Political Experts React to VIRAL Ads from Democrats

Obama says it's a pretty good shot, Fyfer. I'm not sure you could get it off in a game though. - The bar's pretty low, Dan. In the land of the blind, the one I've been is king. - Welcome to "Little River's React." Jordy me, once again, Alex Wagner. Alex, how are you? - I'm just delighted when we get to talk Senate races. I feel like something was snatched from us in addition to being, you know, really bad for democracy and women, we can't talk about Grand Bladder anymore. - We know what. - It's kept us apart, honestly. I had a over-under of three minutes on the Grand Bladder reference, and you did it in 15 seconds. So, before we even ask me how I was doing. - I can't do a podcast with you without talking about the media. - We're gonna have to try, because we're gonna talk about it today. - We're gonna talk about it today. - All right, today we're gonna talk about two Senate races, the Michigan Senate race and the iOS Senate race. We're gonna look at some ads, it's videos. We're gonna start with an ad from Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El Sayed. - Billionaires, Trump donors, and A-PAC are spending $50 million. The spiraging Abdul El Sayed. - They're trying to trick us. - Flooding our TVs with attacks and lies. I want to keep our money here and Michigan press water coming out to room. - They have millions of Abdul, his Bernie, AOC, nurses. - Teacher, UAW. - Working people. - Democratic leaders across Michigan. - And Abdul. - Abdul. - Abdul fights for change. - I'm Abdul El Sayed, I approve this message, and I respectfully ask for your vote. - That's it, I'm ready for a major speech. - What? - What do you think it is, Ed? - Bernie Sanders has more energy in his 84-year-old body than most 48-year-olds. Like, I cannot believe that dude is 48. I just need to put that out there. - He's screwed, he's screwed. - I don't, I guess I'm a little confused. As a piece of like, you know, advertising, it's good. But in terms of like what it meaningfully does for his campaign, he is established as the progressive in this race. And if people are hesitant about pulling the lever for Abdul on Tuesday, it's because they're worried that he's not gonna be able to win win over swing voters, independent, centrist Democrats, whatever. And this is just doubling down on the sort of progressive credentials. He has not said he is a Democratic socialist, but for all intents and purposes, he has seen as one. And this ad only, I think solidifies that impression. He's out there with AOC and Bernie, and they're the sort of linch pins of the ad. So like, as a piece of primary election advertising, I guess it's good 'cause it'll get the base excited. But it also, I think undercuts his argument for the general and potentially even among some skeptical Democratic primary voter. So I'm a little confused. I did see a couple faces of color in there. Prominent, you know, voices from black Americans in that ad. And that is not a coincidence 'cause Abdul is facing some skepticism amongst black voters in Michigan for being part of, or supporting the uncommitted vote in 2024 in the primary. And there's tension, I think, because of that, between black voters and Arab American voters in the state. So he's clearly trying to make some inroads there. But overall, I'm confused by it. I'm trying to understand what they're trying to get done here. I don't know what do you think, Dan? - Yeah, it's not his best ad. I mean, his message is so finely tuned to this campaign that it can be a call and response, which is money in your pocket, money out of politics, Medicare for all, this ad does not do that. And it's what it's really doing is trying to, is doing two things that I think are maybe a little in conflict. One is it's pointing out that all these people that you don't like, corporations, Trump donors, A-PAC, which has a 49% unfavorable rate in Michigan in polling, want to beat him. So if I am judged me by who hates me, essentially what he's saying. And all these people, you hate me. Therefore, I must be good. And he's having that message delivered by AOC and Bernie, who are very, very popular with Democrats, primary voting Democrats. So that is true. The second part of this ad is trying, I think is trying to say, we have this broader coalition that's not just progressives, we have nurses, we have UAW, as you say, there's diverse voices in there and to your point about the struggles that Abdulaz had with black voters in the Emerson poll that came out earlier this week, he was down 30 points to Haley Stevens with black voters. Part of that is, with historic tensions between the Arab, American community and the black community in Michigan, part of that is the uncommitted. Part of it is that first A-PAC and then Haley Stevens have been run and spent tens of millions of dollars on ads featuring Barack Obama talking about Haley Stevens. We're gonna look at Haley Stevens at a minute. From 2018, very positively. So a lot of people believe he has endorsed her. He has not endorsed anyone in this race. - Yeah, I think the ad is, I agree with you, he is very much very much trying to win this primary by jacking up turnout among young people, progressives, people who very much hold his position on Israel and the anti-A-PAC views. Can that turnout get any higher than it already is? I'm not really sure about that. - Well, yeah, and the polling we have right now, I mean, it's national polling about Democratic. People who are self-ident, Democrats who self-identify as Democratic socialists, I think it's like a third of Democrats now and they are overwhelmingly motivated and excited to vote this year, I should say, 'cause we're talking about a primary next Tuesday, but I cut you off. - Yeah, but as you pointed out, Abdul is not a DSA candidate. He has never been a member of the DSA. He has not endorsed by the DSA. There are some reports of the DSA organizers on the Roanoke and the Michigan to help him. Obviously, there's some ideological similarity around issues like abolish ICE and Medicare for All. Although there are a lot of a pro-abolish ICE, pro-abolish Medicare for All candidates running all across the country who are not Democratic socialists. He has not been for abolishing the Senate or abolishing prisons or those sorts of things, which is actually made this whole thing hard to talk about because everyone keeps treating Abdul's at the DSA candidate. - Well, right, that's why I'm confused. 'Cause he, I mean, you do an ad with AOC and Bernie and it's gonna be a very small needle to thread to suggest you're not really a DSA candidate. - Yeah, I mean, you're gonna have to say, I mean, he's been asked about this many times and he says, no. - Wait. - Well, make 'cause I think that there is the DSA like the Democratic Party has a branding problem, right? Where it's like the brand Democratic Socialist is, hurt you, even if there are parts of the agenda, not the whole agenda, but there are parts of it that are popular. You would prefer not to be called a Democratic Socialist, the, you know, in Wisconsin, where there's actually Democratic Socialists likely to be a nominee. The Democratic Socialist brand is 23 points underwater. The Democratic Party is 21 points underwater, so it's like, it gets a good view worse. But I look, Abdul is on a great campaign. He is in the, you know, this is gonna come out the day before the primary. He is in all the polls that shows him leading by a large margin. Whether those polls are right, we have no idea. Whether he always, you know, we don't know that. He has that very, very good message. That message does not show up in this campaign. And to me, you want to end a campaign with what you got to this point, which is money your pockets, money out of politics, Medicare for all. - Yeah, the issues, because also that makes the, that widens the impression of what he is, I think, about as well. Whereas I think the aperture closes a little bit when you see AOC and Bernie, even if you love them, just saying. - No, no, I agree, I agree. It's the, you, you're not trying to expand your basis of support with this ad. And theoretically, that's, you know, there are two approaches here. One is jack up turn on among your people. The other is bill as broad a coalition as possible. You can win the primary with the former. You cannot win the general with the, you need the latter to win the general. - Yeah, and I guess I would say the only caveat is, like there is a portion of the democratic, you know, electorate in Michigan that's going to be voting on Tuesday that is worried about, I don't want to say the word electability, but they are concerned about that fundamental thing. And if you have, if he has work to do among any group, it's that group. And I don't think this ad addresses that at all. - Yeah, that's correct, that's correct. - Okay, now let's look at an ad from his opponent, Haley Stevens, this is our closing ad that went up for the final weekend. - There's those cool kids on the internet, making fun of how I talk. But let's be real, they're making fun of Michigan. Their jokes makes me fight harder, just like I did when I was working for President Obama. Like I'm doing, standing up to Trump to stop ICE. They might not like how I sound, but I am going to make them sure they hear us in the halls of power. I'm Haley Stevens and I approve this message. - What do you think of this one? - Oh man, I mean, I don't generally like, if you're gonna start in a defensive posture and like ridicule the cool kids, you better have like a really great ad. And I don't think this is that ad. There's clearly an effort to establish her as the favorite by starting with, you know, footage of her with Jim Clyburn, again, reaching out to the black community in Michigan and Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom endorsed her. But like what is Haley Stevens, the whole thing is what is Haley Stevens about? And you don't get any sense of that. They show headlines of Haley Stevens slamming Trump on ICE, but like what meaningfully is her candidacy about? Like what's the closing argument? And you don't get it at all. Other than it's a defensive reaction to cool kids, AKA podcasters, AKA Abdul Al-Sayed and people who like him, dissing her candidacy and her voice, which admittedly is unusual. I don't think it's a good idea. And misogynistic and to be clear. Yes, of course, but we women live in that misogynist baked in, but yes, of course. of course, there's some misogyny in there, but it also is like, it'd be one thing if she was using her unusual voice to articulate like the battle plan and the priorities, and we don't get that. We just get periodic and, you know, opportune mentions of the fact that she worked for President Obama and is trying to ride those coattails after working on, you know, the auto bailout, whatever, 16, 17 years ago. I mean, to me, it's just woefully insufficient. - Yeah, I, I don't know that I hate this ad, but it is, in some way similar to the Abdul Zad, it suffers from something that I see a lot these days from ad makers who are trying to, they're definitely trying to get attention to get eyeballs, which has never been harder to do. And you get a little internet brain-pilled. - Mm-hmm. - So imagine you are someone who has not decided who you're gonna vote for in this race. When she says the thing that the cool kids on the internet are making fun of me, you have no context for that. - Yeah. - Just none, like you have no, you have to be such a sicko like we are to know that there is this video of an organizing rally that went viral because people were making fun of her voice and how she talked and it became this whole thing online and people were comparing her accent in 2018 to her accent. Now, calling her a seven-year-old, live character, all of that. And that she, I think, definitely turned that her advantage by leaning into it. But that's all within this elite group of people already knew who they're gonna vote for. And so to put that into mass communication to me, suggest you're trying so hard to go viral that you've lost the plot. The rest of the ad is good, like her argument is. Like, I agree with you that she has suffered in this race from not having a real articulation of what she brings to the table other than two things. One, three things I'd say. One is that she's a very effective legislator. She puts that, she says that all the steps. She won at some point in award for Michigan's most effective legislator in the House. Democrat House, I don't think it was. - The bars pre-low down. - Yeah, yeah. But I think a lot of people-- - In the land of the blind, the one I'm in is King. - Exactly, exactly. So that's one. Two is that she's very, very pro-Michigan, very focused on Michigan. And that goal is this sort of celebrity type. And he's a celebrity because he had a podcast. I would say. - Oh, crooked media. - On crooked media, about public health. So, and then the third thing is that she, and this is the biggest one, is that she is more electable than empty. That she, that he is too vulnerable. She will win. The, that third one isn't addressed in the ad anyway, shape or form. And the third one has fallen on deaf ears. If you believe the poll-- - Well, I think it's, I think it's subtly in there 'cause you have Clyburn and Whitmer in there. Like-- - Also, no one knows who James Clyburn is. - No one. - Shut your mouth. - They do not. - Black people in Michigan do. - They do not. - Yes, they do. - They do not. - Okay, whatever. - I disagree. - I disagree. - Okay, it's very possible. We'll, we'll come back soon. - I don't know. He's like a real leader in the party. I mean, maybe that's two inside baseball, but Jim Clyburn is, I mean, I think if he is a kingmaker and national politics, which is in part why Joe Biden got the nomination. - He absolutely is a kingmaker in South Carolina politics, I agree with that. - Okay, all right. We'll disagree to disagree. I mean, maybe I'm too sick in the head and think everybody follows members of like Congress who are in their 80s. Anyway, I'll shush, I'll shush. - I mean, ultimately it's her standing with a black man on stage. - In Gretchen Whitmer. - In Gretchen Whitmer thing obviously should have value. Right, she is a popular governor of the state. We'll see what happens on Tuesday. But like you wanna, if you have her endorsement, you wanna put her in your ad for sure. And they've done a lot of, there's a direct-to-camera Gretchen Whitmer explaining her endorsement of Haley Stevens as well. - I just don't really know what the ad, like Abdul Zat, I don't know what either of them are accomplishing as I under, - Agree. - In terms of what it ladders up to their actual strategy. - I don't get, I just like the purpose of both of these ads remains like somewhat of a mystery to me other than she wanted to have a little viral, a meme. - And I think that the Abdul Zat is a similar in the sense that it's, you have Bernie and I say, who are popular figures? But then it's like, you got the thing at the end and that's kind of charming, I guess, but it's still, you have 30 seconds and you have to spend three seconds on the disclaimer at the outset 'cause the FEC law is stupid. And then you have to spend, you're gonna spend a second and a half at the end on Bernie yelling about something. And it's like, what exactly are you doing? - I know, I agree, I will say, you know, the reason we are looking at this race so on such a granular level is because I think this is the race to look at in terms of how Democrats manage the Israel question in 2028. And like, you know, obviously that's not part of me, either one of these ads, but like, there are gonna be a lot of inferences drawn from whatever happens on Tuesday. And then, subsequently, what happens in November? So, I mean, the biggest, most relevant part of this is not in either one of these ads, but is the reason that I think we're all paying such close attention to this. - And hasn't been in the paid community, which is the interesting, it has not really been in the paid communications in this race. APAC, which is spent, I think in the end, it will spend $60 million to elect Ali Stevens. I don't think it's ever mentioned Israel in one ad. - Amazing. Amazing. But APAC has been mentioned. - Yeah, and it was mentioned APAC as many times. - As mentioned, they got all the time, yes. - And as I mentioned, in the Detroit, and there was a Michigan poll earlier this year that had APAC's favorable unfavorable as 1249, which is interesting, which shows how much of an issue it is in this race because national, that's about 13 points higher than of name ID than at APAC as nationally. Part of that is because it's in some ads in this race, far more such a big discussion in the race. Michigan is unique. - Well, they're a huge Arab American population. Yeah, so ironically, the thing that is probably most relevant and most important in terms of democratic dynamics heading into 2028 is not mentioned or discussed in any pain communications in this race, but it will be the takeaway for months to come. - Yes, and I cannot wait for this primer to be over because I hate every second of it. - Yes, me too, agree. - Let's pivot to something a little more. - I know, I guess it was awesome. - Here is a video from Iowa Senate candidate, Josh Turk, featuring the one and only Barack Obama. (upbeat music) - Well again. Who's got next? I got it. You ready for me, Josh? - I'm ready. - Let's go, are we playing horse or what? - We're playing Iowa. - I know a little something about winning Iowa. - All right, here we go. - Are we ready? - You know when it's in. - Come on, I'm not going to just give it a work. - All right. - I think it's silky smooth. - Thousands of hours of practice. You were the shooter four-time Paralympian, two-time gold medalist. Back to back, gold medals. - Okay. - I told you, I'm not just going to give it away to you. - How do we move our state forward? How do we move the country forward? - I don't want to tell you what, people all across Iowa are saying that they're feeling that hope, that optimism for the first time in a long time. - That's my sense. That's why I think it's going to happen. - I've seen enough, not only did I get whooped, but you've got here a man, a character. Somebody who knows how to win. Now the ball's in your court, Iowa. Let's make sure that we send Josh Turk to the United States Senate. - Within 24 hours, this video had received 3.2 million views on Josh Turk's social council loans. It doesn't count for all the other coverage of it, which is equivalent to the population of the entire state of Iowa. What do you think of it? It's not an ad. It's a video, so it's not on TV. - I mean, like after living in like the cave of, I mean, we continue to live in the cave, the permanent midnight of the Trump administration, and a cave of like democratic fucking infighting and Maine and Michigan and just like all of us are so ready for that to be over. Thank God the Iowa primary race is over and now we're onto the general and we can remember what it's like for two normal people to play basketball and kind of just have a little bit of pep in their step. I found this welcome like a breeze on a summer day after a long winter of despair. Like that, I mean, I just, it's a reminder that we are not the broken cancerous country that we are constantly told we are and shown that we are by the fact that Donald Trump is our president and it's like a reminder that there was a very decent person in the Oval Office who remains wildly popular and he will be a figure in the coming months and days and that's good. And they look great playing basketball together. It's just all, it's just, it's like good, clean fun, Dan and it feels incredibly natural. It's great to see Obama talking shit a little bit about himself and his opponent. I noticed that you guys cut out the part of the video where Obama misses the bank shot and I can only think that's because you guys used to work for the man and don't want to further humiliate him. Note that his office has not confirmed or denied whether he lost that game of I.O.W.A. but he clearly did. - Well, he admits he got whooped at the end. - He admits he got whooped but they would not say he lost. - Yeah, so he's not, you can't. - Can I, so I say a couple of things about this one? - I think it's notable that Barack Obama is appearing in a very prominent video slash ad for someone running an Iowa state that Trump is won by Double digits in the last three elections. That says a lot about where Trump stands It says a lot about Barack Obama's enduring appeal and Connection to that say to state he that obviously launched him to the presidency with the Iowa caucus 2008 But he also won twice with relativ ease in 2008 2012 Second, I would say it goes to show how much Barack Obama once Josh turk to win that he allowed himself to lose I know on video He's one of the most competitive people alive and particularly in basketball and I will tell a story from 2007 we were in New Hampshire Waiting to go out and to do a town hall where the whole room was that basketball gym And Obama was on his blackberry this a long ago that was and Reggie love who was Obama's body man He played basketball at Duke and I were shooting baskets in our suits and I played basketball my whole life I'm not a great shooter, but we were I was like going we were taking turns going around the You know sort of around the three-portline shooting Reggie and I were and I made like six in a row And up which never happens. It was very fortunate But Obama like stops and starts watching and when I finish and I even make the last one with him watching me You did you did I did I did I did and I'm in my dress shoes in my suit in my suit pants tie on and Obama says it's a pretty good shot fighter. I'm not sure you could get it off in a game though Couldn't give me the full credit and so I go to say though that he The fact that he let Josh truck that let Josh truck, but he I think Josh truck who was a two-time goal Olympian What pair Olympian gold pair Olympian for the back would beat him would beat him no matter what but the fact that that should end it up on Video designed of his commitment to winning this right. I love the video. It was great. It like you're right It was a breath of fresh air and lots of people This isn't the sort of thing that's kind of persuade people in Iowa who are sweet, you know Distan Shannon Trump voters the vote for Josh Turkey has other ways to do that This is a way to get people around the country said about his candidacy Yeah, and maybe donate money to his candidacy, which he's gonna need totally and he's been you know in the wheelchair doing a road race across the state talking to rural voters in Iowa Part of his thing is I mean, I think Turks sort of Strategy at this point is reminding people of goodwill neighborliness good vibes like and that could be super powerful in a place like Iowa I mean there is a real phrase Iowa and ice and they they mean it and my dad's from Iowa RIP But yeah, I mean I once take that seriously and Trump's really poisoned the state I mean with an assist from Republicans in the state and as as Obama points out He knows something about when I winning Iowa. It can be done. Um, so it's really nice It's just really nice and it's as you say the fact that he loses in it and the video still made it to the internet is a testament to how much he believes in the race That he's only done three endorsements. I think that so far this season James Polariko, Texas, Gina, and a house a gubernatorial candidate Democrat in Texas and this one. So it's a big deal It's a big deal on many fronts, and I think it's gonna help. All right. Let's we can actually end this show on a high note today I love it and agreement overall agreement perfect Alex Wagner. Thanks for joining me once again. I'm political actress react Tarty again soon. It's my pleasure. Bye, buddy You