5: Our First 2028 Democratic Primary Draft!

I used to occasionally go on Twitter and say reply to my Slack cause you're so bad. I don't be like, "Hey, we need to get this done. Where are you need?" And he'd be like in a Twitter war and it's like, "I know what you're doing. I know why you're not answering the Slack and it's not because you're hard at work." Twitter is work. Welcome to Still Counting. I'm Galen Drake. I'm Claire Malone. I'm Nate Silver. On Today's show, the latest in the midterms horse race, and what flipper has to say, "Where's the noise?" We're going to include a look at Minnesota and other states where Democrats might be in a little bit of trouble. Then, the first draft day. That's right. The first still counting draft. Okay, we are going to be making our picks for the Democrats' likeliest to win their party's nomination in 2028. Galen made us do it. There was an argument on their production call, and Galen was making us do a draft. But this is a tradition we think of me, Westerners. I made the hard style. That's right. We've been doing this for years. We will explain the rules when we get there. But first, let's do a little bit of catch up on the forecast. And mustard too. Okay. What? We want more cast and mustard. I said, let's do a little catch up on the forecast. I don't know what came over me. It's more rusty this morning. We are. Yes. We are. Last week, flipper gave Democrats a 73% chance of winning a Senate and a 93% chance of winning the House. And pretty much the forecast is holding steady. Yeah. We haven't even entered in another series of polls that were pretty favorable for Democrats overnight. There's a Suffolk poll showing, um, just Turk up by four points in Iowa. There are Yuga polls showing Democrats winning everywhere. Although Michigan was close, and that one, which might be a thematic for the conversation we're going to have. But no, at this point, I think you would say polls show Democrats winning the Senate if an election were held today. Right. And there are kind of two ways that that could go wrong. One is that we still have a month to go. And the other is that is that polls can be wrong. They don't have to be that wrong for Republicans to salvage the Senate. The House is a whole different story that would require a big time polling fuck up. Um, but yeah, this surge since Labor Day, where it kind of went from toss up to leaning D in the Senate, maybe even a strong lean, um, that that surge has not received it yet anyway. Healing, barring any October surprises. Is it kind of Dems have reached a ceiling Republicans to reach the floor? Like what could anything happen? Predicting ceilings and floors as always tricky territory in our industry. But I can describe what has happened. Yeah. I think the post Labor Day likely voter model switch is fully priced in at this point. We've been getting lots of pollsters first polls post Labor Day over the past month that have shown significant gains for Democrats. It's brought up the generic ballot lead for Democrats to nine percentage points. We are seeing as Nate mentioned Democrats leading across the different Senate battleground states. So I think that is priced in. I don't think we're going to see that much more upward movement based on a likely voter model or something like that. But when it comes to Republicans floor, and I wouldn't even necessarily say that's Democrats' ceiling, the remaining movement is likely amongst undecided voters. And when you look in a lot of these polls, even if where the Democrats are leading, they're not above 50%. In some states, they are like North Carolina, Georgia, places like that. But in Iowa, Alaska, even Texas, 50% thing is bullshit though. But I think there's no, I mean, I understand what you're saying. But think about an undecided voter in a traditionally red state. Just think about it for a second, like Iowa, like Texas. If you're undecided at this point, you're clearly not enthusiastically voting for the Democrat. You're likely somebody who has traditionally voted for Republicans, but you're not ready to meet the switch to a 50% right? Polls differ a lot in how many undecideds they include. And it's not like polls are like perfectly accurate in the first place. They're just kind of statistical. Well, this is a very gateway looking at it, right? They're like statistical estimates or kind of mini models almost. And it is true that looking at the number of undecideds in the race can be important. Back in 2016, there were a lot of undecided voters in the Trump Clinton race, and that created more uncertainty and like flipper does account for that. But like, but you know, you can be a 50% and lose because the polls wrong or because something changes or because of the electorate's model incorrectly. Well, certainly. I mean, anyone who can just listen to last week's episode to know that I'm very keyed into the likelihood. I know. I know. I'm just a little triggered because like in the polls. You triggered? We should. I'm triggered. We should expect error in the polls. But what I'm saying is if you take the polls at face value, here's where things could change from here on out. It's undecided voters getting off the fair and maybe I'll maybe I'll have for sin that, you know, I have more my coffee. I have had enough coffee yet. That's what's going on. Okay, just like going back to the big picture of everything. I think overall Republican sort of seemed to be in damage control mode. I think that's sort of fair to say at this point, a month out, they appear to be giving up on North Carolina. They're moving one of the biggest packs Senate leadership fund is shifting money to what should be traditionally safe-red states like Kansas and South Carolina, cook political report, move Kansas and North Carolina towards the Democrats. Sabito's crystal ball. You're already triggered. I know. This is this is the point. So let me just because I know you're going to you're you're just gearing up for this. Nate, you took some shots at the expert Raiders the other week. Do you think they're playing it less safe now? Do the same should they always do, right? They always, they were waiting till like, why would you want to wait until the last minute to shift all your forecasts, right? I look, I like the people individually at these agencies and they have a good track record of what we would call discrimination in the business, not the bad kind of discrimination, but like meaning you distinguish relatively stronger and weaker cases. But like, yeah, they're, you know, the whole notion that like there is a Democratic surge now, no, the environment's been pretty good for Democrats all year. To the extent there was a surge, it came after, after Labor Day with this latest round of gas price increases. But to say, Oh, now things are like now things are just yeah, so they've been good. They've been really good for Democrats ever since Labor Day and that hasn't changed appreciably over the past like week or something. What do you make of those monetary big, big monetary signals from Republicans? It matters. I mean, we've talked a little bit about how much money matters in a statewide Senate race. It matters certainly less than in congressional races. And I think earned media in a lot of these states matters more in Texas. I would say for sure, like Democrats are almost certainly going to get outspent in Texas. And if they lose, I don't think that's going to be the reason why everyone knows who compacts and is everyone knows who Greg Abbott is, James Telleriko, whatever. So I think money matters. James, who's James Telleriko? Sorry, James Telleriko, excuse me. But you know, spending money in South Carolina or Kansas means that you're not spending money in a place like Minnesota, which we'll talk about where Republicans could be on the offense more. It's also in and of itself data. Like I don't want to put too much stock in Republicans internal polling or whatever. But if Republicans are spending money in South Carolina and Kansas, they're pretty pessimistic about, you know, don't necessarily listen to what Trump is saying about winning like they might be pessimistic. When it comes to those two states in particular, I would watch Kansas more than South Carolina. South Carolina is not a particularly elastic state. You know, who are the most elastic voters in the electorate? It's Latino voters and it's secular whites basically, college educated secular whites. And in South Carolina, you have a lot of religious whites and you have a lot of black voters. You know, the black electorate in South Carolina will be voting for a Democrat. They always would be voting for a Democrat. There's maybe some change in turnout or whatnot. But you don't have a lot of swinging white voters like you would have in a place like, you know, potentially Wisconsin or Michigan or something like that. Of course, the Jamie Harris and T's against Lindsey Graham. Well, how many years goes that? Like that was in like 20. 20. Was that 20. 20? 20. 20. Yeah, so it must have been 20. 20. 20. 20 was during woke 1.0. That was kind of crazy, right? You go in shit. Yeah, I mean, that one, that one is hard to imagine. But like, I mean, we get in this extensive question of like, how much did I trust the polls showing these radical things happening in red states? In the blue states, we'll talk about this, right? The polls look like not particularly a big wave. But yeah, it's getting, you know, I like this election more, Galen, from a pure Nate career hedging standpoint when it was just a toss up in the Senate. It's a toss up. Who knows? Nobody knows anything really pulling back the curtain to see how these mind works. He loves it when it's actually 50, 50, totally. But that's why I commit to like a model like flipper. So I don't have to be like, oh, I'm going to hedge a little bit here and there, right? Like I built the fucking model. And, and that's what it says. Okay. Let's, let's switch a little bit. And just, I think it's worth pointing out that not everything is looking particularly peachy for Democrats. We've talked about Maine and Michigan in previous episodes. So we're not going to dwell on them. The state we're going to discuss today might surprise people, I think, although we do love talking about upper Midwestern, Midwestern states around here in our particular. We got Michigan on higher Wisconsin, seeded at the table. Well, the missing, uh, the missing state is Minnesota. The top hat of the Mississippi government. Go for state. The land of a thousand. No, the top hat. Did you learn this in school? The Mississippi River creates a man on the map. And Minnesota is his hat. And Iowa is his nose. Anyway, we're talking about Minnesota. Um, don't you love me hosting now? Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is facing former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya. And at the moment, the polling average has planned to get up by about two and a half points for comparison Amy Klobuchar won her Senate re-election bid in 2018, which is the other Trump midterm year, by 24 points. - Well, also by comparison, Klobuchar is up by 8.1 points. - Okay, well, what do we make of this? - Okay, I have a couple of theories. One is that in Minnesota, it's still kind of, we still kind of are living in like in the 90s, or not the 90s, in like in like 2020, right? So you've had several events happen in the state. You had, you know, George Floyd was killed there, and that was the epicenter of the protests. You know, you had a lot of ice activity, including killing two civilians. You also had a really bad benefits welfare scandal where, you know, immigrants, illegal slash undocumented, we can have a semantic debate about which term is appropriate. I'm not a big fan of undocumented unauthorized immigrants. Let's settle on that, right? But we're setting up fraudulent businesses and like the amount of money lost to Minnesota taxpayers is very high, and that kind of all got like lost a bit in, you know, because that was like a big story and was like part of the reason why there was a lot of ice activity in Minneapolis, and so it got very messy. But like, but Tim Walls, you know, was gonna run for another term and decided not to, because he's pretty fucking unpopular. And Peggy Flanagan was, was his lieutenant governor, or is I guess his lieutenant governor. And so I think like that climate in Minnesota is very much like Democrats are in charge, Democrats have fucked up, and it's almost like, like Biden running for reelection or something like that. - It is a weird confluence of events happening in Minnesota. And I mean, I think you're right to connect that the scandal of the sort of massive fraud, then Minnesota, Minneapolis became this place where like, I remember these conservative influencers were going, and it almost felt like the, yeah, the ice activity wasn't part because in like certain sectors, it was like, okay, we have to break up sort of this massive you know, community-wide fraud. Anyway, we were talking the other week, Galen about, um, and Combincy, both being an advantage and a disadvantage in two different races. We were talking about it in Maine and Ohio. Do you think Minnesota is just these, you know, sort of special circumstances being tied to the Biden, Harris campaign or, or just an agate, our theory, like what do we, how do we look at Combincy here in general? - I think there are two factors going into this. One is in Combincy in an environment where Democrats have dropped the ball. And when you look at not just Minnesota, but even in, we're in New York right now, you see Kathy Hocal underperforming significantly in the average she's leading by 12 points over the Republican. New York is a state that votes for Democrats in presidential races by 20 points, and we're in a plus nine Democratic environment. So plus 12 is pretty bad. You look at Tina Koteck in Oregon, for example. There are places, states that are sort of losing population, have high cost of living. Things have gone a muck over the past six years in terms of crime and things like that, where I do think people are still skeptical of their Democratic leadership and in an environment like this one where there's nobody running on the presidential ticket, candidates, voters differentiate more between the different candidates that they're choosing between. And we already know that in governor's races, people are less partisan than in Senate races. And so, In Combincy is a factor here that certainly hurts Peggy Flanagan. There's another issue as well, which is candidate quality. Peggy Flanagan is more on the left leaning more progressive. And I will say, you see some trends across Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, where some of these more left leaning progressive candidates who don't really try to make a bid for the median voter per se are underperforming. And finally, I want to put like a database bow on all of this. Friend of the pod, Mary Radcliffe, looked at all of the favorability ratings across all of the Senate battleground states this cycle and found on average, Minnesota is the only battleground state where the Democrat has a lower favorability rating than the Republican. So just to look at one poll, the most recent coefficient poll, Michelle Tafoya has a net plus four approval rating. Peggy Flanagan has a net negative nine approval rating. So you take those things together. She's not necessarily campaigning to the median voter. She's representing an unpopular incumbent government in Minnesota. And you get somebody who's not viewed particularly highly. - She has, I don't know if you call her like kind of a hipster. What, Claire, what would you call this way of, what would you call that fashion choice? (laughing) - Weird. - Well, I'm going to cancel finally. - No, no, no, no, I mean, fashion belief rates are over. - No, no, I am going to tell you how I read that picture. It's a picture of Peggy Flanagan wearing a sort of large, I would say stylish glasses, and I would, you know, kind of door-knocker earrings that I actually think are native Americans. She would be the first native woman in the Senate. So I actually think those are-- - She and Marypell told them maybe. - Marypell, yeah, you're right. You're right. So that's how I would interpret that. - But she's got a look, right? - It's a very millennial cringe. - It's the one of my highlights. - How would it be a millennia? - The one thing I was thinking about was, I'm very, I've not been really tuning in that much to the Minnesota Senate race, and I'm curious if you guys think that national attention, perhaps a slim belt of national attention on a race like Minnesota, does that have an effect, like a positive effect for Flanagan, where like let's be honest, maybe the hardcore supporters are left-leaning, college-educated, white people, of which there are many in like the Twin Cities areas, like is that, is the nationalization of this race and a panic good for her? - Regardless of what I just said, if I had to pick, I think she wins that race, and it sure. - And look, I mean, the modest have her 87% and the prediction market's ever, but you know, but look at this point, Republicans need to draw some, not draw to an inside straight. I'm precise by analogies, and their chances are much better than that in the Senate. But I can see a world where, I mean, it's not the perfect analogy, but in 2018, you know, Bill Nelson lost in Florida at a time when Florida was seen as more of a, down the middle state, right? In an environment where Democrats won the popular by in half points, right? So maybe it portends something in these super white-lib states, you know, Oregon and Minnesota and things like that, 'cause you know, Minnesota kind of marches to its own drummer, and like, look, the point I was making about her appearance, and this maybe is harder for women candidates, right? Well, now I'm gonna shift my own way. - Yeah, let's try to ask them to share it. - I'm gonna wrap my own way. - That's some really comfortable territory. - I'm staying into like, making myself super woke now. But like, but I think presentation, like James Talleric. - Presentation matters enormously. Like, did either of you blow dry your hair this morning? I did. So. - I don't even have you. - I did it, but oftentimes I do. There is curl cream in it. - Okay, but you're, I think you're about to make a point about the people pre-judge or lay on to female candidates. - Talleric, oh, it's a lot of super woke shit, right? But he's a, you know, he's a-- - He wears chin-hoes. - Playing looking like a guy, right? - Yeah, he's playing looking like a guy. - And if you wanna, like, characterize her as like some woke out of touch Minneapolis hipster, right? Then like, then like, then she pour plays into that a little bit, I'd say. - I don't think it's fair to compare the two, because James Talleric has gone a long way to moderate all of his woke shit. As you would say, and Peggy Flanagan hasn't. Like, she's still very much for the progressive line of thinking. But to answer your question, like, is the nationalization of this race going to benefit Peggy Flanagan? - Yes. - It benefits her that she's running for Senate and not governor. And if you look at the date that most recent coefficient poll that I cited, she's getting 43% support, but only 33% of Minnesotans view her favorably. So that means at least 10% of the electorate doesn't like her and will still vote for her, because they just want a Democratic Senate. - Can we, I mean, this is the last thing I want to ask before we move on to the next thing, but, you know, these races where Democrats are struggling, is there any kind of, you know, 30,000 foot up through line, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, Oregon Governor's race? - Yeah, there is. And I think it's that if Democrats are going to become increasingly competitive in the Sunbelt, I mean, politics is ultimately like a capitalist environment where you have to innovate in order to make gains. And Republicans are going to have to turn those into competitive states regularly, these wider Northern states that are seeing, you know, one of the themes here is a bit of decline. We've seen population shift from Northern states to Southern states. We've seen businesses move from Northern states to Southern states. And, you know, historically we have seen more gains for Trump like candidates, populist rights, right candidates in places that are experiencing more of these complications. And so, I'm not, you know, all of this is going to get swamped by the fact that Trump is super unpopular this cycle. But if you extend out to 28, 30, 32, I do think long-term Northern states that are more solidly in the Democratic camp, become more competitive for Republicans. I mean, Minnesota has been on the cusp for so long, Trump only lost my four points there in 2024. - Well, I mean, look, I would not disagree with that, but maybe frame it more around like who's the incumbent right now. So like one interesting contrast is that if you trust the polls today, and by the way, I'm noticing a Minnesota to four years only at 42.9, so maybe this is a case where that undecided number being high is indicative of something. But Minnesota, Bluer, another win for Galen, Minnesota Bluer, or Bluer the Michigan by a few points, right? Well, LCIED is now up by 3.8 points, and flat against up by 2.6, right? So there's all this concern, which, you know, look, I'm of the view that moderation probably helps, right? But like, but LCIED, although he's very progressive, he is kind of selling like hope and change, whereas flat again is the representative of the status quo that voters don't like very much, and is also very progressive too. And so like, you know, maybe your candidate quality takes should be redirected from LCIED to Peggy Flanagan. Very interesting. We'll keep our eyes on that. Okay, we are going to move on, but we have a little bit of a, I guess an exciting housekeeping idea. We have a special announcement. We are going to be doing our first still counting live show. It'll be a crooked con in Washington D.C. on Saturday, November 7th. And yeah, you're going to, you're going to have a spicy and or terrible show. Also, also, you can't say that in classic fashion. It's what two days after my birthday, so maybe we'll be related to Kula shot. The first week of November has for the last decade included election nights, sleep deprivation, and then going out to a bar and getting drunk with Galen. Okay, but I can hear some listeners asking, what is crooked con? Great question. And why does everything have to be a con now? Everything's like a convention. Everything is a con. Okay. It's crooked media's second. Where's the conference or convention? I was about to read the sentence. And it is a convention. It's the, it's crooked media's second annual political convention where people will gather thousands of people will gather and D.C. to hear from potential presidential candidates, campaign strategists, pollsters, journalists, creators. What is a creator? It's a creator. We can ask them in person, I guess, and podcast host like ourselves. We're also journalists, journalists and podcast host and human beings. Okay. But obviously, November 7th is just a few days after the midterm, so we will have a lot to talk about. We are good live. You should come see us live. Yeah, this is going to be basically our first live show as a reconstituted, still counting. I think it'll be fun. I'm excited. Yeah. I mean, for folks who came out to watch us at the comedy seller over the past year or so, you know, we're still bringing it. We're still bringing the heat when it comes to these live shows. That's right. Okay. So come, get your tickets at crookedcon.com. That's crookedcon.com. 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Like a Zebiotic first, and then you'll have the energy and wherewithal to do all the things you want the next morning or in my case get about a night's sleep because alcohol do be disrupting my sleep these days. So I mean, wedding season, also dinner party season. Didn't the New York Times ever think about like dinner parties are declining or the Twitter thing or but what you're going on the right dinner parties if they're giving you. I mean, you got a zid. You got a zid where others sag. Keep the dinner party alive with Zebiotics. Try it for yourself today. And if you're unsatisfied, they'll refund your entire order. No questions asked head to zebiotics.com backslash counting code counting for 15% off your first order. Okay. Moving on, taking the reins. Also, because I've got a hat, we are doing our first ever talk about first ever things first live show. Now we're doing our first ever still counting democratic primary draft for 20, 28. Of course. Right. Go ahead. Yes, sir. Is this a question or a comment from the audience? We again, we had some discussion about because we will want to probably do a draft. We think this is actually a useful pedagogy. How do you say pedagogy? Pedagogical pedagogical tool. We're like, it's the way to talk about how politics are evolving and like you have two very open nomination processes and candidates matter a lot, right? But like, we want to do this now because whatever the last four episodes for the midterms are going to be presumably all midterms. And we do want to compare and contrast to how the midterms changes the outlook. Because the day it's a cliche, but it's a true one. The day the midterms end is the day the 2028 campaign begins. Can I also give you the scoring system? Yes, indeed. Please do. Rules are important. We should say we've been doing these for 10 years. Yeah. So we have. So this is like a long tradition. And we've been crap. We don't look back at any record. Yeah. Thank God. ABC erased the record. You cannot look at how high was Eric Adams in 2019. I never was hired at our first draft of this cycle. I think Cuomo was like a fourth-round pick or something, right? But we got asked kicked by. Really? Zoran. Yeah. Okay. But we were like, oh, there's a vibe shift, man. There's a vibe shift. I don't think I totally but anyway, we also at AOC very high. I made headlines in the New York Post. So anyway, here are the rules. 25 points for winning the nomination. Five points for officially running. Five points for surviving until the first officially sanctioned dominating contest, which I guess is South Carolina now. Three points for winning each dominating contest for Super Tuesday. Two points for each win after Super Tuesday. One bonus point for a whole bunch of states. You can go to silver bulletin.com. Actually, it's not that come. Go to silver bulletin. Look up what those states are. And then whoever picks third gets 10 bonus points. We're put second gets five. Whoever gets the number one pick gets no bonus points. So we're trying to make up for the fact that like it, it sucks being third in this draft. It's like listening to like a fifth grade boy explain the rules to a game that on a playground that he like just made up. And Claire and I are over here, like, yeah, yeah, we get it. And then this is going to be as tradition holds a snake draft. So whoever goes last picks twice in a row. But hold on, we need to we need to make room for Nate who has had a change of heart after a full decade on stake draft. I listen a lot of NBA podcasts, right? And they'll it's better for the show when they rotate through and don't do. Don't do snake. Yeah, actually in the editorial meeting, Nate just sort of tried to slip by that like we weren't doing a snake draft anymore. Just it was like a real like, but it was a lot. I think it serves the audience better to have not a snake draft. Okay, well, this is tradition. We're just taking with tradition. Like Notre Dame, we are a tradition of tradition. Okay, and I will say we're also going to get to a Republican primary draft soon enough. Yes, it's going to be it's going to be interesting over there too, maybe particularly interesting after we get the midterm results if there are recriminations and whatnot. Okay, in order to decide the order, we have our handy-nanny, GD politics hat, shameless plug, shameless plug, the the merch store is back, you know. Okay, Claire, pick a number. They will determine the order in which we go. One number one. Oh, Claire, okay, Nate, pick a number. Three, no. And let me guess. Do I get two? I think I might have gotten two. I got two. All right. All right. Three is such a bad taking this draft, but they're two good, they're two good picks, and every other pick sucks. But I don't want to spoil it. Maybe I'll get lucky. Maybe I get lucky. I think that that's a good take. That there are two good picks. Let's do exactly two. I mean, they're good picks like they're good like third round picks and stuff like that. I want to make this point after we let's let's all after we make our first round draft picks, because I think we all have thoughts about how this could go, but I actually feel like this is a weirdly fluid. It does feel more fluid than we've done in the past. But I am no fool. And so I'm going to pick Gavin Newsom as my first pick. Okay, now I have a good pick. That's a terrible pick. All right. Give us your give us your case, Claire. Okay, first of all, he's definitely running. Well, he says this might not run if Kamala. Okay, but this is this is where I am basing. So now, I'll just get into it, which is like, I do not think Kamala Harris is going to run. So this is my, my, this is why I think this draft is weirdly fluid and risky because there's a lot of and why we're doing it before the midterms, because I think a lot, a lot of the like top five picks could really change. I think Harris will realize like she had candidates turning down, campaigning on her behalf, just quite embarrassing. I think there's a general, if we're going to put it this way, vibe against an old candidate. I think she's a woman, unfortunately. She's a woman. She is a woman, and I think that Democrats are going to, and I say this in with my analytical brain on, not my woman, not my woman guard, not my woman brain. No, that I think that the Democrats are going to be less likely to nominate a woman. I just think there are a lot of things momentum-wise working against her, and though she has high name recognition, you know, she's run a couple of times. I just don't think it's going to happen, and I think Newsom is a really, he's been really dedicated to this run, right? He's been- Well, he's been dedicated to it. He's slipped in the polling quite a bit. I'm not sure. I don't think, you know, I think it's a- Okay. You're right. He has. He has. He doesn't, like, for Newsom, like, what's his case? So the other thing that I think is- I mean, I don't mean his case, like, why we pick him this draft, right? And actually, he's going to have lots of money, and he's polling pretty well, right? But, like, what's his case to, like, the electorate? Why would you pick this dude? So I think number one, because voters are often not rational beings. They are people who do things based on vibes. I call it political pheromones, you like the cut of his jib. I think Gavin Newsom has a quality which you need in the, sort of, post-Borac Obama era, which is, like, star power. Now, I think he's a divisive figure. I think he can come off his smarmy. But he's handsome. He's the governor of a state with a huge economy. He will make the point that- The state where people are pissed off at how the state is run, and it's losing population, a state where he has flip-flops- You're asking me to make the positive case. I'm making it. Like, he's kind of flip-flopped on a couple of major issues, the Wealth Tax, and then with AI regs, he's now become quite anti-AI. And I might be an advantage that this issue, which is going to become more salient, I assume, is kind of happening in his state, but like, but he also opposed some AI safety bills and vetoed a couple of bills and past many others. But like, like, I think Gavin Newsom is old news. And I think if Democrats have a good midterm, there are going to be lots of midterm heroes who's standing as boosted. If they have a bad midterm, then why the fuck would Democrats want to nominate someone again from California, right? That might be more of a- Like, I just think he's a weird, in-between zone, and was kind of feeling like a power vacuum when the Democrats didn't have a lot of leadership, right? Did a great job on the redistricting stuff, but that story is A, Republicans think some part to court decisions, wind up gaining ground anyway, and B is kind of in the rear view mirror now. All of those are good points, Nate. I think that's totally true. But I also think that he's a person who filled the void at a very crucial time for people, right? He filled the leadership void. He basically put forward this, like, we're going to fight a little nasty, we're going to get the trenches. He's always been one of these Democrats, along with Pete Buttigieg, who goes on Fox News, who engaged with Trump. I think he will basically say, I'm not pretty. I know how to talk to these AI guys. I'm not going to be holier than thou, I'll play with Trump when I need to, and I'll smack him down when I need to. Like, I think that there is something to that. Trump is not running in 28, and it's declining in importance. I think that a lot of what is left to be said at this point can be said by choosing other candidates. Okay. Gaelin. Okay. So I'm going to go ahead and make my first round pick, which is Donald Soth. I, who, who mags, is that how you say that term? What? Does he just mag? What is mag? Gavin Newsom. What is mag? It's when you stand next to somebody who's uglier than you and make them look ugly by comparison to you as a chat. I don't know objectively who's like better looking, but like, but like, if you want someone who's like a, a good looking white guy, sorry, can I make. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Um, not number one reason is that Nate thinks that John Allsoft is hot, but noted, appreciated. Um, I think objective show, I'm just saying many people, many people would say, okay. I am going to extend Nate's take a little bit, which is not just after they do have a good midterm or whatnot. I think Democrats are so tired of their own party. It's like the way I feel about my own voice come election season is I don't want to look at it anymore. I don't want to hear it anymore. I just want it to go away. And in that environment, I think people like Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker, a lot of these people are absolutely off the table. And I would say by 2028, even AOC will have been in the spotlight in national politics for a decade. It's a strong argument. And so when you're thinking about who can turn the page on the Democratic Party, somebody who was not mired in all of the different complicated hot takes of the 2020 primary and somebody who is about to overperform the partisan baseline of their state by maybe eight points, maybe even more in the midterm, that's John Allsoft on top of that. He's young, which is a challenge to the gerontocracy sort of debate that Democrats have been having and about government more broadly. And in addition to that, he has somewhat talentedly, adeptly maneuvered around the Israel-Palestine issue, which I do think will be something of a litmus test in 2028. Not because the larger general electorate cares about it, but because there is a strong contingent of the Democratic base that cares a lot about it. In some ways, that benefits Democrats, I think, like making the litmus test about Israel-Palestine an issue that most voters don't care all that much about. As opposed to defund the police, decriminalize, crossing the border, those kinds of things that voters do care a lot about, like I think John Allsoft can relatively basically give the left what they want on that issue while still pivoting more towards the median voter when it comes to how he's actually sort of legislated in Washington and what not. And so, yeah, that's my basic case for John Allsoft. And he's been rising in the polls. I think people are increasingly hearing about him and getting excited. He's one of these people that people actually don't know that much about, but he's been in the Senate for a long time. I think he's, you know, pretty liked as a Senate colleague. I mean, he's young, so he stands out from the crowd. People will, I think people will project, will and have projected a lot of stuff onto him. And like, I remember writing this piece for 538 in, it must have been 2018, but it was like the future of the Democratic Party is like, centrist white guys, right? And it's, and I think we were writing about Buttigieg. I think Allsoft was on here. He kind of straddles that boundary between progressive and centrist slash moderate as effectively as anybody in the field does. And historically, like, that's how you win Democratic nominations, you triangulate, but he's one of the more, oh, look, when he flames out and gets 2% and I want to look, I guess I was gone now, right? 2%. I'm sure whatever to slip ridiculous, but like he does like Obama, like tendency to balance those different wings of the party and he was, he was, would have been my number one. Yeah, I mean, it's also, I think, first of all, Obama, like tendency is everyone under 50 who's campaigning now tries to sound like Barack Obama, like that has really been true for about about a decade. And he does that. I also think he, the, the, the, the Natalie and his plane line that he dropped during that speech, however you feel about it, yeah, it could be a good tactic and very interesting tactic for our media age, right? And that was kind of, and he also does a lot of these like TMZ to me very obviously set up, like let the TMZ reporter find me and I'll, like, sort of stay on message it, you know, so he's doing these things where you can tell he thinks a lot about the media environment. Yeah. And he's been running on this corruption, like whatever, not to give this guy too much credit because I'm sure he'll go all over the place on the polls and right now you would take the field over any one particular candidate, but he's been running a lot on corruption, which links both the progressive and moderate parts of the party in a way that, uh, yeah, I think you were talking about that the other way. The best positioning is if progressives think you're progressive and moderates think you're moderate and maybe he can straddle that divide. Okay. Nate, you're first pick. Can I guess what the, you said there's only two good picks? Can I guess is a AOC? Yes, they'll see. Okay. I mean, great fucking value with the number three pick. Um, so let me kind of start out by stating the two reasons why there's downside to risk, right? One, like, her signals have been, this is not based on any proprietary reporting. It's based on reading other people's reporting, right? Her signals seem pretty mixed. And because she's very young, she could very plausibly run for, for Senate for the Schumer seat, whether Schumer is still trying to hold on to that seat or not, I think he'd lose if he did, right? And would still have plenty of time left, right? And then there is some risk where like, you know, if, um, El Sayed were to lose or El Sayed and Flanagan were to lose, right? You know, the downside cases for Democrats in the midterm is probably could still negatively impact the left. Um, with that said though, I mean, come on, um, she is the biggest star on the left who is not either 85 years old or her ineligible to run for president because it's or I'm down And it was born in New York. in Uganda I believe. The left had a very good primary season. When everything, but you know, clearly the Democratic Party is shifting left. I think she's a talent and politician and more tactful than a lot of people on the left. I think she will bring big crowds of energy, which will attract media attention and she's always been good at getting media attention. I think she has, we did a, sorry, a state, my colleague Eli MacKoundus and did a story and we're leading 20, 20 contenders are on AI and she is articulating a position that's less ambiguous and more pro regulation than the Democrats. I think AI salience will increase a lot and like to have any type of clear position on AI is maybe better than like a flip floppy kind of muddled one. And there's like not a lot of other obvious choices on the left. So if you're betting kind of like, well, the left lane is a, whatever, 30% chance, then I get a lot of that probability with with the most obvious figure on the left. Yeah. And if 20 people run for 20, 28, having a solid enthusiastic backing from one segment of the party is worth a lot of points if everyone else is dividing up amongst Gavin Newsom, John Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg and whoever else. Yeah, I mean, it's a, I do have to say, putting my woman brain on. No, I mean, I think one of the reasons why AOC is, and she's been very public about this, which is why I'm bringing it up. I think that I think the sort of mixed signals is like a real thing, right? She is a, I'm a little older than she is, but she does not have children yet, wants children, children take over your life in many ways. And so does running for president. And I think that she is weighing that idea of, you know, I feel like we often have talked about this of like, there are these moments when presidential candidates are like, this is my year, I shouldn't wait. Like I shouldn't do the sort of, like she, I think she'd win the Schumer seat, you know, yeah, all right. And that's the kind of sure thing. Okay, spend some time in the Senate, wait out this weird time and run once you're, you know, a little more settled or the moment has settled a little bit. The strong argument against that is she's a superstar. She could campaign with Bernie. There's all these things, but I genuinely, like, I think that there's two sides of my brain going. And one of them is kind of like, you know, the personal life choice is probably take the Senate, but there's so much on the side of run for president. And so often, like, I think it's a smart, it's, it's both risky and smart because I think there's, there's like a 60% chance she does get into the race. Now, I think she has electability problems. Like you look at some, there's, there's very few general election polls, but like, for instance, there are three polls that put Vance against AOC. And it's like Vance plus three, Vance plus two, Vance plus three. And Vance does poorly against like Harris. Well, here's, here, okay, here is the downside case for you. And by the way, I kind of have the same intuition as a man, as a man, man's intuition. You know, she does seem just slightly uncomfortable when she's out of her element, right? And you can imagine her saying, I need a little more seasoning as a statewide official, and I'm young. And so I can, I can afford to buy my time, right? You know, the other problem is that Democrats use a very proportional system for allocating delegates, right? So you can imagine this would be a pretty ugly primary for Democrats, right? You can imagine AOC gets some early momentum, right? And is winning the plurality of delegates and has like 35%. And then the other ones are split. I mean, usually the field resolves, right? And then let me tell you what happens next. In November, Nate Cohn puts out a poll at the New York Times that says, AOC can't win a general election. And all of a sudden, everybody shifts to John Alsoff. But like, I like our scoring system better. Or, you know, I think AOC is a better pick with our scoring system where winning a bunch of states and then losing the nomination in a way that really pissed Democrats off is like actually kind of a, a scenario that would be maybe bad for Democrats and bad for AOC, but she would back up points and by running. And yeah, clearly has a, I would assume she would have a high floor. Still counting is brought to you by built rewards. Here's a question. Are you getting rewarded for paying your rent or mortgage right now? If the answer is no, you need to check out built. Becoming a built member means earning points on every housing payment, no matter where you live. Build rewards can be redeemed for flights, hotels, lift rides, Amazon.com purchases, future housing payments, and more. Personally, there's actually only one thing I think I ever use my rewards for, which is flights. I know that's extremely basic, but I mean, I'm trying to go on vacation here. 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I mean, I'm just going to go, I think there are like six people that I think about go with your heart says, for your gut, your man's brain. Go put your man's brain tells you name. What does man brain say? My good brain says people to do my gut. Yeah, that was a reference to you being gay. Oh no, my gut says camel hair. That's probably the value picker. Bad pick. Okay, but I can't call it a bad pick because it's like every other pick from this point onward is a bad pick. It's just you know, it's almost like what if Democrats have like this really great November 3rd and she's like, fuck it, you know, anyone can do anything right now, right? And she, I mean, she is first in the polling by by quite a bit, right? And like prediction markets are like building in a big discount relative to like what a naive kind of polling model might be. I'm scared that she's going to run. I'm just saying like, I mean, like, hopefully I can get my next pick when we loop back around to my ninth pick or whatever. But like, I'm going to comment on other people that I considered here. But like, I mean, you can obviously read Silver Bulletin. I'm not a huge fan of camel hair. It's just political skills. I think she's been a little terribly clumsy on on the AI thing, right? She has gotten better as a stump speaker and so forth with seasoning. Can I, can I give some election general election matchup polls? Only two of them for Vance versus Harris. Harris plus four and Harris plus one. Interestingly, and then we'll talk about this when we do the Republicans, Rubio versus Harris. One poll is Rubio plus five. That's an Emerson one. One is Harris plus two for morning consult. So she's, I mean, the Rubio aspect is interesting to me. I mean, Vance, I think is sort of like uniquely unlikable. I want to say we've been ignoring the polls for the most part in doing this exercise. But for folks who are curious, Harris does lead the average right now with 26 percent across the different polls. Then Newsom 14, then Buttigieg 13, Okasio Cortez 11, Ossoff 9, Markelle 7, Shapiro 6, Bashir 4, Pritzker 3, Whitmer 3, then it goes on down from there. So for people who are, we are basically saying we don't trust, another we don't trust the polls right now that they're snapshot in time that won't be relevant by this time next year. Everyone knows Kamala Harris's name, like yeah, a lot of it has to do with with the name recognition. I now that we're in the second round, I do think a thing that just as I'm sort of thinking through when we're having this conversation and we're doing this, you know, sort of based on, yeah, who we think is most likely, we do often end up in these conversations talking about electability. Like I think these drafts sort of do tend towards, you know, where we think, you know, people end, which is like these more moderate. So let's talk about primary electability, not general election, electability. You have asked Democrats, who would you be most disappointed by if they were to win the Democratic primary in 2028? And Kamala Harris came out on top with almost 20 percent of Democrats saying they would be disappointed if she were the nominee. Wasn't she less popular than AI? Didn't she give us that fact together? Remember that exactly. The next in line is Gavin Newsom at 16 percent. Then everyone else is super low. I mean, people to just 7 percent Alexander Arcaso Cortez 11 percent. But here's what I'd say about Kamala Harris, which is I don't think her problem is actually that she lost in 2024. I think her problem is that she was the vice president from 2021 to 2025. And people remember how don't remember that period of time for the Democratic Party fondly. It's turned the electorate completely against the Democrats on the issue of immigration and especially affordability. And I don't think that Kamala Harris has good answers for any of those issues that are just gonna dock her, endlessly if she makes it to a debate stage and gets in the race. - And again, I'm not so sure she's gonna run either, but she kind of has like the opposite of the AOC problem where AOC, I think she runs, she has a good chance to win a bunch of states, right? If it comes down to a bitter fight at the end or at the convention, then, then, you know, whereas Harris is like, well, she's kind of like the default pick, right? If there's a big mess, and they need to compromise, they can be like, oh, Harris, wanna, I mean, like, if you got a contest, - I don't know. - I don't think so. I actually really don't think so. She doesn't have a particularly good track record as a campaigner. Like, there's been a lot, you know, like, there were a lot of stories written about, like, especially in her litter. - And there were factions of the party. Look, again, I think, I wanted to trade my pick. I wanted to trade my pick, and we're gonna have to have a trade at some point. But okay, we should talk about the calendar at some point. Like, yes, South Carolina goes first with people. Like, oh, that benefits the pick of Black voters, and right now the choice of Black voters is Kamala Harris. But usually the first state or two does more to winnow than decide. And I don't think that as you go to places like Nevada and New Hampshire, maybe Michigan. I'm not really sure, actually, maybe not Michigan. I don't really see Kamala Harris. - It also comes with the expectations game. - I think that's the problem. - Yeah. - If you underperform South Carolina, if us off win the South Carolina, and it was supposed to become a Harris's best state or something, right? - That's literally 2008 Redux with Hillary Clinton. And then Barack Obama and Iowa. - Does anyone know this one of the top their head with the new primary schedule? Is New Hampshire still second? - There's a simple, uh, Nemanik, right? - Yeah. (imitates a voice) (laughs) - SSN and M.V. You remember South Carolina and Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia. - Thank you for clarifying that for people who are not, grunt old learners. But yes, so, you know, I don't think that Kamala Harris does well in a place like Nevada, remember, in 2020, that was Bernie territory. Bernie Sanders did really well in Nevada. And AOC will pick up progressives and she also performs best right now amongst Latino voters. So that's a place that you see going to somebody like AOC, New Hampshire's Peabuda Judge Territory, but like maybe if Jon Alsov performs up until then, they switched to Jon Alsov or somebody like that. But New Mexico, Michigan, I don't see those as good places for Kamala Harris. - Okay, we are back to me. And I am having a little bit of difficulty choosing between, like this is the point at which I shift into, I stick with my Democrats really want to turn the page. And I shift into people who overperform in 2026 and immediately become, you know, potential contenders and there's a lot of speculation about those people. - Oh, interesting. So you're kind of doing like value picks. Like, ooh, they might not be who you think it would be, but I want to get them. - To me, the next choice, there's three people. This is pretty tricky. I'm just going to go with Peabuda Judge, which is not the thing that I just said. Instead, he is the person who seems to be, you know, Nate said that this is Kamala Harris, but I think Peabuda Judge is more somebody who has broad appeal. Very few people say that they would be disappointed if he won. His footprint is quite large in that when you ask Democratic voters, who would you consider? A lot of people would consider him because they've heard of him. There is something of a track record of people running for president multiple times before they end up winning the nomination because you do really need to increase your name ID and your, you know, fundraise ability, your email list, et cetera. He certainly has difficulty with voters of color and I don't think that college educated white voters will just sort of get their way in this primary. Although they are becoming a larger and more influential part of the Democratic Party as they switch from Republican to Democratic and become more intensely engaged in politics on the Democratic side, you know, he doesn't really fit the turn the page on 2020. He was in the Biden administration, but I think that he's less well-defined by the Biden administration. - You know, it's interesting because again, now my sort of like pea-sized brain looking at the order and thinking of the order of the primaries and thinking about the way momentum does really play into it. You're right, like the first two states, South Carolina, Nevada, those are filled with voters who are not, I would say traditional Buttigieg heads, but then you get New Hampshire. - Oh, it's fucking Buttigieg. - Oh yeah. - Buttigieg country. - It's a Buttigieg. - Big Buttigieg, I in fact have a vivid memory of standing in an uninsulated barn in New Hampshire in like, I don't even know what month and it was so unpleasant, but I was listening to Pete Buttigieg. And then I think people should know, Pete Buttigieg moved to Michigan where his husband is from. And Michigan is right after New Mexico. So it's, you know, he starts to get into his voters in Michigan and then Virginia where you have like, a lot of college education. - Yeah, Virginia, that counter sets a pretty whiff. He can overcome, you know. - It's the first two states, yeah. - It's such a meme now that Pete Buttigieg can't win any black voters at like, obviously it's a giant fucking problem for him. It also means the expectations are very low. Like he gets 4% in South Carolina, not 2% or something. - Also, you know, who really likes him? James Clyburn. I sat down with James Clyburn right before he made the endorsement of Biden in 2020 and he was still trying to play Coyle. I knew he was endorsing Biden, but he wouldn't say it yet. And I was like, okay, tell me who else you're considering endorsing if you're gonna try to play this game or hide the ball about endorsing Biden. And he said the other two people I would consider are Pete Buttigieg and AB Clovishar. - Totally interesting. - And I think actually his nephew or grandson was working on Pete Buttigieg's campaign in South Carolina. And there is, maybe there is not a strong relationship between Pete Buttigieg and black voters at this point, but there's a strong relationship between, especially older black voters in South Carolina and the Democratic establishment. And he is a relatively establishment he pick. And he could, maybe in a place like South Carolina having worked on transportation for Biden and Harris could even be something of a benefit amongst people. - There is a rise in homophobia, by the way. That was the question I was gonna ask next. How do we, how do we think about that? He, I feel like he goes, I feel like Buttigieg goes out of his way again, like Newsom, to appear on Fox News. He's sort of, he's talked about, his family was the victim of a swatting attack where they took away his children for a day, which was like horrific. And so he has, he has literal experience with, I think we can call that sort of a biased, based crime or harassment. I don't know how we should think about that in 2020. - So eight. - There is research on this that suggests that Democratic primary voters are not less likely to vote for a gay candidate. In fact, they might be even a little bit more likely to vote for a gay candidate. But the Democratic electorate has also put itself in the situation for a while of trying to imagine how other voters might feel about this person. To be blunt about it, it's a benefit to Pete Buttigieg that he doesn't have like a particularly feminine voice and that he was in the military. And I think these kinds of presentation, going back to presentation, things really do matter. I think when Gallup asks straight up, would you vote for a socialist, a Jew, a Catholic, a black person, a woman, whatever. It's almost 80% of Americans who say they would vote for a gay candidate in the latest polling. It was 76%. And so I think it's overcomable. I think people get really stuck on this whole, oh, will people elect a woman? Will people elect a person of color? Will people elect a gay person? If you are one of those categories of people that general election voters assume to be more progressive or more siding with the Democratic Party, more liberal, you have to apply cross-pressure. So Pete Buttigieg needs to be more sort of moderate slash Republican-coded. I think a successful female candidate would be more sort of Republican-coded. There's a reason that in much of Western democracies, it is the conservative party that elects women first. Because make it to the Prime Ministership or Presidency or what have you, because if you're a woman running as a Republican or as a conservative, that bias of thinking that you're more liberal pushes you towards the median as opposed to further away towards the extremes. And so I think you're going to have to sort of position yourself more aggressively, more median, more moderate, whatever, more Republican-coded, go on Fox News if you're going to win as a gay candidate or a woman candidate or what have you. I mean, with the woman candidate, you have the recent memories of, you know, look, there's a lot of kind of caveman brain instinct where, well, Kamala ran and lost, Hillary ran and lost, Joe Biden won, Barack Obama won, Bill Clinton won. Let's not talk about John Kerry, right? And so that might be a problem. I mean, look, I wrote an article a year or two ago called, "Is America ready for a gay president with more data on this?" One thing that should be pointed out about Mayor Pete is that he doesn't really have a track record of like electoral overperformance, right? With like Tammy Baldwin, for example, the lesbian center for Wisconsin, you can say she is one and actually overperformed her or whatever benchmarks in a canonical swing state. You know, if Buttigieg had won in Michigan, had run in Michigan this year and beaten Stevens and El Saegad and whatever else, right? And then when the general election, then you start to get a much more stronger electability case, but it's an unknown. I put it like that. (upbeat music) Okay, okay, I am I'm picking between two guys and I think the guy I'm gonna pick is Mark Kelly. Okay, you have to boring boring boring boring. Okay, let me let me go. Thank you. Thank you so much. I appreciate that validation. Sometimes in your fantasy world, I've yet to pick a kicker at some point in the. Okay, well, let's let's go through a couple things. Mark Kelly, um, compelling personal story, uh, Mary to Gabby Gifford astronaut. Um, I feel like I've spoken on this podcast before about how inspirational I found the astronauts earlier this year. And I think many Americans did two astronauts are still however you feel about the space program kind of like best in the brightest often military, super smart overeducated, um, he's a standby your woman guy with, um, Gabby Gifford, his wife who, um, is, you know, was for a time and was severely disabled and sort of has this lifelong, um, impediment, uh, or disability because of her being shot, right? The victim of political violence, victim of political violence. So I think in some ways he has like a very compelling personal story. Then he's also, you know, um, he's a white guy. He, like, he's just kind of like that moderate seeming on TV person. If we're talking about, if we're talking about identity, right? He presents that way, uh, going back to the primary calendar. I think Nevada and New Mexico being early are kind of interesting for Mark Kelly, kind of representing, um, the Southwest. And then I think if we're talking about AI, Nate, you just wrote about this. And I think it was a good point that like I was trying to think about whether or not I wanted to choose Shapiro or Mark Kelly. And I ended up going with Kelly, which is probably a little bit riskier. But it's because if maybe I'm making a bet that AI is going to have such a profound impact in the next two years. And that Mark Kelly has a more clear stance. Yeah. I can say I've been one of the more lead. No, he's been maybe too far pro AI, right? You could argue, but he's been, you know, authored as many pieces of legislation as anybody else in this race, potentially. And he's an astronaut. He knows technology and things like that. You know, look, I was surprised that Kelly was polling at like six or seven percent in the polls. I'd be like one or two percent. His name recognition is not that high. He does go on TV a lot. Um, he could also be an emerging compromise. candidate, right? Kind of like you saw with Joe Biden in 2020, kind of like you saw with John Kerry in 2004, right? Not exciting, but seen as competent and Electable and inoffensive to any major faction, potentially. I mean, he can make an argument, you know, to get a couple point moose in Arizona would actually be helpful for the for the map. I think this is, you know, what are the takeaways going to be from 2026? There's one of the takeaways could be what AOC offered, which is if Abdul Al-Sahead can win in Michigan, anyone can win anywhere. That was her pitch to say, this is a test for progressers. And if he pulls it off, we're nominating a progressive in 2028, there's another take, which is if Democrats end up winning Kansas with somebody like Reverend Adam Hamilton. Then they could say, well, fuck ideology or, you know, policy preferences or whatever, we've got to turn the page. Let's move past the past decade and try to nominate somebody who we think could compete in Kansas. Now, I don't know if Mark Kelly could compete in Kansas, but I think it's the view of let's try to sort of leave everything on the floor. No, I do think that if, um, you know, if Democrats winning Kansas and Texas with these candidates who are moderate, I think that kind of changes things a bit. It's like, why not? Hey, man, let's just nominate a nominate a monitor like I am, when a 402 electoral votes or whatever, right. There might be some of that sentiment. Um, but we should probably probably go through our remaining picks. Yeah, Claire, you have another question. Oh, is you have another pick. Okay. So I am going with Josh Shapiro on this one. Um, to me, he's he's kind of an obvious pick. Um, successful governor of a big swing state. Um, he is obviously very interested in running for president. He, I think, increasing to re-election this year, we should say. Yeah, the popular governor, right. Um, of a huge overperformance in Pennsylvania. And I think his, his weaknesses are kind of on the AI issue. I feel like we've talked about this on an episode where he's had a little bit of flip floppery. I'm like, AI. Pop on data centers, but he also can, I think like, you know, he had, he's, I guess we should point out there to, um, Jewish candidates on an awesome and Shapiro, which would obviously be first for the country or for the party and for the country. Um, So, you know, that's interesting. And obviously there was Shapiro and his family were victims of a pretty bad egg crime, um, where the governor's mansion was set on fire. Um, he had, he also did some interesting stuff post, uh, 2024, where he kind of, um, through some shade at like the Biden Harris team and sort of, um, indicated that he felt they were being weird about his Judaism. I think the Biden Harris team's, um, reaction that was like, we asked you standard vetting questions. Anyway, but like, he's done some stuff to like try to personally distance himself from that in ways that I think. Like every democratic candidate this year running in the midterms has been like, I'm not like the rest of my party, but I think Shapiro is a pretty clear like his strengths are obvious. And his weaknesses, I think would be if the broader political climate shifts because of AI. And I think that's very possible. But, um, I still think he's a good, he's like a solid candidate. I, I mean, I think you're maybe downplaying the salience that Israel will still have in the democratic party and also, um, like also if it's Jewish and Shapiro is Jewish, but like it's more like does someone get meamed or pegged as being pro Israel, you know, for Shapiro, there's more valid reasons for it than certain other candidates. And I don't know, there'll be a lot of people who will make sure that that issue was front and center and discussions about him, because otherwise, I mean, otherwise, I mean, he was a person I was considering. Instead of Harris, um, and if Israel hadn't been so relevant in a lot of the democratic primaries this year, I would have taken him forth. I think he's a good pick where you got him, right. I mean, the electability cases. So it's uncomfortable. It's an uncomfortable thing. I think for Democrats to kind of say out loud in a primary, but like that the two Jewish candidates will probably get like some heat from certain parts of the primary electorate. I mean, you were saying that you felt like awesome had walked the line. Shapiro has very clearly sort of taken a sort of old school democratic stance. Right. To the point where like, I, you know, I don't think he should be like, are you going to use a term genocide? Like I, I think probably politically, like, that would look like a pander almost right. And I'm sure we'll have many, many opportunities to discuss this, but anyway, I think that, you know, that to me is, I think at one point I picked him like with my first or second overall pick or something or AOC and Shapiro, but like that issue, I'm going to come more prominent. I think it's disadvantage to it, even though he's going to cruise to reelection. And yeah, the AI thing is, you know, it was pro AI at one point now. But yeah, talent and politician, good electability case. But I think it's a non-trivial problem. Yeah, I think that could be a much longer conversation. And I'm sure we will talk about it as these things come. My next round pick is actually somewhat easy. I think it is. No, it's actually hard, but I'm going to go with James Telleriko. Oh, interesting. And this is continuing my theory of the case that Democrats want to turn the page on the past decade plus of political life period. And if a Democrat manages to win statewide in Texas, that is going to give him so much earned media, it will be sort of crazy. He's also raised more money than God. Well, to be more exact, he's raised about as much money as John Assof, who's also raised as much money as God. So he's spending a lot more of his money than John Assof, but he could probably still reach back out to those fundraising networks to get a campaign off the ground. It would be a really fast turnaround. He'd be sworn in in January, and I have to stand up a campaign by something like June. But if people are feeling kind of pessimistic about their options, there could be a draft Telleriko style. It is not why not, why not, why not better? If he actually wins in Texas, I think that and he also does a little bit of the John Assof thing where he frustrates people's perceptions. I think progressives think he's progressive. And I think moderates. Well, think that he has either somewhat moderate or has become more moderate and also appreciate the religiosity, angle, the way that he talks about politics, through a lens of, you know, loving thy neighbor and loving God. And so I think in this round, I think there's a lot of value in someone who overperforms in 2026 and catapults into 2028. He'll be the fucking beetles. All the beetles combined to Democrats if he wins in Texas. You know, you do the problem where if Greg Abbott wins reelection, which he might not at this point, then we'll stick around. I might pick you in a host. If we go long enough. Okay. Okay, are you ready for my picks? - Yes. - Having drafted two women, I'm feeling slightly uncomfortable, and so we need some. (all laughing) Need some bros. I'm gonna pick two with a broier bros. - Okay. - I don't know which order. - Let's go with my bro. - Let's go, so with the ninth ever picked, I'll take Ruben Gaiego, and with the tenth or old pick, I'll pick Abdul El Sayed. - Bad pick. - No, I think these are good picks. - But he goes not a bad pick, but I think El Sayed is a bad pick. Like I just don't think that there's any way he pretty good with like the AOC in the game. Like I just, I think that lane is filled. - Who is the leader if AOC doesn't run, and we both agree there's like a. - Sean's lane is being talked to. - There are more people. - Yeah, rocon. - I'm gonna, I promise. - Abdul El Sayed has six billion times better at politics than rocona, right? And we'll have a. - And you can take that to the bank first. - I'm gonna take that to the bank first. - An interesting guy, right? But like, you know, it's clearly, clearly very, very, very ambitious. He will have a good rebuttal. Maybe not a good intellectual. Like if he wins by three and it's a D plus nine generic ballad I would write, it's actually kind of a bad case, but like I don't know that they will carry the day, right? And like, you know, he is after the big three, right? AOC, Mum, Donnie, and Bernie, right? He is like number four, as the most prominent left wing or left leaning politician, progressive politician in the US, right? You know, Michigan, if El Sayed wins, then you're gonna have it in private. Governor, probably, it's on the ball this year. And so you wouldn't have the telerical concern. And so like, yeah. And then, and then Gaiego just came out with a big economic plan today, right? Gaiegos had some. - Yeah. - Some accusations of, of having relationships with staffers and, you know, but the Mark Kelly case, where this is a guy who was overperformed in a swing state that combination of Nevada and New Mexico being prominent, he seems ambitious again. He had like the type of plan come out just this morning. He moved up on my list this morning because he has economic plans and talking about AI. And it seems like he's interested in running potentially. Yeah, I like these picks. - Okay, I wish I could pick two here because I am kind of torn between the name that I just told Claire, which we were both thinking of. - The backup if A or C doesn't run, but it is, I just, it's hard to go from the house to the White House. And so I'm going to pick, I'm kind of trolling, but I'm gonna pick our friend Mary Peltola. - Oh my God. - Gaelin. (laughing) - That pick. - Okay, well, it is kind of a bad pick. So I think that, yeah, now I was gonna pick Rokana. - That's good, we've all done that. - No, you can't, you can't, you can't. - We've all made like a bold choice. And then we say bad pick and you're like, oh no. - It is again, fully turned the page more or less. I mean, she has been in politics in the 2020s, but if she wins, there's almost certainly going to be a Democratic governor of Alaska. So in terms of appointments, she could be just fine to exit and whatnot. I think that she satisfies a lot of different, you know, I was saying, like if you're gonna run as a woman or woman of color, it is helpful to be more coded as moderate or conservative. And that she certainly is. And so she can satisfy Democrats who care a lot about identity in that she is a native woman and would be very much a first in so many different ways, but can also satisfy people who think that the Democratic Party is too woke because she has clearly, with her language and her policies, jettisoned the sort of woke ideas, would she get the endorsement of Planned Parenthood? Maybe not. Like given what she said about them. But I think like, this is more lab-brained. Like if you were creating a Democratic candidate in a lab, Mary Peltolo would seemingly be a potentially good candidate. - But she's from Alaska. - Yes, so long ago. - That's Alaska. - But the long flight and the fact that they have like six people. - The fact that she was so salty in that time story we talked about last week means like, I don't think she would want to be president. - By the way, we did have a Native American run in the last primary in 2020. Elizabeth Warren, you got him? (laughing) - Deep. (laughing) - Okay. - Oh my gosh. - Go ahead of that out. - Elizabeth Warren thing is more of a scandal than we'll talk about some other time. - Oh my gosh. - Go right ahead. I chose Mary Peltola. Claire is back to you. - I'm gonna choose Rokana. - Okay, Rokana, I don't know if I even say this derogatorially, just thirsty for it, right? - He wants it so bad. - It's so bad. - It's so bad. - Has wanted it for so bad, for so long. And like, okay, listen. - In this game, you get points for running. - You get points for running. I should say, Mary to a wealthy family, which is important if you're sort of running in like a long shot campaign represents Silicon Valley so he can kind of say credibly. He knows these guys who are now potentially going to end humanity. And I think he's smart. He has his own kind of like, he's quite transparent and frank in talking about running for president in the same way that AOC is. And I think that has its own authenticity, right? Which people kind of pick up on. Like I think he is impressive in a lot of ways. And mostly he is sort of, he's a progressive who also sort of can talk to business side of things. And I think that's a compelling case. - Yeah, look, he's talking about the issues that are rising in importance, right? He got in trouble in California for advocating for the wealth tax, which, you know, if you talk to economists, does not have a very efficient way to raise revenue and might be, might be such a legal scrutiny, I'm would, right? But-- - But that's probably a probable decision. - How's that right? - The decision that Gavin Newsom has had to flip flop toward, yeah. Yeah, I think this is a good value pick. I think it's a better pick than Peltola. (laughing) - Yeah, I should have stayed that one 'cause I don't think you would have picked Peltola so I can now-- - I 100% would not have raised some Peltola. - So you're fine around pick. This is speedy, rapid fire. - Okay, I'm just going with Bashir because I think he'll run. He just wrote a book. He's a Democratic governor in a pretty red state and Kentucky, he runs a Democratic governor's association in keeping with sort of chino-wearing white politicians. That's him, Andy Bashir, yeah. - Yeah, I know a lot of baggage. I think he's maybe too moderate for the party, right? Again, he could be a, what if Democrats have a really disappointing midterm and Elsa, you had losers and Peggy Flanagan losers, right? Then you're going to want to flight to safety and then safe white guy without the Israel issue, right? It's a little bit of the Shapiro lane. - Yeah. - Ooh, this is tricky. - No, it's lonely here having a third pick. You have to wait a long time. - I'm going to go with Wes Moore. I think he will run and he sticks with my general theme of everyone that I've picked in that he has not been in the public eye during Democrats. What did the queen call it? Honest, Herbulous or whatever. But I guess for Democrats, it's been a decade long, so decade Herbulous. He has been out of the spotlight for Democrats, decade Herbulous and could kind of pop up and inspire people. Nate, final pick. - We have a great team led by two men and three women and two candidates from the state of Michigan because Gretchen Whitmer is the 15th and last pick in this draft. She doesn't seem like she's very interested in running. She's retrieved a bit from the spotlight. She endorsed Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary, which I guess doesn't look right, although since, doesn't look good, although since Stevens kind of way of performing polls may read fine. On paper, she has all the credentials that you would want. Popular swing state governor, moderate but not in a way that is overly triggering to progressives. I don't think he doesn't seem that interested in the job, you know, maybe the kind of Peltola thing, but I really like this value with the 15th and final pick in the draft. - Okay, so with that, I'm going to read through everyone's choices and then listeners, viewers, you can comment and tell us who you think won this draft. So Claire, you went first and you drafted the team, Gavin Newsom, Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, Rokana, and Andy Bashir. I went second. I drafted the team, John Alsoff, P Buttigieg, James Talleriko, Mary Peltola, and Wes Moore. Nate went last and drafted the team, AOC, Kamala Harris, Ruben Gallego, Abdul El Sayed, Gretchen Whitmer. - I have to say you didn't win, Nate. - Sorry. - That's a fucking great, I completely, I think you're fucking totally foolish. He's a great fucking team. I got value with every single pick in that draft. What are you talking about, man? - All right, we'll see what listeners think. We'll see what the listeners think. But that is it for today. Thank you guys, this has been fun. - Yes. - What's your team again? Give me your team one more time. - One more time. What are you going to do with it? - What's your team? - What are you going to do with it? - What's your team in January? - It was John Alsoff, P Buttigieg, James Talleriko, Mary Peltola, Wes Moore. Are you asking ChatGPT who has a better team? - No, I don't need to ChatGPT. Yes, yes, yes, I don't need such a big deal to tell me how How much of your team sucks? - Who are our teams last time? - Oh boy. Do we really wanna look that up? - Maybe we don't. - That's it for today's episode of Still Counting. Listen wherever you get your podcasts and subscribe on YouTube at youtube.com/atstillcountingpodcast. We'll be back next Wednesday evening for another episode. Still Counting is a crooked media production. Our team includes Saul Rubin, Emily Four, Claudia Shang, Charlotte Landis, Reed Churlin, Johanna Case, Ben Heskot, Matt DeGro, Katie Long, and Adrian Hill. Our music is my break master cylinder. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the writer's guild of American East. (upbeat music)