Overtime – Episode #722 Anthony Scaramucci, Lloyd Blankfein

Welcome to an HBO podcast from the HBO late-night series Real Time with Bill Maw. All right here on overtime with the former White House Communications Director of Podcasts chosen off our Anthony Scaramucci, and former CEO Goldman Sachs, an author of the book Streetwise, getting to and through Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blaine fight. All right. So, this is for you, Lloyd. You suggested the current moment has echoes of the run up to the 2008 financial crisis. No one was more in the middle of that than you. What warning signs should we be paying more attention to? I read this about. You're talking about the private credit sector? Yeah, just generally private assets on the balance sheets of asset managers. Things that are illiquid can't be marked to market. Like what? Like private credit, in some cases like private equity, obscure securities that don't sell, that get marked to what the money managers are marking them to. But since they are private, they don't transact in the market. So we're really, you really can't ascertain the true marked market value. And there's some suspicious, some suspicion that some of these things are overmarked. This is why this should happen. I can't even understand. I can't even understand the game. Dumb down, actually. I don't know. I'm going to get. They buy shit that they can't. That could have been in Chinese. I know what it is. Absolutely. They buy shit that they can't properly. What kind of shit are we talking about? Okay, so they loan money to a business. And the business is private and no financials are disclosed. And now they're guessing at what the valuation is. And the markets are rocking and the economy is dipping. And they probably have the position overmarked in their book. And so when they start to market down, it's going to put pressure on the banks. That didn't happen before, yeah. [ Laughter ] Over two lawyers. Over two lawyers. Try one more time. It's like any priesthood. They have a priesthood. They have their own little language where there's a lawyer's or actual priest or financial guys. We don't know what they're saying. People buy stuff and it may not be worth what they say it's worth. Right, okay. Well, I mean, like houses. I mean, that's what it was the last time. It was like stocks, like businesses. I mean, you said the article I read quoted you as saying the people say the world's not leveraged. But that's what they said in 2008. And then we found out about there was a lot of mortgage risk in Iceland. Right. That's right. Is that literally there was? That's literally true. And it's literally true that people say this now. And the thing about a bubble, the thing about people being wrong about values, is that when you're wrong, you're wrong and everybody gets caught up in it. And then in hindsight, which is always 2020, you find out that everybody was living the same dream. That's the problem. Right. So you wonder about it. Okay. All right. Here's one for three loiners. Here's one. Here's one anyone can answer for the panel. The FBI is bringing in UFC fighters to train agents. Is there any value to this or is it just a publicity stunt? UFC fighters to train agents. I don't know what to do about that. It takes a lot of-- The FBI agents, G-men. G-men. Yes. FBI agents. Most of whom I assume. And was there any value to cash, but it's all like shaking beer with a woolen dog? That's more competition for Goldman Sachs and hiring interns, huh? It's absurd. I put this in the category of many things with Trump, which is like, I can't-- There's too many things. Some you just have to let pass like a cloud. I just can't worry about this one. I just can't. Let's say-- Do you know what that is? That's for the audience and one. The cash potels looking at the June UFC fight, and he's sending a little UFC balloon over to Trump at the White House. I could understand maybe maybe seals or somebody who's going to be involved in hand-to-hand combat. I don't think of FBI guys as needing to be, you know, this kind of UFC fighter. I mean, I'm sure they do get into some scrappy shit sometimes. But about you, some FBI agents retire, just like some cops having never fired a weapon. And having never had use for this. So I'm not sure whether it's not just performative, I'm sure it is. But just don't take it seriously. I don't. I don't. It's not real. Okay. Congressman James Clyburn just announced he will seek another term at 85 years old. Young. What? Well, it's young. You got the other guy from Iowa is like 97. I think Chuck Grassley, right? He's a spring chicken though. [ Laughter ] No, that's the question. How old is civil disservant, Congressman? I guess what they're really asking is, do we make a law about it? I think we have to. I don't know what you think, but I guess ridiculous. So what if in the next -- what if we make a law in the next two years, AI changes the game and then 85-year-olds, you know, are -- No. It's a democracy and people can vote for whoever they want, who's anybody to say that. If the Democratic population wants to vote for somebody who's 36 years old, who's to say they're not allowed to do that? I think that's right. One. Then make a case and you should have no term on this. I wish it had been the term on this. You've got to have some guardrails in my opinion. So what you just said is true to an extent, but then why do we have term on this for the president? Well, as I get older, I find a guardrail -- a guardrail premised on old age. Can I just answer why you have to end it? You get too much of a consolidation of power as a result of someone spending four decades in the position. And I don't think the founders want of that. I think we need a recirculation. Okay. Gas prices are climbing because of the Iran situation. Do you think moments like this permanently push people toward electric vehicles, or is it just a short term reaction? I mean, I've had one for a while. I mean, once you have one, it just seemed barbaric going to a gas station. You just never wanted to do that again. Yeah. It's just a short term reaction, my opinion. Really? You know, I think the problem now, eventually the technology will get better, battery lies will get better. But, you know, I want to get into a car, know that I could drive it 300 miles, and don't have to have my fingers crossed that I can recharge it and have it take two hours if I do. Lloyd, mine goes 360. Okay. Then I know to get away, I'll need to go 400 miles that day. Okay. All right. This week is the sixth anniversary of COVID. Happy birthday. I remember it was this exact day. It was on the show we had built. You were? March 6, 2020. We were doing the show, then we went to Craig's together. And you were the cause of that? I was probably the cause of that. You need to get cold because of me again. You got it later. You got it later. Who should zero? Was that the last, I thought we, today's March 13th. I thought that was the last show we did. Okay. Maybe that was the first show before. But it was, it was around that time when people were just, everyone was at home, shitting in their pants. Not, we couldn't even think of going near anybody. I mean, I never thought it was what it was. Okay. I'm not saying I'm noctodomas. I just thought everybody overreacted looking back up to six years. Any agreement there that we overreacted? No question also. We put up so much disinformation. Not only did we overreact the whole vaccine controversy made us more polarized. So it was a, was a disaster on a lot of different fronts. Well, what are your thoughts on the vaccine? Well, I'm not, I'm not a vaccine conspiracy theorist, but I will tell you, I know people that have had vaccine injuries. So I think they've rushed it. I was so glad to get that vaccine. [ Applause ] I mean, everybody, I am not a vaccine. I don't know. I'm a judge, but anybody who thinks otherwise is nuts. [ Laughter ] Well, hold on a second. It's not that I think you're going to worry about it. Well, for you, I'm glad you liked it. Yes. I didn't want to get it, and I didn't need it. So I'm not saying it didn't save millions of people's lives. It did. But if you think everybody who got it needed it, you're nuts. Well, I think, I think that there's some things that only work. If people, you know, there's, I mean, again, I don't want to say there's a, you know, there's a herd, you know, there's herd sensitivity. If, look, what's going on with measles today? People are electing not to get the measles, measles vaccine. And now, something that had really gone by the boards is now becoming epidemic. Because some people are choosing it's kind of selfish and it's anti-social. Because we as humans aggregate together and we pass things to each other. So it's a little bit. Well, that would be fine if we absolutely knew that the vaccine was safe for everybody. Or that we didn't, so some of us didn't want to choose to fight something with our own natural immune system. Now, there are one. There are pathogens that are probably out there where I would fight you to get the vaccine. That wasn't one of them. I shouldn't have that right. No, but the thing is, is that your infection can infect me. And so. I know. But you're saying you want to put something in my body that I don't want in my body? I think that's kind of been established for a long time. People have forced inoculations on people because society requires it. Just like we all have to stop it, red lights. But we all have to pay taxes. But it has to stop it. Everybody got it. They told us that if you got the vaccine, you couldn't pass it and you couldn't get it and they were both lies. No, I'm not saying they don't, I'm not saying they deliberately lied about it. My point is. You couldn't get it and you could pass. - I think they oversolarized us really badly. And it came out, in my opinion, with hindsight, without a lot of data, it came out very, very quickly, and it created a lot more distrust in the society. - Well, it needed to come out quickly. - And those vaccines actually hurt the vaccine movement that you're described. - I mean, they were working on it for a long time. It just, it wasn't like COVID came along, and they were, oh, let's do this MRNA thing. They had a lot of data. - They had a lot of data. - They had a lot of data on the success of it? - Yeah, they still probably are going to find out things in the future, but basically, you know, I got it too, I didn't want to. I just couldn't continue my life if I didn't get it. - I got it. - Yeah, you got it. Well, you couldn't, you couldn't go anywhere, you couldn't do, I couldn't get it in the studio. I couldn't go on the road, I couldn't do anything. I mean, that's a little coercive. But again, depending on how bad the pathogen is, I don't think everybody should have to, should be able to make that decision for themselves. - But you're in the flu shot category, which is more optional. But what about measles? Do you think measles should be mandatory? - I loved having the measles. (audience applauds) I'm not saying we should encourage it or not try to stuff it in, I don't have kids, but I remember just being home watching reruns all day, it was awesome. (audience laughs) No, I mean, back in the, when I was a kid, I mean, you probably got measles too, yeah. I mean, they used to have measled parties. They would, they would actually, 'cause you'd want to get an infection when you were young. - But they also wanted all the kids to get it at the same time. No, look, I'm sure that there are bad things that can happen from measles. - There are just some things that we all can give to each other where we're in a community. And look, they oversold it, obviously. They did it intentionally. Maybe they didn't know what they were doing. Maybe it was just not even negligent. We just didn't have enough experience with the disease. But it prevented in a lot of cases, and it made the effects of it a lot milder and many, many more kids. - Absolutely, yes. - And so it was a good thing, but I wouldn't want to go into a room where there were a lot of people that were unvaccinated because then despite my best efforts, I'm gonna get your infection. - So don't go in that room. - Well, who do I know? People don't self-identify. - I know, but, you know, if you want to lock yourself at home, then you do that. - I just think there's some decisions that we have to make collectively. - Other societies treated it differently. They, they, Florida is better than me. - Other societies, but they did, you know, and I'm talking about like, I think Sweden did it this way more and Florida, you know, other societies. (audience laughing) Where they, they, laser focused on the vulnerable. - Oh, and that would be better. - And let the younger, more, the people who probably were not gonna get too sick from it anyway, go on with their lives. - Well, you know, my younger son didn't get it because he was below the certain category, and I'm glad he didn't get it at night, so you know. - But, you know, like, you're giving it to toddlers and masking two-year-olds and, you know, some of this was just really over the top. But let's hope there isn't another one. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. - Catch all new episodes of Real Time with Bill Maher every Friday night at 10, or watch him anytime on HBO on demand. For more information, log on to HBO.com.