On the Sheet: Kevin Woodley on Hellebuyck Starting, Bobrovsky, and More
from The Sheet with Jeff Marek
32m 30s
Conor Hellebuck’s early debut with the New Jersey Devils is met with cautious optimism, as adapting to a new team and system—especially reading teammates’ tendencies—requires significant time. His exceptional game awareness, likened to a computer and a slinky, allows him to anticipate plays with precision, but his performance is heavily influenced by the defensive environment. In Winnipeg, where the Jets were a strong defensive team, Hellebuck faced fewer high-quality chances, whereas in New Jersey’s more open system, his shot quality is statistically 15–30 goals better. Florida emerges as a top fit due to its proactive elimination of broken plays and east-west chances—opportunities Hellebuck excels in. The analysis underscores that goalie performance is not just a function of raw talent but of environmental context, with metrics like adjusted save percentage and shot quality revealing hidden patterns. Jake Gottenger’s strong playoff record contrasts with his regular-season underperformance, suggesting environmental and situational factors mask his true potential. A subtle shift in his game—such as increased fluid movement ("recoil")—may be contributing to improved results. Ultimately, the discussion highlights that elite goal-tending requires both innate intelligence and strategic defensive environments, with adaptability—symbolized by the "feet-like-jello" metaphor—being more crucial than rigidity.
It is game time for the New Jersey Devils with their Gold-Tender Conor Hellebuck, facing
off against the Dallas stars.
One of many gold-tending topics we'll discuss with Kevin Woodley from Ingoal magazine and
NHL.com.
I want to get to Caligary.
I want to get to a couple of other places here at Kevin, but first, are you surprised
at all?
Do you raise an eyebrow at all at Conor Hellebuck starting so soon for the New Jersey Devils?
Yeah, a little bit, I guess.
Listen, at the end of the day, coming in after a season starts is a little bit like trying
to catch a moving train.
We saw James Rhymer last night after he had some time in the American League coming off
a shuttered in the American League.
I think the other example I'd point to to is Jeremy Swainman.
How could that guy's been in the National Hockey League?
What's the one exception?
That's the year he missed training camp.
Then on the flip side, you got to get him in there at some point.
He's a savant when it comes to reading the game.
Part of me is he's going to figure it out quicker than everybody else.
He's one of the best goalies in the league, if not the best of the past whatever, six, seven
years, for a reason.
But then the flip side of that, too, is like I'm like, when you're reading the game, it's
not just about reading opponents.
It's not just about systems.
There's only so many variations in systems, and goalies figure those out quickly.
It's about being able to read off teammates and their tendencies within the system.
When's this guy going to do what he's supposed to do?
At what point in a rush does he pinch that rush off on the puck carrier?
Is it blue line?
Is it top of circle?
Is it closer to dots?
Like all these little intricate details that go into reading and anticipating a game for
a goal tender, when you change teams, it takes a little while to get comfortable.
The example I always go back to, and it's an old one, was actually Ryan Miller with Nikita
Triampkin.
And it was like two thirds of the way through his season.
And there was a question about Nikita's game developing and where he was at.
And Ryan, like, again, two thirds of the way through his season answered in that he was
finally comfortable reading off of him.
And I was like, "Oh, it smells really like we're two thirds of the way through his season,
and you're just now comfortable with his tendencies."
And that really was an eye opening moment for me in terms of how long it can put saying
it's going to take Connor Halibut, because this is the other line we have about Connor Halibut.
And I go back to Hashtag.
They said of Hashtag, we said of Hashtag, I'm going to say we, because someone had this
line originally, and it wasn't me, so I don't want to pretend to take credit.
Brain like a computer, body like a slinky.
Connor Halibut has the brain like a computer.
That's a great line, Kevin.
Who said that?
Maybe it was awesome.
I don't know.
Maybe it was spine like a slinky, but Halibut reads the game at the same level.
Like, I truly believe like there are a few and far between, and we've had the privilege
at Ingle of sitting down and doing video with him.
And like literally Pucks are coming over the blue line on an odd man rush.
And before the guy holding the puck is at the top of the circle, sometimes within a couple
feet of getting in the zone, he's not only telling you where he's shooting, like he's
giving you all the indicators, like whether he's shooting or passing, but where he's shooting.
And why?
Like he thinks the game at an unbelievable level.
It's quite something to behold.
And you talk to Wade Flaherty, the goalie coach in Winnipeg, you talk to Eric Connery,
some of his former teammates, they're just blown away by his ability to anticipate.
And the thing I can't answer is how long it takes him to get comfortable anticipating
not off the opposing team, but off of his own team.
Oh, yeah.
Totally new to outside of Brendan Dillon, he's never played with any of these guys before
on the blue line.
What, one of the questions I had about hella buck is what happened last year, because he
wasn't hella buck.
And was it as simple as the knee not being right, mean he played quite well in one particular
game that I'm pretty happy about.
Never happened, never happened.
But the rest of the time, at the rest of the time, he wasn't really himself with the
jet. So when you look back at that season, is that the beginning of a downward trend
age wise, or was it maybe chalked up to him not being right physically?
Hmm.
Okay.
There's a couple parts to this, guys.
First.
Settle in.
Here we go.
Woodley's warming up.
Here we go.
This is the good stuff.
Up until the point of the knee surgery, up until that point.
So obviously early in the season, but not nothing, like I think it was well over a month
before he had it.
He was performing at a slightly better level relative to environment by clear side end,
give clear side end.
Well, it's a shout out here because that's where I measure my shot quality.
They give me access under the hood.
He was actually performing better up till the knee surgery than he was the year he won
the heart and the best.
Now you probably couldn't see it on the Ron numbers, because last year was the worst environment
he had in Winnipeg.
Okay.
It was still a decent environment, but it was the worst he had.
This is also the caveat.
His environment up in last year in Winnipeg, like I said, the previous like seven or eight
years, amongst starters, amongst you know, minimum 2000 shots.
If you were race last year, if you include last year, it was the fifth best environment
of the NHL.
If you were race last year, it was the best.
So the jets were a really good defensive team and not only were they good defensively,
but they were very good at eliminating the types of plays that were relative weaknesses
for the best goal in the world.
And I use the term relative there.
It is very important because it's not like when I look at counterhella bucks career long
sort of scoring chart and all the different types of scoring chances, like there are literally
no pure weaknesses.
So everything is just relative to strengths.
You know what I mean?
There are no red numbers on his scoring, like all the different types of scoring chances
that clear side tracks, red numbers means you're below expected.
There are no red numbers on the main scoring attributes.
There are just some that are more blue than others, right?
Like he's more dominant.
So again, I don't want to say weaknesses.
The key here is relative, but they were really good at taking away his relative weaknesses
and letting him see the types of chance that he was unquestionably the best goal in
the world left.
What happened in the playoffs quite often, there were some of those types of chances would
go from maybe top three in the league defensively at those types of chances and all set in the
playoffs when teams are trying to get to those chances more.
I remember one year, and I'm trying to remember exactly which one it was, but having the
discussion with people in Winnipeg afterwards because they were upset, again, the number,
it hadn't gone well, and they were blaming Halibut.
And I'm like, listen, these types of chances, you were third in the league all season out
of the 16 playoffs teams in that round, you were 16 out of 16.
So it's not just about your overall numbers, your overall environment.
And for the record, Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen's environment last year in New Jersey
was 12 point, and they're expected to say percentage, 12 points lower than what Connor
Halibut had in Winnipeg.
So the environment is more difficult, but it's not just about the overall, you've got
to get granular.
We've actually got a piece up right now at Ingoal Magazine that we can actually at Clear
Site take, they can take, sorry, Golly A and plug them into Team X and see what it spits
out.
And for the past two seasons, Connor Halibut and Jacob Markstrom's shot environment in
New Jersey is between 15 and 30 goals better than what the devil's got.
So there's an improvement there.
But at the devil's start giving up the types of chances that play to those relative weaknesses,
you're not going to see it as much.
And to go to your big game, Greg, what did the Canadians not create much of in that game?
East, West, chances.
Empty their goals.
Was it a shot?
Empty their goals for me, Kevin, can I throw that one there?
Yeah, but that's an East West chance.
Let's look at how many East West chances, right?
He got a cross on one.
He made a brilliant, like, save of the USA hockey generation on the other with the paddle
save, but a reachback paddle save, like, you get credit for that, but you're not making
it very often.
And then the third one can be missed.
So now what happens, because I know that there were people in Winnipeg on that coaching
staff when he came back that we're like, if we get that guy, we can get in the playoffs.
Well, guess what?
If you're given up seven or eight East West chances of game, you're not getting that
guy.
Not just because that's a relative strength or weakness and more, there's a higher percentage
of those chances will connect.
You can't stay set and square on the puck carrier, like, you can't play as confidently on
the guy with the puck.
If you're worried about that backdoor pass getting through seven or eight times instead
of three.
And it's just a little microcosm of the types of chances we look at when we're assessing
whether he'll fit.
Yeah.
And Merrick, it wasn't a complete loss for McKinnon.
He got a lovely stuffed animal.
And ever since then, ever since then, he's wanted to beat everybody up in the NHL.
I still think that's a, he's still pissed.
I was a little like, taking it out on him's and Clark.
I one of my favorite comments about the Rupert Hens fight was that he looked over and
Rupert Hens became a small stuffed animal at one point during the fight and just pruned
pounding on him.
So Kevin, so here, again, this is all just like completely theoretical, although you have
evidence behind your theories, unlike me and Greg here.
When you looked at all the teams that Conor Halibuk could have gone to, you know, like we
had Eric Tolsky on the program yesterday, Carolina.
We wonder about the Buffalo Sabers, Utah is another one.
Of all the team, Florida, you know, some talk about that while ago.
Of all the teams that were rumored around, because there was a lot of swirl around who
where Halibuk was going to go, of all those teams, what do you think the best fit for him
would have been?
and maybe the answer just New Jersey, but from your point of view.
of you, is there a best fit of all the teams that we heard swirling around the Olympic
gold medalist?
So, interestingly enough, I listened to all the, I loved listening to Sonny Meta talk
about this, and he's right, it wouldn't have mattered, and I think the fact that so many
of those teams were smart analytical teams, teams that we always used to say don't spend
on gold tending, the fact they were in on this guy, tells you that there is separation
at the top, and Connor Hellerbuck is clearly on that list, now maybe not to the same degree,
like I saw a story where the public numbers had him like 45 or 40 plus goals better than
Jake Gottenger.
Clearside Analytics actually has him a close second to Igor Shashirkin over the last
seven or eight years, like when you actually properly measure shot quality, the gap isn't
as big of the public model suggests, but at the end of the day, this guy's in the elite
category, he's in a difference maker category, and I think he would have made a difference
regardless of where he went, minus maybe the Vancouver Canucks, which might be the worst
defensive environment, not just this season, but starting to see some numbers that say
it might be the worst defensive environment, at least especially for Kevin Lyck in the
last ten years.
So out of that group, though, top ahead without having the, being able to plug him into
each and every environment, using the crease swap feature at Clearside, because I don't
have the bandwidth not stalling on you guys like I am on my own screen right now, but top
ahead would be Florida.
Because all the things that they do and take away defensively east west, broken plays,
and this is another one, like what do you do if you've got the best goal center in the
history, maybe one of the best in the history of the game at reading the plays when it comes
playoff time.
You take away his eyes and you create a bunch of garbage in front of him that he can't
read off of, right?
Like it's all about getting broken plays.
What did we see skyrocket last season in the playoffs in terms of scoring type chances
and goals produced from broken plays?
Florida does a great job of eliminating broken plays.
They take care of the front of the net.
These are little things that are going to be like the, he is a great fit at the devil's.
Like I said, 15 to 30 goals better by the numbers alone.
It doesn't always translate that way, but we're talking about a monster jump.
The degree to which you will see improvement, the degree to which he will have success will
depend on how much of those sort of micro stats you can manage in his favor versus the other
way.
And that's about the defensive environment.
Getting Florida out of that group would have been the best fit.
Buffalo, New Jersey to a certain extent, although it's been better lately, Utah, think they're
just too loose.
Yeah.
Let me ask you a non-hell book question.
Of these three goalies, whose future, whose future are you most concerned about?
Yakovdovish, Dustin Wolf, Ukepek, a Luke, and in.
Oh man, put me on a spot with your questions up.
Gooleenians are going to come pull my car.
What do we do?
We're here.
I'm Joe.
OK, so we ask the tough questions.
Well, we'll soften up.
Which is the next US goal-tender to bail on Canada, Cooley or Fowler?
Listen, Joel is an incredible talent.
There's some aggression in his game that I think is vital to his game, and yet in a league
where it's so East-West, and there's so much dynamic movement, I just don't know how much
aggression get away with it, but I don't worry about him other than I think Jacob Fowler
might quickly show us he's one of the best goalies in the national hockey league.
I was on the ice.
He's got some competition.
Yeah, like this summer, with him and Jeremy swimming in Boston at a hockey conference,
and just listening to Jeremy talk about Jacob was like, when your peers regard you in
that light, you're like, so he was my pick.
Also, outside of Devin Cooley, Jacob Fowler had the second best adjusted safe percentage
in the national hockey, small sample for him and Cooley, but those were one in two last
year and adjusted safe percentage.
Hang on, hang on.
I want that to sink in, because you and I talked about this in the summer, and my jaw
hit the ground.
What you just said, like the part about Cooley and the part about Fowler and adjusted
safe percentage, because we were having a conversation in the summer about which goal tenders
are going to be the next one to pop.
Because you're Kevin Woodley, you nailed it on both, and you're like, this is what supports
my feeling going into the 26, 27 season.
Just the point about the adjusted safe percentage, Calgary and Montreal.
I guess the point would be you've outed me, Merrick.
It's not because I'm Kevin Woodley.
It's because Stephen Valakette gives Kevin Woodley access before signing the Olympics.
As a predictive measure, we talk about goal tending, being voodoo and all those things,
and I think a large part of it is because the environment changes, which makes one goalie
to the next team so hard to predict, and that's why I like the crease swap feature.
We can at least say, "Hey, here's all his relative strengths.
Here's all his relative weaknesses.
How many of those chances is he going to see behind this team and what types of performances
have they gotten before, just to go back to Hellabuck?"
As much as he was 15-30 goals better on East West plays across the middle of the ice, Jacob
Marksham was 8 goals better.
If the devil's all of a sudden decide we've got Connor Hellabuck, we don't need to dispense
and they start giving up East West rush chances and stops on.
That's going to get turned on its ear, but environment matters and how a goalie performs
relative to it matters.
We all hear goals saved above expected.
That's a cumulative stat.
In small samples, I go to adjusted safe percentage.
I've talked about clear sites, only people I trust when it comes to the best measurement
of shock quality and how a goalie performs relative.
That's your adjusted safe percentage.
You couldn't see how good Kulie was last year because by the end of it, they were the
worst team in the NHL defense.
But he was that good.
Number one.
And Jacob Fowler, again, small sample size, had the second best adjusted safe percentage
in the entire national hockey league.
So when you combine that with conversations with his peers around the league about how good
he can be, it makes it easy for me to say, "He's my guy as a breakout."
I didn't say Devin Kulie in large part because I thought the flames, if they continued that
downward trajectory defensively, and it looked like they were going to early this season
a bunch of crooked numbers, I didn't think you'd be able to see it in that defensive environment.
They've tightened up a little bit and go back to Gray's question because I'm not actually
bailing on it.
I'm not worried about Dustin Wolf because he had this exact same start last year, Greg,
like terrible October.
By the end of the season last year, he was eighth in the league and adjusted safe percentage.
The Calgary flames, again, nobody could see it because of what they were defensively.
The only team in the NHL with two goalies inside the top 10, I think because of the environment,
nobody realized how good the bounce back was.
Now Wolf and the flames, I got to figure out October, because it's a bad one again, but
the fact he's bounced back from it, before it tells me he'll bounce back from it again,
which leaves obviously UPL is the only guy I haven't talked about.
I believe in his talent, his size, and some of the adjustments he's made in his game.
There seems to be an on again, off again for him one year to the next, and we've seen
that.
We've seen it with Philip Gustafson, Craig Anderson.
I think right now it's a double whammy, all the pressure that comes with his name being
mentioned, the expectations around the savers, expectation can change a lot of things for
gold.
The truth is, from an expectation standpoint, the defensive environment hasn't been nearly
good.
It wasn't as good.
It's not seemed to have the attention of that group defensively to the degree they did
last season.
Maybe it's personnel.
Maybe it's attention.
He's in a tougher spot.
He's being asked to do more.
Hopefully, now that the Hellabuck thing is gone, he can just relax and play his game, because
he's a really good goalie, really smart goalie, too.
So one of the great things about talking to you with your background and access to information
and the ability to synthesize everything and put frames around it so we can understand
it, is it really gives me a good chance to remind myself that our lies lie to us, our
eyes lie to us.
My eyes do all the time.
So here's what I'm wondering about, Sergei Babroski.
Our eyes lying to us, or is this just how the oldest goalie in the NHL plays regardless
of who it is?
OK, so you can see by my background because it doesn't have three Hall of Fame goalie
jerseys.
Where's all the Dryden stuff?
Where's all the Ken Dryden?
Oh my gosh.
Don't make me take off my shirt to show you the Dryden stuff.
We've done that one.
It's true.
He's got the sweet Drydening.
It's great.
So I don't have everything in front of me right now, and I'm away, so I don't have the
same access, because I'm just visiting my in-laws here.
OK, so let me frame it this way.
But is the concern legit?
Is the concern legit?
Up until last night, so I don't have those numbers, and I didn't watch that game.
And I did see a couple of highlights.
It looked like he got me clean up the rest a couple of times, so I grinned.
He was actually performing right around league average, right around expected, OK?
The problem here may be expectations.
Because in all but one of his seasons in Florida, during the regular season, he was below
expected.
Like that's the reality of the math.
We know how good he is and how good he can be.
We've seen playoff Bob.
They don't win two Stanley Cups without playoff Bob.
His ability to make momentum changing saves that shift not only a game, but a series that
come out of nowhere in wild, crazy, like spectacular scoring chance situations is unquestioned.
His ability to consistently perform an outperformer's environment, the reality is the numbers have
said it really has
been there in all but one of the like he had one season above expected in Florida in the regular season.
I think part of the problem here is Toronto's expecting playoff Bob and regular season Bob like
it's hard to sort of rise to that level as consistently. I actually see again without last night's
numbers or a really close watch of it what I saw up until that point was a guy who was actually
outperforming what he'd done in Florida like this is kind of maybe who you should expect the problem
maybe our expectations or Toronto's expectations around him at least based on the regular and
again there's no denying the talent right there's no denying the discipline there's no denying
what he does for people around him who see him train and raise the bar like an active and all those
things right like there's no denying any of that this guy's a first ballot hall of famer but the
reality of the regular season numbers are the reality of the regular season numbers and they're
adjusted for shot quality we talked about Florida and how great an environment it would have been
for hell about like he's been slightly or at times last year way below expected for a while here
he's actually performing better than he has in a lot of the years in Florida we just you know we just
can't see it. The last one for me and I feel like we've been a bunch of Debbie Downers here asking
you about goalies that it played up let's it up let me ask you about a goalie who's playing
extremely well. Jake Gottenger has never been a finalist for the Vezonatrophy which is kind of
crazy when you think about Jake Gottenger's reputation in this league. Is this the year not not
necessarily to maybe win it but at least to be a finalist for it. Why not win it like why not
win it that's how good he's been and I give Steven Valakette and Clearside Analytics credit for me
being able to predict things I want to make sure I give credit here to Jesse great Jesse Granger of
the Athletic who had a great piece with Jake about one of the changes he's made in this game. To go
back to the numbers first Greg we talk about defensive environment in our piece at Ingol Mag looking
at Conor Hellbuck's environment and Winnipeg when I talk about including last season like without
last season it's the best goal-tending environment of the previous like seven or eight years combined.
Add in last season the down year and he drops to fifth that's how bad the jets were tied for him
in fifth and that time frame is Jake Gottenger. The environment's been great for goal-tending
a Dallas. The reality of the past four seasons now in the regular season and this kind of ties into
the Bob conversation is Jake has basically performed at a league average level relative to environment.
We talk about reputation remember what he did in his first playoff with Dallas against Calgary
that incredible series. You see him move you everything about him says he should be a perennial
vessel trophy favorite. He's been to three Western conference finals so this isn't
a negative at all but again the reality when I looked at the numbers is they never matched to your
point Jeff the i-test right like if you watch him and you're like this is what all goalies should be
he has and I'd recommend go reading the Grainger piece. Since he met Mike Buckley at the Olympics
with Team USA Buckley this was the only part that Jesse didn't necessarily have right was the
phrasing. Lina Salmart called it recoil they call it recoil embossed Mike Buckley calls it motion
and so it is an ever so slight releasing of the edges and a little bit of backwards drift.
Not off a rush chance goalies have always well this is changing too but traditionally goalies have
gone out off the rush and retreated and tried to match the flow of the play like like a break way
and things like that. For the longest time and I think Jake Jake's one of these goalies all we would
hear about goaltening in zone is set square set square set square get there be set be square be
still and so there are some goalie coaches that have started to have a lot of success and again
all Mark that's 21 the Vesna trophy we had an article on it on recoil this idea that when the
puck's even at the point you know rather than being set in square we can release our edges and
maybe get two three inches of backwards flow and that may not seem like much but at a time when
that guy at the point my slap pass it to your left to a tip option or a high tip option fake make
a pass throw it into a bunch of bodies and it never even gets to you for rebounds are easy compared
to broken plays rebounds at least it hit you and you got an idea where it is broken plays you
have no it doesn't hit you it hits the sea of traffic in front of you when you're set in square
you're kind of lot and Jake has a tendency to play really wide I know pre scouts from other teams
they would wait for him to drop from his mid stance into that wide stance because as soon as he did
it became relatively immobile like the wider you get the harder it is to move and so it's also hard
to get rotation and you didn't have a lot of rotation in his recovery so there was an exposure
there that teams when you have the level of success he's had in terms of playing a lot nothing
exposes a goleg playoffs you get a pre scout built against you and so teams would go after that
tendency by just getting a little bit of backwards flow a little bit of that motion or recoils
they call it in Boston I think in I think in Nashville they call it teeter just a little bit of
movement you don't get stuck as much you're able to recover if that puck hits a leg you're able
to recover if they go for a slap pass it adds a little bit of rotation easier rotation and mobility
to a goal tender who like I said at the beginning when you watched him it's like he has every tool
to be the best in the league the size the athleticism so why are the numbers telling us he wasn't
well I think this is a great case of why goalie sometimes take longer you pick up things along the
way and in this case the trip to the Olympics may not have gone how he wanted in terms of playing time
did come home with a goal battle which I know Greg is excited about but he also picked up something
in his game that nobody else had introduced to him and credit to Jesse for spotting it and having
that conversation it makes perfect sense to me but I do but not just Jake off to a great start
on a heater I believe there's a subtle adjustment in his game that's contributing to this and the
numbers are off the chart so why not win a best night this is so fascinating to me like I want to
follow up with like how much you know sacrifice on a on a posture you're giving if you're always
sort of in motion but I got like two seconds to ask your question and going back to our initial
conversation about Conor Halibuk vis-a-vis locking in right you were talking about why'd stand
to that and you're in locking in your skates a couple years ago in that series against the St. Louis
Blues Conor Halibuk looked locked like that he that he couldn't move and the blues kept going
east west and he couldn't go with it and there are fire and balloons from the point and I was like
man Halibuk looks like he's just locked into his skates I don't know how much you remember from
that series but is that it like was think he would back in his net they're firing him from the
point and scoring and he just seemed like he was locked into his skates is that accurate
you know what I mean maybe a little bit but like like I don't think Conor's going to add for
Conor plays deep Conor holds his edges as well as anyone right like I actually think he plays
a pretty narrow butterfly and so if he got locked that may have just been the reads that may have
been the broken plays I know there was a you know in that series I remember there was a point shot
that beat him short side high that's where he had flat okay so that's the goal one of the goals
you're thinking about that's one of the goals that we all went like he's like frozen in his boots
can move okay so so but I don't think that's locked in low and wide and I know the goal you're
talking about and so if you look at if you wide angle it and blow it out there's a backdoor guy
coming in there's a backdoor threat and so what do you do as a goalie I can stay set and square
on the guy at the point or if I think he's gonna throw that puck to that backdoor threat how do
I how do I set myself up to handle that I probably get a little deeper I probably flatten out my
backside so I don't have to have as much rotation to make that push if you blow that out and watch
the whole zone I think this is a case where him reading the game and I had this conversation with
someone that would have gone over that video that believes the same thing that was a case of
those reads and being so incredible at seeing things ahead of time where it caught up to him where
he was he he he tipped over the edge and he set himself up for a play that never happened
but very much could have he was so far ahead with his reads guy throws the puck at the net now he's
there's there's bodies in the lanes which doesn't help but he's flattened out and he's exposed
that short side height may have gone in anyways even if he was set in square because of the
bodies that were in the lane and I listen I'll give you this stat layered screen so multiple layers
between you and the shooter if you hit the top corner on a layered screen as that shot was
everyone's like add that terrible goal and I do think he got caught cheating a little bit
if you hit the top corner on a layered screen in the national hockey league it goes more in more
often than a break away it's over 40% and that was a layered corner in the top corner of the net
yes 40% yes wow over 40% and I haven't checked the numbers this year that I checked and remember
checking it last year okay it was actually a goalie coach yeah I'm not going to say who it was a
goalie coach that texted me he's like hey I'm curious this chance we didn't even we we had this
chance the other goalie made a miraculous save I'm he's like I'm up here watching this game
and I watched this guy come through all this traffic one side of a screen to the other multiple
bodies and he picks this thing out of the air with his blocker it's labeled our team in terms of
scoring our offensive chances didn't even mark it down as a scoring chance for us and I'm looking at
it as a goalie coach I'm like this is a dangerous chance and so I plug it in a clear site and it's a
layered screen it's a mid-danger chance normally but you can also go into clear site and look at every
chance historically and now pick a quadrant of the net either top corner I put it there that thing
rocketed up to 40% so when you have a queen Hughes back there at the point who has an ability to
sort of menu.
manipulate time and space and traffic,
and then throw an 80 mile an hour sifter
into the top corner of the net.
Those go in, if you can hit the, again,
hitting the net is the art form here
because there's a ton of bodies between you and it.
But if you do, 40 plus percent.
Boys, I know I gotta go, and I know you gotta go,
but I wanna give you one last quote.
- Go, yeah, yeah.
- I wanna give you a quote.
Okay, this is, 'cause this was in an Ingol magazine article
about Jeff the idea of being set in square,
and what do you give up if you're moved.
This is Mitch Corn, who has, of course, five time,
- Yeah. - Bees in a winning goalie coach,
Stanley Cup champion.
I hate the term set your feet.
If the puck is always moving,
how can we stay square by setting your feet?
When we set our feet, we become a brick wall
and cannot move or adjust.
The opposite is being totally fluid,
like water, where we are all over the place.
Where we need to be is yellow, solid enough,
and fluid enough.
One of my favorite Mitch Cornisms,
we used it in a feature this summer,
and that guy's the best, and that's the perfect example.
- So Bruce Lee was mind-like water,
and Mitch Corn is feet-like-jello.
- Feet-like-jello?
- That's what we're going for, Mitch Corn.
That's my one takeaway from this show.
That's it, I got my Kevin Woodley story,
feet-like-jello, here we go.
Thanks, pal, you'd be good.
- Overweight goalies like me,
or do you think we're ready for the NHL now?
I got the jello part down past.
You're the best, Kevin Woodley,
from the Ingle magazine in NHL.com.
♪ I said 16 hours last night ♪
♪ Every day this week, every day this month ♪
♪ I can't get out my head ♪
♪ I'm still ambitious day to day ♪
♪ 'Cause you can call it all right ♪
♪ I went to the dark man ♪
♪ He told me give me a little medicine ♪
♪ I'm like nothing, that's fine ♪
♪ I'm not against those madness but you ♪
♪ It's me myself and how this gonna be fixed in my mind ♪
♪ If you wanna break it ♪
♪ I turned out to be a bad man ♪
♪ I feel wanna break it ♪
♪ I feel like I need to take it ♪
♪ Listen up and I don't care if you still try to lose it ♪
♪ I've been on the dice to where I'm wrong ♪
(upbeat music)
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Conor Hellebuck’s early start with the New Jersey Devils is surprising but understandable, as adapting to a new team and system—especially reading teammates’ tendencies—takes time and can take several months to fully develop.
Hellebuck possesses elite game-reading abilities, often anticipating plays before they happen, with a brainlike computer and bodylike slinky agility that allows him to analyze opponents and his own team’s dynamics at a microscopic level.
His performance is highly dependent on defensive environment; in Winnipeg, where the Jets were a strong defensive team, he had fewer high-quality chances, but in New Jersey’s more open environment, his shot quality is statistically 15–30 goals better due to reduced exposure to his relative weaknesses.
Florida stands out as a potential ideal fit for Hellebuck due to its strong defensive structure that eliminates broken plays and east-west chances—types of opportunities where Hellebuck excels.
Goalie performance is not just about statistics but also about context
Jake Gottenger, despite strong playoff performance and reputation, has underperformed in regular-season shot quality, suggesting a gap between expectations and actual on-ice results—highlighting how defensive environments impact perceived performance.
A subtle shift in Jake’s game—such as increased "recoil" or fluid movement—may explain recent improvements, showing that minor adjustments can significantly impact performance and readability.
The metaphor of "feet-like-jello" captures the ideal goalie
Summary:
Conor Hellebuck’s early debut with the New Jersey Devils is met with cautious optimism, as adapting to a new team and system—especially reading teammates’ tendencies—requires significant time. His exceptional game awareness, likened to a computer and a slinky, allows him to anticipate plays with precision, but his performance is heavily influenced by the defensive environment. In Winnipeg, where the Jets were a strong defensive team, Hellebuck faced fewer high-quality chances, whereas in New Jersey’s more open system, his shot quality is statistically 15–30 goals better.
Florida emerges as a top fit due to its proactive elimination of broken plays and east-west chances—opportunities Hellebuck excels in. The analysis underscores that goalie performance is not just a function of raw talent but of environmental context, with metrics like adjusted save percentage and shot quality revealing hidden patterns. Jake Gottenger’s strong playoff record contrasts with his regular-season underperformance, suggesting environmental and situational factors mask his true potential.
A subtle shift in his game—such as increased fluid movement ("recoil")—may be contributing to improved results. Ultimately, the discussion highlights that elite goal-tending requires both innate intelligence and strategic defensive environments, with adaptability—symbolized by the "feet-like-jello" metaphor—being more crucial than rigidity.
FAQs
Goalies need time to build comfort with their teammates' tendencies and game reads. Even with elite skills, it takes time to understand subtle patterns like puck movement, passing intentions, and team formations.
A goalie's performance is heavily influenced by the defensive environment. Teams with strong defensive setups can limit the types of chances a goalie faces, which can significantly improve their shot quality and save statistics.
Florida is considered a top fit due to its strong defensive strategies that eliminate broken plays and East-West rushes—types of chances that Connor Hellebuck excels at reading and anticipating.
He has a highly analytical brain, capable of predicting plays before they happen, and anticipates both opponent and teammate tendencies with a level of precision that is rare among goalies.
Yes, due to a better defensive environment in Winnipeg, Hellebuck's performance was more favorable, with shot quality metrics suggesting he was 15–30 goals better than in New Jersey's more challenging setup.
While he has a strong playoff record, his regular-season performance has been near league average relative to shot quality. A subtle adjustment in his game—like recoil or motion—may be contributing to improved play, but the numbers don’t reflect the same level of dominance.
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