Passing Game Targets + Potential Surprise Rookies: Going Deep with Brandon Angelo and Matt Waldman

All right, welcome to going deep. It's been a little while. I was on vacation. I was actually up in Brandon's back of the woods. Yeah Yeah, but But listen, you know, we got a fun show tonight We're gonna we're talking about Jaguar's targets and light of some things that we've heard in OTA I get it we get a chance to ask Brandon how he feels about Brian Thomas on on another thought whether he feels the same way or different rookies who may earn greater roles than we initially thought around the NFL draft time based on what we saw in OTAs I'm kind of interested in the Giants passing offense not necessarily from a fantasy perspective From myself personally, but as you know, I think as a writer it's important for us to look at in all the corners of places because There are times that we should think about what if says an exercise and decide whether or not those if start to come through Verition when we could take advantage of a situation and so we're gonna pose that with the Giants passing offense And then the Cardinals passing offense, you know, there the new offensive coordinators There was a kind of a shift in how Players got used last year on that offense is that more of a one-year wonder thing Michael Thomas Or is it more of a things to come and and we'll talk about that. So Let's just start off with the Jaguar as Brandon. I mean listen, you know you listen you listen OTAs and OTAs like every day Parker Washington is gonna be even more involved than he was before we want to target this guy down field some two You know Jacobi Meyer signed an extension in midseason so we know he's firmly entrenched as a Component of this and we talked pretty much all During the season that you know Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas they don't really have a connection in the deep game and That's why we got Jacobi Myers. That's why Liam Cohen said all right Well, I guess it's dying that Miami Brown Travis Hunter Brian Thomas going deep all the time kind of thing isn't probably gonna work for me like I thought Let's pivot quickly and they pivoted well, but now we're hearing in camp. Well, you know, they're they're they're working on their rapport and they're hitting each other in OTAs on deep passes and that there's people who are like you have not seen the demise of Brian Thomas has been greatly exaggerated so right, you know, and then there's Travis Hunter same role as last year which says to me Probably he's he's gonna be a defensive back who occasionally gets gadget plays and then there's this whole We we've beefed up our tied-in room, you know, so I mean depending on what avenue you want to take this team could be 13 personnel This team could be 10 personnel It's probably somewhere in between but what say you Brandon? Where are you on this whole Jaguar's target scenario and what do you suggest to fantasy GM's? Yeah, I think my first suggestion is probably darker Washington I just think in general the passing offense is gonna flow through him. Yeah, you kind of look at you know Go go back to you know Tampa basically with Cohen, right? He's gonna play that Chris Godwin role. Yeah, we thought that was probably gonna be Travis Hunter Obviously the injury really slowed that trajectory as a receiver, but now at the Jaguar is really Subtracting that defensive back room like Travis Hunter without a doubt is gonna have to play a lot at DB For them to keep points off the board So that's a big one. It's not that he can't play receivers They have just a gaping hole at defensive back that they need someone to fill and he's the best defensive back on their roster And was the best defensive back coming out of college football asher So he definitely makes the most sense in that role you hit the nail in the head will probably play some receiver But I'd be shocked if he's at 50% snaps this year I think in the future they're gonna want him to play more there to justify picking him number two and then also justify paying him down the line. That's a big one, right? But when we talk about Brian Thomas Jr. How he fits I think it's difficult because There's so many good Short-to-intermediate targets on that team right now with Myers and Brenton strain just getting an extent and work 45 million dollars Obviously Parker Washington to you know, you have three guys that are really good in this short-to-intermediate game That's where Trevor Lawrence lives he is not a Deep ball passer. I mean he's really an off at times He just completes struggles to push the ball down the field and he's not super comfortable doing so And I think the the thing with Thomas Jr. is he's not a 50/50 ball player So it's not like you have Mike Evans down the field right where you know if he gets separation He can you know go buy someone and cradle it in but you know Also go up and get it over defensive backs. That's not Brian Thomas Jr.'s game So he's really more so in the vein of Okay, like if I beat somewhat deep like I can cradle it in you know, I can create separation with my speed But you have to take you know Four to six shots a game at that Remember for that to work and with Mac Jones at the helm a couple years ago that worked really well for the Jabwars Because Brian Thomas Jr. was getting behind defenses Mac Jones was in the freight a little rip Trevor Lawrence doesn't do that Right, it's death by a thousand paper cuts in that offense with Liam Cohen and the playmakers that have in the short-to-intermediate areas They want to get back to the ground game a bit more this year Liam Cohen said that they were gonna lean into Tutan and Rodriguez and and the other guys that are back there look when Alan up their downs So I think it's gonna be difficult to see Brian Thomas Jr. having a significant target share if it was you know from a betting man I think Brian Thomas Jr. might be third in targets this year like I wouldn't be surprised if He's behind Washington and Jacobi Myers and then you're looking for just you know Ancillary targets with Breton strange. I just don't see his role being that important in both the offensive structure of Liam Cohen But also to the playstyle of Trevor Lawrence and what he's currently operating with which is a lot of really good Short-to-intermediate short-to-intermediate area guys, which is also his skill set Yeah, no, I think that's I think that's a great answer to what's going on here. I mean for me You know when you draft Nate Bohr-Curture as early as you did you I guess you think you're trying to you're gonna want a block You're gonna want to have a second tight end in the mix there and so that's part of it I mean they did get Tanner cozy all as well, but he's a jump all you know pass catcher who They always show up well in OTAs and T-shirts and shorts the you know I have the the big tall range he received her theory for OTAs, which is if they're those dimensions Those are the types of balls that impress beat writers and those are the types of balls that get thrown that You know early, but then you know once we started to get in shells Now we're not the game changes and then it's more about reading and route running and and not just positioning and catching sure so You know I'm in In concept I agree completely with you with the target share that it's gonna be Myers and Washington one two however order it's gonna be close I think But there is a possible the one with the highest ceiling though might be Washington agreed in terms of that and And the third guy I had was Brian Thomas now I Heged my bets in June as just a starting point because I'm looking at this and go and Just like everybody else. How is this really gonna work out? So conservatively? I have it a much tighter target share between the three of them than what will probably end up being the case because I want to see How much 12 they're actually gonna do I want to see who you know what this what's happening? The first few weeks of training can first couple weeks of training camp if possible like what? What we're hearing about you know just play to play I have a feeling what will likely happen is like right now I have it Basically 120 targets each for Myers and Washington And 110 for Thomas, but I don't think Thomas is anywhere near that. I think it's probably Gonna be more likely 140 to 150 for Washington Probably 120 for Jacobi Myers and then that means that we're looking at probably 80 75 80 targets for Brian Thomas and then maybe you know, I've strange it like 56 targets right now And I think that may go up depending on how often they're they're rolling with 12 personnel, but You know, I'm with you Thomas is a You know Thomas is in the same way that Marvin Harrison is in the same respect, but the different but different Sizes of player they both are best with their back to the quarterback when the ball arrives not as good in the contested area, but Thomas is a more fluid mover than Harrison is. So he can give you some dig routes, he can give you some slants, he can do some of that, but is he going to do it as well as Washington and Myers? And the answer is no. Yeah. And that's the reliability aspect, I think, is super important, right? Especially with the field, I mean, just, you get hit on the head, I mean, Washington, Myers are more reliable targets in that area. So I think absolutely it's a big one. We're going to talk about the Cardinals and we can just segue right into that. I mean, I think the Cardinals offense is going to revolve around, you know, bright at love for the most part. You kind of look at La Floor and kind of see, all right, like what role is Harrison, Jr. going to play? And you can kind of, and they've said it already, is kind of like the Devante Adams role, right, with the Rams, where it's low red zone, you know, be more of a possession type receiver. So they see with him. I think obviously he can grow into more, but I think he's going to be fighting between, like tertiary offensive role between him and Wilson. I think Michael Wilson's a better downfield receiver right now than Harrison, Jr. just because you mentioned the fantastic catches, right, the ability to, you know, ward off the fenders and be an acrobat and survive the ground. That's stuff that Marvin Harrison Jr. showed at Ohio State, but he hasn't translated much of that into the pros. Obviously he still struggles post catch. There's a lot of things that are still kind of warts on his game that I think it's hard to say and NFL offense can revolve around this guy right now. I think love and McBride are safe. That's obviously you're putting good lord how much guaranteed into love picking him that high. And then McBride obviously, he was the best tie-down, past catching tie-out in the league. So those are going to be your focus points. And then quarterbacks obviously an interesting one, but they're probably not going to be too great defensively like they were last year. So that's the similarity you're going to have. So you're going to be playing from behind quite a ton. So that's going to definitely help that tertiary ass catcher out whoever that, you know, whoever that ends up being or offensive player. But I think it's kind of one of those muddier situations with, you know, outside of McBride and love, like offensive share, you're probably pointing closer to Michael Wilson than you are. You know, Marvin Harrison Jr. on a game-to-game basis for sure. Yeah, I'm, I see, I actually see it as, um, Tray McBride still leading in targets, but I think that Michael Wilson's going to wind up being second on this team with, with love third. Um, and love actually love and my Harrison battling it out for third. Yeah, it's targets for sure. That's, that's where I see that. And I think that the reason being is when you mentioned Devonte Adams and that's because they also mentioned, well, Marvin, Marvin Wilson is going to have, excuse me, Mike Wilson is going to have the Pooke and a cool role. Now, everyone who hears that who is, who's, you know, got some experience in this game is going to be a little jaded when they hear that. And they're going to say, um, somebody really expect Wilson to average like 9.79 targets per game that we've seen from Nikua throughout his career in the Rams offense. Um, and I'm going to say, yes, I, I'm going to say yes, I believe it. And, and here's why, um, Wilson average 4.4 targets per game with Kyle Murray during his first two seasons in NFL, okay. But last season with Perse, and they had to be a garbage time team and they let they were a huge garbage time team. And Wilson got a lot of garbage time catches. We're going to get the garbage time a little bit later here. But because of that, they're throwing the ball more. They've got to do that. Well, under Perse, for those 12 games, Wilson average 7.4 targets per game with three game bump. And then when he was, um, actually not, um, that was 7.4 per game with Murray and Brissette combined. When playing specifically with Perset, he averaged nine targets per game. And after week nine, when Murray got hurt, he averaged 10.55 targets per game. Um, now, you know, when Harrison got back in weeks nine and 10, Harrison got 22 targets to Wilson's 11 and people will mention that. And I'd say, if the Cardinals had the same offense and staff, that would be a legitimate concern. But when you start saying pretty clearly, Wilson's going to have the Pukinakoo role. That, that, that means he's getting the quick hitting routes, the shorter routes, the, the ones that depend on, you know, short area quickness and savvy on being able to get defenders to turn their hips early and getting yards after the catch. These are all things that Wilson excelled at at Stanford. Um, and he why he reminded me of Michael Thomas. If Michael Thomas were playing with the Rams, he would have had the Pukinakoo role without question. You know, the Pukinakoo role really is the Michael Thomas role. And so the Mike Wilson opportunity here to me is he's the wide receiver one in this offense. And he's got a veteran quarterback, at least for now. Um, and that's the concern is do we go to back out, you know, after they go on and then you say all bets are off, right? But then I would say probably for most of the offense, but the, but then I would say, what are the easiest routes to throw? Um, it's not the intermediate routes. It's kind of more the, the quick hitters, you're at least, you know, it may not be the easiest to discern from a read standpoint in the NFL. But those are the, you know, the guys who are going to get the first reads in this offense that are not manufactured touches are going to be big bride Wilson. So are they going to be as impacted? I would say probably not. You know, and so if you go from, from that and then you look at garbage time, people go, oh, well, the myth of garbage time is, oh, defenses don't play as intense. They're not, they're not covering as tightly. There's lots of underneath stuff. And sometimes when they're playing pre event, you're going to see some of that. But garbage, but, you know, although Michael Wilson got a lot of points in garbage time, he was also the, the second best contested catch receiver in the league last year, according to pro football focus. And he did it on fewer targets. He was tied with pickings and he did it on fewer targets than pickings. Um, so that kind of mitigates a little bit of the, the worry about, you know, defenses played easy on him, you know. So, you know, when I look at all that, I think if you're, you're getting a receiver who, if, if per set can stay in, you know, under center, or bet can be reasonably, you know, reasonable in terms of what he does. Um, you're probably getting a guy who will have top 15 top 20 value. Like one to two rounds later. Then, then what that value really, you know, than that value really is. So to me, the higher up and the draft you are, the, the smaller the differences, I mean, like even just a round difference is a big value. Um, so I'm kind of, that's kind of where I'm at with it is that, you know, overall, I'm a, you know, McBride's going to be McBride probably close to 1200 yards. You know, maybe close to 160 targets, you know, kind of where he was. I see Harrison floating with 145 targets. Not really. Not really. Well, well, well, well, yeah, I'm like, 45 targets. And then I have Harrison floating with maybe getting to 100 targets. It depends on how much you see him and love. Maybe him and love are both at about 85 really. Well, I think you obviously going to be in tune to see in the passing game for them. I think he's an easy target, especially when they're playing from behind. Yeah, I'll be one of the interesting storylines. I think the track is we get in the season here for sure. So, so the giants. Okay, I mean, I know that, you know, it could be worse. We could be talking about the dolphins again. But like, you know, there's some one that, you know, we got to look at the scenario. You have, you know, Jackson Dart, who we know that he's got a lot of warts that he's got to clean up. Okay, but he can run then there's then there's what Cam Skatabo did who was, you know, I think you mentioned David Montgomery with him at one point pre draft. Yeah. And, and he is definitely a more explosive David Montgomery. Yeah. And should be ready to go in this offense to me, it seems like how you're not focusing on getting Cam Skatabo with John Harball running this offense. And likelihood of them using a fair bit of two tight end sets, you're looking at a 12 to 15 touchdown running back just in the running game. If they can, they can get to the red zone. You know, and then but getting there is with that passing game. So what is going on here because you know We've talked about Malik neighbors wait till next year later later this year. They during that time They brought in Odell Beckham and jujus mischuster I'm like 1.3 million dollar contracts They signed Cal they signed Darnell mooney to 1.3 million dollars. I think that's the same amount they signed him to Mooney played in Matt Nagy's Ornegy system in Chicago You've got Darius Slayton and Malachi fields probably there's they're hoping that feels somehow can overtake Slayton But Slayton's kind of a stalwart you know what you got with him So he might sure he's probably gonna start the season and then that leaves us with like To me Calvin Austin Like you look at Calvin Austin and he think okay Well he reminded me of one Dale Robinson and they were in the same draft class He was a more explosive one Dale and a better guy on the outside than one Dale who could make contested plays but this isn't Brian Dable's offense anymore So you know and they've got three guys they've got Nagy, but they also Took Brian Callahan and he'd volunteered he decided to take a lesser job as a passive game coordinator I think or the run game coordinator and then Greg Romans Old buddy Greg Roman of John Harball is also there too So what that says to me. I don't know about you. It says if if Nagy Nagy's polarizing you know on there are some people I think in coaching circles than thinking he was Some sort of emerging genius and then there's people in Coaching circles or in media circles who think and public sphere who think that he was a cocktail riding doofus You know who really doesn't know what he's doing Bears fans would probably attest to the ladder So so you look at that and you wonder like is You know Did they have these two experienced the offensive minds who can you know in there in case Nagy is really bad and They and they can kind of get rid of him quickly. I think there's something to that Sure or at least they have redundant smart to have redundancy, but then the question is All right, you know John Harball said we think I think this is the best most talented tight-end room I have in the NFL with Johnson Isaiah likely Thomas Fodone and Chris Mann hurts which I mean, you know That's not a bad room and all around type of world so in the realistic NFL world Which means to me is like they probably want to use a lot of 12 and bash camp scatabo Basically, you know through the hearts and and minds of opposing defenders and that means we're not gonna see you as much 11 personnel and the and if there is a slot receiver the true slot receiver is probably gonna be Isaiah likely you know, so So my thing is with all this is a lot of what ifs we you know if the if this team goes more 11 than we think if this team You know does that if if like you know if likely gets hurt and they lose their passing down weapon That likely they see likely to be do we see more Austin does Mooney play in the slot or is he more of an out He's more of an outside guy. Do they put Malik neighbors in the slot because He's probably the best route runner on the team and despite the fact that he's not fully healthy At least he's not getting jammed in there as often and maybe he can be a little he can get a little bit A nice little on ramp to getting back to football playing out of the slot Though there's demands with that then there's O del who's probably smart enough to do that too He's he's 33 and you know, he's and you wonder if his knees are dust So it's a you know, what what do you make of this? Who's the who's the I guess I'd ask is who's your take is the safest fantasy player Outside of scataboo because I think we know that that's clear Who's the safest player in the passing game? Who's the best boom bust option in terms of highest ceiling and then who's the guy that you're like? I don't even want to go near. Yeah, that's a good question. I would probably say Isaiah likely is the one I Feel safest about I mean they went out and got him They think very highly of him. I think he's the safest because I think he's gonna he's gonna play a bullet of snaps to That's a huge one, right? What are they go 12 13 11? I mean he has a role on every personnel grouping That's a big one He's a ton of ability post catch above the rim. He could be I mean if you're like Isaiah likely is a top 5 10 in the fantasy this year I'm like, yeah, I probably checks out like that. That's a that's in the wrong possibilities I mean, I feel pretty good about that and pretty safe about where he is um We talk about who's the biggest boom bust is probably Malik neighbors because we just don't know right We've heard a lot of conflicting reports revolving around his health Matt you and I've talked At nauseam about what the injuries and the multiligament nature beams for recovery and the fact of the matter is He likely will not be at 100% until the 2027 season That is I feel good about that from a probability standpoint Um, unless he is a complete freak of nature in terms of recovery, which he very well could be even we've seen Adrian Peterson kind of do that as well um In the past and some others but realistically like the nature of his injury was Pretty grim. So we're looking at a longer longer leash in terms of recovery um I would say You know 16 months until he's normal in terms of his speed power is really to change direction And have confidence um in his surgical limb and that's a that's What do you generous I'd say closer to 20 months for him to feel like extremely good like back to all pro form Um, but I don't think he's the same player this year that being said it's like you know Who else in that offense do you feel good about? I mean, I don't really feel good about really anyone that's not camscataboo or is he likely? Yeah The Arnold Mooney is gonna be you know He's in a flutter on the league for us for his career as The like a mark has vowed that skatling type player a little more talent and versatility there, but He's in a bounce round teams rest of his career, right? I don't think he's gonna be a 100 plus target guy um You know, I don't usually smith shoes to know. Thank you. Oh, they'll back him junior No, thank you Malik and I field is probably the one I would say if being a little juice in that room if things start off pretty rough for that giant team and week Nafers isn't gonna be ready until November or whatever He's probably the one I would be like all right. I'd like to give him some more looks because I think he offers you long term role potential Like if you have a trio of a health and league neighbors Isaiah likely and Malachi field you could do worse um long term. I think it really all too depends on How dark there's a play and structure I think the issue is We love players like dark Because they play with their hair on fire They make big time throws at times, but they Problems play with the structure. I mean, I like and Dart to Blake Bordles like they're pretty similar players Blake Bordles would play off quarterback like he was not a bad player but They both play with their hair on fire. They they don't get out of the room way at times and you know Dart just sometimes wants to Beath cam scataboo at first of whatever reason like Like he cam scataboo like body more of said the jacks dart and then it's like a like oh my gosh You just try to run over a defensive tackle. I don't know why you did that. Yeah, but that's the thing that's tougher is like He has a time to tell and he can throw every quadrant Put the timing-based stuff. I think with naggy system to like It's a it's gonna be totally different and I don't know How much leeway he's gonna have the to be his own player and a lot of that might be naggy too I mean naggy's got to make a lot of changes if he wants to go out as an OC like Like the mahogal splits from be enemy to naggy are staggering. Yeah, right? And I think that's the tougher thing is you know, Andy Riezy's gotten older Like you can tell like he doesn't want to call the offense with the enemy He was comfortable with the enemy just do it in Because he could call it a high level or any sees the game really wow regardless So you think of him as a person's a human he's a great offensive coordinator naggy Not really like no there's a reason Bill laser had to take over play calling when He was at the barracks like that happened at the end of his tenor people forget that Going in the bear stains playoff game Bill laser was called plays and they came out and publicly set it but It's because and Aggies had some glaring inefficiencies. He hasn't gotten out of his own way. So that's often when you talk about projecting it offends, when there's a kind of a question mark at both quarterback and play collar. So I think that's where you gotta start, see how it goes. Preseason will be interesting to see how dark is kind of getting ingrained into naggy systems and seeing if he's doing well with it. If he's not, then I think it's gonna be a little bit bumpy of a ride than you'd hope. - Obviously, I'm no quarterback coach, but as someone who we study quarterbacks a lot, he studied their games, watch a lot of tape with them. So when I hear in OTAs that the way they're trying to teach him to stay with his instructor is to blow whistle and the play when he steps outside the pocket, to me feels like that you are addressing the symptom but not the root problem. - Yeah, the cause, yeah. And that to me is scary because he's not gonna, I don't think he's, this is not helping the cause. Now if there's a lot more going on in the classroom with the cause, that may prove helpful, but I doubt it. Like I think that you really, there's gotta be a lot of structure on, how do we get him to climb? How do we, you know, how do we work on ways for him on every play to climb and make a throw that's efficient like with, and doesn't do what Kyle and Murray chooses to do a lot, you know? And that's where I'm afraid that Dart is trending here. - I agree. Yeah, Kyle and Murray's actually probably, I'd say that's the best comparable. I would say like that's in the NFL right now because Kyle and Murray is a massive fan base. For whatever reason, like, I love Murray is beloved. Like he's just, I can we've talked about this like, there's crazy that you put in Jocolibra set and the offense looks 10 times better. Like that's not, that's the indictment that Kyle and Murray made. Like that's not good. And then I don't know if it's worse 'cause you know, you got a JJ McCarthy and like, brother, if you can't beat out JJ McCarthy right now, like, I don't know. Like, we might be close to toast, but yeah, it's tough, man. I mean, Jackson Dart has a lot to figure out. And it's just a hot, it's not the best situation for Dart too because, you know, very run centric, it's gonna be your best playmaker is a year away from being 100% healthy. Your second best playmaker is a tight end who was the number four option on his own offense in Ravenland. So it's like, it's not great. So yeah, it's gonna be interesting to see what the Jackson Dart show looks like. - Yeah, to me, it's like the best thing that could possibly happen to me would be that you, you know, neighbors won't be ready for the entire year and just shut it down. Or he plays like eight games and to begin with, I mean, I don't know, I'll put it this way. The way I have it projected right now for folks is, I do have Isaiah likely at 90 targets and that leads the team. And I've baked in a lot of, there's so many players that it's so cloudy that there are a lot of players getting more targets, projected them in June than what will realistically pan out. And then when they, when I cut those targets, the guys that are the main guys will get those, right? So, likely is at 90, I have neighbors at 82 and playing eight games, but I don't think he's gonna be on a 10 target per game pace if he's not really fully healthy. So I'm really projected what I think is an aggressive upside for him with just eight games played. It's more likely he's gonna get like six to seven targets a game rather than the 10 that he got in his first year. For 10 plus. So I think 82's a little high, but then after that, like this, I have Darius Slate and Darno Mooney and Calvin Austin somewhere between 50 and 60 targets, each of them. We know that's gonna change dramatically. So you can see that I'm just like, when you look at projections like that, it should tell you Matt doesn't know what the fuck these guys are gonna get right now. - Look, he's in his foot, but coy. - We're in a game. - No one's gonna know. - We're in a game. - So we're in a game. - Exactly. - You know. - We're hedging until we find out more with time. And that's kind of how that looks. So yeah, the giants are a mess. Contingency wise, I still think Calvin Austin is a better player than what we saw on Pittsburgh, because Arthur certainly does not do great job with his personnel. And with the moments that we did see Austin get his opportunities, he played reasonably well. - Yeah. - And I think that he could grow into a great role. Like if, if Dable didn't get Wandaile, and which we knew that was gonna happen, but like, if somehow he didn't, and he got Calvin Austin, I would have been bullish on Calvin Austin getting over 100 targets. That's a big role in table systems, so for sure. - Yeah. All right, so enough of the giants. Let's wrap this up with some more fun stuff, which is rookies we think are going to get more opportunities than we thought. - Yeah, at the end of April. - Yeah, I think probably my first one is John Strypling. I think, obviously, we talked about him pretty significantly, like pre-imposed draft, but I mean, remember the tree, but big time upside has a post catch track. I mean, 7.3 yards after catch per reception is an exceptional number for a guy of his size. Then obviously, the strong blocker fills that John Jennings role really well. I compared him to John Jennings when he was coming out, and now with him going to 49er land, being the first pick in the second round, the fact that they didn't trade that pick, which is a pretty premium position, right? You hold a lot of control with the number one pick in the second round. So not trade that means that they have a significant role for him planned for this year. And you look at, all right, your best weapons are all 30 or over, essentially. McCaffrey, 30 years old. Mike Evans, gonna be 33 this year. Kittle, 33 years old. The next element of the Ford Outer's Offense to grow with Brock Birdie, you have to think, have McCaffrey gets a little older here. How many years can you put up the snap share that he is? 'Cause when he's on the field, like having him on the field as a threat is so damning the defenses. Like it really messes with defensive quarters 'cause you could do so much of Christian McCaffrey. You can hurt you in a ton of different ways as he gets older that threat will fade a bit. So you have to have other options. No brand naïve, obviously. Ricky Peer saw as an instrument, but we haven't seen a healthy Ricky Peer saw ever. At Florida, we haven't seen a league. So now you have Strublin, who can play a role where you're like at the high end, similar style player to an AJ Brown. Not that he is AJ Brown, but that's the style of player from a route-treat perspective, size perspective you're looking at, that what he could do in that type of system, right? Will he be AJ Brown? Probably not. There's only one of those. But if he turns into a DK McCaff type producer, that makes sense to me. And I think that that could very well happen as early as 27 when Mike Evans might not be there any longer. George Kittle might not be in the league if he is. He's 34 coming off, still a rupture to kill ease. So I don't know what kind of impact he's gonna make in the passing game like he did in the past. So that's an interesting one. Obviously, of Christian Kirk there, but I don't really know what type of role Christian Kirk is gonna play probably slot only like he has most of his career. But Strublin, he's gonna see 12 and 13 personnel. Like he's the one that makes the most sense there because of how good he is in proficiently. He's the blocker. So what a John Jennings. So that's where I'm like, you know what? In 27, he might be pushing for 110 plus targets. Like, and with pretty still grows as a passer. Like that's a pretty big efficiency role in that offense that could continue to grow at time. So I think I feel way better about him most draft than pretty draft 'cause he went into the perfect situation. Perfect capital to like you're getting early second round capital first pick in the second round capital. I mean, everybody's clamoring to get up that spot and that are same. So like that's a huge confidence boost for a guy like that where you were thinking this guy might be third, fourth round potentially. But for him to get in a good situation like that kind of speaks volumes to the potential plane that they have for them. - No, I mean, I think that makes total sense. And I think, you know, Mike Evans gets hurt. They're gonna probably move, they would probably move Strublin to the outside or at least platoon him outside with the Marcus Robinson. and let him kind of want to. or not on the go there. So that's gonna, that would be helpful there. And you know, you've talked about it. If when an older player starts to miss games for multiple years in a row, it's logical to presume that he's not gonna finish the, he's gonna have difficulty finishing season's healthy. And that's what Mike Evans is after two seasons where he hasn't been able to handle. - The hammy up. - So that's a bit of an issue. You mentioned Pierce All stuff. I mean, I'm high on Pierce All, but I think the injuries are legit. And Christian Kirk, is he done or was it just that he wound up in a team that lacked a good offensive line and they had some young talent and they saw Jaylen Noel flash to the degree that he did that they're like, yeah, we don't need to renew anything here. - That's correct. - But it's, you know, if Kirk is what he was two years ago, he's an 1,100 yard receiver who can, you know, who can play multiple positions and give Stribbling a little bit more of an on-ramp. But I doubt that. I think that you're, yeah, you're looking at probably Kirk getting cut and then Stribbling getting somewhere like, say 75/80 receptions, probably 45/50 catches and we're looking at somewhere in the range of like 500, probably 500, 600 yards and, and I think that's about right there. - For his rookie season, I think that's it. You know, if you go, if you have a season, if you have 600 yards, you're rookie year and then you're coming into your next year with a 31 year old McCaffrey, no Mike Evans, let's say, and a 34 year old, you know, George Kittle. And a rookie, the rookie Pierce All, entering the last year of his deal, which I think too, you can just get cut post June and it's a $3 million dead cat. So they could just save, they might be able to break even on the Pierce All contract in that capacity. So I mean, yeah, he could have a super sizeable roguel going into 27, you could very well see that. And that's an important part about it 'cause you have the continuity with the, you know, quarterback and coordinator. I mean, I preach all the time about the one thing that's super important, the NFL is continuity, right? Do you have that with your playmakers and your quarterback and your coordinator, if you do, then that could be a bigger role for seasons that come absolutely. - So I'm gonna roll with Antonio Williams in Washington as a guy, I think we're gonna see. Okay, better than what people expect. Now, I know that Washington is flirting with IUK. They're flirting with DeAndre Hopkins. They're talking about just about anybody that's coming off the street to contribute. And I understand that. But I also see Jaden Daniel stepping into the order of reps and getting and cutting in front of the second and third quarterbacks whenever Antonio Williams is running certain looks because he wants to get rapport with Antonio Williams early. I see Williams is kind of a Jaden Reed type of player. Maybe not as good as Reed as a flanker type, but I also see how Williams could wind up being the third and most targeted player on this team, depending on how well Chigokonco and Daniels work out. Okay. - Yeah. So there's a lot of fluidity here with this offense, but I think that with Williams, you could see a broad enough range because, looks and Traylon Burke's, he's a big athlete. - It's a good story. - That's what Traylon Burke's is a good story. - Yeah, that's it. Luke McCaffrey, I mean, if he's like Ed, like his dad Ed, maybe in two years he'll be on a team and then becoming like gradually growing his way into a pro bowl season or two, but I'm not projecting that. I think that Luke is probably a fourth or fifth receiver in his career in the NFL, likely where it'll be. - That's fair. - And so Williams is the one who can make contested grabs. He can wind downfield. He's at his best in the middle of the field. He can give you yards after the catch. He's a little rugged. He's got some burst to him. So I could see where Antonio Williams could be in the range of 80 to 100 targets and somewhere between 55 and 70 receptions and maybe get to about 650 to 750 yards and five touchdowns. That's the, to me that's the upside with that. So I'm kind of, I could see how that's necessary because then you look at these older players. We don't know what I, you really, where he's at. Like it is Ed with his knee. (laughing) - Yeah, like you're gonna bet on, like you're gonna bet on someone who's isn't played in two years. - Yeah. - Like that's where I'm at. Like for me, like I have, I have Antonio Williams as the first player I draft in the second round or I'll be drafts right now, the first. And the reason is McClaurnd just turned 31, right? He's at the back end of his career. He was pacing for 989 yards before the injury. So it's not like you're getting 20, 22 scary Terry, right? You're not getting high end, Pro Bowl scary Terry. And the commuters didn't even have an 800 yard receiver last year. So it's like, you know, no zackers or if you do bring him back in any capacity, still free agent, you're getting, you know, post ACL zackers. You're getting scary Terry coming off an injury at 31. Like you're not worried about Chica Conquo really absorbing 110 20 targets. You know, I mean, there's not really a three level option on that in that offense. So Antonio Williams to me makes a ton of sense for the future of J Daniels, because you need someone for him to grow with and it ain't going to be brand naive. Like brand naive, if he comes back, I'd be shocked if he's like 50% of what he was. And if that's the case and he's probably a wide receiver three on that a foul offense, he was a Pro Bowl caliber player. But are you really getting that right now where he's two years removed? It hasn't played it down in that time. So that's kind of the big question is, you know, like they don't have anybody there. You know, they're going to sign like a keen now and are they going to, you know, bring back Debo? Right. Those are things we don't know because those guys are free agents. And but there's no one there and scary. Terri, he isn't really scary in terms of like being a true, like 1100 year guy anymore. Like I don't know if he has that 31 coming off an injury. So you're going to need someone who's the safety blanket. Not used to be Zach Hertz for J. Daniels. So it's like, that makes sense to be Williams. That's a role you can play. You mentioned J. Daniels. A comparable one, I think that's extremely valid. And I think that could be, you know, the safety blanket there for for Daniels and you can kind of grow into more on multiple levels for sure. Yeah, I think for McLaren 1100 yards is the absolute ceiling for him. And it would have to be because this offensive line is just mowing people down the run game. And Daniels and him are connecting on play action passes that just, you know, that that that works that well for them. But I think that you're right. It's that's a tough ceiling. I'm going to I'll kick it off with a running back. I'm sure you got another running back to or maybe another player. Yeah, go home. Nick Singleton. OK. OK. I love Ty Shea Spears as a player on film. I hate that he has two bad knees and the tights are alive. And the tights just absolute. Are they bad if they're not there? There's no no ACLs. So can it be bad ACLs? Don't think so. I don't think so. I mean, look at what for highs ward. I mean, why can't it work for a Nick's forward? If I remember a guard, I remember. So listen, you know, there's hope. But apparently the Titans are just either either they know or they're just closing their eyes, shaking their head, going, no, we are not given this guy more, more touches than, then, you know, situational opportunities. Maybe a little bit of a split. But we already drafted Nick Singleton, because Pollard's 29, you know, both those got, you know, we look at it that way. I could see how Singleton kind of warms his way into a rotation year one. And they just go and ends up growing in opportunity as the year goes on. And next time you know, we'll be talking this time next year. Well, you know, Nick Singleton for the past for the final seven weeks of the season was running back 23. You know, I mean, I think. that that's the kind of story that could happen. - You're sure, Versaingleton, how about you? - Gosh, I'll say, Jermu Bernard's obviously I think, I think, 'cause we've talked about him a lot, and McCarthy's, basically how he likes to use slot receivers in the Mokai lemon and all that. But I'll say Demon Clayborn, but because early reviews of "Out of Camp" are, I hate the blurb, like, "Jermior Gibbs" ask, oh my god, I just stopped. But, are there reviews from "Campar"? He's a different flavor than who they have on the roster. And you're getting late career Aaron Jones. Jordan Mason is, if you're outside of the Shanahan system, he's just a dude, he's fine. But you're gonna look for a bit of a spark on that offense from an explosive play standpoint, 'cause the sides Justin Jefferson, you're not really getting that super consistently. Jordan Assins, a nice secondary piece, but you're not getting explosive plays from running back position. I think they had like one 20-yard run last year. That was it, right? That's terrible. So, entered Demon Clayborn where I had a pretty high grade on him. I think you did as well. And there's a pretty good chance that if he shows enough, like he could play into a role this year. Like, it could very well happen if he answers the season ahead of Xavier Scott. I could see it. But you're entering 27 as, all right, well, Aaron Jones is not starting in 27. Jordan Mason likely is not starting in 27. So, do you say, Demon Clayborn has a chance maybe, but it's worth it for what your ADP wise are looking at. Like you see that you're looking at super late rounds or you're looking at, you know, or late third early fourth round, rookie draft capital here. So, I think he's my, maybe when I'm circling a lot of my weeks, is I'm like, well, there's really not much there that scares you at this stage. Like Aaron Jones is fine, but he's probably gonna be playing a, you know, a more of a third down, like, passing game type role. At this stage in his career, he just hasn't looked great. Been injured a bit too. And, you know, Mason's kind of just a guy last year. He didn't really show much to be a lead back. So, there's a lot of opening there. There's a lot of runway you can see. Hey, this guy, you know, get him some touches in some games. He creates some explosives and then he's off to run it. So, I think he's a big one for me, you know, in the third round's my rookie drows for him, trying to, trying to stop up the value, 'cause something could be there for 27 for sure. Well, you know, listen, if you, your football guy subscriber, you saw my scouting report. I share sample from the RSP and some thoughts about him and running backs overall last week as my first cut check of the season, saying that, you know, think about James Cook, think about the fact that there are people who were like, I had somebody ask on X, and they did a great job with the question saying, well, I'm just honestly just want to know, like when you look at the metrics with the Mon Clayborn, his explosive run rate was really not very good. How can a guy who played four years with the speed and explosion that he had not have a good explosive run rate? And, you know, the answer I gave them and then I also gave to readers was, well, you know, metrics are trying to approximate what happens on the field in context. You know, some do better job than others, but explosive run rate doesn't really account for caliber of the defense and caliber of the offensive line and what's going on there. So, you know, you can have a player who's very explosive physically with, you know, in terms of the raw materials of their physical skills. And I prefer to look at that when I scout players. I don't look at explosive run rates at all. I just, I, because there's, it's too noisy with all the other factors that are in the pressure. And I gave an example and I said, you know, this is the first guy I looked up because I decided, you know what, I compared him to an aspiring James Cook. What did James Cook's explosive run rate look like in college? Worse. (laughing) They looked, they were actually worse. So, you know, you know, and they were-- Cool, so he James Cook, awesome. Yeah, he's James Cook, but I mean he looked worse. But I mean, so the thing is is what I, and then it just kind of goes back to what I've always believed as a scout is that, you know, offensive line, when you can separate the conceptual technical and athletic skills from the offensive line, you get a better idea of that player, regardless of whether he runs for 200 yards in the game or he runs for two. And I've seen those dramatic examples play out well for me with players, whether it's a mod Bradshaw or Joseph a die, or a bad forte, or whether it's-- - Yeah, since the line. - Yeah, so, yeah. So, Clay Borden, I figured you were gonna say it, so I decided I didn't want it. So, 'cause we both like him, and yeah, I just drafted him the third round today and the VIP dodgy. - Yeah, he's got a good-- - Might as well take the shot, 'cause there's not a lot there. That scares you, and that's a big one, right? When you kind of project, you said Singleton, that's really smart, because power and spirit might even be there in 27. - That's right. - And if they're not, what are they gonna do? Spend an early draft that got a running back, but team needs a lot more than that. So, it's like, yeah, you might give Singleton a run at, to lead dog in 27. Like, it makes sense with his pedigree, especially early career. When he was a freshman at Penn State, you would have looked and said, this is a first round draft. - Him and Quinshaw and Juckins were-- - Right. - We're neck and neck. - Yes, freshman. Yeah. - Yeah. - And so, that's the thing is like, he had the pedigree. I mean, it just, I don't know, the Penn State ecosystem was terrible. Like, there's a lot of bad things, and you know, that you can say about that weren't just him. So, yeah, I mean, that makes sense. - And then it was predictable. The offense was predictable, so they had to over scheme for Aller. And then they wanted to keep K-Tron Allen. So that means we're gonna carve the role in half, and they made it ultra predictable for each. So, like, how did opposing defense have not look at the scene and go, well, when they have, when they're alive like this, this is what we're gonna do with Singleton. This is what they're doing with Aller. And Aller, we know what they're not gonna do with him. So, it just eliminates, it processes elimination with that team. But, and occasionally the athletic side of these guys wouldn't win out. But, but for the next guy for me, I mean, I don't know if I'd say it's better, I'm gonna give you guys, I'm keeping an eye on because otherwise I'm just gonna start talking about guys that we know we like, - Sure, sure. - Who are probably gonna be there. But like, guys that like, I'm keeping an eye on, I'm keeping an eye on Malik Benson and Las Vegas because the, you know, I had a decent grade on him, like a guy who could be a contributor off the bench and with not far to go to become a low end starter. And the veteran receivers are like, this guy, we like how he's playing. We like what he's doing. We feel like that he's impressive. And we, you know, and there's hinting around that he might be useful this year. So that's a guy to keep an eye on. Running back, late round running backs. I mean, to me, that's when we're gonna start to see things shake up. Look at the Brown step chart. You got Quinshot, Junkins, you got Dylan Samson. Certainly Samson is a tough runner between the tackles at Tennessee, but it was a spread offense. He's a smaller, even more diminutive guy. Browns may look at that and go, we've already slotted you into your role and just stay in your lane. We're not even gonna bother. And if they do that, T.J. Harden, out of SMU, by way of UCLA, is a free agent. He's gonna be compete with Raheem Sanders. And I know Sanders is faster, but T.J. Harden's a better runner if you ask me. And a much better pass catcher. He has some great, he has a great pair of mitts. And then Devon Booth is kind of fun. He's also there too. Just because he's kind of a mix of Junkins and Samson. He's bigger than Samson. He's not as big as Junkins, but he's quick. He's kind of a shifty guy who can do it all. And so I'm kind of fascinated about these two backs and seeing which one maybe if either can win the number three job there. Everybody knows I love Miles Montgomery. So I won't go too far into that. But they paid him like he's gonna be the RB three. And so I'm totally believing in that. I would probably say after that, if there's after that, I mean, I liked, I want to keep an eye on Jamal Haynes [BLANK_AUDIO] Georgia Tatcher. Yeah. That Cincinnati backfield and see if he can make some noise enough to just latch onto a roster spot because he's explosive. Yeah, I love it. I'll give three. I think the first one's Eli Heidenreich. Yeah. I think he's just an interesting one to keep an eye on. Obviously they have two backs right now that are going to take a lion's share of the carries. But neither profile as a super prolific receiver, right? And Eli Heidenreich, that was the one thing you would get. Maybe he did it over the high level. Any passing metric, received a metric he was awesome. So, and I think it's a play reason, really interesting gadget piece you can work in an offense year one and they need explosives. And that's an area where I think he could provide some value. Caleb Douglas, I mean, he was the first receiver taken for them, which is super interesting because that was still on the board. If that makes sense, like he was still there and they took Douglas first. They prioritized him. I don't think he's great, but he's a good mover for his size and offers you kind of like a blank canvas. Like if he really grows in SlowX Offense and he's not a lot there, right? I mean, you have Atwell, Mollick Washington, like sure, you have guys that are like, you know, ancillary pieces throughout their career that are never primary guys. Like one of the three between Douglas, Coleman Jr. and Bauer are going to hit likely, you know, and secondary capacity at least. And there's like 230 vacant targets on that offense. Like there's so much there's so much vacant and they're going to play from behind a ton. They're going to be a basmol, like a basmily bad. I feel terrible from legalists, but they're me awful. So they're going to try to get some of these younger guys on the field. And I think he can do one of that pops if he, if he shows a more diverse skill set that he did, you know, in college. And then the last one is Justin Jolly. There you go. I really liked his college tape. I thought he was competitive after the catch. Super combative as a blocker. Like does contested catch receiving the tight ends in the class. Yes, absolutely. I mean, he was one of, he reminds me a lot of a day likely, a lot of a day likely, right? I mean, if you're going to say, who is the Harold Fanon Jr. of this class, I'd say in three years, you might look and say, oh, man, Justin Jolly, we should have been more in on him. And I think it's because you look at Evan Ingram, contracts up in what, 27. He's turned 33. So he's going to be on a dramatic downturn, right? Adam Trapman has a couple of years left. He's turning 30 and has not passed a winter D.R. Mark in his last two seasons. So you're really looking at, oh, man, like this could be someone that fits a role in that offense because then two court of the sudden is coming back, but a large cap hit at 32 in 27. So it's like, what are they going to do besides Jalen Lahnel? Are you going to try it out on older court of the sudden? You're likely not bringing back Evan Ingram. There's a chance that Justin Jolly fills a role there. I think he's a unique tight end in that situation because besides Jalen Lahnel, they're going to be a team hunting for explosive. I think he could be someone that fills a role and could develop into a pretty startable tight end. If in 27, we see some vacancy from Evan Ingram and also court and sudden, that could be a really interesting spot, but he's someone who's basically free in every single draft. So I'm gabbling up the value of where I can get it because I think he's a darn good player in a decent situation in Denver land. No, I totally love that pick. I laugh because our buddy Felix who used the Ice Depot, you know, earlier in the year, he said to me, he goes, I have a player I know, when I watch him, I know you're going to like him. He's just your type of player. And I said, who is that? He said Justin Jolly. And I was like, I'm sure enough. Yeah, he was right. Oh, yeah. You know, but just for the fun of it for the end, just final two, name one player who's just getting, getting buzz and OTAs that you're just like, yeah, no, no thanks. That's just OTA shine. It's not it's not a shine. Yeah. Try to think. Oh, Jaden blue. Okay. That's the first one in on a cowboy land. I think that's probably my biggest one is like, you're like, oh man, like Jaden blue. Like is he going to play a significant role? I think his off-field habits are still bad. That's why he wasn't like impactful as a rookie. And that was kind of seen in Texas too. Like that came out about him. I got to say Jaden blue because I think he, I don't think he's the long-term secondary answer there or potentially primary answer to about, Williams goes down. So I would say Jaden blue. Yeah, I can see that. I don't know if he's getting as much shine as it as maybe I saw briefly, but Jacobi Lane like, okay, sure. I mean, like man, he is the perfect OTA buzz guy because he's tall. He's lanky. He can make contested catches and he does have great body control. But his route running really needs work. And I've, you know, when you watch a game, you see multiple plays where he doesn't break where he should in the middle of the field and nearly gets the ball. It leads to interceptions and it happens like multiple times in like a gregious ways. It's just like, oh yeah, he's got a ways to go. I'm not there. So look, this was a fun show. It's fun to catch up. We got a good mix of good teams and bad teams so that you got an idea of, you know, how we cover the gamut. And, you know, obviously go check out Brandon Angelo's work at Angelo's analysis. Find me at Mount Waldman RSP, football guys. And we will see you in a couple of weeks hopefully. Take care.