Predicting Powder: The Science, Stress, and Stoke behind OpenSnow

I see a potential pattern day, I start thinking how we're going to do it. I start thinking about how my wife and I and our friends are going to ski. I start thinking if my son really needs to go to school that day, where if he can join us, it's so incredibly exciting. Then the flip side is I realize the reach that we have, the impact that we have. And I am triple checking all models to make sure that we haven't missed something. Welcome back to Epic by Nature. I'm Rob Katz, CEO of Vale Resorts. If you ski to road this past season, chances are you watch the weather pretty closely. At one point, you may have been refreshing snow forecasts every day. If you were in the northeast, it was likely due to the excitement over yet another powder day. If you were out west, it may have been tied to frustration over the lack of snow. Weather has always been a part of the emotional fabric of skiing. We celebrate it, we curse it, and we plan our lives around it. After a hundred year record low snowfall in the Rockies this season, many people are asking why this winner looked the way it did, and what the next one might bring. That's why our guest today is Joel Gratz, founder and CEO of Open Snow and one of the most trusted snow forecasters in the industry. Millions of skiers rely on Joel and his team before storms roll in, during powder days, and sometimes through dry spells, all while voicing their own passionate feedback. Joel has spent his career translating complex weather models into something skiers can actually use and understand while navigating the reality that forecasting snowfall, especially in the mountains, is anything but simple. In this conversation, we're going to pull back the curtain on what it really takes to predict a powder day. Why snowfall totals can still change even hours before storm hits, and what it feels like emotionally to be responsible for forecasts that thousands of people are watching in real time. And of course, we're going to also ask the question a lot of people have right now. Is it simply too early to be making meaningful predictions about next season? Joel, welcome to Epic by Nature. We're so glad to have you here. Thank you very much. How are you enjoying life with Open Snow? I think it's like just the, just the arc of it all has been kind of amazing. I'd love to just hear how it's been. The arc has exceeded my wildest dreams. The arc of Open Snow, honestly. I grew up outside of Philly and we didn't get much snow, but I loved snow. I loved weather. I skied up a chony mountain and went to school for meteorology at Penn State, came out the Boulder for grad school. And this was a, like, I just discovered powder in Colorado and like, oh my gosh, this is so fun. It's also really hard to forecast. I'm wrong all the time. My friends are making fun of me. I'm totally obsessed with it. And I also got an addition during meteorology degree. I got an MBA. So in the back of my mind, I was like, you know, like a start of business of something somehow one day, maybe around weather. And then as this game popularity, this was the deal. And I mean, if I would have told my, whatever, five-year-old, eight-year-old self that this is how it was all going to work out, like, it couldn't have been better. I just, I'm so thankful, so lucky. It's amazing. That said, you know, I still have nightmares about forecasts. I still wake up in cold sweats, you know, to see how much snow is on the snowstake. So it's not easy at all times. And you know, running, you know, running any business is not easy. But this dream come true, honestly. Well, that's awesome. Well, I'm glad there's somebody else waking up with night sweats about how much snow is going to be on the snowstake. It's good to know that there's a kindred spirit out there. But I'm also curious, what about the passion just for weather? You know, like, where did that come from? I think the passion for weather came from calling, what was it? 1-800-322-421-8? Whatever the snow phone was at Shawnee, I just wanted, actually, back east, it wasn't even about snow, right? I just wanted to be cold enough for them to say we're making snow. And then I knew, you know, we could go skiing and then there would be a base. How to otherwise the passion for weather happen? I have no idea. Most people that are meteorologists get bit by the bug early. Elementary school, middle school, tornado or hurricane, a snowstorm, something, you know, captures them. And so for me, probably snow days, you know, trying to figure out when we're not going to have school. And then we can go skiing. But that's pretty amazing, right? Like, it's not like you were into weather and then said, oh, snow is pretty cool. For you, it was really the reverse. It was like, passion about snow and about skiing. And then it was like, oh, wait, how do I figure out how to do this? My parents bought me a weather station when they realized I was obsessed with weather. And I kept hand records, you know, growing up. You know, we didn't have a spreadsheet. Like, you know, I made graph paper and kept weather records. And it was a thing that I was afflicted with in a good way. I suppose, but I always feel really lucky that I have a passion. I wrote down some notes when I was in grad school and after grad school. Like, if I ever started a business, what would I want to start a business around? And it just, number one, what it has to be weather. Like, there is just no other thing, you know, that I care enough about, aside from weather and, and no, so here we are. No, that's awesome. And I'm curious before you started open snow, what were you using, right? For your weather, like, what were you looking at? What did you actually think? Who did you think was doing good job? And how did you, how did you then build on it? Like, how did you make open snow different? Yeah, absolutely. So I had 47 tabs open, probably, in a browser to figure out where to go. Look, I was looking at snow reports. I was looking at cams on C dot site, your Colorado Department of Transportation. I was looking at national weather service, not just forecast, but they have discussions, kind of like these nerdy weather discussions. And Colorado Avenue Information Center. And I was trying to piece it all together, just like, you know, a lot of people are trying to piece it all together. Luckily, I was both obsessed with weather and went to school for meteorology. So I was trying to read between the line and try to take past experience, be like, hey, you know, this is what the forecast says. But the last time it said this, I went out in skiing and I expected a foot of snow and there was one inch and my friends made fun of me. And then I spent all night trying to figure out where I went wrong. So it was just that obsession that digging in. I met with local nation, weather service office folks. I met with local avalanche forecasters, a male. I'll tell you, I would email anybody that would, you know, answer me really, or I thought might answer me. And one of the avalanche forecasters said, hey, I'm happy to run you through my forecast process. My day starts at 5 a.m. Come on into the office and we'll chat. Like, yep, you got it. You know, I'll be there at 5 a.m. So I was just obsessed with trying to figure out the logical kind of it's dying tiffic question of why does it snow more at Vail than Beaver Creek, for instance. But also, of course, I'm an only child. So a lot of what I do, I've been told it's selfish. But this was a real selfish endeavor, right? Because I wanted and for myself and my friends to ski the most powder. So I was trying to figure that out as well. That makes sense. Before the app and the website, you had like a newsletter, right? Or like a yeah. And yeah, because I remember getting that and that was like, I remember when it was first like passed around, it was like a big deal. Like, whoa, this guy. This was a scratch-your-own-itch type of thing. So at first, I was just telling friends where to go ski. And they would make fun of me, but I kept doing it. And then I said, I don't want to keep texting everybody. I'm going to put you all in an email, 37 people. And then they passed it around. And then it was 100. Then it was 300. It was 500. I had a job. Like, this was just a night's and weekends type of thing. That was fun. But then I got great feedback and said, I'll make it a little bit of a blog. And I did that. And then I had some people reach out asking me to advertise. And then people were starting to write news stories about this. And I just thought, well, this might be the culmination of the dream. I was working in the insurance industry around hurricanes and earthquakes and pricing, which was a wonderful place for a meteorologist who also had a business degree. But there was only one thing better, which is forecasting powder. And so eventually, not only do I quit my job and did I start this website, I had to find somebody to help me build the website. I'm technical, but not that good. This was way before vibe coding. And then also, luckily, two other people had this same idea at the same time. Brian Elogredo and Tahoe had started Tahoe Weather Discussion. Evan Thayer and Utah had started Wasatch Snow Forecast. Literally the same season that I started Colorado Powder Forecast. So I called him up and said, hey, I don't think any of us are going to make it on our own. But if we got together, pooled the audiences and helped build a platform, maybe this is going to be a thing. No, it's awesome. Well, it's been incredible. I mean, you, you know, just seeing the kind of impact that you had. And yeah, the pervasiveness, I mean, you know, actually I get asked all the time by investor shareholders media, you know, who do we use to look at the weather. And they're expecting me to talk about this, you know, collection of meteorologists that we have on staff or something. And I'm like, no, it's open snow. I appreciate it. We're all looking at open snow and looking to see what's coming. What do you see next, though? So obviously the app itself is amazing. And I know you've at the storm piece right that you've added. But what do you see as the future with the latest kind of technological advances? Yeah, well, and I'll say that there's this continuum in meteorology. People will sometimes praise us, but often, you know, we'll say, oh, you guys are always wrong, right, but you can keep your job. And so all of this is true. The longer range. forecast beyond around 10 or 15 days, you can usually find pattern. Like are there storms coming or not, but it's too far out to really know for sure. Beyond 15 days, there's not much us as consumers can really do. If we run a commodity's industry or energy trading or something like that, and a small change in probabilities would help your model like a 1% shift, that's useful out two months or three months. But for consumers, like if I knew there was a 1% better chance of a powder day at Whistler, like I'm probably not changing my behavior, right? So beyond two weeks can't help that much in consumer bill. One to two weeks starting to understand where we might be traveling for storms or avoiding storm. And then inside of seven days is really where we're trying to nail the forecast, try to figure out where and when. So we are leveraging all the AI tech that we can mostly for forecasting. This is a real thing. People are trying to figure out how meteorology can leverage LLMs or just what the world looks like with LLMs. But meteorology has been using kind of an AI concept for a long time called machine learning. And so this has helped us to refine the forecast. So we are just in so deep we're trying to answer those questions algorithmically. Why does Beaver Creek get more snow or less snow than bail? There are five miles apart but the snowfall amounts can be vastly different or you know, insert any other mountain, right, in that equation. Now I and other forecasters have rules of thumb in our heads like why what wind directions what temperatures. But what we're trying to do is algorithmically make these forecasts rather than rules of thumb and Joel's head or Brian's head or Evans head. How can we do this in a repeatable testable way? So we are leveraging AI as much as we can with this and then we're also just trying to make the forecasting, the mapping, all of that just easier to use. There's a lot of data here. Some people love the data. Some people love the charts and the graphs and all that. And some people will say, could you just send me a note when I should go skiing on a powder day trying to navigate that as a never ending source of challenge? And what's the hardest thing about forecasting a powder day? Maybe both the technical part of it and maybe the emotional part of it as well. Emotional is the, it's so difficult. I mean, as I see a potential powder day, look, I love skiing snow. Like I told you, I do this not just for everybody else, but for myself, right? So I see a potential powder day. I start thinking how we're going to do it. I start thinking if my son really needs to go to school that day, where if he can join us, right? And then I start thinking about how to ski. And then other people will sometimes graciously say, "Hey, the storm didn't work out." "That's a bummer." "Can you explain it?" "And sometimes people will ungraciously call us all the names." "And that there's some conspiracy." "You know, as if we are out there adjusting the models in a certain way." "Where we want them to get excited." "Indays it advance to the storm." "And then have it not work out." "And like there's some crazy conspiracy." "For a long, long time, over a decade." "All of the forecast data on open snow." "On open snow is automated with an algorithm." "Now we have our hands on that algorithm." "But we are attempting to adjust things like the snow to liquid ratio." "How fluffy it's going to be." "Or we'll certain wind direction, helper, hurt certain mountain." "But we're not in there, monkeying with like, oh, hey, let's make sure each mountain gets more or less snow than the model said." "Like, obviously, we don't have that level of course." "Of detail or adjustment." "And also, I've done this for almost 20 years." "I don't have a second act." "This is the thing that I love to do." "So the number one way we could sabotage ourselves is to not be trustworthy and then not engender an audience that likes us for the next 30 years." "So there's no conspiracy behind the scenes." "And I will wrap this by saying that when a forecast doesn't go right, there was one person that is more mad and more upset than anybody else." "And that's me, and I feel it viscerally for days." "No, I mean, and this obviously came out with a lot of the Nate Silver stuff in 538 around. The forecast is a probability." "You're not saying this is going to happen. You're saying you've taken all these different probabilities and put them together." "And by the way, that's not different than our own as a company. Our own forecast. We put out forecasts of skier visits, and profitability and things like that. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but yeah, thinking that it's just about the forecast is off." "Yeah, one quick thing. What's your take on cloud seeding? Do you have, do you look at that at all?" "Or I've heard companies that are now getting into like cloud for nation and new technologies there. I've just wondered if that's something you've ever looked at or seen where it really works." "Yeah, so there is, so the science of cloud seeding and weather modification has been around for 50 plus years." "Some things don't really work at scale at this point, like stopping a tornado or using a nuclear bomb to stop a hurricane, like that, that's just, it's not working." "However, cloud seeding, which takes clouds that are real close to making precipitation and helping them to make that precipitation, that is a real thing." "It is scientifically correct, real proven, and in fact a couple years ago there was a big field project, which is what meteorologists call it when they send out planes and weather stations and people that kind of out in the field to actually prove or disprove something. But in this case, they proved, they could see that adding silver iodide, these kind of little molecules to a cloud, actually coax that cloud, into producing rain or snow. They could actually see it happen on radar. So it works. It does not, I'll just spell a couple of myths. It does not take a blue sky and term it into a powder date, doesn't work. You need a cloud that's real close to precipitating or precipitating a little bit and just getting it over the hump to precipitating a lot. Depending on the temperature, the wind direction, the moisture, all that stuff, studies show that it can add anywhere between two and 20 percent to a certain storm, to a snowpack, which is not going to make a non-powder day, a powder day, generally speaking. But if we think about 300 inches of snow in a given area and we add 5 or even 10 percent to that adding, I don't know, 15 to 30 inches of snow, over the course of a winter, over the course of hundreds of miles in an area could result in a lot of extra water, which is why all of this has generally been started. Of course, some skiers will likely fund this, but mostly it's water districts. We do not take this into account in our forecasting one because when clouds are being seated, there's not really a real time understanding for us to take that into account. Also because it's so difficult to forecast, adding 10 percent to the snowpack on a 10 inch storm, you're talking to plus or minus one inch, like that's within the error bars of the of the forecast itself. So we're just not taking that into account at this point. That makes sense. And so the so clearly clouds, he would not have saved Colorado and Utah this season. Not now, and we're talking at the tail end of the 2526 season. It would not have have saved us unfortunately. That's not a thing that we can lean on. Eddie, yeah, what's your reflection looking back on this past season in Colorado and Utah? A little bit of sadness. I mean, you're running a business. I'm running a business. A lot of people in the mountain communities are running businesses, but also we derive a lot of our excitement and internal happiness. from it's snowing and from that excitement. I mean, we all wanted to snow from business perspectives, but we also just wanted to snow because we're like school kids and we're just having fun on the hill and running around. So it truly is just some sadness. Meteorologically, there are bad luck seasons. The weather is quite variable. And when you look back, you know, over 1,000 years in the Western United States, you see real big booms and you see real big bust. And that's over 1,000 of the years. And even over the last 100 on there, have been some booms and there have been some bust. So what I look at last season as is just purely bad luck with both low precipitation in most areas and especially very, very warm temperatures. Often that goes hand in hand. And then you look at the Northeast and they had a banner year, right? So often the weather is equalizing if it's not great in one area of the country or the world. It's better in however you define that in the other spot. I would also say that there is background climate change ongoing. So most weather stations show warming temperatures over time. However, especially around the west and here in Colorado where we are, there was no long-term trend in precipitation. So you can pretty easily see the logic there that even if precipitation isn't changing, if temperatures are warming, then maybe you have some challenges with snow levels and the rain snow line. Maybe you have some challenges in fall and in spring. But overall, I just like to remind people that we're not falling off a cliff in terms of precipitation. That said, if it's warmer, there's more evaporation. Stoyles can be a little drier. So even with the same amount of precipitation, there can absolutely still be impacts to the snow pack, to elevations and to water supplies and all those things. But at this point, there's no long-term trend in precipitation here across the Western US. No, I agree. We see that same phenomenon. And obviously, I think when you have a season like this, it reminds us that the weather is highly variable. And certainly, we've been focused on trying to prepare our business for that and trying to prepare the industry for that. And maybe it is going to get more variable. Maybe that is certainly an impact from some of the things we're seeing in the climate. Although this was a tough year for short Colorado when Utah this winter, we didn't get great skiing at all. The bigger focus, obviously, now as we go forward is on the summer season and wildfires and the other impact to the ecosystem that comes from that. We're obviously hard at work trying to plan on what we're going to do for next season. And we're quite confident it will not be like this season. But since this was, I think, by far the worst year on record, over 100 years or whatever, it's total simple. But I'm curious. Yeah, maybe as a final question, what are you excited about when you're thinking about your next year for open snow? What's going to be new and different? And what are you excited to kind of showcase the people? Yeah, absolutely. Well, this is not a forecast. But more of an observation, statistically, there's a very high probability that the 26, 27 season will have more snow throughout the rest than the 25, 26 season. So fingers crossed that we can trust those statistics. For open snow, we have a lot of forecasters on staff and contractors during the winter. So it's not just me, right? There's 10 to 15 forecasters that we work with. And we're leveraging AI heavily, because AI helps tell the story of whether it helps me forecast better. But we're also keeping all of us forecasters around because there is that human connection and that storytelling connection that we love. So I just like to be really clear that while there's so many technological advances in we're working real hard right now, and we're recording this in April. And people think, like, oh, Joel, what do you do all summer? I want-- well, open snow is a year-round forecasting product. And we do cover adventures in the mountains as well during the summer. And we're hard at work for next winter. So we're doing all sorts of technological R&D to try to figure out better forecasting technique. But even as that occurs and return to tell the story better, we will still keep the people around. And it's still really important for that local person to tell the story and to have that emotion. And we're not just weather forecasters, but we're kind of an emotional guide to winter. As well, you know, as for better or for worse. And it's a really fun community. And I try-- you know, when I'm on the hill, I try to stay a little bit low-key. Like, I don't have parties like Joel's on the hill or something like that. But my ski say open snow. My jacket says open snow. So people will come up to me. But it's just really rewarding to talk to everybody and realize like, hey, you're running a business. We're running a business. But also, we're all just trying to have a good time out on the hill. And there are a handful of days that are just super magical. When we have dendrites falling in the sun's breaking during the morning. And it's untouched powder fields. And I'm like, I dream about this 300 and whatever, 60 days a year when I'm not doing it. So I know I just look to-- it sounds kind of like too generic to be true. But it's true. Like, this is what I dream about. And I'm just looking forward to more powder days for my friends and family. And hopefully for the forecast to be incrementally better than it was this year. Well, I think you're kind of like a snow therapist. That would be maybe my-- you help people through all the anxiety, the fear, the excitement, the full range of emotions. And no, I think it's been a critical part of the industry. And I know everybody here is totally grateful for what you do because getting us better information makes our jobs a lot easier. It makes easier for our guests. And I think especially having, yeah, completely unbiased, really thoughtful group that's focused and not only focused right on snow forecasting, but focused on enjoying this in themselves. So you understand the rise and the fall of everybody's emotions when you get through it. And yeah, I love having a partner and crying here trying to weather the weather. So to speak, whether it's good or bad. And super thankful for you taking the time to come on and great to have the chat and look forward to everything. You guys are going to be doing next season. Yep, thanks for having me. And I appreciate that you are as obsessed with snow as I am. And hopefully you lose a little less sleep about it than I do, but maybe not. Well, I'm a little looser than you. So hopefully hopefully I can sleep a little better. We'll sit. Yeah. Thanks, Joel. [MUSIC PLAYING] I hope today's episodes shed some light on an app that so many of us have come to rely on the trust and also a deeper appreciation for what goes into every outer day prediction. To the team behind open snow and snow forecasters everywhere, thank you for the early mornings, the late nights, and the care you put into helping all of us follow along throughout the season. And thank you as always to all of our listeners. I'll see you all out on the hill. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING]