Patriots 2026 Season Preview: Roster, Schedule, and Win Total Breakdown

Welcome to the acclaimed podcast, The Deep Died, featuring your esteemed hosts, Andy Monitor and Drew Dinsick, powered by Bet Spurs. They got a guy who can play. Here's a guy and he can play and that's going to make it tough for the powers that be that like to see the Super Bowl runner up crash out and fail to reach expectations as the common trope. It's going to be challenging for the Patriots to have as much success as last year because they're going to have to play some teams this year, which they did not last year. The two long didn't read version of this podcast. You want to just skip ahead to the end was, hey, this is a team that played pretty damn well. They made the Super Bowl. The quarterback is further ahead than we thought. They played better than we thought in a lot of facets of the game and they won three playoff games. And they, I believe, they improved their roster in the office. That said, it was the easiest schedule in the last ad whatever year it was going to have. The easiest schedule we've seen in many, many, many, many years, that through no fall to their own, they did beat three playoff teams, obviously, and they had to beat the Texans or did the Texans beat themselves to CJ Straub beat himself. They were there. They were present for that game. They made it that far. So you get to give them a bit of a strategy. Straub beat himself and then they did beat the chargers. That was a convincing one. We'll give them credit for one good playoff win. But yeah, things really did break their way. I'll tell you what, they broke their way until the Super Bowl where they faced the Seahawks who had exactly the wrong type of defense for the Patriots to have success. I have been thinking about this and I want to get your take. Is there another world where the Rams made the Super Bowl and the Patriots were actually left? That had been a really fun game. It would have been more fun than. I loved the Super Bowl. Don't give it your off. It would have been more entertaining. Right? Yeah, the Red Roof in Northern. It is basically Northern Minneapolis. I am in a hotel. I'm at the 3M this week. So I don't know the name of the hotel, but I do want to say there's a restaurant in the parking lot, just like a local joint. And I went there and I needed something to eat and I said, "You know what, I'll have a beer. Give me a tap beer." And she brings me two. So it's two for lunch? It's always two for lunch. Oh, hell yeah. She says 24/7, it's two for lunch. We got it really. We got two beers. I'm a little sleepy. All right. Yes, I forgot what you say because. I was just positive that Patriots kind of got unlucky with their opponent in the Super Bowl just because it was a very bad matchup for them. I mean, that's a bad matchup for anybody. They were a good matchup. Oh, of course, but a young quarterback, you know, like a guy who hadn't faced a lot of disguised coverages and simulated pressures all season, seeing it for the first time on that stage was not lovely, I'm sure. That said, yeah. Mike Good. You know, McDonald's extra time to prep that defense. I know, I know. Just all kinds of negatives. A past rush that just embarrassed your offensive line. A lot, a lot of things went wrong. That's it. I don't really want to diminish what the Patriots did last year because they were a good team. We did that all last year. Did you ever have them over the course of last year at the top of your head? Did you have them ever rated higher than a plus two? I have to go look. I have to go look. Just I'm just gay, you know, just off to have your head. You think you think it was a. I was probably close. Where did you think? I have my plus one. I'm going to put it up right now. I have my week by week numbers for 2025 and the New England Patriots started as a negative. There were several weeks. I had them around a three. You had them around a three? Yeah, I had them around a three into the playoffs. Does it feel like you have to start there this year? I think it's got to be similar because. Why? We're not grading the schedule. No, I know. We're grading the team. The power rating is independent of the schedule. How are they relative? When we make these power ratings for these, it's very independent. Yeah, like I said, I think they improve their roster. Yeah, okay. That was exactly what I was getting. I was me entering around to the question of really like, you kind of can't in good faith rate them lower than you finished with them last year. The way that they're off season one. If you're a Patriots fan and you're like, man, when are we going to finally get over this hump and win another championship to my age? It's definitely pointed out to you. Somebody has long suffering Patriots fans. Somebody pointed out the off season. I don't know that the off season controversy matters. It doesn't change your rating of the team, I don't think. No, I don't know that it affects like his. Yeah, I don't know. It is stature with the team or anything. No NFL discipline, even though they were leaking the details of their negotiations to bring an AJ Brown. And it was probably affecting the market. No discipline. And I have a look into it. But no, I think my kind of takeaway with the Patriots and their performances last season is they were never really above a two for me. I think I finished them around a 2.1-ish. But you can, I don't think in good faith start with a number this year that is lower than last year because Young Corps has another year in the same system. They retain Josh McDaniels. The guy who seemed to have the magical touch with the defense last year, Zach Kerr promoted to officially being the defensive coordinator. He called all the plays so it's effectively the same role. But that guy's got a pulse. Yeah, and if anyone who doesn't remember what happened there, is it Tarell or Tarell? I'm going to go to Tarell Williams. Tarell Williams had a prostate cancer, I believe. He was away from the team. Still with the team. And actually 90% sure he's cleared. Like he made it through. Healthy again, he's an assistant head coach. He's still with the team. But with Kerr calling the plays, defense for most of the year, he is just, they gave him the DC job. Like you said, McDaniels continuing on his third stint here in New England, for Abel made it to year two. Special team coach Jeremy, I think we talked about him last year, Jeremy Springer, because it sounds very close to one of my favorite TV shows from being here. Even though it is technically a different DC, not a lot of shake up obviously on the coaching staff. This was a 14 and three, this was a 14 and three regular season team last year. Their expected win loss was 12 and a half and 4 and a half, so slightly overachieved, expected. But they're, you know, not enough to say that they weren't warranting a serious, you know, top seed in the AFC with what they did. But yes, it's been covered so broadly, we're not going to, you know, kind of get into any more. We've played an absolute putting soft schedule. It was a cavalcade of teams that were not competing, particularly at the end of the season where they got the jets and the dolphins to close out and they won 42 to 10 and 38 to 10. A lot, a lot of backup quarterbacks through the middle of their season, a lot of young quarterbacks. But it didn't really matter because the big story for the Patriots and their AFC is, again, they have a guy in Drake May. Drake May was flat out awesome last year. The advanced stats made him the MVP, in my opinion, it was probably like 51, 49. He should have been the MVP, in my opinion. And I think, you know, this is, this is conjecture. But, you know, I think the tiebreaker for the handful of votes that went in favor of Stafford over Drake May were, Drake May, he'll be back. He'll email out of another by the Apple Stafford May not. And so we're going to give it to Stafford. It's a terrible way to break a tie, but I'm pretty sure that's just what happened. I had that silly, like, it was Stafford MVP, Parley and with TET ROI. Oh, nice one. I'd found it like, Bavada special. So it wasn't even a parley. I put together was like, hey, here's what we made it ready for you. And I took some of that a few weeks for the season. So I thought they got it right. But I mean, it's your credit. It does feel like if it weren't Stafford and like you said who maybe getting towards the end of his career It feels like you probably would have wanted it was only like a vote short. I believe it was pretty damn close so Congrats to him. Congrats to all the success they had this was kind of a rebuild Off the disaster year two years ago and they had a schedule and they went ahead and Said hey, we're ahead of schedule. We just had a really nice season Let's uh Let's finally go get a what I mean that both teams are gonna talk about today. It's like It's been a while. It's you know that that hey, let's find that wide receiver one guys. Let's get that wide receiver one in here and And figure things out name. Uh, we're talking about two different classifications of solving that problem today The other I'm not seeing bills solve that problem. I'm seeing the bills have had that problem. Yeah, yeah, I got you a bit I think it's a little bit more difficult to solve. Um, the the issues with the Patriots were pretty clear and obvious I thought at the end of last year They needed to make some upgrades on the personal and the defensive side of the ball particularly their lineback in core They needed to continue to develop their young players on the offensive line to provide ball protection for drake may and honestly like The moves they made at the wider seer to bring in Romeo dubs and then trade for J.J. Brown This was this was a splurge This is a rig. This is a team with the quarterback on a rookie contract and they splurged They went on got the best guy they could possibly get From a talent standpoint skill position standpoint that I was a J. Brown And I'm excited to see if uh if that uh continues to you know, bear fruit for the development of drake may I will kind of point out a couple of things in my autopsy of drake may he Absolutely smashed advanced stats. He was so clearly number one. It was it's not even really worth talking about in my opinion um, but the um the There's a success Okay, go ahead. I mean the knock is the sacks, but I will trade that for the deep ball that he possesses and you know Yeah, the athleticism and everything else he brought to the table. So and part of that was just hey This wasn't the best effort to fly. Yes. Yes, and when you have a good deep ball sometimes you have to hold it a little longer Uh The important things where he was willing to take the shot Yeah, and he was able to complete those balls his deep ball was absolutely brilliant And uh there were some aspects to his I think I thought some aspects to his performance where we didn't really see him get tested to the tune of Cross the street 50 times to get you know, don't make a mistake Um, you know the mistakes came at times and most of them felt like you know That's just the game was moving a little fast from him because something he was seeing on the field wasn't was he was expecting pre-snap um and you know the those you live with that as a second year quarterback if you can get the home runs that he provided because it was it was a great ratio of Home runs to strikeouts for Drake um, he uh, I would expect is you know, he has the NFL body. He has the you know, the skill set and the tools He should continue to take steps forward um and challenge among about being one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year um, the only maybe Reason to have a pause a bit of caution is it's not always a linear lineup for these guys sometimes there's a step backwards before two steps forward And it's that's kind of where you have to I think exercise a hero caution as opposed to just running with an idea that he's gonna be like That 90th percentile quarterback this year out of the gate. So That's really the big challenge of grading this team in my opinion because the quarterback is really not the not not an issue non-issue No, I think uh, you know, we'll talk about some of the changes we saw in this roster But the the difficult the difficulties around grading this team are how you feel about some of the additions to the defense How you feel like this offensive line looks with some addition slash Maybe a second year of continuity for some of these guys and a A little bit of weakness in a certain spots in the offense like maybe what's what exactly we're gonna get out of the running back room and it was actually Lead back there and what's gonna happen? So there's some nitpicking there, but it's definitely like you said it's not with the quarterback. I think we're in a good spot there Um, you want to talk other additions? Yeah, I'm good. We got some What's the receiver Romeo dubs Romeo dubs Romeo dubs. Nice. What's your grade in him B B plus Yeah, he's good forget about like his role as a wide receiver to in this offense like your your dub your dub's guy I'm a dubs guy. I remember he was a fun wonder. I think everybody He got like extra run in camp history here. Remember that it was like He wasn't supposed to yeah, everybody in their sister bed. I'm at like 80 to 1 to 1 or a year Oh, yeah So it's gonna be a jbr. Romeo dubs and then Mac Collins your Z hunter Henry in the makes it's a good receiving core Then after that the key shambodies and Mario deadlifts. I wouldn't say key shambu key shambu is doesn't qualify us then that is depth that shines in my opinion I'm not you're not a key shambu I'm not a huge I'm not a huge key shambu there's a world where booty outplays dubs I don't know. It is the second target getter in this offense. I think after a year brun Honestly, the quite by I look at this skill group. I think there's a lot of mouse to feed Ben. I think he's more of the problem is I just have him in such a small snap share and Because he's more of the yeah backing up a jbr. That's that's more of I think that's more of his role Whereas you know dubs is probably your slap guy and if you're spelling him or he's not working out It's more of hey Douglas is playing in that spot. I don't know maybe maybe booty plays more and I'm Bob wrong but I have him Okay, more as a depth on a like hey, you're a you're a boundary receiver. You're sitting down the I thought he flashed at times last year. I was a little surprised that Nobody came and I made the Patriots not for they couldn't refuse for him. What about Kyle Williams Instead of my Collins That's I think in like fifth six choice for me out of this group Steffan. It's it's it's a good thing to have a redundancy and embarrassment riches in the skill position group I guess but it was a little strange to me that they went out and signed dubs And while also making the move for a jbr. Maybe they were unsure that they were gonna do part two of that so they went made sure you know got got Got dubs on a four-year deal. Do you think dubbs is going to wear a giant flying Elvis super super super padded helmet. Okay, I would think okay, that'll be fun um other major moves the Ige Vera Tucker did you already say that three-year deal from no I didn't I was gonna say now you know they they brought in Moses last year They bring in Tucker this year. They're trying to Sure things up after some questionable drafting over the course of I mean everybody before Campbell I think didn't work out. I don't think strangers on the team anymore Yeah, they've been kind of working on the team. That's the name I haven't heard of all Cole strange they've been they've been working on this offensive line for a little bit. He's You know, he's a little injury pro. He's been some time. I think he had the triceps You I mean jumping ahead to drafting you drafted another tackle in the first round Yeah, kind of your parent because Morgan Moses isn't terribly young Wil Campbell is he's counting in the second year too and then believe that is center is the center year too as well Uh, Jared Wilson. Yeah, yes, yes Yeah, but yeah, you're your dollar capital into the wide receiver position your draft capital and dollar capital into the offensive line So a lot of focus on trying to continue to build around Drake main improve this offense in the offseason Reclamation project in James Huts James Hudson probably doesn't see the field um Late pick on another offensive line man some late picks on some backups in the running back room in quarterback room um, but yeah, I mean overall like Just the single addition of a J brown to your skill skill group room no matter what your team is should be considered a successful offseason opinion Didn't love as much what they did on the defensive side of the ball from a vision standpoint. What did you think? I mean he can't fix everything all at once. I guess it's kind of the answer we give when you do this sort of thing But and just a bunch of names a bunch of free you know free agent slash Trade I'm trying to look which one was a trade Brown in a bunch Harold Landry Yeah, here I maybe Alice But yeah, here I think Landry was free. Landry was free. Yeah Ellis, okay That was that was a year ago. Yeah Yeah, that was that was last year. I'm I'm trying to figure out which dream on Jones was signed as a free agent I didn't see any trades there. Yeah Yeah, no, I'm looking in the offensive side so it's very much owns what from Seattle Add some material and you know just some not just big but you get some rushing out of that and That's probably your biggest investment there. A lot of you have what's here in there. You have Barmore. You have your Star Cornerback. We're getting the camp here. And this is where these stories start to pop out a little more. Because some of the stuff we've done coming up to this is pre- even rookies and quarterbacks signing. And yeah, the Gonzalez thing. I think he's waiting for who's the cornerback in Seattle. I think he's waiting for him to. Where there's been. Where there's been. He gets to reset the young corner market and then Gonzalez is one. So I might have a bit of a hold in there. We'll see. Okay. That's checks up. They only lost was Edge, Clavian Chasin, who's a commander now. Some pretty negligible loss. And then a bunch of guys who barely saw the field in my back room and the cornerback room. Stefan Diggs no longer a patriotic. He's been released. But yeah, I mean, overall, this is pretty much the same team that we saw last year with some additions on the offensive side of the ball. And then the audio went a little side just squirrely on me. Yeah, people said I'm quiet. So I'm going to try a different mic. I don't know. Okay. I should have brought that last mic. I don't see if this helps guys. Let me know. But. Slider for me. Good. I'm glad it's louder. So yeah, overall, they're running it back with the additions of AJ Brown, Romeo, Dubs and a couple of one. Fine. And then the next one. I mean, I think that's a good one. I think that's a good one. That two weeks into the season we are like holy shit the Patriots are the best offense in the UFC and it's not close Yeah, eat quarterback in his prime eat lead wide receiver at the very tail of this prime like this could this could be Spectacular And I'm ready for it, but I'm starting at 7.7 He can try where you you are you're low because I am I have a 7.8. That's funny I didn't have a I was at golf today I never much time to look at yours. I just kind of said okay Take you know, I just took the numbers I plugged them in and made the chart But yeah, I mean it's still near the top of the starter scale of all the starting quarterbacks. He finished are you top five said? He's yeah, he's close. I'm gonna have to go look at all my numbers put together. I haven't fourth It's it's close enough where yeah, let's say he's top five The stakes into account the OC as well and like I said, I'm a fan of what McDaniel was able to get out of him last year I think he was a big part of it and We just the motion play action system that we've seen for a long time and obviously worked pretty well and Also took advantage some of the strengths of his athleticism like he's a top-tier quarterback And this is probably the floor we're going higher if it works out with a Jim Brown we're going higher I'm just tempering expectations to start the season. Yeah, okay. I have Two obvious ones higher Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I have one controversial one higher. I guess Kyler Murray. No, that's funny though We don't even know if he's gonna win the job Andy didn't you read? That was so funny today in the press conference They they were asking Scottie Shepler about it Cuz he because he played the program with Kevin O'Connell and they asked if he'd like if he'd brought a job I have a pretty good number on trash on as well Is it burl? I have no I have Niners pretty and Shanahan per find yeah, they're I oh shit. Yeah, I'm right there. That's such a there that is such a Consistently high good combination. I don't think you can sure change them right now. No, yeah, pretty Honestly, love the floors pretty high. It's not quite to this level. Nope Burrows close It was not that far down this is Darnelled Darnell not these close thing because it's a different OCE Mo homes close I have mobs like basically dead heat with Dead heat with Drake may come in into the season four five. Yeah, mobs Mom's is in a weird spot too with just the injury stuff Now you look at the behind them. We'll see if that's right. We'll get to them a different day All right, I have to keep Stafford low if I if I don't drop Stafford a little Yeah, there's a plus ten my ramps number is gonna be like a plus and that I think it's I think there's a chance We got a career at him for sure My my ramps number is still kind of Wrable still it's number one with a bullet. Yeah, it's gonna be number one probably for me all season I would I don't know how that's gonna change all right pack to the Patriots skill position group Good good group The we didn't mention anything about the running back Too-headed monster I I think Josh McDaniels is gonna carry on the rich traditional history of Yeah, it's a Patriots tradition as a Patriots tradition of just sticking his thumb directly in the eye of anyone who plays fantasy football Which I absolutely adore I have Travian Henderson as the RB1 there. He is my 28th Highest contributing running back of the season. I have Ramondra Stevens as the 31st highest so 50 50 combination between that group AJ Brown is my wide receiver number seven I believe Let me look it up Yeah, he's a he's seventh best for me And yeah, I love the depth. This is a great great great great great group. I don't know that they're the best in the Anna I don't know that they're the best in the AFC tight-end room week Lot of mouse to feed which actually now that I'm looking at it the mouse to feed takes away from AJ Brown's contribution to this score so I'm actually a little bit lower than I would have guessed it's just In the blind where about you? I'm a 5.7 here There's a few knocks and it is not it's not the best running back group. I actually have I need to go to like the fantasy football projections I think a little more I wrote that down in my notes and like Because I ran into this and like God who's even the lead back here does it? Is that like a thing we know I went like 55 45 Stevenson I think and again they're so close does it doesn't really move my numbers anyway But I'm gonna see what the fantasy pundits say about the the touch share there Built Drake made it's running a little bit into this as well and obviously it's a drop off after AJ Brown dumps is Dubs is very good. What was your number? Yeah, I'm at a 5.7 here. I made a mistake. I'm at a 5.9 The one I sent you I think was 5.4. That's not right. I'm not 5.9. It was there in my part 5.9 for me Good group. Oh, yeah, you're right the running back room is pretty weak. They there's they're gonna eat a lot of touches Which is problematic and I think um the um Yeah, tight end room week. A lot of master feed dilutes the amount of touches for um AJ Brown. So yeah, that's minus Uh offensive one Are they better than average? I'm starting below average that a ton I I think I want to bring this up a little the more I look at it and you know I made these numbers earlier in the week but I am at a 4.1 And I think I'm I'm at the floor here. I'm at the floor. It's There's a lot of youth that we need to see really prove it against You know another full year You have like one settler Uh Unwano Right guard Yeah, he's fine. I like him. I like him But yeah, I'm kind of digging guys for some youth I'm digging the vera Tucker things because I don't think he's healthy I'm digging Morgan Moses because he's our age And you know some of the availability projections Aren't aren't super great especially for like vera Tucker It was a rush offense that was Kind of bottom third Top of the bottom third top of the the range there He was pressured out and by he I mean drake made sacked heavily it was I think six sacks of the Super Bowl There were times where those offensive lines struggled There is a you know some continuity bring some two of these young guys back again But yeah, I'm a little below average to start and I hope I hope to be proven wrong because of the you know, I again, I believe in Trashwick Daniels, I believe in drake man getting another year He's going to help this offensive line not give up his money sacks if he plays a little differently and better So I'm at the floor. I'm at 4.1 Okay, so this is funny a little bit of process for me on offensive line This year I made my own numbers. I'm not an expert at this for any stretch the imagination pass the pass block grade run block grade I split them 5545 Some of them up account for Availability just like you said And I came up with New England as the 21st best offensive line But I didn't want to base my rating entirely on my own number so I took a composite And there was an outlier high for offensive line ratings four for four For for four has New England's offensive line is the 10th best Which really pulled up the whole Composite to where I'm like I have them as on average like 16th best. So I'm right on 5.0 for for this group Can't argue with four for four Yeah, they're smart So I'm at 5.0 for New England We'll monitor that though because I feel like I feel like in my gut I feel low on skill group and I feel high on offensive line If Drake may is actually a nine again instead of a 7.7 if this skill group is an eight again instead of an eight instead of a 5.4 Then this is the best offense that I will have rated across the NFL. So 10th right now for me with room to improve. They are a 66th percentile offense as we head into the season for me and Yeah excited to see them tested against some actual defenses this year Yeah, this is a I hate getting excited about this team because you know like Personally that big fan of the the Patriots But you know it'll be this will be a fun team this could be a very fun team Before we move to the defense I should mention you guys But the show and all these shows in this preseason are brought to you by circus sports. Yes Circus sports contest including Circa Million Eight Circus Survivor and Circa Grand Vsimole In case you have a hundred grand thing around and you want to turn it into like five million thirty million dollars in guaranteed prizes If you have ten grand thing around find ten other friends with ten grand sitting around turn that into five hundred thousand There's no rake there is no rake And if the entries the amount of entries goes above the guaranteed money that's all goes right back into the pot and was paid out They will give it to you in casino chips if you want which I found out That's not the best idea take you and check drive it home Entries close to tibber 12 at 2 p.m. You must register to circus sports. We can Nevada. We will be out there for sign-up weekend Let's get excited Yes cannot wait to go to circa. I'm actually at the stage of planning my biggest trips for august and I'm Yeah, we're gonna be out there before side up. We can we'll also be up there too excited very excited All right Thank you to circa very very very good. Not could not have had a more delightful News than finding out we get to sponsor them or we get to promote them again this year Defense for the me for the Patriots scored surprisingly high I hope this is not influenced by a weak competition last year But surely buried in my number or process somehow some way somewhere I have this as a relatively average runstop unit for me. It's 5.1 I have this is a below average pass rush there are rating at a 4.3 But this coverage unit grades well I think christian gonzalez is a plus plus I think Carlton Davis is a small plus. I think Marcus Jones is a small plus. I have no No qualms with Craig Woodson and I thought Kevin Byard was in fine move to help so show up your safety position The depth concerns me on the coverage a bit But I'm going into the season with them as a 6.9 coverage wise which is pretty high among league Secondaries for me. Yeah, I think I think that's probably the one you would get the most pushback on So that is for a little higher than where I'm at let me see what my numbers are I'm a little higher than you on pass rush. I'm at a 4.8 I like some of the investments they've made over the past couple years. I think They're healthy. What in barmore ahead, you know, he's had those blood clot issues for for healthy and good This is a average to pushing above average The paper talent gets it to average health improving it push beyond that five run stuff. I was higher as well I'm going to 5.7 here Some of it was just the you know carry on from last year into the stats I used It was You know again, we split some of the paper grades and we start to take some of the The grades and the players and who's going to rotate through in the front seven there and Obviously some of the some of the stats we had from last year even were we're decent against the run So above average there and then little lower on coverage. I'm at a 6.1 which I think probably is closer to market That's probably you're you're pretty rosy on I guess maybe by arden Gonzalez hopefully Gonzalez gets his deal done and just plays right away. So um I'm maybe more on the floor there and need to come up a little bit. We'll see so I'm pretty much near the same price as you for the defense I just have it slightly different as we get there Okay Special teams in coaching my coaching number for the Patriots is a five. I don't think bray will bring anything special to the table Uh and but he's not a minus either for me 2.5 for me for special teams. Oh wow. We are in lockstep. Look at that uh look at that shack on plot. Boom Yeah, I guess I'm low on special teams And high on offensive Like I said for for my special teams I take special teams dv.o.a. I take special teams I think maybe the pf. I take like three special teams numbers and then I check Do we have the same coach? Do we have the same players or did anything different? You know, is there anything drastic before I make an adjustment And again our special teams is such a small part of the pie that that's not gonna be a big change So I'm I'm higher than you in general and I think some of it is just my process process for sure. Yeah, no How we come up with these numbers and I think that's the quick point on that It doesn't matter how you want to translate these into power numbers Because as long as you're doing it the same for all 32 teams and you can justify your process I think you're fine because yeah, we're not that different on numbers But I'm at I am at a plus 3.9 Yeah, and I I tell you guys told you I made a mistake on what I sent you on skill group and so my actual numbers 3.04 so I'm a plus 3.04 for the Patriots they rate as my Seventh best team in the NFL market has them at 2.58 that is good for 10th best in the NFL Here's the thing Andy we are both higher than the market on the Patriots and we are both acknowledging that We could get 90% how we could get a 90% out quarterback and a you know any lead offense between Drake Manage A Brown So we are already high and it with I I'm guessing That both of us have scope to go higher. Is that fair? Yeah, I think we've said it numerous times during the podcast There's there's room to grow in this especially in the offensive side and truthfully if the defense is Just a little above average and the defense doesn't allow us any further than we think it is I don't care as long as the offense is Taking meaningful steps forward because that's a wins football games speaking of So the defense is a 50th percentile and the offense climbs to 70th. I'm still I'm gonna have them in the fourth best team so yeah Yeah, this is this is scope for This is scope for going up and They might be a bet on early in the season As their dogs in three of their first four games Wow Good teams. Yeah three of four on the road Pit sandwiched in the middle who's always a tough out for New England no matter who the quarterback is for some reason Can we do it quick aside on Pittsburgh? Sure Who is the quarterback for Pittsburgh Aaron Rogers? Did you see the news? Did you see the news on him? I did lost his fire as he lost because he because he mended vences with his families He's talking to his family like some sort of softy Still hasn't introduced us to his wife Then yeah, maybe that's next but that is strange because I mean it was like I'd decade of that being a talking point Did he hate his parents or would have? But yeah tough one Faddle to open Buffalo ad buffalo Um and week four you got a couple of pretty tough ones. So how's that game now prime time? I don't know that's just a just a one-of-clock game Green game At Jacksonville not only three dog spots but three road spots under the first four games A definite respite after that and it pretty soft landing Relatively, but this is a does the first player schedule is the the tough-ass schedule compared to what we had last year and it's gonna be a lot of proof It's It is gonna be a lot of proof it's um not a lot of rest disadvantage They don't play anyone coming off of a buy Um one difficult travel spot You see what I'm seeing right yeah, they fly to Munich to play the lines I'm just guessing I know you've done that a few times. I don't think you can red. I don't think you've been right on these ones This one. I know it's not London. I know it's not Paris. It's either It is you know what it is Munich Munich actually now this one. Yes. The new one that Detroit is in Munich Um They get a buy but then they fly to LA What the fuck man? That's a crazy amount of frequent flyer miles and Sandwiched around your buy so travel then make it tough to really rest and regroup and around Thanksgiving Um, hey you have two out of three Yeah, two out of three weeks leading up to the international flight you're traveling Yeah, you do you're five but then you as you mentioned you gotta go all the way to LA before you get a couple of home games and home games It's good teams You gotta play new you gotta play Jacksonville in the middle of the day in Florida and September that doesn't feel good usually Um one p.m. Kickoff for the Jags game Yeah, I mean there's a lot of there's a lot of opportunity to stub their toes on this but I also think um The floor for their wins is pretty high here. Here's the thing some of the some of the week teams they play I think this is the situation we run into this year they have fewer wins than last year Which is not really going out on a limb yeah wow they they won four two but but it's like hey This team won three fewer games in last year they're 11 and six But I should they be right higher, but it's like this is a higher power rate and team Relative to the market relative to the rest of the league coming. I think that's right play out I think that's right. I think that's kind of where we we may end up with this team like this is a good team. I think that's right. They played a lot of other good teams and they're definitely in the mix to return to the Super Bowl. Short rest for your Thursday and in football game against the mighty Vikings, but then long rest before a Monday night footballer against the Kansas chiefs. That's fun. Is that the definition of the Widowmaker? I forget. No, you have to have extra rest, but they have to have the short rest. Oh, okay. So it's you getting the extra rest to a Sunday, again, someone who played Monday. Yeah. I got to make a Widowmaker symbol for the schedules. And we also had there's the other one where the Widowmakers. There's also the one where it's not as much extra rest. You have the shorter extra rest, but they're still coming off the short week, which is the many Widowmaker. I don't remember what I mean. These graphics just exist in here. So that's funny. All right. Nothing else notable about the schedule aside the fact that compared to last year's, this is the schedule for now. Final thoughts. They are currently the second choice to win the NFC East. That is why we were doing them. Third, my fear for the division. I said, it did a first round of late July sims. My fear for them to win the division is just a hair under 40%. I have the bills at a hair under 50%, which is to say that the 10% that I've allocated towards the jets and dolphins is fougazzy, but still it's, you know, they have, you know, 10% less. My favorite thing about that is, like if you go to draft games right now, Buffalo's minus 125, New England's plus 120. If you start, if you start devigging the heads, it doesn't really leave anything for the other two teams, which is probably correct. Yeah. Yeah. You want to, yeah, if you want another team in the NFC, NFC East, I think you basically are making a parlay that season long injuries for Alan and May and September. That's your path. They bang into each other and break their arms. Like in the handshake line, we were. Bill's to an NFC East is actually minus 171 on on bookmaker. Pinterest plus one. Maybe I have a. I think it's like a fifth. I think it's like a 55 45 really between these two. The numbers are the numbers are fine. I'm not even even though I like New England. Yeah. I'm not interested in taking a long time. If you made me put together a division parlay bet, probably put an end to England. What about you? Yeah, they'll just fund a good 1818 parlay. Would you put New England or what is your what is your parlay time? Well, we've only done two divisions. I think it's Philly in New England so far. I'm intrigued by Dallas, but I haven't I just haven't gotten there yet. Sure. I feel like I might be overrating Dac. I might be overrating Christian Parker who I've never really heard of outside of knowing where he came from. Yeah. So yeah, I think so far my division parlay is Eagles Patriots, but and we'll get to why. I think I just think the Patriots right now at a three a plus three rating for them is correct. And October, there is a small percent chance that we're down to a plus two. And there is a meaningful percent chance that we're up to like a four or four and a half. I know I wonder about some entry and I don't even know if it's patriots, say if C or patriots, Super ball. I wonder if we'll look at the schedule. Yeah, there's some sketch struggle there. And I wonder if that's a spot where it's like hatred is like 25 to 1 to 1 to the MVP right now. Patriots are about to host the Raiders who are going to submit meant referendum endoses making his first start with the 0-14. Yeah. And then they get the jets at home. Chicago Miami Green Bay. That is two of those games out of those three games you probably win. So if you start out one in three and then you go four and four and one, you're still very, very alive to get the playoffs. My make the playoffs for the Patriots is high. I'm at 62 percent I think. Let me look it up. Sixty. I'm at 162 percent for me for the Patriots to make the playoffs. So perfect world. They start one in three. Everybody is clamoring Super Bowl hanging over. They're make the playoffs prices over 50 percent. Yeah. Yeah. I would add some of that to go with the I really like some depressed Drake man, the P numbers to at that point. Oh boy, would that be nice? Is that because I need to think of that. It might take because he's like 12. It's I think right now. And you know, if that price doubled because of the tough star and you know, getting a feel to play with your number one receiver, maybe it takes a few weeks and and then we get to a point where now the schedule eases up. You're a little more comfortable. Offensive line is jelling. We have some, you know, the defense start to come around a little bit. You know, the Racini stuff has died down finally. I think that resurgis. It's one of those where it's it's going to come back here now that fribles back in the dude. If they start out, oh and three, one and three. Oh boy, those press conferences are going to get real. There's one media. If there's one media group that will really stick their, you know, stick their finger in his eye and really kind of get under his skin. He's not going to get free pass from the Boston media. No way. Traditionally pretty forgiving. They may actually be distracted this year because apparently the red socks are the best even baseball. But yeah, anyway, no, I definitely I'm I'm quietly rooting for that. Yeah. Any less thoughts? Nope. Let's talk bills. I think that's kind of my. I guess I can't help this struggle a little, but I see that just hey, you played some tough teams. No, I do have one last thought. I do have one last thought. Patriots right now to win the AFC repeat is plus 804. You know who had no problem taking very, very, very early success in the NFL with a deep ball that was just magical and an elite wide receiver. And then just went to the Super Bowl year after year after year after year, Pat Mahomes. Like if there's a slippage early, I actually think the bet isn't to make the playoffs to win at least it's AFC. No, that's what I'm saying. If they're one and three, I'm betting in equal parts AFC MVP and probably just some make the playoffs to just to get your your to cover to to balance out the right balance out the you balance out the if they make the playoffs, you those winnings cover your stake on MVP and AFC. Perfect. Yes. So all right. Hit the music. We'll call this day. We'll come back. We'll be on the news. I think we should do it. I think we should do it after the Jags game. If it's one and two or all and three after the Jags game is where we fire before they play the bills because I got feeling the Patriots you're showing off. We will put that. Hey, for you guys who do this put that on the calendar. I'm going to add that to my Google calendar. Bet the pass. After they lose the out. First one. After they lose in Florida. After they lose in Florida and then 99 degree heat 90% you made it. They're doing that since as long as I can remember.