One Nation’s Surge, Mark Carney’s Warning & How Social Media Shapes Politics

This is the pub test. Good morning and welcome to this week's edition of the pub test. My name is Neil Ferro and we're here with my co-host Aaron Watson and we're talking all things politics. Now, this week in the pub test we're going to dive into social media and what's happening around the states in particular Victoria in social media from the liberal, the labour and the crossbench side and how that's having an impact on the upcoming Victorian elections. Moving to national discussion of the week, we're going to dive into the rise of one nation and the polling that's showing recently that in some demographics, one nation is now appalling on primary votes, even a labour party in certain demographics across Australia. And then internationally we're going to dive across to Canada and North America off the back of the Canadian Prime Minister's speech at the Davos World Forum, Canada, another middle power like Australia and hear a little bit about what the opportunities, challenges and discussions are across Canadian politics. But a very good morning and welcome to you, Aaron, how's your week been? Well, my week has been, it's been a really interesting week, Neil, there's been a lot happening in politics. I mean, every single day I'm just like, ah, but also on the personal side of politics as well. Last week I attended the memorial for Katie Allen, who very sadly passed away recently and that was a really, it was just a really human moment in politics again, which was really nice. I also didn't realise until I went to her memorial, just how distinguished her medical career was. She published over 400 peer-reviewed articles and as someone who comes from an academic background that just like the mind boggles at that, that kind of achievement. So, so that was a really human side of the last week and I'm really glad I made time to head along there. But just reflecting on the Katie Allen, I was fortunate enough to run against Katie Allen at the States. And against her, of course. Yes. At the end of 2018. Now, both of us lost the seat to the Greens in the end, but it was very, very dignified and proper campaign ran with Katie Allen when she was the liberal candidate for that seat. I remember it. I remember it. I remember it. I remember that very well. We had a little chit chat back then. This week we're diving into three topics, obviously social media and the Victorian election. What's happening in Canada and North America and internationally, sorry, the polling for one nation across Australia. But we're going to take a turn and start international this time round and have a bit of a chat over Canada. So before we dive into the politics, let's give some sort of quick facts and figures and sort of roundabout numbers about Canada, because you've obviously all know that I quite like my facts and figures about the little countries that we dive into. So Canada is the second largest country in the world geographically and it stretches across six time zones. It contains 62% of the world's lakes with over two million lakes in total and has one of the world's longest coastlines. It's also got a very small population density. Almost all of their population lives in a little bubble sort of just north of the U.S. Canada border. And the reason why that is is because it's exceptionally cold. The coldest temperature ever recorded in Canada was minus 63 degrees Celsius, absolutely freezing. No thanks. And it's quite an interesting little part of the world because it has everything from sort of massive beaver dams. So the world's largest beaver dam, a huge amount of moose population and really only 10% of their land is inhabited. And it's broken up into a number of different provinces, similar to Australia, and our system of government is very, very similar Canada versus Australia as well. The one exception is their upper house in Canada is actually still appointed, like the House of Lords in the UK. So their upper house is appointed and their lower house is elected, representing sort of the population demographics across Canada. But apart from the facts and figures, including that Canada has a polar bear prison, I'm told, in Manitoba, in the town of Churchill, and they invented baseball gloves, why are we talking about Canada in the political context, Erin? What's the news and what's made the Canadian Prime Minister make the news very recently? Well, yes. So, earlier in January, we had the annual love in Ad Davos, which is the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting. So this kind of brings together, I say, loving because it really brings together the world's business elites. This is very much an economic conversation, but it also brings along heads of states as well. So it's one of those meetings that I think, look, I'm not going to lie, I would absolutely love to go to Davos. I'd love to have that white little tag around my neck, and to really see what it's all about. But because it is in Davos, in Switzerland, it's sort of ooze as well, ooze as privilege. And you get these huge speeches like from people like Mike Carney and Donald Trump and his son-in-law was there giving his speech on what they were going to do with the Gaza River era. Like, this is a really, really major annual meeting. And it's seen as very, very exclusive. And one of those things that everybody would love to, secretly love to get an invite too, even if you sort of against the whole like idea of the Uber Elite and Uber privilege kind of gathering together. So, what actually happened was Mark Carney, who is the Prime Minister of Canada, gave a really powerful speech at Davos. And obviously, Canada has been on the absolute cold face of, you know, the US sort of exerting its power in recent, you know, probably the last 12 months, Canada has really been at the forefront of that conversation. And what was interesting is I remember waking up because of the time difference to so many Instagram messages from people who had seen his speech, and these aren't like political junkies. So, people I know from scouts when I was growing up, and people I know professionally, and so not like, you know, geopolitical tragic, I would say. They were just people watching the internet, and we're sending this speech to me. I remember originally thinking, "Oh yes, just like people sending me, you know, Canada's speech at Davos." But it wasn't until the analyst really came out and said, "This is a really monumental speech that he has given, and I can take you through some elements of it." But it was, it was definitely one of the big news stories that came out of Davos. What Mark Carney was saying, and it was so much about what was in the subtlety of his language that was really essential. Did you sort of get this coming across your feed as well at the time? I did. I did. And look, the world economic forum as Aaron Ted is sort of a big news. It had over 65 heads of government, which is almost a third of the world's heads of government from sort of Morocco, Switzerland, Trump was there, Carney was there, and sort of everyone in between. And it also had 830 of the world's top CEOs and chairs of companies. And it was quite interesting as well, because my feed started to fill with commentary about sort of Mark Carney, all of a sudden. And it was quite interesting because normally Canadian politics doesn't get much of a mention in Australia. And while we're very similar countries sort of historically and sort of political system wise, it is unusual to get sort of Canadian news front and centre. Yeah. Before I hand to you over sort of some of the key things he said, one of the most interesting sides of it is Canada is known like Australia as what's called a middle power. So we're not a super power like the US or China or potentially Russia these days as well, but sort of operating in this sort of middle power, which is what he really lent into in his speech. So give us a sort of a snapshot as to what he said and what its relevance is for Australia. The underlying message of all of this was he was really trying to stand up to Trump. But he never mentions Trump in this speech. And he mentions democracy once. So he's really not trying to go back to that idea of, oh, we're a democracy we said, which we do a lot is in Australia because we try and use that as our, that's what democracy, rule of law, all of these things matter for countries like Australia and like Canada. Because without that system, it becomes might as right. And that's what we're seeing the US revert back to with how it's sort of using its power around the world. So the way that the way he delivers this speech is just phenomenal, like it's his skills as an orator, the orator of the right word. And we are going to put a little bit of his speech in podcast for everyone to listen to. But what he basically says is that the US hegemony, you know, in the post cold war era served us really, really well, you know, set up sea lanes, set up trade routes, set up all of these wonderful things that basically meant that you had this rules based order underpin all of these systems. And that served us all really, really well. But unfortunately with essentially what he's saying is the way that the US is behaving is completely undermined that power. And we're going back to this might as right sort of situation, I don't think he uses those exact words. But what he does say, this bargain no longer works. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. You know, when I think about that particular statement, we often talk about, oh, you know, this sort of period with Trump, it's actually what he's saying, this is a really fundamental moment and change into in the world order. Here he goes on to say, and as millennials, we can really relate to these things, I think. Over the past two decades, a series of crises and finance, health, energy and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration. And that actually is a really clever statement as well, because it sort of goes to say, well, actually, yeah, we can see why globalization, what the risks are with globalization, and then he goes on to say, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, terraces leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited. So they're actually now using that system in order to subordinate others. He then goes on to say, you cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination. On one hand, he's saying, this is actually served us very, very well. Globalization, multilateralism, international law, and so on, while also saying, now this is becoming the source of our subordination as middle powers. And he talks in this speech about how, without some level of integration, we will be much poorer and much worse off as a, you know, in the global community. Can it rule this society? Yeah. Exactly. And so the other thing that he did that I thought was a really powerful start to the speech is he kind of goes back to the Soviet era when everybody was sort of believing this lie around the workers. So he goes to this quote, 1978, the Czech dissident, Varslav Havel, leader president, wrote an essay called The Power of the Powerless. And in it, he asked a simple question, how did the communist system sustain itself? And his answer began with a green grocer. Every morning, this shopkeeper places a sign in his window, workers of the world unite. He doesn't believe it. No one does. But he places a sign anyway to avoid trouble, to signal compliance, to get along. And because every shopkeeper on every street does the same, the system persists, not through violence alone, but through the participation of ordinary people in rituals. They privately know to be false. Havel called this living within a lie. The system's power comes not from its truth, but from everyone's willingness to perform as if it were true. I think what he's saying there is this idea of democracy in the rules based order. We keep talking about it, but now with the way that the U.S. is exerting its power and others are assuming that China and Russia fit into that narrative as well, we no longer live in that system. There was a speech that I read. It was the New Zealand Prime Minister at Ryzena dialogue earlier last year. And he sort of, you know, he talked a lot about democracy, which is the way we tend to talk about India. And he does sort of say, oh, you know, there are differences and democracies aren't perfect and blah, blah, blah. I think what Kanye is saying is we now have to go beyond that conversation. We can no longer be like, oh, you know, we've got shared values and we're democracies because we're actually living a lie that that is how the world is ordered right now. And there's some really interesting things that came up and there are relevance to Australia. So you know, one of his quotes was middle powers like Canada and Australia must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu. We're on the menu. Yeah. Interesting reflection over sort of where we sit. And he continues on on those sorts of things as well. And you know, the power of the less powerful, so middle powers begins with honesty and then linking things to perhaps our commonalities now and perhaps the values and cooperation we should focus on are on things like sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty and territorial integrity. You know, these are things dealing with a lot of the conflicts that we're dealing with globally. And he finishes off with the discussion that the powerful have their power. We have something to the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home and to act together. So it was a really interesting speech as well, recognizing that, you know, there's a shift of dynamics globally, where things are at, you know, and sort of just to the side of the Canada speech is obviously what's particularly happening in the US and the growth of obviously ICE for those who don't necessarily know what I stands for. It's immigration and customs enforcement. So it's like a border security, you know, Department of Homeland Affairs in Australia. But at the same time, Karney was making his speech. We're actually seeing American citizens in this particular instance shot in ICE raids across the US. And so you've kind of got this juxtaposition of Karney sort of positioning the new world order in a reality sense, reality check sort of perspective and middle powers. And at the same time, their neighbour effectively shooting their own citizens, thinking that they were illegal immigrants and sort of the uprising that is caused, particularly in the soda and Minneapolis, traditionally a progressive estate within the US as well. What are your other final reflections as we sort of dive into North America before spinning back locally? What are the top three things of relevance of Mark's speech for us here in Australia, for instance? Yeah. It's a really good question, Neil. I think that it's given middle powers and countries like Australia permission to say actually this, we are moving into a different era. We're no longer, you know, we are in a very different environment. It sort of gives leaders, I think, permission to actually have a new narrative and come up with a new narrative or talk about the world in a really different way. I think he's really paved that way for others in like Australia to be able to do that in New Zealand. And like I say, that sort of language shift, where, you know, maybe we're not foregrounding all of our speeches with, oh, we should all be friends because we're all democracies, like it doesn't really work that way anymore. So I think that's a really, that's probably like the number one most powerful thing for me there. And rather than being a top three, I think that's fundamentally what made this speech so significant. It's this turning point. And then if I went into, you know, I mean, the speech is so beautifully written. I'd love to actually know which one of his team members wrote it because the structure around it, the choices around some of the language, like not using, using democracy, I think is once in this speech, he doesn't talk about Trump. He talks about concepts and principles. I remember, I think I actually mentioned this in another podcast. And I remember having some, I guess council from Julie Bishop once on some international issues, whatever it was back in the day and her saying at the end of the day, you should always go back to principles. This is a very principles driven speech versus a personality like he is playing the game, not the player. And I think that's really clever and smart. Julie Bishop was at Davos, by the way, I did see her that along with Kevin Rudd, he was there. The Australians love to go. It's, it's a, you know, although Australia didn't send their prime minister, but lots of other countries did sort of both Israel and Palestine and Morocco and Switzerland and Hungary and Poland. I think that it would have been really unwise for the Australian prime minister to go because I think that obviously there's a lot going on politically here, but perceptions, like if you think about, I mean, politics is all about perception. And the perception of Anthony Albanese during the cost of living crisis in Australia to get on a plane and turn up to the world's most elite business meeting, I don't reckon it would have gone very well. I think that would have been front page of the paper instead of the, the leadership spills that have occupied the front page of the paper for the last week. It's definitely been an interesting time in Australia. So as we round out Canada and we will have a couple of grabs of some of the key lines of Mark Carney speech. So you can have a listen here. I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm going to stop you. We haven't talked about Mark Carney and if we're going to have a beer with Mark Carney. I would love to have a beer with Mark Carney and I, I would absolutely love to have a beer with him. And I'm very lucky as well. A girlfriend of mine who I worked with a very long time ago is now a senator in Canada. So I have not caught up with her since she's become a senator. So I'd very much like to catch up with her and hear the gossip. She was one of the final appointees of Justin Trudeau before he departed in the year. Do they have list up a how, list senators? No, they're just appointed by the government of the day. I think there's a certain amount of each date and territory in the government also. Each province. So they're not elected. They're appointed. No, the upper house in Canada. Yeah, lots of places, the upper house are appointed, tough to become a senator here. The UK is another one, India, not a house. India is appointed as well. So a few, a few sort of hang-ons in that regard, but yes, definitely have a beer with Mark. A beer and some Poutine. And Poutine. A beer and Poutine. Poutine. I don't even know what Poutine is. Poutine is like chips with, it's like Canadian, this is like a Canadian delicacy. I can't believe you don't know what Poutine is. It's basically chips with cheese and gravy on top. Like when it's minus 60 degrees, that sounds ideal. Okay, chips. Although I have got particularly interested in Canada recently because I've watched Heated Rivalry. So we'll round out with, I'm sure, some amazing stories on Heated Rivalry on a future episode, but very Canadian as we round that out as well. And even one person stops performing when the green grocer removes his sign, the illusion begins to crack. We have a recognition of what's happening and a determination to act accordingly. We understand that this rupture calls for more than adaptation. It calls for honesty about the world as it is. Arguing the middle powers must act together because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu. From the international, we're now going to the national and we've touched on this in our last podcast or two, the rise and rise of one nation. Now polling came out over the week end, which showed an astronomical jump again in one nation's polling across Australia. So what this is done for the first time in Australia is it is putting one nation substantially ahead of the coalition. So the polling over the weekend done for the financial review of the age and the Sydney Morning Herald. Additionally, sort of a centrist polling outfit along with Redbridge is showing Labor's primary vote down slightly down one to 34. One nation's primary vote up 9% to 26. Coalition's vote down 7% to 19. The Greens vote also down to and others up 1%. So if you have a look at the moment, what you've got is the Labor Party generally polling about a third of Australians will give the Labor Party their primary vote. And then next in line, one in four Australians will vote for one nation less than one in five for the coalition. Now what makes this really interesting is the demographic divide that's coming up in relation to this. Now we've touched on sort of some of the historical growth of the demographics in that regard as well. But interestingly enough, now if you have a look at Gen X, now we're both, as we said, on a previous episode, episode elderly or geriatric Gen Y. If you have a look at Gen X, Gen X now, which is the cohort, we'll have to get my maths. I think it's about 45-ish or 46-ish to about 60. 35% of Gen X is now prepared to put one nation as their first preference. And 33% of Gen X is prepared to put Labor as their first preference. So what this means is for the first time in an age demographic, that's not the boomers with this is Gen X. 35% of Gen X is voting for one nation. So in that demographic, they are outpolling the Labor Party. And in the baby boomers, who we typically sort of talk about as more conservative, one nation and the Labor Party are both equal polling 35% each. So this is a very fundamental shift in polling in Australia. And there's been a couple of stunts that will dive into as well and we've touched it on previous episodes. But what should take on the polling? And these numbers, where Pauline Hanson is now Australia's most favourable politician and one in three Australians, are ready to put one nation as number one. Yeah, 38% her favourability. So ahead of Albo by quite a few percentage points there. What I think is interesting, if you look at the generational split, as you mentioned, is that regardless of whether you're a gendered millennial Gen X or a baby boomer, the numbers are about the same for Labor. So 34, 33, 33, 35. People are across the generations voting for Labor at about the same amount, let's call it that. Whereas it's the other parties where it changes quite a bit. So you can sort of see the sort of splintering across generations towards different parties, whether it's the coalition or one nation. So what is it about that consistency that Labor is able to, Labor is clearly speaking to all of the generations in a very clear and consistent way, and they're receiving that message. That's kind of how I'm reading that, whereas maybe it is that one nation is targeting a particular group of people because they're the group who feel dissatisfied, but the votes clearly aren't coming from Labor, though. They're coming from somewhere else. They're coming from whether it be the coalition or the Greens or elsewhere, mostly probably the Coalition, really. When Labor's had a small drop in primary vote, the Greens have had a larger drop in primary vote, but the majority is still coming from the Coalition in relation to that. And interesting, the Greens demographic, as you've mentioned there. So in the Millennials demographic of which we're both part, more people are prepared to vote for one nation than they are the Greens. And interestingly enough, as I said, in Genx and the Boomers, that continues to substantially grow even further. And what's interesting in that group, Neil, is that actually Millennials are also more likely to vote for the Coalition than either of those parts, than one nation or the Greens. So there's still some vote is holding up in Millennials, as far as demographics, the only demographic where the Coalition is coming second is actually the Millennials. So 33% Labor, 23% Coalition, 18% One Nation, 17% Greens, and so on. Yeah, interesting, right? Yeah. So it is quite interesting. And the other side of it that we're now seeing is a very interesting time. Now, whether this sticks will be another one, but this will have a substantial implication for our two party preferred, because we can't actually do party preferred polling because we typically haven't had the split roll out from one nation historically. Now, there's been a couple of other things that may have led or assisted in bolstering some of that profile of one nation recently. We've seen Holly Valance re-release her original song, Kiss Kiss, with a one nation version. Kiss Kiss, XX, Maya, and at the same time, we've seen one nation release a movie, a super progressive movie, which was showcased around Australia with launches in all the states and territories in Australia, but some controversy in Melbourne. So in Melbourne, the launch of this movie was originally meant to occur. I think it was event cinemas at Crown, if I remember correctly, I could be wrong. And then it was cancelled, and then it was reinstated. And then there was a brawl at the launch in Melbourne. We love a protest, don't we, here in Melbourne? We are a caricature of our stereotype. I think it's a long-term hangover, perhaps, of the COVID restrictions that we are so inclined to protest and have a brawl. What's your take over one nation moving into music and movies? And I might note for those of you out there, they're both fundraisers for the party. So you can buy the movie and the song, but they are fundraisers for actually one nation. What's your take on this politically? Well, I just, I actually haven't, I've watched the trailer, but I haven't seen the movie because I'm not overly excited about donating to one nation, even though it's just $25. I haven't done it. I think it's very clever strategy. I think that, so, for example, with this podcast, this fabulous podcast, we put some shorts up on Instagram and about one nation. And I've got to say, like the amount of, it was really interesting to hear people's perspectives. You can kind of see why. People feel, people feel like the party's letting them down. We know all of this and so they're sort of looking to one nation to kind of feel that void. And I think one nation doing it really, really well. When it comes to, like, Hollywood, Hollywood can be, is her name now, but, you know, her lending her voice to it because she has become very vocal as a very conservative, quite far right politician in, well, sorry, quite political, political support, political supporter and donor. I think her and her now ex has been donated quite a lot to Nigel Farage from memory with the reform movement. So she, you know, she has, she's kind of got this celebrity status on the right. So I think it is really clever drawing her in and, and, you know, I watched the trailer. They brought in Fatima Payman was in there and the kind of like central person to the, to the movie on the trailer is a cis white guy like cisgender white guy. So there's a whole like the idea that the, the cis gender male white guys under attack. And that's, that's that's sort of the central character to this, to this movie. And so you can really see how she's sort of feeding that, you know, that particular demographic who might feel a bit sort of, you know, let down by, as we talked about the last episode, the idea of the social contract. What I did think was quite interesting in the conversations that then took place on Instagram was the difference with say Hanson and Trump is that Trump is anti-establishment. And I don't think Pauline Hansen is. I think she's an institutionalist and she's part of the establishment. And it's just giving someone an alternate voice of representation in the establishment. And actually, in a way, this is sort of how democracy works. And the difference with one nation getting seats in our parliament is that it actually doesn't necessarily, there's not as much power, right? So when Trump gets elected, the power of a US president is extraordinary and what the US president is then capable to do, not just domestically, but then internationally as we've just talked about in this podcast today already, is, is, you know, it's huge. Whereas Pauline Hansen or one nation just gets extra representation in the parliament. And it, they can put more pressure on parliament, they could put pressure on the government of the day. They can, you know, but, you know, you can't do as much. Sorry. What if they get the balance of power in the Senate? They did double their Senate representation last time for they, they went to four senators. Absolutely. You can have, you know, you, you, you then have to negotiate and you have to do deals with them and so on. But, but you can't, you know, you're not going to have an ice movement in Australia because one nation gets up in parliament, like that's not the, that's not where we're going to end up. We're not going to be arresting citizens in the street because Pauline Hansen has a few seats in parliament. You might have a government that is going to have a lot more pressure on it when it comes to say immigration policy because that's a big one house, house prices from the, the things they might add data in the chat, house prices is a big one. So yes, there'll be more pressure on some of these more, perhaps, like these issues. But, you know, I don't think that it's going to fundamentally change the fabric of Australia. Do you? Look, I think it's a really interesting one. I don't think it will change the fabric of Australia and I think it's going to be one of these sort of balances that, you know, will it grow in popularity? Will it stick? What are the opportunities? Where does that come from? And I think one of the, the analysis that is quite interesting is the reason why she's resonating strongly now, particularly so after the Bondo Massacre in Sydney, is people like, well, hold on a second. And I'm not, as I was saying, I agree or disagree, but people are saying, hey, you've been saying the same thing for 30 years, you're now right over it effectively. So a lot of it is kind of the reflection that sort of the time has come, or, you know, she's, she's writing the zeitgeist for those particular eras and sort of where all of that sits. But it also causes sort of more concerns, particularly for the major political parties, Labor, Liberal, Nationals and Greens, because if you have a look, a lot of parties globally are starting to navigate immigration in a very complex space. And there's not a particularly good experience or narrative in Australia on the major parties around immigration. And so you've got these discussions where, you know, people are fearful of raising it because that the moment it's raised, they're racist, and it's like, well, some people just want to have a discussion over the type of immigration and the nature of immigration. Yeah. And the absence of being able to have that in a polite sort of dignified kind of way, people are like, well, okay, I'm going to sort of angry with this and sort of go from there. So, you know, I think there's some really interesting, really, really interesting. It's kind of that social cohesion piece. Like it doesn't, you know, you're not going to be able to, you know, stack out the Supreme Court with a bunch of people who are going to sort of, you know, tear down the fabric of rules that have underpinned, you know, the entire country, but you will get people protesting in the street. And as someone who is married to a second generation Sri Lankan migrant, like the idea that, you know, you could be seen as not from here, just because, you know, you're from Sri Lanka or you're from India or somewhere else. And I have seen on social media, like the, particularly the anti-Indian narrative is really like vile. Like it's, you know, it's next level kind of stuff. And I think that's the bigger challenge. Like actually, it's not, it's not a threat to our democracy as such, but it's a threat to our social cohesion. And that is something we should be really worried about. And so how do we bring that, how do we bring that, how do we have a useful conversation about whatever our migration numbers are without it being this like racist kind of fictriol, hate marching in the street kind of stuff? And it's quite interesting. Well, if we have a look to other countries, um, democracies as to how they're navigating this and sort of the immigration discussion, potentially basis or some of the basis of the rise in one nation in Australia, you actually have some really interesting quirks developed. So over the last couple of months, the progressive prime minister of Denmark, um, who is from a sort of a more left-wing government than Australia and sort of comes from the Danish Socialist Party effectively, has made comments like thanks to a strict Danish immigration policy and our willingness to push the boundaries of convention. We are already deporting many foreign criminal, so I'm paraphrasing, but effectively what's now happening in Denmark is if you are not a resident or you are a refugee who hasn't got full citizenship, the Danish government is effectively saying you commit a crime and will deport you on scale. And they're also looking at discussions more generally over even things like potential revocations of citizenship and what that looks like and undergoing the discussions of sort of procedural risk, which is a very great territory in that regard as well. And some of the other Scandinavian countries have come out recently, recognising they're all very left-wing governments even compared to Australia and said things like if you're a refugee to our country and you wish to return or you do return to the country you've been a refugee from will actually cancel your citizenship, because if it's safe enough for you to return, you actually don't need to be refugee in Sweden or Norway, Denmark or Finland. So we're actually seeing this schism globally, whereas there's the US approach, which is sort of the ice first, but you've got other socialist countries taking a very interesting navigation of immigration. And so we don't think in Australia we're going to be able to get away with not having a discussion and an debate, but can we rise to your equation, which is both major political parties doing it at a civilised, sensible, non- sort of screamy kind of approach? Yeah, and I think this is the, well, I mean, this is the thing that the algorithm feeds the screamy, shouty debate. That's how the algorithm works. And, you know, I kind of, and on that, and to be able to bring the conversation back to the sensible centre, which is, I think, you know, how we actually started this podcast, is that, you know, Schnell Contos talks about the consent, you know, she has a, this whole movement around consent, which started, you know, in trying to change laws around consent laws, but then she's kind of gone from sort of, like, sexual consent to algorithm consent. And I like where you would basically, you would have to opt in and give your consent to have the algorithm, because a lot of people don't know that it's there. And these narratives, that's where they thrive, is in the algorithm. So what would that look, then look like, and what would that conversation look like if we were opting into the algorithm, and we were not choosing to opt into it, we were just sort of getting content as it's, you know, whatever. So I think that's, like, an interesting element to this, you know, to this shouty discourse that we have. And, you know, go back to the one-nation example. I mean, that would have thrived in any algorithm, sort of pushing that through, those messages through to people, really complicated stuff, because we're dealing in such a, such a different environment to what we were, you know, if you had an election 20 years ago, you would give a story to the newspapers, and then everybody reads it, and everybody sees it on that evening news, and that's just not how we consume it now. So what are the spaces for that debate? The other thing I would like to say is things like the ABC used to have talk shows and panel shows and spaces for discourse. And obviously, because they cost too much money, those shows are being cut, like the drum, like Q&A. Now, a lot of people hate this stuff, but where else do we get to have that conversation if we don't have sort of spaces for public discourse for respectful, moderated debate? It happens online, and online, there's an algorithm. And it's really interesting seeing how that plays out as we sort of dive in. We don't need to do a bit of a pub test check-in, because we haven't landed on whether we're having a beer with a couple of people that we've spoken about recently. So obviously, we've spoke about Mark Carney and Davos, and I think both Aaron and I would probably be having a cup or a beer or whatever they drink in Canada, and look, I would confess that I too would love to potentially attend Davos, mainly just to watch and listen, not to sort of anything other than the curiosity of it. So we've got that. And then, obviously, locally, what does that mean around having a beer or a pint with Pauline Hansen, Aaron, what's your take on this? We've talked about having a beer with Pauline before. I'd absolutely have a beer with Pauline, if not to listen to what she's got to say. I also think she's probably be quite fun. I think fundamental to the gist of the pub test podcast is really trying to find the centre. And I think one of the ways we can do that is, is be willing to have a drink with a lot more people and have those discussions and have those conversations outside of the algorithm. Our last topic for today is diving into what's happening in social media and politicians. So both of us live in Victoria at the moment and I did some research beforehand around who leads the track when it comes to Victorian politicians engaging in social media. And interestingly enough, the number one performer in Victoria is not the premier or the leader of the opposition, but it is Georgie Purcell of the Animal Justice Party, who has the most number of followers, then followed by just into Alan, a number of different political parties, the libertarians, Sam, Groff and David Southwick and Nicole Werner from the Liberals, the Greens and a couple of others in that as well. And so while Premier Alan has a prodigious following on TikTok, the most influential on social media is Georgie Purcell. But while we're diving into this topic, what was the recent clip that caught your attention at social media? I've had a couple of clips that I think Jess Wilson and leader of the opposition in Victoria, have absolutely nailed this week. So one was the story that I think Jackie Felgate revealed it, which was that you have, you know, East Melbourne, that beautiful Victoria street, you know, the beautiful parade, we've got the trams go down the middle and it's like a major connecting road from punt road up into the city. I drive down it all the time. One side of the road sits in one council and one side of the road sits in another council, but it is a state road. So the state government is the one who has the responsibility for mowing the lawn. Now, I think the story goes that the council on one side has decided just to mow the lawn and on the other side it hasn't because it's a state responsibility. And when Jackie Felgate talked about this, this is where I think Jess has been really clever, Jess and her team are being really, really clever, is they went, "Ah, here's a great media opportunity. This is great PR." They went out and got a bunch of lawn mowers. It went like four of them or something and it said, "The deputy leader of the opposition David Southwick and Nicole Werner and others." And they go out in their high vies and they mow the lawn and then do this great clip on Instagram and all of the social media about how the state government can't even get the basics right and they haven't mowed the lawn. And when I told my husband how hilarious this story was or that they had done this, he goes, "Oh, but it didn't solve the problem, does it?" And I said, "Yes, it did. They mowed the lawn." They did the whole thing. I just thought it was great. And the other big win that Jess had, which the images are just fantastic, because I think that their images in relatability and Jess being one of us and because she's quite like, she's quite a put together person, right? Like she's very polished and very articulate. Anyway, she goes down to Phillip Island and I'm not a rev head. There's like, what is it, the Moto GP or something like it's some motorbike thing that happens to Phillip? Yeah. And so I think that the state government has threatened to defund it because obviously that don't probably don't have any money. And so she's gone down there and got on a motorbike and like her photos from this thing are like her with her arms up in that kind of like, you know, we're going to fight this kind of thing, but she's got like a helmet on her head and she's in full letters. And it's just this real like, like, she can really speak to a different crowd with that. So whoever is running her social media right now, I mean, I know who was running her social media, but I don't know if it's the same person, but a tent, like, let's have a beer of five stars. It's so good and keep it coming because it's really great, really great content. It's an interesting reflection. I obviously live up in the Masad and Ranges and my one of my upper house MPs, obviously, Georgie Purcell, animal justice party, who is the most popular on social media across all politicians in Victoria. So very interesting that, you know, again, a young, young woman putting out stories at a very personal, very real, very kind of understandable. And the fact that we potentially have gone beyond the polish of social media and we're kind of after realities and sort of what was good again. It's interesting as well. On the premier social media, obviously, the weekend we've just had was Pride weekend and Pride March in Victoria. And so the premier is out marching in Pride March as well and making some comments in relation to who does or who doesn't support the LGBTI community and what that means. And, you know, there's a bit of an argument with her and a journalist. I think, I think it was a journalist from the Herald Sun, but I'm not 100% sure as well, which is trying to show a much more sort of personal leaning into a community being front and center and being representative. Do you think social media is going to have as much of an impact in the Victoria elections at the end of this year? Obviously, you've got great MPs like, as said, Georgie Purcell, the premier painting, a story of sort of leadership in social media, Jess Wilson getting cut through with a MotoGP or mowing on, what's that impact going to be this election in Victoria and more general and politics? Well, yeah. And so I think it was the Australian, with the premier, and I've just done a little search now, but it was Australian. So she basically, she was criticised for using disputed transgender youth suicides statistics to avoid legitimate questions during a press conference. And so, look, I mean, I think at the end of the day, I think it's kind of easy for Jess to win the social media game because she's sort of, she's so new, you know, and she's so fresh, whereas it's much harder for the premier, who, you know, is, I would say, not very popular right now, regardless of like, you know, because the opposition needs to win a lot of seats in the next election, like, let's just be real, like it's a lot of seats you've got to win, and it doesn't matter how deeply unpopular the government of the day actually is, you know, obviously you want to win, but at the same time, a more balanced government would be a good scenario for Victoria. And yeah, the premier at the moment is just so unpopular that it's hard for her to win at the social media game because like, the story like this is just, you know, throw that out there and people really grab onto it, whereas Jess is sort of fresh and new and doesn't have that baggage in the same way. So I think it is much easier for her to win, you know, at this social media game if it was a competition, which it is, because the election day, that is a competition to win coming up. How many days it is? What are we in February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, November, nine months, nine months, a long time in politics, you know, and, you know, maybe, you know, if I was, you know, like if you sit back and think about it, it's just in to Alan the right person to take Labor to the election. The whole like Dan Andrews just into Alan era of Labor politics, I think people are really sick off. And so if you're a Labor strategist, would you not sit there and go, do we need a fresher change of the guard to take Labor to the next election? I think that's, you know, I think there's real validity in that and I think that that's what the Libs, despite their own issues, which, you know, a well-documented, I don't need to repeat. They've actually done a refresh quite well. So like that image with Jess out, except for David Southwick, who's been around for a very long time, you're like, ah, this is like a, this is a very different brand, very different brand of Liberal to what we've seen in previous elections. So do you think though on that point, because obviously there's, there's the style and then there's the substance and then there's the social media in between as well. But do you think the Liberal Party will be able to hold it together? We obviously see that Sam Groff has, who was the former deputy leader of the Liberal Party Victoria. On his LinkedIn allegedly already has open to work on his LinkedIn and rumors of a potential by-election before sitting out the November election this year. Do you think the Liberal Party in Victoria will hold their politics together long enough to get to the election? And do you think we're going to get any more crazy sort of far-right inserts into Victorian politics? You know, Allah, some of the more religious extreme elements of the Liberal Party that have brought debates over things that are really settled in Victoria, abortion, you know, youth age. I think that stuff in the Liberal Party is settled. I mean, there will be, obviously there will be pre-selections and, you know, that'll be up to the local constituents. But I think that all the local members, but I think that a lot of this stuff is, I don't see a radical, right wing on mass in the state coalition right now. But what I think you're right, the good thing about Sam Groff leaving now is that it's eight months out from the election and saying that, you know, he wanted to step back and he didn't want to contest the next election. I think that's a, as someone who didn't come from a political background, it's a really good reflection. It's a really, really hard slog. We all know that. We've all been around and inside the tent enough to see how that is, you know, if it's not suiting you and your family and it's been horrific for their family, making that decision to step back is a wise one. And I think that, you know, you'll see people in Labour who step back as well. I think that's normal. I think that I think that where we're settling now with those decisions, I think this is, this is the team that you'll see in November on election day. Yeah. And plus all the other pre-selections happening around it. Yeah. I think the contrast of that is there will probably be a substantial change in Labour, maybe in March or maybe after the budget, sort of late May and June. As there's a lot of MPs and ministers who like, okay, I've done my time. I've done my cycle. And it's going to be a tough election, right? Like they're walking into a tough one for Labour. And predicting potentially as said, a reshuffle and quite a few changes. And obviously we still have the upper house pre-selection for both parties in Victoria. So, but what we will do is we'll share some of the social media grabs as well on this podcast. Have a bit of a listen to some of the great ones from Georgie Purcell and Animal Justice, the premier's won over the weekend with the Australian as well as Jess Wilson mowing the law. You're going to dispute the higher rates of suicide amongst transgender kids, because we know that transgender kids are 15 times more likely to commit suicide. So, I would hope Rachel. I would hope Rachel. Well, you're going to dispute the higher rates of suicide amongst transgender kids. This is the grass, the Labour government can't afford to mow. It seems this into Alan can't do her job, so they're here to do it for her. This is the government, they can't even drink a basis. Because it fails, the man needs to go. And if he can't get the little things right, he can't get the big things right. This week, this dog started a race leading the pack, running up to 70 kilometres per hour. And now, she's dead. Phil and Free was just two years old. And she's Victoria's first on track death for 2026. After collapsing and dying, she has a winning post at sand down. And while Feeling Free is a first dog to die on the track, she's actually not the first dog to die from racing this year. So it's really great that you have joined us again this week. And please remember as well, if you've enjoyed this podcast, give us a five star rating. We would very much appreciate that as well. And look forward to continuing the discussion for another week, finding the centre, having discussions and insights on politics, national, regional and international. I'm at truly great to be here. Cheers to that. This podcast is proudly brought to you by Tank, helping not for profits and civil society engage better with government across Australia.