October 6th, 2026: Iran Is Losing Control of Its Biggest Bargaining Chip & U.S. Moves B-1 Bombers

It's Tuesday, the 6th of October. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, and your eyes and ears are on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's biggest bargaining chip may be starting to lose its value, as golf oil exports recovered to pre-war levels, and pressure on the Iran-backed Houthis grows around the Bab al-Mandab straight. Later in the show, the U.S. has pulled all of its B-1 bombers out of a key British airbase amid growing security concerns over suspected plots targeting that facility. Plus, a former Russian serviceman, accused by Ukraine of torturing prisoners of war, has been killed in a car bombing inside Russia. And in today's back of the brief, the FBI has arrested a woman accused of spying for China after she allegedly surveilled the U.S.-based son of Taiwan's president. But first, today's PDB spotlight. The Iranian regime appears to be losing control of its biggest bargaining chip. From once now, Tehran's most powerful tool has been the threat that he composed to the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow waterway carries roughly one sith of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas. And for the beginning of this war, Iran has relied on its ability to make that traffic dangerous, unpredictable, and expensive. But new shipping data suggests that leverage is now weakened considerably. According to Reuters, golf oil exports climbed back to pre-war levels per roughly half of September. By the end of the month, the seven-day moving average for crude exports had reached about 18.3 million barrels per day. On 14 separate days last month, exports matched or exceeded the levels seen before the war began. Now, liquefied natural gas shipments to the region have also recovered, reaching their highest levels since February. And that is a serious problem for the Iranian regime. Tehran's leverage was never simply that it could fire missiles or drones at ships. The leverage came from its ability to impose a major economic cost on the U.S., the Gulf states, and the wider world by making Hormuz unreliable. If Saudi Arabia Iraq, tanker operators, and refiners can keep roughly normal volumes moving despite the danger, well, then Iran's threat obviously becomes less effective, possibly at one point becomes moot. And there is another problem built into Tehran's strategy. It's got something of an expiration date. The longer there are disruption of the strait continued, the better the region has become and adapting. Saudi Arabia is moving oil through both the Gulf and the Red Sea. Iraq has secured permission from some tankers to pass through Hormuz. Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have surged to the point that analysts say they're approaching their limits. Of course, none of this is cheap or easy. Shipping costs do remain elevated, routes are more complicated and the risk is not disappeared. But the important point is that the system is learning how to function around Iran's pressure campaign. And just as that is happening, well, attacks on commercial shipping are suddenly increasing, I guess we could have seen that coming. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks says at least seven incidents were recorded in the last week. On October 1st, the Kuwaiti super tanker, Kazimah III, was struck by an unknown projectile, all passing through the strait, causing a fire on board. Then on the 4th of October, the Liberian flag tanker Lipsi was hit northeast of Oman, damaging its engine room. No casualties were reported in either of those attacks. British maritime authorities have also reported at least one attack per day, in either the strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2nd. And there's one detail in the latest reporting that does really stand out. Marisks says the pattern of attacks may not reflect Iranian forces carefully selecting individual commercial vessels. Instead, analysts say Iran may be firing missiles into a predetermined engagement area, a kind of maritime kill box and allowing the weapons to acquire whatever radar targets are available inside that zone. We can't say with certainty that this is Iran's strategy and we can't really know Tehran's precise motive for the recent increase in the attacks, but the timing is difficult to ignore. Oil exports are recovering. LNG shipments are climbing, Gulf states are finding ways to keep commerce moving. And just as Iran's grip on Hormuz appears to be loosening, tanker attacks are becoming more frequent and potentially less discriminating. Now the strait of Hormuz is only half of the story. We've also been closely tracking Iran's other major pressure point on international shipping, and that would be the Babalman Deb Strait, where the Houthis have spent months threatening vessels moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. But that strategy is now running into serious headwinds as well. Saudi back to many forces have launched a major offensive against the Houthis, retaking positions around the Bab and pushing back toward areas overlooking the Babalman Deb. The broader operation is now openly aimed at retaking Sanaa and breaking Houthi control of Yemen's capital. So when we look at where things stand, it had the strait of Hormuz oil traffic is returning despite Iran's pressure. And the Babalman Deb Strait, the Houthis are now facing a Saudi back campaign, aimed at rolling back the territorial gains that helped them threaten that waterway. Those are the two choke points, through which Iran and its allies have been able to impose enormous economic pressure on the region and the wider world. And right now, both are moving in the wrong direction for the regime. All right, coming up next, the U.S. pulls its B-1 bombers out of a key British base amid security concerns. While a former Russian serviceman, accused of torturing Ukrainian POWs, is killed in a car bombing in Russia. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, regular listeners of the PDB know that I am constantly traveling. And when you're on the road, a reliable, well-designed power bank is an essential everyday item that makes life much, much easier. That's why Rich's 5-1 travel power bank makes the ultimate gift, whether for someone on your list or for yourself, and it is true, the gift-giving season is right around the corner. Rich's 5-1 travel power bank has it all, built in cables, mag-safe wireless charging, Apple Wads charger, plus lightning in USB-C. For anyone upgrading to the new iPhone 18, the charger deserves an upgrade too, don't you think? It packs 20 watts of power, and look at this. It's got a 10,000 milliampere hour battery, as if I know what that means, for up to three full charges. That's powerful. That's what I know. It's powerful. Plus a lifetime warranty. 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Fairford's role in American strategic bomber operations stretches back more than 70 years. And during the war against Iran, it became a major launch point for strikes against the regime. Flight trackers spotted the aircraft leaving over the weekend. Pentagon subsequently confirmed their departure quote, while operational security precluded us from confirming the movement of our assets and forces in real time. All US bombers that were deployed to R-I-F Fairford have redeployed to their home stations in the US. Now, as for why they left, anonymous American officials told Wall Street Journal on Sunday that the decision came down to security concerns over suspected plots against the base. For those who have been following our coverage, you'll remember that six suspects were arrested in connection with what American and British officials said was a suspected attack, foiled just this past month. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham subsequently said there were "strong indications" that Iran played a role. According to the journal, US officials were aware of an alleged Iran-linked plot to attack American bomber aircraft and killed personnel at R-I-F Fairford. And a senior US official offered the paper more detail about how it was supposed to work. A branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRG Seam, had allegedly recruited British nationals, carried it out, with multiple steps planned, including a diversion in the nearby neighborhood. So the alleged targets were both America's bombers and the Americans operating them. Yet the suspects were released on bail one day after they were picked up, with British authorities still investigating and major questions about what happened and who was behind it still left unanswered. Now, as I've mentioned, Iran denies involvement. There is a shock, but a NATO military source warned Monday, quote, it is still believed that Iran poses an acute threat to US assets in the UK. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though, is cautioning against directly connecting that departure to the suspected Iranian plot. Asked yesterday whether the plot prompted the move, Rubio said, quote, "I wouldn't just directly tie that to the move that was made." His explanation was that these decisions depend on where military acts assets are needed." The Department of War is constantly reallocating resources where they need to be. Rubio also said Washington remains confident in the security of all its bases. And that leaves us with American officials citing security concerns in their comments to the journal, while Rubio stops short of tying the withdrawal directly to the suspected plot. Whatever prompted the decision, there is a practical reason that this matters for American military operations. Flying from Britain puts those bombers considerably closer to Iran, then launching from the continental U.S. At the height of the war, roughly two dozen B1s and B52s were deployed to Fairford. The B1 was especially useful because of the large number of munitions that it could carry. As a conflict dragged on, that force gradually got smaller. The B52s left, and some B1s returned home, leaving the dozen aircraft that have now also withdrawn. So whatever the full explanation for bringing them home, the result is a significant change in America's deployment of bombers. All right, I want to shift now to Russia, where the list of men linked to Moscow's war effort and killed in car bombings as reportedly grown again. The latest is a former prison official accused by Ukraine of helping beat and electrocute prisoners of war. In a new report from the Keeve Post, we know his name is Roman Assyramatnikov, and according to Russian telegram channels, an explosive device planted beneath a driver's side of his car, detonated on Friday in Western Russia's some 120 miles south of Moscow. A local news outlet also reported his death on Saturday. Russian authorities, however, have not confirmed that Andsyramatnikov was the person killed. Now to understand the accusations against him, we should look at his time, working inside Russia's prison system. Syramatnikov worked for the country's federal penitentiary service before signing a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry in 2023 and serving with the 106th Guards Airborne Division in Ukraine. But it's his alleged treatment of captured Ukrainian soldiers inside Russia that drew the attention of Ukrainian prosecutors. Ukraine's prosecutor general's office accuses Syramatnikov of involvement in the torture of at least 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war held at a penal colony in Russia's Tula region. And what investigators alleged is fairly severe. They say that he and other prison employees beat captured soldiers with batons, pipes, and hammers, and subjected them to electric shocks. These were Ukrainian troops already in Russian custody, of course, as prisoners of war depended on their captors for their safety. Now Syramatnikov has reportedly been killed in the same Russian region where those abuses allegedly took place. And while we don't know who carried out this bombing, his reported fate echoes that of several members of Russia's top brass killed during the war. Part of a broader pattern of attacks targeting military personnel and others connected to Moscow's war effort. If you're a regular PDB listener, you've heard me talk about these attacks before, with Kiev's intelligence sources linking at least a dozen high-profile assassinations and localized blasts to Ukrainian security services. One of the most recent cases cited in that reporting came in June of 2026 when Colonel Damir Davidov was killed in a car bombing outside Moscow. Davidov held a critical logistics position directly managing the supply lines, carrying heavy artillery shells and missiles to Russian units fighting on the front. His role helps explain the stakes of that broader campaign. Those supply lines keep Russian forces armed and able to continue their attacks on Ukraine. So, you ask, where do Ukraine's intelligence agencies fit into this? The security service of Ukraine, known as the SPU, and Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, known as the HUR, have been linked to previous targeted killings. An SPU source confirmed the agency's responsibility for the December 2024 bombing that killed Russian general Igor Karelov in Moscow, and Ukrainian military intelligence has claimed responsibility for other attacks. But that history does not tell us who planted the bomb in Syromatnikov's car. Ukraine has acknowledged responsibility for some targeted killings inside Russia, while remaining silent on others. The reporting on this explosion so far does not establish who exactly carried it out. And in today's back of the brief, a suspected Chinese agent has been arrested at Los Angeles Airport in LAX after allegedly gathering information on the son of Taiwan's president while he was living in the US. More on that when we come back. Okay, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Now, one of the most frustrating things about owning a home is that major repairs never happen at a convenient time. You know what I'm talking about? 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I know where Monty is all the time and I know how he's doing. Plus tracking his activity and sleep habits, let's me catch those subtle health changes early instead of at the vet. With FI, you'll stop guessing about your pet. That sounds pretty good, doesn't it? Get peace of mind with FI. And right now, FI is offering our PDB listeners up to 30% off and free shipping when you visit FITracking.com and enter promo code PDB. That's FITracking.com promo code PDB. In today's back of the brief, a suspected Chinese agent is a rested at Los Angeles Airport, LAX, while attempting to board a flight to Shanghai. Investigators alleged she was spying on the Taiwanese president's son here in the US, gathering information Beijing could use to press your Taiwan's leader. The woman at the center of this case is 34-year-old Wang Ying Zheng, a realtor from Southern California. Now, realtors make the best spies, don't they? She now faces a charge of acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government. According to law enforcement sources who spoke with CBS News, her target was a "ting you lie," the son of Taiwanese president, Leiching Duh. He's an engineer in his 30s, living stateside with his wife and their young American-born son. The FBI says Yang and in the accomplice "traveled to the Seattle area and took photographs at the family suburban home." An investigator say the reason for that surveillance could be straight forward. Information about the president's close relatives, their homes, their vehicles, movements could potentially give Beijing leverage over Taiwan's leader during a future crisis or conflict. But how does a California realtor allegedly end up with that assignment? Now that is a question worth asking. I'll take you back to June of 2025, several months before the surveillance occurred in Seattle. According to the complaint, Zhang attended Beijing's University of International Relations, which investigators say, "as close ties to China's Ministry of State Security, the MSS." Beijing's main civilian intelligence agency. The MSS's responsibilities roughly combine the CIA's foreign intelligence work with the FBI's counterintelligence functions. Investigators say a former classmate introduced Zhang to a Chinese government official. She allegedly met with that official during a trip to China and was given the surveillance assignment. Afterward, according to the complaint, Zhang sent a message saying, "I can take care of this thing." Then in late August, she allegedly told her contact she planned to travel to Seattle the following week. Less than a week later on September 1st, the FBI says Zhang and a man identified in the complaint only as individual one flew from Las Vegas to Seattle. They rented a car and drove to the family's suburban home. That evening, Ting-Yu, his wife and their child arrived home. A neighbor's security camera allegedly captured Zhang and her accomplice appearing to film them. CBS News says it independently matched the images included in the criminal complaint to an address near Seattle owned by Ting-Yu. Then Zhang allegedly reported back to her Chinese government contact, quote, "saw him young male." She allegedly told the contact she was recording video and then sent two license plate numbers. So how did investigators get those messages? The FBI obtained a search warrant? Young's I Cloud account and recovered them from there. And according to the criminal complaint, she was communicating with more than one apparent Chinese government contact. Of course, the allegations against Young still have to be proven in court. OK. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, this 6th of October. If you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And I hope if you have it already, you'll take a few moments to check out our YouTube channel. As the kids these days say, it's a hum-dinger. Just wander over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief. And if you like what you see and hope you do, hopefully you'll hit that subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. (upbeat music)