(upbeat music)
- Oh, and welcome to the 2026 NFL season.
My name is Adam Levitan,
and we are gathered here today to talk about actual
real life, NFL regular season football,
Patriots at Seahawks Super Bowl rematch,
is tomorrow night, and of course,
tons of action in the DFS showdown streets
for that game.
Joining me today are two of the most dedicated
NFL DFS showdown versions you will ever meet.
Showdown specialist in King of the Size/Mass Streets,
Cody Maine.
How's it going today?
Cody, I can't hear you.
Tech Lord difficulties to kick off the season.
It wouldn't be any two-yard show without that.
It feels good to be back.
It's almost time to put the pencils down.
It's almost time to start the damn games.
I'm feeling good.
Indeed, it's enough already.
We need to start the games like two weeks ago.
It's ridiculous.
Anyways, Lord of the Simbrows from our data side
and NFL teams, Sam Brott has gone today.
- It's going great.
I'm with you guys.
We need to just start the games a long time ago.
Preseason was great, but this low we've had
with extended training camps and everything this year.
September 9th is way too late to get started.
- Yeah, and every player, not every player,
but most of the players who had injury scares out peers
during my love, Ashen Gentie, I could keep going.
Luther Burton, Tyler Warren, Breeze Hall,
all these guys that were quote unquote hurt,
seemed like they're all going to be,
okay, for week one or at least play here in week one.
So yeah, there was so much fun out there.
Hope you guys had a great drafting season.
It is now time, though, to play the greatest game there is.
DFS.
On today's show, we are going to talk all things
Patriots, Seahawks from a DFS showdown perspective.
We'll go position by position.
We'll give a flag plant at the end.
Reminder, most of these shows will be part of our NFL
in-season product through the season.
In other words, not free here on YouTube.
Part of the in-season product, that means our showdown shows
established the show with myself, Sylvan Wiggins,
established a million with Dink and Leoni,
weekly manverse machine, Sylva versus Leoni,
weekly projections, contact show,
survivor show with Cody, tons more.
All of those shows are part of our in-season product,
along with projections, Sylva's matchups,
tons more there.
So head to establishtherun.com
and check out the in-season product.
And if you have draft kit and you want to upgrade to bundle,
shoot a note to
[email protected]
and we'll take care of your upgrade there.
So again, if you have draft kit,
you want to upgrade to bundle,
shoot a note to
[email protected].
All right.
There's some stuff changing here in the NFL
and in the showdown streets here, Cody.
I think a big thing was kicker stuff
and he quick thoughts on changes for this year
that you see that are important for the showdown streets.
I feel really good to go back through the last couple of years
where the data from a couple of different angles,
seeing what the field has been doing,
seeing what draft kings has been doing
from a pricing perspective.
And then to actually look at what's been happening on the field,
we know that there's been rule changes to kickoffs,
we know that there's been rule changes to the k-balls
that the kickers can actually use.
And I think all of those things are really important
to try to analyze.
This is probably the biggest format
where kickers matter the most is DFS and is showdown.
And I think looking through those three angles
kind of helps paint a picture
of what we should be doing with kickers.
I think it's probably one of the biggest changes
the format has had over the last couple of years
since the early days.
And I think from a non-field perspective,
it's really tough to deny that kickers
have become more valuable components to showdown slates.
We can see that in 2025, for example,
they scored 10 plus points, 38.4% of the time
compared to 33.7% of the time in 2021.
They went north of 15 points, 10.3% of the time
in 2025 compared to 7% of the time in 2021.
So you can see the trend of kickers simply getting better.
It's not really a trend.
It's just simply a benefactor of the rule changes
over the last couple of years.
And I think that's important,
but I think the component that gets lost
when watching how well these kickers
are performing on primetime showdown slates
is that they've become more popular.
The field has become aware of these things
and they're more owned in 2025 than they were in 2021.
And B, they've become more expensive.
So it feels natural to kind of gravitate
towards kickers more often than we have in the past
because of how well they're performing on the field.
You kind of have to factor in those other components.
It's something I want to keep an eye on.
This season, both Andy Borgallis and Jason Myers,
who are on this slate tonight are pretty expensive.
Coming up are pretty expensive.
And I expect the field to want to own them.
We'll see where ownership ultimately lands.
But the kicker analysis is up on the site.
I think it's a worthwhile read
as you try to figure out how to handle these guys.
But the general consensus that I came to
after going through this process
was that the way that they project now,
the way that they're performing now,
has kind of been caught up with
by the Draft Kings pricing algorithm
and the rest of the field.
- Yeah, and I think it's really important part
of understanding what's changing in the NFL
and what's changing.
What people are doing also, hopefully you guys
call it our YouTube show about beating DFS tournaments.
We talked a lot about the changing NFL
and what the field is doing
and what is actually winning there as well.
Be sure to check out that video from over.
The weekend brought any high levels showdown thoughts
from you on Sims or anything else heading into this season.
- Yeah, I think the availability of Sims
kind of widespread throughout the industry
has really changed how people have been building lineups
over the past couple of seasons
and we've updated our Sim field lineup projections
or Duke counts in the Sims we have at Solver
to account for that.
I think kind of the big trend that we've seen
over the past couple of years is this gravitation
towards the five one builds, the one five builds
that Cody talks about where people are kind of
onslaughting teams and when they do that
they tend to use the defense, the kicker
and they just kind of play for one team
to kind of dominate the other team.
And the Sims have shown that's a very viable strategy
but it has come to the point where the field has played it
so much that you kind of have to wonder at what point
is that stop being the optimal way to play
but just wanna point out that our Sim product
at the Solver does account for all of that now
even more than it has in the past.
- All right, with that out of the way
let's talk about Patriots at Seahawks.
This is a really interesting game.
Obviously it's a Super Bowl rematch,
the last game that everybody watched.
What Seahawks Patriots, the first game
that Air Bill watched this season is Seahawks Patriots.
Strikes me, Cody, that these are two very, very good defenses
and specifically two very, very good secondaries.
I mean, remember the Super Bowl was 12 nothing Seahawks
after three quarters.
I mean, the offenses could not do anything.
And then in the fourth quarter, we got to pick six
to speed the game up.
There's a garbage time touchdown.
It ends up with a reasonable final score
but after three quarters people were like,
this is the worst Super Bowl I have ever watched
in the history of Super Bowl's 12 nothing again.
So Nicky and Monowari, I think has a chance to play.
I'm not sure if he is going to or not,
but Seahawks do return nine of 11 starters
if you include Monowari in there.
Of course Patriots have Christian Gonzalez
so they just locked up and a very, very good secondary as well.
So I was a little surprised that the total came in here
at 44 and a half.
I see a lot of people wanting to take the under here.
I know Silva is on the under in this game
as well, Cody, any high level thoughts
on this version of Patriot Seahawks.
- Yeah, I mean, it sure does.
Just on the surface feel like one of those games
that could be a stinker of a primetime game
to kick off the season from an offensive scoring perspective.
There are, I mean, there's bullish signals everywhere.
I think for both of these teams,
obviously they were both in the Super Bowl last year.
The Seahawks win the Super Bowl last year.
You can paint pictures of losing Clint Kubiak
being a big deal of not having Zach Sharvenay
and Kenneth Walker having a big impact
on what their offense wants to do.
And then on the other side,
reading through Pat Thorman's pace preview,
there were a lot of positives to take away
from what New England did last year.
Of course, seventh highest pass rate over expectation,
but they were still 17th and snaps for game 28th
in combined plays did not use the no huddle often.
So you get the sense that this game,
and you think that both teams probably
want to play this one pretty slow
and it's going to stay pretty competitive
and has a chance to be pretty low scoring.
But on the other side of that,
you've got off season additions for the Patriots.
You've got second year for Drake May,
who had an MVP caliber season last year
in Josh McDaniel system.
So I think you can also kind of paint the picture
that maybe this one has a little bit more back and forth,
chewed out potential to it,
which I don't think the field is going to be playing for,
which kind of makes for an interesting angle
for those of us that like to root for offense.
Yeah, I mean, Patriots got better, I think.
They added AJ Brown.
They added Romeo Dobbs.
I think offensive line is improved there as well.
And it's year two, Rabel, I'm so impressed by Rabel
like every time. So you know, year two, Rabel,
I think makes a difference.
I think the Patriots are better.
You could argue that the Seahawks are worse.
You know, they did lose a couple of pieces
on defense even though they returned nine of 11 starters
and they lose Kling Kubiak here as well.
You see this is an important table
that we have here in the showdown breakdown article.
This is how often we project users to do
one Seahawk versus five Patriots
[BLANK_AUDIO]
in five Patriots in your lineup, just 2.1% of the time.
The other way, five Seahawks, one Patriot 9.4%,
this will be updated closer to game time here,
but yeah, brought any general thoughts on the game
and what we're showing here in terms of these splits.
- Yeah, I mean, I'm also thinking that the game
probably leans towards the under here.
Like I'm not betting sides or totals or anything like that,
but you know, you just think about the environment here
and it's hard to imagine it getting into a shootout
the way I'm seeing the game.
And I do think that that's going to lead the field
to really want to play running backs,
to really want to play defenses,
and especially correlate their running backs
and defenses together.
So I could see situations where a lot of the field
ends up playing for these kind of like low scoring games.
And you know, I do think that it's gonna go that way too,
but that gives us an opportunity to either play
those kind of lineups in unique ways
or to just kind of play for the shootout
and play for a more interesting game to take place here.
But I do think that the Kubiac loss
and the new offensive coordinator coming in, you know,
it does present this really interesting angle here
and it's something that I like to write about
for the classics late week one GPP leverage
where you know, the biggest unknowns will have all season
are week one.
Like we could have a situation where Kubiac is a big loss
and he was so great for them last year
that we all think that, you know,
it's probably a loss, but what if it gets better?
Like it can get better.
There is potential there and there's also no tape
for the Patriots of study of how this new offensive coordinator
is going to operate within the Seattle offense.
So, you know, they could get caught off guard with some stuff
and who knows, maybe the Seahawks come out
and surprise everybody.
So I think it's a great time in week one
to just go against what you think is going to happen
and just take contrarian angles and contrarian builds
and try and get leverage against the field here.
- Yep, and we'll talk about some of those
as we go through here.
Let's start at the quarterback position
where you get Drake Mayne, one of the toughest spots
that he will find all season here, Cody.
And so playing quarterback and showdown at these prices,
I think is typically pretty strong.
Again, this will be the toughest spot.
Maybe that Drake Mayne has all season,
12% captain ownership here, Cody.
Let's start in the Drake Mayne side.
What do you think about him?
- Yeah, quarterbacks are really cheap
and I think that's probably the biggest takeaway
from the slate in general is that the slate
is just very loosely priced.
You're going to be able to build lineups that you feel.
You should feel good about using 46, 47, $48,000,
worth of the $50,000 salary cap on draft kings.
Part of that big reason behind that is Drake Mayne's price tag
and Sam Darnell who will talk about the second.
These guys are probably $1,200 to $1,600 cheaper
than maybe they should be or they were last season.
And I think for May specifically,
obviously this is going to be a very difficult matchup,
three and a half point, road underdog against
a very good Seattle defense.
He, I mean, during his season last year was kind of a model
of fantasy consistency, had 10 separate outings
north of 20 draft kings points, was in the double digits
on every single game.
I think from a, you know, if you're thinking small field GPP,
if you're thinking cash game style contest,
it's tough to find anybody that has a better floor
than Drake Mayne.
That doesn't discount the ceiling either.
You got a 6% design rush rate last year, 10% scramble rate
last year.
We already mentioned the improvements for the offensive line,
adds AJ Brown, adds Romeo Dobs.
I think there's, there's reasons to be reasonably bullish
about Drake Mayne's full season outlook
and specifically here in week one,
even against a very good Seattle defense.
I'm pretty in on May at Flex.
I think we're gonna be able to find better captain options.
And I think sometimes these, these quarterbacks
that do offer some dual thread upside end up being
a little bit over-owned at Captain both in large
and small field tournament.
So I'm more interested in finding some of these running backs
wide receivers that I think just have
a little bit more raw upside than Drake Mayne might.
But I think probably the best at current ownership,
the best flex play in small and large field tournaments
right now.
Yeah, I agree.
It's just too cheap for a player who could be,
you know, he's, well, should be a top five fantasy quarterback.
This season, if not top three or better.
But we see here in our ceiling projections
that we actually have Drake May fourth on this slate
in terms of ceiling behind JSN, Ramon Dre,
and AJ Brown.
One thing about the Drake May play brought is,
I mean, I know Diggs was good last year.
He only played 57% of the snaps.
He only worked really close to the line of scrimmage.
Getting AJ Brown and Romeo Dobs is such a big upgrade
because now they can play pop Douglas and Mac Hans
and Kyle Williams and secondary roles instead of primary roles.
So if AJ Brown goes out there and last year,
he was like, ah, I was just doggin' it.
The Jalen Hurts Stinks, Petulo Stinks.
Now AJ Brown goes out there and balls out.
I think that's how you find the real ceiling on Drake Mayne.
I have another take for Drake May past catcher,
but I think playing Drake Mayne with AJ Brown
and that being the angle like, hey, AJ Brown is such a big upgrade.
He's such a good player.
That's how you find the ceiling.
But Brad, any more thoughts on Handling Drake Mayne tonight?
- Yeah, I'm totally with you on the upgrades here for Drake Mayne.
And I was kind of completely out on AJ Brown
at his cost for Best Ball and Redraft purposes.
But then you get him in this kind of situation here.
And I think it's an awesome play here on a showdown slate.
Just because everybody is going to be taking this idea
that Seattle's defense kind of dominated them
and the Super Bowl and now they're at home
in their own stadium and they're the 3.5 point favorites.
So Drake Mayne struggled in the Super Bowl.
He's going to struggle here.
But I think AJ Brown really is such a big upgrade over Steph Diggs.
And to your point about Steph Diggs,
he didn't play all that high of a percentage of the routes
or snaps last year.
And that kind of created a situation last year
where Drake Mayne did end up being owned quite a bit at Captain
when he was on the showdown slates
because people didn't really feel comfortable
making any of the Patriots receivers a Captain.
But I do think that here it might protect Drake Mayne's
Captain ownership just a little bit
because there is like this clear alpha now
that you could just put AJ Brown in the Captain's spot.
And he saves you a little bit of salary off Drake Mayne too.
So that could kind of cap Drake Mayne's Captain ownership.
But I do think that when Drake Mayne is the Captain,
it's going to kind of lead to some chalky combinations
of like it's going to be AJ Brown and Dodds or AJ Brown
and Hunter Henry when Drake Mayne is Captain.
So I think one thing that you could do
is just play Drake Mayne Captain or Drake Mayne
skinny without AJ Brown and say, okay,
if Drake Mayne's going to be the optimal Captain,
he's going to get a rushing touchdown or two.
He's going to have a big rushing day.
So I think that's the way I would want to play Drake Mayne
if I were to play him and Captain.
- Yeah, the only thing about AJ Brownne, I would say,
I do expect him to see a lot of Devon Witherspoon
who I believe was PFF's number one graded cornerback last season.
So like this is no bargain whatsoever
for the May AJ Brown stack.
I just think that's the way he finds a true ceiling
is with some outrageous plays by AJ Brownne.
On the other side with Sam Darnold Cody,
it's like only $600 less like the gap between Sam Darnold too.
I believe we had as like quarterback 25 or something
in the fantasy rankings to Drake Mayne
who I believe we had like QB4, QB5.
It's only be $600 difference here is striking
but then again, we only have them 2.1 points apart
and base projection and two points apart in ceiling.
So Cody, what do you think about handling Sam Darnold here
at 9400?
- Yeah, I think there's a few things working in Sam Darnold's
favor, obviously he's a quarterback.
Quarterbacks are very valuable in showdown formats
where it's positionless.
You don't have to worry about rostering a single position
across the board.
So you have that working in his favor.
He is a 3 1/2 point home favorite.
You have some at least uncertainty
with what the offense is going to look like
from a pass run split perspective
with with Clint Cubiac gone with Kenneth Walker and Zach
Sharvenay not playing.
Maybe they go a little bit pass heavy here
though I don't think that's what we're necessarily projecting.
And then Darnold himself.
I mean, you're gonna hear this about almost every player
but Darnold's a little bit too cheap as well
at 9400 last season.
His showdown price point was 10/4 on average.
And at 10/4 he averaged 46 1/2% total ownership,
5.6% captain ownership.
So he's cheap here.
Then you kind of, you know, we're gonna get to JSN
in a second here and some of these other guys.
JSN is only 10/6.
JSN is equally underpriced in this spot as well.
So you can't spend up for everybody.
You're gonna be able to spend up for quite a few options
on this slate.
But I think when you start thinking about
making cuts towards the top of the board,
do you want a JSN at 10/6 or do you want Darnold at 9/4?
That's where you start to get into some of those discussions.
I still think Darnold's a phenomenal cash game option
given the safety that's provided
by the quarterback position on every slate.
But when I'm starting to think about tournaments,
I'm a little bit more interested
in some of the upside of the past catchers running backs
and obviously Drake May,
who are priced directly around Sam Darnold.
- Yeah, I mean, if I was playing cash,
I would have both quarterbacks on my team in Flax,
at a minimum, you know?
So yeah, I mean, I think just like too cheap here.
Floor is too high.
Let's go to running back here, Brott.
This is the story of the slate.
I'm just gonna start by New England for a second here.
Seems like Trivia and Henderson
is almost certainly out for this game.
That's not official yet.
but seems to be very, very, very much trending that way.
that way has not practiced since I believe it was August 24th.
What that is going to lead to is an outrageous usage projection for Ramondra Stevenson.
Look at the names that they have behind Ramondra Stevenson for this game.
I know Silva put an update in his match-up saying that he thinks Ramondra could handle 100
percent of the Patriots running back touches in this game.
I don't think it's going to be like that, but I could see 85, 90 percent of the running
back touches in this game going to Ramondra Stevenson.
This is not sneaking by anyone though, Brad, we keep pumping up the ownership on Ramondra
up to 58 percent.
Now, to me, this is one of the biggest stories on the slate, how to handle Ramondra, what
do you think, Brad?
Yeah, this is a really an unfortunate situation where the pricing came out on DraftKings quite
a while ago when there was no indication that Trevian Henderson might miss this game.
It was going to be a great spot to play Ramondra.
I think I have been really into Ramondra throughout the off season and would have loved
to play him here while a bunch of people were still playing Trevian, but I do agree with
Silva.
I do think that Ramondra will get 100 percent of the running back touches for the Patriots
unless it turns into a blowout in either direction, whether they're up by a lot, they can
get these other guys mixed in or they're losing by a lot and they just want to get Ramondra
some rest for next week. I don't think they're going to turn to these other guys while the
game is close at all.
I'm really interested to hear Cody's thoughts on Kiner, on Haskins.
These are guys that we all played in the preseason.
Kiner is actually good in the preseason, but I don't think the Patriots want to go to
them.
They haven't really played with the full team very much and I'm kind of surprised.
I'm also like you said earlier, Adam, I've been really impressed with Rabel as I had coached
but they seem very under-prepared here for potential injury and they kind of shot themselves
in the foot with a lack of depth here.
I'm sure I'll play plenty of Ramondra, but you've got to be really careful about how you
play him.
He's very under-priced, so one easy thing to do is just play him when you're leaving
salary on the table for 10 that he's priced correctly at like 10K or make sure you get
some contrarian pieces or contrarian game scripts around him that you're telling a story
with in your lineup because it's going to be easy to run into doops with Ramondra, the
slate, whether it's at Flex or at Captain.
Yeah, so Cody, for anyone who's wondering what's on the screen here, this is the solver.
If you have ETR in season and then you add on the solver optimizer, our projections
will sink to your optimizer.
Basically, here's the optimizer here, all I did was ask for 10 lineups optimized by projection,
you can also optimize by ceiling or 50% or projected ownership or floor however you want
to optimize by.
This is by our straight projections, Ramondra, and this is just our top 10 optimals.
Ramondra is our optimal captain in nine out of those top 10, so I'm worried that we're
even like light ownership on Ramondra, but again, the story of the slate here, Cody, how
do we handle Ramondra?
There's not going to be a player with a bigger gap between high stakes, sharper contests and
slower stakes, cat more casual contests than Ramondra, something like the 333 or 444 or
even higher stake stuff.
Ramondra is going to be in virtually every lineup in those contests and going to be even
higher on to Captain.
I think, and maybe this is just wish casting, I think there's a couple of things that
could potentially keep just the larger field lotto style stuff in check a little bit.
First of all, he's going to project for massive ownership regardless.
You can see some leveling off of that.
I can't play Ramondra at 60% or 15% or 20% captain, I've got to play somebody else to
get different.
Then you have the fact that Seattle has run defenses, phenomenal, and you have the fact
that there are three and a half point road dog.
You have the fact that the fantasy mass is just clearly do not like Ramondra, Stevenson.
I think that was pretty evident based off of how little his best ball ADP moved this
off season.
I think there are some things that could potentially keep Ramondra's ownership in check, but it
is a serious problem on the slate given where he was initially priced.
I wrote in the breakdown that I think Ramondra probably would have found his way into the top
overall play section, even if Travion Henderson was active, just given how they used him down
the stretch last season.
I think to Silva and Brott's point about how much is he truly going to be used.
I don't know if it matters if it's 85% or 100%, but to those points, the backfield situation
behind Travion is truly a travesty.
They had an R.B. 3 battle that they let play out through the entire preseason between
Jam Miller, Lann Larison, Jamaica Hasty, and Hassan Haskins, and we're apparently so
unimpressed by those guys that they traded for Corey Keiner who was the Cardinals R.B. 4
or 5 at the time on August 28.
You've got a guy in here who is presumably R.B. 3.
The only other running back on the 53 man roster right now of Travion is out and you just
traded for him 10 days ago or so.
Regardless of who ultimately ends up being active whether it's Lann Larison or Hassan
Haskins, and I know Hassan Haskins has had some familiarity with Ravel before from their
time in Tennessee.
It just would stun me if they were using those guys to any meaningful degree, which makes
them less interesting and it just further proves the point that Ramondra is the most underpriced
player on this slate.
Yeah.
I'm curious, Brott, from a contrarium perspective, I brought up the optimals if we fade
Ramondra completely, no captain and no flex and you get different stuff.
Obviously, you get a lot of Drake May and JSN in captain, but what kind of teams do you
think, Brott, if you wanted to go for a Ramondra fade?
What kind of teams do you think make the most sense?
Yeah.
I think sometimes with a lead back like this, it's easy to kind of project, okay.
If I want to fade this player, what does the game look like?
If we're looking at the extreme, somebody like Derek Henry, okay, if he's not going to
be having a good game, you could just say, okay, his offense isn't playing well.
He's not getting touchdowns, so you could just play the opposing defense and play for
blowout, but it's tough with Ramondra because he's probably going to be the past catching
back throughout the entire game, too.
If you do believe that he'll be playing 100% of snaps are close to it.
So then it's like, he kind of works in a blowout script, too, if he's just catching checkdowns
and they're in a lot of hurry up spots.
So it's really tough with Ramondra.
I think a couple of ways you could do it is one.
You could just imagine that the New England offense can't move the ball at all.
They can't get first downs.
So they're just not on the field for Ramondra to be able to have success.
And then I think another way to do it is there is a situation where Patriots are able
to score, but maybe they score two or three touchdowns through the air, they get a field
goal or two, and maybe Ramondra has like a solid 12 point game, but it's just not needed
at his salary and you need the passing game and the kicker or something like that.
So I think it's easy to like tell ourselves certain narratives of like how a game's going
to play out and then assume that, okay, how does Ramondra not get there, but he could
just not get there because other players score more.
Like that is a completely valid point, too.
So I don't think it's a certain game script that you need to go down to feed Ramondra.
Yeah.
And like Ramondra scored a caught in the Super Bowl.
I mean, he was like dead.
You know, he had seven carries for 23 yards.
Shave down Henderson had six carries for 19 yards.
I mean, they could not run the ball whatsoever Ramondra saved his day by catching a touchdown
there in garbage times.
So yeah, I mean, he could just fail here, period, brought up.
I just simmed just as an example of the top 10 lines without Ramondra, just to be clear
for people like this is not the type of distribution that we're looking for.
We're making good line us, but anything you want to note here brought for people that
are interested or using the sims here for showdown.
Yeah, I would definitely sim many different combinations of lineups.
You know, Adam's doing 10 here just for demonstration purposes, but you know, you do see that these
Drake May captain lineups, the sims aren't really liking.
So maybe they do prefer the route of, you know, more Seattle heavy and New England's
either more concentrated or they just fail entirely.
But again, I would try many, many different combinations.
Take a look at the sim ROI, take a look at the cash rate, take a look at the top 1% rate.
Don't just go solely off ROI because, you know, you need to kind of factor in more than
just how often it gets first place and that's sometimes what the sims are pointing to, but
Cody did a really great breakdown on the site, kind of a two part series that highly recommend
for everybody.
All right.
Let's go to Seattle running back, which is also a very interesting spot.
You know, we've struggled a bit to get this exactly the way that we want it or the way
that we feel really good about because there has been a lot of speculation about what
the split will be between Giderian price, George Halani and Emmanuel Wilson.
My take was that throughout the off season was that Halani would play the clear passing
downs and a little bit more.
Not as much as Sharbon A played, but clear passing downs, probably two minute drill.
Then we got this report, I don't want to call it a report, like a take last week, leave
us from Brady Henderson who covers the COX for ESPN.
He suggested that Halani could be getting goal line work.
That did not make a lot of sense.
sense to me. I don't know if he's just like porting over the Zack Sharbin A roll because
Zack Sharbin A did get a lot of goal line work. Last year, and I agree, Halani generally
will be in the Sharbin A roll, but I it would shock me if the coaches actually thought Halani
was a better option at the goal line than price. And then you also have a manual Wilson
who's the biggest of the three backs and was a short yardage kind of guy Ingrid Bay.
They signed him to a very cheap contract. He makes the team as a third back here. Did
have a hamstring injury for a lot of camps. We do not have a manual Wilson playing very
much. Maybe he's a threat at the goal line. I tend to doubt it. I just think Jadarian
price is good. If you watched hard knocks, the coaches were already loving him from like
the first day of training camp. And when the chips are down, like you're going to play
the best players. Now I said that a lot about Kenneth Walker should be playing more ahead
of Zack Sharbin A coaches did not agree. But man, I'm not sure that Halani is the same player
that Sharbin A is. So it's really hard. I like price. Maybe a hair more than our projection
here. But there is some error bands on the projection here for Seattle backfield. Cody,
how are you thinking about playing this one? Yeah, it's such a such a tough spot because
I think they're priced at a point where both price and or George Halani could be valuable
options. You could see a situation where both find their way into winning lineups. I would
not hesitate to play them together. You could also get into a spot where one of them looks
totally dead and the other one looks even better than we have projected. And I think playing
into a little bit of that uncertainty is the way that I plan on handling it. It's going
to depend ultimately where we're final ownership projections land. But I'm kind of with you
on the price stuff and that like you just expect a first round draft pick, first round
talent to win out. Maybe that doesn't immediately happen in week one. But you have a first round
pick who is in one of the league's most efficient offenses in one of the league's run heaviest
offenses at 7,200. And because of all the uncertainty that we're accounting for is not going
to catch a ton of ownership. And you also kind of have the fact that this slate is so loosely
priced that like if if you even view price as a value, the $7,200 tag just isn't necessary
because you can get up to remondry. You can easily get up to Drake May. You can get
up to JSN. So I think that you get the situation where price maybe slips through the cracks because
of all the all season uncertainty. And that's kind of the the uncertainty that I want
to plan to. So I'm pretty into price. I don't think that necessarily means I'm out on
George Lani either. I think that that both are just at a salary point where I'm kind of
interested in playing both of them. Well, price is in seven of our top 10 optimals here,
brought, you know, and they're all in flex. But it just shows how cheap price is relative
to a starting running back role in that Super Bowl game. I mean, Kenneth Walker shredded
the Patriots. He averaged five yards of carry had some really big runs thoughts on handling
price in a Hualani here, brought. I also have a lot of interest in both of these guys.
I do think that like you said, with our optimals, Adam price is going to make it into a lot of
lineups. Hualani is going to make it into a lot of lineups just because on a base projection
per dollar value, they're they're both on their price and they fit kind of all the different
builds. I have a lot of interest in playing both of these guys at Captain where going back
to the point I made earlier week one is the least amount of information we're going to have
all season. We have an idea of how this split might go, but it could be something completely
different that we're not anticipating. So I like the idea of playing these guys in Captain
without the other ones so that if one of them plays a lot more than we're anticipating
or just runs hot and gets the touchdowns whether that's, you know, Hualani gets to go line
touchdowns and that's a low scoring game or Jadarian price is able to break a long one
or two and maybe he even gets the goal line role that we're not anticipating right now.
Whatever the case is, their ceilings I think are much higher than their base projections
indicate they would be just because there is ability for work to consolidate more than
we're expecting here. And again, by week two, everybody's going to have an idea of like,
okay, this is how it's going, but it's week one and we don't really know until we see
it. So I think they're both great leverage plays at Captain. Yeah. And I mean, you know,
we have price right now for 8% projected ownership in the Captain spot. You know, if you
just say who is good, I feel like so many times and I'm guilty of it too, we get into
this spot of it's prescripted. Oh, you know, the coaches know that they're going to do
this and this. What if Jadarian price is just so much better than Halani? And that's
like the base case. He's just could just be so, so, so much better. I'm interested in
your take on this Cody. What do you think about playing both Halani and price in the
same lineup? Yeah, we're going to talk about this a lot this year. I feel like there's
going to be situations where running backs are just priced at a point, running backs on
the same teams are priced at a point where you don't have to have that same level of
concern. If one provides a slate winning type score, then that automatically means the other
one in the back field cannot provide a slate winning type score. I don't think that that's
the case here for price in Halani at all. If it's 60 40 split on base downs, Halani gets
a little bit more work as a pass catcher and they split touchdowns or Halani gets the
touchdowns and Jadarian price just racks up more volume. There's certainly outcomes where
both of them can find their way into winning lineups together. I think it's more of a problem
when the prices are a little bit prohibitive and it's more of a problem when you're considering
what to do specifically in those instances at Captain. If Jadarian price was more expensive
and he provides a slate winning score at Captain, that almost certainly doesn't certainly
mean, but it's it's much more likely that George Lani just didn't get enough volume or
have enough opportunities to score enough points to find his way into winning lineups
at Flex. I think I think there's a really good chance that both of these guys could end
up in winning lineups together for sure. And like to be clear, what we're trying to do
and show down, especially if you're playing large field stuff is find tail outcomes that
the field is not playing enough because like you're going to need a tail outcome to win
this and not be duped a million times. Small field is different, but if you're playing
the lotto and stuff like what you're looking for is weird stuff and maybe weird stuff is
something like price and Halani together here tonight. Okay. Sorry, Wednesday night.
Let's go to wide receiver here. Brought will start with the Seattle side where of course
Jacen is coming off just an outrageous season in which he had 50% of the targets in
multiple games, 40% of the targets in a ton of games ended up with over a 30% target
share just absolutely unheard of stuff. The entire offense flowed through him. They did
talk somewhat this off season about, hey, we need to get more out of a sheet. We need
to have other guys do it more. They also lose clean kubiac, which I think matters for JSN.
Also, Christian Gonzalez did an incredible job on JSN in the Super Bowl. JSN had four
catches for 27 yards in the Super Bowl on 10 targets. So, Brought, what do you think
about JSN here in this spot at 10/6? Yeah, there's so much buzz on Christian Gonzalez
especially after he got that big contract too that I do think that at least people handbuilding
lineups in the single entry stuff and that kind of tournaments. I do think JSN could
squeeze a little bit at Captain. I don't think people are super excited to play him. I think
everybody scared of Christian Gonzalez. I think people saw what happened in Super Bowl.
You could write off some of what happened in Super Bowl too. JSN was hurt in that game
as well. Regardless, I think the narrative out there is just that JSN could get shut down
here or even if he's not shut down, the Seahawks might just look in other directions. So,
I think it creates this situation in hand builds where people aren't going to really want
to play him in Captain and that's going to limit how much Sam Darnold has played. That's
going to maybe limit even how much the other wide receivers are played in kind of a weird
way because they're just going to stay away from the Seattle passing game in general. It
creates a weird ownership dynamic for the small field single entry stuff where I do think
that we could see kind of wider discrepancies than normal of the ownership in those contests
versus the millymaker type contest which is what Cody's doing these projected ownerships
for. I would definitely be consider of that when you are building your small field lineups
and your single entry lineup that if you like JSN like go for it, play him and Captain
because I think he has some protection here with the Gonzo narrative out there.
Yeah, and I don't love JSN in this spot but there just aren't that many players on the
slate that can actually get you 30 or 35 points. And so, from that perspective, I'm still
interested but I do not think this is a great spot for JSN. I will note Tori Horton, I believe,
is still questionable. We do not have him in right now. Cooper CUP led this receiving room
in targets in the cerebral Cody with 12. This has been a controversial thing all off season.
For a while, we had Cooper CUP at like 170, 180 in the best ball ranks and you would have thought
that we like murdered someone's mother. How could you have Cooper CUP at 180th overall in the
best ball ranks? I mean, I don't disagree that he's washed. There's not much of his ceiling
but he did have 12 targets and way that you beat these really good corners is by working
over the middle, you know, tight ends, slot guys and stuff like that. So Cody, any thoughts on CUP,
JSN or any other Seattle White receiver thoughts? Yeah, I wanted to note on JSN specifically,
the the ownerships that we have for for large field of sand pointed out and they have been
manually adjusted at this point already. They'll be adjusted again before lock Wednesday night
but they are kind of accounting for some of the stuff.
stuff that Sam talks about with Christian Gonzales, shadow treatment, and everything else could
be acting gone. It comes down to a price thing, though. I just think that we're ultimately
going to see a ton of the field pile into him at 10-6. He's $1,200 under price, just like
a lot of the rest of these guys are, and has the highest ceiling on the slate. So I think
ultimately, it can be a ton of projection and symbros that find their way there, but I
do think that, as Sam pointed out, the hand-built stuff could ultimately keep his ownership
in check. I hate to do this things. I feel like I do this on every showdown show, but the
Rashid Shaheed stuff, the high-aid low-volume type receivers are the ones that they could
get there on just a couple of catches. Those are the types of outcomes that we're looking
for to get that ceiling that we're looking for at both Flex and Captain at this price point.
When we've already talked about it a bunch, I think it's going to be a stars and scrubs
heavy as possible. You're going to get as many people that play JSN and Drake May and
Remindry Stevenson and AJ Brown, and then you're going to funnel further down the leader
board into some of the four in three K-type options that are available. Halani's one
of them. There's some receivers that we'll talk about in a second that also fit that
build, but I think Shaheed is the one that, to me, feels like he could get lost in the
sauce, and there's so much uncertainty around what his role is going to look like this
season. If we're looking for an opportunity to take advantage of that uncertainty, feels
like week one's a pretty good chance to do it. Got paid this off season, cups another
year older, there's all this off season smoke about the role expanding and improved chemistry
with Sam Tharnold. It didn't look pretty for Shaheed last year, but I'm kind of willing
to bet on that turning around with another off season under his belt with the Seahawks.
I feel like the ownership now is appropriate. I do worry that these types, these kind of
wide receiver archetypes like Shaheed, we'll talk about dobs too on the other side. They
just tend to get a little bit more captain ownership than maybe they should because the field,
like me, is trying to play for some of those tail outcomes. If it stays in the four, four
and a half, five percent range on Shaheed, I'm pretty interested. If I get the sense that
it's going to seem higher than I'm willing to check out there.
I mean, if you want somebody who has the best matchups, it's Shaheed and Cup, much more
than JSN. She'd got to the team mid season last year. I thought that they would integrate
him more into the offense quicker. They did not. They had an entire off season now to do.
With a new coordinator, I buy that they're going to integrate him more. Doesn't mean that
it'll all happen early, but I do buy that they'll integrate him more. The other thing that
you get when you play Shaheed is I expect him to be continued to be their punt and kick
returner. If you play him with Seattle defense, the patented double dip, you could get six
points from Shaheed for scoring a punt return touchdown and six points for Seahawks defense.
He scores a punt or kick return touchdown there. I mean, I cup at 5200. I feel better
about his target projection than Shaheed at 6400. I think it'll be close, but you do
save the 1200 there with Cup if that matters.
We'll get to tight end here. I'm sorry. Oh, we need to do New England. I almost forgot.
Our precious new Patriots wide out core. We already mentioned the AJ Brown stuff a while
at the top. Going to see a bunch of Devon Witherspoon, who was PFF's number one corner
last year. The base three wide series set for the Patriots will be brown and dobs. Pop
Douglas comes on in three wider sets for the slot. I do want to be clear, though. The Patriots
will rotate. I mean, Matt Collins is going to play. He's like their favorite blocker. Kyle Williams,
did he make the preseason first team all preseason team Kyle Williams was absolutely unreal.
This preseason for the Patriots. I think he deserves to get some snaps also. So I think
AJ Brown is going to play a ton. Beyond that, I expect to see somewhat of a rotation and that
includes Romeo Dobs. I like dobs, but I do think they like Matt Collins and pop Douglas
here as well. So Cody, how are you thinking about playing Patriots wide receiver?
Dobs fits the same mold, I think, as Shaheed of that price point stuff. Not the exact same
archetype, but the same type of price point where he just doesn't really fit neatly into the
slate. The projection and price value, price adjusted value is pretty similar on him. So I think
you get into the same situation where in small field stuff, specifically, you're going to see
total ownership and maybe captain ownership squeeze just a little bit on Romeo Dobs.
I think AJ Brown is among the slate's best captain options as well. If you can just kind of
port over some of the stuff that he was doing in Philadelphia last year, and when it was kind
of a roller coaster season for him, he could have had a chance to kind of consolidate targets
here in New England as well and kind of be that alpha wide receiver one that Drake May has been
looking for. I think pop Douglas is really interesting. I hate to like put too much into the preseason
stuff, but it felt like a really bullish preseason from him and that the training camp stuff
felt really good. And the fact that he just didn't play in the preseason was a really bullish
signal. The Patriots didn't play any of their starters in any of the three preseason games,
and they felt good enough to ship away, Keishan Booty. Mac Holland's played in the preseason.
As you mentioned, Kyle Williams was like a focal point of what they were doing in the preseason,
was just an absolute monster as they were trying to get him going in those exhibition games as well.
So it felt like a pretty good signal that pop Douglas has a secure enough role in this offense
that he was not out there at all. As you pointed out, I think being out there in three wide
receiver sets consistently is a strong signal that 3K makes sense as a really strong value option.
The thing and reason why he's not coming with any ownership is you just don't need that 3K value
all that often. So I think he ends up getting a little bit underplayed. And if you just
play for him, Sam kind of pointed out with a Mondrake, if you just play for him to be appropriately
priced and outscore the guys that are priced directly above him, you can get lineups that
would look very similar to others that just leave salary on the table by playing DiMario Douglas.
I like him as well. I wanted to be in on Kyle Williams. 2600 just isn't free and you have this
situation where because of the way the slate is priced, he's actually going to have to do something
to find his way into winning lineups. So if you know catches a bomb for 60 yards and it touched
down, obviously that's going to be plenty. I think at 2600, but I just have doubts that there's
going to be enough volume for him to pay off that price tag at 2600. So I'll wait and see on Kyle
Williams see if he gets cheaper throughout the showdown season where I can take chances on him.
But the offseason narrative around him was obviously pretty bullish too and they want to get
him going on some of those deep shots and use his speed if they can. I know. I want, I like,
I'm not going to play the lotto, but I'd be hard pressed not to click Kyle Williams in the lotto
just because I'm like, you know, if you're hashed that team preseason Cody, how could you not
call Kyle Williams in a lotto? I mean, he might only run 10 routes in this game. He might run 8 routes
in this game. It's certainly possible. And obviously 2600 is way too much for 8 routes or 10 routes.
But man, it's at least a fun click. And I did click in some of my final best ball jabs. I did
take some round 20 Kyle Williams there in the last round as a guy who will be unowned brought
anything to add on Patriots wider sea before we get to tight end. I'm with Cody on pop Douglas.
I do think he's a pretty strong floor play probably better for small field where you maybe don't
need the pure nuts. But he should provide you with a decent floor and a little bit of upside.
I think Kyle Williams is a really tough click here, especially if he gets any kind of
ownership at all. Like, I know we have half a percent, but even if he came in like 2%
owns, I wouldn't feel great about the click there. I think like the most likely outcome for him
in my eyes is he gets one deep shot and he either connects on it or he doesn't. And it's just a very
binary outcome. And even if he does connect, let's say he gets a 40 yard touchdown, that's 11 points
on giraffe kings. There are situations where there's that's just not enough to even make the
winning lineup on this slate because the pricing is so loose elsewhere that if there's just other
players who all score 15 or more, you're not going to need that salary savings for Kyle Williams.
So I do like him in general. I was excited about the preseason you should usage. I just don't
really like him in the context of the slate. And I'll echo what Cody said on Dobs 2. I think if
you're playing Smallfield and you want to play passing games, like mixing in two of Dobs Cup
and Shaheed is a really sharp way to go, where it's highly likely at least one of those three
squeezes if not all three of them once you're in Smallfield. So I think it's especially a short
to play like two of them together. And you know, just hope that those are the guys you need because
they're going to get squeezed in Smallfield. Yes. Yeah, agreed. One of them is definitely, I mean,
for sure. One of them is going to squeeze there. All right. Need to get to tight end before we do,
need to remind everyone today's show is brought to you by Polymarket, one of the world's largest
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All right, tight end.
So I wanna start with New England,
'cause this is really interesting.
If you go up here, if you have the in-season product
and you go up here to defense versus position,
and this is the 2025 numbers, again,
this is looking backwards more than looking forwards.
You see here that the Seahawks actually gave up
more than expectation, fantasy points than expectation,
to tight end, and that is adjusted for who they face.
That every other position, the Seahawks defense
was dominant, except against tight ends.
And you see this with a lot of teams
that have really good corner play
and play the style of defense that the Seahawks do.
You see them give up a lot of stuff to tight ends.
Eli Raredin did make some noise in the pre-season,
but I think now that chips are down here, Cody,
it's gonna be a lot of hunter Henry.
So just from a straight matchup perspective,
I can make a case that Hunter Henry
has one of the best matchups in this game.
Any other thoughts on tight ends on the New England side?
- Yeah, I think Henry's gonna end up being really popular.
Now, obviously there's a lot of stuff
that we have to account for that happened
in the Patriots' offseason that could impact
how he's used this year.
Obviously the addition of AJ Brown and Romeo Dubs
could have an impact.
Maybe Eli Raredin steals a little bit of his work,
though I think the expectation would be
for him just to be out there and multi-tighten sets
and Henry's already on the field.
The last year, Henry was nearly $2,000 more expensive
than he's priced here in week ones.
We talk about all these guys that feel a little bit underpriced.
Henry, despite everything that has changed around him,
also feels really underpriced.
And last year at 6,800, at a $6,800 average salary price point,
he carried 36% ownership, 5.5% captain ownership.
I just like a safety blanket that the field seemed to like
to roster pretty frequently last year.
So I think if anything,
you're probably under projecting both total
and captain ownership right now.
And then you also add in the fact that he's cheaper
than both kickers.
He's priced kind of right around the defenses.
I think people would just rather roster
Hunter Henry, given the matchup,
given the volume that he saw last year.
So he does make for a really safe click.
I think if you're thinking cash games,
there are safer options that don't have the floor concerns
that somebody like Hunter Henry does.
But he's certainly in the mix at 4,800
makes for a really strong play.
And it's tough to poke any or many holes
in his outlook on Wednesday night.
- Yeah, certainly really cheap price there on Hunter Henry.
And you know, always good bet to score a touchdown
or at least be in the mix for a touchdown here
as well around the red zone where they like to look for him.
So yeah, just for a matchup respect,
I thought that one was really strong.
On the other side, we get AJ Barner
with a similar projection and price point here, brought.
I do think Elijah Royo like can play.
I do think he's like a legit pass catcher.
I'm not sure exactly what his role is going to be.
We saw Barner have some nice games.
I would say relative to what I thought he could do
as a receiver last season, brought any thoughts
on handling Barner versus Hunter Henry,
anything else like that.
- Yeah, Hunter Henry is probably the leading candidate
to kind of get the most steam when it comes
to a small field hand built lineups.
He just fits everything like you guys talked about.
So I'd be careful with that, don't think that
these ownerships are going to hold
in the really small field stuff
that you might be playing single entry for.
Barner is kind of interesting here
where I feel like people were into him for a while last season
but kind of trailed off and he got a little bit of steam
for a little bit in the best ball market
but that kind of trailed off and didn't really come up.
So I don't know how excited people
are going to be to go to Barner.
I kind of have some interest in Arroyo,
especially if we keep on having this situation
where only projecting JSN cup and Shakyid at wide receiver.
I do think that Arroyo could just play out wide
or not in line the whole time,
whether it's in the slot or actually out wide.
So I don't think he's going to get much volume,
maybe gets a target or two.
But I do think that he's just like an interesting
alternative punt play that could catch a touchdown,
could get one splash play for 30 yards.
Like he is a really fast athletic dude
and not really your traditional tight end.
- Yeah, and you know, if Horton is out for this game,
more wide receiver S routes at the bottom of the depth chart
may be available just a few extra for Arroyo
might make a difference.
And I do think he's more of a, you know,
turns Ferguson, Eli Stowers,
Michael Sikki type than, you know, an inline
Ajay Barnor Hunter Henry type.
All right, let's do kickers and defense together here.
Cody, we already talked a bunch about the kicker stuff
at the top.
I do think defense is going to be somewhat popular here today,
just on Wednesday, just on people think the game
is going to be go under the total.
So they think they're speaking stuff by people by playing
the defense, but yeah, Cody thought specific to kicker
and defense on this slate.
- Oh, sorry, Marcus brought this up earlier.
Yes, we are breaking this into projection.
We do have Ajay Barnor with a little bit of push push
equity here, a hair of it.
We have seen them do it in the past.
So yes, that is baked into projections.
We do think there's some chance they will use Ajay Barnor
here on push push.
Sorry, go ahead, Cody.
- That's the projection team is truly grinding it
to a knob just accounting for every possible outcome.
- I think Jason Myers is like the perfect example
to kind of highlight all of the offseason research
that I did on the kicker stuff,
because you can see it there in the price point.
$5,400 for a kicker is not cheap.
I'm sure we're going to see Brandon Aubrey approach
that six figure or not six figure approach
that six K mark at some point this season,
but he projects for nine draft Kings points right there
at or above Hunter Henry and Ajay Barnor.
And then you can also see it there with ownership too.
28.8% is not nothing.
1.3% capital ownership is also not nothing
for the kicker position.
So I think Jason Myers kind of perfectly encapsulates
everything.
And again, if you're thinking about cash game contest
and lineup building decisions going back
to kind of playing the quarterbacks at the top of the show,
I think kickers also offer just a safety
that is tough to get from other players
at similar price points.
So if you're thinking about Jason Myers versus Cooper Cup
or Hunter Henry or Ajay Barnor,
I think somebody like him has a little bit of a higher floor
and still has access to a reasonable ceiling as well.
We've also found that underdog kickers
just tend to go under-owned.
They obviously have a worse projection most times
because they don't account for as many points.
But I think that's gonna result in a situation
where you get a little bit of a lower-owned
Andy Borgallis.
And I felt good enough about the ownership coming down
on him that I wrote him up as a leverage option.
So if you're thinking about playing kickers
and just wanna go with the other direction,
I think Borgallis will come in a little bit under-owned.
I'm with you on the defense is coming up.
I think specifically the Seahawks being a favorite.
And then if you look at Brandon Thorne's stuff,
I know his week, I don't think his week one,
O-line D-line mismatches are out yet.
They are, I apologize.
But just looking at the off-season stuff,
Patriot's offensive line, I think he had ranked 24th.
Last I looked, Seahawks D-line fifth.
So you have a nice match up there for a home favorite defense
that is also just very good across the board
and has good corner play as well.
So I think the Seahawks, the fact that I felt confident enough
in their price point and projection
to write them up as a potential value option
is just further indication that the field's gonna have
no problem gravitating toward them as well.
I do think the Patriots will stay in check.
The $3,400 price point feels really cheap,
but you're gonna be comparing them to again,
players like Hunter Henry, AJ Barner,
Demario Douglas, and then some other guys
that are a little bit more expensive.
I think the Patriots will probably stay in check
despite most of the field anticipating this game
being kind of gross.
- Yeah, I mean, the Patriots can get very pass-heavy
under Josh McDaniel, which is obviously something
that you want when you're playing
and opposing defense here.
Brought an interest for you
in either of these in the captain's spot
or how you're planning on handling kicker and defense.
- It feels weird to say,
but I do think that these special team's positions here
are gonna like really decide the slate.
I do think like you said, Adam,
Patriots could get a little bit pass-heavy here,
especially if they want to give for Mondray a breather
without really having to play these other running backs,
which I do think is gonna be the case.
Like Cody said, the underdogs,
especially on the road tend to go underplayed.
So I think the Patriots' defenses
are really interesting leverage spot,
not only because of just the low ownership on them,
but also because of the scripts
that typically come with a particular defense being optimal.
I think Andy Borrick-Ollis is really interesting.
I always have interest in the Seahawks defense,
especially when they're playing home.
They're just one of these defenses
that has a ceiling that others don't.
And then I think Jason Myers is really interesting
because he was unreal good last season.
And the field really caught on to that.
He got a lot of ownership whenever the Seahawks were on
island games, including in the Super Bowl,
but he was awful this preseason.
For those of us playing preseason,
showdown every week, he's just like ruining lineups.
Like he couldn't make an extra point.
It was really bad.
And as somebody who played a lot of him,
I wasn't really happy with it.
So I was already tilted with him.
But if that continues over here,
I don't think a lot of the field was watching him
miss these extra points like Cody and I were.
So I do think it could be a case
where he gets a little overwhelmed.
And maybe he just turns around and bouncing back
for the regular season here.
But if he's got any kind of issues
continuing over into the regular season,
I do think he's going to be,
quite a bit over owned.
I see the comment too that Bore Galis wasn't very good either,
but at least he's not going to come
with the ownership of Jason Myers.
- All right.
Yeah, I'm your Huckleberry who I believe is a Patriots fan.
And Andy, he's on a first name basis
with the Patriots kicker said that Andy stuck
in the preseason two.
All right.
Need to get the flag plans,
but shout out to Tony, appreciate you.
Said get the in season package.
Thank me later, appreciate you, Tony again for anyone.
Does not have ETR in season, be sure to check that out.
All right.
Oh, any fandal notes for the people here?
Cody, by the way, for a main slate in season,
we are covering fandal much more in depth.
We have dedicated people on fandal the season for ownership,
for the main slate and content as well.
But yeah, any fandal specific notes here
for the people Cody.
Yeah, pricing actually maps pretty closely
to fan from fandal with the draft kings this week.
That's not always the case.
I think as we get into the season more,
there will be more discrepancies.
The two biggest ones that stood out to me was Ramandre.
We've already talked about it.
I think when I wrote it up,
I was kind of expecting Travian to play and just be limited.
But he's an even better value on fandal
than he is on draft kings where he's $10,000.
Obviously, the running back position
in the half point PPR nature kind of changes things a little bit.
But Drake may is more expensive.
Sam Darnal to more expensive.
Jackson Smith and Jigba is 13K flat.
So I think the 10K price tag on Ramandre
just makes him an even better value,
which probably doesn't matter in the green scheme of things.
And then the aforementioned Jason Myers is 6,400 there.
On fandal, he is cheaper than the both defenses.
And excuse me, $400 cheaper than his own defense,
$200 cheaper than the Patriots defense.
So I think that price point on Jason Myers
on fandal makes him a superior value player.
All right.
Let's go to the moment everybody has been waiting for
the first flag plans of the season.
They didn't watch the show.
They just fast forwarded to the flag plans.
No pressure whatsoever.
I will give brought the floor first for your flag plan.
Yeah, so I was thinking back.
I believe it was two years ago for the NFL opener in 2024
was the first show I ever did with you guys.
It was the first show I'd ever done, just period for DFS.
Very nervous, had never done anything before
and got the chance to join you guys for a free show,
not even behind the paywall.
So extra people watching it.
And I came on here and I flag planted the Kansas City defense.
And I got booed off the show.
I thought I was never coming back.
And somehow I'm still here two years later.
So I'm going to take that as a sign.
It was actually a good flag plant, not a bad one.
And I'm going to go back to a defense.
Exactly what everybody wants.
Defensive flag plant.
And I'm going to go to the Patriots
because like I said earlier, I think it just
gets you in different game scripts
than what the field is going to be playing.
I think George Halani is going to catch some ownership.
Patriots defense are cheaper than him
and they provide direct leverage off of him.
There's other plays that are going
to be pretty popular down there.
I think there's a lot of good leverage spots on the slate.
But I'm going to go with another defense
here for my official flag plant.
Oh, right.
Brought with the Patriots defense for flag plant.
Love it.
You know, one thing you could say, man,
what if Clint Kubiak was the whole key to this thing?
And now he's gone.
I wouldn't be the craziest thing I've ever heard.
Cody, go ahead.
We had an opportunity to do the funniest possible thing
and get a natural CSU double dip there when Sam teed up the defense.
I thought he was going to see Hawks.
But I'm going to go with the guy that
would benefit from a Seahawks touchdown
or be the reason why the Seahawks potentially score
a defense or special teams touchdown.
Sometimes you just, you have to stay true to yourself.
That's all I'm going to do here.
It's been a long running thing of me losing money
with guys that have mouthwatering Adots
and just generally don't see the volume or perform well enough
to actually realize those air yards.
The Rashid Shahi 27 1/2 yard Adot, 23 yard Adot,
25.8 yard Adot in the three games.
The last postseason.
What if that role expands?
What if he still sees those downfield targets,
specifically a Tory Horton still sideline
and he gets some more underneath stuff
to actually supply some more volume to this current role?
I think the ownership's going to come down
or at least be held in check here.
So I'm going to go Rashid Shaheed Captain
for my first flag plan of the year.
With or without Seahawks defense for the double dip, Cody.
I'm going without.
He's going to do it offensively.
He doesn't need, great if he wants them,
but he doesn't need the punt or kick return touchdowns
to find a slate winning score.
He's going to do it on offense.
Okay.
All right.
I thought about a few guys here.
I thought about going with Cooper Cup
just to shove it down all the haters throw
to we're so angry about our best ball rank of 180
or 190 or whatever it was on Cooper Cup.
And I do think Cooper Cup's going to see five or six targets
in this game, but I'm not going to go to Cooper Cup
for the first flag plan of the season.
That would be embarrassing.
When I'm playing week one, I'm trying to think of things
when we look back at week one from week two,
be like, oh, of course, that was obvious.
And the number one thing from this game
that I can think of along those lines is,
of course, Gedarian price is a thousand times better
than George Halani and Emmanuel Wilson.
Of course, Gedarian price was stuck beyond Jeremiah love.
That just kept his tires fresh.
And now he's here to go nuts on the NFL.
So what if Gedarian price is actually like a top five,
top six running back in the NFL right now?
And we just don't know because we didn't really
see him that much in Notre Dame.
And we didn't really see him that much in the preseason.
And we just don't know.
And so there's just like no excitement
whatsoever around Gedarian price.
If he goes off on the Patriots, there will be a lot of buzz
on Gedarian price going to week two.
So I'm very interested in the usage.
I'm very interested in how he plays.
I think the ceiling outcomes on price
are way better than the floor outcomes.
So I will go with Gedarian price here at 7,238% ownership.
All right.
That's going to do it for the first showdown show of the season.
Not sure yet if the showdown show for Rams 49ers
will be free or in season subscribers,
but starting next week, most of these shows
will be for in season subscribers.
What I do know Friday night, myself, Silva, and Wiggins
established the show for in season subs
and then Saturday morning, Leoni and Ding talking
DFS tournaments for in season subs there as well.
Looking forward to that very much.
Also projections for all the games will be up tomorrow night.
All right.
Appreciate y'all being here.
So glad the season is back.
Thanks to everyone who tuned in all off season,
but alas, it is time for the actual games.
For Cody for Brock.
Bruce Orion for everyone behind the scenes at ETR,
which is a ton of people who put in a ton of work this summer
to get us here ready for week one.
I am at it.
Good luck.
Everybody.
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