Our BOLDEST Fantasy Football Predictions for 2026 | Breakouts, Busts & League-Winners (Ep. 2167)

This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. Tara Roberts here with Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson. And we are giving you our bold, yes, extremely bold, we did not hold back, bold predictions that you need to hear about before you draft. We are closing out draft season and we are heading into week one. D-Bro and Erickson, I will ask you guys, because we were joking on the mock draft show, D-Bro, about wrapping up vacation now and heading into such an aggressive workload. But let's talk about the positive. What are you most excited about for week one? I'm just ready to get in the flow of the NFL season, man. Like the schedule and what we know to expect out of every week. I'm ready to see games, like all the stuff we've prognosticated all offseason about what could be these breakout, these bold predictions. I want to see it. I just want to see it. Yes, I'm ready to see everything. I'm ready to be right and just kind of pretend like we're never wrong about anything. Erickson, what are you looking forward to? Never wrong, just early. Exactly. I'm ready for A.J. Brown to catch touchdowns from Drake May. Let's go. I'm going to see it Wednesday night, first game of the season. No holding back. A.J.B., wide receiver once isn't, is happening. From your lips to the fantasy gods, because I've got a dynasty stack of Drake May and A.J. Brown that I need to come through. Let's go. By the way, those sleeper notifications are going to hit like none other when those guys connect on touchdowns. There we go. Every big play, all 17 weeks. There we go. We are the group of three, pro Drake May and A.J. Brown. Looking forward to it. So Wednesday is massive for us. Now let's go ahead and dive into these bold predictions. We separated them out, so we're giving you a nice variety. We've got breakouts. We've got fades. We've got wildcard predictions. We're going to start off with the breakout predictions. And I have, and I love, spoiler alert. I love all of these predictions. Of course, you know, mine, but Debro and Erickson really gave us some great ones here. So Debro, start us off. I feel like I sound like a broken record people, but I'm, I've been saying it before and I'll say it again here. Parker Washington, he's going to be a wide receiver one in fantasy this year. And for everybody that doesn't believe that can happen, I kindly appoint you to the end of last season. When in the four games, week 16 through 19, he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game. He operated as Jacksonville. In those four games, he got six red zone targets, 13 deep targets. He soaked up almost a 29% target share producing 113.5 receiving yards per game, 3.78 yards per route run garnering a 33.3% first read share. All of these numbers are elite wide receiver one usage for Parker Washington. Travis Hunter is no more. Welcome to the defense. You are a full-time corner. Travis Hunter, not worried about you. Brian Thomas, Jr. Sorry. You got to deal with shadow coverage from every single corner in the NFL until about week 10. Good luck with that. Jacoby Myers. You're good. Solid. Parker Washington. Wide receiver one, baby. It's going to happen. I love it. It's bold, but it's also extremely realistic at the same time. I mean, looking at them, we'll know right off the bat, right? In terms of this, because you mentioned Brian Thomas, Jr. And the shadow coverage. I mean, it's just literally the most nasty start of the season for him with Cleveland, Denver, New England, and Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Houston. Then maybe Indianapolis figures things out as they get settled in. They come after the bye week. Then they get sauce in Indianapolis after that. I mean, just even Baltimore after that. Just it's just it's sad. So I feel for him back half of the season. Yeah, maybe something can happen. But Parker Washington absolutely taking control here. Erickson, are you pro Parker Washington? Yes. Pro Parker Washington. I was even considering making one of my bold predictions for the show that Brian Thomas, Jr. Is he going to have a breakout season on the Las Vegas Raiders in the second half of the season? I almost put him on the later part of this show, but I was like, I can't make it this two Jaguars centric, but I almost came out here and said, Brian Thomas, Jr. Will be the most drop player by week nine. He is going to be the poster boy for every by low article that is written in fantasy going into week 10 about pick up Brian Thomas, Jr. Because he's going to be on the waiver wire of every single league. Yeah, I agree. I do. I'll be doing the five moves to make video every single week. And I think, you know, around week four, I'll start spreading the propaganda of, you know, now it's time to put out those feelers because you just go ahead and roll Brian Thomas, Jr. Into that segment every single week. Exactly. I've prewritten my content here. I can get it done. It would be good to go over the year. Erickson, tell us about your prediction. You've got another wide receiver for us. Yeah, I'm also projecting a breakout season for a wide receiver. Christian Watson is going to finish. This year as a fantasy wide receiver one key and Parker Washington were my two biggest takeaways when I was writing up my identifying breakout wide receiver one piece that I wrote a couple months ago. Those two guys moved up the most in my ranks as prime candidates to make the leap into the top 12 for the first time in their NFL careers. I think that Christian Watson is a super dynamic wide receiver when it comes to creating yards after the catch and creating plays downfield. And that's the perfect recipe for finding a player that they can put it all together. Combine it with some touchdown equity. This guy can be a top 12 wide receiver last year. I mean, what he was able to accomplish after coming off a late ACL injury in the 2024 season. I mean, electric in just 11 games played. He got an all pro vote. People forget that. I know Justin Herbert got an MVP vote. Christian Watson got an all pro vote despite just playing in 11 games. He supplanted Romeo Dobbs as the clear cut wide receiver one in the Packers offense. He was wide receiver 17 in points per game, 11.5, 34%. Air yard. Sherry total over a thousand air yards in a limited games played. Also career highs in both yards and yards per route run. Low key target hog. He never saw fewer than four targets in any of the contests for the Green Bay Packers. And given the fact that Dobbs is no more on the offense, I'm taping Wicks is gone. There's a lockout of vacated targets and air yards. Top five in both those categories for Christian Watson to, I think, establish himself as the wide receiver one in this offense. And how I compare it to is the Jameson Williams breakout. From last year when he finished as a fantasy wide receiver one. Now, one of the big takeaways from that piece that I wrote was finding that year. Year three is mostly the common year that we see a lot of breakout players. And Jameson Williams, just based on all the time he had missed, he kind of was lined up for a year three type of breakout, even though it was his fourth season that he ended up finishing as a wide receiver one. Now, Christian Watson, we know his MO has been a lot of missed games through four seasons. He only played 48 games. So he's actually been closer to three seasons. Played given the time he's missed because of all the injuries and similar to Jameson Williams. What did the lines do before his breakout season to pay him a new contract? What did the Packers do this offseason? Hey, Christian Watson, a brand new contract. A lot of people looked at it and thought, man, why are they paying this guy so much money? Because they know his potential and what he can do when he's fully healthy and he's not rehabbing an injury like he is fully healthy, ready to go. And I think my favorite part about this type of bull prediction is Watson really hasn't been a buzzy guy this offseason. It really hasn't been, oh, Christian Watson is because it's been Parker Washington propaganda and Luther Burton propaganda. And I'm all for, you know, buying into that hype of training camp. But sometimes there are these silent killers like Christian Watson. And I think that he's just going to come out guns blazing against the Minnesota Vikings in week one with Jordan Love dropping back to throw. No, Josh Jacobs, more uptempo, more passing. And I think that Watson is in for a career year if he can stay healthy. So wide receiver one for the Green Bay Packers. Erickson, I love that you just brought up the Josh Jacobs stuff because I want everybody to be kind to rewind with me. The last time we didn't see Josh Jacobs gobbling up carry. And the Green Bay backfield. I just want everybody to realize that Jordan Love was key B5 and fantasy points per game that season in 2023. So just let that marinate more throwing from Jordan Love. All the Christian Watson you can handle. It's going to be beautiful. Beautiful. I agree. I'm glad you pointed that out because every single prediction I made about the Packers offense and Jordan Love and the pass catchers was prior to the Josh Jacobs stuff because you're 100% right. The change and pass volume to leaning aggressively on. On the ground game and being top five in terms of rush attempts was directly tied to Josh Jacobs. We know that's exactly it. So with him gone, you know, and the trust level that we have now we're drafting Marshawn Lloyd, the trust level that we have in terms of him making it through the season, how aggressively can they rely on him? Makes sense that they're going to have to push that pass volume up and we get back to the original version of Jordan Love because it's not as if he's been having problems or he's inaccurate and there are any issues. They just don't pass the ball a lot. So that was literally. The only issue so now we can have that happen and then there's another thing that I wanted to point out, which makes me, you know, a little sad that I don't have as many Christian Watson shares as I would like now that we can get this uptick in volume. They thinned out the herd and the receiving core, but the real key I think is going to be that they're defining the positions on the field differently. We've got Jaden Reed on the slot. We've got Matthew Golden as the X receiver and now we can have Christian Watson as the Z and we can get a little bit more creative usage and more targets towards him. So I'm feeling good about this one as well. I love. I love this bold prediction. I want to see if you guys will go with me on my bold prediction. You gave wide receivers, so I wanted to give a running back. Throw that in there. Jacory Krosky Merritt finishes as an RB1. This is the season where Washington finally abandons the agitating committees that we have seen over the years and delivers an RB1 with Jacory Krosky Merritt. It's funny because for as much as everyone talks about how we can't fade Travion Henderson because of his high upside in the promising rookie season, Jacory Krosky Merritt's rookie season. was kind of a mirror season as we had to Traviana. Henderson. It just happened in a far worse offense because he had the exact same issue in terms of getting pulled at times to have a more reliable veteran option on the field like Travion Henderson had with Amadre Stevenson. Henderson had 180 carries, just over 900 yards, nine touchdowns. Ja'Cory Krosky-Barrett had 175 carries, just over 800 yards, eight touchdowns, again, on an objectively terrible offense that was dealing with injury issues with Jayden Daniels. He just couldn't be trusted to catch or block, but that's okay because he understood that that was the issue and he reportedly spent his offseason working on that, and the reports out of Washington have made it clear that he has actually improved his passing downs work. Now, of course, Rashad White does exist. Rashad White is very excellent at pass blocking and receiving. That is his creme de la creme of skill sets, so the expectation was not that Ja'Cory Krosky-Barrett would go out there and suddenly in one offseason be better than Rashad White. No, buddy, we just need you to be passable so that you are not a liability on the field and you don't have to be pulled out in a one-for-one role. So now Washington can get a little bit more creative. They don't have to telegraph plays. They can still use White as the change of pace back, but when it comes to early down back, goal line work, and a little bit of added receiving work, we've got Ja'Cory Krosky-Barrett operating as the RB1 in an offense that will function better with Jayden Daniels back at quarterback to help open up opportunities and running lanes. Daniels is a very good quarterback. He isn't really a quarterback that's going to snipe at the goal line anyway, so those goal line opportunities will belong to him. He is, to me, this year's Javante Williams in terms of a guy that is going around round eight or nine who will be a lead back and a strong offense, and he's the guy that you draft as an RB3, but you get to start every single week once you get comfortable with it and realizing that this works out. So that is my bold prediction. Are you guys team Ja'Cory Krosky-Barrett, or are you more skeptical? Go ahead, Erickson. You're the Rashad White stand on this podcast. I want you to push back, and then I'm going to give some Bill love at the end of this. I'll go down with the ship with Rashad White. I just like that he has been more accomplished than Ja'Cory Krosky-Barrett. Obviously, it's Bill's second season, so he still has more to prove, but when you make the comparison to Javante, I look at that as, well, Javante had showcased, hey, I can be a fantasy RB1. Rashad White's already been a top eight fantasy running back before. We've already seen him do it, and it's because he does the things that score well in fantasy. Good in the red zone and good at catching passes. He's caught at least 40 passes every single season he's been in the NFL. I think that that goes a long way. So even if Bill is improving as a pass catcher, is he still better than Rashad White? That is the main question, and we're going to find out when they face the Philadelphia Eagles in week one on the road. Well, buddy, buckle up. Are you ready for pass throw or not? Because if you blow a coverage or a protection and J.J. does gets blown up, you're going on the bench, and Rashad White's going to be in the game sooner rather than later. So that's the only pushback I'll have, and the commander's offensive line. Also does concern me a little bit. I know they've been dealing with some injuries, so that's the only other thing that I would point out. But yeah, again, I don't hate your call. I think that there is some value in this commander's backfield just because everybody is so cheap. I'm just going on the Rashad White. And of course, he went to call up Jane Daniels. So they're both their boys. Understandable. My only pushback with Bill and stuff, I think he is a hands down better fit. If this rushing offense goes to more wide zone and just zone runs just in general, because you look at how the attack last year, fourth lowest zone rate as far as just rushing volume, but they had the third highest zone rushing success rate. And this all ties into Bill because amongst 49 qualifying running backs last year, he had the seventh best zone yards per carry and the ninth best zone rushing success rate. So if they move to more of this zone based rushing attack with David Blau calling plays and stuff like that, and yes, to Erickson's point, the offensive line without Tunsell and stuff like that is a big concern. But we've seen other teams and other schemes, like how many years have we been talking about the 49ers outside of Trent Williams? What the heck does this offensive line look like? Or other varieties of zone rushing schemes? So if this transition to more wide zone happens, Bill is a hand down better fit for this scheme. He's awesome for it. That's where I think we could see the upside if the offensive line can at least be league average in this transition. Larry, that's the top. Tagline, league average. You don't need you to be perfect. We need you to just be passable and okay, keep Jane Daniels upright. And before we move on to our next set of predictions, our fade predictions, buying glasses can be a struggle between pricing and feeling like things are overcomplicated and finding the perfect fit for your face. That is what is so great about Warby Parker. Nothing comes close on quality, price, selection, and customer service. 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Gonna have Debro kick us off. Hopefully, these bold predictions don't hurt too many feelings, but we might ruffle some feathers here. Debro, kick us off. I think missing most of training camp in the preseason is going to hurt him also when you juxtapose this with the rise of Dontavion Wicks and the Philly passing attack I think Mekhi Lemon will have a Luther Burden-esque type of rookie season where he is struggling to get on and stay on the field all of his entirety of his rookie season because Dontavion Wicks I must be a Packers homer on this like golly but anyway I think he's going to struggle to be on the field and stay on the field in two wide receiver sets because Dontavion Wicks quietly has really been freaking good and we're going to see him unleashed in the Philadelphia Eagles passing attack this year Wicks on a per route basis has been third and 24th in separation score over the last two years sixth and seventh in route win rate and even if you just look on a per route basis last year target per route run rate first downs per route run amongst 109 qualifying wide receivers Dontavion Wicks was 41st and 25th in those two metrics. Now unleashed in the Eagles passing attack and you put this also with Mekhi Lemon missing so much time Wicks is going to be undeniable and we're going to see a breakout season from him which is going to hurt Mekhi Lemon who in the early reports of camp and training camp stuff like he's getting gadgety kind of usage like in motion on play action that's not a guy that like at least if those reports are true and this goes through the entire season is he playing in two wide receiver sets on the perimeter it's one of the biggest questions I had about him as a prospect coming into the NFL and I think Wicks is going to make life very difficult for Mekhi Lemon and he's going to disappoint people in his rookie season yeah not to like aggressively say oh we got to go out and target Dontavian Wicks but it has to be pointed out that he clearly has a role in this offense we talk about the Packers thinning the herd while they thin the herd with Dontavian Wicks by trading him over to a guy who was coaching the team last year and Sean Manion so for all the arguments we make about coaches and previously and that he was this guy's offensive coordinator Sean Manion was right there with him last year so the fact that he brought him over I don't know guys it could be happening and i think you're 100 right once we see gadgety stuff is fun when it's being added on top a little extra but if the gadgety stuff is the main thing we have to rely on that is a that is a concern erickson are you in or out on mckay lemon this season well i mean his price is reflected in all the things that deborah pointed out i mean he goes outside the top 40 wide receivers and luther burton was wide receiver 48 i believe in his final standing during his rookie season so i totally understand the outline of the season for mckay lemon but the price has come down so dramatically that in deeper formats i still like having lemon on my bench as a player that yes if he's following this type of season he can pop in the second half of the year as we tend to see from a lot of these rookie wide receivers especially ones that deal with injuries early on so i'm not totally writing him off i think that in shallower leagues though it's going to be a much tougher sell to hold on to someone like lemon you it's so easy to see where week one he comes out and he goes for 100 yards because deshaun watson is just peppering him with targets because they're getting smoked by the jaguars whereas mckay lemon he could be fourth in targets behind goddard and smith and wicks like you pointed out so i think it's just kind of adjusting expectations with lemon i think it's the best way to approach but not desperately completely bury him for the entirety of 2026 i love that you brought up kc because i was going to pose this to you after you got done with your diatribe because i was like they're going within six spots of each other if you're on the clock who are you taking lemon or kc and for me it's easy kc every time yeah let me ask a harder one though um i'll ask both of you uh debro is would you go with lemon or wandale robinson lemon is 48 wide receiver 48 wandale robinson is wide receiver 49 um okay i'll give you a nuanced answer before the preseason and i saw how bad cam ward was playing i would have gone with wandale after the preseason and i've seen how bad cam ward is playing i'm going with mckay lemon i feel that i feel that i just i don't care about what he did in the preseason but i would still take one anyway so yeah yeah i i feel that oh god higher hopes we had hopefully preseason was you know just them working out you know what's the curing ailment for all the titans offensive woes new york jets defense week one oh it's a good call the point the point brandon stephens says hi the complete rebuild there of the jets defense erickson we'll talk about your prediction go say you know i'm interested to see this one because um i talked about jacori krosky merit so i want to see how this ties into is this like a a downing of the entire washington offense is about the offensive line hit us with your bold prediction yeah i'm just concerned about jane daniels and this washington offense overall and the chance that maybe we get another dumpster fire season from them so my prediction is that jane daniels will not be top 12 fantasy quarterback and this is one that i did not feel comfortable putting into the show sheet because i know on fantasy fest jj zachary's and he was talking up both stefan digs and tara mccluren as guys that could both be top 24 wide receivers so i'm looking at it from the other angle in terms of like the worst case scenario the worst case run out for this commander's offense and it starts up front with the offensive line we've seen offensive lines that can't hold up just crush offenses overall it's happened with cj shroud in houston right this electric rookie season can't fail he's the next big thing and what happens the infrastructure around him just crumbles the offensive line can't get it together and with every new play caller every new offensive coordinator that comes in it's just not the right fit for what cj strow is doing now i know jane daniels isn't the same type of quarterback they're a little bit different obviously daniels offers more mobility so that's what makes this scarier because he can offer so much as a rusher and i don't want to fade a guy that could lead the nfl and rushing at the quarterback position but i'm also trying to be realistic in terms of losing laramie tunsell and how big a deal that is the fact that their starting center has missed the majority of the summer i was reading the athletic article about the washington commander's offensive line and the way that they described it that just tissue thin interior of the offensive line that terrifies me and i know the preseason was a small sample size but jane jones had no time to throw just you know starters are out there they're trying to block nope no chance against the offensive line and i'm just back up players on the opposing team they did not play well in a lot of the preseason games a lot of joint practices were a mixed bag for jane daniels and this offense red reports that daniels is probably also going to have fewer design runs in this new offensive scheme because it'd be more under center now i know that he's still going to scramble that that's part of his game that's not going to go away but i'm just i'm just scared of investing so much into jane daniels where you have to take him as an elite quarterback when quarterback is so so deep this year why take the risk on jane daniels who when you look at the ecr rankings there are two guys that show up as red when you look at the top 12 quarterbacks one of them is lamar which we all know why and one of them is jane daniels which we all know why and the offensive line just concerns me david blau i thought that it was interesting deeper that you point out about the 49ers and how kyle shanahan is able to scheme around offensive line personnel because he's kyle shanahan david blau is not kyle shanahan like he has to show that he can do that and that's what makes me concerned that you're putting an offensive play caller a brand new one in a position where he's already facing an uphill battle because he doesn't have his stud left tackle he doesn't have his starting center who's missed the majority of camp because of an injury terry mcclaren is an older wide receiver stefan diggs is an older wide receiver stefan diggs as an elite and efficient he was last year patriots had no problem saying hey see you bye he's been on three different teams the last three seasons so is he going to continue to get better i don't think so if anything i think that he might fall off a little bit more not say he can't be productive but it's just all outlining all these different things it makes me not want to draft jane daniels in fantasy and it makes me want to draft every other single quarterback because there's so many other options where i feel like i can mitigate so much more risk by avoiding him so this one again i have a hard time believing it myself but i felt like i really wanted to come to the table with it last note the schedule for the philadelphia or for the washington commanders week one at the eagles we feeling good about that like that's a matchup where i'm like i'm already doing my week one rankings and where do i have jane daniels rank like he's not qb5 or qb6 because i'm concerned about that matchup the schedule overall is really really tough then they got to go to dallas approved defense then they got to host the seattle seahawks really good defense and they get to face the colts okay maybe some relief oh well that game's in london overseas then you got to go back play another division matchup against the giants and then you got to go on the road to san francisco and then you have to pay the eagles and the rams off their bye weeks if if they just lose all these games dan quinn gets fired is this just another lost season that's my big concern about this commanders overall and with dame daniels as the most expensive guy the guy at the top i know that he has the talent and ability to overcome it but if that's just for him to pay off his adp where he just finishes his qb5 or qb6 i don't want to take the risk because i feel like i've outlined a lot of potential red flags and landmines with his profile when dude i just take bone x man like he's gonna be qb7 for the third year in a row and i can get him in the 12th round party yeah so so so again that that's my bold prediction of a jane daniels fade what do you guys think is it horrible what do we think the scariest thing about everything you outline there erickson is losing the design carry share because i'm pulling it up right now jane daniels was fifth amongst quarterbacks behind only justin fields jaylen hurts jackson dart and kyler murray last year in design carry share if that drops i mean we're just talking about okay then then his fantasy value is dropping like the two are so highly correlated to each other like his rushing ability and and that like carrying the day outside of a bad like offensive line yeah that it's concerning man like so if he's gonna lose the rushing and this team just goes sideways which i've not i've not been a big fan of adam peters and how they've built this roster how they have not given jane daniels more help up front more firepower more skill players all this kind of stuff and everybody could point to like i mean just look at their last two draft classes man they've not been good like we haven't gotten any returns from ben senate we haven't gotten anything out of luke mccaffrey antonio williams is working with the second and third team for most of freaking training camp so like not enough weapons not enough blocking up front now the offensive line could be a big problem can they run the ball can they impose their will to run the ball because again none of us are projecting that this is going to be a pass heavy or a top five passing rate team it's all concerning it definitely is concerning yeah and you know you talked about that schedule 26 strength of schedule for quarterbacks it's not easy yeah so i i totally get it but here's the here's the reality too is that to not be a top 12 fantasy quarterback for him is kind of very in the realm of possibilities when you look at all the guys that are going behind him you obviously we know the guys that are going ahead of him have that built-in baked-in guaranteeing guaranteed upside you can even look at a jalen hertz and say hey passing volume down but there's always tush push jane daniels doesn't have that so again if the design run plays are down you don't have those goal line touchdowns that's not a great thing for him directly after him it's caleb williams we know how high caleb williams can finish justin herbert in this upgraded offensive scheme that's going to push more pass volume we just saw the bomb in pre-season to quentin johnston that is what we are expecting to be happening uh dac prescott we know what he can do if he actually stays on the field trevor lawton is going to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback for the game dac prescott we know what he can do if he actually stays on the field trevor lawton is going to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback for the game lawrence was the overall qb1 like literally four after the first four weeks of the season there bo nix you talked about so yeah i can start counting up the numbers and said yeah realistically there's a very good chance that if he doesn't have that high upside from an added rushing perspective or his vegging veteran receivers fail him yeah i can see where he pushes back into a high qb2 so it's it's it's bold it'll make people feel uncomfortable because this is the sixth quarterback coming off the board but it's it's realistic yeah well two and and just kind of tying a bow on all of this if we're saying that jayden daniels is pushed out of the top 12 quarterbacks but he's qb6 and adp so basically it's like okay well then what seven quarterbacks can finish above him and i can just name off the laundry there's so many good quarterbacks can finish above him brock purdy matthew stafford if he does if he outpaces the the passing touchdown stuff jared golf kyler murray jordan love in a pass heavy baker mayfield malik willis tyler shuck i mean that's more than seven quarterbacks that could all finish top 12 so if jayden daniels is pushed outside the top 12 it also becomes okay well then who are the seven quarterbacks that finished inside the top 12 that shove him outside of that realm okay we we just walked the list of names of players that could possibly do it yeah the thing that the thing that scares me the most too is if daniels lays a turd in week one every manager is going to be like do i need to pick someone else up do i need to drop jane daniels and i just i don't want to deal with the headache right i don't want to even take the risk of him because again that's a really that is really tough with this offensive line in the state that it is yeah and i just don't want to deal with the headache yeah completely agree uh now we'll move on to mine again i hope that i am not um breaking fantasy hearts here these are bold predictions i know i'm sorry i had to figure out the right way to phrase this my bold fade prediction is that david montgomery is a mid-tier rb3 i mean these are bold predictions so david montgomery truthers put your pitchforks down i'm sorry and it's a bold prediction because i think we kind of forget like i had to push it back because being a low-end rb2 um and his you know adp is rb21 that's very achievable for running back on a very balanced team with a you know that plans to have good volume on the ground and insanely good defense to not hit rb2 average numbers that's not an easy task that is why this is a very bold prediction but there are a lot of bold predictions out there that monty will have to deal with i think it's going to be a very bold prediction in rb1 season and i just kind of wanted to go in the opposite direction there because david montgomery is not joe mixon we cannot loosely apply joe mixon's workload and production to david montgomery because the main difference is is that joe mixon was already coming off of being in rb1 multiple seasons in a row in cincinnati the last time that we saw montgomery as an rb1 was in 2020 that was a long time ago my six-year-old was a baby back then and even then the last time we saw monty with over 200 carries was in 2023 and obviously we know the reason for that right jameer gibbs there's not it's not as if he was phased out because he was wildly ineffective it's because they had two multiple running backs and woody marks is not jameer gibbs but he will be in the backfield right he will get some burn but my main issue aside from not expecting mixon's exact numbers is that you also can't apply monty's efficiency in detroit to houston detroit's offensive line was below their typical last season but it was still better than houston houston's offensive line is still trying to find itself i hope it does if it finds itself and this works out then this is a bad bold prediction but it is yet again a revamped offensive line that they are trying to rework and trying to figure out they'll have youth in there they've got veterans they're trying to work in maybe we get a solid year for monty if it all works out but i'm not willing to bet on houston's offensive line it's not a monty issue as much as it is again houston the team the offensive line detroit's run game also benefited from that from a highly effective pass game with jared goff pushing volume and i love houston's pass catchers i love nico collins i love kashon booty but they're they are not on detroit's level of pass catchers as a whole with alvin ross st brown jameson williams and sam laporta that's a group that's a whole houston also runs far less plays they score they score less points they provide less goal line opportunities it is a downgrade of an offense so there is opportunity for him but there's a real reality here especially if he is splitting carries and he's not going to be and there are reports of maybe a 50 50 situation and mainly he could be relying on those goal line opportunities to really push him up there into that reliable weak league production there's a possibility that if this doesn't work out the exact perfect way we're looking at an rb3 production from him this hurts my heart i know but there's a way that this could happen and it really just comes down to if the offensive line is god awful and if cj stroud has got awful yeah to where there is no respect to the passing game we're going to see davis mills nobody respects davis mills except for people that supply turtle next to the world um but so i i can see this happening i don't that was good i wasn't expecting it was excellent there you go um but again this could easily happen if the quarterback play goes sideways and the offensive line play goes sideways but i'll step back here for sure i love the call i think dev montgomery's a dead zone back so i'm i'm well i don't i don't draft him i i'm fine if someone else wants to take braden smith already went on injured reserve the tackle that they signed so now trent brown's gonna start like trent brown is 38 years old i think 39 years old he is very long in the tooth so for me montgomery is just in that zone where i don't want to draft running backs because i think that he's not going to see as much volume as the bulls will want to put on him because this is what always happens with dead zone running backs it's projected volume don't really care about offense environment usually it's a better offense environment when these guys get propped up i think that's the only reason why montgomery's not going because he plays for the texans and we're not exactly sure how high power this office is going to be and i agree with you i think woody marks is going to play more than people are giving credit for i mean if you just look at the total amount of carries and yardage he got it was he put up the exact same stat line as quinn john judkins last year yep so again like woody marks was playing out of position i think that he's more natural as a pass catcher that's what he did at college so yeah i'm with you i think that he's going to disappoint in fantasy yeah i was looking at the projections for monty and i was like this is optimistic we're working him in as a lead back and this is this is a lot unfortunately and if the split comes with woody marks i know people like you look at it and you say well no i mean monty is the better back like in a vacuum sure maybe but if houston does like woody marks so there is no reason that we can't have significant usage from him that just puts monty in a position where the production is very mediocre and he's on the field he's still working he's doing monty things but it's just a different environment a different situation different team and again still split workload we're going to go on to more bold predictions but before we move on to the next set of wild card bold predictions i have the pleasure of announcing a giveaway winner the winner of the colston loveland sign bears jersey giveaway is tom wallace congratulations please get in touch with our customer service agents at mailbag at fantasypros.com with your screenshot of your youtube account page while logged in once we confirm it's you we'll get you the prize again congrats to tom wallace but that is not all we've got a new giveaway here so if you want a chance to win a kyron williams signed rams mini helmet then this is your shot all you have to do is leave a review on either apple podcasts or spotify then screenshot that review and email it to mailbag at fantasypros.com we will be announcing the winner right here on the show so make sure that you turn on those youtube notifications or follow the podcast wherever you listen to us so you can know when new episodes are up and to claim your prize all right we will wrap things up with our last set of bold predictions it's wild card predictions anything goes here these are super fun d bro's gonna start things off with okay both of yours spoiler alert again because i like to do the spoiler alerts i'm obsessed and co-sign both of your bold predictions so you will hear no argument from me only co-signing so no debates on this one let's go with d bro's bold prediction quentin johnson is the clear wide receiver one for the los angeles chargers and he's a top 15 wide receiver in fantasy this year and for everybody that says this is bold it's ludicrous is it sane okay fine i'll point you kindly to last year when qj was healthy in weeks one through four and uh excuse me one through four and nine through 18 he was operating as the chargers wide receiver one he got hurt in week five with a hamstring injury he missed week six week seven and week eight he was not part of the chargers wide receiver one he was not part of the chargers wide receiver one the offense so the chargers can put him on the injury report not put him on the injury report lie about injury reports like every other nfl team that's fine but you could tell by the usage quentin johnson was not healthy in week uh seven nine percent target share week eight he drew zero targets so not close to being healthy so if we look at the sample size of when qj was actually healthy last year again weeks one through four and nine through 18 this is not a four game sample i'm backflips and doing all kinds of nonsense we look at this sample for quentin johnson 20.3 percent target share 1.83 yards per outrun 12 red zone targets 17 deep targets 27 percent missed tackle rate a 24.8 first read share in this passing attack and the reason that i bring you those six stats is because in that sample quentin johnson led the entire freaking team and every single category and looping all this back around and him being a top 15 wide or receiver again in that sample not a small one at all he averaged 13.9 ppr points per game which last year would have made him the wide receiver 16 and fantasy points per game so he's knocking on the door of top 15 production just draft qj enjoy oh i love it but debro he dropped passes back in 2024 no okay we gotta move on we gotta give him a chance like he's he's improved every single year he didn't even have the most drops of the receiving core for the chargers last year that was lad mcconkey and you pointed out those last days don't want to hear that tara yeah they don't want to hear that i mean i think like coaches if the coaches don't care about the drops often fans care about it more and i get it because we're watching it we want you know games to be one you know we don't like to see the passage dropped but if the coaches it doesn't bother them as much as it bothers us it's not that deep and then you brought up you know those go go ahead the i mean speak to the coaches mike mcdaniel's tossing around some very high praise about cops for qj uh so far for everybody out there and if you have not seen this it's worth a google it is 100 and when we talk about coaches as well um again that you can look and you can look at saying i'm not going to draft somebody that drops passes i guarantee there's a high probability you will draft someone in the first round that has dropped more passes than quentin johnson i promise you that because there are people up there that are dropping quite a bit of passes they're so talented it doesn't matter so you still get that usage you pointed out the weeks one through four usage in the in beyond as well i think it's also important to point out especially in that one through four time period that was not as if he was operating as an anomaly and the only one producing quentin or uh keenan allen also was having a strong performance over that time period as well so this is a situation where everybody can eat and it's possible that quentin johnson eats the most in the office so we talk about all the positives here that are ahead for the chargers offense you gotta apply those positives to quentin johnson as well if you don't want to go as bold as wide receiver one that's okay but the value for his adp is absolutely insane erickson are you are you pro quentin johnson are you with us so i've definitely been the last one to the quentin johnson party because i've liked lad i've also i'm also trey harris stan so i'm still holding out i mean my prediction would have been like trey harris wide receiver one which i still think is possible but very less likely to happen in the future so i'm still holding out i'm still holding either lad or quentin johnson being the number one guy here but you guys have made so many great points about him throughout the entire offseason whether it's been debra what's been you tara whether it's been tom strack and i did his show last week and he was talking about quentin johnson as a breakout receiver and all of these smart people are coming to the same conclusion maybe it's just something that i'm missing here with my blind spot and i think that the quentin johnson drops thing is so real like people remember the bias against him because they see him drop these plays and when he squeezes that long touchdown in the preseason game your game like this is what happens when he does squeeze the ball when he does catch it so yeah i i've moved him up pretty significantly in my rankings where it's not as high as you guys probably but it's within striking distance when i see him on the board i try to snag him up because i think that he has a lot of upside for sure in this offense right worst case scenario chargers offense i want pieces of that he's at a palatable price yeah he's beaten wide receiver 40 the last two seasons and that's where his adp is so just based on that alone he doesn't even need to like you said be a he can still finish as a wide receiver too and pay off his cost at a very good rate so yeah uh you guys can i also give a quick psa to everybody that's going to the comment section right now to sit here and have to drop their drop jokes in here into the comments i just want to quickly read off the leaders and drops amongst wide receivers real fast last year and and we can all just chime in and you tell me if these are bad or or if they're good players amon ross saint brown jameson williams tedrow mcmillan zay flowers jordan addison chris alabe cd lamb justin jefferson roma dunze jamar chase emeka ibuka that's your top 11 receivers in drops last year is that a list of bad players or good it's a list of key targets right there so we love the drops apparently i love it i love it reading off the drops exactly perfect now we're going to go on to another one that people might because it's another one that feels a little controversial but i feel like people are coming around more to this one especially with the addition of liam cohen there but there are some people that still are maybe not believers so erickson talk to us about trevor lawrence trevor lawrence is going to win mvp and finish as the fantasy qb1 overall this season so i have wavered and moved my ranking so much with trying to figure out which quarterback i want again we talk about how deep quarterback is this year and you can't go wrong but ultimately one person is going to be right when it comes to which late round quarterback did you draft and was it the best one like last year it was drake may and we nailed that one for the most part even though there were other good late round quarterbacks whether it was bo nicks whether it was kayla williams like there were a lot of good options last year but the one answer that was correct was drake may and i want to be correct with this one so i'm going to go with trevor lawrence going all in on the jaguars quarterback from week five onward he outscored every single other player not just quarterbacks running backs wide receivers tight ends 23 points per game from week five onward overall he finished the year top five fantasy points per game he was number one in expected fantasy points per game entering his second season with liam cohen cohen has just been raving about trevor lawrence and the growth that he's seen for him throughout this offseason the thing that people don't know enough about trevor lawrence is when he had all of his guys healthy last year between brian thomas jr jacoby myers brenton strange parker washington 28 points per game he was elite he was borderline elite and i'm sick of being gaslit into well he's not gonna score as many rush touchdowns again erickson like just like josh allen like they like to use him there because he's good at it and if there's a chance that this jaguars backfield is just mid basial toon doesn't take a step forward chris roger is a jag oh what are you gonna do qb design runs for trevor lawrence in the red zone touchdowns touchdowns touchdowns because that's all he did last year he had 38 total touchdowns trailing only josh allen and matthew stafford the year before in liam cohen's offense baker mayfield threw for 40 plus touchdowns in 2024 there was such a high ceiling for trevor lawrence in his second season with the amount of red zone usage that he gets as both a thrower and a rusher with all the weapons he has again even if a guy goes down no problem we got depth they got depth at receiver at a tight end all over the place and worst case scenario he can also use his legs especially in the red zone so i think that cohen has talked about again highlighting how he likes using lawrence's legs as a weapon in the red zone so i think that's going to continue again nine rushing touchdowns last year only trail josh allen who's usually the one that's always finishing as fantasy qb1 trevor lawrence has all the ingredients to be a good receiver in the red zone so i think that's a fantasy qb1 and the fantasy qb1 in 2026 trevor lawrence quietly 11th and design carry share last year fifth and red zone carries per game so i'm not going to gaslight you erickson i think you're onto something here in liam cohen we trust it's like it's shocking that the rushing upside that we saw in college like we saw it i saw it my own two eyes in college i've seen it i've seen it like where you know previous regimes just didn't utilize it effectively now we've got liam cohen we all believe in him right so why would he not keep doing the thing that he knows works he's going to wide receiver core so deep they put their shiny fresh top of the end draft pick on defense and said i'm sorry buddy we're just too deep here we can't use you in the receiving core right now we might have to bring you along sometimes in little gimmicky special ways yeah we sit here and argue over who's the wide receiver one that only leans into the upside for trevor lawrence because he faces those tough defenses it's not a complete layup schedule particularly at the beginning of the season we talked about that but it's so much easier when you don't have to worry about like your seattle and you're hyper targeting jsn you don't have to worry about that you can avoid the difficult spots there and target what works for you so i'm 100 on this and i'm glad you put in mvp because if it was just qb1 i'm not gonna lie erickson i would have been like it's not bold enough so i'm glad you put the mvp i mean i'm telling you people are gonna be all about the bandwagon when trevor lawrence for five tighties against the cleveland browns defense in week one there we go yes obsessed with it all right um i'm just gonna continue to break hearts and make people mad my wild card you're not gonna break in my heart i love this there we go all right there we go it is uh jalen coker averages more points per game in ppr than tatero mcmillan yes i had to put in that ppr caveat there i would not have necessarily made this prediction earlier in the season because the expectation was that the arrival of chris brazel was going to open up opportunities for mcmillan to get more creative and varied usage and play in the slot get more consistent volume to be able to counteract being in a low pass volume offense that just doesn't utilize mcmillan to the best of his abilities but unfortunately chris brazel out for the season just kind of threw a wrench into that and i see some mentions still of the increased slot work for uh tatero mcmillan and i think people are forgetting that that was directly tied to the emergence of brazel as a trustworthy target on the outside xavier laguette has unfortunately proven that he's not he just can't be reliable so the panthers offense is set to repeat what the receiving core did last season with two caveats caveat number one is that jalen coker is actually healthy and will start the season as the wide receiver two instead of having to work his way back into the offense and caveat number two this should be should have been a top 10 offensive line for the panthers unfortunately now dealing with a ton of injury so if the offensive line struggles to give bryce young time to throw the result will be increased looks into the slot which will belong And Coker asserted himself at the end of last season that upside that we saw that's the real him we just haven't been able to see it because unfortunately he's been dealing with health issues for the entirety of his career but despite those health issues they made sure to lock him into a contract he's never had over 500 yards in a season because he has been unable to stay on the field but he is healthy right now they trust him they wanted to lock him in as their wide receiver too and if that is not a massive endorsement of faith i don't know what is coker is literally a quarterback stream extremely reliable hands great route running and again i put the caveat of ppr because mcmillan will probably have the edge on touchdowns he's not disappearing he's still going to be very involved but unfortunately the passes that he will get from bryce young will just be more volatile um and a little bit more inconsistent in terms of the catch rate and it'll just be easier for coker to have the edge in receptions that will give him over the ppr hump debro you were on board here cokeheads unite totally with this uh and and i threw this out like i've said for the entirety of the offseason the adp discrepancy and disparity that exists between ted roe mcmillan and jaylen coker is astronomically insane to me both of these guys are going to catch passes from bryce young both of these guys are the clear number two like one and two in the passing attack and for everybody that thinks that there is no way that this could possibly happen at all to your point tara i kindly point them to last year weeks 13 through 19 ted roe mcmillan versus jaylen coker mcmillan had an 18.3 target share coker had 20 ted roe mcmillan had 1.78 yards per outrun jaylen coker had 2.3 ted roe mcmillan had one red zone target jaylen coker had four ted roe mcmillan had a 26.1 first read share during that stretch jaylen coker 28.3 so i think there's a run out where this can be possible i'm not i'm going out there and i'm not ranking coker over ted roe mcmillan but i'm telling everybody that the the discrepancy and their adps should not exist that gap should be closed both of these guys are extremely talented and again for everybody that says there is no plausible path to this just look at last year over a war like a sizable sample of games where coker was out producing mcmillan yeah it happened the evidence was right in front of us and that beautiful playoff game where you just broke out and truly looked like he was ascending we're just going to carry that right on through for him to finally cross our fingers stay healthy buddy that's all we need from you just stay on the field and you got this i should have put that in the caveat as well as my bold prediction you got to stay healthy buddy eric said are you team jaylen coker so i like the way that you guys phrased this argument towards being pro coker because i think that's really what you're trying to sell here is he's going too low in drafts however i don't feel like you need to do it at the expense of t-mac i don't feel like you need to do it at the expense of t-mac i don't feel like this guy is he won offensive rook am i like forgetting that he won offensive rookie of the year last year no i saw the cash in my pocket from winning those teteroa mcmillan is a superstar he was uh he won this award with bryce young as his quarterback on an offense that finished bottom five and passed right over expectation he was thrown into the fire from day one but you got to be the alpha and he delivered he was the most consistent rookie and that's why he won the award last year so i think that he's just scratching the surface on what he can do so again i like that you guys want to be higher on coker and to your point debro close the gap then move jalen coker up because i don't think we should keep moving t-mac down he's wide receiver 20 in his adp he was wide receiver 15 last year and he's gonna be worse because there's one other guy in the offense that command targets who else is going to command targets the offense uh tight ends they use five different guys uh jonathan brooks so i think both guys can eat i think that you should be into both of these players they're facing the bears in week one like t-mac is gonna be so i think that he's just being vastly underrated by the masses so i like again draft both panthers wide receivers i i have no issue with either of these guys last year on in breaking routes t-mac 17 yards behind guys like jsn puka george pickens and saint brown all alpha superstar wide receivers and when he got double digit targets last year 18 fantasy points per game in those four contests he got 126 targets last year that was top 12 as a rookie over 1100 receiving yards as a rookie with bryce young as his quarterback i i just think that you guys aren't being fair to the talent of t-mac by bashing him but i like the praise of jaylen coker so i love t-mac i just want but you don't though because you have a wide receiver 26 so he's gonna finish worse than he did last year yes i have him lower because this is a bryce problem and not a tet problem that's that's my only issue but you think you love jaylen coker even though he has the same quarterback yeah because he's wide receiver freaking 52 in real time adp right now undervalued that's how i think i think they're both undervalued i hear you we don't want to want to we don't hurt uh want to hurt ted rowe mcmillan's feelings he's so talented and i love bryce young but man gotta get the ball downfield buddy we gotta get him but he's been good when they actually push volume i just do not trust them to let him actually push a lot of volume but again you talk about it who else is catching the ball we know it's not xavier laguette it is a very narrow target funnel to only two guys and a couple of running backs that is it they don't throw to the tight ends by design that's not even a talent issue because you could argue well darren waller well he can't stay on the field but regardless those dave canalas offenses don't aggressively target the tight ends it's just how it works so yeah it's a very near target tunnel right to those guys so it's a very good point erickson and quick psa before your next draft make sure that you are checking out the fantasy pros draft assistant it gives you expert recommendations for every pick real-time alerts and even predicts which players could make it back to you that is very key and with fantasy pros premium you'll get help all season long with lineups waivers trades and more so start your free trial today at fantasypros.com slash free that is fantasypros.com slash free all right that wraps things up for this show before we head out make sure that you like this video and that you are subscribed to the youtube channel and the podcast you do not miss out on any other fantasy football content that we got going on here as we close out in season here it's finally here guys so make sure that you are locked in for andrew erickson for derrick brown i'm tara roberts thank you for tuning in we will see you next time thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast if you love the show the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on spotify follow us on x instagram and tiktok at fantasy pros and subscribe to our youtube channel at youtube.com slash fantasy pros this is an iheart podcast guaranteed human