiefs just now. And I don't, I feel like I'm having second thoughts. This part to me was a little bit freeing just because it was like whatever. Like they're all the same. It's not, somebody's going to be mad at me no matter what I choose. Is there is there a team that none of us mentioned? Absolutely. The Pittsburgh Steelers. I mean, the Steelers and the Colts both really probably deserve a mention. I just feel less good about them than I do. Of course, well, we didn't pick them. But in the interest of trying to foresee all outcomes, like those are two teams that I have to acknowledge could at least pull it off. They're at least in the category of like if they get there, it like things will have to break right. But I'm not going to be like, whoa, how did the Steelers make the playoffs? It would be like, okay, you know, a couple things went right. Maybe the Bengals or Ravens were as good as we thought. Something like that, I think is on the table, where it's like everyone after that. It's like the Titans would need a miracle from God to make the playoffs. I just think that looking at the odds and seeing that there were nine teams with minus odds was so comforting to me. Because I was like, these are the nine teams that I believe in. And I believe in them mostly the same outside of like maybe the Ravens and the bills being the cleanest choices to win their divisions. Even the Texans, it's like the Jacksonies, the Jacksonies want to last year. They easily could win that division again. Then the AFC West, I, whatever, either any of those three teams could win it. And so that's just where I landed. All right, Dave, your final four is what? I have an AFC championship game rematch. I mean, they didn't play in the AFC championship game last year, but a rematch of Bill's Broncos in the AFC title game. And in the NFC, I have the LA Rams playing Matthew Stafford's old friends, the Detroit Lions. I have the Rams and the Siox and the NFC. I'm the Ravens and the Bills and the AFC. It's boring, but I think those are the four best teams. Yeah, I mean, I think the spiciest I have is I do think the Cowboys can get to the NFC championship game, so I have Rams and Cowboys and then Ravens Texans on the other side. I need the Cowboys to win 14 games in the regular season. I don't give a shit what happens after that. Yeah, they can lose immediately in the, in the division older whoever. I doesn't, that putting the Cowboys at the table is one thing that we did. And that picked them in the Winspool. They went 14 games in the regular season. That's justification for putting them in the table. And it's enough for me to feel very good about the Winspool. We want to have the same discussion about them losing the playoffs. Again, when we get there, it makes no material difference to my life. That is, it's a valid point. And my hesitation with the Cowboys and the Winspool playoff failure shouldn't really factor into that. You know, like that's not what we're playing for, but it looms too large in my mind. All right, your Super Bowl winner is who, Derek? I just picked the Los Angeles Rams. I haven't beaten the Ravens, but I just, I think it's really hard to, like, there's obviously, again, them being the best team in the league only means like a 10% chance they won the Super Bowl or whatever, but it's the easiest case to make, I think. I also have the Rams over the Ravens. You know, this is the way I looked at it. It's the same thing as some of these awards. You don't need me to be the 27th member of the media to pick the Rams to win the Super Bowl. And obviously, I think that has a high likelihood of happening. I don't, I don't think it has a high likelihood of happening. High likelihood relative to everybody else, yes. So I went with, I went with a Super Bowl matchup of Bronco's Lions. Because why the, why the hell not? Something weird's going to happen. Why, why'd you just go with chalk for no other reason? Do you have one? Do not say bonic Super Bowl champion. I went with the Lions to one Super Bowl. That would be amazing. I just, I, there are elements of the roster that worry me. But I think the offense can be phenomenal. That's, it's a, it's a weird spot to be where like, again, there's, there's like four teams you can pick to win the Super Bowl, where you're not worried about elements of their roster. But then there we were at Levi's Stadium last year, watching the Seahawks play the Patriots. Who the hell saw that coming? So do I feel good about this? Not really. But I'm just, I'm making a bet that some weird shit's going to go down. Otherwise, what are we doing here? Like if it's Rams bills, then why do we make content for nine months? Like you could have figured that out by yourself. So we'll see, but that's my off the wall pick. I'm glad we're done making content before the game start. That's what I will say right now. I'm very excited for there to be actual NFL football to talk about tonight. Can I rewind a second? Give you guys an answer to the last time? Yes, yes, I love that. So the championship teams, if I'm doing this correctly, it was the 15-16 NFC championship game between the Cardinals and Panthers. And then neither of them made the playoffs. - There you go. - So it's good. - Yeah, 'cause then the person Palmer was cooked and then yeah, you did not go as well for Camry or not. - 10 years ago. - It would be, yeah, I'd be surprised if neither made the playoffs at all. But like one of them slipping out, I'm talking about the Broncos and the Pats, like if one of them slipping out, of course, but both I would be pretty surprised. It could go a lot of different ways in the AFC. I'm just gonna say that one more time before we get out of here. All right, that is all we've got for today. We will be back tonight. Live on the Athletic Football Show YouTube channel. Just a quick heads up. I mentioned this in the intro, but if you guys skipped the intro, our schedule for the week or for the year, the same as it was last year, the only difference it's gonna be, the Monday and Thursday recaps every week are going to be in your podcast feed. So those will be available as audio podcasts, wherever you get this podcast. And so we'll get an extra one this week because we have a Wednesday night game, obviously, that we will be recapping. So that will be live on YouTube if you wanna come hang out with us after the game tomorrow or tonight, but if not, it will be available in your feed tomorrow morning on Thursday. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.