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Powering AI with Energy Storage

37m 15s

Powering AI with Energy Storage

The global competition for AI dominance hinges on both advanced semiconductors and a capable electrical grid. Currently, the U.S. leads in chip technology, while China excels in grid development. A major challenge for the U.S. is scaling renewable energy to meet AI's growing power needs without raising costs or relying on fossil fuels. Renewables like solar and wind are cost-effective but intermittent, creating grid instability. Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is presented as a solution, offering storage from hours to seasons, unlike limited lithium-ion batteries. LDES provides grid reliability, resilience, and ancillary services, with technologies such as thermal, mechanical, and flow batteries advancing. Although LDES faces higher initial costs and regulatory hurdles, its bankability is improving, supported by global projects and partnerships with tech firms. Ultimately, LDES could enable firm renewable power at scale, securing a sustainable U.S. advantage in AI.

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English
[music] Double take listeners, the global race for dominance and artificial intelligence now has a finish line clearly in sight. The winner will be whichever nation is first to build out two key inputs. Leading edge semiconductors and an electrical grid capable of powering all the computing those chips will do. As things stand at the dawn of 2026, China is the clear leader when it comes to erecting an electrical network with all the requisite horsepower and electrons for all those GPUs and TPUs. But when it comes to chips, it's the United States that has the lead thanks to the likes of Alphabet and Nvidia. On today's show, we'll examine whether new developments in the realm of energy storage could be the technology that would help the United States become fully capable of powering the explosive growth of AI without driving up power costs for hundreds of millions of working Americans and businesses. Hi, I'm Ray Fluis, head of Specialist Research at BNY Investments Newton. And I'm Newton investigative research analyst Jack N. Carnasio. You might be asking yourself, how could the storage of electrical power really be the key to unlocking American AI dominance? Well, folks, here's the reason for all those bulls out there betting on nuclear power. None will argue that standing up a new reactor be it a traditional one or, as yet, unproven small modular reactor happens quickly. Nuclear plants often take anywhere from six to ten years to bring online. So maybe you'd think about natural gas-powered electrical plants. Sure, commissioning one of those is pretty quick, but it can take years to get your industrial gas turbines delivered from companies like G. E. Vernava Siemens or Mitsubishi whose order books are beyond oversold. And that leaves renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Now, renewables have a lot going for them. Not only are solar and wind technologies capital cost competitive with legacy power generation, they require almost no running cost once installed. And in the case of solar, they're pretty darn quick to put up. And these generation technologies are obviously more sustainable environmentally. Big problem with renewables, and it's a whopper, is that wind and solar are highly variable sources of power. If the sun ain't shining, wind ain't blowing, you have no power. And what's more, renewable can generate more power than the grid can handle, which leads to some head scratching and even problematic situations. In West Texas, where there's an abundance of renewables, the regional transmission organization Erkott ends up paying to pump power into the grid on 60% of days in any given month. Hardly a situation that would encourage other utilities or RTOs to invest in renewables. Then look at last April's massive power outage in Spain and Portugal, which was likely caused by an overabundance of renewable generation going quiet. And the grid upweighed her being too slow to pivot to natural gas or nuclear sources to fill in the gap. In other words, this thing stands today. Renewables pose a lot of economic and operational risk relative to their costs. And that dear listener brings us back to energy storage. If only there were a class of technologies capable of storing energy, not just for a few hours like today's lithium ion batteries, but for days, months, even seasons, a true long duration solution. The United States and the world could finally unlock firm, renewable power at the scale, the hyper-scalers, the data centers, and AI require while smoothing the balance of electricity for the rest of us. So that in mind, double-takers, we thought we'd bring you a deep dive discussion into where exactly we are in the development of utility scale long duration energy storage, which we believe will be the key to the United States developing a sustainable competitive advantage in AI. And to shed light on this great topic, we have a fantastic guest, Anna Siefkin, director for policy and markets in North America, at the Long Duration Energy Storage Council, a global not-for-profit coalition of businesses racing to crack the long-term power storage canundrum. Anna has previously served as principal deputy director of the U.S. Department of Energy's Federal Emergency Management Program, overseeing the government's $630 billion portfolio-wide purchasing power to decarbonize 3 billion square foot of real estate, about 350,000 buildings. Before that, she held executive leadership roles at Carnegie Mellon University, the Global Business Consultancy ICF, the U.S. Green Building Council, and the Home Depot. Lastly, Siefkin is an appointed U.S. Ambassador for Clean Energy Education and Empowerment. Anna Siefkin, welcome to Double Take. Thank you so much, and I will tell you, though, that although it is an emergency in some works of the country, that's the federal energy management program. The federal emergency management program does something entirely different. So since we're focusing on energy today, I'm going to go ahead and start there, but we really are focused on energy. So it's so great to be a part of this podcast. Thank you so much. Thank you. Well, that's great, because I think it's fair to say that Wall Street is firmly focused on energy these days as well. It is seen as just absolutely critical to everything going on that's driving the market. So why don't we maybe begin with a level set of sorts. For years, there was really only one scalable battery technology available to renewable power developers, and that's lithium ion, the same thing that's in your phones and your laptops. The problem has been, and anyone knows this, who's got a phone or a laptop, is that they're really short duration power storage, with only two to four hours of power storage. Potential lithium ion just simply, you know, it hasn't been able to bridge the gap between when renewables go dark and then light up again. So, you know, I guess my question on lithium ion storage is this, why don't utilities just simply install a massive number of these batteries, given them, you know, the storage capacity they need to fill eight to 12 hours that utilities need, to remove all that variability, you know, that's coming from the renewables. Is it purely a question of economics, or is there a fundamental technology challenge that massive arrays of lithium ion batteries face? You know what, it's a great question, and thank you for letting us start there. So we can start with what the definition of long duration energy storage is. So it's a class of technologies that can go for eight hours or longer, and they include a lot of additional services that you don't get from lithium ion. So lithium ion degrades, as you mentioned, usually somewhere between two and four hours, but we're finding that there are all of these other benefits that you can get from long duration energy storage that you just can't get from lithium ion batteries at those longer durations. So there's things like resource adequacy. So resource adequacy ensures that the grid has enough reliable capacity to meet electricity demand, especially during peak hours or extreme events like heat waves and storms. And so LDes can discharge energy during peak demand periods, like evenings, as you mentioned, when the sun's not shining, because it can last for hours or even days, months, seasons. It lasts significantly longer, and it provides confidence that the supply and the demand are going to be there during those prolonged periods. It also allows for capacity payments. So these are payments made to energy resources just for being available. So it can serve as this backup power, so you can shift energy, but not necessarily the energy just itself. These capacity payments are can be made available to discharge whenever needed, which increases availability and reliability, which are two really important aspects of this. So we have reliability and resilience that are built in. There's also ancillary services, which are things like stability, reliability, which I just mentioned and quality of the electricity. So it does frequency regulation, balancing supply and demand moment by moment. You can manage voltage supply and quick startup backup power. So these are, in many cases, assets that are waiting around, they're there, and they're available, but they're also able to discharge energy over a longer period of time. Sometimes, as I mentioned, seasons. People know a lot are very familiar with POM TIDRO, of which there are a lot of POM TIDRO facilities in the United States right now, but we now have all these new technologies that are coming up, and they don't have some of the risks. And finally, they're just making sure I understand those. But you're saying, if you bought just dozens and dozens and dozens of lithium ion batteries and filled them up at different points during the day, that wouldn't cut it. Is that what I'm here? It doesn't do the same thing. So long duration energy storage is what we call fit for purpose, meaning that you have, based on geography, based on climate, you can have different solutions that will meet these different needs. And we also have, in many cases, technologies that are completely benign. So we do reduce the fire risk that is associated with lithium ion. So there's a safety component, because many of these technologies, in fact, I've seen some of them where the chemicals, the chemistries are completely recyclable. So this thing not only does it not degrade over time, but you have this opportunity to continue using it for years and decades, because it doesn't degrade. So you might have a slightly higher upfront cost, the CAPEX can be higher. But over time, you're actually getting yourself a payment back. In fact, arbitrage is a really important part of this too, because you can buy electricity when it's cheap. And then you can dispatch it during other times, so you can capture larger price spreads during its discharge. So those are all things that you cannot get from lithium ion. It's just, it's a battery that goes up and down, up and down. It can discharge a lot, but the degradation doesn't make it a long term solution. Long duration energy storage becomes a solution that can be around for a really, really long time. This is great, Anna, so can you give us a rundown of some of the most promising innovations you're seeing in these longer duration energy storage technologies, thermal, mechanical flow batteries beyond? What's moving really from pilot scale to commercial reality right now? And what does that mean for AI-driven power demand? So we are seeing all kinds of technologies that are moving very, very quickly. But as I mentioned, they are fit for purpose. So we don't necessarily pick our favorites between all of the different technologies. We are interested in having the entire market move forward. So you might find a molten rock products solution that's moving really quickly in one area of the world. And somewhere else there is a vanadium flow product that's working. So we don't actually have a really, I mean, we map every single project that's happening around the world, but we don't necessarily talk about who's winning and losing. Because in actuality, we want everyone to win. We want all of these technologies to move forward, and they're all so different. Fair enough, but I mean, if you look at just the installed capacity out there in the world of any, you know, long duration energy storage, is there one that's clearly kind of in the lead right now? Well, we're seeing some partnerships that are coming together. So those are the best ones that I can talk about. So we have like energy dome has partnered with Google. So that's a technology that's moving forward. We've seen projects that have come together in Italy, and now we're seeing some plant in different parts of the world. We have another product and that's a CO, like a compressed CO2 project. It takes about 11 acres. So it's a bigger project and then we have other technologies that are smaller container sized that are moving out as well in the United States. We have EOS, which is also doing really well right now. And another one called tariff low, which is in Katie, Texas. They are also working very closely with data centers, which I know was one of the things we're most keen to talk about today is how can we really use these associated with data centers? Because that is a really, really important thing. And I would ask you to double click on that if you could, because I think the narrative around powering AI data centers is our intro indicated shifted very quickly to natural gas turbines, because those were sort of the most readily available, sort of non-colle source that folks could tap and the limitations of your renewables stood in such a way where perhaps it wasn't feasible to immediately begin planning all of this rush of capacity around renewable generation. What would you say in terms of why you don't think renewables were really baked in the cake on powering data centers from the beginning. And what's going to change that? I mean, we're talking about long-term energy storage, which is great. But I wonder sort of what your perception would be on why, in the very beginning, these hyperscalers weren't ready to commit to renewable powering of more data centers than we've seen. You know, it's another great question. I think that there is a misperception that LDAS technologies aren't quite ready. Because that risk and that perception of the risk is something that continues to hit really hard. So people think about TRL levels when they're talking about technology readiness. But what we're seeing is that there are these four different classifications of LDAS. There's thermal, mechanical, and chemical plus electrochemical. So those different kinds of technologies are at different various stages of readiness. But this between the high upfront capital costs, maybe an inadequate valuation and market structures that aren't quite ready, that perception of that technology, not being as mature as it actually is. There are actually regulatory and policy gaps that get in the way in some places. Because many states, the procurements that are coming out don't necessarily value all of those things that I was talking about for LDAS. And then there's really just like complexity around grid infrastructure connection, right? So interconnection is something that people talk about a lot. Because there are these cues, there's permitting reform that needs to happen. Those are some of the things that have gotten in the way of not only additional storage solar projects, but also storage projects. And then I'm going to call them good enough technologies, right? So there are a lot of kind of technologies that can make, can do the job, but they can't deliver all of these other services that we've talked about. I got to say there's uncertainty, there's a lot of uncertainty and volatility right now. And so long-term revenue streams have been very difficult for us to feel ready, feel certain. And so you pair that with environmental and citing considerations. And you really get into some areas where people just, particularly investors and finance years, are just not quite ready to move forward in the way that we hoped that they would. So we have to look like on a per megawatt basis, right? I mean, you were talking about the high upfront costs, capital costs are, I guess, are what they are. But if you look on a per megawatt basis and kind of over the life of the purchase or maybe the upfront, let's slice and dice it a couple ways, how do some of the more mature iterations of this long duration energy storage compare to lithium ion in terms of when I'm a Google and I'm looking to invest in a storage capacity or, frankly, in a renewable source of power for an AI data center and I need to smooth out these peaks and valleys like you were talking about. Can you talk a little on the economic top? So I can talk more readily about the CAPEX because what we are seeing is these projects, the upfront costs are higher. In some cases, it can be 10, 20 percent higher, sometimes a little bit higher than that. But again, that's not massive. I thought you were going to say 10, 20 times. No, no, no, no, it's initial CAPEX can be significant. It depends on the project, the size of the project, the amount of energy that's needed. It also depends on the deal that's made, right? And the cost of money, the finance ability. Some of that is we've covered in this bankability report that we've just put together. So I want to talk a little bit about that, but there are, I guess, I just want to go back to that bigger picture because when we think about, yes, the cost competitively, L does is still working to become more bankable. It's still working on that cost. And is that, when you say bankable, that term is meaning kind of cost competitive, basically, is that the idea? So bankable is bigger than that. It includes, it's like the degree of confidence that a financial institution or investor or a project developer might have. So they want to know that an L does technology or a project can generate this reliable, predictable and sufficient financial return under the relevant operating, marketing, and regulatory conditions in a market. So the financing structures, which I mentioned are not always perfect, including things like non-recourse or limited recourse debt are acceptable to the lenders, similar to mature renewable projects. So in other words, it's about whether the capital providers trust that a project will perform technically and financially over its lifetime, and that the project revenues and the risk profile justify investment. So this report that we have recently completed has been a labor of love, right? Because it's really important for this message to get across, that these projects are bankable. We're seeing those technologies deployed in other parts of the world. We have a lot of projects that are coming together in India, China, Australia, the UK, Spain, Italy. There are other parts of the world that are seeing success with these projects, just because they're thinking about them differently, because we want to work with bankability on business models and revenue certainty. So quite a few things that we can discuss in that area. Yeah, that's great. You mentioned the report bankability from the LBS Council. Can you tell us maybe one or two of the key findings, maybe things that folks might have misapprehensions about or might have misconceptions about that the report brings forward. So the report is, they're the findings we brought together a group of investors, technology companies at New York Climate Week and at London Climate Week because we wanted these kind of diverse points of view and pulled together a report, really a white paper, that's focused on how we can accelerate, and we found a number of structural factors that we think are really important in terms of attracting capital to these kinds of projects at scale, right? So the one project, the first of the kind is we're trying to get beyond that. We're really trying to instill confidence that these technologies are going to work. So again, I mentioned that business model and revenue certainty, capital alignment, so making sure that the type of capital matches the project's maturity. There are technical and commercial standards like benchmarks and comparability across technologies and projects because unlike lithium ion, which we've been talking about, each of these technologies is different. So it's not like we, we have to talk about an entire class of technologies instead of just one technology. There are market signals that we're waiting for and we're starting to see them because of flexibility, resilience and capacity services. There are procurement mechanisms, so we want to see credit worthy credit worthy off-takers out in the market, making sure that they're making these projects have reduced risks and show that their markets are actually more stable because of them. Cost of capital is a big area, public financing guarantees whether or not the federal government is going to step in and projects like this, then there's early stage financing support. So there's quite a few structural things that we found through this and the last really is those local and emerging market risk structures. So it's actually an entire suite of issues that still exist, but many of them we are knocking down one at a time. That's fantastic. So, you mentioned a little bit that there's a few other countries that may be kind of moving a little faster on this than the United States. And I'm wondering how much federal subsidy schemes in these countries have played into that. Are backing from governments beyond just maybe loan guarantees and things like that, but actual tax credits and other structures that can incentivize the deployment of long-duration energy storage? Well, I think one of the structures that we've seen of privilege to really, a particular success, one of them is actually earmarking or sort of doing a carve out and having it so that short duration and long duration don't necessarily compete with each other. They're complimentary. They don't have to compete with one another, in fact you can have one within your system and then switch to the other and have a more secure, more resilient system. We're also seeing things like cap and floor in the UK that's been very successful in terms of ensuring that we have the right amount of LDS long-duration energy storage on a system. We're also seeing it in industrial scale, so we've been talking a lot about electrons so far. There's a whole area that we haven't even talked about, which is power to heat. So industrial heat is another area of real importance for LDS. So not only can it deliver power, it can deliver heat to industrial plants. So when you start thinking about a whole ecosystem, you've got all of these different things that can happen. You've seen in the Netherlands that there's a company called Kraftblock that's working with PepsiCo to produce potato chips with clean heat. So around the world, we're seeing these projects come together. Heineken is using a 100 megawatt hour heat battery from Rondo at their brewery in Portugal. So these projects are popping up around the world and what we're seeing as a council because we are a membership organization, global, nonprofit. We're tracking all of that and our goal is to showcase the important projects that are happening around the world so that we can see that those kinds of projects can happen more in the United States. But just so I understand, though, how much of those examples is driven by tax credits and subsidies, because that's how when we look at the development of solar, particularly rooftop solar for residential purposes, I mean, in Germany, that was a massive accelerant to that industry, the subsidy schemes there. And then the IRA had a bunch of interesting ones, too, when it came to electric vehicles, for example, and things like that. So I mean, are we seeing countries out there that are leaning into long-duration energy storage as a kind of policy goal? They are. The United States is not necessarily in that position right now. They have been in the past, and they likely will be again in the future. There are countries that are going to leave, they're moving on this. I like to think back to a comment that Tom Steyer made earlier this year when he said the investment that's happening in these technologies is going to continue. It might be a quiet or move, but we're finding ways to do this financing. So I will say that the incentives in the United States, so let's talk about the United States and then kind of everywhere else. So in the United States, we did have those incentives that pushed forward on clean energy for the past few years. We've seen a lot of those projects pull back. We've also seen quite a few of those projects that are figuring out financing and ways to move forward. I will say that. So there are some of them that won't be able to make the numbers pencil, but as many of them as possible that we can find, promote, pull together partnerships, make sure that people meet one another, that convening is an important part of what our industry is doing behind the scenes. So Europe, yes, there are Texas. There are incentives. In fact, we have experts on our team who are tracking every single one of them so that we understand what RFPs are coming out, what procurement mechanisms are being considered. And they are varied across the world. There are countries that are really pushing forward and moving ahead. And I can imagine that their incentive structures are very different from ours. And that's probably as much as I can say about how incentives work in the rest of the world because it is very complex. Sure. You mentioned folks finding ways to keep the financing moving on these projects, maybe innovating new ways of financing with maybe some pullback on government subsidy here in the United States. Can you give us a broad stroke idea of what's working around financing these, what kind of pivots are happening and financing that seems to have promise? Well, if we see Google partnering with Energy Dome, that tells me that they've figured out a mechanism to make it work. So I'm not necessarily saying that the governments are going to be behind some of those things, but we're finding that the deals are coming together. It might be a little bit slower in the United States, it might be a little bit slower. But generally speaking, we are finding ways that the projects are moving forward. So again, interesting as a nonprofit organization, I'm not in their books. I can't see all of their deals and I can't see what makes them move forward. I just see the success that happens on the other end. So what we want to do is educate, advocate, make sure that the market conditions are ready, that the California is thinking about this and that Virginia is thinking about this. Virginia has this huge number of data centers coming in the future. Even County in particular is being hit really hard with all of this electricity need. So imagine if we had this technology and you could smooth out the power for those residents, you could make sure the hospital still keeps going because right now data centers are doing an energy grab. So we're trying to make sure that we're thinking about the entire system and that we're educating as many of those data center builders and those IPPs, the EPCs, all of the different groups who are a part of that so that they understand the importance of long-duration energy storage in terms of storing that power, smoothing out that power, and being available and ready when that power is needed so that everything else continues to move smoothly. We want this to be a smooth process for everyone. Yeah, that sounds like an admirable goal. And when you think about the deployments we've seen from the Googles and the Heineken's and the Pepsi's and people like that, how much of this is about fulfilling a net zero pledge versus kind of operational economic goals for your, it may be industrial heat or it may be powering your data center, whatever it might be, I mean, how do you think about that give and take there? Well, I think there are companies that are continuing to move forward. There's others that aren't, right? There are others that, you know, they had ESG-related goals. Some of them are just pressing on with those ESG goals. Others are not, you know, they, it has to make financial sense. I mean, we're talking about stakeholders here, they're going to have to do what their stakeholders want. So what we're finding is that stakeholders are really interested and continue to be interested in the environment, air quality, their constituents, people, communities. They are still interested, or honestly, they're not, they're going to continue moving forward with business as usual, but what we're, we have, and it's coming out soon, a benchmarking study where we are tracking all of the cost declines because that's an important, right? We're talking about investment here. So we're seeing cost declines by 2030, which is improving affordability and scalability for grid reliability and decarbonization, right? So we'll use that word in a lot of circles right now, but we are finding that they have goals that they're continuing on those paths. And so we've gone and aggregated all of this information to get credible insights and kind of understand the cost trajectory. So like a Moore's law for long duration energy storage, is that what we're kind of talking about here? It is. Yep. But it just, it continues, but they're doing it maybe for under an umbrella of financial. I mean, all of this has financial benefits because if your customers are happier and they're not calling your call center because their lights are still on and they don't know how close you came to having a blackout or a brownite, I mean, I got into the energy industry because of blackouts and brownouts in California. And we're back at that spot again. So how can we make sure that the entire system is so resilient that customers don't know how close they came, right? That's part of what you want as a corporation. You want to make this seamless electrical experience, electricity experience. And long duration energy storage has shown to play an incredibly strong part in that. And one way that we're seeing it, and I want to kind of point in a different direction, is an initiative that we're a part of called greening the islands, right? Because island nations are really, they're, well, they're already islanded, right? They need to get power no matter what. So those islands are relying on things like long duration energy storage to make sure that they keep the lights on. Same story, whether you're an island or a corporation or a neighborhood, municipality or city. You want to keep the lights on. So these are all target audiences for Aldous. And if I could just revisit one thing on my last question here for you. You mentioned a couple of times during the course of the conversation revenue as an important consideration. And I think I took your meeting there, but I'd like to, to double down just to make sure I understand the revenue generating possibilities of the facilities that are powered with long duration energy storage. Could you get into that a little bit for us? Yeah. So that is called arbitrage. So it's, when you can buy electricity when it's cheap. So that would be at night or during high renewables output. And you sell it when it's expensive, which is the peak demand period. And then Aldous stores it for long periods. So it allows it to capture large price spreads across multiple hours or days. So for example, you can store this excess solar energy during a sunny day and release it 24 to 48 hours later during a cloudy high demand period. So this longer storage means more flexibility and it has these better arbitrage opportunities. Okay. Last one from me, we talked about it at the very top of the show that there's really an AI race going on between the United States and China. And when we look at that race, we've seen several bottlenecks and choke points, whether it be that Nvidia at the moment may have the leading chip for building out an AI data center or it might be that China has a lock on the critical minerals for certain battery types and other kinds of construction. So when you look at some of the more promising long duration energy storage solutions, can you speak a little bit to the supply chain situation there and whether the United States can build a sustainable supply chain to outfit its energy grid with long duration energy storage? So glad you circled back to this because it's really important. Lithium ion is not something that we have in huge supply in the United States. So we are energy dependent as long as lithium ion is in the mix. There are some other minerals that are also kind of in that same category like cobalt, for example. We can mine them in the United States but it takes land, it takes resources and it's very difficult to get those kind of new minds opened or reestablished. So from a supply chain perspective, there are a couple of important benefits of long duration energy storage. So one of them is that these products, many of them don't use lithium ion and they use off the shelf, literally off the shelf chemistries and technologies. So I've got companies that are a part of our membership who everything associated 95% comes from the United States and in most cases within 500 miles, right? So they really are thinking about their supply chain. It's like they're coming of age, these United States based companies. They're coming of age right at the time when supply chain became such a barrier like a stop. And they were innovative, true American innovation at its best. How can we solve these problems and use the chemistries and things that we can find nearest? So a number of these which are using that kind of local technology, they don't have any issues at all with any of the fiat related, which is the foreign entities of concern that the DOE and the government are thinking about right now, there's just not even issues. The second thing that's great is that as I mentioned, we're fit for purpose. So in many cases, if there is a supply chain barrier or some sort of stop in a supply chain, there's a different technology that can step in. So you have your choice if we're in an era when one thing is more difficult, well, we just switch to a different kind. And many of the technologies that are coming together, the really innovative ones, are also thinking about fuel stock neutral, right, feed stock neutral, right? So they could use solar now or maybe they use a different fuel type now, but they could pivot to something else in the future. It could be nuclear. So there are conversations about nuclear and hydrogen associated with these storage solutions as well. So there are quite a few benefits associated with not having, you know, China is moving forward on this really quickly, but we are in the game. Actually, we should probably just have you comment real quickly to wrap things up, I guess, on where China is in their deployment and development of long duration energy storage solutions. Yes, so they are deploying Eldas at significant scale. So particularly compressed air, energy storage, flow batteries and large pump storage expansions. So their central planning system allows rapid procurement and deployment of multi-hundred megawatts systems that firm renewable output. And we've been hearing all about the recent news about how far ahead they are in solar, they also help to stabilize their provincial grids with high wind and solar penetrations. So the deployments demonstrate how multi-hour storage can make variable renewables operate more like firm generation. And that's what it looks like. Wow. So the racial-based low generation with renewables, while? That's right. They're not really transparent on their cost or operational data. So we are kind of at a disadvantage because many of our companies are transparent about the way they do things. And we're not necessarily seeing that, but we do hear a lot of activity that's happening in China. Yeah, it definitely looks like Eldas long duration energy storage has aced at the table. As we talk about just an increasingly dizzying power demand and a 26th and beyond. And a Seafkin director for policy and markets in North America at the long duration energy storage council. We want to thank you so much for joining us on Double Take in taking us through this. I appreciate being here. Thank you for the opportunity.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The global AI race depends on two key inputs
  2. Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is critical for enabling renewable energy to reliably power AI growth, overcoming the intermittency of solar and wind.
  3. LDES technologies offer advantages over lithium-ion batteries, including longer storage duration (hours to seasons), enhanced grid services, safety, and sustainability.
  4. Challenges to LDES adoption include higher upfront costs, regulatory gaps, and market uncertainties, but bankability and commercial deployment are progressing globally.
  5. Partnerships between tech companies and LDES developers are emerging, with applications for data centers being a key focus to support AI-driven power demand.

Summary:

The global competition for AI dominance hinges on both advanced semiconductors and a capable electrical grid. S. leads in chip technology, while China excels in grid development.

S. is scaling renewable energy to meet AI's growing power needs without raising costs or relying on fossil fuels. Renewables like solar and wind are cost-effective but intermittent, creating grid instability.

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is presented as a solution, offering storage from hours to seasons, unlike limited lithium-ion batteries. LDES provides grid reliability, resilience, and ancillary services, with technologies such as thermal, mechanical, and flow batteries advancing. Although LDES faces higher initial costs and regulatory hurdles, its bankability is improving, supported by global projects and partnerships with tech firms.

S. advantage in AI.

FAQs

The two key inputs are leading-edge semiconductors and an electrical grid capable of powering the computing those chips will do.

Renewables are highly variable; they don't generate power when the sun isn't shining or wind isn't blowing, and they can produce excess power that the grid can't handle, leading to economic and operational risks.

LDES refers to technologies that can store energy for eight hours or longer, offering benefits like resource adequacy, capacity payments, and ancillary services, unlike lithium-ion which typically lasts only 2-4 hours and degrades over time.

Examples include thermal, mechanical, and chemical/electrochemical solutions such as molten rock products, vanadium flow batteries, compressed CO2 projects, and container-sized systems like those from EOS or Tariff Low.

Initial hesitation was due to perceptions of LDES technologies not being ready, high upfront costs, inadequate market structures, regulatory gaps, grid interconnection challenges, and uncertainty around long-term revenue streams.

The upfront capital expenditure for LDES can be higher, sometimes by 10-20% or more, but it offers longer lifespan and additional grid services that lithium-ion cannot provide.

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