It's Friday, the 6th of November. Well, congratulations. We've made it to the end of another work week. Welcome to the PDB. Afternoon, Bulletin. All right, to be fair, it is the evening Bulletin. For today, thanks to the joys of air travel, I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's economy continues to take a beating with tens of billions in business losses, soaring inflation in a government, struggling to keep basic necessities somewhat affordable. But, well, you'd never know it from listening to the Islamic Republic's leadership. In their minds, they've handed the US both a military and a political defeat. Later in the show, the Trump administration moves to formalize military cooperation with Venezuela, negotiating an agreement that could pave the way for a long-term American troop presence. But first, from today's afternoon spotlight. As President Trump weighs whether to launch another round of military strikes against Iran or continue the economic pressure campaign or give diplomacy more time, we're getting a clearer picture of just how badly Iran's economy is suffering. New reporting from inside Iran shows businesses losing tens of billions of dollars, industrial prices rising at an extraordinary pace, and families struggling with the cost of basic food items. What's particularly revealing is where some of these figures are coming from, Iranian government agencies and the country's own business organizations. Now let's start with the big number. According to an assessment by Iran's Chamber of Commerce, government-ordered business shutdowns and other disruptions have cost Iranian businesses and estimated $34 billion would be during the Iranian year. The Iranian year, by the way, ended in March. The chamber recorded 61 days of mandatory business closures, along with another 190 days, when at least one serious disruption interfered with normal operations. It estimates that businesses lost roughly 22 percent of their potential operating time over that period. Now, that's not the same as saying that Iran's entire economy shrank by 22 percent, but it is a striking measure of how difficult it's become. Aside from the obvious disruptions of a war and the ongoing sanctions, Iranian companies have been dealing with chronic electricity and natural gas shortages, internet shutdowns, pollution-related closures, political unrest, and disruptions associated with the war. A factory might have orders waiting and employees ready to work, but no reliable electricity to run their machinery, or they might have power only to find the communications are shut down or a supplier has been forced to close its doors. For larger industrial operations, stopping and restarting equipment can of course become extremely expensive. And when one manufacturer shuts down, the damage can spread to all the businesses that depend on its products. Keep in mind that the chamber's estimate covers a year ending in March, so not just the month since the latest American blockade. The problems have been building for some time, and the war, of course, has added significantly to them. But even when Iranian factories do manage to stay open, there's another problem, and that's the cost of producing anything, and that is soaring. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, industrial producer prices in the summer were 147 percent higher than during the same period a year earlier. That's an increase in the prices received by industrial producers, not the inflation rate faced directly by shoppers. It offers a revealing measure of the pressures moving through Iran's industrial economy. The year-over-year increase had been 109 percent in the spring. By summer, it was nearly 150 percent, and prices rose another 28 percent in that summer quarter alone. For a manufacturer, that can mean paying dramatically more for the materials and products that it needs, while trying to sell the customers who have less and less money, and there's a conundrum. Food prices, the cost of basics, are hitting the Iranian population particularly hard, although my guess is that the regime's leadership and the revolutionary guard corps senior commanders are not struggling to buy basics, like milk. Speaking of milk, according to Iranian market reporting, milk prices have increased by 70 percent just over the past two months. Other dairy products have seen steep increases as well. Industry representatives say consumption of milk and dairy products has fallen sharply. Over the past year, Iranian households struggled to afford them. And how are the authorities responding? Well, on Friday, the head of Iran's dairy cooperative union, did you know they had one, announced that processors are barred from raising dairy prices without official permission, and warned that violators could face prosecution. Of course, threatening producers doesn't make cattle feed or packaging or transportation or energy any cheaper. Those, of course, are the costs that dairy producers say are driving prices higher. Now, turning to the White House and their efforts to deal with the Iran conflict, according to Axios, President Trump met with his national security advisors on Thursday to weigh options, including renewed military action, a diplomatic settlement of some sort, or continued economic pressure. Some of the administration reportedly believed that keeping the economic pressure on Tehran could eventually force concessions without another major bombing campaign. The economic figures being reported by various Iranian agencies certainly do show a country under immense strain, but there's a difference between making life more difficult for Iran's government and convincing that government to change its behavior, particularly when the regime's leadership is more than happy to pass that pain down to the average citizen. And there's one more distinction worth remembering. An economy can be in terrible shape, while its military and security forces still remain capable of causing serious trouble. It doesn't take a "delthy industrial sector" necessarily to lay naval mines or launch relatively inexpensive drones or threatened commercial tankers passing through the street of Hormuz. So Iran's economy may be circling the drain, but that does not mean that Tehran has run out of ways to make life difficult for the U.S., its allies, and international shipping. All right, coming up next, just 10 months after U.S. forces captured Nicholas Maduro Washington is negotiating a deal with the interim government that could put American troops on Venezuelan soil. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. With another holiday shopping tip, because well, the holidays are right around the corner. Now we all know that holiday shopping can be tough, right, when you want to find something truly meaningful for somebody on your list. Now for me, thinking about my family and especially as we get older, made me realize that the best thing I could give them wasn't necessarily just some physical gift, but better health and peace of mind. And that's why superpower makes such a great gift this year. Using superpower provides simple and deep insights into what's actually happening inside your body. Superpower tests over 100 biomarkers every single year, covering key areas like Hormone's, metabolism, vitamins, thyroid, heart health. 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Earlier this week, we reported on a U.S.-backed drone strike inside Venezuela that showed a new level of military cooperation between Washington and Caracas. Now, it appears that the Trump administration is looking to make that relationship more official, with negotiations underway that could eventually allow American troops to maintain a long-term presence inside Venezuela. According to the New York Times, Secretary of State Marco Rubio's leading discussions with Venezuela.
as interim government on what's known as a "status of forces agreement" or "sofa" because of, of course, there's an acronym. These agreements establish the legal ground rules for American military personnel operating in foreign countries. They can cover everything from training exercises and intelligence cooperation to joint military operations and humanitarian missions. The U.S. has similar arrangements with more than 100 countries. In some cases, they support large American military installations. In others, they cover relatively small contingents of troops or military advisors. For now, the negotiations with Venezuela are still in their early stages. No agreement has been finalized and questions about how many American troops might deploy, where they would operate and how long they would remain, of course, have yet to be answered. A senior State Department official told the Times that discussions about establishing permanent American military bases were still a long way off, and that no such negotiations were currently taking place. Nevertheless, the discussions represent another major change in relations between the two countries. As we reported earlier this week, American drones were reportedly involved in an October 30 strike against a camp belonging to Colombia's National Liberation Army, known as ELN, inside Venezuela along the border with Colombia. The operation, reportedly carried out with Venezuela and cooperation, reportedly killed more than 20 people, although the precise casualty figures remain unconfirmed. For years, Venezuela had been accused of providing sanctuary to Colombian guerrilla organizations, allowing them to operate along the border and establish networks involved in drug trafficking and other criminal activities. Now, Venezuela forces are reportedly working alongside the Americans to dismantle some of those same networks. What the Trump administration appears to be pursuing now is a formal legal framework that could make those operations easier to coordinate and potentially expand. And geographically, Venezuela, of course, has considerable strategic value. The country has a long Caribbean coastline and borders Colombia, Brazil, and Guiana. A sustained American military presence could potentially support counter-narcotics missions, intelligence gathering, and other regional security operations. But there are obstacles. Venezuela's military infrastructure has deteriorated considerably, and American forces have had little direct engagement with the Venezuelan military for nearly a decade. There's also the question of how Venezuelans themselves would respond to American troops operating inside their country. Supporters of the former Maduro government remain very influential within the military and security services, and any expanded U.S. presence could provoke domestic opposition. Then, of course, there's the larger political question. The government negotiating this agreement with Washington may not be the government leading Venezuela a year or two from now. Opposition leader Maria Carina Machado returned to Venezuela late last month, of course, after nearly 10 months in exile. She's been pressing for presidential elections, while the Trump administration continues working closely with Delci Rodriguez, Nicholas Maduro's former VP. Rubio has encouraged political reforms intended to prepare Venezuela for elections, but no date has been established. And that raises an interesting question. Is Washington building a long-term military partnership with an interim government whose political future remains uncertain? And also, how interested is the Trump administration in pursuing elections and a change in government? Trump has often talked about how well the business dealings have been progressing with the interim government, of course, again led by Maduro's former Vice President. It's unclear if the White House views the opposition, Machado, and elections as the way forward or a possible disruptor or impediment to the growing business dealings with the interim government. For now, what we can say is that the relationship between Washington and Caracas has undergone a dramatic transformation. American forces went from capturing Venezuela's president in January to conducting military operations with his former government by the fall. And now, the White House appears interested in making that cooperation a more permanent feature of America's security strategy in Latin America. We'll be taking a closer look at all of this on this weekend's PDB situation report. When I'm joined by Rick Dillatory, the CIA's former station chief in Caracas, we'll discuss the growing military partnership between the US and Venezuela, as well as the return of opposition leader Maria Carina Machado and what it could mean for the country's political future. That's it and past episodes on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and of course on podcast platforms everywhere. And that my friends is the PDB. Well for today evening bulletin, again apologies for the late upload, but that is the joy of delay flights on a day of travel. And that's the evening bulletin for Friday the 6th of November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at
[email protected] and to listen to the show ad free, it's easy just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDBpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDB situation report. Until then stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey Mike Baker here, let me take just a minute to talk to you about an incredibly important subject. It's the absolute key to your health. Of course I'm talking about sleep, how to get good sleep. Let me ask you a question. Do you snore? Well I know it's a personal question, but as a result did somebody, I don't know maybe your partner hand you a CPAP machine and then, well did you just stop using it? CPAP users know right? The mask never quite seals the hose is tugging at you every time you roll over and eventually like the rower and the exercise bike, the machine ends up sitting abandoned in a closet. Well here's your answer, excite OSA works a different way. It treats a root cause instead of just managing the noise and you use it while you're awake. It's an FDA-clared prescription device for primary snoring and mild obstructive sleep apnea. 20 minutes once a day, maybe while the coffee brews or you're watching an episode of something and daily for six weeks and then a lighter routine to keep it. Most people notice a change in four to six weeks. In clinical studies, 90% of patients saw a reduction in snoring. And getting started straight forward, there's no sleep lab, no appointments, no sitting around a waiting room. You answer a few questions online, a license provider reviews them and it ships to your door. See if it's right for you. Get excite OSA at springsleep.com/PDB and use code PDB for 20% off. Again, that's excite OSA at springsleep.com/PDB and of course, thanks very much to spring sleep for sponsoring this episode. Disclaimer, excite OSA is an FDA-clared prescription-only device for primary snoring and mild obstructive sleep apnea. It's not for everyone individual results may vary, check out the risks and benefits at springsleep.com.
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