Omar raid, diesel deal pushback, prediction markets

Hi, I'm Tara Oaks, in the book. And I'm Christopher Walgespur in Chicago. It's Monday, October 12th, today. Immigration officers raid the home of Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, just weeks before the midterm elections. President Trump announces a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, but Kiev and Moscow haven't confirmed it. And we break down six key reasons why the Democrats might not get the blue wave they want in the midterms. This is Reuters World News, bringing you everything you need to know from the front lines in ten minutes seven days a week. U.S. immigration authorities have raided the DC home of Minnesota Democrat Ilhan Omar. The Justice Department says it's a part of an ongoing immigration fraud investigation. A source says the probe involves Omar's immigration paperwork, filed by her late father when she was a child. The raid comes just three weeks before midterm elections. Justice Department policy bars investigative actions that could affect the outcome of an election. Omar is a Somali-born progressive member of the House of Representatives and a frequent Trump critic. She's also up for reelection in November. She won her last race by a margin of 50 percentage points. As President Donald Trump travels to Ohio today, the first stop on a series of midterm campaign rallies that include Alaska, Arizona and Montana, a bipartisan group of senators are calling on Trump to scrap his diesel deal with Russia, saying it violates a 2022 law that bans Russian energy imports. Seven senators, four Republicans and three Democrats say the agreement gives Russian President Vladimir Putin a financial lifeline while Russia continues its war in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson insists the administration has legal authority and says the deal will lower fuel prices. Though analysts are skeptical it will bring sustained relief as the war with Iran continues to disrupt oil flow in the state of Hormuz. The backlash comes as Russia continues to strike Ukrainian energy targets, despite Trump's claim that an energy ceasefire has been reached. He posted the announcement on Truth Social, saying both sides have agreed I'm warning them not to break it. Now the Moscow nor Ukraine have confirmed the deal yet. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky saying he would welcome a ceasefire but still waiting for key details from Washington. The ceasefire claim follows days of US pressure on Kiev to stop attacking Russian refineries. Trump blaming those strikes for rising diesel prices, a growing political headache for the Republicans ahead the midterms. Yemen's Houthis have hit Saudi Arabia's rear to airport for the second day in a row. One person was killed and almost a dozen more wounded than a projectile hit the international airport. A day after a Houthis strike on the same airport killed at least 13 and wounded hundreds. That's according to Saudi authorities who also say air defences intercepted a cruise missile near the airport. Reads airport remains closed and schools in the capital have switched to remote learning this week. The Houthis are warning of more attacks if the Kingdom doesn't halt its air campaign in Yemen. President Trump has said the US is considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis. Two markets now and for what to look out for this week, here's Mike Dolan from our sister podcast, Warning Bit. Before we get to the outlook, we have to unpack the weekend, which is extremely noisy geopolitically, particularly on the diesel front, which President Trump attempted to get some waiver on Russian diesel exports to calm those prices. So we'll have to wait and see how that pans out. It doesn't look like there's a ceasefire between the two, but it is potentially important for the market. Now, we have a partial closure of the US markets on Monday, but we have a very busy week ahead. We have CPI on Wednesday, big bank earnings, third quarter earnings from the midweek on, and all against the backdrop of a very, very dangerous energy situation. Thanks, Mike. You can catch Morning Bit wherever you get your podcasts. Pope Leo is scheduled for surgery on Tuesday to remove a small growth on one of his lungs. The Vatican says the 71-year-old is in good health and kept a full schedule on Monday. The nodule was found during a routine checkup and is described as well-contained and caught early. Fewer than 5% of lung nodules prove cancerous, and doctors say the complication rate for removal is extremely low. Leo's transparency around the procedure marks a shift from his predecessor, Pope Francis, who often didn't announce hospital visits in advance. The Vatican says recoveries should take about a week. Democrats are heading into November 3rd mid-term elections, with many analysts and opinion polls predicting a blue wave could sweep the nation. They point to President Trump's approval ratings being weak, voters worrying about high prices, and many remaining unhappy with the Iran War. But reporter Tim Reed says a democratic wave is far from a sure thing. Here are six reasons why Democrats may not have a huge victory on November 3rd. The House Ballaghral map is much smaller than in recent years, so the scope for a big democratic victory there is smaller. The Senate is still a toss-up. There are potential problems with turnout among young voters in particular. Here is a huge money advantage Republicans have. They have much more cash to spend in the final weeks of the campaign than Democrats. Nobody doubts the Democrats are going to have a really good night. Everything is in their favour. Trump's incredibly unpopular. People are fed up with persistently high prices that don't like the war in Iran. But opinion polls have been consistently wrong in recent election cycles. And roughly speaking, in the last seven election cycles, I'm including midterm and presidential elections here, opinion polls generally have overstated democratic strength and understated Republicans' strength in five of the last seven races. And finally, Republicans and Donald Trump, they don't want to run on the economy because the economy is lousy, high prices and gas prices. They're focusing their closing argument by trying to portray Democrats as extreme, taken over by Socialists as un-American. And while that is an attempt to deflect from their economic record, there are some analysts who think that that might just sway enough swing voters in high races to make a difference. Most Americans are uncomfortable with the idea of betting on government affairs. That's according to a new voters' Ipsos poll, which reveals broad opposition to those prediction markets that let people wager on elections, military action and other government decisions. The findings cut across party lines and come as companies including Polly Market and Kalshi are growing rapidly. The poll adds a new dimension to an ongoing debate over whether these platforms are gambling operations or financial markets. Reporter Chris Prentice has more. So prediction market companies argue that their products are good for things like price discovery, hedging risk, also polling. What we found, though, is that people by and large view these products as gambling. There are these ads everywhere for these platforms. You can see them in our office in Times Square. You can see them on social media, on TV and they're everywhere. But what the number showed is that actually there's bipartisan majority of Americans who oppose using these markets, particularly to bet on things like US elections, military actions, basically government policy decisions and actions. I spoke to people who participated in the poll, both Democrats and Republicans, and what I heard was a lot of concern about insiders trading, so government officials or even people with inside information like news journalists. I think also people just had a real reaction to the idea of betting on real life events. They didn't like the idea of commoditizing all of that. But more on any of the stories from today, as well as more analysis and news shaping our world, check out rotors.com or the rotors app. There's a link in the description to download it and start getting pure news straight from the source. Don't forget to follow us on your favourite podcast player. If you're listening on a smart speaker, just ask for the latest news from rotors seven days a week. We'll be back tomorrow with our daily. headline so.