October 23rd, 2026: Israel Sends Dozens of Fighter Jets Toward Iran & Russia's Secret Cable Surveillance

It's Friday, the 23rd of October. If you're in the US, you've got about a week to get your Halloween costumes sorted out. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new reports suggest that the US and Israel are preparing for another round of strikes against Iran after November's midterm elections on the 3rd of November. We'll break down the military plans and what it could be coming next. Remember the old days back when you didn't let everyone know about your military plans ahead of time. Later in the show, the Pentagon is reportedly developing a new deep-cover spy program aimed at China and other American adversaries, potentially expanding US intelligence operations into economic warfare. At the risk of repeating myself, I remember when we didn't talk about plans to develop deep-cover spy programs because, well, they were secret. Plus, Russia is reportedly using fishing trawlers to spy on Britain's critical undersea cables, can't swing a dead calf without it in the spy nowadays, with officials warning that Moscow may be mapping the infrastructure for future sabotage. And in today's back of the brief, Israel heads to the polls next week, with Prime Minister Netanyahu's political future in the balance. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Dozens of Israeli fighter jets have carried out a major military operation near Iran's border, flying more than 800 miles from Israel, along a route consistent with an actual attack mission. And now, new reporting suggest the US and Israel are preparing for another round of strikes against Iran following November's US midterm elections. According to Axios, the Israeli Air Force operation involved dozens of fighter jets accompanied by aerial refueling aircraft. The planes traveled through Syrian and Iraqi airspace, following a route that Israeli pilots could use to carry out strikes against Iranian targets. As they approached Iran's border, the aircraft turned around and returned to Israel without entering Iranian airspace. Israeli officials described the operation as a military exercise, intended to demonstrate the country's ability to project air power over long distances. They also said it was meant to discourage Iran from launching attacks against Israel ahead of next week's Israeli elections. But some American officials reportedly have another interpretation of what happened. Axios reports that some US officials believe Israel may have been hoping Iran would fire on the approaching aircraft, potentially providing justification for another round of Israeli strikes. The Israelis knew their jets would likely be detected by Iranian air defense systems, and Washington had been notified of the exercise in advance. Now, that is admittedly a best guess from unnamed American officials, not an established account of Israel's intentions. Other officials described the flight as a legitimate deterrence exercise. And now, there are growing indications of preparations for another military campaign or already underway. According to the New York Times, American and Israeli military planners have developed options for a new offensive against Iran that could begin after the November 3, US midterm elections. One proposal involves a short but intensive military campaign lasting approximately three days. Potential targets reportedly include Iranian nuclear facilities, missile and drone capabilities, and portions of the country's energy infrastructure. The US is also assembling additional military forces in the region. According to the reporting, the deployment includes three aircraft carriers, Marines, combat aircraft, and special operations personnel were the build-up expected to be completed by early November. Now, to be clear, President Trump has not authorized another attack. He has repeatedly rejected proposals to resume major military operations against Iran, including an offensive that American and Israeli forces were reportedly preparing to launch earlier this month. The administration's apparent preference has been to maintain pressure, particularly economic pressure on Tehran, while leaving Rome for negotiations. The question facing military planners is whether another concentrated round of strikes could convince Iran's leadership to make concessions that months of fighting and economic pressure have failed to produce. And there's another complication. Washington and Jerusalem may not be working toward precisely the same objective. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has now publicly declared that overthrowing Iran's government is the only way to permanently eliminate the threat from Tehran. He says he's directed the Israeli military, Mossad, and other security agencies toward that goal. Netanyahu also accused Iran's new, possibly alive, possibly not, supreme leader, Mustafa Hamani, of continuing efforts to develop nuclear weapons despite the damage inflicted during previous American and Israeli operations. For Netanyahu, the stated objective is no longer simply destroying Iran's nuclear facilities or weakening its military. The goal is regime change. Now that's of course a much more ambitious undertaking than a three-day bombing campaign designed to pressure Tehran into negotiations. And it raises questions about what happens if the US launches another limited offensive, but Israel wants to continue fighting until the regime collapses. Iranian officials have already warned that another American Israeli offensive could trigger retaliation against targets across the region, including oil facilities, data centers, and undersea communications infrastructure. One advisor to Iran's negotiating team has dismissed the idea of a limited 72-hour campaign, warning that Tehran's response would be more severe than previous attacks. And that is the central problem with the proposed military operation. American planners may believe another concentrated campaign could finally force Iran's leadership to negotiate. But after nearly eight months of war, damaged military infrastructure, mounting economic pressure and repeated threats from Washington, Tehran still hasn't agreed to the concessions that the administration is seeking. So you ask what would another three days of bombing actually accomplish? It could destroy additional Iranian military capabilities. They could further weaken the country's economy, but there's no guarantee it would force the regime to change its position, particularly if Iranian leaders believe that they can survive the attacks and retaliate against American interests elsewhere. Now, coming up next, the Pentagon plans a new deep-cover spy program targeting China, while it's good of them to tell us, and Russia reportedly is using fishing trawlers to map Britain's undersea cables for potential sabotage. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you've probably noticed, but fall is here, right? And football is back. And that means extra time in the kitchen fixing game day meals on Saturdays and Sundays. Now, whether flipping game day burgers or frying wings or cooking breakfast before the kickoff, well, burnt pans and difficult clean-ups should not be part of your routine. That's where Hexclad changes everything. Hexclad combines heavy-duty stainless steel performance with non-stick convenience in one single pan seriously. You gotta try these things out. They are incredible. Get a proper sear, excellent heat distribution, and everless food release every single time. These hybrid pans handle extreme heat up to 900 degrees. They stay completely dishwasher, safe, and stand up to metal utensils without scratching. Even Gordon Ramsay swears by them at home and in his restaurants, and you know what he's like. He's not easy to please, and I'm putting it diplomatically. Plus, every set comes back by a lifetime warranty. Don't go into football season with cookware that makes game day meals harder than they need to be. Upgrade your kitchen with Hexclad and make cooking, hosting, and cleanup easier all season long. For a limited time, only PDB listeners get 10% off your order with our exclusive link. Just head on over to Hexclad.com. That's H-E-X-C-L-A-D Hexclad.com/PDB. Again, Hexclad.com/PDB. And if you don't mind, tell them the PDB sent you. Welcome back to the PDB. The Pentagon is reportedly planning a deep cover spy program to penetrate foreign economic networks with officers posing as businessmen with no visible connection to the US government, so spies operating as businessmen, which just proves the old saying that there is nothing new under the sun. Intelligent services around the world have been doing this since spying was invented, which was just after prostitution was invented. Anyway, the news about the Pentagon's plans comes from an exclusive investigation by the Washington Post, which spoke with six people familiar with the initiative all on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive effort, because well, they're supposed to keep their pie hole shut and not discuss sensitive information, but that seems too difficult for them. Those sources say it remains in planning and is not operational. Now, the Pentagon denies such an initiative is underway. Deputy Press Secretary Jacob Bliss told the Post a reporting was based on information that was, quote, simply not true. He accused its sources of being, quote, "either badly misinformed or deliberately leading you astray," end quote. But, you know what, let's play along with the post-reporting and their sources who can keep their apps shut and ask ourselves what would a program like this be designed to accomplish. Well, the reported goal would be to support the Pentagon's economic warfare campaign by uncovering secrets and industries, such as artificial intelligence, advanced semiconductors, and biotechnology. Technologies that could of course [BLANK_AUDIO] our Beijing's next generation of weapons. The CIA has already signaled a greater focus on these targets. In September, CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis discussed expanding espionage against Chinese companies working in those industries, an unusual public acknowledgement of a long-standing intelligence target. The Pentagon has already begun building out their public-facing side of that economic campaign. Not to be outdone in the category of, let me tell you about super-secret stuff that we might just be doing. Earlier this year, Deputy Secretary of War Steve Feinberg announced an economic defense unit. I'll bet that's gonna be the EDU. Describing his mission as, quote, "deterring, denying, disrupting, and helping to defeat." Adversaries, that's four D's. So they're serious. Through economic means, end quote. Its investments include $750 million to help secure access to a major rare earth mineral deposit in Brazil, supporting supplies essential to advanced electronics and weapons systems. The proposed spy program would add a clandestine component to that broader strategy. Now, following a standard playbook of how to conduct operations, its officers would assume roles as executives, consultants, or other private sector professionals. They could put them in places where an overt American official would attract immediate suspicion and attention. Overseeing to planning, according to the post, is Tom Rockison, a former CIA veteran who became deputy director of operations in 2017, and now serves as a senior advisor to find Berg at the Pentagon. He's essentially brought the agency playbook over to the Pentagon for conducting non-official cover operations. The effort has drawn in military intelligence specialists and retired CIA officers, according to the post reporting, whether it would become a standalone unit or expand existing military human intelligence capabilities remains unclear. But the Pentagon would also have to work through resistance from within America's intelligence community. One former senior at CIA official, familiar with the discussions, put that objection bluntly. Quote, "Rockison just wants to build his own CIA down in the Pentagon." Well, to be fair, there is a long tradition of government agencies and organizations wanting to protect their turf, build out their own capabilities, no matter how redundant, and increase the size of their fiefdoms. The CIA has traditionally guarded its responsibility for clandestine human intelligence operations overseas and insisted that other agencies coordinate their activities through the CIA station chiefs and the country concerned. The Pentagon has its own intelligence capabilities and authorities, of course, but expanding its deep-cover operations could intensify those disputes. Beyond the agency rivalry, the proposed program's legal footing also remains unclear. The post reports unresolved questions about how it would fit within military and intelligence authorities while the relevant congressional committees don't appear to have been briefed. Hmm, all right. From spies in the business world, to suspected spies on fishing boats, off-British shores, Russian trawlers have repeatedly loitered over undersea cables and followed their layout for miles. British officials recognizing the obvious fear that Moscow is studying how to disrupt the networks, connecting the UK with America and Europe. An analysis published by the Telegraph, examined four and a half years of vessel tracking data from global fishing watch. Over that period, it identified more than 500 suspicious incidents involving Russian trawlers. Now, operating near a cable doesn't automatically make a fishing boat a spy ship, but the repeated pattern has drawn the attention of British officials and NATO intelligence personnel. One NATO source offered a fairly blunt assessment, telling the newspaper, "We're absolutely aware of what Russian civilian fishing ships are up to and where. Some of these ships have never seen a single fish on their deck," end quote. Well, that could just be bad luck after all it's called fishing, not catching. Some days are like that. But it does raise an obvious question. If they're not there to catch fish, what are they looking for? British officials say Putin is using what they call "commercial proxies" to map the precise locations of these cables in case of conflict. That gives Moscow plausible deniability, a Russian warship, operating near critical infrastructure, of course, is going to attract attention. A fishing trawler, well, has an obvious commercial reason to be out at sea. That fits the logic of Grey's own warfare, preparing to disrupt an adversaries' essential services while obscuring who is responsible. We're talking about infrastructure here supporting critical data and communications, transportation, financial institutions, hospitals, phone networks, other essential services. These networks do have alternative routes, so cutting one cable would not necessarily cause widespread disruption, but coordinated informed damage to several key cables would be much more serious. But the concerns about Russia's intentions don't rest on fishing boats alone. In September, Britain, Norway, and the US reportedly confronted Russian submersibles in Arctic waters as they trained to use a specialized weapon intended to disable undersea cables. The vessels were associated with Moscow's secret of main directorate of deep sea research known as Guggi, G-U-G-I, which is just fun to say. Guggi conducts specialized underwater military and intelligence operations. According to the reporting, NATO forces intercepted the vessels and forced them to leave. Earlier this year, Britain's defense secretary issued a warning to Putin after Russian attack and intelligence gathering submarines were detected operating in the North Atlantic. In response to those concerns, London is preparing to strengthen the laws protecting those undersea cables. Under the existing framework described in the reporting, certain offenses involving interference with communications cables can carry fines of just 1,000 pounds. Prosecutors can pursue prison sentences when they prove an offense was committed on behalf of a foreign power. Seriously, a 1,000-pound fine. In a forthcoming white paper, the British government is expected to propose lengthy prison sentences and unlimited fines for damaging critical undersea infrastructure. Of course, tougher penalties are only part of the response. Britain also needs to detect threats and protect the cables before damage occurs. The British Ministry of Defense says the government is investing approximately $440 million more to strengthen protection for critical undersea infrastructure. The department says it is, quote, "clear-eyed" about the threat that Russia poses. Alongside its NATO allies, Britain is strengthening maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare capabilities to better detect and counter Russian activity. OK, coming up in the back of the brief Israel heads to the polls next week, and new polling suggests that neither Prime Minister Netanyahu nor his opponents have a clear path to victory. More on that when we come back. Now, you may have noticed that the US midterm elections are heating up. That's putting it mildly. Congressional control possible, Senate control, and President Trump's agenda are all basically on the ballot and up for grabs. Now, every new poll and every new article has a potential to shift the odds. And here's the thing. Kalshi, America's number one prediction market platform, lets you trade those predictions in a live market. One race worth watching is Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sahed is facing Republican Mike Rogers for an open Senate seat. Now, right now on Kalshi, El-Sahed is trading at 68% to win, while Rogers is sitting at 32%. But the polls actually show a much closer contest, where the candidates separated by only a few points. Kalshi traders are pricing their chances of winning much differently. And with election day coming up on the 3rd of November, those numbers could continue to move. You can follow Michigan and other major races across the country on Kalshi. On Kalshi, your trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house. And as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position. Download Kalshi, that's K-A-L-S-H-I. Use code PDB to get $25 when you trade $25. That's Kalshi, again, Kalshi, mandatory disclaimer. Trade what's next, 18 years and older only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see kalshi.com/regulatory. In today's back of the brief, with Israel's general election just days away, the latest polling suggests neither Prime Minister Netanyahu nor his main political rival is on track to secure a parliamentary majority. That raises the prospect of a political stalemate with smaller parties than potentially holding the balance of power. According to the new Arab, an average of seven polls conducted over the past week shows that Netanyahu's political block and the opposition block led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkott are each projected to win 51 seats in Israel's 120-member parliament. That would leave both sides 10 seats short of a majority. Now, as a reminder, Israelis don't directly elect their Prime Minister. They vote for political parties competing for seats in the Knesset, that's Israel's parliament. Because no single party is expected to win a majority on its own, parties with similar political interests typically join forces to form a governing coalition. And that requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers. Eisenkott's Yashar party is projected to win 22 seats narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Lakood party at 21. But those figures represent the individual parties, rather than their broader political alliances, when the other parties align with each leader and those who are included. included, both political blocks are projected to hold 51 seats. That means the smaller parties and their willingness to support either side will prove decisive in determining who forms Israel's next government. And one group that could have an outsized influence is Israel's Arab parties, which are projected to increase their combined representation from 10 to 14 seats. But both Netanyahu and Eisenkut have ruled out forming coalitions with those parties, potentially making the path to a parliamentary majority even more difficult. On Netanyahu's side, National Security Ministry to Mar-Benguvera's far right Jewish power party is projected to win eight seats running independently after competing as part of an electoral alliance in 2022. But Ben-Gvera is already aligned with Netanyahu, meaning a strong showing could strengthen his influence within the Prime Minister's political camp without necessarily bringing that broader coalition any closer to a majority. And there have been two other significant developments in the final days of the campaign. As we reported earlier this week on the PDB, President Trump has thrown his full support behind Netanyahu, describing him as a great warrior and making clear that he wants his long time ally to remain in power. But the first poll, published after Trump's endorsement, showed Eisenkut's party leading Lekud by three seats. Unlike the seven poll average cited earlier, this individual survey projected 55 seats for the broader opposition block, compared with 51 for Netanyahu's allies. Meanwhile, former Defense Minister Ben-Gvera announced Monday that his blue and white party would withdraw from the race after polling suggested it would fail to win enough votes to enter parliament. That could redirect some of his supporters toward other opposition parties, potentially reshaping the final numbers. Of course, polls are only snapshots of voters sentiment, and as you as voters know, the actual lecture results could change the political calculations considerably. But even if Netanyahu or Eisenkut emerges with the largest party in the Knesset, that alone won't guarantee either man the primership. With neither major block currently projected to secure a majority, the real contest will likely begin after the votes are counted, as smaller parties become the Kingmakers in the battle to form Israel's next government. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday the 23rd of October. Now if you have any questions or comments, just reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And of course, like clockwork, every Friday brings a brand new episode of our Weekend Show, the PDB's Situation Report. You can catch it this evening at 10PM on the first TV, and as always, new and past episodes are available on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief, and wherever you get your podcast stuff. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. (upbeat music)