It's Thursday, the 27th of August, welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Die. Let's get briefed. First up, Kremlin insiders say that Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine as concern grows that Moscow could turn to the possibility of a tactical nuclear strike. Hmm, I'll have the details. Later in the show, a deadly car explosion kills a Russian military officer far from the front lines, the latest in a series of assassinations of Putin senior officers. But first, today's afternoon bulletin. A new report says Vladimir Putin is preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine and that a growing number of Russian officials believe the conflict could eventually lead Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon. That's the headline from Bloomberg, which cites multiple sources close to the Kremlin. But there is an important qualification. Bloomberg also reports that there are no signs that Russia is currently preparing to use a nuclear weapon. There is no reported movement of warheads, no indication that Putin has made such a decision and no evidence that a nuclear strike is imminent. What the reporting does show is that the nuclear option is being discussed reportedly more openly inside Moscow as Russian officials conclude that diplomacy has veiled and the war is entering a more dangerous phase. According to Bloomberg, the Kremlin is considering a major expansion of conventional strikes against Ukraine. That could include heavier ballistic missile attacks on Kiev, including the city center, as well as intensified attacks on infrastructure across other Ukrainian cities. The source said the current level of fighting does not represent the peak of Russian escalation. The thinking inside the Kremlin is reportedly that every mechanism for peace talks is collapsed while that might be because Putin doesn't want peace unless it's exactly on his terms. Now despite Putin not backing off his long-held maximalist demands, Moscow believes, or they've led themselves to believe, that they've already made concessions, that each one weakened its position without producing an acceptable settlement. That's a nice narrative on the part of the Kremlin. Russian officials reportedly hold little hope that President Trump's envoy, Steve Whitgolf and Jared Kushner, will return with a proposal capable of restarting serious negotiations. Putin also appears determined not to end the war under pressure from Western sanctions or Ukraine's escalating attacks against Russian oil or fighteries or logistics hubs or other economic targets. In fact, the Kremlin increasingly portrays those Ukrainian strikes as attacks carried out by NATO itself, because Western governments provide tea with weapons and intelligence and targeting assistance. Putin recently accused Ukraine of opening what he called a Pandora's box by striking economic targets and promised retaliation against Ukraine's most sensitive industries. It's almost like Vladimir Putin forgot that he started this whole mess with his invasion several years ago. And we're now learning more about just how seriously Washington is taking that danger. Earlier this week, we reported that CIA Director John Ratcliffe had made a rare previously unannounced trip to Moscow. The Wall Street Journal now reports that Ratcliffe's central message was, in a sense, a warning that Russia must not attack NATO. According to people braved on the visit, the warning followed new US intelligence, indicating that Putin could test the alliance with a limited cyber attack or military incursion against one of NATO's Baltic members within the next several years. Ratcliffe reportedly met with Sergei Norishkin, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service. Moscow has confirmed the meeting, but not what was discussed. Now, that does not mean the Washington believes a Russian attack on NATO is imminent, but it suggests that the administration sees a serious enough risk to deliver the message directly through the CIA Director. After all of that together in Moscow's near-term escalation ladder still appears heavily conventional. More ballistic missiles, larger attacks against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, potentially more troops, and increasingly direct pressure against the NATO government supporting Kiev. And that does fit a broader pattern that we've been tracking here on the PDB. Back in July, Reuters reported that Putin was likely to escalate despite the Trump administration's efforts to negotiate peace. And Kremlin connected source described the chances of escalation in the coming months as high. Russia has also spent this year strengthening the machinery that it would need for a larger mobilization. Its conscription system now operates throughout the year, supported by an electronic draft registry, and rules that keep medical eligibility decisions valid for longer. Now none of that proves another mass mobilization has been ordered, but it would make one easier to carry out. Meanwhile, voluntary recruitment has reportedly slowed, as Russia continues suffering heavy battlefield losses. Ukraine claims that Putin could draft another 300,000 troops after Russia's September elections and perhaps seek an even larger expansion next year. That remains a Ukrainian intelligence assessment, not a confirmed Kremlin decision, but it is consistent with Moscow preparing for a longer, more manpower intensive war. President Zelensky has also said Russia is working toward the capacity to produce as many as 1,300 ballistic missiles annually. Now Ukraine, by contrast, is struggling with a shortage of patriot interceptors and weapons that it relies on to stop those ballistic missiles. And that brings us back to the nuclear question. Some Russian officials reportedly believe that Putin could eventually view a tactical nuclear weapon as a last resort if he saw no other way to avoid defeat. Russia has also broadened its official nuclear doctrine, allowing for a nuclear response to certain conventional attacks supported by a nuclear armed country. Still, the probability of that remains, well, extremely low. A tactical nuclear weapon would offer uncertain military value against Ukraine's dispersed forces while imposing enormous political and strategic costs. It would shatter the nuclear taboo, risk a direct western response, and potentially damage Moscow's relationship with China, which has repeatedly warned against nuclear escalation. There is also another possibility that we should keep in mind. This report may itself be part of the pressure campaign or disinformation campaign. The information comes from anonymous Kremlin-connected sources at a moment when Moscow wants Washington and Europe to believe that continued support for Ukraine could produce uncontrollable escalation. Putin has repeatedly used nuclear threats to frighten western governments and influence decisions about weapons deliveries. So in reality, the most likely escalation is not a tactical nuclear strike. It's a larger conventional assault involving more missiles, more troops, and more attacks against Ukraine's cities and infrastructure. Alright, coming up next. A Russian officer is killed in a car explosion as attacks against Putin's military establishment move deeper inside Russia. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here, with a solid tip for staying healthy and feeling great. Look, you and I know that finding time for workouts, right, when life gets crazy, it feels impossible. Enter the Life Pro Waver Vibration Plate. In just 10 minutes, muscles constantly fire to stabilize, burning up 200 calories with zero joint impact, and that's very important. It's like a brisk walk in half the time. Stand on it while working or sit or add squats with resistant bands to amplify the burn, this thing is great. It really works well. Unlike flimsy knockoffs, the waiver is solid and premium, over 2.5 million people rely on America's number one vibration plate brand. 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PDB, that's Hexclad, that's HEX, C-L-A-D, Hexclad.com, forward slash PDB, and let them know the PDB sent you. Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin. Keeping the focus on Russia, a deadly car explosion in St. Petersburg is raising immediate questions because it resembles a series of recent attacks against targets connected to Moscow's war effort. Russian media reports say that a Russian military officer and his wife are traveling together today when their car exploded, killing the man instantly and sending his wife to the hospital with serious injuries. Russian authorities have not publicly identified either victim. The country's investigative committee says it's opened a criminal case after what it describes simply as a car catching fire, killing one person and injuring another. The Russian media is providing more detail. The St. Petersburg outlet, Fontanca, identifies the "man is a lieutenant colonel" other local reports describing as a "military pilot" although that has not been officially confirmed. No one has claimed responsibility. Ukraine is not commented and Russian authorities have not accused Kyiv or anyone else. Investigators have not even publicly confirmed that a bomb caused the explosion. But they will inevitably examine whether the incident is connected to a broader campaign, including Russia's military leadership and defense industry. Russia has blamed Ukraine for a string of previous assassinations and attempted killings, involving military officers, weapons producers, and other figures tied to Putin's invasion. Ukrainian sources have acknowledged involvement in some operations, denied others, and remained silent on several more. As examples, on the 13th of August, a bomb hidden inside a trash bin exploded as a Russian naval officer walked through Sevastopol in Russian occupied Crimea. Russian and independent media identified him as Robert Shageev, the deputy commander of a Russian black sea fleet submarine brigade. Now Shageev had previously commanded Ukraine's only submarine before switching allegiance to Russia when Moscow annexed Crimea back in 2014. Russian authorities arrested a woman in the Kyiv's turf, carrying out the assassination on behalf of Ukrainian intelligence. Those allegations have not been independently verified, and Kyiv has not commented. Earlier that month, a bomb exploded during a private party at a restaurant in central Moscow. The blast killed five people and wounded at least 19 others. Now several Russian media outlets claim the intended target was Colonel General Alexander Chikol, the commander of Russia's aerospace forces, and one of the country's most senior military officers, those reports have not been independently confirmed, but Chikol reportedly survived. Then on August 5, another explosion targeted a different part of Russia's war machine. A car carrying Vladimir Kochuk, the director of a factory producing drones for the Russian military, exploded outside Katerinaburg, nearly 900 miles east of Moscow. His driver was killed while Kochuk was hospitalized in great condition. No public evidence has connected that explosion to Ukraine, but it fits the target profile, seen in other attacks. Military commanders, weapons producers, and individuals directly involved in sustaining Putin's war. And that my friends is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday, the 27th of August. Now if you have any questions or comments and I hope you do, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free that's very simple, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB Premium dot com. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here with a word about personal health and weight loss. Now everybody's talking of course about weight loss injections because the results have been so dramatic. They work by lowering blood sugar and reducing appetite. But what if you're looking to lose weight, and you're not interested in painful weekly injections, right? Especially when you hear about some of those side effects, and that's why doctors created a weight loss supplement called lean, that's L-E-A-N, and the results have been remarkable. The study of ingredients in lean have been shown to lower your blood sugar, burn fat by converting it into energy, and curb your appetite and cravings, so you're not as hungry as simple as that, but listen, lean is not for the casual diet or with only a few pounds to lose. The doctors at Brick House nutrition created lean for frustrated dieters with 10 or more pounds to lose. Let's get you started with 20% off and free rushed shipping so you can add lean to your healthy diet and exercise plan. Visit TakeLean.com and enter PDB for your discount. That's promo code
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