October 20th, 2026: Trump–Zelensky Rift Deepens & Iran Tightens Hold Over Hormuz

It's Tuesday, the 20th of October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, attention between Washington and Kiev continues to rise. As President Zelensky accuses the U.S. of temporarily interrupting critical intelligence sharing. The Trump administration denies the allegation, while President Trump escalates his criticism of Ukraine's handling of the war. Well, they were invaded, so there's that. Later in the show, in speaking of who's responsible for rising fuel prices, Iran is tightening its grip on the strait of Khormuz with ships coming under attack and some 6,000 sailors stranded on the waterway. The Iranian regime is also reviving demands that President Trump has previously rejected. Plus, Russian President Vladimir Putin is proposing talks with President Trump and China's Xi Jinping to end the war in Ukraine, while how magnanimous of him, while saying that Ukraine does not need a seat at the negotiating table. Well, now there's a thought. Let's make a deal with America's two main adversaries without the invaded country being involved. It seems logical. I mean, well, it seems logical from Putin and Xi Jinping's perspective, and in today's back of the brief President Trump backs Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for another term warning that America would be left to "finished the war against Iran alone" if voters replace him. But will Trump's endorsement help Netanyahu secure the support he needs to stay in power? But first today's PDB spotlight. Russia has launched another major assault on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and President Zelensky says his country once again received no advance warning from Western intelligence partners. The latest attack comes as relations between Washington and Kiev continue to deteriorate, with the two governments now openly contradicting each other, over intelligence sharing, military communications, and Ukraine strikes against Russian energy facilities. According to the Associated Press, Russian forces targeted Ukraine early Monday with ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, striking 28 substations and other critical energy facilities. More than half a million people were left without electricity, heat, or running water. Russia also fired 16 ballistic missiles at Kiev and the surrounding region. Ukrainian officials say they received no warning ahead of the first wave of attacks, while intelligence about a second wave arrived too late to activate air raid sirens. Now that raises serious concerns for Kiev, which has relied heavily on American intelligence to detect incoming Russian ballistic missiles. But Washington disputes the notion that the U.S. is intentionally withholding critical intelligence. During an interview on Sunday, the Ukrainian president claimed U.S. intelligence sharing had been interrupted before subsequently being restored. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, flatly rejected that claim Monday, telling reporters in Uzbekistan, "I don't know where he's getting these things or why he's saying these things to the press." Rubio insisted there had been no interruption or pause in intelligence sharing and said Zelensky should instead focus his intention on diplomacy. But Rubio also acknowledged that, oh, here we go, a software problem had effected Ukraine's early warning system several nights earlier, saying U.S. European command was investigating. However, he said he didn't know what had happened during Monday's attack. And intelligence sharing isn't the only point of contention. As we discussed on Friday's PDB, Ukraine has also been dealing with restrictions on its satellite communications and the dispute over who imposed them has only grown more contentious. Zelensky says speed restrictions remain in place on satellite terminals used by Ukrainian drones disrupting operations along the front lines. Last week, Reuters reported that an order to restrict the service originated inside the White House, citing American and Western officials. But Rubio has denied that account, insisting nobody at the White House ordered to slow down. He acknowledged the disruption occurred, saying it just quote, "sort of happened." Oh, well, it just sort of happened, but maintained that service had been restored. Rubio also drew a distinction between SpaceX's commercial star-linked network and its military-grade star-shield system, saying Ukraine doesn't currently have access to star-shield. Now, that complicates the picture even further, given that previous reporting identified star-shield as the affected service, and the conflicting explanations have now prompted Republican lawmakers, including Congressman Mike Turner and Senator Kevin Kramer, to call for a congressional investigation. Meanwhile, President Trump is escalating his criticism of Zelensky while defending his decision to waive new sanctions on Russia and ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports in a bid to bring down fuel prices. Trump argues that additional pressure on Moscow could drive Vladimir Putin away from peace negotiations, so what? Putin has not been anywhere near peace negotiations. How are you going to drive him further away? He shows no signs of backing away from his maximalist demands, and continues to balance Ukraine ahead of the approaching winter. Trump also doubled down on those accusations Sunday in a lengthy truth social screed, saying Zelensky is worsening global fuel shortages by targeting Russian oil refineries. Trump tore into Zelensky, accusing the Ukrainian leader of not caring about the economic consequences of attacks, inclaiming he quote doesn't want to end this war and probably never did end quote. He added that in his view, Zelensky's refusal to make a deal with Putin in past years had left Ukraine quote in shambles. Secretary Rubio, although using more diplomatic language, echoed Trump's sentiments and remarks over the weekend, urging Zelensky to bring an end to the war, you know, he is the invaded party, while also urging Russia to do the same. Oh, well, that's good. Rubio also raised another concern, saying recent Ukrainian attacks in the Black Sea have struck vessels carrying American-owned oil. He emphasized that he doesn't believe Ukraine deliberately targeted those American interests, but called them frustrating incidents that are exasperating the global energy crisis. Zelensky, meanwhile, insists Ukraine has supported every effort to negotiate a ceasefire, accusing Russia of prolonging the conflict and treating peace negotiations as a quote parody, while Moscow continues its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as winter approaches. All of this, of course, well, here's a statement of the obvious, leaves Zelensky in his government in an increasingly difficult position. Russia continues, attacking Ukraine's power grid, Washington is pressing Zelensky to halt strikes against Russian energy targets, and accept a negotiated settlement, all while questions mount over the reliability of the intelligence and communication support that Ukraine needs to defend itself. Zelensky, the immediate challenge is, of course, protecting Ukrainian cities from continuous waves of Russian attacks, while the continuous waves of verbal attacks from President Trump aren't helping. The White House appears to have picked a side, and unfortunately for Ukraine, that appears to be Putin's side. Now, it's not unreasonable to assess that Trump's overall frustration with rising fuel prices, stemming from the U.S. conflict with Iran, has left him looking for a scapegoat, and since he doesn't seem inclined to blame Moscow for Putin's war, he seems increasingly comfortable blaming Ukraine for being invaded, refusing to give into Putin's demands and attacking Russia's primary means of funding the Kremlin's war machine. Whether or not the White House, as Roy does reported, did withhold intelligence from Kiev, and whether the U.S. government disrupted Starlinker's Star Shield service, it does appear that Trump believes the way to end Putin's invasion is to pursue a policy of appeasement towards the Kremlin. That sound you hear in the distance is Putin, padding himself on the back. All right, coming up next, Iran warns that it has "unfinished jobs" as attacks mount in the strait of Hormuz, and Putin is proposing trilateral talks with President Trump and China's Xi Jinping to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Well, that's not too transparent. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here, host to the PDB podcast and longtime business owner, and I want to take just a moment to talk to all of you business owners out there. Now, think about the last time you called a business, and nobody picked up the phone. So what did you do? Well, likely, I tell you what you did, you called the next one on the list, right? 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Meanwhile, locals are searching the waterway for a booty after a cargo ship sunk while transiting the straighten. That's the first time I've ever used the word "booty" on the PDB. The Sankan vessel was traveling from Karachi, Pakistan to the United Arab Emirates when it reportedly struck a mine last Wednesday, according to a body and state television. All 21 crew members escaped without injuries, but approximately 2,500 containers went down with the ship. Regime officials have ordered fishermen and others to leave the cargo alone, declaring it to be "state booty." Now, in the shipping lanes, the Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to issue their now-standard warning, ships crossing without its permission risk being attacked. The IRGC says that threat also applies to vessels with their tracking transponders switched off. Now many recent attacks have occurred near Oman's coast, among a route that Tehran considers unauthorized. According to the Financial Times, Iran has attacked at least 2 dozen container ships in roughly 2 weeks, using drones, naval mines, and rocket-propelled grenades fired from small boats. Those attacks continued through this weekend. On Saturday, the IRGC claimed strikes on two oil tankers, including a super tanker carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil. On Sunday, a commercial vessel was struck by an RPG fired from a small boat, approximately 75 miles northeast of the Saudi port of Jubeil. The third tanker was reportedly struck later that day. The precise number of ships hit by mines or direct IRGC fire remains disputed, but the danger has been serious enough that the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization is advising ships to stay put until their safety can be guaranteed. He told Fox News that roughly 6,000 sailors remained trapped under a "double blockade," one in "seafarers" have continued to perish in these attacks. As of 9 October, the International Maritime Organization had confirmed 100 maritime incidents across the region, with 24 sailors killed since fighting began in late February. The disruption is also choking traffic through a vital route for Gulf oil and natural gas exports. UK Maritime Authorities recorded just 254 transits during the week ending the 14th of October, it's approximately 70 percent below normal pre-conflict levels. And Brent Crude was trading close to $108 a barrel by Monday morning. Now the Iranian regime says that it could reopen the passage within days, if Washington accepts its September ceasefire proposal. Under that seven-day Iranian regime plan, the U.S. would release billions of dollars and frozen Iranian assets, wave sanctions on Iranian oil, and lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. The strait would reopen only on the final day of that seven-day plan. In other words, the U.S. would surrender substantial economic leverage before the regime delivered safe passage through the waterway. Now Trump rejected that proposal when it was first presented, and according to the Wall Street Journal, American officials said he doubted Iran would honor its commitments. Well, there you go. There's been no indication that Washington will accept the renewed offer. The Iranian Foreign Minister of Osir Rajjip is accompanying that offer with a warning against renewed American strikes. In a message posted to X, he wrote, "Last time you wanted to "finish the job" Iran emerged even stronger. But be careful, we have unfinished jobs too." So there we also have unfinished jobs. Trump has insisted that Iran's nuclear stockpile must be addressed before he backs away from the threat of renewed strikes. Now Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has offered to mediate, well, that's because Russia's all about peacemaking, isn't it? Even traveling to Iran on Monday with the proposal that Moscow is seeking to take possession of Iran's highly enriched uranium. Right. I want to turn back to the war in Ukraine, where Russian President Putin is proposing trilateral talks with President Trump and China's Xi Jinping to discuss ending Putin's war. And that might sound like a diplomatic opening until you realize that Putin does not want Ukraine at the table. His idea, apparently, is just to discuss carving up Ukraine with Trump and Xi Jinping no invite for Kiev. An exclusive report from the Wall Street Journal reveals that Putin raised the proposal during his October 9th phone call with President Trump. A former Russian intelligence officer briefed on that conversation, told the journal that Moscow wants the leaders to meet next month in China, and the Kremlin already has a "setting in mind" that would be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, currently scheduled for the 18th and 19th of November in Shenzhen. Now Russian officials have approached Beijing through diplomatic channels, and Chinese officials have indicated that they wouldn't object if Trump agrees. Reportedly, President Trump is not committed to the meeting. A senior American official told the journal that Trump could be receptive, given his determination to negotiate an end to the war, and given his apparent belief that Putin makes a better negotiating partner than Zelensky. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged Monday that discussions were underway, speaking to reporters he said, quote, "I think there's been talks of a meeting," but added that he didn't believe anything had been finalized. The Kremlin also says the meeting and its agenda remain unresolved. Your key, though, the proposal, as you might suspect, already raises a serious problem, while the lack of an invite. Ukraine's foreign minister rejected the idea Monday, warning that a summit without his government would quote "encourage" Putin to continue his war. As he put it, quote, "as long as Putin continues this terror, there should be no place for him at any table," end quote. And Ukraine wouldn't be the only one left out. European leaders would also be absent, which suits Moscow's purposes, of course. The journal reports that the Kremlin sees Europe as its main obstacle to securing the outcome that it wants in Ukraine. So the guest list is a course part of Putin's strategy. The format would give him something he has sought since entering the Kremlin in 2000, and that would be a place alongside the world's dominant powers. The former Russian intelligence officer, quoted earlier, says Putin has something resembling a "second yalta conference" in mind, and for a little context that original conference took place back in February of 1945, I remember it well. President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, discussed Europe's post-war future, helping shape the settlement that preceded its Cold War division. The source says Putin sees talks with Trump and Xi as a chance to pursue a similar arrangement today, with the major powers dividing the world into spheres of influence. Oh, good. Putin has proposed similar meetings in the past, and now, with Washington easing economic pressure on Moscow, while increasingly blaming Zelensky for everything from the price of fuel to the box office failure of Tom Cruise's latest movie, Putin undoubtedly sees an opening to push for negotiations on his preferred terms. But securing Trump's participation is only part of the equation. Xi also has to weigh what hosting this meeting would mean for China, bringing the American and Russian presidents together on Chinese soil, would give Beijing a chance to present itself as a major diplomatic power broker. From Xi's perspective, that's an opportunity, but it does come with complications. Chinese officials reportedly worry that Ukraine negotiations could overshadow APEC the summit, which they want to use to showcase China's influence across the Asia-Pacific region. All right, coming up in the back of the brief President Trump weighs in on Israel's election with a warning about the unfinished fight against Iran. We'll look at why he says Netanyahu is the partner that America needs and the political hurdles that his ally faces to remain in power. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. This episode of the President's Daily Brief is brought to you by our friends at Wild Grain. Have you heard about Wild Grain? Great company. Let me tell you about them. Wild Grain works with small independent bakeries to make artisanal goods with simple, real ingredients, delivering them straight to your door perfectly frozen and ready to bake. 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In a message posted to Truth Social on Sunday, Trump gave Netanyahu and his light-cood party, quote, complete and total endorsement ahead of Israel's October 27th elections. Now this was more than a president putting in a good word for an ally. Trump also told Israeli voters what he believes could happen if they replace him. Quote, "If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than BB, America will have to do this work ourselves and I'm not inclined to do so." Now the work he's referring to is the confrontation with Iran. In the same message, in somewhat of a contradiction, Trump warned that unless Tehran changes its behavior, quote, "We will soon finish the job," and quote, "I mean, unless he's not inclined to do so." So there are two audiences here. The Iranian regime is being told that America is prepared to act again while Israeli voters are being told that Trump wants Netanyahu beside him if that becomes necessary. And that's notable because the two leaders have not always agreed on how best to proceed with this conflict. But Trump has made clear who he wants leading Israel. He called Netanyahu a "great warrior and a quote partner for peace," praising his ability to withstand political opposition, military conflict, and international scrutiny. Trump proved, quote, "normal men or women in such situations would have wilted under the pressure, but BB did not wilt. He actually got stronger," end quote. He also made clear what America expects from its ally. He said, quote, "This is the kind of partner that the U.S. is demanding of Israel, a country for which it has done so much," end quote. Netanyahu thanked Trump on expert support and their joint work, adding, "Together we will complete the mission." It's worth noting that Israelis do not directly elect their Prime Minister. They vote for party lists competing for seats in the Knesset. That's Israel's 120-member parliament. Israelis are distributed proportionally among parties, receiving at least 3.25% of the national vote. So you can think of the Knesset as Israel's equivalent of Congress, but with only one chamber. Now imagine the parties in Congress negotiating over who would lead the executive branch. How dysfunctional could that be? That roughly explains the process. Once the votes are counted, Israel's president, Isaac Herzog, consults with party representatives and assigns a Knesset member the task of forming a government, generally choosing whoever appears best positioned to assemble enough support. The party selects then has to persuade other parties to join a coalition that you're following me on that list, essentially an alliance that agrees to govern together. That proposed government then goes before the Knesset for a vote of confidence. Which brings us to Netanyahu's target. That would be 61 seats, a majority. A government can technically win that initial confidence vote with fewer supporters if they outnumber those opposed, but 61 is the central goal. Recent projections indicate just how difficult this process could be for Netanyahu. Likud is forecast to win roughly 18-22 seats, including the other right-wing and religious parties aligned with Netanyahu. His block is projected to hold approximately 49-51 seats. That leaves it roughly 10-12 seats short of a majority. So even if Likud finishes first, Netanyahu could still like the partners he needs to govern. Post-election negotiations could change those alliances, of course, but smaller parties could ultimately determine whether he stays in office. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday the 20th of October. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.