PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 1st, 2026: Iran Is Preparing for a Much Wider War & Hezbollah’s Secret Syria Meeting

It's Thursday, the first of October. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage, still kicking about on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting says Erad is preparing for a harder, more aggressive retaliation if the U.S strikes again, even as negotiations supposedly continue through Katari mediators. Later in the show, we'll take a look at reports that Hezbollah has secretly met with Syria's new government, marking a remarkable turn after years spent fighting to keep former strong men aside in power. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. Iran is preparing for the possibility that the current diplomacy fails, and according to new reporting, the regime wants the next round of fighting to look very different from the last one. Reuters reports that senior Iranian commanders are now reviewing plans for a broader and more forceful response if the U.S. resumes large-scale attacks. Now, no final decision has been made, but officials familiar with the discussions say the planning has intensified, as neither Washington nor Tehran shows a willingness to compromise. Iranian officials say commanders are looking beyond American linked assets and considering countries that support U.S military operations. Some scenarios could even evolve targets outside the Middle East. Tehran has also reportedly instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to prepare to support Iran if another major American campaign begins. Well, that is, honestly, nothing new for this regime. They've already had the Houthis attacking Saudi interests and further disrupting global energy markets. One source described the concept as a coordinated response, stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to U.S. interests across the region and potentially beyond it. Of course, for Iran, making plans and issuing threats and then actually carrying them out, well, those are two very different things. Seven months of war have degraded Iranian military capabilities, and the regime's ability to coordinate a wider regional response would depend in part on allied proxy groups that have been under pressure themselves. So the ambition of these plans doesn't necessarily tell us what Iran could successfully execute. But what is interesting here is the thinking behind those plans. The regime appears determined not to answer another American attack with a limited or largely symbolic response, instead, Iranian leaders believe they need to go big and escalate more aggressively in order to reestablish deterrence, essentially convincing Washington that another major round of strikes would come with much higher costs. But that creates its own problems for the regime, because another major war is also something Iran has, well, strong reasons to avoid. The U.S. blockade has severely restricted Iranian oil exports, and it's a critical source, of course, of government revenue. The reall has fallen sharply, it's close to the region of two and a half million reall to the dollar currently. Years of sanctions have already weakened the economy, and Iranian officials are also reportedly worried about the possibility of renewed unrest at home, as economic conditions continue to deteriorate. So Iran is preparing for a wider fight, at the same time that the pressure on the regime should, one would think, discourage them from engaging in one. But that is not the logic train that the Iranian regime is on. Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, we're learning that their recent round of talks may have been closer to completely falling apart than initially reported. Axios reports the Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's delegation to the U.N. to leave the U.S. Monday evening after negotiations reached a stalemate. According to the report, American officials had begun the day believing that there might be some progress, because, well, frankly, the optimistic hopeful thinking, in the face of evidence of the contrary, knows no bounds with on-voys and mediators in the State Department types. By later that afternoon, those hopes had faded, and Rubio decided the Iranian delegation had, in the words of one U.S. official, quote, "overstate their welcome." Well, you could say that the regime has been overstaying its welcome since, I don't know, 1979. Now, there is an important bit of context here. Another source told Axios that Foreign Minister Abbas Araqi was already scheduled to leave New York that night, so this was not necessarily a dramatic expulsion in the way that the phrase might suggest. But the diplomatic message was clear, Washington believed the talks had hit a wall. Within hours, Araqi traveled to Doha, where Qatar continued trying to keep the negotiations alive. The following day, Qatar mediators delivered the latest U.S. response to Iran and the regime's leadership, who a member of that may be, is now reportedly reviewing it. So the diplomatic channel has not closed, reportedly, at least according to the ever-hopeful mediators and diplomats. But the talks do appear to be on life support. Iranian officials privately told Reuters that even if Teferan does not reject the American response outright and indirect negotiations continue, they do believe an agreement remains unlikely, at least in the near term. And that helps explain why Iranian commanders are spending so much time preparing for what comes next. All right, coming up next, Syria's new government and Hezbollah are quietly testing whether they can coexist, despite years of conflict and bloodshed. I'll be right back. Mike Baker here with a word about personal health and weight loss. 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Your business deserves a partner that moves as fast as you do. Approval in minutes, funding the same day. Visit Cardiff.co/PDB. That's Cardiff.co/PDB. Real growth. Fast funding. Cardiff. Barrow better. Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin. Chesbola once set fighters into Syria to help keep then-dictator Bashar al-Assad in power. But last month, the Iran-backed group sent representatives to Turkey for secret talks with the very government that replaced him, with the goal of easing regional tensions, supposedly, because, of course, Chesbola and Iran are all about easing regional tensions. That revelation comes from an exclusive Reuters report, citing six sources briefed on the talks. They say the two sides met at least once in September, in their first known face-to-face meeting. Those sources included two Syrian officials, a U.S. official, and a senior Lebanese security source, supposedly close to Chesbola. All spoken anonymously because of the sensitivity of the discussions. Now to understand how they got here, you have to consider how much Chesbola lost when Assad fell. A lightning rebel offensive, toppled him in late 2024, leaving Chesbola facing a new leadership that accused the Iranian-backed terror group of continuing to move weapons to the Syrian territory. Washington had also encouraged Syria's military to send forces into Lebanon to fight Chesbola. But in July, the Syrian foreign minister said Damascus was open to meeting Chesbola. A month later, Chesbola leader Naim Kasem said in a televised address that his group had no objection to meeting Syria's leadership. The Lebanese security source told Reuters that the contact between the two sides, through Turkey, began about two months ago. Now Turkey is an ally of Syrian President Ahmed al-Shirah, and they want a leading role in rebuilding and stabilizing Syria. Under President Erdogan, they've also sought to facilitate regional dialogue. Three sources told Reuters that Ankara pushed for the meeting to be directly involved. Turkish security and intelligence agencies extended the invitation bringing Chesbola representatives together with officials from Serious Intelligence Service has foreign ministry. According to the US official, the Syrian officials and the Lebanese source, the discussions went well and focused on resolving the points of tension between them. So, what were they asking of each other? Khazbullah wanted to assurances against a Syrian attack inside Lebanon, as the Lebanese security source put it, quote, "Hazbullah wants to protect its flank." One Syrian official said both sides agreed they held no hostility toward one another, and Damascus assured Khazbullah it would not intervene militarily in Lebanon to disarm the group. But Damascus had demands of its own. Syrian officials asked the group to help stop cross-border weapons smuggling and dismantle its alleged remaining sleeper cells. And then on Tuesday, Syrian authorities announced that they had captured what they described as a Khazbullah cell preparing to launch rockets in southern Syria. If accurate, that would mean that Khazbullah was seeking restraint from Damascus while also, at the same time, preparing to fuel further instability inside Syria. I cannot imagine that the Iran-backed Khazbullah would speak out of both sides of its mouth. Khazbullah denied involvement Wednesday, saying it, quote, "has no presence whatsoever on Syrian territory and has no involvement in any security or military activity there." End quote. At the meeting, Khazbullah's representatives promised not to interfere in Syria's affairs, well, that's nice, but did not directly answer its security requests, the "seriet official," said. Even with those questions unresolved, the Lebanese source, who had direct knowledge of the meeting and its outcomes, said the two sides, quote, "made a lot of progress on security issues." End quote. But progress did not produce a deal, and the Lebanese security source pointed to Iran, which wasn't in the room. Khazbullah attended with the regime's knowledge, but reportedly, Iran was disappointed at being left out of direct participation. Now Sharap had also rejected direct ties with Iran for now. The Lebanese security source said Iran's disappointment was the main reason that no final agreement emerged and no announcement followed. The Syrian official also confirmed that there was no agreement and that no announcement had been planned. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday, the 1st of October. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show Add Free, you can do that. It's very, very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDPremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe, stay cool. 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