PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 27th, 2026: Russia and Ukraine Agree to Rare Ceasefire After Years of War

It's Tuesday, the 27th of October. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, a rare diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine, as Russia and Kiev, agreed to temporarily halt fighting in a city devastated by years of war. I'll have the details. Later in the show, Hezbollah is quietly rebuilding its arsenal with Iranian money, producing armed drones and preparing for another possible showdown with Israel. Now the Iranian people may be facing a crumbling economy with soaring food prices and a near worthless currency and severe economic hardships, but the Islamic Republic leadership, whoever they are at this point, are still funneling money to their proxies to buy weapons and missiles and drones. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this regime will never change its stripes. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a rare ceasefire in a Russian-occupied city, allowing thousands of trapped civilians a chance to escape years of fighting. But Putin's humanitarian instincts only go so far. Even as the agreement takes effect, Moscow is continuing its assault on the rest of Ukraine, launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles in one of its latest large-scale attacks. The ceasefire centers on Oleshky. That's a city and southern Ukraine. The Russian forces captured during the opening days of the invasion back in February of 2022. According to the Financial Times, the agreement took effect early Tuesday morning, establishing a temporary pause in fighting to allow humanitarian operations in and around that city. Before the war, Oleshky was home to roughly 24,000 people. Today, an estimated 2,000 civilians remained trapped there, living under increasingly desperate conditions. Food, medicine, clean water, and electricity are all very much in short supply. The city was also devastated by the destruction of the Kakova Dam in 2023, which resulted in catastrophic flooding across the region. And for those hoping to escape, the journey has been extraordinarily dangerous. Roads are littered with destroyed vehicles, land mines, threatened evacuation routes, and drones have made traveling through the area even more dangerous. Under the new temporary limited agreement, Russian forces are expected to clear mines from designated routes, allowing buses to begin evacuating residents later this week. Humanitarian supplies are also expected to reach civilians who choose to remain. But perhaps the most surprising part of the story is how the ceasefire came together, reportedly. The White House credits First Lady Melania Trump, with helping secure the agreement, working with civilian negotiators from Russia and Ukraine, following discussions with the UN officials. Pope Leo XIV also reportedly played a role, speaking directly with Russian President Putin, earlier this month to press for humanitarian access. The agreement was announced by the White House last Friday, before taking effect early Tuesday morning. However, even this limited humanitarian operation comes with complications. According to the Financial Times, some evacuees could be transported through Russian-occupied Crimea or into Russia before eventually reaching Ukrainian controlled territory. Ukrainian President Zelensky has expressed concerns that Moscow could exploit those evacuations for propaganda, portraying civilians traveling into Russian territory as evidence of support for Russian rule. And while the ceasefire offers a temporary reprieve for a Leshky, the rest of Ukraine is experiencing a very different, although fairly familiar, reality. As the agreement was taking effect, Russia launched another massive overnight bombardment. According to Zelensky, Moscow fired more than 280 drones and 16 ballistic missiles at targets across 11 Ukrainian regions. In Kiev, the attack struck areas around a university campus, residential buildings, transportation infrastructure, and a major bridge. Ukrainian officials reported casualties in the capital, with additional deaths reported in Karkiv. Moscow maintains that its strikes targeted military-related transportation, logistics, and industrial facilities. Ukrainian officials dispute that characterization, pointing to damage to civilian infrastructure. Now the contrast is striking. Russia and Ukraine have found enough common ground to temporarily suspend fighting in one devastated city, even as the broader war continues with very little sign of slowing down. The development also comes amid renewed diplomatic efforts to bring the conflict to an end. President Trump's envoy Steve Whitgolf recently met with Zelensky before traveling to Russia for discussions with Putin, the humanitarian. Meanwhile, the Russian President has held conversations with the leaders of Finland and Norway to NATO countries that share borders with Russia. And representatives for Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are expected to hold another round of technical-level negotiations in Abu Dhabi next month. For now, the ceasefire in Zelensky represents a limited temporary breakthrough, offering desperately needed relief to civilians who've spent years trapped in a war zone. All right, coming up next, Hezbollah is racing to rebuild after suffering devastating losses against Israel. Iran is supplying millions of dollars to restore Hezbollah's arsenal and fighting force, while new reporting raises serious questions about whether the group can survive another war. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now we have all heard those radio ads about the IRS. 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They describe a rebuilding effort that's been underway for the past three months, with tens of millions of dollars in fresh military funding coming from Iran. Now, not to be cherished, but that's tens of millions of dollars that could have been spent at home to benefit the Iranian people. And that's just a military side. When Lebanese security source and a source close to Kezbollah said Tehran also supplied roughly $200 million to help families in the group's Shiite heartlands. Iran has been invested in Kezbollah from the beginning. The Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, founded the group in 1982. Now, after two wars with Israel since 2024, Tehran is helping its proxy recover. Following the American Israeli attack on Iran and on the 28th of February, Kezbollah, in concert with the IRGC, opened fire in support of Tehran on March the 2nd. That decision triggered an Israeli offensive that, according to Reuters, killed more than 4,000 people and displaced a quarter of Lebanon's population. That fighting largely subsided over the summer when an interim agreement between Washington and Tehran included a ceasefire in Lebanon. The US also mediated talks between Israel and the Lebanese government, which, as we've discussed, has little to no control over Hezbollah. That American Iranian agreement, of course, collapsed so far, full-scale fighting Lebanon has not resumed, although Israel continues conducting occasional strikes in the south against Hezbollah targets. Two Lebanese security sources told Reuters that Hezbollah has used the law since June to acquire explosives and produce armed drones. This month, Lebanese authorities seized explosives that Hezbollah acknowledged were its own. The groups said they were intended for use against Israel. The Hezbollah official and Lebanese security source told Reuters, more specifically, that the materials were for explosive drones. Now, having weapons is, of course, one thing, being able to coordinate the fighters through established leadership is another. One Lebanese source and three security officials told Reuters that Hezbollah's command and control capabilities have been significantly reduced as a result of Israel's efforts to take out Hezbollah's senior leadership. The officials describe Hezbollah operating in small units and rationing in anti-tank rockets. Some of those formations were left struggling to respond to Israel's remotely operated weapons, including weaponized drones and armed remote control vehicles. The Israeli military told Reuters it uses those systems in southern Lebanon to monitor activity and reduce the risks to its personnel. Hezbollah disputes that account of its command failures. Its media office denied that leadership lines had broken down. Hezbollah also argues that Israel's occupation of Lebanese territory gives the group a legitimate right to resist. But whatever Hezbollah's public position, Reuters says its stockpiles and fighting force have not been fully rebuilt. And to be clear, Hezbollah explicitly said it would not join renewed hostilities. Its media office told Reuters it was wary of giving Israeli leaders a justification to escalate in Lebanon, particularly because it feared seeing its supporters displaced all over again. Yes, they're so worried about their supporters. So the group is rebuilding, but its leadership is also worried about what another round of fighting could bring. Washington, meanwhile, is trying to restrict the Iranian money supporting that effort. A State Department spokesman told Reuters that the US would continue squeezing Hezbollah's finances through sanctions and other measures. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon Bulletin for Tuesday, the 27th of October. Now, if you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show Add Free, just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief. It's very easy to do and just visit PDBpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Now, you may have noticed that the US midterm elections are heating up. That's putting it diplomatically and they're right around the corner. Congressional control possibly, Senate control and President Trump's agenda are all basically on the ballot and up for grabs. Every new poll and every new article has a potential to shift the odds. And here's the thing. CalShi, America's number one prediction market platform, let you trade those predictions in a live market. Now, one race worth watching is Michigan, where Democrat Abdul Al-Sahed is facing Republican mic Rogers for an open Senate seat. 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