PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 14th, 2026: Can Saudi Arabia Finally Defeat the Houthis? & Ukraine’s Starshield Restrictions

It's Wednesday, the 14th of October. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the Iran-backed Yemen Houthis have struck the headquarters of Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil giant, that would be Aramco, as Riyadh presses ahead with a major offensive in Yemen. After more than a decade of fighting, can the Saudis finally defeat the Iran-backed Houthis? Later in the show, Ukraine says new restrictions on SpaceX's military satellite network are disrupting battlefield operations, raising questions about American support, as Vladimir Putin continues hammering the country's power grid. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The Houthis have delivered another blow to Saudi Arabia on the home front, this time striking the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the kingdom's state-owned oil giant. Overnight, a Houthi ballistic missile hit the company's headquarters in the eastern city of Daghran, damaging the upper floors of a building used by senior executives, including the office of Aramco's chief executive. No casualties were reported. The attack comes as Saudi Arabia presses ahead with a major military offensive in Yemen, aimed at driving the Houthis out of territory that they've controlled for years. And it raises a question that's been hanging over this conflict for more than a decade. Can Saudi Arabia actually defeat the Houthis? Now, on paper, this shouldn't even be a contest. Saudi Arabia has one of the largest and most expensive militaries in the Middle East, equipped with advanced American-made fighter jets, sophisticated air defense systems, and billions of dollars worth of military hardware. Yet, despite all those advantages, the kingdom has, spent more than a decade struggling to defeat a rebel movement in one of the poorest countries on earth. To understand why, well, we have to go back to 2004, when the Iran-backed Houthis launched an insurgency against Yemen's government. Over the following decade, the movement expanded its territorial control, eventually capturing the capital Sana'a in 2014. That prompted Saudi Arabia to intervene the following year, leading a coalition intended to restore Yemen's territory. The Houthis, who had been fighting the Houthis for years, started to destroy Yemen's internationally recognized government. Riyadh expected its overwhelming military superiority to produce a relatively quick victory. Instead, the war dragged on for years. Saudi aircraft bombed Houthi positions, coalition-backed troops launched repeated ground offensives, and the rebels responded with missiles and drones targeting Saudi territory. A United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 dramatically reduced the fighting, but it never produced a permanent settlement. And now, 11 years after the Saudi intervention began, the kingdom finds itself launching yet another major offensive. So, one asks themselves, why are the Houthis so difficult to defeat? Well, first, there's geography. The Houthis' historical stronghold is in northern Yemen, particularly the mountainous province of Saada, along the southern Saudi border. This is where the movement originated, and its terrain the Houthis know well. Saudi fighter jets can destroy buildings, and they can destroy buildings, and they can destroy buildings, and they can destroy vehicles, and weapons depots. But air power alone cannot occupy territory. That requires infantry moving through rugged mountains and narrow valleys, where the defenders have an enormous advantage. Second, the Houthis don't have to defeat Saudi Arabia's military in a conventional battle. They can disperse their fighters, conceal missile launchers, and rely on relatively inexpensive drones that threaten targets inside Saudi Arabia worth billions of dollars. Even when Saudi defenses intercept, most incoming weapons, a single successful strike can inflict serious damage. And third, well, there's Iran. The Iranian regime has provided the Houthis with weapons technology, training, intelligence, munitions, and other assistance that help transform a local insurgency into a force capable of threatening international shipping and Saudi infrastructure. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and personnel have been on the ground with the Houthis, providing guidance and targeting support. But the Houthis aren't simply an Iranian military unit. They do have their own leadership and local support networks and political ambitions. Cutting off Tehran's assistance would definitely weaken them, but it wouldn't necessarily make them disappear. And there's another problem. The Houthis' opponents have never been particularly unified. Yemen's internationally recognized government, southern separatists, tribal forces, and other factions all have different objectives. Fighting a common enemy doesn't mean they can't fight each other. The Houthis have been able to do that, and they agree on what Yemen should look like after the fight. Now, none of these problems are unique to Yemen. They're the same challenges that have frustrated powerful militaries fighting insurgencies around the world, including, of course, the U.S. and Afghanistan. You can overwhelm an enemy with superior firepower and capture territory and kill its commanders. But if the insurgents can retreat, regroup, and continue fighting, winning battles doesn't necessarily bring you any closer to winning the war. However, there are reasons to believe that Riyadh may be better positioned to defeat the Houthis today than they were during the previous campaign. Earlier this month, tens of thousands of Yemeni government-aligned troops launched a counteroffensive backed by Saudi airpower. Their objectives include recapturing territory near the strategically vital Bab al-Mandeb Strait and eventually retaking Sana'a. And Riyadh now has additional military partners. As we've covered here on the PDB, Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense agreement with the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan and Turkey back in August. Both countries possess substantial military capabilities and their assistance could change the equation. Pakistan has a large, experienced army and long-standing military ties with Saudi Arabia. Its personnel and equipment could help strengthen Saudi defenses, provide technical expertise, and ease the burden on Saudi forces. Turkey brings sophisticated drone technology, electronic warfare capabilities, and considerable experience fighting irregular forces. Ankara has already begun providing technical and defensive assistance. However, Turkish officials have ruled out participating in offensive operations inside Yemen. Pakistan's direct combat role also remains uncertain. The Saudis are reportedly exploring still more reinforcements. We reported last week that Syria is considering sending between 10,000 and 20,000 troops to support the campaign, although Damascus has not made a final decision. Washington is in as well. American officials say the U.S. is providing intelligence and targeting assistance, but President Trump has so far declined Saudi requests to commit American forces directly to the fighting. Taken together, those relationships could give Riyadh capabilities and options that it lacked during earlier stages of the conflict years ago. But of course, there's the larger question. What exactly constitutes victory? Recapturing the Red Sea coastline is one objective. Retaking Sana'a is another. But what exactly constitutes victory? Retaking Sana'a is one objective. only three minutes, has absolutely no impact on your personal credit. to apply and offer same-day funding up to $500,000. If you've been in business for a year or more with at least $20,000 a month in revenue, get the capital you need today. Your business deserves a partner that moves as fast as you do. Approval in minutes, funding same day. Visit cardiff.co slash pdb. That's cardiff.co slash pdb. Real growth, fast funding. Cardiff, borrow better. Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Keeve says unexpected restrictions on SpaceX's satellite network are disrupting Ukrainian military missions. It's another complication for Ukraine, as Russia continues targeting its energy infrastructure with near-daily drone and missile barrages. The service in question is called Starshield. It's the military-grade version of Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network. Ukrainian officials say their forces began running problems in the field, and only after contacting SpaceX customer support did they learn new restrictions had been imposed. Seriously. They're battling Putin's invading army and daily air assaults, and they had to call the customer support line to find out about a disruption in service. Ah, press 1 if you're currently under attack. Press 2 if you need to communicate with frontline commanders. Press 3 if you need bill-paying assistance. Or something like that. In other words, the first indication that something had changed came when military operations were already being affected. An advisor to President Zelensky said, our defense forces received no warning of this restriction, and this has led to the disruption of a number of missions. So, what are these restrictions actually doing? According to a Ukrainian military source who spoke to CNN, terminals aboard vehicles and other military equipment lose their connection once they reach speeds of 100 miles an hour. Now, for a vehicle traveling on the ground, that might sound like a fairly high threshold, but fast-moving drones can readily exceed that speed, meaning those carrying affected terminals could lose their satellite connection during a mission. The effects also extend to frontline logistics, communications, and reconnaissance. One Ukrainian military source described the complications to CNN as, quote, substantial. Ukraine's defense ministry is now working with the U.S., with SpaceX and NATO allies, to test and implement backup communication channels. But that does not answer the question of why these restrictions were introduced now. The timing is especially notable because, as we've been tracking here on the PDB, relations between President Trump and Zelensky have grown more strained over Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and Trump's desire to reduce fuel prices at the gas pump for U.S. voters heading into the midterm elections. Zelensky's advisor believes the two are connected. He said, quote, It's clear that this action cannot be a coincidence and is linked to the current political situation, end quote. Now, that is his assessment, reporting so far it is not established that Washington ordered these restrictions or that SpaceX imposed them in response to Ukraine's refinery campaign. However, Elon Musk has made his own position on those attacks clear. He wrote on X that, quote, Zelensky has gone too far, referring to Ukraine's strikes, against Russian fuel facilities. Really? Remember, Ukraine spent months hitting Russian refineries, contributing to fuel shortages inside Russia. But the Trump administration reportedly warned that continuing those strikes could jeopardize intelligence sharing and European purchases of American weapons for Ukraine. Somewhere off in the distance, Putin continues to chuckle. Zelensky has since agreed to halt the campaign. Ukraine's last reported refinery strike was on Friday. But has not put the questions about American support to rest. On today's PDB, I discussed Zelensky's statement that Ukraine received no early warning from its partners before five Russian ballistic missiles struck Kiev. That attack hit a major power plant and damaged residential buildings. Zelensky did not identify the partners involved or accuse Washington of cutting off intelligence. But coming after the administration's warning, the missing alert raised an obvious question. Was Ukraine still receiving the support that it depends on? The reality is that the U.S. can detect Russian ballistic missile launches in essentially real time. That intelligence, then, can, of course, be shared with Ukraine to provide early warning for relevant cities and populations. The question is, was there a decision on this occasion not to share that intelligence if, in fact, the U.S. was aware of the launches? Well, Trump says they are sharing intel. Asked Tuesday, he told reporters, quote, we're sharing intel. We want the war to end, end quote. A Ukrainian official also suggested that the missing warning could have resulted from an operational failure rather than a deliberate decision to withhold information. But with satellite restrictions now disrupting military missions as well, Ukrainian officials are facing fresh uncertainty about capabilities that their rely heavily on. And all of this is unfolding more than four years into Russia's full-scale invasion. As we reported, on Monday, the president over the weekend said both sides had agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure. Well, Moscow never confirmed its acceptance, and the Kremlin says the details of any discussions are still being negotiated. And in fact, Russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure within hours of Trump's Truth Social posting about that supposed ceasefire. Zelensky said that he learned about the ceasefire after reading about it on Truth Social. Kremlin spoke on Twitter, saying, The work in that direction is continuing. Well, that's a nice, vague statement, isn't it? But while that work continues, so do the Russian attacks. The latest barrage came overnight into Wednesday, targeting Ukraine's power grid as well as oil and gas facilities. Ukraine's prime minister says all three of Kyiv's combined heat and power plants were hit. Zelensky says at least 600,000 people were left without electricity. Now, Ukraine remains willing to abide by an energy truce if Russia does the same, Zelensky says. But Putin is showing no signs of slowing down Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as the winter approaches. Meanwhile, the White House has cut a deal with Putin to ease sanctions on fuel exports, while continuing to act as if Zelensky is to blame for gas prices and for not making a deal with Putin. If Trump's irritation with Zelensky does in fact lead to reduced intelligence sharing by the U.S., it's going to be a big deal. And if he doesn't, then he's going to have to deal with the very long cold winter for Ukraine. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Wednesday, the 14th of October. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, you can do that. It's very, very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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