Oh No, Is It Time to Worry About Zack Wheeler?

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports Got a fantasy question email fantasy baseball at CBSi.com Get ready to win your league Now here's Frank Scott and Chris hello and welcome to fantasy baseball today. It is Tuesday July 28th. I am Chris towers here with Scott white still no Frank sample He's gone the rest of the week and we are here to recap Monday's MLB action and We got to start right at the top with What was initially an extremely concerning Zach Wheeler performance? And then after the game when everybody talked about it nobody seemed to concerned at all I don't know what to make of that Scott. I'll defer to you on this one but Zach Wheeler only made it through three innings against the Marlins the Marlins snap their 12 game losing streak against Zach Wheeler of all people His velocity was down 1.7 miles per hour on his foreseamer for the start. He averaged 92.6 in the third and final inning. He had a sinker come out at 91 There was a moment in the dugout where Don Mattingley was huddled with the trainer and multiple coaches and then they took Zach Wheeler out and it was just oh God The no Zach Wheeler who famously had the rest got let's enter in last season and surgery We were very concerned about him coming in you see this and you just You can't help but panic and then after the game. He's just like now It's just one of those days the ball wasn't coming out Don Mattingley said earlier that he had been dealing with nausea throughout the day is Zach Wheeler actually opted not to use that as an excuse for why his velocity was down but Either way, it's a pretty good excuse. I mean, yeah, I would use that excuse for sure But you know the thing well so part of the problem with anything like this is like No professional athlete very few professional athletes will ever actually come out and say oh, buddy I'm real worried about what happened That was very concerning and you should all be concerned because I am that never happens I feel like Zach Granky used to do that that granky, but he's kind of a An exception to a lot of rules from professional athletes And Zach Wheeler is very much a different type That's that granky. I think it's fair to say despite the same name. So Yeah, just one of those games just one of those days it wasn't coming out no excuse just a bad day It's just one of those days you have a bad day every once in a while. I'm sure right Wheeler was not just at one point. This is from the MOB dot com article Neeler Wheeler was not just at some point on Monday though. He declined again It's been in the specifics didn't really have to get in specifics That didn't really affect me out here. He said ball just wasn't coming out like I wanted it to body wasn't moving like I wanted it to I was just trying to get through it some games I can and today I just couldn't Fill his inner manager Don Manley said there are no concerns that Wheeler might be hurt. No, no He said he said he felt physically fine. He said the ball wasn't coming out I mean we have to take them at their word right? well Yeah, I mean you could just worry if you want you could you know Stoo over it and and As is so common in on the internet today you could start coming up with your own conspiracy theories to explain what was actually wrong with Zach Wheeler and You know they may turn out to be right, but I think We have enough information here to kind of connect the dots and Seems like he was kind of sick and Yeah, feeling is best and so that's probably why the ball wasn't coming out well Maybe some other things were coming out well, but we don't need to go into specifics as he said the ball was not so Yeah, I just Let's see how the next star goes obviously if He lands on the aisle between now and then that'll that'll tell us something but I'm not expecting that Yeah, like that the worst thing you could do well, I guess not the worst thing you could do but I cannot think it justifiable to like trade Zach Wheeler right now You're not gonna pull one over on someone Anyone else can see what happened in this start so even if you do think there's something to be concerned about Anybody who would be trading for him would also share those concerns presumably so yeah I don't I don't think there's anything actionable here. It was very concerning seem like we're gonna have a big story to talk about and Then once the post game quotes came out. It was like no doesn't really seem like there's anything so hopefully that's the case I Think we have to take them at their word that Zach Wheeler's fine and Hope he's good next time out and hope that the velocity's back and and hope that there's nothing going on here But I don't think we can do anything else right I Agree it's probably fine. It's it you do see one offs like this and when there's Illness associated with it then yeah, I think it's totally Explicable all right, let's move on to the oh my goodness gracious players of Monday night Scott let's hear it. You're oh my goodness gracious player Francisco Lendor is my choice for today. He yeah went off Finally finally a Monday three for five two home runs a triple 11 at total bases. That's a lot and six RBI it was kind of a Runaway game for the Metz by which I mean the braves Cycle through the they seem to have this one bullpen spot dedicated to a guy they're gonna DFA right after the game and it was That guy Connor Thomas. They also have a rotation spot for a guy They're gonna presumably DFA after the game because they've done it about nine times this season I feel like well, but especially the in that kind of mop up rolls so Connor Thomas took the brunt of it 11 Runs in two and two thirds innings after a decent start from our team Perez. That's like an all-time You're just gonna wear this one. Yeah kind of like 11 runs on 10 hits and five walks in two and two thirds innings So I'm looking to see how much of Lendor's damage came off him a three run homer came off Thomas And he hit one home run off martine Perez He also had the triple off martine Perez had four bad balls in this game that were hit at least 99 miles per hour And I say finally for Francisco Lendor because I feel like other than you know He missed a lot of time with injury. There's absolutely nothing wrong with them all the underlying data looks The same as it did last year if not better. I think he's still Francisco Lendor. I was updating my rankings earlier today I was tempted to move them out of the fourth spot at shortstop because You know, yeah, I'm done with anything But I was like no, I'm gonna stand my ground. I think Francisco Lendor is gonna be the fourth best shortstop rest of season Maybe higher than that because I have Bobby with second and he's on the aisle But you know leaving him second for now, but the point is Lendor still a stud I think today is the first of many reminders and Don't do anything shortsighted with them if it was May 15th and Francisco Lendor that that sounds like it'd be about 50 games, right? Maybe a little later maybe late May and Francisco Lendor was sitting on eight homers and a 743 OPS I feel like that's pretty normal for Francisco Lendor right like that's let's see last year I actually last year he didn't have the slow start well He did for the first couple of weeks and they got red hot in late April But I feel like Francisco Lendor not being very good through the first 50 games is something we've gotten used to And obviously there are always people who forget that and are like in the comments saying oh Can I drop Francisco Lendor no can ever drop Francisco Lendor unless he's out for the season That's the only way I would drop Francisco Lendor, but I don't even think I'd trade Lendor Because I think it would be I Think the only you could only short sell them you can only sell them short at this point But my point is just that we we we've done the slow start for Francisco Lendor before Yeah, and the fact that it's almost August and he still hasn't gotten hot I think it's mostly just a product of he missed a bunch of time And that'll disrupt your season in the best of circumstances, but yeah The underlying number is 91.4 mile per hour average X of loss. He's actually a career high 8.6% barrel rate right right where he was last season Strike out rates not up walk rate actually is up. He's not running as much He missed a bunch of time with a calf injury. So that's the one thing that maybe won't come around for Francisco Lendor His sprint speed is down to the lowest of his career But even looking at 2027 I would expect the steals to come back You know, he's only got two and 50 games. Maybe he's not back to a 30 30 guy that next year But but I would expect more than a six-deal pace in 2027 certainly. - I mean, it could change this year still. - Yeah. - Obviously, the sprint speed has been afflicted by what was the injury that cost him the most time? - It was a calf strain. - Yeah, so obviously it's afflicted by that. The health presuming is healthy now. - Yeah, he was presuming it's healthy now. - A calf strain, yeah. - So I think we're gonna see exactly what we expected from Frances Goulendor coming in. Obviously, pro-rated for the nine weeks or so that are remaining. - All right, my Omega-Dispiration's player tonight and just this was not a great night for big performances or at least the big performances that were there. We'll talk a little bit about Alex Braggman and Nico Horner and a couple other guys who had big games who really needed it. But I don't have a lot to say about those guys whereas everybody to Hernandez, I know I talked about him yesterday, but I'm shocked he's still only 26% rostered. He has been OPS around 900 since the start of June. The underlying numbers are excellent. I think it's a 370 X-Wobba since the start of June. He homeard again on Monday, his seventh of the month of July, out of the two RBI single off Yon Durand later. Marlins came back off Durand in that game. Hernandez had six homers in June too. And now it's up to 25 homers and eight steals in 164 games right around 560 played appearances. I don't know, I still think Harry Potter Hernandez is just a pretty good player, not a superstar, but certainly a guy who should be rostered more than 26% in CBS fantasy leagues. So I'm gonna keep being that drum that Hernandez deserves a little more credit from the fantasy community that he's been getting. - I'm gonna do a player A, player B thing. - Okay. - Player A. - It's used to be Heath's thing way back in the day. - Well, he did a trademark it, but. - Loved A, a misleading player A versus player B. - This is very misleading, but I do think it's. - I can tell you something, yeah. - Player A, 240 XBA, 502 X-Lug. - Okay. - Player B, 259 XBA. - That's five, six X-Lug. - I believe that's also higher. - Yes, they're both higher. - I'm gonna guess B is Aeroberta Hernandez. - Yes. - I don't know if I can guess who player A is. - Gosh, who could that be? Let's take a look at like a similar type of player. - I assume it's a similar like much more high end player. - It's a player who I drafted in the first round of our second half redraft. It's Kyle Schwarber. - Oh, okay. - Yeah. - That's shocking. - Yep. - I personally think Kyle Schwarber's better than Aeroberta Hernandez. - Yes, yes. - But I love to see that as a person who believes Aeroberta Hernandez is underrated because this is one where the underlying numbers have been better than the actual numbers for a decent amount of time. And now the season long numbers are, that's like a set, he's up to like a 790 something OPS. Again, I don't think this is an impact, but I don't think he's a superstar, but. - No, but you could do the same exercise I just did with Matt Olson. It's very comparable by Rambustin, very comparable. I'm just trying to contextualize because you hear, maybe you hear a 259xBA and a 5SX slug and think, okay, that's pretty good. But like, no, that's really good. That's what it compares to. So like, I'm not saying Aeroberta Hernandez is any of those guys, but I am saying the data is strong. The data backs up what he's done for, I mean, the last 42 games, he's got an OPS near 950. So I think it's time to take a look into Hernandez for sure. - All right, let's move on and take a quick break before we do. Make sure you like and subscribe on YouTube, youtube.com/fanecitybaseball today. Thanks to everyone watching and following along. We will be back right after this break. (bell ringing) (air whooshing) (air whooshing) - Welcome back to fantasy baseball today. Let's go over some news and notes from Monday and unfortunately, we had multiple of the busiest players in baseball leave with injuries. Hopefully neither as serious as Mervlin Valdez left Monday's game. He was hit on the left hand during the fourth inning by a pitch. He had X-rays taken. They did not offer an update on his status after the game. So we'll have to wait until Tuesday. Fingers crossed would be a bummer for his hot streak to end like this. And then we all said Curtis Mead, making his Red Sox debut also leaving after getting hit on the hand. He was diagnosed with a risk contusion. A voidae worst case scenario. X-rays apparently came back negative for that one. So hopefully it's a short term issue, but man, that would have been a real bummer. If Curtis Mead got hurt in his very first game with the Red Sox, he had to be glad. You know, I think he was wearing a pad. It kind of glanced off the pad first. Took some of the force off of him. So we had a couple of big returns. Well, one big return. Ronald Cunion was back in the lineup, handing Leopth for the Braves on Monday. He went one for four with a couple of strikeouts. His first game was he really out since June 9th. And I feel like he was out that long, but it's big for yourself. Second hamstring as well. I've got him in a bunch of leagues. So I'm very much aware. I guess my only thing is we're not expecting Ronald Cunion to run much. Now that he's back, right? I would guess not. He wasn't. I wanna say he wasn't a ton before the injury, was he? I thought he had nine steel. He had run a, I was like nine for 15, I think. Yeah, he was running a decent amount. I've not been able to. He caught a decent amount too. I don't know. I mean, that's the sort of thing like. It's a fine theory, but I don't know if I'd go as far as to say yet. Yeah. That's that, you know? That's fair. Andy Rodriguez also came back from the IL on Monday. He went one for two after appearing as a pinch header later in the day. So that was good to see. He was looking very sharp before his injury. Spencer Stier went on the IL with a right wrist sprain and he could miss significant time. Could throw a wrench into the Reds trade deadline plans. He was part of that room mill. Shatline Lears will have season ending surgery to repair the torn meniscus in his right knee. Should be healthy well before spring training of next year shouldn't help affect him for 2027. But he has done for this season. One sort of does not appear to be done for this season. He 100% expects to play as he told the media on Monday, although he does not have a specific timetable. We did get a timetable on Cody Belinger. He has a grade two hamstring strain and will be out four to six weeks. So likely through the start of September, not necessarily guaranteed with that timetable. But if you're in a point's league, there's a chance your season's over before Cody Belinger's back. Now say you should drop him certain head like any kind. I were inside in nine weeks to go, like I said. So you know, an injury that sidelines the guy for six weeks. You're talking about two thirds of what remains. And that's the position Belinger's in, probably the position one so does in. And that's unfortunate. But yeah, yeah. Any kind of side setback for either of them could cost in the rest of the season basically. Yeah. And you have to weigh obviously how many weeks does your league count? Because not all of them go through the end of the calendar, the basic calendar. I have a league that the playoffs started today. How is it a playoff league where you're going to be totally eliminated potentially before you reach the end of the baseball calendar? And that might help guide you in what you decide to do with those two specifically Belinger and Soto. All right. Samo Bessio has already resumed the baseball activities. Though he has not been clear to throw as he returns from a shoulder injury. Owen Casey coming back from a calf injury will begin a rehab assignment at AAA on Tuesday in Jacksonville. Jung Hoolie missed a second straight game due to elbow soreness stemming from a hit by pitch over the weekend. I missed that one yesterday. I apologize. Blake's now could return to the Dodgers rotation after they're upcoming home stand, which ends on Sunday. So he could be down to his final rehab assignment on Wednesday, Connolly Early through a bullpen session on Monday, his first time throwing for his new team. and he will. will make his first rehab start on August 3rd and will likely need at least a couple of starts before he's fully built up. So probably mid August, I would say for commonly early in a best case scenario, the Cubs designated James and Tyrone for assignment. He had a 592 ERA for the season. Carrie Carpenter was added to the 10 day IL with planter for Shytis in his left foot. Jimmy Garcia will see a specialist to figure out if he has thoracic outlet syndrome. It's been a just totally lost season. As a barger did not end up having full time of John surgery. So he could end up missing just six months, putting him on track to be ready for spring training. A little pirates prospect news. Seth Hernandez was placed on the IL with an oblique injury. He was never going to come up down the stretch. Just probably situation where they need to manage his innings anyway. So that makes it a little easier. Kaelin Cole Pepper, twins prospect, returned to action over the weekend after missing a month with hand and glued injuries. I think we are going to see him at some point after the all star game or sorry, the trade deadline. And these are a pretty exciting prospect. So Kaelin Cole Pepper, name to keep an eye on. Mike Hogars, he will begin his rehab assignment on Tuesday at double A. Seems like he could be back next week and fall goes well. You say Kucci starting a rehab assignment Thursday. He's coming back from a shoulder injury. Richard Cabrera will make the first of what is expected to be three rehab starts Friday at triple A. So he will likely be looking at around August 10th or so. Jeffrey Springs had an MRI taken on his right hip, but it didn't show any damage. He is still scheduled to start Friday as the Tigers. Chris Bassett will begin a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday at triple A. He's working his way back from surgery to remove bone spurs in his back. And Kucci, my gunry was back in the lineup after missing Sunday's game with a shit injury. And he went three for three with a walk. Love to see that. And let's move on to some waiver wire targets and waiver wire pitchers. Part one, let's rank these three. Merrill Kelly. Starting to look like Merrill Kelly again. Five and two thirds innings, four hits, zero earned runs, one walks, six strikeouts. His velocity was down one mile per hour across the board and it didn't matter. He got nine whips on the change up. He's got a 198 ERA and 1.11 whip since the start of July 24 strikeouts to eight walks and 27 innings. He had been throwing harder before this start and has been missing more bats. I haven't really had a good feel for Merrill Kelly's season except that I think he had a back injury to start and just probably wasn't right. Was a little rusty for a while. And now I think he's mostly back to being Merrill Kelly. Robert Aurenia, still only 62 percent roster. I find that very surprising in a two-start week. He limited the a-shows to one or run over six innings on two hits, two walks and five strikeouts. His velocity was way up, almost two miles per hour overall. It was like three miles per hour early on in the game. He was feeling himself 10 whips on 91 pitches, five on the change up. He didn't really throw it early on in the start and still got fives with it, five whips with it. That's a good pitch. That was very good, which is a little surprising. Given the velocity jump, you have 58 percent zone rate did, uh, Robert Aurenia. He's only 62 percent roster and then we also has Zach Thornton 62 percent roster. Going up against the braves is a quality start. Not a great one. Three on runs, the six in a third innings. Five strikeouts to one walk. He had nine whips, four with the cutter, three with the four seamer. Only one start with more than five strikeouts for Zach Thornton despite a two-forty-three ERA. He's 62 percent roster. He gets Miami in his next start. Ranked Merrill Kelly, Robert Aurenia and Zach Thornton. Let's say all three are available in your league. How are you prioritizing those three pitchers? Going to go Aurenia number one. I think there are the clearest strengths here in that he gets ground balls at a 54 percent rate average ex of a loss. Decoming into the star was 86.9 miles per hour and it only went down with, you know, 85 mile per hour showing in this one. I think that's going to keep him relatively stable. I wish the strikes were a little more consistent, the strike throwing there. But he has been going six innings with more consistency. I feel like his stock is rising rather than falling and probably overdue to be picked up in more leagues. Two seventy ERA and he's only 62 percent rostered. It remains very surprising to me. I am not sure who I'd put seconds. I had felt like Merrill Kelly while the ERA had been good in recent starts. It's about the only thing that had been good. Sure. As previous two starts were three strikeouts each and the walks had remained pretty high. But every, you know, the ratios obviously over a small sample, he has a start like this where he gives up less than a base runner per inning and he has more than a strikeout per inning and suddenly the ratios look a bit better over that recent sample. And maybe Merrill Kelly is back. I don't feel like he's a priority either way. It's just a question of do you want to try the mystery box with Zach Thorne instead who forstrike quality starts, which means they're all at least six innings if nothing else. It's not the weakest contact that he's giving up though and it's largely in the air and it's not like he's getting a strikeout per inning. So I'm not sure there's enough here. It's not all awful but none of it's particularly good either. And so I might lean Merrill Kelly for that reason but I also don't have a lot of confidence in Merrill Kelly. So if you wanted to go for the mystery box, I want to blame you. I just, when we're talking a mystery box, I want to feel better about the possibility of there being some upside there. And that's what I'm struggling with with Zach Thorne where like look, 243 RA, there's no arguing against that. That's phenomenal. But I don't feel like he's actually been all that impressive. It's like been good control so far. That's new for him. He was walking almost four per nine in the miners before this. The one question would be he was striking out more batters in the miners. He was more like a 2425% strikeout rate guy. Do we think that upside is there? Can he at least be an above average strikeout rate guy? I hope so but I just, I don't find the stuff all that impressive was Zach Thorne. I don't think, I mean he's getting it done right now but I just, I don't have a ton of confidence in it. Yeah. And I feel like it's pretty common. I guess pitchers are always evolving but just as a general rule, you would expect a pitcher strikeout rate to be a little lower in the majors than the miners. And he was absolutely barely getting a strikeout perening in the miners. So I don't, I don't see that as a big part of Zach Thorne's game. Again, it's, it's, there, I agree. There's not a lot in, there's not a lot there to inspire optimism. But besides he is racking up quality starts and you're not going to find much on the waiver wire that you're not going to find many pitchers on the waiver wire that are doing that. So you know, I, I don't think in the long run Thorne's going to be much of anything but I don't think Merrill Kelly is either is the bottom line. That's fair. They definitely have Arania at the top. And he's one that, you know, he hit through 58% of his pitches in this start in the strike zone. And I kind of feel like that should just be the approach because he is so hard to bear a lot. 85.1 mile per hour average. I have a lossy on 15 bad balls in this one. I just, I feel like that's one where he can miss enough bats and limit damage on contact well enough by just aim for the center of the strike zone. Your sinker's going to go down. Your changeup is going to go down. You're not going to hit the center of the strike zone all that often. You don't have that kind of command. But that, you know, just trying to fill up the zone feels like it could be a path for our Walbert Arania to break out. And I, this is the kind of thing where it's like a 270 year A kind of want to be skeptical of it. But 62% roster rated just can't bring myself to be skeptical about it because everybody else is being too skeptical. So I think Walbert Arania is one of the more under roster players in fantasy right now. He feels a little like Jose Soriano. Yeah. Part two. Yeah. And we've mostly seen the positive side of that. They're probably are going to be some negatives. Absolutely. But I would say the key to station there is when Jose Soriano's had good stretches, people tend to buy in. And that has not been the case for Arania. Sure. So our pitchers part two and there's a much lower bar in this one. Kumar Rocker probably had the most interesting start of this group. P.L.A.D. 2-RUN ZINN. against the Mariners on Monday, struck out seven in six and two thirds innings, two walks, 12 whiffs on the slider, two whiffs on the non-sliders, all seven of his strikeouts came on the sliders. It's two good starts in a row. Two starts before that, he had 10 runs and 10 innings. And we have seen good starts from Kumar Rocker before this season. He has never really been able to build on them. And I think it's kind of just 'cause he has one pitch, that slider's awesome and he's just trying to, it's kind of different stuff every time that he's trying, but nothing really works outside of that slider. We also had David Peterson pitched well. Oh, go ahead. I'll tell you something Kumar Rocker did differently in the two good starts though. The last two starts good. And one thing they had in common, other than being good, greatly reduced to sinker. Normally 30%, it was 12% in the first of those two starts. It was 17% in this most recent one. So that's a big decrease for that pitch. And it's pretty awful pitch in terms of results. For Kumar Rocker, the sinker has a 323 batting average against in a 9.2% with rate. It's not good. So he cuts back on his worst pitch, gets some good results. I think he probably, let's see, through that slider, 48% of the time in this one. So it might just be, there he may be trending toward a more optimal pitch selection. - Mm-hmm. - I don't know that the upside is huge here for Kumar Rocker, but he might be turning into something worth using at times. - And relative to the other guys in this group, I think the potential as slim as it is to turn into something useful, almost certainly pushes him to the top of the group, but we'll talk about the other three now. David Peterson, decent start, two earned runs and five and two thirds innings, three strikeouts, two walks against the Cardinals, five whiffs on 86 pitches. It wasn't exactly a ton of weak contact. It is his third good start in a row. I think he got blown up his first one with the Cubs. He's been good since. He's got the Yankees this Saturday. He's 21% rostered. I've also got Brandon Sprote, who was okay. It was a quality start at San Francisco. Probably hope for a little better, but we'll take it as a streamer, five strikeouts, three walks, 12 whiffs on 97 pitches. He's got a 408 ERA in July, but with a 164 whip, he's got a good matchup against the Angels this weekend, though. And then Tyler Malley, no earned runs and six innings against the Brewers, three strikeouts, two walks. He's never gonna be a big strikeout guy. Four earned runs is 18 innings over his past three starts, only 11 strikeouts, six walks in that span. But he has a three year at home. So I do think that's the one thing to keep in mind with Tyler Malley. It's a small sample size, but it's been very effective in San Francisco, which was what we thought might happen. So, Kamarrocker, David Peterson, Brandon Sprote, Tyler Malley, do any of these four matter in a 12 team league? - I cannot see David Peterson or Tyler Malley emerging as anything more than streamers. And they've hardly been that even this year. They have been in past years, but not this year. I would say there's potential with Sprote, of course, but it's been very inconsistent. I mean, previous three starts were all less than five innings. So they weren't, he wasn't doing anything good for you there. This was another pitcher who, in this particular start, he threw his best pitch more, fastball 51% rather than the 23% that has a 194 batting average against. Cutter usage drop from 23% to 5% that has a 352 batting average against. So, like, good call there, Brandon Sprote. Even so, he had a 150 whip on the day and a 450 RA. It was a quality start technically. So I'm unmoved by it, but maybe it was a step forward for Sprote. We'll have to see what happens next time. - All right, we're gonna take one more break and then we will be right back on fancy baseball today. (upbeat music) - Welcome back to Fantasy Baseball today and hey, if you're looking for someone to drop, to add any of those pitchers, well, buddy, I've got a good pitcher to drop for you. I think we are done with the Tatsuya E-My experience. He got chased in the first inning after walking four, allowing one hit, two earned runs, and he got one strikeout, 50% of his outs came by strikeout. It's a great, great performance by Tatsuya E-My. This is the fourth time he has failed to finish even two innings in a start this season. I am not giving up on him forever. I am done with the, ooh, Tatsuya E-My had a good start. Maybe he's turning the corner. Ooh, maybe he will. But I'm gonna need to see a lot more than just a good start here or there, given how disastrous the bad starts continue to be for Tatsuya E-My. He has definitely shown upside. He had eight strikeouts in his previous start, but his 56% roster rate, I mean, there's no way you can trust Tatsuya E-My. So I don't really see him being worth rostering. And this is where he goes on a run. Oh, boy. Today is what happens. He dominates the rest of the season. Everybody blames Chris. It's like that show everybody hates Chris. It's gonna be your life. Boy, do they. Yeah. No, I mean, I agree 100%. But it's. It's the sort of thing, like if you believe there is potential there still, and I do, and you do. Yeah. It could break through at any time. And we're all just kind of at the mercy of that unknown variable. And especially when it's command is the biggest problem. Because that's the kind of thing that can improve overnight. Yeah. But it hasn't. No, it hasn't. And I would probably need. Gonna make it a rule of three. I need to see three great starts from a my in a row. Great starts like the one he had previously with eight strikeouts. If he does that three starts in a row, I might, it might raise my interest again. But just the odd start like that? Yeah. No. All right. Let's move on to some waiver wire hitters from Monday. And I think the biggest one, Jackson Holiday, went four for five with a double. He is hitting three 27 in the month of July now in fairness. He was hitting two 79 before this start, this game. So Karen, a lot of weight that four hit game, but the plate discipline has been tremendous for Jackson Holiday lately, 25% walk rate in the month July, 15% strikeout rate. Yet a 458 OBP coming into this one. And all of a sudden the OBP's up to 341 for the season. The problem is, very little power here. He hasn't homer since June 28th. His average ex of velocity in the month, 86.2 miles per hour. He has a, he had a 0.47 ISO 0.047, excuse me, coming into this start. Look, I'll take any positive signs we can get from Jackson Holiday. I'm not running out to grab him because of this, right? I've been a downer on holiday for a long time. - Mm-hmm. - And I have not seen anything to win me back over that walk to strikeout ratio. Okay, it's good, but it's, - Yeah. - It's about, it's like a tertiary indicator at this point. I need to see, we need to see the basics from Holiday before I get excited about him walking a lot in July. - Yeah, I think it's like, from an Orioles perspective, I think you're pretty pleased with what you've seen from him this season, just because he's looking like he can be at least an average, maybe slightly above average hitter with his on base skills. But we need a lot more than that for fantasy. - Look at that at that 2022 draft where Holiday was first overall. So you got Jackson Holiday first overall, second overall Drew Jones. - That's not a good one. - Third Kumar Rocker. He's in the majors, I guess. Fourth term, Johnson. Definitely, he's stuck down there. Fifth Elijah Green, sixth Jacob Berry. - Marlon's legend, Jacob Berry. - Yeah. And then seventh was Cade Horton, who I think we still have hope for. Brooks Lee, eighth, man, Brooks Lee, eighth. Like I it's funny because I feel like it's that the best picture the best player out of that group He might be I mean you go further down in the draft you got Zach Netto No, but but out of that top one. Yeah, like it's funny because like Brooks Lee Okay, there was him being the eighth pick. He was a highly regrettably prospect the next year But then you looked at the dad and the minors and you're like this guy's not a prospect and and Loan behold is the one who's actually making good on it from that first round That's pretty rough because that man that was like those names you mentioned Outrageously hyped guy. Yep. I mean Jackson Holly and Drew Jones are two of the most hyped high school prospects in the last decade Kumar rocker was Before Paul Schienes argued with the most hyped college picture of the decade Yeah, I'm a professional picture her shoes Yeah, then he gets around three. I mean sorry round two and you got Jacob Mizorowski Oh, I was gonna got Roman Anthony should take those guys in the first round. Yeah, seriously I don't know anything. All right some more waiver wire targets Among hitters and these are very deeply guys Griffin K9 hit a home run hit the walkoff hit off of you on DeRan as well He's hitting 266 with an 887 OPS. It is very small sample size like 110 played appearances He's got 30% strikeout rate. That's always gonna be the case I'm actually kind of surprised it's not higher for a Griffin K9. He does have a 381 expected WoBa on the season which is shocking Do you have any interesting Griffin K9 7% rostered? Not much right not much. I think he's got power Seat been platooning I believe he does not play against lefties very much. Yeah Yeah, so I mean we're talking about a real deeply option I don't need know that it needs to be much more than 7% that roster rate All right, uh, jock Peterson. He has been awesome 856 OPS on the season 19 homers. He has an OPS over a thousand in the month of July He hit his fifth home where he's got two steals in July way to go jock Peterson He's only 13% roster, which is surprising given how productive he's been this season, but while it's been streaky And two what's very recent. Yeah, it's like the last two months really and then two he just I don't know if there is a more platoon platoon bat than jock Peterson and the entire game. I guess soon as a lefty starts warming up I think he gets pulled out of the game basically So 10 of his 19 home runs have come in the last 23 games his last 23 games which Probably aren't the Rangers last 23 games Because of the platoon plus these DH only so it's a it's a tough Like yes, if you knew he was gonna have 10 home runs in a 23 game span He would if you would have devoted that DH bought to him, but of course You shouldn't expect him to have 10 home runs over the next 23 games. So what do you do now? And is it you till only platoon bat? Yeah, yeah It's it's hard to get excited about him It's harder to get excited about either the next two names Tyrone Taylor He's actually really hot right now. He has a 1300 OPS in the month of July had six his six-tone run Of the month Homeward for the second game on in a row on Monday. He very early starts against Rides. He doesn't hit them well Good game for Tyrone Taylor nice little stretch, but don't think there's anything there and then Kobe Mayo Two for four with the home run and two RBI on Monday. He's actually hitting well in July uh, an OPS Near a thousand actually he's got four home runs, but not playing anywhere close to every day still striking out a third of the time Hmm seems like Christian and Kronossi. I'm just trying to taking a lot of playing time from Kobe Mayo. So Not much to get excited about there either. I said it at the top This wasn't the most eventful day and majorly baseball history. I would say so let's move on To some other pictures who were very bad and let's see if we're worrying about them worryometer on a Monday max freed for the Yankees face the white socks He only got through three-annings himself five hits three-on-runs two walks four strikeouts velocity was a little mixed nothing two alarming seven whiffs on 66 pitches He just got really hit really hard, but he was really good in his previous start Zero out of ten zero being you're not worried at all of course. This is max freed. Why would I be worried ten being oh no it's not max freed Where are you at? Well, I'm worried because it's I have some level of worry because it's the second startback from the aisle Um, so I will put it like at a Three maybe Which is not very worried, but you know got a got a account for the unknown element there with the health I don't like you said his first startback was very good And he only made one rehab start too and I don't see much that Seems off about the second star bumpy though it was other than cutter velocity being down But that's it and even that was within a mile per hour, right and I believe the cutter Still played pretty well for being down in velocity Yeah, I'm It's the only reason if this if this was just a random July start for max freed in a season where he's completely healthy when it concerned me in the slightest It's just because second startback for the aisle What about George Kirby? He gave up four homers in four innings to the ranger seven earned runs in those four innings 93.4 mile per hour average ex of velocity velocity was down about one mile per hour on his four seamer And pretty much everything got hit hard and he just has not Been himself this season now the the one thing that has changed lately for George Kirby the walk rate has gone way down It was never high But he was like a six percent walk rate for the first couple of months It's been back down to like three percent for the last couple of months, but still just Really really inconsistent Where you at on George Kirby? Yeah, it's My my concerns for Kirby are more I don't know what word to use existential that doesn't seem like quite the right word they're they're more wholesale Yeah, like it's it's not this not just this start. Yeah My concern for Kirby is that these kinds of starts don't really raise an eye bet brown from me anymore But yeah, it's just like Okay, yeah, that's that's what this version of Kirby does sometimes now this this sometimes happens to the 27th best pitcher and fantasy or whatever You know, whereas we used to think maybe he was a top 12 pitcher and fantasy I I don't think he's that anymore and there was a little bit of hope you know six shut out in his last time He threw his fastball 44% of the time. I believe it got 11 whiffs Which felt a little more like the old George Kirby And we've seen that at times from Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller this year too and I'm lumping them all together because I feel like They all came up having great fastballs and all kind of lost their way By mixing in too much other junk and so For I think Logan Gilbert especially had a run there about four starts where through the fastball 55% Or more and they were all great. It's kind of gotten away from it again recently. Yeah, Bryce Miller He may want to throw the fastball. I'm not sure he's totally healthy and that's what's caused him to trip up recently and then Kirby, you know, it was kind of just that one off with the fastball I'm not sure it's really there for him anymore the way It hopefully is for those other two so yeah, I think Kirby's like a top 30 type in fantasy But not a top 15 type like we used to think of him We are seeing the the usual extreme splits for mariners pictures at home 315 year-a this season on the road 418 whip 164 1064 For the whip at home 1294 on the road strikeout rates significantly higher on at home That's just I think part of why they probably tinker so much is just Seattle's a weird place and you can get away with so much there That you know, you probably want to try to find a way that to to make it work on the road, but yeah, it's been A weird season for Seattle in a lot of ways, but especially with their pictures and then Cal radish um He was getting better results lately Only five run runs in his previous three starts. Well, he matched that today five run runs in four and two thirds ending against tigers Only seven whiffs including only two on the slider and curveball Velo was down about a half mile per hour across the board He just didn't seem to have it today, but He's also just increasingly been a weird pitcher because there was a stretch where it looked like he was starting to click The results have been better lately, but he hasn't had more than five strikeouts in his past five starts Yeah, that's weird for Cow Bradish. That's what caught my attention to last five starts, 6.2K per nine. With an 8.7% swing strike rate, both of those numbers are terrible. And yet, during that five start stretch, they were assigned to a big extension. So I don't seem worried. Maybe they're just, maybe they just made a mistake. I don't know, that's possible. But they know, they know more about Bradish than we do. That's I don't know. He's been, he's been useful for stretches, but overall, he's been a pretty big disappointment this year. And I feel like he's still really difficult to trust. Yeah. Yeah, more like a top 40 starting pitcher. Whereas he had in the worry, I feel like with with him and Kirby, it's less like worry, I'm an ingest. I don't know how good these guys are. Yeah, I haven't been handed out scores of them then for free, right? Yeah. Bradish on the worry, ominor is about a six and Kirby is about a four and a half. Okay. All right, we got some other pitching leftovers, Peyton Tolly. Teasing start, five and a third, two and runs, seven strikeouts. He had the two home runs, where the only runs allowed. He has been a little more homer prone lately. He's got a 4.94 ERA in the month of July. Tons of strikeouts, but hasn't been as effective. Have you seen anything with Peyton Tolly that you're that you're especially worried about here? No, in fact, I'm encouraged. Okay. I'm encouraged because I don't know, it was a few weeks back, I pointed out he really hadn't been getting a lot of whistly lately. Yeah. That's changed. Last six starts of 15.8% swing strike rate, which is top of the lead type of stuff. So, the outings have been short. I still like to see him throw more curve balls when he does break that out. It seems to do really well. It's kind of like Camp Schlippler. He's kind of like a lefty diet camp Schlippler, because he throws the four seamer sinker cutter, not quite as much as Camp Schlippler, but he throws it about 90% of the time. They're all really good. They limit hard contact. He gets whiffs with the four seamer and cutter, especially, but that curve ball does sit there and it's like, I think there's something there. And I think if you're the type of pitcher who over a six start stretch can run a 16% swing strike rate, you might turn into Camp Schlippler someday. So, that remains on the table for Tolly, but probably not going to happen this year. He is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. I think homeruns are just going to kind of be part of the deal for Peyton Tolly, but I think he's very good, otherwise. And then the other one I just wanted to mention, no shultz. He was not good. Again, he hasn't been good at all this season. It's been a rookie. He's looking for it. I just wanted to ask, looking ahead at 2027, have you seen anything to build on for no shultz? Or what would you want to see from him out of the next two months? Something. What do I always want to see? I want to see more whiffs. I want to see fewer walks. The whiffs especially. If you miss a ton of bats, it's not a guarantee. You're going to make it work, but that's the most important skill you can have. Right now, he's got an 8.4% rate as a rookie. That's awful. His zone contact and chase contact rates are both higher than the league average. That's a bad sign for a guy who's supposed to be a stuff monster. And he just has not figured out. Stuff monster. Still, I think there's talent here. Still a definitely a name who's going to be on some light-round sleepers lists for me, but would like to see something here in the next couple of months from no shultz because it's been a very frustrating rookie season for him. Let's move on to some hitters who really needed a big game out of Lopez. Three for five with a triple two runs and two steals. It was actually a surprise. He's still hitting over 300 in July, but he had really slowed down the last couple of weeks. Only one multi-hit game in his previous 11. I believe he still leaves the majors and hits. Still think he's very good. Probably not as good as he looked in the first half, though. Right? Yeah, probably not. I mean, that's what we were saying at the break. I think I think I had him as. How do we present it? Did we call him a bust? That seems a little strong, but yeah, I thought there was a good chance his batting average regressed to something more like 290 for the year. Still around 3.30 now, particularly after this game. I don't know. I actually just moved him up in my rankings. Maybe I was overcorrecting for or not overcorrecting, but correcting for having him too low in the first place. But I, you know, it's still really hard to see somebody sustaining a batting average this high for the season. Yeah. I mean, it could drop 30 points and it still be a really good batting average. Yeah. Just the math doesn't really support it when you're. It's not like he's a high strikeout guy, but he's not a single digit percentage. Yeah, he's 50 percent. He's a point strikeout guy. And it's. He doesn't get a lot of free hits in the form of home runs, meaning free hits. They just totally beat the defense. So you take bat at bat at the equation. Those are the two main ways you can get a batting average that high. And usually you need a combination of both of them. And I don't think Lopez does either quite well enough to be a 3.30 guy, but, you know. I mean, nobody's a 3.30 guy. Aaron Judge and Luis Arraias are kind of the only guys where if they hit 3.30, I'm not shocked. So. Yeah. Yeah. It kind of goes without saying. Yeah. But I think he's a good hitter. And the steals this season, he's the up to 20. He's got to be pretty close if he's not. He is. Well, he had two today, right? He had two today. So that was 22. There you go. It's pretty good. All right. And then the Cubs. We had a couple of big Cubs performances. Alex Bragman, 4 for 5 with a home run, 2 RBI and 3 runs. I felt like he had been doing a little better lately, but he heard this one hitting 192 with a 370 slug in the month of July. He just had a stretch with like three homers and five games, I think. But other than that, he has not really done anything this season. And Scott, that's looking like a pretty good call for you. I know you took some heat for calling Alex Bragman a bust. And I think we were all lower on him. But you were really pounding the table for Alex Bragman. Yeah, I did. I mean, it's not over yet. Still a third of this season to go. And it pretty well with my busts this year. With one glaring exception, the only one anyone is going to remember. It's Jacob, is he asking? Jacob, is he asking? Yeah, not a bust. Turns out. Turns out. Yeah. Look, if you knew that he was never going to throw a pitch under 100 miles an hour. Yeah. And that he's going to like, dramatically improve his control to right where it's a natural struggle. And it's been present throughout his entire professional career, and especially in his rookie season, was just going to go away. Then, okay, not much to harp on anymore. That's okay. You never get. You can never get the whole thing, right? That's unrealistic. You'd be a god if you did that. The thing with Brag. Well, you'd be working for the Dodgers, if you could protect everything. The thing with Bragman is the underlying skill set has also just been much worse this season. In addition to the home park not being very good for him, his expected woe was down to 304 by far the worst of his career. 302 expected woe bond contact. Still making a lot of contact, but the whiff rate on both breaking balls and off-speed pitches is way up. Quality of contact, way down. It's been an extremely rough season for Alex Bragman. And he is 32. So, not sure it's going to get much better, although I'd expect some kind of bounce back from where he's been. And then Nico Horner, he went 4 for 5, 4 RBI, a home run, two runs on Monday. What's gone wrong with him this season? It's been such a weirdly bad season for Nico Horner. Part of me thinks it's a little bit of the like 2025 Luis Raya's thing where he's like gone too far on the contact hitting scale. But then you look at the numbers and he's striking out actually a little more than he did last season. The underlying numbers are pretty much as good as ever. I think it's mostly been bad luck for Nico Horner. What's your thought? I was looking at a fast swing rate to see if he's lost some of that intent. It is half of what it normally is. It's normally like 2.8%. Now it's 1.4%. Eight fewer fast swings over the course of season. Yeah, it seems negligible. The expected batting average is about the same. I don't know that there's anything to it other than just the variance of baseball and and a player who doesn't do much besides hit for average. Yeah, you're going to be you're going to be left with, you know, bad but physical. You know, this raises a question though and I've been wondering this. I don't know if now's the time to bring it up, but I've been wondering it. I'm going to bring it up now because we talk about the Cubs potentially moving these that this bottle neck of infielders that they have at the trade deadline, Pedro Ramirez needs more playing time and James Trianto, who looks like a young Nico Horner potentially and even Matt Shaw. So the reason they have to move them is because they have Alex Breggman, Dance B. Swanson and Nico Horner locked a long term all under contract through at least 2029. If you were the Cubs, would you rather stick with the young unproven guys? Like if it was a binary choice, all three of the young guys I just listed off, Pedro Ramirez, James Trianto's and Matt Shaw and you purge Breggman, Swanson and Horner. Who Horner is probably still fine, but just, you know, presenting a binary choice to get the salaries of the other two off the table. I mean, Swanson still seems fine now, but you know, how is he going to be for the life of the contract? Breggman, who knows? Like he probably just wiped the slate clean and start with the young guys, right? So how motivated are they going to be to trade them? Like could they. That's so much money left over there. That's the thing is you're not going to bench any of those guys. You could try to trade Dance B. Swanson this off season. Yeah, I'm thinking in the off season. That's. Can any of those guys play a plus shortstop? Maybe Nico Horner can. I mean, he's been arguing with the best defensive second baseman in baseball the last few years. I think Horner could. That would be the key thing for me. But Horner's the one of the ones I'm trading in the fictitious scenario. He's probably. He would be the least likely they'd move, I think. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, that's like. I'm doing the math right. I think it's like $80 million per year for the next three years for those three guys combined. My point is just. I don't know how easy of a decision it is for them to trade the Pedro Ramirez and James Trianto's types because I don't know if they should. Knowing that they have them in their back pocket, I don't know that they should feel like they're married to. Sure. The bigger contracts except that they're kind of married to the bigger contracts because that's what a contract is. Yeah. So, I don't know. I'm interested to see what they do. Long story short, I'm interested to see what the Cubs do. It's tough because there's also the human element, right? You're not going to bench those three big contract guys. That does. No. I don't think that is. I don't think that is feasible scenario. But you also can't keep those young guys. You can't keep stringing them along forever like that. That's just. That's because you. That's going to be a clubhouse problem. Well, they have to money. Yes. I don't think they just keep them all on the bench. I don't think. Like that, probably they end up trading the young guys because it'll be easier to trade them and they'll get a better return for them. And mash up the. And mash up the. Probably starting left fielder next year, I guess? Yeah. Well, yeah. They don't have to trade all three of the young guys, but probably they trade one or two of them. But if they wanted to try something more radical because they believe in the young guys and want to try and get out from under those contracts, I think there's a case for that. It will be more difficult, though. That's an interesting thought. All right, the call to the bullpen. You wander on was extremely bad giving up three runs on five hits to blow the save. He had not allowed a run since June 9th. That's baseball season. Baltimore Rico Garcia puttastic perfect ninth inning versus Detroit for his fifth save. He hadn't worked the night since June 30th. So this whole situation feels pretty messy to me and feeling like Spatista does loom at some point. I know he's been throwing bullpen sessions. So we might see him down the stretch, but you have any feel for who the Baltimore closer is right now? Do they have one? Yeah, I think it's well. I think it's well. Obviously this happens and it raises your doubts a little bit, but they had been pretty consistent with him. Prior to that. All right, speaking of consistency, the giants gave Eric Miller the save on Monday. It was his first save since April 26th. Do the giants have a closer? Was that wells for what it worth for what it's worth had worked to the previous three days and four of the previous eight days. So he probably and five of the previous 10 days actually six to the 11 day. He probably needed a day off. Okay, that could explain it for Baltimore on the San Francisco side. JT Brewmaker had the last save on July 11th before that it was Kalea Kalean on July 2nd and 4th. I do not think the giants have a closer. How about you? No, if I had to pick anybody, it'd be Kalean, but it's they they've had they haven't been committed to anybody all season long. Who was the guy? Randy Rodriguez. Any chance? Any chance? He's coming back anytime soon. Probably not. Right? Now I think he got a surgery like last September. That's happening this year. Named to watch for 2027. Randy Rodriguez looked like he was emerging as a closer for the giants and then on the angels, Jose Firmin got the ninth and the whole angels team melted down as they are want to do on occasion. He and Sam Bachman combined to allow four runs, four runs only one earned on two walks, a hit, a hit by a pitch and multiple errors including one by Bachman. Truly gross stuff if you were watching. Do the angels have a closer? Do we want that closer if they did have a closer? The angels do not have a closer. I think Kirby should be Kirby H should be the closer. I don't know why we're on a first name basis. I think it worked like the seventh or eighth inning the previous couple of times. I think he should be but they're showing no move toward making it the closer. So now we don't have a closer and you don't want to. I think the leader and saves on that team the rest of the way might be Ben Joyce who is currently not on the roster but is on a rehab assignment. All right. The streamer not to stream for Tuesday. We got Brandon Fought versus Pittsburgh, but but Chandler on the other side versus Arizona, Christian Scott versus the brave Shane Bieber at the nationals Anthony K versus the Yankees Jake Bennett versus the athletics, not Oakland. Sacramento. Not Oakland. Not exactly technically either. Not officially. I think that's so lame. Technically, but not officially. I think they are officially just the athletics. They are. I know they are officially just the athletics, but you could say technically they're Sam. I think they are. No, no, Sacramento, the West Sacramento athletics. I think it's lame to pretend. It's kind of correct. I think it's lame to pretend you're not playing in Sacramento. I think it's because it's for three years. It's not like the the rays, you know, playing I guess they were still on campus. That's a bad example. It's not like the blue jays playing in Deniden. They wouldn't go by the Deniden Dunedin. Someone told us how to say it and I completely forgot. But either way, like you're done eating. I'm done. Yeah. I'm ready to clean up. You know, someone knowing that I'm from Florida and I'm a baseball person asked me the other day. What had to pronounce that and I don't know. I think it's different than the one in Scotland. Very likely. Yeah. Jake Bennett versus the Sacramento athletics is the only one I like here, I think. Yep. I like him and I don't like anyone else. I Christian Scott against the Braves might be fine. All right. Wednesdays, Zach Latel versus the Blue Jays, Grant Holmes against the Met, Shamanaya versus the Braves, Shane Drow and at San Francisco, Ian Seymour versus Texas, Dustin May versus the Cubs, Jacob Lopez versus the Red Sox and Patrick Sannival at the athletics. I think this is a little more interesting. I think Ian Seymour is good. Yes, that's obvious. Shane Drow on at the Giants is obvious. I think that was pretty good. Dustin May pretty close. Last start was good. Before that was a disaster for about a month and a half. Yeah, he's probably the third choice though, distant third choice. Yeah. All right. That is going to do it for Fantasy Baseball today. On Monday, we will be back tomorrow. We'll see you then. Bye bye. Hello and welcome to Pluto Fall. If you know the name of the movie you'd like to see, the Matrix, Transformers, Rise of the Beast or Mean Girls. That is so effects. Just stream it for free on Pluto TV. Stream now, pay never.