Oil CRACKS as Hormuz Flows SURGE—Dems’ Midterm Plan BLOWING UP?
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Oil prices are dropping sharply as global supply increases, driven by record flows through the Strait of Hormuz and new oil production from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. This shift undermines the Democrats' narrative of economic hardship, which has been central to their midterm strategy. The administration’s energy policies, including expanded pipelines and a $2.8 billion arms deal with Israel, reinforce U.S. resilience and diminish perceived threats from Iran and its proxies. Despite Democratic claims about affordability and public benefits, economic realities—including falling oil prices and a surge in energy output—challenge their messaging. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is enforcing stricter immigration rules, such as the public charge rule, which could displace welfare access for immigrants, sparking legal and political backlash. Critics argue these policies reflect a broader nationalist, capitalist stance emphasizing self-reliance and market-driven solutions. The Fed has raised interest rates to combat inflation, strengthening the dollar and slightly aiding oil price stability, though energy markets remain volatile. The political narrative is shifting: Democrats are seen as out of touch with real economic conditions, while the administration's energy and foreign policy actions signal confidence in a stronger, more self-sufficient economy. As the midterms approach, the affordability argument is exposed as ineffective, with oil prices down 3% and U.S. energy dominance proving resilient—creating a significant headwind for the Democratic campaign.
You know, this is not going to be the layup, the Democrats thought. No, Sirree. They thought they could waltz through midterms and that they were going to take it all, but something funny just happened. Oil prices started coming down, down, down, down, down, down, down. And they're going to be coming down even further. This I would say has put a little winkle in the Democrats' plan. It may just be blowing up in their entire face. It's welcome to the show, everyone. I'm Cheshiregan. Make sure you subscribe. Make sure you make a comment. Make sure you like. It helps the algorithm believe me, any way Democrats strategy very much right now, blowing up in their faces. And I say that because they are betting everything. They're betting the farm on the idea that there is so much inflation out there. Things are so, so bad. And that because oil just keeps going up, up, up in a way, that that is going to be the reason they're going to waltz through midterms, right? They keep talking about affordability and, you know, hey, don't get me wrong. Obviously, we've had a little bit of inflation, certainly at the pump, not a tremendous amount. When you look at core inflation, which is something we'll talk about later because you know the feds raising rates, et cetera, that also came out today. But I would say that this idea that somehow they can win based on affordability, this is about to be put to the test. And that's because just out today, here we go, ladies and gentlemen, the straight-of-hormouse is basically back open. The Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, coming out and saying today, that guess what? Yesterday, they had 18 million barrels traveling through the straight 18 million barrels. That's a lot. That's exactly what we were seeing pre-excursion, pre the war with Iran. I mean, that's right back to the levels we were at, and don't forget, we got a lot more where that came from. Thanks to Venezuela, thanks to what we're doing in Saudi Arabia. You know, hey, if we're lucky, we'll get Canada too, right? Alberto, we're looking at you. Here's Chris Wright. Iranian behavior, I will tell you, we've risen the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf to record highs right now. About 18 million barrels flowed out yesterday, basically pre-conflict levels. Oil production, we're fixing that problem. Refining is the bigger problem. That is impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the loss of refining capacity in Russia, and of course, we're still reeling from the Democrat-driven closure of refineries all across the United States. If we had all those refineries that were closed, we would have dramatically lower gasoline and diesel prices today, but we will fix that problem, but we can't unwind all the Democrat damage immediately. Well, which we could. Yeah. Okay, so what he's getting at, too, and believe me, there was a lot of Democrat damage because we've talked about this before, you're 9.1%. Feed on inflation, okay? That is a hard thing to walk back when it's followed by 6% and 5%. And so there was a lot of damage done, not to mention. You couldn't drill anywhere for goodness sakes for how long. And so we've got to unwind this stuff, but yes, there are challenges. You got Iran, but it's actually coming to some kind of dare I say conclusion here. I mean, look at what's happening in real time, you guys. We are actually getting 18 million barrels a day through. I mean, that's unbelievable, really and truly. I mean, the straight-ahormous never saw something. This is the biggest amount we have ever gotten through since this whole crisis began. So if we can actually start to see that on a regular basis, and if we can start to see more oil flow out of say, oh, I don't know, Venezuela, right? If we get more oil flowing out of the ground here in the US of A, then you're going to have oil, dare I say go and down, down, down, down, down, down, I mean, it's down what three percent and change today. By the way, the Fed helped, believe it or not. I mean, higher interest rates aren't all that bad when it comes to oil prices, we'll talk about that. But the headwinds are still out there, yes, I get it. The Iranians are getting desperate. The Iranians are getting really, really desperate. They know that we are now back at levels that we used to be at pre-war. And so they're getting a little anxious because you see the Iranians have one goal and one goal only at this point, not just to squeeze us as badly as they can, but to squeeze Trump as badly as they can. And therefore, to see the Democrats win at midterms. It's really kind of amazing how that all works out. Here is JD Vance actually just yesterday speaking about the Iranians on Tuesday there explaining how they're still at it. They're still at it. Those crazy Iranians. We've seen the Iranians shooting at commercial shipping even in the midst of peace negotiations. And I think the president has actually done the responsible thing here, which is to try to ensure that world energy markets, despite Iranian terrorism, continue to get that flow of oil and gas. Okay. So we're still going to get it. Again, we're back to normal as of yesterday. So you can understand why they're freaking out just a little bit more while they're trying to lob all these things and they're trying to take our drones. And that's why we've got a story out of Fox this afternoon. They tried to get a little crazy again, those crazy Iranians. And they started to act up. Well, you know what that's going to mean. New escalation around the Strait of Hormuz sources tell Fox that Iranian forces had a U.S. contract to ship with Americans on board. As Iran's security chief shuts down the prospect of new talks with Washington, a chief foreign correspondent, Trey Yanks reports live in Tel Aviv, the best of my recollection. The U.S. wasn't asking for talks, right? You're exactly right, John. And good afternoon. Sources do tell Fox News that Iran struck a U.S. contracted vessel around the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. We understand there were some minor injuries, including smoke inhalation. And those that were injured were taken to a regional Gulf country for treatment. Some U.S. personnel were on board. Washington around the Strait continues as reports indicate multiple explosions were heard around the critical waterway overnight. The Iranians claim they shot down another U.S. MQ-1 predator drone over the Strait. And we do know U.S. forces destroyed two Iranian boats this week that were trying to steal a U.S. C. drone. And the crazy Iranians tried to pull one more thing. This is a note that got put out by their guy who's like in charge of the war department over there at the IRGC he says don't get distracted by the U.S. President's McSignals from no negotiations to where ready to talk. He put this out this week, which is kind of strange, right? Because we're not willing to talk right now. We're not negotiating. It's over, guys. It's over. You blew it. All right. The stakes around oil and the straits have changed. Damage control won't stop what's coming, no talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period. Exclamation point. Oh my gosh. He's channeling, Trump. Literally, channeling, Trump, the Iranians have decided to mimic the post that Trump puts out on two social, but they're doing a really bad job at it. Anyway, it's delusional of him to even be saying that because we're no longer in negotiations. I mean, maybe some people would say, hey, if they were willing to fold, but I think the hand writings on the wall, I think it's pretty clear. We've already talked about this. Just go watch my show from like a week and a half ago. We talked about all the different pipelines, right? Many different pipelines, many different opportunities. We don't need Iran. We don't need the straighter hormones. We already have proven have we not that we can take it. We can just control it. We have 18 million barrels a day flowing through it. And that's all we need. Not to mention we got plenty in America. We're a net exporter. Don't forget. Of oil. And we got plenty coming out of Venezuela, more on that because another deal was announced today with a major energy company. I mean, we got a lot. And guess what? We're serious enough. You start threatening us. And I'll tell you, we will get down to business. I want to show you a new development just coming out today. This is massive. Okay. So the IRGC can take this. Trump just approved a $2.8 billion arm sale to Israel, including 40,000 one ton bombs. Whoa. That's my president, right? That's what I'm talking about. So just don't mess with us or Israel for that matter because we just did the largest arm steel that we've ever done with Israel. And he's doing this going into midterms, interestingly enough, amid all of this flak from the Mamdame's and the El Saeeds of the world and AOC's of the world, hating on him over Palestine, right? Again, think about the loyalties of these people. Would you for one second think about where they're really coming from? Are they loyal to the U.S. of anger? Are they loyal to Iran? Are they loyal to China? Are they loyal to basically the enemies of the USA? Because that's how it appears to me over and over and over again. But I'll tell you, they're freaking out. They're freaking out. And by the way, they should be because now that we're bringing the straight back to pre-war levels and we have that much more energy coming on board, the Democrats are going to be in trouble. I mean, oil prices down some 3% today and they do not like it. Their entire midterm strategy is based upon Donald Trump is bad for the economy, but that's not actually true. Again, Iran wants him to lose. Don't forget. Not for two seconds should you think that Iran trying to come through at the eleventh hour with something when they got nothing is all about they're trying to really put the pedals in the metal in the final moments before this midterm election because they want Donald Trump to lose to the Democrats and they want impeachment trials and this and that and the other. That's what they want. Okay. He knows it. I know it. You know it. He said this just the other day. We're going to find out. Mr. President. I think the war is going to end immediately after the election.
I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice week group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon. All they want is a nuclear weapon and if they had a nuclear weapon the whole world is in deep trouble. Are you still hoping for a nuclear deal? Secretary Wright said a nuclear deal might not be on the table anymore. No, I'm doing much more than a nuclear deal. There's a lot more than nuclear. We're going to have nuclear. That's 99.9, but there's going to be a lot of other things on the table that wouldn't have been on the table three months ago. Such as boom. In other words, yeah, there's a nuclear deal going on in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have come forward and asked the US for our help and it looks like we're going to give it. On top of which you've got a $2.8 billion deal, the largest deal ever done. This is, I mean, it's really, really massive. The largest deal ever done with Israel. And they've got 40,000 one ton bombs that they're getting now courtesy of Uncle Sam and the US of A. They're paying us for it. Don't forget, Donald Trump's not going to let them get away with that. They're paying us for it, but wow. So their security abilities going to go right up through the roof. So is Saudi Arabia. And what happens around gets squeezed out to the Democrats. They go back to, okay, they're all over this affordability thing, right? We saw some of the hearings yesterday. Remember, Ayanna Presley, she perhaps sort of captured the spirit if you would as she spoke to the Treasury secretary and went on and on about prices. And look, she's not wrong, but she's only going to be right for a day, basically. No, are you aware? Stop filibustering. American people are suffering. You know better. You go on television and you say the Trump's economic agenda is a great comeback. And that makes me question not only your integrity, but if you're operating in the same reality. Secretary Besson, the families in my district and across this country are struggling to afford a home, buy food, raise their kids, pay these high utility bills. And they deserve a government that's going to make their life easier, not harder. Okay. Well, I think you're actually kind of getting that. I mean, I reiterate the straight of Hormuz as of yesterday had 18 million barrels of oil going through it. That is a lot of oil, and that is exactly how much we used to have going through it. And now we have all these other deals on top of it. I mean, it's actually like a win-win win. And then we've talked about the pipelines. Again, they're building all the pipelines. And I realized the Houthis, you know, getting contracted by the likes of Iran or trying to do their damage out there. But Saudi Arabia came out today and said, hey, guess what? We're going to have our pipeline, the key pipeline back up in a couple of days. So the Democrats, they're desperate. And I'm just going to tell you this whole song and dance about affordability. It's about to go poof. It'll happen fast, not as fast as we want it. I get it. But, you know, here we are mid-September. We've got some time. We've got about six weeks, all right? And six weeks is a very valuable amount of time in politics. So even though you're looking, and look, I've looked at them too, and it's frustrating seeing the polls, and sometimes I even wonder if they're real. I mean, really, really? Tolerico in Texas? You're kidding me, right? You're kidding me. The guy that can just name a drag queen off the top of his head, just like that, like magic. Who's your favorite drag queen in Texas? In Texas? Oh, well, I guess I have to say. I mean, he literally knew a drag queen off the top of his head in Texas. I mean, I would be hard pressed to come up with one. Maybe RuPaul, right? RuPaul, everybody knows RuPaul. But like, am I going to be able to name in a particular state a certain drag? Wow, wow, wow. So Tolerico, ahead in Texas? I mean, it's just bonkers to me or the idea that El Said might get the first base in Michigan. This is alarming stuff, but here's the good news. This whole affordability play, it's not going to play in that. Let's watch it, okay? Let's watch it together in like three weeks time. They're going to be out of options. I think, I think. You know, meanwhile, we've got Democrats melting down right now because as of this Friday, guess what? You want to come to the United States of America? Well, you can't if you can't support yourself. Did you hear me? Okay, DHS has a new role. Actually, it's an old rule. It's actually a law that's on the books. They're just going back and enforcing a law that already exists. You want to come to America? You have to prove that you have a way to support yourself. Imagine that. I mean, it has the Democrats doing backflips. They're so, so upset. Here is Mr. Mamdami himself, the guy that smiles during the middle of a funeral service over 9/11. Yeah, he's really worked out because, you know, what are all those Ugandan's going to do? I don't know. It's a drastic and unlawful changes to our country's public charge rule. A rule that makes it possible for someone to be denied immigration status based on the likelihood of their need for public benefits. I'm sorry. Like, are you following that? Because I thought they told us over and over and over again that people who were here illegally couldn't actually qualify for benefits. There's that. Right? And now, well, there is a law on the books that has existed for some time that actually says, no, you know, if you're coming to this country, you have to show that you're going to be able to take care of yourself in the old days. You know, you'd have the churches or the families or somebody sponsoring somebody and they would come in that way until it became one big, giant, free for all. And so now they're losing it. I mean, not to mention the Democrats also announced this week that they were fighting back on snap on snap because it seems this administration according to the Department of Agriculture has managed to save American taxpayers $6 billion in snap fraud. Oh, but no, they want to campaign for the fraud. More on that in a second, but let's go back to the full maim, dummy clips that we can appreciate his hysteria in all its hystericalness. Drastic and unlawful changes to our country's public charge rule, a rule that makes it possible for someone to be denied immigration status based on the likelihood of their need for public benefits. Set to go into effect this coming Friday, September 18th, the new public charge rule expands the list of public benefits that might count against green card or visa applicants. If you this is an undisguised effort to strip New Yorkers of the services they rely on, the public benefits they are entitled to. It is estimated that up to four million people from across the country could unenroll from their health care alone, including 1.8 million children. As a result of these changes, the rate of premature mortality in immigrant communities in New York City could increase by up to 10.6% within just the next five years. The data is clear. Denying people's services does not erase their need. It compounds it. Okay, so he's saying that the Trump administration is going to be responsible for all of these early deaths because the Trump administration is not allowing people to become citizens if they are dependent on the state. I'm sorry. You know me, I'm a good old-fashioned red blooded American capitalist. Capitalist in all capital letters, okay? It's like a dirty word nowadays, but I'm very proud and I wear it on my sleeve. And here's the deal. As a capitalist, I expect that you're going to take care of you and I'm going to take care of me. And you know, maybe we take care of some friends together, but you know, we're not taking care of the whole god darn it world. No, like I didn't sign up for that. You didn't sign up for that. I know ma'am dummy thinks he can take your money and my money and everybody else's money and actually make sure that we all, whether we want to or not, are responsible for the rest of the world. But that's not the way it works, right? That's why we have sovereignty. That's why we have borders. That's why we have country. I know it sucks if you are born in Uganda. Okay, I get it. You know, I love this country. I love this country dearly. And I thank the Lord every day that I was born in the United States of America. But we need to keep with the United States of American part of being a United States of America citizen is this belief, right? And it comes all the way back from the founding back in 1776 that you can do it, that you alone are responsible for your own destiny. American dream, right? We've talked about this before. It doesn't exist in any other culture. You don't have a Uganda dream. You don't have an Indian dream. You don't have a French dream. You don't have a UK dream. You get the American dream. The American dream because we believe that through hard work and ingenuity and determination and sure I get it, maybe a little bit of luck. We're going to be able to do something in this country and the reason you're able to do something is because we don't have the likes of the Memdames and the El Sayyids and the AOCs and they were cheated to leaves in the Ilhan Omar's out there trying to take from all of us and redistribute to their friends and don't kid yourself for two seconds so they're not redistributing to your friends. That's exactly what it's all about. That's why we're discovering so much fraud.
What happened and what do you think? Minneapolis with the $250 million feeding our future debacle, I mean, that is not going to fly. Rand Paul from Kentucky, the center, he said he wants to make sure we eliminate a thousand percent eliminate welfare for all refugees. In other words, you're not coming here, getting a handout, there's no free load in the United States of America. You take care of yourself, you take care of your own and that's the way it's been done for hundreds of years, and it's the way it's going to continue. Tinity, it's not about coming here to join the welfare state. We actually have laws on the book that says if you come here legally, you're not supposed to be eligible for a host of welfare programs for five years. Some of the way that people have gotten around this is by coming as refugee status and then allowed refugees then to immediately get on welfare. So you know, we have several hundred thousand Somalis in Minnesota, many of them came as refugees and about 85 percent of them that started on welfare are still on welfare. So no, I've put forward legislation on a couple of occasions now. I had about 20 Republicans support me in the Senate, about 30 Republicans and all the Democrats voted against me, but I would eliminate all welfare for refugees. You can still come to this country, have someone sponsor you, have a church sponsor you and they take care of you, have a family member sponsor and they take care of you. That's the way it historically was, that's the way it should be, but we should not have any welfare for immigrants that should not be a beacon to the world to come here and get free stuff. No, there's no free stuff, there's no free loaders, right? You want to come here, you're going to come here the right way, it's amazing, 22 states are now suing. So it's not just Mamdame in New York City, you get 22 states that are suing over this new requirement that's going into effect this Friday, guess what, you want to come here? You want status, you're not going to be able to get welfare, all right? We do not or at least we want to, when we look at your application, we want to ensure that you're not going to be dependent on the state, you know how much is going to save us? $13 billion a year, I'll take it, right? $13 billion a year, you add that plus the snapsavings we're getting, six billion, I mean, hey, I'll tell you, we're making a dent in this, we've got to make a dent in it sometime, somehow, some way. This law actually goes back to 1882, everyone, it's the Immigration Act of 1882, and this is what DHS is using to block migrants from using welfare. So you get 22 states trying to sue, trying to, you know, basically turn this all around, I mean, you got to think about what they're doing in terms of our culture, right? Our culture is all about helping oneself, right? What helps those who help themselves? And so you've got to get out there and work, and you've got to get out there and do something for a living, and you get out there and you take care of your family, and maybe your friends, and maybe your community. But like, Jared, you know, it only goes so far, once we put in the hands of Man Damien Company for goodness' sake, you won't see it again. You know that, I know that, he ought to know that. The DHS response to this lawsuit from these 22 states here they are putting this one at Polymarket actually reported 22 states to, and the Trump administration to block a new public charge rule that could block immigrants who use public benefits from obtaining green cards. Because, yeah, gee, I think we kind of want you to be self-sufficient. I mean, if I moved to Mexico, do they want me mooching off the state? I don't think they offer that quite down there, do they? They definitely don't want me voting, right? Anyway, the Homeland Security writing, let's get this straight. Sanctuary states are terrified. They will lose federal funds because hundreds of thousands of illegals and non-citizens might remove themselves from America's welfare programs. Ah, that's what it is, huh? They're worried that they're going to lose the federal funds because of all the illegals and the non-citizens getting America's welfare programs. I thought they told us that they weren't giving it to illegals. Remember how many times they told us that over and over and over again? It was fake news to talk about all the money that the states were getting and how Donald Trump was saying, I'm cutting off, I'm cutting off, no more and no more. They said, well, this is stupid. This is a non-issue because none of the money goes to illegals, what you better believe it does. This is the ideological contortion required by left-wing leaders to justify their defrauding of the American taxpayer at the hands of illegal criminals. Wow. I mean, how's that for an argument? We're on the side of the illegals that want to come here and drain you of all of your hard-working wages. That doesn't seem to me to really be what we might call the political argument that would play, so to speak, as they say in Peoria. Here's another story. USDA says crackdown on snap fraud prevented $5.8 billion in taxpayer losses. Woo-hoo, right? Brooke Rollins coming out announcing that one yesterday. In other words, we're clamping down on this stuff and what do they do? They turn it into a woe is me, woe is me. And they're trying to plan everybody's heartstrings and say, how dare you take this? What about the fact that they might be taking it from us? Has anybody thought about that for two seconds? You come here illegally and then you're mooching off a Uncle Sam for years? I don't think so. But then El Saeed twists it round and round and round until he goes on to pod save American and says, this. I learned pretty early that if you let a bully take your lunch, you're not going to eat lunch. I like to eat. So at some point, I was like, okay, you know, I know what to do with bullies. My whole life, like I am the kind of person that if you're somebody who is struggling and don't have what you need, I will go to the ends of the earth to try to provide those things. And if you're a bully who's taking those things away, I will pull the fuck out of you. We had to clean up because there was an F-bomb in there, yeah. It's the guy that wants to be the next senator from Michigan. He doesn't even like Michigan. I mean, there's this like famous island, you know, where they still have like the horse-drawn carriages. I don't think they allow cars. It's beautiful. McKintock. I hope I'm saying that right. It's beautiful. We actually looked to go there on vacation. It was just really really difficult to get to and it meant I was going to have to fly through Detroit. I was like, okay, I'm sorry, the layover in Detroit. You had me at the beautiful island until, anyway, sorry, if anyone's from Detroit, it really was too hard to get to. I'm like, it's easier to go to Europe for goodness sakes. But it's a beautiful, beautiful, beautiful island and he trashed it and he was caught on an open mic trashing it. I mean, he hates his own darn state and the idea that this guy is somehow going to win? Are you kidding me? No. He's not going to win. He's not going to win because I'm going to go back to the very issue that we started talking about and that is oil. This is their hope, right? They hope that Iran actually can come through at the 11th hour or something and that this is going to mean destruction of all Republicans at the ballot box and I don't think it's going to happen because look, you know, I watch energy markets every day. I watch all markets every day and I have a whole background. You guys know that in finance and I have my 76research.com, my own financial firm and we published newsletters. We've got one coming out today on the Fed that I was working on earlier with Rob. I mean, the reality is I watch this stuff every day and I'm watching oil come down and it came down a lot today. It came down a lot because 18 million barrels are going right back out through the straight of Hormuz just like they were before this whole conflict started six months ago. And oils coming down today because everybody's looking around and they're saying, oh, wow, the pipeline in Saudi Arabia, that's going to be coming back online soon too. Look at this after all the concerns about Saudi Arabia and its pipelines and the attacks that were happening. Look at this out today, Bloomberg news reporting that Saudis seek to resume half of the key oil pipeline within days, within days, guys, all right? So that one's going to be back up and running as well. Let's go to the Fox report, new developments there on Saudi Arabia and take Ron. So the Saudis are conducting strikes. They have requested U.S. support. Yes, on Iran. One of the country's largest proxies, the Houthis and Yemen are ramping up their attacks on Yemeni government forces and neighboring Saudi Arabia. The Saudis intercepted a Houthi drone overnight near the holy city of Mecca as these attacks expand in range. Now, the key thing to remember here is that the escalation is linked to the situation with Iran and the Houthis are receiving direct orders and support from the regime in Tehran. support. President Trump has not granted that yet, but let me give you a different perspective on this. Why are the Houthis doing it? Because Iran is paying them cash and offering them material and operational support. But this Iranian escalation is evidence of the pain that they are going through economically. Axios reports that sent Com Commander Admiral Brad Cooper convened a meeting of top military commanders from regional countries, including Israel this week, to strengthen security cooperation needed to address the ongoing threats from Iran and its proxies. Well, we've got some strength that's coming. I suspect that the U.S. will actually help Saudi Arabia. That's partly why they're doing that nuclear deal. And then the other strength that's coming is what we were talking about earlier. Take a look at this one, guys. A $2.8 billion arms sale to Israel. The largest ever with 40,000 one-ton bombs. So I have just a little bit of a feeling that things will be under control sooner rather than later, they're in Iran. I do. I do. And in Saudi Arabia, same deal. Again, they're reporting that they're going to get this thing back up and running within a couple of days. Here is some video. Two shots. If you take a look at these pipelines, right?
they're trying to destroy. There's the before and there's the after again, another before and after. But here's the good news. The good news is it's all coming back online. It's all coming back. And so, you know, they can they can make a lot of noise, but they have no army. They have no Navy. They have a couple little fishing boats and they've got some drones. And I realize, you know, warfare is different and it's changed, et cetera. But we still have the upper hand so we got to use it. It's very exciting announcements from Venezuela today. You will see a very well known oil company, American company that will talk about their investment in the Venezuela and boom. Okay. So this is the other card up the Trump administration's sleeve. They got more oil coming out. I told you, it's not just Saudi pipelines. It's not just what we have in the US. It's also what's down in Venezuela. So that's Chris Wright, the energy secretary, giving you a little preview, saying, hey, we got a big deal. It's about to be announced. Well, sure enough, that deal got announced today. Harold Ham's company. We're talking about continental resources. He just signed a big, big deal, a big deal to explore those Venezuela oil fields and he's signing it with Peta Vesa, which means probably I'm guessing someone in the Trump administration said, hey, Harold, you know, talk to Darcy. Darcy Rodriguez. Darcy, forgive me, Darcy Rodriguez. And Darcy and Harold, they did a deal. I actually have a call out to Harold this afternoon, one to congratulate him on the deal and two to see if he'd come here on the show and explain it to us because you know, I've said forever that that is an enormous opportunity. You just kind of need the right team in there. And by the right team, not just the Americans, right? But you need the right people in Venezuela that will allow the Americans to do what they need to do to refine this stuff, to get it out of the ground and to refine it properly so that it can hit all of the markets. And so Donald Trump made this a big priority early on. And what do you know, Harold Ham is going in there and he's signing this big deal for 30 billion barrels, okay? It's a 30 billion barrel deal with Peta Vesa, the state-run oil company. So I'm just saying, you look around, okay? You look around and look at all the oil that we got here. You know, we got tons of it. It's gushing out all over and then we got it in Venezuela. I'm hoping we get a little bit up in Alberta. If you're watching from Canada, you know what I'm talking about, right? We'll see. We'll see. There's an independence push in Alberta, Canada. And they get all the energy and for whatever reason, carny and company, carny doesn't seem to understand how valuable they are to the overall economy. And even what you're seeing now with the tariff war with with Canada for goodness sakes. Alberta, you know, they're going to get stuck having to put all these tariffs on their oil. And you get tariffs on our stuff coming in. And what's it going to mean? They're not going to be able to sell as much oil so they don't really like that. So again, another reason to be looking for some independence. And I think we'd be very supportive of that independence. And we'd probably do a lot to help them because they have what we want, right? And that is natural resources. So we're in the market, guys. We're in the market for oil. We're in the market for natural minerals. It's why we're so interested in the Arctic right about now. That's why we're so interested in Greenland. It's why we're so interested in Venezuela. You got Marco Rubio just last week doing the whole grand tour of Latin America, making sure that we actually do fix the root causes of migration because we need capitalist structures down there throughout the entire Latin America so that we don't have all the fraud and we don't have all the socialism, which leads to, what do you think? Oh, in the crime, dare I forget all the crime. I mean, the crime, the lefties, they love the crime, right? They don't want any police. No, no, no. I mean, the defund the police movement. You know, if I have to hear about that again for goodness sakes and you know who we heard from it a lot from AOC. AOC, we're hearing a lot from her lately. Little too much from her lately. You see, there was this big ordeal with Ed Sharon great singer. I love his music anyway. He was performing recently and he was, you know, he had this this entertainer named Macklemore, who's a rapper from Seattle. If you're watching this show rather than listening, we encourage you to watch. You can watch on YouTube live and then on Spotify. You can see he's he's also dressed in green just like me. He actually is dressed in a more feminine costume than me today because he's got lovely fur and is that patent leather? Anyway, quite a jacket, quite a jacket, Macklemore. Macklemore decided to get out there on stage and say this and how many times have I told you, you know, I really don't want to hear from the performers, please. I mean, at the risk of sounding too crude, just shut up and sing for goodness sakes or in this case for this guy, rap. I don't really like rap. Surprise, surprise. Anyway, here we go. Macklemore. I say free platinum, I say free Lebanon, free Cuba to the Congo, to Sudan, to Iran, and all the people living in America that have to live in fear because of this terrorist organization. I wait for it. Yeah, ice. Because of this terrorist organization. I mean, my gosh. So the next thing you know, Robert Kraft says, yeah, you're not going to perform at my stadium in Boston. Now with that opening act, thank you very much. And so Ed Sheeran was put in the hot seat and he was asked, you know, what do you think? And he's like, well, you know, it doesn't really matter. I have my own personal views on it, but I'm going to go forward with my tour and I'm going to keep doing this because you know, there's a lot of people in livelihoods involved, etc. I don't want to let all these fans down. I don't want to let all these other people that are on the tour. And I'm going to keep my political views to myself because Ed Sheeran is no dummy. Unlike, you know, some performers out there who think that this is their opportunity. I mean, they're trying to like moonlight for Obama's long gone state department or something like influence culture somehow. Please, you got AOC, like I said, we're hearing a little too much from her. Now, weighing in on this, TMZ caught up with her today, watch. Hey, if Ed Sheeran comes on the radio while you're driving along, are you changing the channels? I am. You are? Yeah. Why is that? I think that what we've seen, especially, it's not, it's not just what has happened with the act and not just in removing Macklemore from the lineup, but when you see what Robert crafted to line up all of the stadiums, to censor speech in that one specific way, it's become clear that this is not just about one music artist or two music artists, but this is about how just a handful of stadium owners and the elite can prevent an entire massive issue, in this case, the genocide and Gaza, but it doesn't stop there. It could be speaking out about AI. It could be speaking out about any issue that you can now just get a handful of stadium owners to ensure that an entire person's career can be jeopardized if they speak out about any issue. The supporting acts have dropped out, but Ed Sheeran, I think, will still continue with the tour. What do you think his responsibility is in all of this? You know, I don't know, but you know, I think that because you never see these contracts and I have no idea what the financial entanglements of all that is, but I do think that, you know, I think that the right thing to do is to speak out about it, and I think the right thing to do is at the very least, to speak out about this abuse of power. Because if they're saying that to him, right, then they can say it to anybody, and at what point does it stop? I have a huge amount of. Can they? Can they? Can they? I found that really interesting. She's suddenly a crusader for free speech, AOC, because I seem to remember numerous times over the last several years when she was anything but a crusader for free speech. So I see when it comes to free Palestine, we're all about free speech, and how dare Ed Sheeran not speak out on this, because, you know, it's big, bad, robber craft who's the man trying to keep them down. I see, I see. You know, I'm just going to point out that AOC has at various times, again, throughout her rather short career, had a lot to say about clamping down on speech. I mean, I remember this particular one. She was championing the firing of Tucker Carlson when he left Fox. Now, I know we don't necessarily have a lot of Tucker fans here. Thank you for watching me. But I still just want to point out everybody has a right to get out there and say what they want. And in this particular case, she thought de-platforming was exactly the way to go and was encouraging Fox to do so. And then was letting out the hip hip hooray. When it happened, remember? Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News. Couldn't have happened to a better guy. What I will say, though, is while I'm very glad that the person that was arguably responsible for the some of the largest driving
some of the most amounts of death threats and violent threats not just to my office but to plenty of people across the country. I also kind of feel like I'm like waiting for the cutscene at the end of a Marvel movie after all the credits have rolled and then you see like the villains like hand re-emerge out to grip over like the end of a building or something but deep platforming works and it is important and dumb. There you go. Yeah, there you go. I mean I guess the the weird hand kind of did come out eventually right but um she was all for it. Look I mean you can't have it both ways lady it's one of the other. There was another time that she talked about the media and she wanted the media to be censored. She was all about that censorship. I mean come on and now you're gonna sit out there with this I mean this is what you call faceplant right? Like it's kind of funny because like hey there's this little thing called tape. Y'all know AOC you're always on tape you're always always giving us these little Instagram numbers which we can then go back and play which is gonna be a big problem I think when you're running for president anyway this is AOC. She just lies through her teeth for any kind of politically expedient moment but what's fascinating is that she's somehow gotten clarity all of a sudden. On Palestine I don't know how that happened was that Xiaomi little conversation with Mam Dami what did it on 9/11? Because I do recall she really didn't have much opinion or any opinion or really anything to say about this just two years ago while on a PBS front line episode. Do you remember this? What is your position on Israel? Well I believe absolutely and Israel's right to exist. I also think that what people are starting to see at least in the occupation of Palestine is you use the term the occupation of Palestine. What did you mean by that? Oh I think what I meant is like the the settlements that are increasing in some of these areas and places where Palestinians are experiencing difficulty and access to their housing and homes. Do you think you can expand on that? Yeah I mean I think I'd also just I am not the expert geo-politics on this issue you know. You think? No. Well she's become an expert you see. She's like one of the backup singers and the Mam Dami man right now you know he's teaching her all the ways and suddenly a few little laughs at the 9/11 ceremony and the next thing you know AOC is out saying this McElrow whatever the heck his name is the rapper from Seattle ought to be able to go out there and just rant and rave about you know free Palestine free Palestine free Palestine. Well you know listen he can rant and rave all he wants I would just not go to his concert right because that's free market capitalism at work baby and you know craft he owns the stadium so free market capitalism dictates that he doesn't want that guy in his stadium he's not gonna book him is that cancel culture or capitalism. I'll let you answer that question but I think what we have just exposed without a doubt is that AOC says one thing one day and another thing another day. Tomorrow on the show we're gonna do a deep dive into her I think it's worth doing because this woman is actually who they're looking at to be the Democratic nominee for president. I mean so much that Gavin Newsom is talking about stepping down now he's using communism excuse but I think we all know that AOC is the excuse because all the polling shows that she's way ahead of him. Now selfishly I'd kind of love to see her be the nominee because it would be like Kamala times a thousand like I just think she's gonna just face plant just like she did with that little number but you know let's let we won't count our chickens before they hatch. Tomorrow we're gonna do a bit more of a deep dive on this. The Fed up to rates today if you haven't subscribed to my newsletter please go over to 76research.com and do that because we've got a lot of insight on all of this stuff but the Federal Reserve coming out today and saying aha we're up and things by a quarter of a point here is Kevin Wars the newly named director of the Federal Reserve take it over for Jerome Powell this was a unanimous decision guys. The FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to three and three quarters to four percent in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. As noted in the policy statement released just a short while ago economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. Good. Well uncertainty remains elevated owing in part to geopolitical developments. Right. domestic spending has been resilient productivity growth strong and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little but inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timely return to the committee's 2% goal. Okay he didn't tell me anything I wasn't obviously very aware of. I would say it's interesting that he sounded so positive on the economy. I think there's a lot of reasons to be cheered by this economy right now in fact you know I keep talking about core versus you know overall inflation numbers and the core number shows that the inflation we've seen in energy costs actually hasn't caught up to the rest of the economy. And the other good bit of news is what I began this show with which is the reality that we're now getting oil through the straight of her moves and of course the Venezuela stuff and the Saudi stuff and I mean there's a lot of reasons to think that oil is gonna come way way way down in the relative near future. The other thing I liked was what he was saying about the economy and I said this to you guys as well you know we're at very low unemployment overall inflation. The thing that he doesn't know about all right the thing that he's struggling with and that the other Fed governors are struggling with is whether or not the reduction we're seeing in energy markets you know here today right like you oil trading down like three and a half percent is that going to be continued or we're going to be looking at a hundred dollar barrel oil for the foreseeable future again you know my read on it you know my take on it I think that this is going to get resolved relatively quickly and so I'm not as concerned perhaps as you know they have to be but you know it's easy to it's easy to be the armchair quarterback shall we say I mean it's a lot harder if you're there at the Federal Reserve and he doesn't want inflation to get carried away. The president obviously feels differently he wrote today interest rates in the US should be at 1% or less because we are by far the best credit in the world in other words you want to be in the Chinese equivalent of a treasury bond I don't think so. Do you want to be in a German bunch? No I don't think so. Do you want to invest in France? I don't think so. So where are you going to invest other than the US of A for goodness sake so he's like I'm sorry like we got a good product for goodness sakes we shouldn't be giving him much more than 1% our country is booming he said with new investment he's right if we stop trading with every country that we have a deficit with which is most of them we will make at least one and a half trillion dollars a year the word deficit is nothing more than a fancy word for loss we are carrying almost every country in the world and that cannot go on any longer lower the interest rates to the America for the United States of America lower them fast so this came out of 438 pm we had Kevin and company moving forward with this interest rate announcement at 2 pm here's one thing one takeaway that I have for you actually is that the president could have been more mad he kind of spared Kevin Wars and that one right he could have been more mad he could have been more angry he could have said yeah Kevin Kevin Kevin why did I pick him and he didn't so maybe he knew this was coming I will tell you that there is a silver lining okay so the president can rest assured you guys can rest assured there is a silver lining and all this for starters Kevin Wars can get out of it if he needs to right you can always lower rates at the next meeting so this is what you call keeping your powder dry just in case but here's the benefit because oil you see is priced in dollars and when we raise rates what happens the value of the dollar vis-a-vis all the other currencies in the world it goes up so if you've got a buy your oil in dollars hey guess what just happened it means each dollar is worth more and therefore you need fewer dollars right fewer dollars because each one I mean you're gonna need more you know for the where an imbi you know for the one you're gonna have to come up with a few more but for us the dollar is gonna get stronger and so given the oil's priced in dollars it could have an effect just a little effect I'm not saying it's gonna be a big effect but that's a little bit of a silver lining that the president can take to sleep with him tonight but you know we we also understand that we're going into a very different kind of economy one that is filled with in my view a lot of productivity gains that are gonna come from AI and so because of that you want to make sure that you don't restrict as you begin to grow and as the economy gets stronger and stronger it is a balancing act believe me a huge one and they a lot of work ahead of them. We have a note coming out on this tonight or tomorrow morning.
It depends on how much I can get done tonight, right? Maybe it'll be tomorrow morning, on the Fed. American resilience, inflation protection, income builder, those are my three portfolios at 76 research. But we've got some thoughts we wanna share with you on all of this. Thank you for being here. Thank you for doing all you do to make this show a success. I love seeing so many regulars. We have our crowd, don't we? Peace in my mind and the rest of you. It's good to see some new guys here, some new folks. Thank you for joining us. And again, remember to subscribe and just like it, right? Leave a comment every little bit helps that little algorithm. I've learned a lot about algorithms over here on the other side, but I'll tell you, I wouldn't trade it for the world. Thank you so much for being here. I will see you back here live on the show tomorrow.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Oil prices are declining due to increased supply from the Strait of Hormuz, now flowing at 18 million barrels per day—pre-war levels—along with new oil flows from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
The Democratic Party's strategy relying on inflation and affordability is unraveling, as falling energy costs undercut their messaging and threaten their midterms prospects.
Escalating Iranian actions, including attacks on U.S. vessels and drones, are driven by economic desperation and a desire to pressure Trump into losing, but U.S. military and energy strength are countering these efforts.
Summary:
Oil prices are dropping sharply as global supply increases, driven by record flows through the Strait of Hormuz and new oil production from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. This shift undermines the Democrats' narrative of economic hardship, which has been central to their midterm strategy. S.
resilience and diminish perceived threats from Iran and its proxies. Despite Democratic claims about affordability and public benefits, economic realities—including falling oil prices and a surge in energy output—challenge their messaging. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is enforcing stricter immigration rules, such as the public charge rule, which could displace welfare access for immigrants, sparking legal and political backlash.
Critics argue these policies reflect a broader nationalist, capitalist stance emphasizing self-reliance and market-driven solutions. The Fed has raised interest rates to combat inflation, strengthening the dollar and slightly aiding oil price stability, though energy markets remain volatile. The political narrative is shifting: Democrats are seen as out of touch with real economic conditions, while the administration's energy and foreign policy actions signal confidence in a stronger, more self-sufficient economy.
S. energy dominance proving resilient—creating a significant headwind for the Democratic campaign.
FAQs
Oil prices are dropping due to increased oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and new pipeline developments in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. This undermines the Democrats' argument about economic affordability, which is central to their midterm strategy.
The U.S. is increasing oil supply through expanded production in Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, along with restored pipeline operations. This surplus is driving down oil prices, which benefits consumers and weakens the Democrats' economic messaging.
The rule requires immigrants to prove they can support themselves financially before obtaining green cards. It's controversial, with 22 states suing, and critics argue it harms immigrant communities by restricting access to public benefits and increasing health risks.
The sale, including 40,000 one-ton bombs, signals a strong U.S. military commitment to allies. It demonstrates a strategic push during the midterms and signals a shift in foreign policy that could influence political dynamics.
Iranian escalation, including drone attacks and threats, has led to increased oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This has stabilized supply and lowered prices, showing that U.S. energy security is resilient despite regional tensions.
Higher interest rates strengthen the U.S. dollar, making oil more expensive for foreign buyers. While this can slightly support oil prices, the overall effect is offset by supply increases, leading to lower prices and a stronger U.S. economy.
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