PDB Afternoon Bulletin | September 8th, 2026: Iran’s Biggest Source of Cash Is About To Run Out & Russia’s Renewed Kyiv Strikes

It's Tuesday, the 8th of September. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, from your eyes and ears, on the world stage. Oh, and by the way, congratulations to Ole Miss. They came out on top of the other day against Louisville, a bit of a nail-biter, but it's in the wind column. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues to impact Iran's economy, and new shipping data suggests the news is tightening on the regime's oil industry. Later in the show, Russia pounds Keb with missiles and drones immediately after U.S. envoy to part the region, killing civilians and damaging buildings across the capital. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The U.S. blockade of Iran may be approaching a critical point. New shipping data shows tech-arounds oil exports have been effectively trapped inside the Persian Gulf for nearly two months, and the massive stockpile of crude oil that Iran had positioned overseas to keep the money flowing. Well, that's rapidly running out. According to New Reporting from the Wall Street Journal, no Iranian crude has successfully crossed the U.S. blockade since it was reinstated back in mid-July. Iran is still producing oil, and it's still loading some of that oil onto tankers inside the Persian Gulf. But those newly loaded barrels are not reaching customers. So now has Tehran continued selling roughly a million barrels of oil a day, despite nearly two months of blockade? Well, the answer is Iran actually prepared for this blockade scenario. When diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran produced a temporary easing of the blockade back in June, you remember that. Iran moved enormous quantities of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf. By mid-July, roughly 90 million barrels of Iranian oil were already sitting aboard vessels beyond the blockade, positioned for eventual delivery, mostly the buyers in China. It amounted to a massive floating reserve. Once Washington resumed the blockade, Iran could still sell that oil that had been positioned beyond the strait. But that reserve is now reportedly running out. Kepler estimates the volume has fallen from roughly 90 million barrels in mid-July to around 29 million today. And at the current rate of delivery, that remaining supply could be exhausted by the middle of October. But even after that pre-positioned oil is gone, payments for previously delivered cargoes could continue reaching Tehran for another couple of months. However, according to the journal, those payments could largely dry up by mid-December. For months, Tehran has essentially been living off oil that it managed to get out before Washington decided a ceasefire or memorandum of understanding or temporary pause or whatever it was called, wasn't working. As a reminder, before the war, Iran was exporting close to two million barrels of crude every day. In August, it loaded an average of just 255,000 barrels a day on the vessels inside the Gulf, then 85% declined from the average earlier this year. And again, those newly loaded barrels remained trapped behind the blockade. Now, as alternatives go, moving the oil over land, well, that offers very little relief. Analysts estimate that Iran could transport no more than about 40,000 barrels a day by truck. Rail capacity is also limited in part because Iran lacks enough specialized rail cars designed to carry crude oil. And the longer that oil remains trapped inside Iran, the more difficult it becomes to store, because you run out of storage space. There are indications that Iran is already cutting production to prevent the storage facilities from filling up. And the squeeze is extending beyond just crude. Iran's petrochemical industry is the country's second largest source of foreign currency after oil. According to Kepler, petrochemical loadings by August had fallen roughly two thirds from levels seen earlier this year. Iran is also facing trouble with its most important customer. For years, Chinese refiners have provided Tehran with a critical lifeline, buying sanctioned crude that many other countries wouldn't touch. But Gulf energy officials tell the journal that some Chinese buyers are now shifting toward oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE. In some cases, Iranian crude, which traditionally sold at a discount because of the U.S. sanctions, is now actually more expensive for refiners because obtaining it has become so difficult. That's adding even more pressure to an Iranian economy that's already under enormous strain. Oil revenue typically provides roughly one-third of the Iranian government's budget, and supplies Tehran with the foreign currency that it needs to pay for imports and to support their currency, the Riyal. As those dollars disappear, Iran has less ability to prop up its currency, and as the Riyal weekends, imported food, machinery and raw materials become more expensive, pushing inflation even higher. Official inflation is already running above 80 percent year over year, according to the journal, while the International Monetary Fund expects Iran's economy to contract some 5.4 percent this year. The U.S. Treasury says Iran's armed forces, including the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, rely on dedicated companies and shadow fleet networks to sell crude and generate additional revenue for military operations. The strategy from Washington is to choke off enough of that revenue that Tehran can no longer finance its government, support its military, and keep its economy functioning without facing increasingly difficult choices. And there is growing evidence that the economic pressure is taking a toll. Of course, whether that changes Tehran's behavior is another matter. Analysts and golf officials tell the journal that they see little evidence that the regime is preparing to capitulate. In fact, Iran appears to be increasing support for its Houthi allies in Yemen, even as pressure builds at home. And this weekend, Tehran directly targeted American warships before the U.S. responded by striking three Iranian oil tankers. Coming up next, in a move that may shock only the most hopeful or naive believers in the power of diplomacy, Putin had barely waived goodbye to U.S. armed voice before ordering another massive barrage of missiles and drones on Kiev. You know, I'm starting to think that he's not really interested in a peaceful resolution. I'll be right back. It's 3am. Suddenly, there's a strange noise in the house. What do you do? Do you fumble for keys? Do you pray that the gun safe batteries aren't dead? Of course, leaving a firearm unprotected and unsecured? Well, that's not the answer. That's where the stop-box pro changes everything. 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The drop administration spent the weekend trying to move Russia and Ukraine closer to another round of U.S. mediated talks. But by Tuesday morning, Moscow was once again pounding Keeve with missiles and drones. Russia's latest barrage killed at least three people and wounded 19 others across the Ukrainian capital. Fires broke out in several districts, damaging at least 14 high-rise buildings along with a school, a clinic, warehouses, and several other sites. The European Union's ambassador to Ukraine described the scene pretty bluntly, saying, "Keeve was exploding and burning this morning." A Russian drone also partially destroyed the building of a Ukrainian television channel entering five people. As previously discussed here on the PDB, Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop striking each other's capitals for three days, while U.S. peace envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkov traveled between Moscow and Keeve and the Trump administration's latest attempt to restart negotiations. Those visits didn't produce a breakthrough. That's possibly an understatement on my part, but we are getting a clearer sense of what came out of them. The Americans spent more than three hours behind closed doors with Russian President Putin and Moscow, afterward Whitkov said they had heard "new ideas" or how about that from the Russian side, though he didn't reveal what those ideas were. The Kremlin also left the door open to another round of talks. Moscow said it wasn't ruling out restarting three-way negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. Whitkov later said the Americans had made "a lot of progress in Moscow" and that he was "very encouraged" by the discussions that followed with the Ukrainian team in Kiev. Is there anybody more helpful than an envoy? Zelensky said those conversations included the possibility of U.S. and European security guarantees for Ukraine, economic guarantees, and a post-war "prosperity plan." But less than 48 hours after the American envoys left Kiev, Russian missiles and drones were once again flying over the Ukrainian capital, so much for "a lot of progress" in Moscow. In Kiev wasn't the only target, Russia attacked eight other regions Tuesday. In the northern Sumy region, close to 100 people were evacuated after Russian drones struck a train. Another commuter train was also hit with some passengers wounded by Schravenol. Farther south, another Russian drone attack hit a passenger train in Zabralitsia, killing a railway worker in what emergency officials described as a "double-tab strike," meaning a second drone hit after the initial attack, targeting the first responders to the initial hit. Nero-desim, another attack hit a market wounding three people. Russia, for its part, says it was targeting military and logistical facilities, like markets and commuter trains. But the barrage also underscored a problem that Kiev's been warning its allies about for months. Ukraine, as has been reported, is running critically low on the interceptors that it needs to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles. Zelensky had raised that problem with Trump's envoys just two days earlier, discussing additional air defense supplies and energy support. As Ukraine prepares for another winter, in which Russia is expected to target the country's power grid. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday, the 8th of September. Now, if you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show, add free, it's very doable. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDBpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. The President's Daily Brief is brought to you by Mod. Mod prescribes a once or twice daily, medicinal drink that can keep you energized to focus and alert. That sounds very good. Here's the deal. 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