PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 12th, 2026: Iran's Leadership Crisis Is Getting Worse & Trump's Ukraine Ceasefire Falls Apart

It's Monday, the 12th of October. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, Mirais and Ears, on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's leaders are sending conflicting messages about negotiations with Washington, highlighting key questions at the heart of the conflict. Who's actually running the country? And who or what leadership group can actually negotiate and sign off on any potential deal? Later in the show, man, here we go. President Trump announces an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on energy infrastructure. But there's just one slight technicality. Moscow and Kiev never agreed to it. Now, I'm no ceasefire expert, but typically the two sides in any conflict need to be willing participants in order for it to actually be a ceasefire agreement. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Iran is, once again, talking about a possible agreement with the US. But after more than seven months of war, there's a basic question hanging over those negotiations. Who exactly has the authority to make a deal on the regime's behalf? Well, the latest confusion began yesterday. When most in Rezae, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council rejected Washington's response to Tehran's seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Rezae said the Americans had accepted some demands, but left others unresolved and declared that Iran was no longer responding to Washington, so there. Then, just this morning, Iran's Foreign Ministry delivered a very different message. spokesman Esmail Bagayi said Tehran was still reviewing the American response, would reply through intermediaries, and continued exchanging messages with Washington. Now, those statements, as you may have noticed, directly contradict each other. Rezae didn't suggest negotiations were merely stalled. He declared that Iran was no longer responding to Washington. Less than 24 hours later, the Foreign Ministry insisted diplomatic exchanges were continuing. Now, it does help to understand that these messages are coming from two very different parts of Iran's government. Rezae comes from the Security Establishment. He's a former commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, who now heads the country's top security council. Bagayi, meanwhile, represents the civilian government. He's the Foreign Ministry spokesman, whose department has been handling diplomatic contacts with Washington, which brings us back to a familiar question that we've been asking throughout this war. Who is actually calling the shots in Tehran? Iran's president, Musul Baszeshkin, has defended the concept of negotiations as the country struggles under sanctions, military damage, and the ongoing American naval blockade. But as we've discussed, the Revolutionary Guard Corps wields enormous military and economic power, and since the start of the conflict appears to have cemented their control over the Mullahs and political establishment. Key senior figures in the Security Establishment reportedly believe that Iran should keep fighting and impose greater costs on Washington. And of course, there's still the issue of Supreme Leader Moshtab Akhamani, the least visible of all Ayatollahs in the history of Ayatollahs. Seven months into the conflict in the country's supposed new Supreme Leader hasn't made a verified public appearance or delivered an independently authenticated video or audio address. Iranian officials have issued statements in his name and insist he's directing the country, no, seriously, he isn't charged, but there's no independent confirmation of his condition or his involvement in major decision-making. In September, Baszeshkin told CBS that he had met Hamani for more than seven hours into the Supreme Leader was healthy. He looks great, but reporting indicated that he only actually had a bizarre virtual meeting with him and never actually saw Hamani or spoke directly with him. And when CBS asked whether Hamani supported a deal with Washington, Baszeshkin offered an odd explanation. He described a six-member group representing security forces, parliament, and government institutions that coordinates major decisions. In other words, the president pointed to a committee rather than providing a clear account of the Supreme Leader's role in any decision-making. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Baszeshkin's civilian government is focused on unlocking billions in frozen Iranian funds and finding relief for an economy battered by the conflict. Hardliners, especially within the IRGC, are focused on preserving their leverage over the street of Hormuz. That's a fundamental disagreement over what Iran should get out of this confrontation. Reopening the street, of course, could help the economy recover, but surrendering control of shipping could also mean giving up one of the strongest remaining, possibly only remaining, leverage points that Tehran has to pressure the region and the US. Axios reported earlier this month that American officials worry that an agreement reached with Iran's diplomats might not be honored by the IRGC or their hardline elements, you think? Well, you don't need to be an American official to figure that one out. And now with Washington demanding nuclear concessions and Tehran insisting the immediate priority is the straight of Hormuz while the regime issues conflicting signals about what they want and how they might proceed, well, the whole process is now mired in the leadership questions. All right, coming up next, President Trump announces a ceasefire in Ukraine. Well, that doesn't exist. As Washington pressures keave to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, well, Putin, of course, continues attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Confused? Yeah, you're in good company. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, regular listeners of the PDB know that I spend a lot of time on the road, right? So I've become a bit of a, well, a travel luggage savant. And that's why I'm very happy to tell you about noble travel. That's noble N-O-B-L. Look, I've traveled with plenty of luggage in my day that looked great, but at the end of the day didn't hold up under travel conditions, or it just wasn't practical. That's why I love noble's all-in-one carry on. The first thing, yeah, it's completely zipperless. That's right, no zippers. Instead of worrying about a zipper breaking and eventually they always break, or worse, yet having your bag broken into because while the zipper is the weak link, noble uses a secure latch lock design that closes tightly, almost like a safe. 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What there was were ongoing negotiations on a much narrower proposal with protection for Ukraine's power grid left for a possible later agreement as winter approaches. And we'll talk about that some other time. We've seen this gap between announcements and reality before for Trump made a similar declaration last month, but neither Moscow nor Kiev confirmed a deal and both continued attacking energy infrastructure. Aside from the non-existent ceasefire, a White House official described the limited proposal that is reportedly under discussion to Axios as a "refinary for refinery ceasefire." Russia and Ukraine would first stop attacking each other's "oilware" fineries. I'm going to give you a spoiler alert. We'll talk about it here shortly, but Russia, well, Russia has 32 major oil refineries and dozens of other smaller operations. Ukraine has one refinery that hasn't worked for several years. If that arrangement were to go to an effect, Washington hopes a separate agreement protecting power plants and electricity grids could follow. The official told Axios, quote, "the Russians are thinking about it. We will know soon if they're ready." As we've been tracking, Kiev has spent months attacking Russia's extensive refinery network, disrupting fuel production and putting pressure on an energy sector that helps significantly define as Moscow's war. According to some estimates, Ukraine has taken out more than a half of Russia's oil refining capacity since its campaign began. Now, as I alluded to here just a short moment ago, as an aside, Russia has 32 major oil refineries and dozens of smaller refining operations. And, as mentioned, Ukraine only has one refinery, and that has been essentially non-operational since Russia targeted it in 2022. So, a refinery only cease fire would protect a major Russian industry while Ukraine, as a result of Russian attacks in the past, has nothing to protect when it comes to refineries. Now, that seems like a deal that Putin might just accept. For his part, President Zelensky did say he's willing to make a deal. Speaking Sunday, he said Ukraine would halt attacks on Russian refineries if Moscow stopped striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Well, that does seem a little more balanced, and it also seems like a deal that Putin might not accept. As for Trump's Sunday announcement of the mysterious cease fire, Zelensky told Axiol's quote, "Well, that was news for me, but if Russians agree to an energy cease fire, Ukraine will agree," end quote. But, hours after Trump's announcement, Russian forces struck Ukrainian power plants. Further attacks into early Monday morning hit energy facilities, including critical gas infrastructure. The disagreement over Ukraine's refinery campaign is, once again, straining Trump's relationship with Zelensky. After reaching Friday's deal with Putin, to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports, Trump remains focused now on Ukrainian refinery strikes, which he believes are driving up U.S. gas prices. And that, of course, can impact U.S. voters heading into the midterm elections. Ah, it's the circle of life. As mentioned on today's PDB, those strikes are only part of a broader supply problem that, of course, includes major disruptions tied to the war in the Middle East. White House officials told Axiol's that Ukrainian attacks on Russia are hurting Zelensky's relationship with Trump more than their damaging Russia. Oh, as one official put it, "Trump is really mad." He feels Zelensky is taking the U.S. for granted, end quote. Well, that pressure could, of course, now affect Ukraine's access to American weapons. 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