October 22nd, 2026: Armed Rebels Are Taking the Fight to Iran's Government & Suspected Iranian Spies in Britain

It's Thursday, the 22nd of October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's regime faces a growing threat from within as armed opposition groups escalate attacks against government security forces. Later in the show, British authorities re-arrest two men suspected of assisting Iranian intelligence with a terrorist plot targeting a UK airbase used by American bombers. Plus, a major mystery possibly solved, although not quite, regarding Ukraine. New reporting reveals that Elon Musk reportedly, supposedly, personally ordered the Starlink restrictions that disrupted Ukrainian military operations and that reportedly blindsided officials in Kiev and Washington. And in today's back of the brief, Russia releases a 74-year-old American teacher imprisoned since 2022, as President Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, praises Vladimir Putin as a, quote, humanitarian. Seriously, I don't think that word means what Witkoff thinks it means. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Iran's government is facing a growing threat from within as armed opposition groups launch increasingly sophisticated attacks against security forces in the country's southeast. Police stations are coming under fire, military convoys are being ambushed, and senior security officials are being targeted for assassination. And all of this is happening as Tehran struggles with the consequences of its war against the U.S. and Israel. An economy in crisis and apparent mounting public frustration and anger. According to a new investigation from Fox News, a coalition of armed opposition groups has emerged as a significant security threat in the predominantly Sunni southeastern provinces of Sestan and Baluchistan and neighboring Kerman. The coalition, known as the People's Fighters Front, has claimed responsibility for at least six attacks against government forces in recent weeks. On October 7th, militants attacked a police headquarters in the city of Jalek using explosives, rocket-propelled grenades, and gunfire. The following day, additional attacks targeted a police patrol near Nusratabad and an army convoy near Nikshar, killing two members of Iran's security forces. Earlier this month, insurgents ambushed a three-vehicle police patrol, killing two officers and wounding another. And on October 14th, a female commander in Iran's besieged paramilitary organization was shot and killed. A police officer was shot and killed by a police officer in a separate attack that same day, and authorities have confirmed both killings, although the identities of the attackers remain unclear. According to the Human Rights Activist News Agency, at least 63 armed incidents were recorded across southeastern Iran between the 31st of March and the 10th of October. Those confrontations left at least 94 people dead, according to local and unofficial reporting. That figure includes, government security personnel, militants, and civilians. And the pace of the violence is reportedly accelerating. 18 incidents occurred during the final 18 days of the reporting period. That's more than in any previous full month. Conflict monitoring organization ACLED also reports that armed confrontations in Sistan and Baluchistan have already reached their highest annual level in at least a decade. And analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies have been closely tracking this. FDD's Long War Journal documented five attacks claimed by the People's Fighters Front during just the first eight days of October, including ambushes, roadside bombings, and assaults on government security installations. FDD's reporting also details how militants have increasingly targeted members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, and local police forces while attempting to coordinate their operations across the region. The People's Fighters Front was established in December of last year, bringing together four armed Baluch organizations, including Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni Islamist militant group with a long history of attacks against Iranian security forces. The coalition claims that its objective is no longer simply defending the interests of the Baluch minority. Instead, its leaders are calling for the overthrow of Iran's clerical government and presenting their campaign as part of a broader struggle on behalf of the Iranian people. That message does come with complications. Some of these organizations have histories of Islamist militancy, and many Iranians remain deeply suspicious of their intentions, particularly concerns about religious extremism and possible separatist ambitions. The region itself has been a source of unrest for decades. Sistan and Baluchistan borders Pakistan and Afghanistan and is home to a large population of Sunni Muslims in a country dominated by Shiite clerics. Iran's military has suffered significant damage during the war with the US and Israel. Its economy is under extraordinary pressure, inflation has surged, and security forces are already stretched thin. The Iranian government has been able to maintain order across the country. Now, the regime must devote additional personnel and resources to confronting armed militants in its southeastern provinces. There's also reporting that Iran has used personnel associated with the Fetimiyoun, an Afghan Shiite militia historically controlled by the Revolutionary Guard, in security operations in that region. The extent of those deployments remains disputed. Iranian authorities have previously accused Israel and the United States of being a part of the Islamic State. and the U.S. of supporting armed opposition groups, but so far, investigators have not established whether the People's Fighters Front is receiving outside financial, military, or intelligence assistance. The militants remain concentrated in the southeast, and there's little evidence that they currently possess the military capabilities needed to capture major cities or challenge Iran's armed forces, but they don't necessarily have to. An insurgency capable of repeatedly killing security personnel, disrupting government operations, and forcing the regime to divert military resources can weaken Iran without ever controlling substantial territory. And the danger for Iran's leadership is that the fighting could intensify, just as the country faces another round of American and Israeli military operations. For years, Tehran has invested enormous resources, supporting militant organizations and proxies throughout the Middle East, using them to threaten and destabilize adversaries far beyond Iran's borders. Now, well, now the Iranian government is confronting an increasingly organized armed challenge inside its own borders. All right, coming up next, British police re-arrest two men suspected of helping Iranian intelligence with a plot targeting an airbase used by American bombers to strike Iran. And a new reporting indicates that Elon Musk supposedly, personally ordered the Starlink restrictions that disrupted Ukrainian military operations. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a very important message about watching out for, safeguarding, and protecting your family's future. Now, it's not a pleasant thought, but it's an important one. If you're the provider for your family, what happens if you're no longer around? Look, things happen. Life can change quickly. You know that. You need to ensure that you can provide for your family, even when you're gone. And that's why I want to talk to you about Ethos Life and Insurance. That's Ethos, E-T-H-O-S. What I like about Ethos is how simple they make the whole process. Everything's done 100% online. You can get a quote in seconds, apply in minutes, and potentially get same-day coverage. There's no medical exam. You just answer a few simple health questions online. Ethos offers coverage amounts up to $3 million, and some policies are as low as $30 a month. Now, they also have a 4.8 out of 5 star rating on Trustpilot with over 4,000 reviews. Take 10 minutes to check out Ethos.com. 10 minutes to get covered today with life insurance through Ethos. Get your free quote at Ethos.com slash PDB. That's Ethos, E-T-H-O-S, Ethos.com slash PDB. Application times and rates may vary. The Trustpilot rating is as of 8-1-2026. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message for everyone who loves gardening or working in the yard and loves houseplants, everything green. I want to tell you about Trees.com. Now, you may know them as fast-growing trees, but they're not just trees, but now they're known simply as Trees.com. It's the same trusted online nursery, but with a much simpler name. How about that? Trees.com is America's largest and most trusted online nursery with thousands of trees and plants for every yard and home. Trees.com makes the whole process of shopping for trees and plants and shrubs and bushes incredibly easy. Look, instead of spending hours driving from nursery to nursery, you know what I'm talking about there, I can simply shop from home and have healthy, expertly grown plants delivered right to my door. Everything arrives in addition, ready to plant, and it's backed by their Alive and Thrive guarantee. If you've got questions, well, no worries. Their plant experts are there to help you choose the right plants, and this is important, provide guidance on how to care for them. So if you're confident every step of the way right now they've got great deals on planting essentials with up to half off of select plants and listeners to the pdb get 20 off their purchase when using the code pdb at checkout that's an additional 20 off at trees.com using code pdb at checkout now it's the perfect time to plant seriously get growing use code pdb to save today offer valid for a limited time terms and conditions may apply welcome back to the pdb the investigation outside raf fairford has taken another turn and the suspected connection to tehran is coming further into focus two men previously released on bail are back in british custody on suspicion of assisting iranian intelligence potentially in a plot against the base raf fairford in southwestern england had been used by american b1 bombers to carry out strikes against iranians now one of the suspects arrested or re-arrested is a 24 year old british national who was initially arrested outside fairford the other is a 25 year old british iranian dual national previously arrested in london both were re-arrested on tuesday the investigation began in the early hours of september 27th when police detained five british men outside the airbase two more arrests followed eventually all seven were released on bail the american b1 bombers left fairford shortly after those first arrests now figures close to the investigation have previously indicated that police were examining a possible attempted iranian proxy attack potentially involving people who didn't know who was ultimately directing them officers reported finding no explosives in the vans near fairford during the initial arrest they did however find what they described as quote a quantity of petrol now what that gas was intended for a third of the people who were in the vans were found to have been in the vans the authorities still haven't publicly explained nor have they laid out precisely what actions the suspects allegedly planned the five men detained outside the base were initially arrested under the explosives act and all seven were charged under the terrorism act now the two re-arrests fall under the national security act with police explicitly investigating suspected assistance to iranian intelligence as for who may have been behind the suspected activity britain's counterterrorism policing chief assistant commissioner lawrence taylor who is not the same lawrence taylor who was one of the new york giants greatest players ever said quote this is very much a live investigation and our evidence gathering continues we consider it highly likely that there is iranian state involvement end quote british prime minister andy burnham had already described iranian involvement as quote highly likely and that brings us back to the warning from mi5 last week the agency's director general sir ken mcallum said it's iran-linked operations had led to more than 50 arrests in the united kingdom over the previous year he also described a quote major shift toward tehran threatening british military sites the iranian regime of course has consistently denied responsibility for suspected operations in the uk but those denials have not changed the assessment that taylor laid out on tuesday british counterterrorism police still consider iranian state involvement highly likely taylor acknowledged that the public still doesn't have the full picture saying quote we know the public have unanswered questions i want to be as transparent as possible and when we are in the position to share more we will end quote he also cautioned that national security investigations take time to progress the other five men well they remain out on bail all right turning now to ukraine where an unexpected disruption to a critical american military communication system has triggered questions at the highest levels of government when ukraine's military starlink service was restricted last week kiev wanted to know well who was responsible now the wall street journal reports that elon musk reportedly supposedly personally ordered the throttling that left ukrainian attack drones and air defense interceptors without their key communication support or at least the most effective version of that key communication support in an exclusive report the journal identifies musk as the person who directed the restrictions now if you think it odd that musk would independently make that decision without consulting the white house and or the pentagon well you'd be correct the question is did he consult the trump administration before making that call and that's where the accounts differ first let's walk through what changed for ukrainian forces on the 14th of october a cap on the speeds at which ukrainian equipment could stay connected to the satellite network's military grade service were put in place that's according to u.s officials and people familiar with the matter who spoke to the journal as i've discussed here on the pdb ukrainian forces rely on starlink both to strike russian positions and to intercept incoming attacks the restrictions affected drones carrying out both missions a military analyst at the carnegie endowment for international peace explained the problem this way quote ukrainian forces continue to be throttled in their ability to employ strike drones and interceptor drones to 99 miles per hour the current connection is below 80 miles per hour ukrainian officials told the journal that the restrictions let russian missiles slip past their defenses the report doesn't establish how many attacks were affected or whether a lost connection was the decisive factor in any particular interception failure or resulting casualties but zelensky's warning was blunt ukrainians could die if unrestricted service wasn't restored those public complaints reached a white house that was according to the white house anyway also trying to figure out what had happened the journal reports widespread confusion inside the trump administration i mean about this issue not just in general followed by an informal investigation into who had ordered the slowdown so what had musk discussed with the president two people familiar with the matter told the journal that musk and trump spoke by phone about the starlink decision after the slowdown became public while trump was campaigning last week one of those people said they had also discussed the issue before the restrictions took effect now some u.s officials they told the journal that musk acted unilaterally on his own and that the president did not specifically order any retaliation against ukraine that's parsing some words musk meanwhile was pointing toward washington hours after the slowdown became public he wrote on x quote any limits on speed or usage are decided by the u.s military and ultimately the president but that was not the account coming from the president trump told reporters he didn't know who was responsible quote but i would like to find out and quote ah if only he could find out he's like oj he just wants to get to the bottom of who done it on wednesday secretary of state marco rubio said the administration had made no request to throttle starlink so the journal identifies musk as the person who supposedly gave the directive without clearing up the question of did he or didn't he consult with the white house both musk and trump have criticized ukraine's strikes on russian refineries leading the officials who spoke with the journal to suspect the restrictions were retaliation trump has been pressing to lower american diesel prices ahead of november's midterm elections and he blames ukraine's strikes on russian refineries for contributing to elevated prices officials in kiev say well they say they're just trying to get the full picture still ukraine's top diplomat in washington said key was quote waiting for the official response from contacts with the pentagon and spacex at the leader's level to understand what has happened and whether the connection has been restored or will be restored end quote the administration meanwhile was drawing a distinction between american military assistance and decisions made by the company providing the service of course of course there would just be no connection there secretary of defense pete eggseth said quote we haven't pulled anything back end quote still given the incredibly complex and deep liaison intelligence sharing and military relationships that exist between the u.s and ukraine one could be forgiven for thinking that it's unlikely that a private citizen in this case musk would decide on his own to restrict the most important communication system used by the ukrainian military the phrase plausible deniability does come to mind all right coming up in the back of the brief vladimir putin frees an imprisoned american as trump's envoy arrives in russia for peace negotiations more on that when we come back hey mike baker here with a pro tip for everybody out there who loves delicious food have you heard of the company gold belly well gold belly ships america's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants straight to your door anywhere in the usa it's that easy i've ordered all sorts of food from gold belly ribs pulled pork mcclune's lobster rolls from maine cupcakes other desserts everything shows up fast perfectly packed and absolutely delicious it really is incredibly simple ordering is very easy i've ordered from gold belly to feed folks at barbecues game nights and poker evenings at the compound the food's fantastic everybody's happy bob's your uncle gold belly ships iconic chicago deep dish pizza from lou malnati's new york cheesecake from junior's gotta give that a try texas barbecue and meals from chefs like aina garden and jose andres so if you're looking for that perfect gift or do you want to impress your friends and family with an epic meal the next time you host and question do go to goldbelly.com and get 20 off your first order with promo code pdb once again that's goldbelly.com code PDB for 20% off your first order. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you may have noticed that the U.S. midterm elections are heating up. Yes, ever so slightly. Congressional control, possibly Senate control, and President Trump's agenda are all basically on the ballot and up for grabs. Every new poll and every new article has the potential to shift the odds. And here's the thing. CalShi, America's number one prediction market platform, lets you trade those predictions in a live market. Now, one race worth watching in the midterms is Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing Republican Mike Rogers for an open Senate seat. Right now on CalShi, El-Sayed is trading at 68% to win, while Rogers is sitting at 32%. But the polls actually show a much closer contest, with the candidates separated by only a few points. So CalShi traders are pricing their chances of winning much differently. And with Election Day coming up to November 3rd, those numbers could continue to move. You can follow Michigan and other major races across the country on CalShi. On CalShi, you're trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house. And as the probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position. Download CalShi. Use code PDB to get $25 when you trade $25. That's CalShi. K-A-L-S-H-I. Mandatory disclaimer. Trade what's next. 18 years and older only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CalShi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values, and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see calshi.com slash regulatory. In today's back of the brief, Russia has released a 74-year-old American teacher who spent more than four years in a Russian prison following a personal appeal from President Trump to Vladimir Putin. The release of Stephen Hubbard came Wednesday, as Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Putin in St. Petersburg for another round of negotiations aimed at ending Putin's war in Ukraine. Witkoff praised Putin following the release of Hubbard, calling Putin a humanitarian. Witkoff actually appeared to be serious, as the rest of the room erupted into laughter. Okay, that's not true. Nobody burst out laughing. You don't want to upset a humanitarian like Putin. You don't know what could happen. Hubbard, schoolteacher from Michigan, had been living in Ukraine since 2014. He was captured by Russian forces in the eastern city of Izyum in April of 2022, shortly after the humanitarian Putin launched his full-scale invasion. Russian authorities accused Hubbard of joining a Ukrainian territorial defense unit and fighting against Russian troops. Hubbard denied the allegations, and his family described him as a pacifist who had never taken up arms. He was sentenced to six years and ten months in prison. The U.S. government subsequently designated him as wrongfully detained. Now, after more than four years in Russian custody, Hubbard is returning home. President Trump says he personally requested the release during discussions with Putin, and that Washington made no concessions in exchange, noting that there was no prisoner swap. The White House is presenting the release as a diplomatic success, rather than Putin playing his card smartly, as Washington continues to cozy up to the Kremlin. Now, the announcement comes as Washington and Moscow are discussing another round of peace negotiations. According to some reports, there's an outside chance that potential talks, possibly planned for November, could also, possibly, directly involve Ukraine. As for what's happening on the battlefield with Putin the humanitarian's invasion, according to Ukrainian authorities, Russian attacks killed at least nine people and wounded another 45 across the country over the past day, as Moscow continued targeting cities and energy infrastructure, with the stated goal of driving urban populations out of the cities as winter approaches. And on Monday, a Russian drone struck a public park in the Kharkiv region, killing six civilians, including two young girls. One of the victims was 14 months old. Another 15 people were wounded, including seven children. Perhaps U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff could choose his words and direct his praise more judiciously. Putin's release of Hubbard, as welcome as it is, was a strategic self-serving act designed to further influence the White House into accepting Russian positions and demands for ending their war against Ukraine. As you would expect from a long-time KGB officer, he's effectively reading the room and acting accordingly. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, the 22nd of October. Now, if you have any questions or comments, reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.