1115: Players to Target

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Shop and store are online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowes, official partner of the NFL. - This is the lay-round podcast with your host, JJ Zacharyza. - JJ Zacharyza. - What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyson in this episode 11-15 of the late-round fantasy football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I've been doing episodes in August on players to target and players to avoid for years now. Basically since the podcast started. But over the last handful of years, I've been doing these episodes with a guest and those guests have been the same guests each year. Two of the absolute best in the fantasy football industry and Evan Silva and Rich Rebar. It's sort of become tradition at this point. In these episodes, I look forward to them each and every year. So today we've got Evan Silva from established the run on the show to talk about five players he's targeting in drafts this year. He sent me over his list of five and then I added five more of my own. We don't automatically agree on each guy. But you guys can hear the reasoning here why we're thinking the way that we're thinking and then hopefully make better decisions during your draft. Of course, with this being a player's to target episode, we're doing this based on where these players typically get drafted. We're talking about values here. We're not just telling you to draft your mere gifts. We all know that you should draft your mere gifts. We're instead looking at this from the perspective of value. Now before getting to my conversation with Evan, I just wanted to send another reminder to check out the late round draft guide. There's well over 270 pages of content that includes game theory, strategy, ways of spot, breakouts and busts, players to target, players to avoid and more. It's all updated weekly, directly to your email inbox. Check it out, learn more over on lateround.com. Now let's look at 10 players to target with my guy, Evan Silva. All right, Evan, here we meet again. Last year we did some players to avoid. This year we're gonna do players to target. We each have five guys that we will be talking through, kind of giving our takes, having a little back and forth about them. But I'll kick it to you first. Give us a player that you want to start with that you are targeting in a lot of your drafts this year. Kenneth Walker. Kenneth Walker, I mean, I think he should be a first round pick, like a consensus first round pick. He pretty consistently lasts until the early to middle portion of the second round. But I strongly believe that he belongs. I have a number nine overall. I have him as my RB five overall. I think he makes all the sense in the world for the chiefs to build their offense around Kenneth Walker. I think that's what they're planning to do, especially with Patrick Mahomes coming off of December surgery, it was in December, to rebuild his ACL and LCL. Patrick Mahomes has already talked openly about how he's not going to run as much this year. He ran a lot last year before he got hurt. That will translate, I think, to more check downs, more screens, the chiefs want to go back to using more of the screen game, which was a staple of Andy Reed's offenses for many, many years. And they kind of have gotten away from that in recent seasons, but they've talked about how they want to get back to that. The chiefs gave Kenneth Walker almost $15 million a year and almost 30 million guarantee that is a lot for a running back. The chiefs top pass catchers right now are Travis Kelsey, who turns 37 a month into the season and Rishi Rice, who had knee surgery in May and had to rehab from knee surgery in literal jail. Our offensive line guru at established the run, Brandon Thorne, rated Kansas City's offensive line eighth best in the league. And I think you can strongly argue that Kenneth Walker is the chiefs best skill position player aside from Patrick Mahomes at this point. His top backups are Amari Di Mercado, who is in Kansas City on basically a veteran minimum deal, and rookie Emmett Johnson, who lasts until the fifth round of an historically bad running back class. So Kenneth Walker has so little in-house competition for work. This often is gonna revolve around Kenneth Walker. I like him as a longer shot bet to win NFL offense a player of the year at 40 to one. - Yeah, I love the call. You look at what the chiefs had last year with Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. They were eight in rushing success rate as a team. They were 27th in rushing yards over expected per attempt. And the reason for that that we see that sort of dichotomy is, well, first off, we know that Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco are not explosive runners, right? They had a, they had 120 plus yard run on over 280 carries last year, where Kenneth Walker does the exact opposite of that. You know, last year they were like eight and a half percent, six percent, 10 plus yard run rate, Kenneth Walker, 15 percent, 10 plus yard run rate, right? Like, Walker's been the home run hitter, lower success rate kind of player. And we even see that, you see that in his runs, he bounces the outside and he'll try to outrun defenders. And that, you know, he can do it because he's very fast. But that also, you know, he'll get tackled behind the line or just make a stupid play. And then that lowers his success rate. But with this offense, you're going to see high success rates. They faced the highest percentage of light boxes last year. And so I think what we're going to see is at the very least, a potentially just annihilation on the ground for Kenneth Walker and what he can do in the offense. And, you know, like you said, the big question mark, I think, is the receiving stuff. But at the very least with him, you know, he had that one target share spike season with Ryan Grub when he was offensive coordinator. And then the other three seasons, he's been in like that eight percent target share range. But like you said, I think they can get back, you know, back to the screen game a little bit more with Walker. And he's been good per route run, which to me signals that he can do this. You know, it's not so much a, you know, deficiency as much as like, like, he's just not being fed in that way. And then Mahomes coming off the ACL, you know, I think that's another factor from a red zone perspective of them using Walker close there. I mean, your rankings obviously aggressive at RB5. I have met like RB eight or nine or something like that, but he's in that giant tier for me, you know, with like the sake ones and all the, you know, and chase Browns and such. So I'm in because, you know, in Bestball, you're gonna see, and that's the thing that I want to be clear about on today's show is that we'll be shouting out like, guys, obviously that we're drafting versus ADP. But even in Bestball, like Kenneth Walker's like a one two turn type player and season long drafts, you look at season long ADP manage leagues, he'll go in the mid to late second round, you know, and at that area where it's like a clear tear drop in terms of where he's being drafted, versus some of those other running backs, it's just such a clear target in my opinion. Let's move on to one of my guys, and we'll talk about Parker Washington, Silva, because, you know, he's pretty controversial right now. I know that a lot of people are in for sure, 'cause there's a lot of camp hype. I almost wish that there wasn't camp hype with Washington, 'cause obviously his ADP's gonna rise a little bit as a result of that. You know, if you've been playing Bestball, you're seeing him, you know, we play on draft kings over here at late round, and, you know, we've seen him going round five very consistently over the last couple of weeks, but it's totally different in season long. He's wide receiver 35 over on Yahoo, which is after Brian Thomas, after Marvin Harrison Jr., after DK Metcalf. I personally am taking Parker Washington over all three of those players. I'm very bullish on what this offense did last year after Travis Hunter went down with that injury, and it also coincided with their buy. But pre-buy and pre-hunter injury, we saw 53% route share from Parker Washington, post-buy and hunter injury. We saw a 79% route share for Parker Washington. His yards per route run after the Travis Hunter injury was 1.45 yards better than both Brian Thomas and Jacobi Myers, which is absolutely insane. And Jacksonville, over that time frame, they were third in the NFL in offense of touchdowns per game. We've seen this Liam Cohen offense, forced the ball to the slot. And the other thing with Parker Washington, it just has a player. I think a lot of people have sort of like, typecasted him as this like slot yak guy, which he can definitely do. He's kind of got that like running back build to him in a way, but he gets down the field. You know, his A dot is not eight or nine yards. I mean, he had a 12 1/2 yard A dot last year, And you can make plays down there. the field, which I think is very, very important, you know, that he's not just this PPR scammer. And then if you look at some historical trends, where if you look at middle-round wide receivers who had a greater than two yards per out run rate, but a points per game mark less than 12 in the previous season. So guys who are very efficient per out run, but they didn't get it done in points per game, probably because they weren't seeing that much volume, historically middle-round wide receivers, wide receivers ranked 19 to 42, who fit that criteria. They've outperformed ADP expectation by 1.2 PPR points per game, which is pretty strong, all things considered. There's also two other guys that fit that criteria this year is Terremick Lauren and Luther Burton. So guys who are very efficient per out run, but they just didn't get it done in points per game, and there are obviously reasons for that. But I think this offense is going to continue to run through Washington in the end. You know, the camp hype is not stopping that thought and feeling. Obviously there's plenty of mouths to feed, if you will, in this Jacksonville offense, but to me, what they did signals that they should probably continue to do that thing, because it worked for them last year. Similar to like, they went out and they draft a blocking tight end in round two. They get Tanner Kozio later in the draft, who I think is actually a pretty good prospect and pass-catching prospect. But regardless, a lot of the thought was, are they going to force more heavier sets, heavier personnel, and run a lot more 12? But I think that this team is smart and logical, Liam Cohen's a good coach, and obviously personnel dictates that they should be running a lot more 11 than anything else given the personnel that they do have, you know, a wide receiver, and given that, I don't think Washington is going to leave the field quite as frequently as we thought, maybe even like three or four months ago. I'm in on Parker Washington, he's going a lot later in Managed Leagues, and so if you're not getting him in Bestball, which, sure, I get it to a degree, but I do think that you should be snatching him in season long. So I think that Parker Washington is really good, like a really good player. I think he's always been really good. He's a guy, he, his final season at Penn State, well, he broke out as a 19-year-old at Penn State in 2021, and he had 64 catches for 820 yards with bad quarterback play. And then the next year he was on pace to do similar stuff, but then he broke his ankle, and he still declared for the draft. So he did not participate at the combine, and then he was not 100% at his pro day. So he went in the sixth round, and he was like, go in the sixth round or seventh round, or UDFA, they just don't carry the same weight, especially when you have teams that are transitioning front offices or coaching staffs, they're not tied to those players like they are to early round picks. So that puts Parker Washington at a disadvantage. He still overcomes, you know, the changing from Doug Peterson to Liam Cohen and the changing of the front offices, and endears himself so much to Liam Cohen that he becomes the Jaguar's number one receiver for what, the back half of, of last season, and produces in that role. I think he's really good, however, the Jaguars have four receivers that they can play. And now they have two tight ends after they use the second round. They locked up Brenton Strange, and they drafted Nate Borkerture in the second round. And so I'm like, you know, Liam Cohen, it just feels like he wants to play like a lot of different personnel packages and keep the defense off balance by playing a lot of different guys. Jacobi Myers is going to play. Brian Thomas has a unique role within the Jaguars offense. He's going to play Travis Hunter. He's probably not going to play that much, but when he's in the game, I think they're going to be trying to get him the ball, you know, so I'm like on the fence with Parker Washington, even though I believe, you know, I think it might be worth it taking a stand on him. Like this is a bet on talent situation, but when I zoom out and look at the environment in the situation, I'm just like, I haven't taken a big stand on him. Yeah. And look, a lot of this definitely for me, because I did not expect to be in on Washington this year, because I figured he would be steamed up and, you know, people were just really excited about what he did last year. And he is to a degree. Like I think again, in like high stake circles, best ball circles, you definitely see him going where I think he should probably be going. So it's not like I'm, I mean, I was overweight just based on like me getting him in like the late sixth round at times earlier this off season, but it's obviously gone up a lot more, right? But realistically, like this is pulled from last week, this ADP, this is pulled from Thursday of last week. And so, you know, five days or six days prior to most of you guys listening to this episode, his consensus ADP on CBS, Yahoo, and ESPN, and overall ADP, so not where he's ranked as a wide receiver, 90th overall, 90th overall, you know, in a season, why would you not take a chance at that point in the draft, you know, I would take a chance. I mean, I have him ranked like 60th overall, like I think he's like a, you know, like end of five round kind of player or round five kind of player, because I start, that's when I start really going to upside mode and thinking about, you know, the ceiling case for a lot of these guys. And the fact that we can get him almost three rounds before or after that is, is kind of nuts in my opinion, just based on what we saw down the, because I think that like you said, the environment is rough. Like it's not the easiest. I mean, it's good from the standpoint of efficiency and the offense should be good. It's rough from a competition standpoint. I think Brian Thomas is a very good receiver. Jacobi Myers is really underrated receiver, and obviously Travis Hunter, I think is going to play more offense probably than what they're, they're, or what the consensus thinks right now. And so, yes, that's super, super scary. But when you're, when you're in that range in the draft, it just feels like you should be betting on talent and you should just be leaning into that a little bit more and saying go for it. But I can understand more of the hesitation if you're, you know, in round five, and there's some really good wide receivers and some really good talent that's going around him. You know, that's when it would be a little bit scarier. All right. Evan, let's hear your next player on the list. I don't want to say that we disagreed on Parker Washington. I honestly, I thought about, I think about it every day, like, should I take a stand on Parker Washington, like a bet on time. I think about it every day and I just have not gotten there yet. But I know that we're going to disagree on this player. So this is when the fun starts. Javante Williams, so unlike JJ, the Cowboys love Javante Williams, okay, because they have showed that through their actions. They made resigning Javante Williams to a three year, $24 million deal with $16 million guaranteed. Literally their second move of the entire offseason, they released some linebacker. That was their first move of the, first transaction of the offseason. The Cowboys' second transaction was to lock up Javante Williams. And then the Cowboys did not draft a single running back nor did they sign a single running back in free agency. Brandon Thorn rates the Cowboys' offensive line top 10 in the NFL and in our notes we had him write, Brandon Thorn wrote an article for us breaking down each offensive line, super, super in depth. Yeah, he does better offensive line work than anyone else in the world. And I think he gets better every year too. And this is his best article. He specified in his write up that the Cowboys' strength as an offensive line is their run blocking. Javante Williams is not like a sexy pick and JJ's about to lay that all out. But he is a true every down back in a top 10 offense with a chance to be top five. He just turned 26 years old in April. And you remember he had a super debilitating almost career threatening knee injury, I believe he was in 2022. And he's sort of been on his way. I mean, it felt like at one point in Denver the heat could fall out of the league. But he has obviously resurrected his career, the Cowboys love him. He typically lasts until the middle to late parts of the third round. And sometimes the early fourth. And I think that he belongs, I actually think that he belongs near the two three turn. And I'll take him every time in the middle of the third round. I think he's a high floor pick. And I think he has upside to compete for the league lead in Russian touchdowns this year. So let me, do you know where you have him ranked right now? Yeah, I can look at it right now. So the reason I'm curious of where you're at with him versus like Breeze Hall, right? Where, you know, to me, Breeze has the profile that I literally have them next to each other. Okay. Okay. So I, so to be fair, I have, I still have Javante, look, Sylv is painting me as this huge hater, right? This, this huge, this huge Javante fader. And it's not, you know, like I still have him like RB 15, you know, I still think that he belongs like close enough to that area. He's risen a little bit in my rankings just because I've gotten to the point where and I was telling Sylv this before we started recording where of course, I'm going to have a data backbone with my takes and the way that I approach this stuff. But at the same time, I want to, you know, obviously provide context and not overthink things and have just sort of that like, you know, over analysis, you know, angle to this that i think is doesn't do anyone any good and jivante is one of those players where I'm trying not to overthink it, you know, because there are things that historically point to, you know, a potential underperformance with Javante Williams. Last year, he had a point four yards per out run rate, which is beyond bad. I mean, that is that that's a gross receiver. Yeah. Gross. Right. Legitimately atrocious. He has caught a lot of passes in the NFL, but he's extremely inefficient. Right. And so typically when you get a yards per out run rate that low, we've actually like never seen a running back hit a double digit percentage target share off of that low of a yards per out run rate. And so I'm sitting there and I'm like, okay, like not checking these boxes, kind of checking like the traditional dead zone back profile, right? But then I take a step back and I look at it and I'm like, I think that Jaden Blues probably going to take on more than he did last year, but I don't want Jaden Blue to be the reason that I'm not drafting the clear RB one in an offense that has consistently been, you know, a top 10 offense in the league, especially for fantasy purposes. So I've come around in Javante. I'm actually not. I'm not fading him. He's not a, you know, a player to avoid for me. I think that it's getting interesting in that like running back area in general and drafts because I like Breese Hall this year, like versus the market, you know, just because I think that offensive line is a lot better than people give a credit for in that situation could be a lot better than what people believe. And so like I have Breese ahead of them because I just like the past catching profile more. And then now you're getting into like like Jeremiah love stuff, right? Because like, like he's fallen for me just because I don't know how competent that organization is going to be with him, you know? And so to me, it's like, should we just be drafting Javante over Jeremiah love at this point? Like are you, are you there or do you have love ahead or are you like way out on love? I'm pretty out on love. I have Javante at RB 12, I have Jeremiah love at RB 15. Okay. I mean, I think that's where I'm starting to trend to is just like I'm getting more and more nervous about Jeremiah love. But at the same time, man, I've seen round three and round four of drafts as pretty flat in general, which is why I don't have a strong opinion on someone even going for Javante in the early third or something because I don't think that there's so many clear cut paths to go unless like, you know, at this point, the way that like Malik neighbors is trending, if he falls or something like that, or, or, you know, I'm really high on like Devante Smith, and there are some wide receivers that I really like in that area. But you know, if we're talking strictly about the running back position, yeah, I mean, like if you, if you want to go that direction, I can understand going to Vante. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. 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Because only LifeLock truly protects your name and your identity. To go get LifeLock at LifeLock.com and use promo code football for up to 30% off your first year, that's LifeLock.com code football again, LifeLock.com code football. Let's move on to my next player. I'm going to go with Chase Brown as the next one. I think that in that round two running back pocket, the two guys I've gravitated towards most are Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown. Those are the guys that I feel most confident in from a floor ceiling perspective. I'm not necessarily including Ashton Gentian there as much as he'll go a little bit earlier often times, but these are the guys that go at the end of that tier, Brown and Walker. Chase Brown, to me, has an outside chance, not even outside, like a very real chance to be a top five running back in fantasy this year. If you look at his first six games last year, 78% running back rush share, 13% target share. He's a straight up bell cow in that offense, but he was only averaging 9.7 PPR points per game. That was during a stretch where Jake Browning was under center and their offensive line was absolute garbage to start last year. Then after those games, he averaged 20.4 PPR points per game and in games with Joe Burro, Chase Brown averaged 21 PPR points per game only behind Christian McAfry, B. John Robinson, Jameer Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor. He was right there when Joe Burro was healthy. Some might say that that has something to do with Smajap Ryan missing time during that stretch, but he still had a 14% target share with Joe Burro last year. The ceiling is just really phenomenal and an offense too that, and I heard Thorn mention this that I didn't even realize that I think is really key. This is the first time that, if I recall, that Joe Burro has the same starting offensive line man year over year is what Thorn had mentioned. I believe on your show, I think I was listening to it in the car one day. To me, that's huge because the offensive line for Cincinnati has been by far the biggest struggle and problem they've had the last couple of years on offense. Now if you have some continuity there, more of them being like a middle of the road offensive line instead of a bottom five, bottom seven one, that's where things could start to really at least click and this offense could really start to dominate. If we get more neutral scripts, we get more of those favorable scripts. I think Chase Brown could benefit overall within this offense. We have market score now with late round fantasy football where we look at the market score number, of course, the raw number, but we have market score comps where we'll look at a player's market score, his overall ADP and his career year and find comps based on those numbers and Chase Brown's closest comps are 2014 to Marco Murray when he scored 22 PPR points per game and 2016 Lavy on Bell where he scored 21.2 PPR points per game. When you look at all of the round two running backs and this includes Kenneth Walker. They all have some sort of change within their environment, right? Even like coordinator changes and there's something that's moving that makes them at least a little bit more volatile. Chase Brown has such a stable environment that nothing really changed offensively for since that a year over a year and it makes me feel more abolish and optimistic about what he can do in fantasy. Chase Brown round two all day, I'm above market and I just think he's a really good pick. Love it. He's like an auto pick, I think he's worth consideration in the middle of the second round and he's a lot pick anywhere in the late second round. 100 percent. Brandon Thorn has the Bengals with the number 17 offensive line this year, that's really good. For that, right? Yes, for them and also he noted, we did an ETR retreat this off season and he came, Brandon Thorn did and I was just quizzing him on literally everything. I actually drove him home because he was flying out of Chicago. We did. There were a treat like an hour and a half out of Chicago. I made sure that Brandon Thorn sat next to me on the drive home. I just quizzed him about every offensive line. He'd been hanging out with Ted Carris, who was the Bengals center and I was like, "Oh, interesting." So what did you learn from Ted Carris or he did like a show with him and Ted Carris loves the Bengals depth on the offensive line too. This kid, Jalen Rivers, he thinks is really promising and they have Cody Ford who's made a lot of stars in the NFL. So not only did the Bengals have this continuity on the offensive line, they also maybe have some depth to withstand some injuries. I love to hear that. Another thing to support your point about the target share regarding Chase Brown. The Bengals have not addressed third receiver or tight end, really. Eric All's kind of interesting to Seki can do some things, he's barely playable in the NFL because he's just a total one trick pony. But I mean, Chase Brown is the Bengals third receiver too. He's like a virtual every down back in a third receiver on a high scoring offense behind an upward trending offensive line given to me. Yes. It's like, again, I'm sitting here, I'm like, I don't want to overthink this. I know, and it's crazy because people have this anchoring bias with Chase Brown because of the way he started last year. But he dominated after that first month and a half of fantasy of the season when they We got Flacco and then obviously got burrow. All right. and hit me with your next one. - Mike Evans, do I just like take all the boomer players or what? - I mean, no, you have a non boomer on this list that we'll get to eventually. - Okay, this is a boomer pick, but I'm leaning into the bit, the boomer bit, hard core here. Mike Evans has a chance to be an absolute volume monster in San Francisco this year. Ricky Piersall already out for the year. George Kittle tore his Achilles in January and turns 33 in October. Christian McCaffrey is 30. He had the most carries and touches of his career last year. The 49ers are so desperate, they had to bring back probably washed Debo Samuel purely out of desperation at the start of training camp. I know Mike Evans is 33, with a seemingly increasing propensity to soft tissue injuries, which is a little bit scary, but he is Kyle Shanahan's new ex-receiver with high quality quarterback play from Brock Purdy in an otherwise extremely fragile 49ers skill position group. So this year, and by the way, his ADP has been going down lately because there was something about, I don't know, some injury that does not matter at all. So people are really scared about that and his ADP has been trending downward. This year we can get a future first ballot Hall of Famer in a juicy fantasy environment at like a fifth or even sixth round cost. I think he deserves to be going closer to the third or the fourth round turn. So I have a ton of Mike Evans this year, and I plan on catching a lot of checks with Mike Evans scoring a ton of touchdowns. - I've done a, I don't wanna say 180 'cause I wasn't out on Evans, but I've gotten way into Evans over the last month or so. - Let's go. - And thinking about the situation and thinking about, it's kind of crazy that Evans ADP, like you said, has gone down post-Ricky Peer Saul injury, right? Like you would think that he'd go up at least half around, but obviously this other injury that's lingering that's there is scaring some people off. And I get it, like this is, I think we could agree that it's at least like a volatile pick, right? Because he's older, the injury stuff exists. And Mark at score, one of his top comps, I've mentioned this on the show before, is unfortunately Alan Robinson's loan season with the Rams. - Where? - Yeah, so there is that fear in the back of my mind where I'm like, what if the dude is dust? And this is the, but then you sit back and you look at what happened last year in Tampa Bay. Not only did Ameka Buka really suffer from the Baker Mayfield play and have outside the top 100 catchable targets rate, Mike Evans did too. And now you're moving him to San Francisco where like you said, there's a lot of volume potential, but also he's been a down the field threat throughout his career. Even last year, it's 12th year in the league, 89th percentile A dot, he's getting down the field. Brock Purdy, number one in the NFL and completion percentage on 20 plus ariard throws last year and over the last three years combined. He has been the best quarterback at completing 20 plus ariard throws in the NFL over this time. Now you can say scheme, you can say whatever. Brock Purdy is a baller, like he's a lot better than what people give him credit for still to this day. So I think the match here is incredible. And then you think about what they might do close to the end zone. And if they're worried at all about CMC and his health and obviously if CMC were to go down, their backups just aren't experienced and solid enough that they would rely on them close to the end zone, then all of a sudden it turns into a Devante Adam situation from last year, right, in LA. And I could just see this really, I mean, like I said, I do think that this is a higher volatile selection. But when you're at that five, six turn, which is where he goes and manage season long leagues like early sixth round, you should be shooting for upside. You should just be going for it. And to me, if you're getting Mike Evans as your wide receiver three or even wide receiver four, which is very possible, that's crazy. And this environment that just seems pretty crazy. Next one on my list, I will go, you know what, I'm gonna go with Malik Willis. This one to me is more game theory than anything else. It's a why would you not do this kind of situation where in most, you know, homeligs, most managed leagues, you're gonna have a pretty shallow bench or roster situation where there's gonna be enough starting quarterbacks and usable quarterbacks on your waiver wire. And even if they're not, like even if you're entering a league and you're like, oh, my league's really deep, it's a 14 team or whatever. And, you know, we start multiple flex spots in our bench, yada, yada, yada. I think that you can pair Malik Willis with a more stable piece like Bo Nix or something and just have a solid quarterback that you know will be able to get you something. I still think Nix has some upside too. And then obviously Malik Willis being that like insanely volatile, super high upside, super low floor type of player. But I would argue that the floor is not as low as what people might think. He had three starts in Green Bay. He averaged 58 rushing yards in a rushing touchdown per game. It's 11.8 points per game with his legs. We've had 25 quarterback seasons where the quarter, since 2011, where the quarterback had seven or more points per game via rushing. So that's far below where Malik Willis was at. Malik Willis is almost definitely gonna hit seven points per game via rushing this season. That's a, you know, that's a higher end number for sure. But he's also like borderline prolific as a runner. Like we've already seen that in the NFL. That's what he was as a prospect. And so basically I looked at quarterbacks with 300 or more attempts in the season and then hit seven or more points per game with their legs. We had 25 of them. So they were playing good number of games all while getting a done on the ground, right? Of those 25 seasons, only three of them ranked outside the top 10 in points per game at quarterback. Now obviously you're getting skewed results to a degree with like good passers like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. But the point remains that none of those guys ranked outside the top 20, which is where Malik Willis is being drafted right now. And I think when I think about Willis, I'm basically saying this is a Justin Fields type bet that we've been making over the last three years in fantasy where we actually knew that Fields was a questionable passer, you know, over the last handful of years that we've been drafting him. But we've been drafting him because when he starts he gives us usable weeks. He's a very usable player and he gives us spiked weeks whenever he has just two passing touchdowns because of what he can do with his legs. So this really comes down to the fact of, what if Malik Willis is actually decent at throwing the football? What if he's a much better passer than what the market is just assuming because of this change in scenery and you know, his kind of career trajectory and the fact that like you and I have been doing this for a while Evan, have you seen a wide receiver room as bad as Miami's entering a season? - No. - I don't think I have. Like, I think it's the worst pass catching room that I've ever seen in the, I mean, I've been doing this since 2011, 2012. You've been doing it. - I've seen you have A-chan, but in terms of a wide receiver and tight end unit, no, it's gotta be the worst, right? Yeah. And so like that's very scary for sure. And I think, but I also think that's what's keeping this price lower. If he had one alpha, I think he'd be going like four or five spots higher in quarterback rank where he's going after QB20 consistently. So to me, this is more of a, through that dart, I'm not saying that Malik Willis is going to be a stud. I'm saying we don't know. And the market is kind of assuming right now that it does know. What we do know is that he's a great rusher and that often wins in fantasy football. So I'm going to lean into that. - So I could say a ton of negative things and paint an extremely negative picture about Malik Willis right now. - Right, right. - However, based on his draft cost, I don't really care about the negatives. - Right. - Regardless of format where I'm drafting, I love drafting them in Bestball. But when he's going as late as he is, I think you just think about the positives. And what you want at the end of the day, you just want to make sure, you want to make sure, especially in Bestball, you want to make sure that he keeps his job. - Right. - You want this team to not circle the drain like immediately, like, basically what happened with Justin Fields last year, you know what I mean? That's going to be a very common comparison. Justin Fields went way earlier than Malik Willis is going this year by the way. And I think that that starts with the offensive line, painting the positive picture because the dolphins have invested a lot into this offensive line. They have two mountains of men at left tackle and left guard in Patrick Paul and Kayden Proctor. It's the biggest left tackle and left guard combination in the NFL. Speaking of Brandon, this is going to end up being the Brandon Thorn Show. Brandon Thorn told me that the Dolphin Center, Aaron Brewer last year should have won that award protector of the year. Best center in the league according to Brandon Thorn. So you have two mountains at left guard and left tackle and then the best center in the league. And then, at right guard, you got Jonah Savayanaya, second round pick last year. And then at right tackle, you got Austin Jackson, who's made a lot of starts in the NFL and you also have a decent backup in Jamari Sawyer. So you have the makings of a potentially quality offensive line and you want that in front of a running quarterback, I believe. You just, you don't want this situation to get out of hand. The Dolphins are losing every single week. They're not even competitive. They, because they're playing from behind a lot, they're like, all right, Malik Willis can't, you know, battle us back. So we're going to go to Quinn Ewers. Quinn Ewers, by the way, did not embarrass himself when he got opportunities last year. And they could be like, well, maybe he could throw us back into some games because Malik can't do that. That's what you want to avoid. And I think that the positivity starts with the offensive line And you're hoping for a thousand dollars. in the art rushing season, which Justin Fields did have. And I think it's squarely in Malik Willis's range of petrol outcomes, but you just gotta make sure, you gotta try to get this thing to not circle the drain like right away. - Yeah, 100%, 100%. And again, in a managed season long league, okay, you drop 'em. And if you're worried about what direction this could go in, that's where I say, look, people think that I only take one quarterback on every one of my rosters. I think it's totally fine. Especially if you're in like a 20 round draft to take two quarterbacks, to get to pair 'em with like Brock Pertier, whichever quarterback out of that like giant tier ends up falling, get him with Malik Willis and you're good to go because you're at least playing the upside game with Willis and you're able to capture that. Let's hear your next one, Evan. - Kyle Pits, this isn't a boomer pick, is it? Kyle Pits? - No, no, it's just a guy that pisses everybody off. - No, the Mike Evans and Javante ones were the only two boomer picks. - Okay, they throw out. - Okay, thanks. - So I am well aware that Kyle Pits was a perennial disappointment and borderline NFL draft bust from 2022 through 2024. He tore his PCL in 2022. We've seen what Ricky Pearceau, Rashad Perryman, Brock Bowers, Dalton King Cade. I mean, just an injury that will strip away years from your career, if not end it outright. Kyle Pits has bounced back from that. It also didn't help him that Arthur Smith never liked Kyle Pits. I mean, can you think of a more anti-Arthur Smith player than Kyle Pits? - No. - No. And Kyle Pits for his, but was not a good player when he was coming off the PCL injury in 2023 and 2024. So it is easy to forget that of course Kyle Pits did win the Machia Award in 2020. There was a fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft. He had over a thousand yards as a rookie. Last year he's finally healthy. He finishes second among tight ends, behind only Trey McBride in targets and catches. The Falcons loved him enough to give him the franchise tag, and then they gave him an extension with $36 million guaranteed. The most in the league for any tight end. Kevin Stofanski has a very tight end friendly history. The pass catcher core is just completely barren behind Drake London and Bijan Robinson to the extent that we're talking about third round pick Zachariah Branch as a potential significant early contributor. And Kyle Pits is going on age 26. He is firmly in his prime. So a lot of things have worked against Kyle Pits in his career. I don't think the things are working against him anymore. And I also think the two is sort of the perfect quarterback to just pepper Kyle Pits with targets. So I have Kyle Pits as my tight end five ahead of Tuckercraft, Sam Laporta, and Harold Fanon. - I was gonna ask you, because I see a lot of discussion on social media about which quarterback would be better for this player, for that player. My stance on the foul, and I wanna hear if you agree. My stance on the Falcons quarterback situation is from a fantasy perspective, I just want to a start, because he throws catchable targets. Like he's not the most friendly from like a, oh, this team's gonna dominate perspective. But we want, like in the end, we do want that PPR scammy kind of look in fantasy. We just want these guys to get easy looks. And I think that we'll see easier looks with Tua. Would you agree with that? - Absolutely. - Okay, okay. It's good that we're on the same page. All right, I'm gonna move on to my next player. I'm gonna go with a tight end also. And I haven't talked about him that much, but he's been a target in the draft guide since the guide launched at the beginning of July. And I do wanna give him some love on the show so that people know that I am in on him this year. And that's Dalton Kincaid. I was actually more so like on the cell side with him last year as he was doing some unsustainable stuff in the touchdown column. But he did finish last year with a 2.79 yard per out run rate, which is absolutely bananas. - One of the best in the league. - Yeah, yeah, just a crazy yard per out run rate. But he ran a route on just 51% of Buffalo's drop-backs, which was outside the top 30 among relevant tight ends. But that yard per out run rate was top seven since 2011. And George Kittle has three of those in the top seven 'cause he's just a freak. So we're talking about like literal elite company with what Kincaid did last season. He finished tight end 14 because of that lack of usage. The route share was just so bad. But he was also playing a lot of that year hurt. You know, he had the PCL injury, which is the same thing that Ricky Pearceau was dealing with that he went back and got surgery for. - Kyle Pitts. - Yeah, Kyle Pitts. And this was to be clear two years ago where Kincaid had that issue. And then it lingered in the last year and just continued throughout the year. So we're now very far removed from that injury. And there are some favorable reports about Kincaid being healthy right now. And the way I look at this is really just a math equation. Number one, I think he's just a good receiver, like a good player. But then you just think of this from a mathematical perspective. He led all tight ends last year and fantasy points per route run. He outpaced expectation by two touchdowns, sure. But he's finished inside the top 20 and fantasy points per route run in each of his other seasons. And he ranks eight among 300 plus route run tight ends and fantasy points per route run since he entered the league. He's been a top 10 tight end within that statistic. So I'm imagining a world where that route share goes from outside the top 30 to maybe top 20, top 15. And then maybe you have this DJ Moore being there opening things up a little bit for him. Because I think they're obviously going to be using more, they need a presence on the perimeter. They've not had a presence on the perimeter for years now, which is why that offense has been funneling through Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. And they just haven't had that player. I think that could open things up for Kincaid to maintain some of this efficiency. And if he is healthy, that route share could just go up. And all of a sudden, you're getting a guy outside of at least low end tight end one, high end tight end two range. That could finish mid range tight end one. That could could truly be a really strong fantasy asset. So I haven't really been on Kincaid a lot throughout his career so far. But this is the year that I'm kind of leaning into it. - Man, I think you sold me on him. 'Cause he's another guy. I've been like, "Ah, should I move him up?" - Yeah, it just takes a little bit of movement from a route share perspective, for him to like legitimately dominate, you know? - Yeah, just a little bit. - Yeah. - And we know we're getting better health. - Right. - So where do you have him? - Right now, I think I have him around. Yeah, I have my tight end 10. - Gosh, I gotta move him up. - For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Trampaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Trampaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Trampaya, proper training is required. Trampaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. 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If you fall victim to identity theft, LifeLock's restoration specialist will block and tackle for you, which means they'll handle your case from start to finish and restore your identity guaranteed. So go get LifeLock at LifeLock.com and use promo code football for up to 30% off your first year. Again, LifeLock.com code football. - All right, my last guy, I love this guy. And I think you do too. No, you definitely do too. Jordan Tyson. - Oh, yeah. - Any late round listener knows that you've been big on him throughout the entire process, right? - Oh, he's been my wide receiver one since January. - Sick. - Yeah. - So Jordan Tyson is going to open his career in like the greatest environment ever created for maximum box score production. I mean, I guess with the exception of Chris Olabe being there, but the Saints play indoors. They are set up for shootouts. They're going to have to compensate for a bad defense that lost Brian Breeze, a starting defensive tackle recently for the season. They're coached by Kellyn Moore, who I think is a proven talent maximizer who emphasizes tempo and play volume. You, Kellin Moore wants to lead the NFL in offensive snaps every single year. Again, Brandon Thorn, Saints had the seventh best offensive line in the league, so that's really good for, you know, just environmental concerns. In the fantasy playoffs, weeks 15 through 17, the Saints play the Bucks, the Cardinals, and the Falcons. Love that. And then Nick Underhill was talking to him the other day, and he's watching training camp practice. He's like, he literally said that he thinks that Jordan Tyson might already be the best player on the Saints roster. Yeah. Which by the way, for Underhill is locked into the Saints more than any other person on the beat. He's amazing at what he does with the Saints. He knows. Yeah. Yeah, he knows everything. I mean, he told us like weeks and events that the Saints were going to take Jordan Tyson at number eight overall and held it. So I have Jordan Tyson. It's getting ridiculous. I've met 51 overall, which is like 35 spots ahead of his ADP. That might be irresponsible, but I want Jordan Tyson on literally every single fantasy roster that I draft in 2026. Yeah. Yeah. I couldn't agree more. You know, people know throughout the process, he was my wide receiver one. His analytical profile was bonkers 99th percentile breakout score, which is the most predictive metric that I have at wide receiver. Even if you look at like ADP trends historically, this is kind of interesting. Since 2014, we've had nine rookie wide receivers drafted at wide receiver 19 to 42, so like a middle-round range of wide receiver, who entered the league with a zap score above 90, which is where Jordan Tyson currently sits. The other names in that group are Malik neighbors, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Drake London, Jamar Chase, Jalen Waddle, CD Lamb, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, and Sammy Watkins. The average player there, average 14.2 PPR points per game is rookies, and only two of them failed to outperform ADP expectation. One of those misses was Amari Cooper, who had a good rookie season. He just was drafted really, really high that year, so his ADP expectation was higher. And then, you know, you mentioned the Crystal Ave thing. This is what's kind of driven me a little bit nuts about this situation. I think the two complement each other incredibly well. Like, Jordan Tyson is, he can be a zone beater underneath kind of player, which is why I think that he might be a more favorable, I mean, I like him much more as a value for sure, versus Alave right now. But Alave has always been really good at against man and stretching the defense and going vertical, right? That's always been his game, because he can create such a good separation in doing that. And so when you look at how the game of fantasy football is played, I think there's some chance that at least during like the second half of the season, we see Jordan Tyson just matching Crystal Ave from a production standpoint and getting as much volume as Alave from a production standpoint, because he might see some of those easier looks in the offense. It's similar to the argument of like Luther Burden, versus Roma Dunezay, where the Dunezay stuff is more difficult for me to really jump on to, because yes, like he, you might love him as a wide receiver. He might be incredible by your eyes and whatever analysis you're doing. But in the end, you still have to look at how this player is being placed within this offense and used in this offense. And Burden is playing more of that layup role for fantasy purposes, the higher catchable target role, the scheme of open kind of role, because he's so good after the catch. And I think that, I'm not saying that Jordan Tyson is a Luther Burden player, because they're not really alike at all from that perspective. But Tyson can get a lot of that shorter stuff, where I think he can be peppered with looks in this offense. I mean, we're already seeing some of these clips from practice, which are just, I mean, it's just bonkers, his route running ability. But I'm with you, man. I think Jordan Tyson, you know, again, he's been one of those guys. I've had him ranked over Carnell Tate all summer in Redraft and in Dynasty, but I feel just so much better about this environment than I do Tate's in the end, you know, where I think that like we might look back and say like Tate's a better real life player or whatever the case may be. I don't think that's going to be the case, but I could see that happening. But I just think that what matters in fantasy football, Jordan Tyson can do very well. And that's what we're worried about here. Another boomer take, but, you know, these guys, Jordan Tyson and Chris O'Lava, they kind of remind me from a skill set standpoint in a, and they, of course, they play indoors of like Tory Holden Isaac Bruce. There we go. Yeah. I mean, they're not like super, like from a skill set standpoint too, like, they're not super physical receivers. They're not going to run you over, but they're like super bendy and flexible and fast and they catch everything. And they're just like really, really good at playing wide receiver. Yeah. And that's what Jordan Tyson and Chris O'Lava are. Yeah. I'm hoping that Tyler Shutt can be the, the Kurt Warner or, you know, even the, even the Trent Green. Yes. Yes. I did not expect to hear Trent Green on a podcast today. I almost, I actually talked about Shuck on the show. I just went with Malik Willis because I think it's an easier, you know, the, the way that we are wrong about the saints is if Tyler Shutt just isn't any good. Yes. 100%. And I think that's a real, a real possibility. It is. You know? But I just, like you said, I, I trust what they have in front of him right now, including the coaching staff, you know, so it's a little bit easier to buy into just from that perspective. Uh, the last one I want to get to is, is Jalen Waddle. The dude's always been really good on a per-out run basis. He had a 2.19 yards per-out run last year, 24% targets per-out run, 11 and a half percent first downs per-out run, which was really strong. He's entering year six. That's usually a peak performance year, especially with earlier round wide receivers for them to, to, to give you the most fantasy production. Now he's in Denver. They've been 12 in the NFL and touchdowns per game over the last two years with Bonix, and, and pass attempts per game. So it's a, a more pass-friendly offense than what, uh, Jalen Waddle was, was leaving or where he was in Miami, uh, over the same time for him. Miami was 24th in touchdowns per game and 21st in pass attempts per game. So this is definitely a, a change, uh, in a favorable direction for Waddle. Um, you know that Waddle has only played two seasons of his career in an offense with a positive EPA per-play rate and that was in 2022 and 2023, I believe, uh, in those two seasons, 2.59 and 2.63 yards per out run rates. He scored 14.2 and 15.3 fantasy points per game, PPR points per game, but that was also with Tyree Kill where Hill was, was, was, it was peak Tyree Kill. He's getting a, you know, 28 to 30% target share. And so obviously Jalen Waddle is not seeing all of that work or as much as he could. I'm not really worried about the competition in Denver. I think Jalen Waddle is like by far the best talent on that team right now. I know Cortland Sutton always has believers and fantasy and, and he's a fine player, right? He's, but, but also he's very good role player. Yeah, right. But he's also on the wrong side of the age curve at this point. Um, I think that if anything, the guy that I've been targeting most is Pat Bryan. Yes, sir. Out of this offense. Um, you know, I, yeah, right. I mean, that's what we've seen work in the, in the Peyton offense historically. And I also think that he can play a little X like he's, he's capable of moving to the outside. So like, I'm worried about Cortland. So I've been worried about like, I faded Cortland Sutton last year too. I'm going to be fading him again this year, um, mostly this year, though, it's a really easy case because I think Jalen Waddle is going to play that zero in the offense, which is if you guys remember, there was like a five week stretch last year where Troy Franklin was outpacing and out targeting Cortland Sutton. Yeah. And he was playing this role in that offense and eventually the Broncos are like, you're not good enough to be, to, to be doing this, you know, we're going to start, uh, the, isn't that playoff game, especially, like Pat Bryant was about to eat before he got injured. Do you remember that in the, the, the, to start that game? Yes. So like they, they started moving, right? Right. Yeah. And they started moving things around. Like, I, I think that Jalen Waddle, because during that stretch, Troy Franklin was getting like eight plus targets per game, uh, and that's what everyone was like, Oh, is he overtaking Cortland Sutton? Is he the better? And it's not so much that it's, it's the scheme that was allowing Troy Franklin to get as much love as he was getting because he was moving around the formation, getting those favorable matchups. They're going to do that with Jalen Waddle. And Jalen Waddle is a lot better than Troy Franklin, like, like light years better than Troy Franklin. So I am so, so excited about what Waddle can do. You know, I think it a lot of homelies, you end up seeing him go like late fourth into the fifth. I think that you could easily argue him all the way up into that top of the like third round tier of wide receivers. You know, like, I think that he is very close to, and I'm, I'm very high on like Devante Smith. I would still take them over Waddle, but I think Waddle's like next with a Mecca Bucca and stuff. Like, I think that the upside case is definitely there with Waddle this year, whereas if you look at a lot of these season long platforms, he's like wide receiver 20 or later, because, you know, I think he's burned a lot of fantasy managers, right? Because he's, he's, he's, he's got the Deante Johnson syndrome where he gets hurt and then he leaves games and then his, you know, it's just a very frustrating player to have. But when he's healthy, man, he's just one of the best wide receivers in the game. The Broncos agree with you. They give him a first and a third to go get him. Yeah. Poor Marvin Mims. And when we mentioned like every Broncos receiver, he didn't even get him. I guess he's just a return guy at this point. I just, I've just, you know, graduated just viewing him as a gadget kind of player at the point, you know? Right. Yeah. I mean, one thing that stuck out in Matt Harmon's reception perception to me with regard, regarding Jalen Waddle because he's a player that, as you mentioned, he's sort of like, he's sort of divisive or polarizing, you know, like some, some people just nicky sucks. But I mean, he's really, really good at winning downfield in that role. that you mentioned that Troy Franklin was sort of, you know, shoehorned into last year, but Jalen Waddle can still win down field at an elite rate, and the Broncos have the best offensive line in the league. So they're going to give Bonyx protection, and Bonyx is sort of like known as a like a layup passer, you know, throws a lot of screens, a lot of high percent of stuff around the line of scrimmage, but he was fifth in the NFL in air yards last year, Bonyx was. Now he had more attempts than he probably will have this year, but they do want to stretch the field, you know, and that's why they went and got Jalen Waddle. Exactly. So I'm on board. Yeah. Love it, man. I appreciate the time I love talking ball with you always. Let everyone know where they can find you and what you'll be up to this year. Yeah. Just establish the run dot com. Um, Michael Leoni and I will be going head to head for this year's man versus machine. We're taping on Wednesday, JJ and I are recording this on Monday, but we're taping on went Wednesday, and hopefully we'll be out by maybe Thursday, certainly by Friday. I'm really excited. We we have a lot of fun doing that show, you know, Leoni comes at it from like a super spreadsheet oriented, um, standpoint, and I try to be, you know, the, uh, the ball knower. Yeah. You know, and, um, and he and I beat him in 2024 by like a hair and he beat me, although I actually won this past year by literal hair, because Levitan set, because I was really high on Jameson Williams, who was a freaking league winner by the way. Sure. And then Levitan gave Leoni the win on Jameson Williams, which was a bunch of crap, but that that wound up tilting it. And Leoni got the win with an asterisk this past year. So this is like the rubber match here. Love it. I love it. Yeah. You guys, you guys are, you know, there, you guys are, are friends of the, of the business, friends of, of late round fantasy. We love you guys. Um, and uh, I'm excited to see that whenever it releases. As always, make sure you guys are checking out late round dot com. Check out the late round draft guide, uh, that will be updated on Friday as usual. Uh, I will be back with becoming a best ball, bro. And then we have the late round show. And then we have a mail bag episode this week. So you guys will hear from me soon. Otherwise, everyone as usual, thanks for tuning in. AI can make a fake ticket offer, look legit, or a sports book tech sound official. And then what? Life lock helps detect potential identity threats and suspicious activity. And if identity theft happens, life locks, restoration specialists can help restore your identity guaranteed because only life lock truly protects your name and identity. Get life lock at life lock dot com and use promo code football for up to 30% off your first year. That's life lock dot com code football. Giardians has a big story to tell. Discover Giardians. Empical flows in 10 or 25 milligram tablets. Visit Giardians dot com call 1 888 968648 or talk to your doctor to see if Giardians is right for you.