October 14th, 2026: Iran's Oil Exports Have Collapsed to Zero & Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemen

It's Wednesday, the 14th of October. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's oil exports have reportedly collapsed to zero, and an increasingly desperate regime is lashing out with an aggressive wave of attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Later in the show, Saudi Arabia launches a new round of airstrikes on Yemen's capital in its escalating war against the Iran-backed Houthis. Plus, five Russian ballistic missiles strike civilian infrastructure in Kyiv, as President Zelensky says Ukraine received no advance warning from its intelligence partners. And in today's back of the brief, fancy being a posh diplomat at a terrific Mediterranean country, that sounds like a good job, doesn't it? There is a job opening in Greece. Apparently, the position does not require prior experience, but ideally, you do need to be able to refrain from sketchy activity. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Iran's economic situation is becoming increasingly desperate. After months of pressure from the American blockade, new figures indicate that the regime's oil exports have officially fallen to zero, and Tehran's response appears to be a simple one. If Iran is going to be able to get back to normal, then it's going to have to sell its oil. If Iran can't sell its oil, it's going to make sure nobody else can sell theirs without paying a price. According to Reuters, new data from the energy intelligence firm Vortexa indicates that Iran has not exported a single barrel of crude oil so far in October. Now, that's based on tanker tracking data, and it doesn't necessarily capture every shipment, but it represents a remarkable deterioration in Iran's position. We've been tracking the steady decline in Iranian oil exports for months, as the American blockade has squeezed Tehran's most important source of foreign revenue. And remember, this is an economy that was already in serious trouble. Inflation has been running at extraordinary levels, the Iranian currency has lost significant value, and ordinary Iranians are facing increasingly difficult economic conditions. Oil revenue is one of the regime's most important financial lifelines, of course. It helps fund government operations, supports the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various interests, and it's a great way to support the Iranian government. But it's also a great way to support Iran's foreign currency, which Tehran needs to purchase goods from abroad. Now, according to the latest figures, that lifeline has effectively been cut off. But while Iran's own oil shipments have reportedly ground to a halt, Tehran is stepping up its attacks against commercial vessels carrying everybody else's oil, and the scale of those attacks is becoming difficult to ignore. According to the Financial Times, ships operating in and around the Strait of Hormuz are facing the most intense wave of Iranian missile and drone attacks since the war began. The newspaper reports 24 attacks against commercial vessels over a recent two-week period. Six of those attacks occurred on the 11th of October. And the violence isn't confined to the Strait. Additional reporting from The National describes attacks against tankers near the Omani coast, including a drone strike against a vessel near the port of Sohar. The consequences are significant. Shipowners are not allowed to send their vessels through the region, while energy shipments have fallen sharply. According to the Financial Times, approximately 15.5 million barrels of oil pass through Hormuz each day on average in September. On the 11th of October, that figure reportedly dropped to just 2.9 million barrels. Now, that is a comparison between a monthly average and a single day, but it illustrates just how severely the latest attacks are disrupting commercial traffic. And here's what makes this particularly interesting. For months, Iran has been threatening to use its position near the Strait of Hormuz to impose economic costs on Washington and its regional allies. But Tehran's leverage has been weakening as other Gulf producers found ways to restore their exports, while Iran's own shipments continue declining. Now, with Iranian oil exports reportedly at a standstill, the regime appears to be taking a much more aggressive approach. If the U.S. is not willing to sell its oil, the regime seems determined to make the blockade as expensive as possible for everyone else. And not just the Americans, of course. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and other Gulf producers all have enormous economic interests tied to the movement of energy through the region. So do their customers in Asia and elsewhere. By attacking commercial shipping, Iran can threaten those interests, increase the cost of transporting oil, and potentially encourage other governments to pressure Washington, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates. But this is not the end of the game. And from Tehran's perspective, there may be few other options. The regime cannot realistically defeat the U.S. in a conventional military confrontation. Its economy is under extraordinary pressure, and its ability to generate revenue from oil exports has now been severely restricted. But it still possesses missiles and drones and the ability to threaten shipping across one of the world's most important ports. And it's not just the U.S. that's under pressure. It's also under pressure from the U.S. and its allies. And the U.S. and its allies are also under pressure from the U.S. and its allies. And the U.S. and its allies. And the U.S. and its allies. And that gives Iran a way to inflict damage beyond its borders, even as its own economic position continues to deteriorate. Now, every additional attack against a commercial vessel does increase the possibility of a wider military confrontation. And the more damage that Iran inflicts on its neighbor's energy trade, well, the more incentive those governments have to support tougher action against Tehran. And that could prove particularly dangerous, as the U.S. reinforces its military presence in the region, and President Trump weighs another round of strikes after the midterm elections. So, the American blockade appears to be accomplishing what Washington intended, depriving Tehran of oil revenue and placing extraordinary pressure on the regime. But, rather than force them to the negotiating table in a meaningful way, that pressure is making Iran more aggressive. All right, coming up next, Saudi Arabia launches additional airstrikes on Yemen's capital. And Ukraine's president says Western intelligence failed to warrant Kiev about an incoming Russian missile attack. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I've been a business owner for many years, and I want to take just a moment to talk to all of you small business operators out there. Look, here's the thing. Running any small business means dealing with constant unexpected expenses. You know what I'm talking about. Whether it's upgrading an IT system or repair costs or payroll, there's always something. And I'm going to talk to you about that. And you can't afford to let traditional bank red tape slow your momentum. And that's why you need Cardiff, America's favorite small business lender. With over $12 billion, that's with a B, funded to small businesses nationwide, they specialize in high-speed liquidity. 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According to the Associated Press, the Saudi-led coalition carried out the strikes on Tuesday against an installation belonging to the Yemeni oil company in the western part of the city. Before the attack, the coalition issued a warning, telling civilians to evacuate the area. Residents subsequently reported hearing explosions, although the extent of the damage remains unclear. The Iran-backed Houthi-controlled oil company claims its storage tanks, were empty, and that the strikes won't disrupt fuel supplies. But that apparently did little to reassure the local population. Residents began lining up at gas stations, worried that the attacks could lead to shortages. The Houthis, meanwhile, are threatening retaliation. Their military spokesman, Yaya Sari, warned that the Saudi capital could face additional attacks. Now, we've been tracking the Saudi-backed offensive against the Houthis, including the battle for territory near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Saudi-backed forces have reportedly pushed the rebels back from positions immediately overlooking the waterway, but the Houthis remain entrenched elsewhere. Around the city of Taiz, Yemeni authorities say Houthi attacks have killed another six people and wounded 18 more. So, despite the Saudi offensive, the Houthis are continuing to fight on multiple fronts, while demonstrating that they can still threaten targets deep inside Saudi's territory. Meanwhile, we're getting more information about those deadly attacks on Riyadh's international airport. And according to a new Reuters investigation, Saudi Arabia stopped issuing public warnings about incoming missiles and drones days before those strikes. Over the past week, four attacks on Riyadh killed at least 18 people and wounded more than 30. But according to Reuters, the Saudi government's public warning system had gone silent. Beginning in May, Saudi civil defense authorities had been sending alerts to residents through mobile phones and social media whenever missiles or drones threatened the kingdom. The last such Its warning, though, went out on the 29th of September. for nearly two weeks, nothing. No public alerts ahead of the four attacks on Riyadh, including the deadly strike against its international airport. The warnings, though, finally resumed on Monday. Now, here's where the Reuters investigation gets more interesting. According to two officials familiar with the matter, representatives of an allied Western government had asked Saudi authorities why the public alerts had stopped. They were reportedly told that the warnings had become disruptive, with residents complaining about being awakened in the middle of the night. Eh, it's just another missile. Don't bother waking me up. Now, to be clear, Saudi officials have not confirmed that explanation, and Riyadh has offered no public account of why the warnings stopped. Even while Saudi residents were not receiving public alerts, Western embassies in Riyadh were circulating their own warnings to diplomatic personnel, drawing on intelligence and information from Saudi authorities. But, The Reuters reports that even those embassies received no advance warning before Saturday's deadly airport strike. And it's important to distinguish two separate problems here. One is whether Saudi authorities adequately warned civilians about incoming attacks. The other is why the kingdom's sophisticated air defenses failed to stop the weapons before reaching their targets. And together, those failures exposed the larger challenge facing Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is escalating its military campaign in Yemen, hoping to weaken the Iran-backed Houthis and push them out from strategically important territory. But the Houthis don't necessarily have to defeat the Saudi military to inflict serious damage. They can target airports, oil facilities, pipelines, and other infrastructure, forcing Riyadh to defend an enormous amount of territory against weapons that are relatively cheap compared with the systems needed to intercept them. And the damage extends beyond the casualties and destruction. Every successful attack raises questions about Saudi Arabia's ability to protect international airlines, foreign investors, and the economic development projects that are at the center of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plans for the kingdom. Okay, turning to the Ukraine conflict. As relations between President Trump and President Zelensky grow more strained, Kyiv is asking why its partners provided no warning before five Russian ballistic missiles struck the capital. Zelensky says, though, Now, to be clear, Zelensky did not name the partners involved or say Washington had stopped sharing intelligence. But with Kyiv relying so heavily on American intelligence to spot incoming Russian missiles, that did raise an obvious question for the White House. Was the U.S. still providing that support? Asked about the situation Tuesday, Trump said the U.S. has not stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine and continues providing that assistance in the hopes of bringing the war to an end. A senior Ukrainian official suggested the missing warning could have a different explanation. Speaking anonymously, because he was not authorized to comment publicly, the official said it had been described as a, quote, failure, potentially resulting from circumstances such as weather conditions, and the U.S. has not been able to comment publicly about weather conditions, rather than a deliberate decision to stop sharing information. So, intelligence sharing may be continuing, but that still leaves the question of why this warning never came. American systems can detect Russian ballistic missile launches almost immediately. Passing that information to Kyiv gives authorities time to warn civilians and prepare air defenses, including the U.S.-made Patriot systems that Ukraine relies on to intercept incoming missiles. With weapons like Russia's Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, that time is not enough to stop the U.S. from sharing information. So, intelligence sharing may be just a few minutes between launch and impact. Ukraine is already struggling to defend against Moscow's intensified aerial campaign, which combines fast-moving ballistic missiles with high-flying jet-powered drones. It also faces a shortage of Patriot interceptors, partly because the American-led war against Iran has increased demand for those weapons. The missing warning also comes at a difficult moment between Washington and Kyiv. We've been following the latest dispute between Trump and Zelensky over Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries. Trump has repeatedly urged Kyiv to stop those strikes, blaming them for record American diesel prices, well, rather than the war in Iran. Then on Saturday, Trump suggested Ukraine should replace Zelensky with a president more willing to negotiate, accusing him of not doing enough to end the war. Really, how about Putin? To be fair, we've seen Trump and Zelensky go back and forth before, finding common ground on this. But this may be their lowest point since that infamous exchange in the Oval Office back in February of 2025. On Sunday, Trump was presenting what he said was progress toward ending the fighting. He announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate ceasefire on attacks against each other's energy infrastructure. But as we've been tracking here on the PDB, neither side knew about it. Neither side confirmed at the time that a final agreement had been reached, and Russia has yet to publish a statement. Zelensky says Ukraine has not struck Russian oil refineries or other energy facilities in the two days since Trump's announcement, hoping that restraint would bring relief from Russian attacks. That has not happened. He says Moscow, however, has continued attacking Ukrainian energy facilities and infrastructure. According to Zelensky, Russia launched more than 100 drones and missiles overnight into Tuesday. Some were intercepted, but others reached their targets. With winter fast approaching, the consequences of those attacks, well, become more urgent. And in today's back of the brief, there's a vacancy for the top spot at the U.S. Embassy in Greece. Get your resumes sorted out. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a tip on how to jumpstart your day. Now, I've been trying to just how much caffeine I actually need. And that's where Mudwater comes in. That's M-U-D-W-T-R. 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Kimberly Guilfoyle confirmed that she's leaving after the president asked her to resign following weeks of allegations about her finances and conduct. New White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia announced the decision during her first briefing on Tuesday, describing Guilfoyle as, a wonderful asset to the team, and saying the administration wished her well. Now, in case you don't know that, this is Washington, D.C. talk for, don't let the screen door hit you on the way out. That polite send-off from the press secretary stood in sharp contrast to Trump's assessment just one day earlier. Asked about Guilfoyle's conduct by reporters, he said, quote, we're not happy, and acknowledged he was considering removing her. Now, this was someone with years of both political and personal ties to the Trump family. Guilfoyle's a former California prosecutor who became a prominent Trump surrogate and fundraiser. She spent several years in a relationship with Donald Trump Jr., including four during which they were engaged before they publicly announced their split in December of 2024. That's the same month that Trump nominated her to represent the U.S. in Greece. Eh, sorry about the breakup. Here's a consolation prize. Now, the questions surrounding her tenure as ambassador involve money, access, and whose interests she was actually representing. Let's begin with the $100,000 American Express bill. That's a lot of jack. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that shortly before her. confirmation hearing in July of 2025, Guilfoyle asked prominent Trump donor Eric Dieters to pay it off. According to messages reviewed by the Journal, she urged Dieters to wire the money directly to American Express, suggesting that doing so would not leave a paper trail, while also offering to help him gain access to senior Trump administration officials. Oh, that sounds kind of like, I suppose, pay for play. Dieters says he never made the payment, and Guilfoyle disputes the account entirely. Her attorney challenged the authenticity of the messages and offered another explanation. He said Guilfoyle had been paid to speak at events before her nomination and was still, quote, owed a balance for traveling to and supporting these patriotic events, end quote. Both the questions about access did not end with Dieters. An earlier journal investigation reported that Guilfoyle promoted the interests of Actor Group. That's a Greek construction and energy company. It also alleged that she allowed the company's registered lobbyist to accompany her into private diplomatic meetings with senior officials. Now, obviously, an American ambassador is supposed to advance American interests. That's part of the job. A company's lobbyist, though, has a somewhat narrower assignment. And then came accounts of what was happening inside the embassy itself. The Daily Mail reported that the State Department's Office of Inspector General had opened an investigation into allegations involving Guilfoyle's treatment of employees, private travel, acceptance of gifts, and relationships with business interests. Sources cited by the newspaper described a hostile workplace in which Guilfoyle allegedly threatened to fire employees. They also accused her of demoting members of a security detail over relatively minor incidents. One officer was reportedly disciplined after failing to answer a 4 a.m. request for ice while she was vacationing in Mykonos. To be fair, you know, when the mood for ice strikes, it really doesn't matter what time it is. You can't be drinking tepid beverages at 4 in the morning. Come on. Guilfoyle's attorney rejected the allegations, saying, quote, any implication of wrongdoing by the ambassador is unsupported, end quote. Now, the reports naturally drew scrutiny from congressional Democrats, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Guilfoyle. During a visit to Greece last week, he described her as, quote, a strong ambassador. Now, again, that's Washington, D.C. talk for we're about to show up. About to show her the door. By Tuesday, Trump was putting some distance between himself and his ambassador to Greece. He said that Guilfoyle had been doing a good job, quote, but we didn't like what we were reading. Now, to continue my translation assistance for those not familiar with Washington, D.C. talk, that means she gone. In a lengthy post on X, Guilfoyle called serving his ambassador, quote, the honor of a lifetime, thanking Trump and Rubio. She also issued a sweeping denial, quote, these allegations are false, and I intend to vigorously defend my name, my reputation, and my integrity, end quote. So, feel free to polish up your CVs and send them along to the U.S. Department of State. It would be considered a plus if you happen to have geopolitical experience, managerial experience, area knowledge, speak the language, and can do without ice in the wee small hours of the morning. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, the 14th of October. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And finally, if you find yourself with a few minutes on your hands, I hope you'll wander on over to YouTube and check out our not-yet-award-winning YouTube channel. Just search up at President's Daily Brief. And if you like what you see, maybe hit that subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin.