Point Total Projections For Each Team This Season

(upbeat music) - Regressing to the mean since 2015. It's the hockey EPDO cast with your host, Dimitri Philipovich. - Welcome to the hockey EPDO cast. My name is Dimitri Philipovich and joining me is my good buddy, Donald Shish and Donald, what's going on, man? - Not too much, just trying to enjoy the summer while prepping for a slightly earlier start to the hockey season. - The season starts on September 29th, I believe, opening night. So we are going to do a little exercise I thought, you know, in light of the regular season rapidly approaching. I wanted to look ahead to do some early projections, I guess, for the 26-27 campaign, where teams stand right now, how the markets sort of viewing the relative quality are level of competence. And then I'm just taking stock of where we're at bottom on through. So out, I think the easiest way for us is probably to go division by division, just so that we get through everyone and I'm sure we're going to spend more time on some teams than others. But let's start with the Pacific division. Let's just get it out of the way. So I'm going to go from bottom to top and we can work our way up. I think that's especially prudent for this one because the connox and the flames at the bottom, the connox are listed at 74.5 over under their team total, the flames 77.5, and then you got the crackin. At 79.5, I've been saying this on the show for a couple weeks. Now I'm curious for your take on, are you will be doing the team-by-team breakdowns ahead of the season? So I'm sure you're going to be considering this as well. Do you agree that the connox and the flames, as of right now at least, are the only two teams in the league that actually want to be bad this season or are at least comfortable being bad? Someone is going to wind up if those are the two who are seeing someone's going to wind up finishing 30th and having a really bad season, but it feels like all of these teams, even the crackin who have very publicly been trying to get better, trying to acquire Jason Roberts and they pay Bobby McMahon. They're like, I don't think they want to be bad, they will be bad. But the connox and flames, I think are the only two that at the moment are very strongly incentivized, I guess, to be as bad as they can so that they have as high likelihood as possible of getting the first overall pick. - Yeah, there are a lot of teams that should perhaps try a bit harder to be bad, especially considering who's available in the draft this year. It feels like the flames and connox are the only teams that are like, yes, we want him, we want to be bad, but there are two teams that I think are near that bucket and are perhaps delusionally believing they are not in that bucket and one of them is the crackin. I have four teams at 75 points or under and then the next, the fifth worst team is at 82. So that's the gap and I think the cracking are unfortunately in that bottom four category. - Now 75 points would be a remarkable improvement for the connox who finished with 58 points last year. I do, I don't want to dismiss the impact by going from Adam foot, who from my money was the worst coach. Not only the league last year, but that I can recall in recent memory in the NHL. From him to Maddie Melhotra, which is an improvement commodity, we haven't seen him be a head coach at the NHL level, but I think people speak pretty highly of him. And at the same time, while I think there's reasons to be excited or optimistic about the connox moving in the right direction finally, as a franchise, the reality of how little talent is presently on this roster, I feel like is just gonna kind of make that a mood point. So I feel like, honestly, there's a reasonable gap there where they probably won't have 58 points again the way they did last year, but 75 still feels a bit ambitious to me unless you just want to make the argument that they're gonna be playing a bunch of games against the flames and cracking. And if they happen to win some of those, then you all of a sudden can cobble together enough points to at least make that a possibility. - Yeah, there's a bit of a Pacific division from across the board. I have the connox at the lower end of that category where I have them at 70 and as the worst team. Trans that a piece earlier this week sort of outlining how the roster got worse over the summer and they're trying to be bad. But the coaching impact is really difficult to price in just because Mahal Trisha is an unknown and he might Dan use it and just get an extra 20, 30 points out of a roster that like there's still some pieces from a few years ago that did well. So I don't know maybe Patterson has a remarkable bounce back to the player we all thought he was two or three years ago. The way I do things for coaches is I look at each returning player's projected value from the year before the coach and the year after the coach. And I think I like 60 coaches or so since like 2018 and Adam Flett was the second worst or the worst impact of any coach. So just removing that alone is an unbelievable swing but it's probably not enough to make that roster interesting and I still think they'll look more competitive and maybe they'll look like the first year bat clock leaps. That's the dream I think for the Connux fans. But I don't know, 70 points feels fair considering their 50 point team who got worse but got a better coach. - Yeah, I think that's right. The crack in the last three years after that playoff where they had in their second season in the league 81, 76 and 79 points. I do think an important thing to consider here is that Jared McCannon has been stunned two of their best most impactful players are going to be UFA's next summer and are both either around 30 or in their 30s. And so if they actually become a seller and move those guys off and we saw a couple years ago when they made the gourd your extra entry to Tampa like they're capable of doing that even if I don't think they want to right now. If the season goes poorly enough early on, it's conceivable that this team gets even worse and those are I would argue like the two kind of higher upside offensive players on this roster that could actually turn shots into goals which they struggle with so much. And so if you remove those two guys for futures where young players weren't going to be as good, all of a sudden like I think they legitimately could get into that conversation with them but for the time being while it's fair to quibble with like what ultimately why you put together this roster like there's enough competent NHL players that they probably won't truly bottom out where I guess it's not as likely as it is for the conox in the flames. So I put them, I think it's fair to put them a little bit above but I think it's within their range of outcomes to potentially be just as bad as them. - Yeah, they can get there. I think they're definitely better than those teams but there's just a lack of high-end talent. I do wonder if we start seeing some jumps from their younger players. I think Beneer's is maybe one most underrated defensive forwards in the league at this point and I am just waiting for that offensive breakout kind of in the Couturier vein where for like a lot of his early years I think Flyers fans were mad because he wasn't a one C yet but he was like a defensively elite like 40 point player. Beneer's is a little more offensively because he has more opportunities than Couturier did at the time but I wonder if we see if we ever see that break out into maybe the 70, 80 point range while maintaining that two-way ability. - All right, this is where it gets interesting. So we've got the three California teams, the Sharks, Ducks and Kings, pretty much tightly condensed your Sharks at the bottom, 93.5, Ducks, 94.5 and then the Kings up top at 95 and a half. Do you think that's fair? 'Cause I think the natural inclination would be the excitement about how close the Sharks were last year making the playoffs, just how good Celebrini is and conceivably as hard as it is to believe getting even better. You add Ivar Stemberg, you add the defensemen which we both obviously agree were questionable decisions from like a cap allocation perspective but are gonna help this season. They bring in Mason-Marchman as well, like a full season of churnishov, Michael Misa improving. Like I think the case that you could put together for why the scene could be better is very visibly inside yet. I don't wanna lose sight of the fact that while they were close to the playoffs last year, like they lost 23 games by three or more goals last year and only the conucks were blown out more often than them. And so I do think they're still quite a bit of work. Like it's not as foregone of a conclusion as I think we'd like for it to be as soon as this year but I don't know, like how would you kind of, would you lump those three teams together or would you kind of flip that order? What would you do with it? - I would lump those three teams together. I think the market is overriding all three of them. I think it is sort of a thing where I would imagine one of them gets to 95 points maybe even more and I wouldn't be shocked to the two younger teams take a terrific leap in some fashion. But they do have to play the rest of the league and I just don't think any of those three teams are above average teams to be honest. The kings are the kings. They are very boring. They are good defensively. They're offensive. was weird. I think their second line center is Eric Hala at this point. That is a generous description of the King's offense. Weird. That implies that it might be interesting in some capacity. Sure. I remember a few years ago, I called the King's fake good. And I've been vindicated a lot over the years in the sense that I'll say something and people get mad and then you're two later, they'll be like, yeah, that was fine. That was fine. That makes sense. I think they were pretty good two years ago. Like they should have beat the Oilers in that series and Jim Keller just a disaster class. Who's he coaching now? I don't think he got another job. Oh, wait, he got another job in the league. Yeah. Here's the forget about that. Here's the here's the bullish case for the King's. You're one under Peter Labulette. You mentioned this on a show earlier this week. Big brain here. Every so these are the five times he's taken over a team 112 points, 106 points, 104 points, 113 and 114. Now I think these are different circumstances, but I do think there's something to the argument that a coach with a shorter shelf life I back and juice early results in terms of motivation or whatever. Yeah. But I think that's certainly plausible and the defensive baseline is high enough that I think the bottom is not going to fall out. If I field for, I've been waiting for 25 years now for the glow up. If it happens, if Brandt Clark actually starts playing number one defense minutes, like Fialas back, their offense was better upon Prenaren's arrival. It didn't look like it in that series against the Az, but I think that was more about the opponent than themselves. It's probably fair as much as I'd like to put the sharks up there. I do feel like the King's certainly have a higher floor. So yeah, I think that's right. The ducks are interesting to me, right? Because their highs and lows were about as dramatic as any teams in the league last year, both in terms of how good they'd look at times and how bad they'd look at other times, but also the wins and losing streaks they had. What do you, are you putting any stock in the fact that there were eight, no one shootouts, 18 and five, I believe, pass regulation and 24, six and five in one goal games. For a young team, I'm not sure if that's going to continue, especially like me as McTavage was one of the things he was really good at was the shootout and he's gone. So I don't know what to do with that yet. It seems kind of scary, assuming Cutter Goethe does sign in as back with the team to fully fade them because him, Seneca, Carlson and Lakom are very, very good and are only going to get better. Yeah, I am not pricing the ducks as a 92, 93 point team from last year, maybe 91. They were around there. I am pricing them as if they were a minus 23 goal differential team because I think they're a minus 15 and then they were eight known to shootout, which isn't real. So minus 23 in regular hockey and that also, I think, just includes through round three as well. So I think at 5 and 5, they just weren't as good as they were build. Obviously, they played really well in the playoffs and their young team and they can explore anytime and honestly, they're in such a soft division that their chance to make the playoffs are high anyways. But I think what are they like 94 and a half for their total for right now. And I think that is a bit absurd when you look at their defense group in particular. So we have Lakom fantastic, incredible. What a player. Then you have Michikov, Moore, Leno, Jensen, Helison, some other guy probably have never heard of might make the team, I don't know. I do they have a second top four defense man. Like, would you put, I, Michikov is like really on the cusp and offensively he's there, but he's just been so horus defensively to start that I am not sure I'm there yet. I'd like to see it this year. And then other than him, it is very dicey. Yeah, I guess the argument would be that despite having more names, we're more familiar with last year. I'm not entirely sold. It's going to be as massive a downgrade as it seems like it will be from a name brand perspective. Because I think a lot of the players they had previously were pretty overrated at this stage of their career. So I don't know. I could foresee. I wouldn't wager on it, but Tristan Luno can good in more finally playing full time defense instead of playing for fine right wing, a full season, Tyson Hines, like, I don't know. I'm more interested to watch it, I think, than Radco Gouda and Jacob Truba and the guys they were using last year. So there's that. And I'm not sure it matters for the purposes of this division. Like one of these teams is a virtual lock to make the playoffs just by virtue of three teams having to make it from the Pacific. And so I don't know if they went a bunch of games six five, it might just not matter who else is on that. Yeah, it might not. I still want to see a lot of these young players take a bigger step. They're missing Troy Terry for I think the first two months or so. That's a factor. I don't like the bottom six like at all. So there's a lot to be excited about. But I as nice as like a bunch of those young guys looked in like baby minutes last year for the ducks. I would like to see what they can do. Like two of them are going to have to play on the second pair and that might be jarring. And I'm not here to say Truba is any good because he is of a similar quality to most of these players when he factor in usage. But I think it's just going to end up being more of the same where their defense ends up being very leaky unless one of these guys really surprises. And obviously I'd like to see that because they're an exciting team. I'm just highly skeptical right now. Yeah. I mean, all of you see any bullish case on them requires cutting a gocha not only being back, but I think almost playing second line center. I think I would require to see that. But yeah, we'll see how this shakes out. The golden nights and the oil is up top. Golden nights one over three of point five. Loyalers one or four and a half. Yeah, I'd be wary. I think the golden night team is good. They finished with 95 points last year, obviously. Just pretty much got one point in every single game they played. And had the coaching bump after quarter relic game, they've got a first time coach now. I guess the reason why I'd be wary or them is just being unclear on what the actual roster is going to be and how many games some of these guys are going to play for them this season. So that's a bit of a scary proposition because the depth ends out pretty quickly. And we've seen they're capable of plugging and playing Braden Bowman or whoever you want to include from the Henderson golden nights and getting a month or two of production out of them because their core players are so good in the infrastructures there. But I could also see them not really caring that much about the regular season either. And so getting into into the hundreds, I think, is a bit scary for me. But if you're talking about some of those previous teams in the pacific being mid 90s, like it's not, I guess that far fetched either. Yeah, I think fragility is always an underrated aspect with Vegas because they have guys who seem to miss time every year, stone, theater, Carlson, like clockwork. I went on a Vegas radio last year and I said one of the reasons to be a little more cautious about them is that factor where there's always someone missing games and yeah, their depth has been out a lot compared to last year where I think at the start, you can see like a very capable top nine and you can plug and play. And I don't know if that's there this year with a bunch of the guys, I think, declining. And yeah, that being said, this division is so bad that I don't think it matters. They'll be okay. And they have a new coach who they don't hate. So that might be helpful. Yeah. What do you think about the oilers I want to for and a half? I feel like I could see on one hand, I don't think they care that much about the regular season. On the other, especially in this division, I could see them putting up a pretty crooked point total. You know, they're finally like confusing some younger legs into the lineup full time and try to say, Olympic David missed significant chunks last year. So if they get full seasons out of them, I feel like I'd be much more comfortable betting on on the regular season point total ceiling for them than the Golden Knights. The reason I'd be more comfortable with the oilers regular season ceiling is they leadership groups, specifically McDavid saying we need to be better in the regular season. And him saying that I think will draw perhaps a bit more of a focus to that. And I am very intrigued to see what Badcock can do because his first year with the leaps like his impact was monumental and obviously you're comparing him to Carl Island for a check and whatever. But he definitely used to be a great coach. We'll see what he can do with the modern NHL team and they still have a super elite core. It's just a matter of whether they can start on time 'cause their octopers are notoriously always bad. - All right, that's enough on the Pacific Division. We did 20 minutes on it, we gotta keep 'em moving. Let's get into the central. The Black Hawk's 79 and a half. They finished with 72 last year. I believe that's the only two teams have a lower total. The connox and the flames who we just talked about, they're tied with the crack and it's 79 and a half. But Dard will see how much time he's gonna miss. You know, you bring in Byram, they made a bunch of additions. I think I've been talking about how imperative it is for them to show some sign of progress, particularly with their young players, their blue winers this year. Otherwise, we need to have a pretty serious conversation with Kyle Davidson at this point. So they're very incentivized to at least improve to some level of modesty. Yet at the same time, this division, like even the Jets predators and the Blues who are next up above them, it's tough for me to kind of put together a compelling argument for why they belong in that year. And so for yet another year, we're at this point where despite some of the optimism surrounding this group, like it's a pretty big gap between them and the rest of those teams. - Yeah, I think the conversations around Davidson and the organization probably need to start now. I think what they have done with the blue line and throwing a bunch of kids to the wolves is organizational malpractice. And the way they're solving that with a player who can be exciting offensively, but has his own flaws defensively, feels like a difficult bet. And I don't know, I think there's obviously a lot of talent here, they picked high, they picked for skill. There's a chance that a bunch of them blow up at the same time. And maybe they have a season like San Jose did last year. And Bedard, before he got into the last year, was unbelievable. And maybe he comes back from injury and looks similar and maybe Frondelle is great. And maybe Cancerov is unbelievable out of the gate and Nazar is good and Lefchenov learns how to defend. It's just so many babies that I'm more inclined to give a hard no to what this team is currently looking like where it feels like one of the safer bets for a team to land at the bottom of their division. - Yeah, I think where it gets really interesting is the market pretty much just put the jets, predators and blues completely together at the exact same 85 and a half and are like, take your pick. I think the blues have the highest upside based on the top of the lineup. Like the top line was so good down the stretch. - Oh yeah. - It was not good with Thomas and Holloway and you know Holloway and Thomas missed a bunch of time. So it makes sense, they came back and really turned it on. If we get 55 to 60 games of Joel Hover based on how good he was last year, I think that would be interesting. So that's kind of why I frame it that way. And I think they're just closer. Like I'm not sure what the predators ambition is. I guess the jets will be trying to be good although we'll see Connor Hellerbuck's action the team. But I don't know, how would you kind of rate those three teams that are all together in one bundle? - So I think one of the underrated things might also be whether McTavish gets the zegris out of Anaheim Bump. It feels like there's something of the water defensively in Anaheim and they go to a different team. They learn how to play real hockey. And I wonder how he looks in the blues system. I'm not sure, but I hope it's good. I still have the jets ahead. Purely on the basis that Connor Hellerbuck is still on the team and he's a pretty good bet. But I also really like their defense score. I think over the last several years, their third pair has always been a genuine gong show where you have Logan Stanley and some replacement level bum or third pair god or whatever, they're just not very good players. And it's always been a leaky part of the team. And then you get into injuries in the top four and suddenly one of those guys is playing top four minutes and they can't handle it. Like it's always been a tough way to live for the jets. And I think the rise of Salmonson last year and their acquisition of Ferraro like gives them one of the better, one of the deeper one to six groups. It's not amazing by any means, but I think defensively like it's a good group that could keep things tight where they might win some close games because they have Hellerbuck. As long as they have Hellerbuck, that's the major key, obviously. - I do think another big ex factor is if you go Bjork makes the team, the idea that Cole Perfetti will actually finally have another good player to play with again, intrigues me. After what we saw with him in Helers and that's a bit of a projection, certainly especially for an undersized teenager, but it seems like they're gonna at least give them a shot to do so. - Yeah. - And so I think that's exciting. And you know, it is fair to note, like last year was such a disaster, pretty much from the jump, right? Where Lowry, Sandbrook, Perfetti were all out for a significant portion of the season and they just never really got going and willing to believe that like the blue line point is a good one. If they do trade Hellerbuck, it does seem like it'll at least be like NHL roster players coming back. So it'll be a downgraded net, but it won't be a full selling movie either. So I'm willing to entertain that. The predators are interesting to me just because I feel like their floor is pretty high. Like they added a lot of good NHL players, especially at forward. So there's quite a bit of depth there, assuming Ryan O'Reilly's still in his team for a significant portion of the season. And the goal tending is good with Saros and what we saw from Annan in last year. And so I feel like if I was ranking these teams, I'd put them probably lowest ceiling, but a pretty high floor, 'cause I can't really see them being like genuinely bad either. - Yeah, I think 85 points is absolutely perfect for the predators, well, they'll be there, but I don't know if they'll be good enough 'cause I'm skeptical about the top end. I don't know how much I love the direction of raising the floor of this team. I feel like they are swimming upstream and trying really hard to stay competitive. And I like some of the bets they made on Bork and Jury and Hoglander, but I just don't understand why this particular team would go in those directions. - I think it was a pretty low level of commitment, though, right, for the most part. Both in terms of acquisition costs, but also contracts. I know they went longer term on Bork and, or sorry, on Bork and Jury, but I think it's fine, ultimately. And they've got some young guys who could concealing take steps like I'm curious to see, they started using Matthew Wood down the middle last year. And so that'll be interesting to watch. I guess the question coming out of this then is, are you willing to buy the one of these three teams is gonna be the fifth team out of the central to make the playoffs and we'll get a five, three split in the West. And one of them will get in. Where do you think that that group that we talked about with the sharks, ducks, and kings? Like would you favor a second one of those over these three? - I would take five from the central without question. I think the third Pacific team might get in there by accident. And I think the central just be stronger. My lean is, if he'll buck is there, I'm going with the jets. If he's not, then balloons are the play for sure. - Yeah. The mammoth are up next, 96 and a half. They finished with 92 last year. You're never going to believe this, but I'm smashing the over on that. - And you will never believe this, but I think that's fair. Just as I said last year and I think they ended up right around the ballpark I said they would. And I think one of these years, you are going to be absolutely correct. But for now, I'm going to stay slightly cautious. I think they're getting there. They're getting there for sure. I just need to see some bigger steps from Cooley and Gunther and have circus have looking like a bad number 1D again instead of a bad number 2 3D. - Well, here's the bowl case. I think it's very plausible that there's special teams improves, which was clearly their biggest weakness last year. They were 18th on both the power play and penalty go. They bring in Troll Trick and Andrews Lee. I think both those guys are going to help in their specific roles. Adding Sebastian Kosa and, you know, it's a projection because we just haven't seen him at the NHL. But based on the pedigree and the tools, I think it's plausible that he could actually spell Vemelka more than they've been comfortable in the past couple of years. Like Mimelka played 64 games last year, which was far and away most in the league. And that should not be the case. And so getting reasonable back up minutes from Kosa and then getting better efficiency out of Vemelka if he's not having to play that much. I think is in play. And then the young players improving like on both ends, right? Like, Cooley played 17, 19 per game last year, which was outside the top 120 amongst forwards in the league. And I know he came back and wasn't 100% and they were kind of slow playing him. And we saw in the playoffs, they finally started playing him 20 minutes a night in that series against the Golden Knights. But if you just add a couple more minutes per game to him and Gunther and have a less even split, I guess, amongst their forwards, considering how good those guys are and are going to continue to improve. Like I feel like the upside certainly warrants strong consideration beyond this 96 and a half. So that's my case for it. The defense, the team defense, I should say, is high enough. And if they just get better on special teams, like, I'm not sure if they're as soon as this year are going to be getting into the territory of the top three teams in his division. But I feel like that's much more likely than kind of falling back into that previous year we just talked about. Yeah, I agree with all that. For me, it's always just a wait and see. I think Cooley can be an elite player. He just has to show it before I get there myself. I believe in him, even if he hasn't shown it yet. And I think history is going to prove me right. You're going to be late to the game here. That's okay. Stars 101.5 Wild 103.5 as 108.5. How do you want to take these three? I guess would you put them together? Would you have the wild over the stars the way the market does? How are you sort of viewing these three? I think there is fairly equal separation between the three teams. And I'm a bit surprised the wild are above the stars. I think they have some very glitzy players, obviously. But I don't really love how the depth looks. I am super skeptical about the centers. And I think the stars are still a fantastic team, even though like the wild did beat them last year in the playoffs. And that's all well and good. But I think the stars still have the more complete roster. And then the abs are number one because of everything they did last year. Yes. I mean, I think the wild like will still see what the roster looks like by the time this season starts in the games matter. But I think there's a lot of questions. And I love the Blake Coleman ad for them. I think they desperately needed them. But there's still a lot of question mark, particularly like with how little offense they're going to get from the bottom six. They did perform at a 105 point pace after Quinn Hughes arrived last year. You know, the stars eventually won 12. And I get it. Like the vibes are bad right now. We'll see what happens with Jason Robertson and how this season goes for them. But I'm with you. Like the strides we saw even from some of the depth guys last year, I think are interesting. But then getting say again back, hence being healthier, hopefully, like just like a regular season from Thomas Harley and not having to play from behind after being banged up early in the year. I think we huge. We saw Niels Lankwist finally warrant our love for him last year. And ultimately, like the power play is just so good. And the goal tending is good. And in the regular season, I think it's fair to question the upside of the team for the season come to play off. So when they're competing against these other two teams, but for the regular season, like there's going to be a bunch of games where they don't need to control possession or play particularly well. And they're going to score three power play goals and get a nine 30 say percentage from their goalie and just comfortably win. And there's going to be a lot of those nights. So I feel like their floors is is very high and 101 and a half. And behind the wild at that, like I probably would flip those two teams in the regular season. Yeah. I'm, I'm decently above 101 and a half. I would flip them without question. I think the wild have two unbelievable forwards and the stars have four. And obviously, there's levels to unbelievable ability. But I think having a big forbers of big two is is certainly a big deal. And I don't know, I, if the wild get larkin, if that's still a thing based on what the red wings are doing and whether the wild even have the pieces for it, I might change my tune. But like as constructed, I am not as high on the wild as as the market is right now. Yeah. I mean, listen, I think one one over three point five is reasonable. I would just put the stars above that. And then the abs one and a half, they finished with 121 points last year. Yeah. They have such a massive home ice advantage. And their top players are so good. I do wonder how they're going to approach this regular season with how they looked in that West final by the end with some of their guys kind of falling off and just the age of their group with guys like Audrey and Nelson and Landis Cog. Like, it's important for them to get home ice, I guess, in the playoffs. But ultimately, it doesn't really matter how they do. They're going to be judged based on how the post season goes. And so I'll be curious to see how they play out. But ultimately, like with Nathan McKinnon, it's, there's no off switch, either, right? Like I think they're going to be going full blast regardless. So, yeah, 108 and a half seems reasonable to me. I would still probably pick them to be right up there as the number one team in the regular season. I guess them in the hurricanes just because of the infrastructure. But yeah, it'll be interesting to see if they can reclaim that number one spot or if one of these two other teams can, can actually push them and steal a home ice in the playoffs. Yeah, always possible. But for now, abs are the best in the West. I think that's it on the West. Do you want to get in today's? Yep. All right, let's do the Metro. I want to save the Atlantic for last. Um, the Islanders 86 and a half, the Rangers 88 and a half and the Penguins 88 and a half as well. Mm hmm. I don't know where on the Isles, I think. Well, they finished with 91 last year. Yep. Now, Sorokin was otherworldly, uh, shape or was incredible. And he's entering year two. I guess I wanted to be higher on them. They just didn't do anything this summer. Like they bring in the captain. They did. They bring in Matthias Michele, which is, which is fine. But beyond, you know, some of the, the young guys improving, like particularly a Cal Ritchie, for example, um, I'm not sure. Like it's a bit disappointing, right? And I get that they didn't have necessarily that much cap space, but they really just kind of sat out player transactions this off season for the most part. And that is a bit disappointing. So I don't know. I think it's probably fair to have them closely bunched with these teams, but on, on the lower end, I think, and, and the most likely team, I guess, in the Metro to finish at the bottom of the standings. Yeah. I definitely think they're the worst team in the Metro. I think the way Pittsburgh Leap last year felt more real and more sustainable, where even though they're an older team than the Isles, I think the Isles are also a fairly old team. So I expect regression from age from both of them, but the faculty Isles underlying process didn't look quite as strong as wide lean to pull them back a lot more than the penguins from last year. In that case, and I just look at this forward group, and it just feels really, really bad at both ends of the ice. Their deadline last year, I understood the vision at the time because they don't think of playoff race. And I thought Shen could be better than he was, but they paid a high price for that. They resigned Pazzo, which instead of trading him, they traded for Polot. It was just a very odd deadline that felt a bit short-sighted for what this team should be. And I think when you see what Shafer did in his first year, everything they do has to be in service of making sure this is a team that can contend in his prime. And I don't think it'd be the worst thing the world if this team did finish last in the Metro and got another top five pick to add to Shafer and the rest of their prospect pipeline. Because the previous era is over, and they still have some players that make the team competitive, like Pazzo or Pat Pelik, and Soroken, obviously, but they need more young building blocks to add to Shafer. Now, I will say, you're one of Peter Burr, who got hired and played and what coach for the final four games of the season. I understand the the playoff asterisk, but one hell of a regular season coach, and I think very well established. And so I think it'll be interesting to see what he does with his team because, you know, last year they totally reinvented themselves upon Shavers arrival and how immediately good he was. And they like became this up and down rush team that was really bad defensively, but was actually creating a fair number of scoring chances and was playing higher scoring games. And so I'm curious to see kind of what his approach is going to be with this group. I don't want to discount the fact that Shafer might just get that much better this season as well, especially like when we saw in season from him, right? Where like as you were writing about at the time, he was producing and looking amazing for an 18 year old defenseman, but they're careful with his minutes. And then eventually they just like put more on his plate. And he looked like he can handle it perfectly well. And so if he's doing that full time this year, I think that'll be interesting. The Rangers, I mean, they were very active this off season by comparison, right? Like, and yeah, I think maybe recklessly so in terms of how many future first they traded, but it's tough to disagree with the fact that they got better, right? Like they, whatever they replace, will bargain on the blue line with adding derzy and Marcus Patterson, they add Dorothea and Björk Sarnoff front. They subtract Troll chick as well. You're going to get a full year of gay pro who I thought looked pretty good down the stretch. Adam Fox only played 55 games last year. And if they're going to get a full season of him and Gadberkov on the top pair, that's going to make a big difference. And just taking him some time, I mean, he won a playing 51 games and they were like a 500 team in those games. So it's not necessarily that I, for whatever reason, like remembered him being out for longer than that. But yeah, I think it's, it's right, it's right to put them like I, I could see a case where they've finished ahead of the, the jackets and the flyers. But ultimately you look at his team, it's like if JT Miller at this point of his career is going to be the second line center, I'm a little bit concerned about that despite the names they added. So yeah, I could see, I could see both sides of it with them. I think high 80s, low 90s is in the right ballpark for me. And they finished with 77 points last year. So that would be a pretty massive improvement. Yeah, I really like what they did to the blue line. They needed an entire second pair and they, they got one. And they, I like that there's an emphasis on offense with Jersey and defensive Patterson. And I think I'll add some balance to the top four and getting a full year of Fox and just jerkin. And I think left, left for near was unbelievable. I think there was trade as well. So I, and I wouldn't say bullish because I'm right in line with the market. But I, I think the Rangers are going to be a much better team than last year for sure based on all the first they traded to make that happen. Yeah. Um, you know, the penguins finish with 98 points last year. The market is baking in a lot of progression at 80 and a half. Yeah. I think it's fair. They shot the lights out. They got career years out of a lot of players. There's a bunch of new faces now. I will say they had what 16 losses in over times and shootouts and had the league worst point percentage in one goal games. So it could have reasonably been better for them. And there was stretches, especially early in the year, like they had a couple cartoonishly bad losses. Right? Like there was that charts game where they just gave up so many goals at the end and wasted valuable points. And so, um, I'm probably on the higher end of this. I think acknowledging there's risk because they have a bunch of older players. So it's possible they missed time as well. And this thing goes off the rails a little bit. But I do think highly of, uh, for another podcast now, Dan Muse. And I'm curious to see what your two looks like there. And, you know, they've got some guys like the Billy Covenant contract. He's going to get an opportunity this season banking because they're, their forward group is so deep that I, I think one of the complaints when that contract happened. I think when you've at face value, like the risk felt large given what he's shown today. But then you find out like a buyout rules and you're like, yeah, that makes perfect sense. Yeah, it's really like a two, it's like a two year tryout. Yeah. But like they have like 12 or 13 guys that you might put ahead of him. So they're, they're four group is so deep that he's still going to earn a spot. Um, and I'm not sure where he fits, but I mean, hey, that's a, it's a good problem to have defense. I think it's a different story. Yeah. Yeah, I think the forward group, especially with how diligent they were about like using that fourth line exclusively in the defensive zone and freeing up guys like Chinacov to, to cook offensively, I think is going to help a concern would certainly be like Parker Walterspoon was really good for them last year. And I get why they made the move that they did. But I do think he played a pretty big role in what a remarkable season air Carlson had particularly after the Olympics and we'll see what that looks like because if that pair is not having the way they were. If you're getting into another season of Sam's Red Crystal Tang, that's pretty alarming. And so we'll see what that ultimately nets out to for them. Um, but yeah, I, I'm higher on them, but I think they're going to be pretty efficient to get offensively might not shoot the percentage they did as a team last year. But I think I'm going to be on the higher end and we'll see what happens with the goal ending as well. Um, but yeah, I, I guess I'm more bullish on them than this 80 and a half was just because I think everyone's just expecting that last year was a complete one off and they're going to come back to earth and there's a pretty big gap there between, you know, they, that still could happen and they could smash past this total as well. Yeah, I'm a smidge in higher than 80 and a half just a bit. I, my biggest question mark, I think is, is the goal tending it feels unproven ish. Well, I guess there's also the, the point of. I get why they didn't make any of these moves last year because of the spot they were in. But like, it's conceivable. I think I'll do is, is certainly going to entertain if the right offer comes to move over a cal, for example, it doesn't seem like they're going to move brand rest, but like moving some of these guys while they're still playing at a high level and, and recouping value and that's probably going to hurt their cause this year. So it's conceivable that they get worse in season and that being by design and, and probably the right move long term for them. The Blue Jackets 92 and a half, they finished with 92 last year. You mentioned the fragility earlier with the Golden Knights for different reasons here, but I think this is a very fragile number just because of the uncertainty that I still have a month out from the season. Like Forenski's going to be there to start the year, but I don't know. We haven't heard anything about Merchant go for a while now and he's incredibly important for them. They've gone better. Like the balance issue is going to be a great fit for them. They're going to get a full season of Connor Garland here. The young players guys like Ken Johnson will probably bounce back. I like what I saw from Denton Matejo last year. So I think there's room for improvement and net as well with Jack Reeves, but it does also feel like a precarious spot because I'm just alarmed, I guess, by everything involved in Don Waddell and Rick Bohness and I feel like the worst case scenario seems more attainable here for me for this group than them kind of putting it all together and having a dream season. I'm going to stay optimistic, despite the vibes feeling kind of rancid right now and that can obviously derail things. I think Winning fixes a lot of things and if Marchenko is still on the roster to start the season and he lays it out, I again assuming mentally signs and time for season as well. I think we could see a big jump from him. I like him a lot more than I think the typical analytics person does because I think the talent is there and he ends up like shifle-esque and just being a bit more of an empty calorie score. There's still value there and then you have a good Norris winner in Rensky. I think Reeves is probably one of the best goalies in the league. Matei Chuck was unreal last year and you have a great top four with Steverson and Provarab was underrated last year as well. So there's a lot of pieces here. I think their forward group is deep. They just need some of these forwards to turn into legit stars and I think if you got a big season of fancy in Marchenko and Rensky keeps cooking and Reeves keeps cooking, that this team could like get like they could create vibes just from winning. It's the same, it's a similar scenario to Buffalo last year where I think there's a lot of noise about people wanting out and being tired of losing and all that stuff but then they start winning and now the vibes are immaculate. I'm not saying the same thing is going to have the Columbus where they win the division, go the second round, but I think there is a lot of potential here if they can string together a good run. There undoubtedly is and I'm excited to watch them. I guess my pushback is like they had that inspired run upon the Co-Change and everyone was talking about how the vibes were good and Rick Bohn is coming in and changing the culture and all that and then the reason they missed the playoffs partly, you know, day and see you. He just got hurt and he had been playing so well. And I think that really hurt their cause. But under bonus, like they totally changed their offense. Like they became this kind of like grind it out, ground and pound, down low team. And I had some success early on, but just totally removed any rush element for a lot of these young players. And then in the final couple weeks of the season, they just could not score a goal to say their lives. And it was like the meme of brick bonus looking around. Like I'm looking for the guy who did this. And it's like, well, you did this. And if they're going to do that again, like it might lead to short-term games again, where they aren't giving up a lot and they're grinding out one goal wins. But it also feels precarious where I could see it definitely going wrong, right? Like we're not that far removed from him just calling out the team and everyone being like, wow, a love brick bonus. He just says it like it is. And it's like, I don't know if that was the right move either. So we will see the flyers up next, 93 and a half. And then the devil's 96 and a half. Now the flyers post Olympics were arguably the best defensive team in the league. And we saw that carry into that series against the penguins. We're going to get a full year of out-of-port on our tone. Obviously they tried to swing big up front with Leo Carlson and fell short. But yeah, I feel like the floor for this team is really high because of that defense, right? And Sam Herson was once again really bad last year. And I know Joseph Wall comes with his own questions in terms of health and availability, but assuming he's able to competently back up Dan Vludar, I think that'll help quite a bit as well, particularly with how little they give up. And so I could see them once again being incredibly annoying to play against. And if they're able to get another year like that from Zegress and Marton, basically just translates what he did in those, whatever, eight regular season games and then the playoff run into 82 games and helps their power play, which was so bad for a lot of the year. I could definitely once again see them being like the third or fourth best team in this division and a playoff team once again. - Yeah, I think 9/3 and a half is pretty perfect at the moment and I think the floor is high because they're so strong defensively. I love Wall a lot and I would not be surprised to be challenges Vludar for a lot of starts this year and it would end up being a more even split, but he's got to stay healthy and whatnot. If Marton becomes a star, if Mishkov gets out of the doghouse and becomes a star as well, as Flyer's forward group like kind of looks nasty and perhaps a little canes ask where the depth is a huge feature and maybe they don't have like these tier one to superstars, but if they have guys who are like legit good and Marton Mishkov enter that echelon, that is gonna be a big strength for them and you can see just from the fourth group why they would go after Carlson because he would have truly been the missing piece and make this a very competitive team. But they have to get really good real fast for the ceiling to be as high as it needs to be. - Yeah, I like the, even the depth forward is right, like Barkey and Alex Bumplake, I think they're gonna get valuable minutes out of all those guys and it could be to your point like death by a thousand cuts or whatever from that group. The devil's 96 and a half, I'm pretty transparent about I don't know what to do with them. Like I could see the 100 plus point case for them if you get actually a full season for ones that a Jack use, I'm not that worried about the goal tending despite it being a question mark in terms of just like being unproven, we've seen so little out of Nico Dawes. I've liked the off season they've had, right? Like they've added a bunch of guys who are good offensive players and that was such a massive problem for them last year where when Jack used and just reprat and I guess are semi-grit sick weren't on the ice, they just could not generate a goal to save their lives. And so if they get a baseline level of confidence from that and their top players stay healthy, they probably should be the third best even in the Metro. - They probably should, but the last three years they've been a huge disappointment. I think I've had them project for a hundred points or so each of three years and they've been well below that each time. So I am actually lower than the market right now and it's definitely a wait and see thing. The one thing that scares me is that halfway through last season the Devils realize they're not the Florida Panthers and they start playing Devils hockey again and Hughes was particularly unbelievable after the Olympics and looked like the peak version that we all think he can be. So if he's playing like that and the Devils are playing a style that fits their roster better, I think that can go a long way, but I'm really worried about this defense group as a whole. I think they really need Luke Hughes to be the guy this year and if you can get there, I think they'll be fine. As a whole, it's just very bland and uninspiring well. - So after their busy offseason, the capitals have jumped up to 102.5. They finished with 95 last year. The power play was so bad last season. I think they finished 25th. The 515 was not an issue. They were six in goal share and should have based on that been better than they wound up finishing as a team. So, I think it's fair to position them as the second best team in the Metro. - Oh, yeah. - Right? Like despite whatever, 'cause as you have about, you know, Tux A age and contract, like he's adding him and Kyru to this team that was pretty poor off the rush last year. Is interesting. I think Kyly was spent so hard with Carberry as a coach, you're getting minutes now from Cole Hudson, Familia Protus. I think it's reasonable to expect that some of the other young players who are running Leonard are gonna improve this season. And they only had Pierre Luxubat for so the few games last year. And I think he matters a lot to this team. And so if you get him back and he's playing a full season, everything kind of fits into place. And if the power play can improve just a little bit, like I wouldn't put them pushing the other games for first in the Metro, but I feel like it's fair to have them second and then a bit of a gap between all these other teams. - Yeah, I am really high on the capitals this year and that is a horrible thing to hear if you're a capitals fan because we have a long running rivalry, my model and the capitals, where if I think the capitals are gonna be good, they end up not so good. And if I think they're bad, they end up really good. Last year I thought they'd get 95 points though and they got 95 points. So we might be on the right track finally. I kind of hope they go far because they might have one of the worst collections of high end talent for an elite team I think I've ever seen. Like their best player is Tom Wilson and I think Tom Wilson is great. He is probably one of the worst best players in the East. And I think the capitals are probably a top three team in the East or top four. So it speaks to the immense depth they've amassed and I think Cairo and Tuck being added just slides everyone down really well in the four group where they're gonna have the best second, third and fourth line league and maybe one of the worst top lines. And that's okay if they sort of do something around to blonde pro-wantas as like a defensive powerhouse unit and everything works out great. But it's just such an interesting way to build where I think it fits specifically well in the Metro division where I think Carolina's top end talent is a lot better with Aho and Travis and Slaven obviously. But it's a similar vibe where depth matters a ton for Carolina, it's gonna matter a lot for the capitals. And obviously the ex-factors Logan Thompson is unreal. - Yeah, I think the play is gonna be playing that just like all unit line of Alexi Proto's Dubois and Tom Wilson together and having that be their matchup line. And then maybe using sort of an Leonard to be kind of like a transition line and then just freeing up the other two to get better offensive results than maybe they're capable of otherwise. 'Cause of the usage. And so it'll be interesting. We have the depth is immense here and the goal-tuning is really good. So I think their floor is incredibly high. The hurricanes are first at 109.5 and I don't have a lot of notes on this. Just a complete buzz saw. Like even with Satchar I was missing the start of the season. They're just gonna, they're gonna keep humming along and rattling off points. I can't think of a team like more immune to a Stanley Cup hang over than this current team. Because of their system I could just so impossible for me to envision any slippage in terms of effort or like all the stuff they do that's so successful in the regular season. And so might be the team I'd be most comfortable with picking to finish first and points just because I feel like their range of outcomes is so much lower than some of the other teams. - I'm gonna push back on that a little bit just because their system specifically is so aggressive and high octane and takes so much effort that I am curious how a very short alcohol-filled off season will do for them. Like I'm not doubting them, but we've seen them run out of gas a bit in the playoffs in prior year. years. And I think one of the strengths of this year's playoffs is they disposed of the team so quickly that they had so much time off and they were at full year in every series. So I'm not saying they're going to slip to second or third. I think they're going to win their division comfortably and it'll be fine. But I'm just intrigued by what a short off-season can do for a team that plays the way they do. I think that's fair as someone who's 35 now and washed and struggles with hangovers. I certainly would not want to have to play Roderand Morehockey after that much drinking. I think what helps them is how evenly distribute the minutes though, right? Like if this was like leaning on their top guys to a really high level, I'd be like, oh man, I wouldn't necessarily want to be doing that again. But everyone is just kind of playing a part and they're just rolling their lines and pairs pretty evenly. And so I think that gives you quite a bit of margin for it. I guess like the the the the ask is maybe lesser than it would be otherwise. And then you know, if it creates an opportunity to just like feature Blake and say go even more offensively, I think that's interesting. And I'd like to see that. So yeah, we'll see what happens in the kitchen and kind of how they fill out that third pair. But I feel pretty confident about them being relatively unfazed. All right, the Atlantic division. Best division hockey. Yeah, this is stupid. I hate it. It's terrible. The worst team the division is absolutely capable of making the playoffs. Well, the first team in the vision had a hundred points last year. So or I guess. I mean, the the the Bruins and the Red Wings are both 86 and a half. So that's why I said that. But I guess especially if there's a lark and trade, you would put the Red Wings as the worst. And they finished with 92. Last year. Yeah. Are you surprised that the Bruins are listed that low? I get that, you know, their PDO was off the charts last year. And they probably weren't as good as they showed. But I think it's reasonable to suggest that they got better from a talent perspective and adding Petrica. And I guess they lose Arvinson, who was really good for them on a permanent basis, but good coach stars at every position. I feel like 86 and a half is on the lower end unless the argument is just like this division so good that if you're going to have six teams that are six of the best like eight teams in the conference or whatever, there's only so many points to go around. Yeah, I am around there. I think I'm a little lower on McIvoy than the general sentiment is right now. I think his play driving has slipped just a bit. I don't know how much that has to do with carrying around random guys that have never heard of for the full season for like his entire career. But it feels like there's been some slippage there. And then after past your knock, I think it gets pretty thin pretty quickly. I would love to see Geeky do what he did last year again. I'd love to see Petrica take a big step with a role at Prison of the Powerplay this year and figure things out. And they have Hagen's probably playing a full season. And maybe he's super exciting off the bat and interesting. But the four group just after pasta is just very uninspiring compared to the rest of the Atlantic, but just to get a sense of the division issues. And I'm going to spoil some season preview content here for a second. I have the Bruins like rating ahead of the sharks, but the sharks have higher projected point total just by a little bit. Right. So I have the sharks half a point about just based on division strength. And then the Bruins at 25% chance to play off the sharks at 43. And they're like half a point difference. So that is what I think the Bruins are dealing with and it's just a very unfortunate byproduct of the Atlantic. Yeah. I think that's fair. Any Red Wings notes. I think pretty solid. Expanded or yeah, I just feel bad for the fans. Yeah. Most I was so good last year. Unbelievably good. Yeah. Senators 95 and a half. They finished with 99 last year. It was a different division. I would actually plant my flag here as kind of zagging on the sentiment that losing Brady, Kachak and replacing him with William Eklund as this disastrous outcome for them. It's pretty good. All things considered. Yeah. I think so too. I think I don't listen. This is like one of the more or less analytical takes I'll ever give on the show. But the vibes are so bad around Brady, Kachak last year. Like I'm willing to buy the argument that everyone is just going to have more fun this season because they don't have to deal with that. Like I did some mess. Yeah. Captain's just going on his podcast and like not backing your team up like that must suck. And so the defense is so good. Yep. They had such bad goal tending for a significant portion of the season that if it's just something closer, a league average. Hey, who did they add this summer? Yeah. Well, yeah. But all Mark is going to have a better season, I think. And so I think so. Yeah. That'll help quite a bit. We'll see still like they have a couple of questions in terms of batter since future with his contract and Zube. Like there's some stuff to figure out, not necessarily impacting this season. But yeah. I mean, Sanderson and Instutz are so good. And the defense as well like down the stretch, right? Like they had so many absences there. And we're kind of patching it together and spent stepped up. And so if it was a different division, I'd be like smashing the over here. I just think it's a testament to what we've been saying about the Atlantic that it's. It feels let I feel less confident in that. But if they're fourth in this division, I would not be surprised at all the. I mean, they have the the center is the leaves and the sabers all at 95 and a half. Now I'll let you cook on the leaves in a second here. But I just don't see the case here for the sabers being at 95 and a half. They finished with one or nine last year. I know they're underlying numbers weren't as good as their results were once they turned their season around in December, but despite losing tuck and byrum and both guys were valuable for them last year. I feel like this is just overlooking the fact that their young players are probably going to get better at very consequential positions in the lineup. And they're adding a full season to hell. And who's hopefully who he comes back like I think patching together the stuff they're missing is very in play. And I wouldn't expect them to be better than they were last year. Like it was such a dream. Final 50 60 games, whatever. But 95 and a half seems low to me unless you just want to say that it's purely a byproduct of the division there in. But I feel like their upside is just much higher than that. And maybe I'm two sabers piled. But that's just how I feel. I had to stay true to my heart. The upside is absolutely there. I have the SENS at 96 ish and I have them at the top of that trio. So it's SENS sabers leaps. I think the SENS and sabers have a similar issue where I am a little skeptical about they're sealing at the moment until some of the young guys like take this massive step to become the guy. Like if I look at the forward groups relative to like slots across the league. Tage is a great player. I don't know if he's a great first forward. And maybe Benson takes a huge step. I know he's the 124th best under 23 player. But maybe he can become the 123rd best player this season. Maybe. Maybe. I have high hopes for him. But if he's your second best forward or third best forward, I think there's a lot of room for error up top where I think the sabers should have a pretty decent floor and be competitive in the Atlanta again and be right there. But the high end talent I like especially up front, I am skeptical about. If Oslin and Helena's come in and just deliver off the bat, if Gulik is playing hockey and being good, that'd be great. If Benson takes a step, if Power starts looking at like a real number two defenseman, that's all fantastic. But I think there's still some ifs on this team that you can see the upside. There's just still a bit to prove even after last season. The one thing about last season and I see why they be pushed back a lot is that they got some unbelievable goal tending from two guys I'm not expecting unbelievable goal tending from. Like I would think UPL and Lion are relatively now. After what they did last year, but what they did last year was be, I think, like a top five tandem. Did you have you input what replacing UPLs minutes with Hela Buckwood due to your model? Oh yeah, that'd be sick. I'd love that. So if that's happening, I can see a spike for the sabers and a drop for the jets. But it is interesting that the jets are being priced as if they don't have Hela Buck. And no one's really being priced as if they do have Hela Buck. He's just in limbo. So he's not on a team next season. Just in limbo. Yeah, he's just not on a team next season. Yeah. Uh, and this with a sense, yeah, like I love, I like Stoots a lot. I just, I don't need the guy yet. I think you can get there next year. I just don't see it with him just yet. And it helps to have Dolly and Sanderson for both teams. Obviously, and that's the big engine driving for us. I just like to see if forward. Get to I think the franchise level where there are a no doubt top 30 player in the league. Yeah. I just don't think the sabers are going to take as big a step back as it seems based on the name brand value. They lost like I think they can cobble together those minutes and yeah, yeah. I think probably have more upside because of how young their players are. Um, so yeah, well, we'll see on that. Um, the Leafs are also in that group. Now they address their biggest weakness, right? Like a lot of the attention is going to go to Gavin McKinnon. I'm excited to watch it. And I think theoretically, he's going to add a lot to what Austin Matthews was missing last year after Mitch Barnard left. But the defense was so catastrophically bad. And they gave up at a certain point in the season. But they were bottom three and like every metric across the board. And they invested their entire off season into remodeling the bottom six with guys who were exclusively defensive players. And they bring in finally a couple guys who could actually string together a couple passes on the blue line to hopefully get out of their zone more often with radish and Emil Andre. And so I see the I see the case for improvement, especially if you're going to get a healthy season of Austin Matthews scoring 50 plus goals, which I guess might be a bit of a question mark at this point. But yeah, they finished with 78 points last year. So the market is expecting a pretty massive leap. And I think they belong in this tier, but I probably would have them. Third, like I would probably have Buffalo first and then Ottawa and Toronto right there. I think Ottawa's floor is much higher because of the team defense and Toronto might have a bit of a higher ceiling if everything kind of clicks together, but also probably a range of worse outcomes as well if that makes sense. Yeah, I think the variability of beliefs is the big thing where I think they probably you can make a case they have a higher ceiling than both those teams if everything clicks, but they probably have a lower floor as well because of the age of some of the defenseman, what they showed last season, some guys in decline. But I am pretty excited about this season. I'm lower than the market by a smidge, but I am so confident that this team was ruined by the coach. And I'm not after like I buy plug-ins and stuff for coach effects. And I wasn't thrilled with Hitler being hired at the time, but like once I saw what the model showed, I became cautiously optimistic. And at the very least, he is not Craig Groovy. And that is a massive upgrade. And it seems like they have a plan to not bury Matthews in a defensive zone and have an actual job for the fourth line of top six. And they definitely overspent persistence and do him and Ross Levick or whatever. And Radish is a huge risk, but it's a risk they kind of like had to take based on where their defense was. And I'm a little more optimist about Radish that because of the like micro stats, the five on five stuff, I think he can cook with the top end of this team. And Andres and underrated addition over Simon Benoag, who was probably on the worst defensive league last year. There's a lot of ways this can go well, but it probably all hinges on Pobrovsky not being a complete lemon. And that is pretty terrifying. Yeah. I feel like ultimately everything just hinges on what version of Matthews are going to get right. Yeah. Yeah. It makes a lot more sense than the pieces come together. If I wouldn't expect a nice amount of goals from again, but if it's closer to that than the 33 and 27 he had in his shortened seasons the past years, then I'm willing to buy it otherwise. It could definitely go south. The Habs 98 and a half, they finish with 106 last year. I get the regression case. I did want to know that they have one of the more favorable schedules in the league. Obviously they have to play all these teams. So that hurts, but a ton of games where they're arrested, I get playing against higher teams and very few of the inverse. So that'll help. It's a bit of a projection on their young players continue to get better. I guess it's a TBD though, right? Because they didn't really make any big moves yet. I know they've been linked to March ankle. They're kind of keeping their powder dry, waiting for either Michael Hage to arrive at the end of the season or for an acquisition that's going to play with Demidov full-time. And if that happens, I imagine both of us would be significantly higher on it. But yeah, 90 and a half probably seems right even if it's a bit of a step back for a team that made it to use final last year. Yeah, I'm hoping most people and I'm guessing everyone listening to this podcast in particular understands that raising the true talent level is the most important thing here. Whether or not it means a step back from last year's point total. I think last year hinged on a lot of players having career years. And as greatest as you've been copied was, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to do that again. But before last year, I think the baseline was a 92 point team. So if they're raising that to 98, 99, 100, like they're paying on the door of being a true contender, I think they showed that they can be advancing to the third round. They really just have to figure out that second layer after they're big four forwards. And maybe waiting for Hage is enough. Maybe they're keeping their powder dry for next off season or the very big off season after that where they'll have a million, a billion dollars in cap space. But I like what they're doing and I'm more than okay with them being patient because I think as they're, as they are right now, they are right there just outside the contender's circle. Yeah, I think we'll help through point total as they wasted a lot of games playing San Montembeau early last year. And if Jacob Fowler lives up to the hype and forward to tandem with with Noberch, that'll definitely help squeeze out a few extra points as they compete for a top three seed here. The two Florida teams, Lightning 104 and a half, the Panthers 180 and a half, 180 and a half, I would flip those, I think. Just baking in the uncertainty with the Panthers, I get the the upside case. And if they're really healthy, I think they're probably the best team in the league. But we've already seen like Martian had the surgery. We'll see on his availability. They have a bunch of older players who have played a ton of hockey and having bar call back is going to alleviate a lot of that. And I think they're going to be very motivated to show the last year was a one off. But one away and a half does seem steep if you're just unsure, like how many of those guys are actually going to play anywhere close to 80 games next season. With the Panthers, like, we talk about Vegas and their fragility. And after last year, I think you have to put the Panthers in a similar-ish bucket where you have to expect some of these guys are going to miss some time, especially with the relative age of everyone involved. And it's hard not to like the team, especially the forward group. I am not as high on the defense and I think the goal-tending is still, I'm still a little skeptical about them. Obviously, a great team. But when you've seen past regular seasons from the Panthers, you know it's not their goal. And I think one away and a half is just very, very high for a team that is built more for the playoffs than for the regular season to begin with. Yeah, I think that's fair. The reason why I mean, there's that. And then for the lightning, they're just such a similar way to say about the hurricane, such a regular season bus. So, right, like they're just so good at everything. I think they got better this off season. It's an older group undoubtedly, but so few weaknesses on the depth chart right now. And so I know that the past however many poses have been disappointing for them in losing in round one. But for the purposes of the regular season, like I just feel like they're undeniably going to be a team that's in this 105 point range. They finished with 106 last year. They're one before and a half here. And so that strikes me as right hand. I wouldn't be surprised at all up there. The first evening, the Atlantic heading into the playoffs. Yeah, that's where I have them. That's no surprise to anyone who paid attention to me being stupidly high on the lightning last year. I think an underrated aspect is getting Dennis Hill to be a competent enough backup to alleviate some of the pressure from Vastlapsi playing almost every game and being an automatic loss when ever Vastlapsi wasn't playing, where I think they could be a better Ryder student team because of that and they should be Vastlapsi for the playoffs at least in that as well. - Yep, all right, buddy. Well, we're gonna get out of here. It was great to catch up and it was a fun exercise. I'll let you promote some stuff 'cause I know a lot of what we're talking about here today. You'll be writing about at the athletic and the lead up to the regular season. So I'll let you plug that a little bit here. - Yeah, I'm gonna have my own Vastvets article looking at the point totals and division odds and all that's coming up over the next two weeks. Last year, nailed Buffalo. Randomly said, "Hey, Buffalo Division, why not?" And it worked out. So I don't know if the same thing will have this year, but we can only pray. And then after that, player tiers, writing with top 150 players, contention cycle with Scott Wheeler where we combine the player tiers and the prospect tiers to sort of map out where each team is in their window right now. And then after that, the usual 32 season previews, one for each team, lots of words, lots of depth. Very exciting times up ahead and doing a lot of prep work right now to get that started. - All right, hopefully enjoy that journey through the league and the look ahead to the upcoming regular season that's rapidly approaching now with DOM. We recorded this one a couple weeks ago. I wanted to include it on this feed as well and not just the Patreon 'cause I think it's a really good preview, it was a fun episode that we did. And so I'm making it available for everyone. There's gonna be a lot of shows we do this year that won't be on this feed though. They're gonna be Patreon exclusive. And so if you wanna make sure you get access to all that and you can listen to everything that we put out, please subscribe to the PDO guest Patreon. The season's starting in a couple weeks now. It's a great time to do so we're gonna be posting all the shows we do on that feed as soon as they're done. So you're gonna get them in a timely fashion. They're all gonna be available and ad-free for them. If you enjoy listening to this show, I think it's gonna be worth it. And you're gonna enjoy it and we've got a lot of fun content coming for you. There's a lot of stuff that we've done even this week that's gonna be available up on that feed now for our subscribers. We had Sean Shapiro on. We looked at some of the, I guess, unresolved transactions around the league trade requests, RFA's that haven't been signed, roster crunches to look ahead to as trading caps open up. So we did that. We had Kyle Raftis on continuing our summer series, a really fun interview with him as the GM of the Sue Greyhounds in the OHL. We got Harmon coming on to do a little bit of a Pacific Division preview, asked some of our big questions for each team in that division and we're gonna keep it going as we get closer and closer to the season and the lead up to it a couple of new shows on their each week. You can also get extra content for free on YouTube from us this year. We're posting full episodes there regularly. So check them out and while you're there, please make sure to subscribe, like, comment, we're gonna try to grow that channel the season and put more, more content on there. So please join us there. Your support is greatly appreciated. That is all for today from us. We'll be back here on Monday with more. Thank you for subscribing and for listening to the Hockey PDO guest. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) [BLANK_AUDIO]