It's Tuesday the 1st of September look at that a brand new month welcome to the pdb afternoon bulletin I'm Mike Baker your eyes and ears on the world stage all right let's get briefed first up reports that Russian president Vladimir Putin you remember him well apparently he fears a failed end to the war could threaten his grip on power and his life as science grow that Moscow is preparing to escalate later in the show a new report says Chinese commercial ships may be doubling his intelligence platforms what spying on military communications near the US well that is shocking and by that I mean there's absolutely nothing shocking about it but first today's afternoon spotlight nearly five years into the war in Ukraine Vladimir Putin may be confronting a problem that goes well beyond the battlefield how to end the war without making himself look like a loser that's the focus of a new report from the economist which describes growing frustration among Russia's political and economic elite and a Kremlin increasingly worried that neither the status quo which of course isn't well nor a negotiated end to the war offers Putin an acceptable way out one source close to Putin told the magazine that at some point during the war the Russian president even told people around him quote they will hang me now that concern of his is fairly easy to understand Russian has now spent nearly five years fighting a war that was supposed to demonstrate the country's military power and expand the motherland but Putin still hasn't achieved even his minimum territorial objective capturing all the Donbass and according to people inside Russia's elite the amount of time already spent fighting is becoming a problem in its own right one source told the economist that the biggest concern is no longer simply Russia's economy or the lack of a decisive military breakthrough it's the fact that nearly five years have been spent pursuing something resembling a victory whatever the eventual outcome the source said that much time without a win increasingly looks like a failure another member of Russia's elite told the magazine there is a growing feeling that quote the czar is naked well that's not a visual that anybody needed now we should be careful not to overstate what this means there's no indication that Putin is about to lose control of Russia he still commands a vast security and intelligence apparatus his government continues to suppress organized opposition and Russia still has enough money and weapons and manpower to keep fighting public opinion is also more complicated than simply saying Russians have turned against the war recent polling from the independent levada center found that a majority of Russians favor beginning peace negotiations but the same polling also shows strong resistance to making concessions to Ukraine or the West in other words a growing number of Russians appear to want the war over but many still wanted to end on terms that look like a Russian victory and that leaves Putin with a difficult situation or as they say in Russian it's a conundrum ending the war without achieving his stated goals risks exposing just how much Russia has sacrificed for relatively limited gains but continuing indefinitely well that carries its own costs Russian economy is slowing Ukrainian drones have repeatedly struck were fine reasoned other infrastructure deep inside the country Moscow continues burning through soldiers at a staggering rate and every additional month of war consumes more money and political capital as one source told the economist simply allowing events to continue on their current course is increasingly disadvantages to the Kremlin which brings us to another possibility and one that we've been tracking closely here on the PDB that would be escalation for weeks we've been watching signs at Moscow may be preparing to dramatically increase the pressure on Ukraine and potentially on the western countries supporting it the economist now reports that sources close to the Kremlin believe Putin spent much of the summer weighing his options and has decided that escalation offers the best chance of breaking the current stalemate that could begin with manpower according to the magazine Russian sources believe Putin may seek to put another 300 to 400,000 men into the war now that wouldn't necessarily mean another nationwide mobilization like the one that Putin ordered in 2022 and was so unpopular with his population instead regional governments could face increasing pressure to find recruits themselves using bigger financial incentives aggressive recruitment campaigns and in some cases coercion there are already signs that Russia's manpower problem is getting harder to manage western officials recently estimated that Moscow is losing roughly 6000 more troops every month than it's able to replace and then there's the Ukrainian energy infrastructure Russia's defense ministry announced over the weekend that it is preparing massive strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities that raises the prospect of course of another sustained campaign against Ukraine's electrical grid heading into the colder months an effort designed not only to weaken the country's economy but also of course to increase pressure on the civilian population and the potential escalation may not stop at Ukraine's borders the economist reports a western intelligence services believe Russia could intensify its campaign of sabotage against Ukraine's European allies possible targets reportedly include factories producing military equipment for Ukraine along with the transportation and logistics networks used to move western weapons toward the front while western officials do not believe that Putin is looking for a direct military confrontation with NATO that still leaves plenty of room for operations below the threshold of open warfare cyber attacks sabotage arson covert action and other forms of hybrid warfare again that's a story that we've been tracking here on the PDB as suspicious incidents and alleged Russian operations have spread across Europe the key takeaway from the economists reporting is that growing pressure on Putin does not necessarily mean he becomes more willing to compromise if Putin believes that ending this war without a recognizable victory would threaten the image of strength on which his rule depends and simply cutting his losses becomes much more difficult and if maintaining the status quo is slowly draining Russia's resources without producing victory that option becomes obviously less attractive as well which leaves escalation as the remaining viable option not because it guarantees Putin a victory but because from where he sits he may well believe that the alternatives are far worse all right coming up next in today's edition of what the Chinese Communist Party is doing that shouldn't surprise anyone Chinese cargo ships may be carrying sophisticated spy equipment designed to intercept military communications near U.S. waters I'll be right back a mic Baker here now the president's daily brief is brought to you by mod mod prescribes a once or twice daily modafinal drink that can keep you energized focused and alert that sounds very good here's the deal caffeine energy drinks block what's known as adenosine that's the chemical that makes you tired it builds up and when caffeine wears off well of course there is the crash modafinal works differently it engages pathways in your brain dopamine no repinion histamine anorexan to achieve energy and alertness for 10 to 12 hours modafinal was invented in the 1970s and since then it's been used by soldiers pilots astronauts anyone in high-stakes situations for concentration and alertness visit mod dot com that's mod mod mod dot com for a free consultation and get 10 percent off your first order plus free shipping with promo code PDB that's promo code PDB at mod dot com see their website for important safety information and I 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the PDB sent you welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin a new warning from the Trump administration that could change how you think about Chinese cargo ships okay I know to be fair in today's busy world you probably spend precious little time thinking about Chinese cargo ships but just in case you do US officials say some are carrying equipment designed to spy on military communications near American shores honestly the details come from an exclusive new report by Reuters in which two senior Trump administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity well because they're not authorized open their pie holes describe what they say is a decades long intelligence collection partnership between China state owned shipping giant Costco and Beijing now as an aside and for clarity the Chinese shipping giant is Costco
C-O-S-C-O, not Costco, the big box store where you go to buy pallets of stuff that you don't really need, but that you can't resist. Here's how that relationship allegedly works. The Trump officials say some Costco vessels are essentially doubling his intelligence collection platforms as they sail near the coastlines of target countries, including the U.S. Now, the two officials wouldn't spell out what equipment is hidden aboard those ships, perhaps because they don't know, but they did make one thing clear. This is not ordinary communications hardware. They describe the gear as "sophisticated signals intelligence collection platforms, capable of gathering communication signals from ships and aircraft operating across North America, Europe and Asia." One official says China is specifically looking for information about "to military communications technologies and encryption developments." So, you have what outwardly appears to be a Chinese commercial cargo ship moving through the same waters it normally would, except officials within the Trump administration say equipment hidden aboard that ship is listening to and tracking for military signals as it goes. Now, here's where the sheer size of the Chinese shipping company comes into play. It's one of the largest shipping companies in the world and one of the biggest global shippers calling it U.S. ports. Costco even has several terminal service joint ventures for container ships at ports here in the U.S. Well, that is convenient. Now these allegations have not just surfaced today. In January of 2025, the Pentagon placed the company Costco, again, not the big box store, on its list of companies linked to China's military. Then, in April of 2025, a U.S. Naval War College report found it was likely that China's people's Liberation Army, the PLA, was harnessing the country's commercial shipping and fishing fleets for intelligence and surveillance. Yeah, that seems fairly obvious. I hope they didn't pay a lot for that report. And there's another important piece of context here. Chinese law requires the country's companies to support government intelligence work when called upon or when told to Beijing, however, is flatly denying the entire thing yet another piece of shocking information in this report. China's embassy in Washington insists, quote, "we oppose vilifying China by peddling the so-called intelligence collection narrative," which is totally baseless, end quote. The spokesman then, "Gafad slapped his knee and walked off with a wink to the press corps." Now, regardless of Beijing's claims of innocence, which seemed really plausible, this allegation is landing at a particularly sensitive moment in the U.S.-China relationship. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet in Washington later this month, with trade and security among the major issues hanging over those talks. Costco was already caught up in Trump's economic pressure campaign against Beijing. His administration had planned billions of dollars in port fees on Chinese shipping companies including Costco, before pausing that effort last October when the two sides reached a temporary agreement to ease tensions. That agreement is set to expire in November. And that my friends is the PDB afternoon Bulletin for Tuesday, the 1st of September. Until I listen to the show, add free, you can do that, you know, it's very simple, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB Premium.com. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a word about personal health and weight loss. Now everybody is talking about weight loss injections, right? Because the results are so dramatic, that they work by lowering blood sugar and reducing appetite. But what if you're looking to lose weight and not interested in painful weekly injections, especially when you hear about some of those side effects? Well, that's why doctors created a weight loss supplement called Lean, LEAN, and the results are remarkable. The studied ingredients in Lean have been shown to lower your blood sugar, burn fat by converting it into energy, and curb your appetite and cravings, so you're not as hungry. But listen, Lean is not for the casual dieter with only a few pounds to lose. The doctors at Burke House Nutrition created Lean for frustrated dieters with 10 or more pounds to lose. Let's get you started with 20% off and free rush shipping so you can add Lean to your healthy diet and exercise plan. Visit TakeLean.com and enter PDB for your discount. That's promo code
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