It's Thursday, the first of October. Look at that brand-new month. Hmm, can Christmas tunes be far away? I don't think so. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage, and still on the road, still in my posh digs, somewhere in London. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, the diplomatic channel with Iran reportedly remains open, with cutter, carrying messages between both sides, even as the US rolls out another round of sanctions. I know. It's like Groundhog Day, but with a repressive Iranian regime. If Paxitani Phil sees the shadow, we get six more weeks of optimistic talk about some type of negotiations that might be underway. Later in the show, US forces have left Iraq after more than two decades, raising new questions about whether Iran-backed militias or ISIS could exploit the security vacuum. Well, let me clear up that mystery. Yes, of course, Iran-backed militias and ISIS will exploit that security vacuum. I am sorry to spoil the suspense. Plus, Pakistan says it will defend Saudi Arabia against the Houthis by "whatever means are available," raising the prospect that Islamabad could be drawn directly into the fight. And in today's back of the brief, Britain says a Beijing Research Institute is secretly serving as a front for Chinese intelligence. Oh, say it ain't so. And for that, I declared today's back of the brief the winner of this week's Possibly This Month's PDB Statement of the Obvious Award. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Despite President Trump publicly rejecting Iran's latest peace proposal, some folks are saying that the diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran is still open. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arajji has now received, reportedly, formal US feedback on Tehran's seven-day trust-building plan, is that what they're calling it, through Qatari mediators. And that is about as moronic a name for what you might call a plan between the US and Iranian regimes as you could conjure up a seven-day trust-building plan. According to Reuters, Arajji received the response in Doha on Tuesday and was expected to take it back to Tehran for discussions with Iran's leadership, whomever that might be. The exact contents of the American response have not been made public, but we do know something important about where the talks stand, or supposedly stand. The main disagreement is reportedly over sequencing. In other words, the two sides may not be arguing over every component of the plan, so much as the order in which those steps would happen. Iran wants to know what he gets and when. Washington wants to know what the regime is prepared to do first. Iran's proposal calls for a seven-day trust-building period, I just can't say that often enough, designed to move both sides back toward an expanded version of the Memorandum of Understanding, reached in June. Well, that worked out well, that earlier framework briefly reduced hostilities and included provisions involving the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program, although that particular provision was simply, supposedly, to say that at some point, both sides would talk about Iran's nuclear program. The latest Iranian proposal again centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restoring normal maritime traffic if certain conditions are met. Tehran has also been seeking relief from the US naval blockade, access to frozen Iranian funds, and waivers that would allow some oil sales to resume. President Trump publicly rejected those terms last week, but that was publicly. Apparently, the rejection did not reportedly end the talks. Cutter kept moving messages between Washington and Tehran, and the US ultimately sent Iran a formal response. So the public answer to Tehran's original offer was no, but behind the scenes the negotiations kept moving. Iran wants economic relief before giving up some of the leverage that it still has, particularly, of course, around the waterway. Washington wants Iran to take concrete steps first, especially on the nuclear side before easing the existing pressure. For now, there is still no agreement. And while that effort is moving through Cutter, Washington is doing something else at the same time. They're increasing the pressure on the regime. The Treasury Department announced another round of sanctions Tuesday, targeting 10 individuals and entities in Iran, Hong Kong, and Pakistan, accused of helping Iran procure weapons and military components. But it does make you wonder, if sanctions work, then they certainly appear to work when combined with actual consequences. Why not just unleash them all at once? The sanctions are part of what the administration calls Operation Economic Outcast to campaign designed to cut Iran off from the financial and commercial networks that keep its military supplied. US officials say the latest targets help Tehran's defense ministry obtain components used in weapons programs, including missiles and drones. The goal is, of course, to make it harder and more expensive for the regime to replace what it's lost over the course of this war. And the new sanctions are landing at a difficult time for the Iranian regime and their economy. The reall fell to a new record low this week, with more than two and a half million realls trading for one US dollar. Iran's economy was already under heavy sanctions and strained before the war, but the combination of new sanctions, the US naval blockade and disruption to oil exports has driven that pressure even higher. So the diplomatic channel supposedly remains open, with Qatar carrying messages back and forth, and both sides still possibly working through the terms of some form of an agreement. But at the same time, the US is continuing to increase the economic pressure on Iran, and of course hasn't taken future military action off the table. The key question in all of this remains, who in Iran is actually calling the shots? Without knowing who has ultimate authority within the regime, it is almost impossible for the US to determine how this will all end up, which, after all, maybe why the regime hasn't been clear about who is, in fact, in charge. All right, coming up next, US forces leave Iraq after more than two decades, and Pakistan warns that it could enter the fight against the Houthis. That could be diplomatic speak for, but we won't. I'll be right back. Mike Baker here, with a word about personal health and weight loss. 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Once again, that's promo code PDB at TakeLean.com. Welcome back to the PDB. After more than two decades of American military involvement in Iraq, the final US troops are now out. The Pentagon announced Wednesday that the withdrawal is complete, ending the military mission that began with the 2003 invasion resumed in 2014 to fight ISIS and continued in different forms ever since. The last American forces departed from Iraq's Kurdish region, now to an agreement reached between Washington and Baghdad back in 2024. Now this withdrawal timetable predates the current US administration. The agreement to end the US military presence was negotiated under the Biden administration. But geopolitics really doesn't care who signed the agreement. The withdrawal is happening now in the middle of a war with Iran, and of course that makes the timing notable and concerning. Washington is trying to put maximum pressure on Iran economically, diplomatically and militarily. At the same time, American troops are leaving a country where Iran has spent years building influence through allied political factions and armed Shi'i militias. As you might imagine, Iran is treating the withdrawal as a victory. Naturally, the regime and its allies have portrayed the American departure as another success for what Iran calls its axis of resistance. Supporters of Iran-backed militias inside Iraq have also celebrated the exit, some with anti-American rallies and chants. I mean, frankly, is it, is it even an anti-American rally if you don't have chance, one goes with the other? The Iraqi government says its own security forces are now capable of defending the country, and Washington says military cooperation is not disappearing entirely. The US plans to continue providing training and intelligence support, even though the troops have gone. Still, the obvious concern is what happens to the space that the Americans leave behind. Iran-backed militias already hold significant power inside Iraq, both politically and militarily. And some of those groups have resisted pressure to disarm, and the fear is that the disappearance of US forces removes one more obstacle to their expanding influence. And then, of course, well, there's ISIS. The group is nowhere near as powerful as it was a decade ago, and Iraqi security forces are in a very different position today than they were in 2014. but ISIS has not.
disappeared. Sleeper cells and remnants remain active, and there are concerns that any weakening of intelligence, surveillance, or counterterrorism capabilities could create room for the organization to rebuild. And Iraq has been through that before. American troops withdrew in 2011, three years later, ISIS swept the cross-large parts of Iraq, captured Mosul, and forced the US back into the country. But, hey, what are the chances that history repeats itself? Ah, that does make me sound rather cynical, doesn't it? To be fair, maybe history doesn't repeat itself. But it does explain why some Iraqi and Kurdish officials remain uneasy about the withdrawal. The larger point here is that the withdrawal was planned years ago. Obviously, at that point, no one could predict the current Iran conflict. The question now is whether Washington is leaving behind a stable Iraqi state capable of filling that space, or whether Iran backed militias, ISIS, or both, will try to fill it instead. As a cynic, well, I know where my money is going in the prediction markets. All right, turning now to the ongoing fight between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, where the Middle East's newest military alliance is getting its first real test. Pakistan's Defense Minister says his nation is prepared to use, quote, "whatever means are available to defend the kingdom." That warning came Tuesday from Islamabad's Kwajah Asif, who described the Iran-backed group as aggressors, and made clear that, quote, "any enemy of Saudi Arabia is an enemy of Pakistan." That should be very clear, end quote. But how far is Pakistan prepared to go, or has it already taken action? Report us, put that question to the Defense Minister during a visit to Rome, asking whether Pakistani forces had participated in recent airstrikes against Iranian operators in Yemen. Now, he declined to answer directly, pointing instead to Pakistan's new trilateral mutual defense pack, with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The three countries signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on the 7th of August. It's a straightforward NATO-style commitment, an attack on one member will be treated as an attack on all three. That is the obligation Asif says Pakistan is prepared to fulfill, quote, "I'm not going into detail, but obviously when I say that we are bound by this arrangement to defend Saudi Arabia, that means whatever means are available at our disposal, they'll be available to Saudi Arabia also," end quote. So Pakistan is leaving the scope of its potential involvement open while being quite explicit about its willingness to help. To understand why Pakistan is making that commitment, look at how the Houthis are expanding the fight. As I've discussed in recent weeks, the Iran-backed group has intensified missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia while extending its control. Along Yemen's Red Sea coast, which reminds me, "I wonder if the U.S. will insist in their negotiations with Iran, if those negotiations are ongoing, that the regime calls a stop to their proxies actions against the Saudis and the Obama and Deb Strait. I mean, given Iran's influence over the Houthis, you would think it would be odd to treat what the Houthis are doing, and Iran's actions has two completely separate matters." Just a thought. Saudi forces recently captured the strategic port city of Mokha and several Red Sea Islands pushing their reach closer to the Obama and Deb Strait. That's significant because roughly 12% of global trade passes through that maritime choke point, which makes what happens there a concern well beyond Saudi Arabia. So, you ask what are the Houthis doing with that expanding reach? While along with allied Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, they've attacked Saudi oil facilities and sought to prevent Saudi tankers from using the strait, that's the aggression that Pakistan is promising to help Saudi Arabia confront. Protecting those facilities and keeping trade routes open matters to the U.S. and its allies, which have a clear interest in preventing Iran-backed groups from dictating who can move through critical international waters. Just days before Osip spoke, the Army Chiefs of Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia met in Riyadh to discuss how to respond to the attacks. Their top diplomats also recently met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, where they discussed implementing the defense pact and coordinating a response to attack targeting Mekha and other sites in the kingdom. "All right, in today's back of the brief, British intelligence says a Beijing Research Institute is secretly operating as a front for China spy agency. What? Targeting sensitive technology and expertise from Western universities and laboratories." "Mmm, or you say laboratory, I say laboratory. Pajama, pajama. Yeah. Apparently, the only people surprised at this news are the academics and researchers working in Western universities and laboratories, which reminds me of that brilliant kids cartoon Dexter's Laboratory. More on that when we come back." "Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I have been a business owner for many years, and I want to take just a moment to talk to all of you small business operators out there. Here's the thing, running a small business. Any small business means dealing with constant unexpected expenses, right? Whether it's upgrading an IT system, repair costs, or managing payroll, there's always something. And you can't afford to let traditional bank red tape slow your momentum. And that's why you need Cardiff, America's favorite small business lender. 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In today's back of the brief, British Intelligence is exposing what it says was a "hidden path" from Western University research directly to Beijing's spy agency with a Chinese Institute funding projects that were actually funded by the Chinese government to support espionage. MI5, Britain's domestic intelligence service, issued its first-ever "espionage alert" on Wednesday. MI5 is publicly identifying and alleged Chinese intelligence front and explaining how it operated. It's part of a broader effort by the British government and its allies to bring the scale of Chinese espionage into public view. So, what exactly has MI5 uncovered? Well, the warning centers on the Beijing-based China General Technology Research Institute, well, that sounds suitably vague. And then you say does it have an acronym? Of course, it does. It's CGTRI. That just rolls off the tongue, which also goes by the name China Academy of General Technology. Again, suitably vague. According to MI5, the Institute concealed its relationship with China's Ministry of State Security, the MSS. While financing research intended to acquire sensitive technology and expertise from Western universities and laboratories. Those projects involved artificial intelligence, covert communications, and other technologies. MI5 says the purpose behind that funding went well beyond academic cooperation, and in fact, is espionage hidden in the guise or veneer of academia. MI5 stated, quote, "the primary purpose is to fund academic research that directly improves MSS or Ministry of State Security technical capability for espionage." Now, how far did that arrangement reach? Well, it's a good question you ask. MI5 says it identified, quote, "more than 100 UK linked academics who contributed to projects secretly, quote, funded by MSS via intermediaries." Now, of course, that doesn't mean that those academics knowingly agreed to help China's spies. The alert did not identify individual researchers or universities and acknowledged that many, likely, quote, engaged with CGTRI and good faith, given the institute's obfuscated links to Chinese intelligence. And, of course, also given how many academics in the West are rather gormless when it comes to the aggressiveness and expansiveness of China's spying efforts. But Britain has made clear what it expects universities to do next. Now that MI5 has exposed the alleged connection, those research relationships need to end. Security Minister Dan Jarvis says the alert, quote, "exposes attempts by Chinese intelligence to covertly benefit from the expertise and research of our academics, undermining our national security." He says he has, quote, written to all university vice-chancellors to ensure they support their staff to end all arrangements with this company. And, quote, "Those who failed as sever university or research ties could also face prosecution the alert warns. Britain's 2023-19.
National Security Law prohibits conduct "that is likely to materially assist a foreign intelligence service." Now former British officials and China experts point to the intensifying competition between the West and Beijing over artificial intelligence, drones, and other technologies, transforming warfare and espionage. The concern, of course, is that expertise developed in Western research institutions could help give Chinese intelligence and advantage in that competition, with researchers potentially unaware of how their work is being used. Britain's closest intelligence partners have been raising related concerns and in fact have been raising those concerns for years. Recently though in June, the Five Eyes partnership, which of course includes the US, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, warned that China was using linked in and other job search platforms to extract secret information from security professionals. That warning focused on people who already had access to sensitive information. This latest warning concerns researchers and academics who may be approached by what appears to be a harmless Chinese research institute offering cooperative work opportunities. And that my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, the first of October, welcome to October. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at
[email protected]. And of course if you like and add free PDB, well no worries, just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. And finally, as they say, a teaser. Don't miss this weekend's edition of the PDB's situation report. The amazing Neil deGrasse Tyson will be joining me to talk artificial intelligence, the weaponization of space, aliens, and his latest book take me to your leader. Now I just hope you can keep up with my big brain. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. [MUSIC]
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